283
4
Sustainable Development
and Equity
Coordinating Lead Authors:
Marc Fleurbaey (France / USA), Sivan Kartha (USA)
Lead Authors:
Simon Bolwig (Denmark), Yoke Ling Chee (Malaysia), Ying Chen (China), Esteve Corbera (Spain),
Franck Lecocq (France), Wolfgang Lutz (IIASA / Austria), Maria Silvia Muylaert (Brazil), Richard B.
Norgaard (USA), Chukwumerije Okereke (Nigeria / UK), Ambuj Sagar (USA / India)
Contributing Authors:
Paul Baer (USA), Donald A. Brown (USA), Josefa Francisco (Philippines), Michael Zwicky Hauschild
(Denmark), Michael Jakob (Germany), Heike Schroeder (Germany / UK), John Thøgersen (Denmark),
Kevin Urama (Nigeria / UK / Kenya)
Review Editors:
Luiz Pinguelli Rosa (Brazil), Matthias Ruth (Germany / USA), Jayant Sathaye (USA)
This chapter should be cited as:
Fleurbaey M., S. Kartha, S. Bolwig, Y. L. Chee, Y. Chen, E. Corbera, F. Lecocq, W. Lutz, M. S. Muylaert, R. B. Norgaard, C. Oker-
eke, and A. D. Sagar, 2014: Sustainable Development and Equity. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change.
Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier,
B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cam-
bridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
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Contents
Executive Summary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 287
4�1 Introduction � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 289
4�1�1 Key messages of previous IPCC reports
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 289
4�1�2 Narrative focus and key messages
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 290
4.1.2.1 Consumption, disparities, and well-being
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
4.1.2.2 Equity at the national and international scales
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
4.1.2.3 Building institutions and capacity for effective governance
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
4�2 Approaches and indicators � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 292
4�2�1 Sustainability and sustainable development (SD)
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 292
4.2.1.1 Defining and measuring sustainability
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
4.2.1.2 Links with climate change and climate policy
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
4�2�2 Equity and its relation to sustainable development and climate change
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 294
4�3 Determinants, drivers and barriers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 296
4�3�1 Legacy of development relations
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 296
4�3�2 Governance and political economy
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 297
4�3�3 Population and demography
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 299
4�3�4 Values and behaviours
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 299
4�3�5 Human and social capital
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 300
4�3�6 Technology
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 301
4�3�7 Natural resources
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 302
4�3�8 Finance and investment
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 303
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4�4 Production, trade, consumption and waste patterns � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 304
4�4�1 Consumption patterns, inequality and environmental impact
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 304
4.4.1.1 Trends in resource consumption
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304
4.4.1.2 Consumerism and unequal consumption levels
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304
4.4.1.3 Effect of non-income factors on per capita carbon footprint
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
4�4�2 Consumption patterns and carbon accounting
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 305
4.4.2.1 Choice of GHG accounting method
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
4.4.2.2 Carbon footprinting (consumption-based GHG emissions accounting)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
4.4.2.3 Product carbon footprinting
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
4.4.2.4 Consumption-based and territorial approaches to GHG accounting
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
4�4�3 Sustainable consumption and production — SCP
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 307
4.4.3.1 Sustainable consumption and lifestyle
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
4.4.3.2 Consumer sustainability attitudes and the relation to behaviour
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
4.4.3.3 Sustainable production
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
4�4�4 Relationship between consumption and well-being
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 310
4�5 Development pathways � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 311
4�5�1 Definition and examples
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 311
4�5�2 Transition between pathways
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 312
4.5.2.1 Path dependence and lock-ins
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
4.5.2.2 Examples and lessons from the technology transition literature
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
4.5.2.3 Economic modelling of transitions between pathways
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314
4�6 Mitigative capacity and mitigation, and links to adaptive capacity and adaptation � � � � � � � � � � � 315
4�6�1 Mitigation and adaptation measures, capacities, and development pathways
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 315
4�6�2 Equity and burden sharing in the c ontext of international cooperation on climate
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 317
4.6.2.1 Equity principles pertinent to burden sharing in an international climate regime
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
4.6.2.2 Frameworks for equitable burden sharing
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
4�7 Integration of framing issues in the context of sustainable development � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 321
4�7�1 Risk and uncertainty in sustainability evaluation
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 321
4�7�2 Socio-economic evaluation
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 321
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4�8 Implications for subsequent chapters � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 322
4�8�1 Three levels of analysis of sustainability consequences of climate policy options
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 322
4�8�2 Sustainability and equity issues in subsequent chapters
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 323
4�9 Gaps in knowledge and data � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 325
4�10 Frequently Asked Questions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 326
References � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 328
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Executive Summary
Since the first assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-
mate Change (IPCC) has considered issues of sustainable development
(SD) and equity: acknowledging the importance to climate decision
making, and progressively expanding the scope to include: the co-
benefits of climate actions for SD and equity, the relevance of lifestyle
and behaviour, the relevance of technological choices, the relevance of
procedural equity to effective decision making, and the relevance of
ethical frameworks and equitable burden sharing in assessing climate
responses. This Assessment Report further explores key dimensions of
SD and equity, highlighting the significance of disparities across dif-
ferent regions and groups, and the ways in which designing a climate
policy is a component of a wide-ranging societal choice of a develop-
ment path. [Section 4.1, 4.2]
Sustainable development, a central framing issue in this Assess-
ment Report, is intimately connected to climate change (high
confidence). SD is variably conceived as development that preserves
the interests of future generations, that preserves the ecosystem ser-
vices on which continued human flourishing depends, or that harmo-
nizes the co-evolution of three pillars (economic, social, environmental)
[4.2]. First, the climate threat constrains possible development paths,
and sufficiently disruptive climate change could preclude any prospect
for a sustainable future (medium evidence, high agreement). Thus, a
stable climate is one component of SD. Second, there are synergies and
tradeoffs between climate responses and broader SD goals, because
some climate responses generate co-benefits for human and economic
development, while others can have adverse side-effects and gener-
ate risks (robust evidence, high agreement). These co-benefits and risks
are studied in the sector chapters of this report, along with measures
and strategies to optimize them. Options for equitable burden sharing
can reduce the potential for the costs of climate action to constrain
development (medium evidence, high agreement). Third, at a more fun-
damental level, the capacities underlying an effective climate response
overlap strongly with capacities for SD (medium evidence, high agree-
ment) and designing an effective climate policy involves ‘mainstream-
ing’ climate in the design of comprehensive SD strategies and thinking
through the general orientation of development (medium evidence,
medium agreement). [4.2, 4.5]
Equity is an integral dimension of SD (high confidence). First,
intergenerational equity underlies the concept of sustainability. Intra-
generational equity is also often considered an intrinsic component of
SD. In the particular context of international climate policy discussions,
several arguments support giving equity an important role: a moral
justification that draws upon ethical principles; a legal justification
that appeals to existing treaty commitments and soft law agreements
to cooperate on the basis of stated equity principles; and an effective-
ness justification that argues that a fair arrangement is more likely to
be agreed internationally and successfully implemented domestically
(medium evidence, medium agreement). A relatively small set of core
equity principles serve as the basis for most discussions of equitable
burden sharing in a climate regime: responsibility (for GHG emissions),
capacity (ability to pay for mitigation, but sometimes other dimensions
of mitigative capacity), the right to development, and equality (often
interpreted as an equal entitlement to emit). [4.2, 4.6]
While it is possible to envision an evolution toward equitable
and sustainable development, its underlying determinants are
also deeply embedded in existing societal patterns that are
unsustainable and highly inertial (high confidence). A useful set
of determinants from which to examine the prospects for and impedi-
ments to SD and equity are: the legacy of development relations; gov-
ernance and political economy; population and demography; values
and behaviour; human and social capital; technology; natural resource
endowments; and finance and investment. The evolution of each of
these determinants as a driver (rather than barrier) to a SD transition
is conceivable, but also poses profound challenges (medium evidence,
medium agreement). [4.3]
Governing a transition toward an effective climate response
and SD pathway is a challenge involving rethinking our relation
to nature, accounting for multiple generations and interests
(including those based on endowments in natural resources),
overlapping environmental issues, among actors with widely
unequal capacities, resources, and political power, and diver-
gent conceptions of justice (high confidence). Key debated issues
include articulating top-down and bottom-up approaches, engaging
participation of diverse countries and actors, creating procedurally
equitable forms of decentralization and combining market mecha-
nisms with government action, all in a particular political economic
context (robust evidence, high agreement). [4.3]
Technology and finance both are strong determinants of future
societal paths, and while society’s current systems of allocat-
ing resources and prioritizing efforts toward investment and
innovation are in many ways robust and dynamic, there are
also some fundamental tensions with the underlying objec-
tives of SD (high confidence). First, the technological innovation and
financial systems are highly responsive to short-term motivations, and
are sensitive to broader social and environmental costs and benefits
only to the — often limited — extent that these costs and benefits are
internalized by regulation, taxation, laws and social norms. Second,
while these systems are quite responsive to market demand that is
supported by purchasing power, they are only indirectly responsive to
needs, particularly of those of the world’s poor, and they operate with
a time horizon that disregards potential needs of future generations
(medium evidence, medium agreement). [4.3]
Enhancing human capital based on individual knowledge and
skills, and social capital based on mutually beneficial formal
and informal relationships is important for facilitating a tran-
sition toward sustainable development (medium evidence, high
agreement). ‘Social dilemmas’ arise in which short-term individual
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interests conflict with long-term social interests, with altruistic values
being favourable to SD. However, the formation of values and their
translation into behaviours is mediated by many factors, including the
available set of market choices and lifestyles, the tenor of dominant
information sources (including advertisements and popular culture),
the culture and priorities of formal and civil institutions, and prevailing
governance mode (medium evidence, medium agreement). The demo-
graphic transition toward low fertility rates is usually viewed favorably,
though an ageing population creates economic and social challenges,
and migrations due to climate impacts may exacerbate tensions
(medium evidence, medium agreement). [4.3, 4.4]
The global consumption of goods and services has increased
dramatically over the last decades, in both absolute and per
capita terms, and is a key driver of environmental degradation,
including global warming (high confidence). This trend involves
the spread of high-consumption lifestyles in some countries and sub-
regions, while in other parts of the world large populations continue to
live in poverty. There are high disparities in consumption both between
and within countries (robust evidence, high agreement). [4.4]
Two basic types of decoupling are often invoked in the context
of a transition toward sustainable development: the decoupling
of material resource consumption (including fossil fuels) and
environmental impact (including climate change) from economic
growth, and the decoupling of economic growth from human
well-being (high confidence). The first type — the dematerialization of
the economy, i. e., of consumption and production — is generally con-
sidered crucial for meeting SD and equity goals, including mitigation of
climate change. Production-based (territorial) accounting suggests that
some decoupling of impacts from economic growth has occurred, espe-
cially in industrialized countries, but its extent is significantly dimin-
ished based on a consumption-based accounting (robust evidence,
medium agreement). Consumption-based emissions are more strongly
associated with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) than production-based
emissions, because wealthier countries generally satisfy a higher share
of their final consumption of products through net imports compared to
poorer countries. Ultimately, absolute levels of resource use and envi-
ronmental impact — including GHG emissions — generally continue to
rise with GDP (robust evidence, high agreement), though great varia-
tions between countries highlight the importance of other factors such
as geography, energy system, production methods, waste management,
household size, diet and lifestyle. The second type of decoupling — of
human well-being from economic growth — is a more controversial
goal than the first. There are ethical controversies about the measure
of well-being and the use of subjective data for this purpose (robust
evidence, medium agreement). There are also empirical controversies
about the relationship between subjective well-being and income,
with some recent studies across countries finding a clear relationship
between average levels of life satisfaction and per capita income,
while the evidence about the long-term relationship between satisfac-
tion and income is less conclusive and quite diverse among countries
(medium evidence, medium agreement). Studies of emotional well-
being do identify clear satiation points beyond which further increases
in income no longer enhance emotional well-being (medium evidence,
medium agreement). Furthermore, income inequality has been found to
have a marked negative effect on average subjective well-being, due to
perceived unfairness and undermined trust of institutions among low
income groups (medium evidence, medium agreement). [4.4]
Understanding the impact of development paths on emissions
and mitigative capacity, and, more generally, how development
paths can be made more sustainable and more equitable in the
future requires in-depth analysis of the mechanisms that under-
pin these paths (high confidence). Of particular importance are the
processes that may generate path dependence and lock-ins, notably
‘increasing returns’ but also use of scarce resources, switching costs,
negative externalities or complementarities between outcomes (robust
evidence, high agreement). [4.5, 4.6] The study of transitions between
pathways is an emerging field, notably in the context of technology
transitions. Yet analyzing how to transition to a sustainable, low-emis-
sion pathway remains a major scientific challenge. It would be aided
by models with a holistic framework encompassing the economy, soci-
ety (in particular the distribution of resources and well-being), and the
environment, that take account of relevant technical constraints and
trends, and explore a long-term horizon while simultaneously captur-
ing processes relevant for the short-term and the key uncertainties
(medium evidence, medium agreement). [4.5, 4.7]
Mitigation and adaptation measures can strongly affect broader
SD and equity objectives, and it is thus useful to understand
their broader implications (high confidence). Building both mitiga-
tive capacity and adaptive capacity relies to a profound extent on the
same factors as those that are integral to equitable and sustainable
development (medium evidence, high agreement), and equitable bur-
den sharing can enhance these capacities where they are most fragile
[4.6]. This chapter focuses on examining ways in which the broader
objectives of equitable and sustainable development provide a policy
frame for an effective, robust, and long-term response to the climate
problem. [4.8]
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4.1 Introduction
4�1�1 Key messages of previous IPCC reports
This chapter seeks to place climate change, and climate change mitiga-
tion in particular, in the context of equity and SD. Prior IPCC assess-
ments have sought to do this as well, progressively expanding the
scope of assessment to include broader and more insightful reflections
on the policy-relevant contributions of academic literature.
The IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR) (IPCC, 1990) underscored the
relevance of equity and SD to climate policy. Mandated to identify
“possible elements for inclusion in a framework convention on cli-
mate change”, the IPCC prominently put forward the “endorsement
and elaboration of the concept of sustainable development” for nego-
tiators to consider as part of the Convention’s Preamble. It noted as
key issues “how to address equitably the consequences for all” and
“whether obligations should be equitably differentiated according to
countries’ respective responsibilities for causing and combating cli-
mate change and their level of development”. This set the stage for
the ensuing United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) negotiations, which ultimately included explicit appeals to
equity and SD, including in its Preamble, its Principles (Article 2), its
Objective (Article 3), and its Commitments (Article 4).
The IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) (IPCC, 1995), published
after the UNFCCC was signed, maintained this focus on equity and SD.
It reflected a growing appreciation for the prospects for SD co-benefits
and reiterated the policy relevance of equity and SD. It did this most
visibly in a special section of the Summary for Policymakers present-
ing “Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UNFCCC”,
including “Equity and social considerations” and “Economic develop-
ment to proceed in a sustainable manner”. Notably, the SAR added
an emphasis on procedural equity through a legitimate process that
empowers all actors to effectively participate, and on the need to build
capacities and strengthen institutions, particularly in developing coun-
tries.
The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC, 2000)
demonstrated that broader SD goals can contribute indirectly, yet
substantially, to reducing emissions. This IPCC contribution reflected
a change in the scientific literature, which had in recent years
expanded its discussion of SD to encompass analyses of lifestyles,
culture, and behaviour, complementing its traditional techno-eco-
nomic analyses. It also reflected a recognition that economic growth
(especially as currently measured) is not the sole goal of societies.
The SRES thus provided insights into how policy intervention can
decouple economic growth from emissions and well-being from eco-
nomic growth, showing that both forms of decoupling are important
elements of a transition to a world with low greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions.
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) (IPCC, 2001) deepened the
consideration of broader SD objectives in assessing response strate-
gies. Perhaps owing to a growing appreciation for the severity of the
climate challenge, the TAR stressed the need for an ambitious and
encompassing response, and was thus more attentive to the risk of
climate-focused measures conflicting with basic development aspira-
tions. It thus articulated the fundamental equity challenge of climate
change as ensuring “that neither the impact of climate change nor
that of mitigation policies exacerbates existing inequities both within
and across nations”, specifically because “restrictions on emissions
will continue to be viewed by many people in developing countries
as yet another constraint on the development process” (See Box 4.1
for further discussion of the relationship between climate change and
development challenges in developing countries.). The TAR recognized
the need to deepen the analysis of equitable burden sharing in order
to avoid undermining prospects for SD in developing countries. More
generally, the TAR observed that equitable burden sharing is not solely
an ethical matter. Even from a rational-actor game-theoretic perspec-
tive, an agreement in which the burden is equitably shared is more
likely to be signed by a large number of countries, and thus to be more
effective and efficient.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (IPCC, 2007) further
expanded the consideration of broader SD objectives. It stressed
the importance of civil society and other non-government actors in
designing climate policy and equitable SD strategies generally. The
AR4 focused more strongly on the distributional implications of cli-
mate policies, noting that conventional climate policy analysis that
is based too narrowly on traditional utilitarian or cost-benefit frame-
works will neglect critical equity issues. These oversights include
human rights implications and moral imperatives; the distribution of
costs and benefits of a given set of policies, and the further distri-
butional inequities that arise when the poor have limited scope to
influence policy. This is particularly problematic, the AR4 notes, in
integrated assessment model (IAM) analyses of ‘optimal’ mitigation
pathways, because climate impacts do not affect the poor exclusively
through changes in incomes. Nor do they satisfactorily account for
uncertainty and risk, which the poor treat differently than the rich.
The poor have higher risk aversion and lower access to assets and
financial mechanisms that buffer against shocks. The AR4 went on
to outline alternative ethical frameworks including rights-based and
capabilities-based approaches, suggesting how they can inform cli-
mate policy decisions. In particular, the AR4 discussed the implica-
tions of these different frameworks for equitable international bur-
den sharing.
The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate
Change Mitigation (SRREN) (IPCC, 2011) deepened the consideration
of broader SD objectives in assessing renewable energy options, not-
ing particularly that while synergies can arise (for example, helping
to expand access to energy services, increase energy security, and
reduce some environmental pressures), there can also be tradeoffs
(such as increased pressure on land resources, and affordability) and
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these must be negotiated in a manner sensitive to equity consider-
ations.
The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events
and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) (IPCC
2012a) highlighted key further dimensions of SD and equity, including
the distinction and interplay between incremental and transformative
changes — both of which are necessary for an effective climate policy
response, and emphasized the diversity of values that underlie deci-
sion making, e. g., a human rights framework vs. utilitarian cost-benefit
analysis.
4�1�2 Narrative focus and key messages
In keeping with the previous IPCC assessments, this chapter considers
SD and equity as matters of policy relevance for climate change deci-
sion makers. The chapter examines the ways in which climate change
is in fact inextricably linked with SD and equity, and it does so with the
aim of drawing policy-relevant conclusions regarding equitable and
sustainable responses to climate change.
In one direction, the link is self-evident: an effective climate response
is necessary for equitable and sustainable development to occur. The
disruptions that climate change would cause in the absence of an
effective societal response are sufficiently severe (see Working Group
(WG) I and II contributions to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5))
to severely compromise development, even taking into account future
societies’ ability to adapt (Shalizi and Lecocq, 2010). Nor is this devel-
opment likely to be equitable, as an increasingly inhospitable climate
will most seriously undermine the future prospects of those nations,
communities, and individuals that are in greatest need of develop-
ment. Without an effective response to climate change, including both
timely mitigation and proactive adaptation, development can be nei-
ther sustainable nor equitable.
In recent years, the academic community has come increasingly to
appreciate the extent to which SD and equity are also needed as
frameworks for assessing and prioritizing climate responses: given
the strong tradeoffs and synergies between the options for a climate
response and SD, the design of an effective climate response must
accord with the objectives for development and equity and exploit the
synergies. A climate strategy that does not do so runs the risk either of
being ineffective for lack of consensus and earnest implementation or
of jeopardizing SD just as would unabated climate change. Therefore,
a shift toward more equitable and sustainable modes of development
may provide the only context in which an effective climate response
can be realized.
The scientific community is coming to understand that climate change
is but one example of how humankind is pressing up against its plane-
tary limits (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Rockström etal.,
2009a). Technical measures can certainly help in the near-term to alle-
viate climate change. However, the comprehensive and durable strate-
gies society needs are those that recognize that climate change shares
its root causes with other dimensions of the global sustainability crisis,
and that without addressing these root causes, robust solutions may
not be accessible.
This chapter, and many parts of this report, uncovers ways in which a
broader agenda of SD and equity may support and enable an effective
societal response to the climate challenge, by establishing the basis
by which mitigative and adaptive capacity can be built and sustained.
In examining this perspective, this chapter focuses on several broad
themes.
4�1�2�1 Consumption, disparities, and well-being
The first theme relates to well-being and consumption. The relationship
between consumption levels and environmental pressures, including
GHG emissions, has long been a key concern for SD, with a growing
focus on high-consumption lifestyles in particular and consumption
disparities. A significant part of the literature develops methodologies
for assessing the environmental impacts across national boundaries
of consumption, through consumption-based accounting and GHG
footprint analysis. Important research is now also emerging on the
relationship between well-being and consumption, and how to moder-
ate consumption and its impacts without hindering well-being — and
indeed, while enhancing it. More research is now available on the
importance of behaviour, lifestyles, and culture, and their relationship
to over-consumption (Sections 4.3, 4.4).
Research is emerging to help understand ‘under-consumption’, i. e.,
poverty and deprivation, and its impacts on well-being more broadly,
and specifically on the means by which it undermines mitigative and
adaptive capacity (WGII Chapter 20). Energy poverty is one critical
example, linked directly to climate change, of under-consumption that
is well-correlated with weakened livelihoods, lack of resilience, and
limited mitigative and adaptive capacity. Overcoming under-consump-
tion and reversing over-consumption, while maintaining and advanc-
ing human well-being, are fundamental dimensions of SD, and are
equally critical to resolving the climate problem (Sections 4.5, 4.6).
4�1�2�2 Equity at the national and international scales
Given the disparities evident in consumption patterns, the distributional
implications of climate response strategies are critically important. As
recent history shows, understanding how policies affect different seg-
ments of the population is essential to designing and implementing
politically acceptable and effective national climate response strat-
egies. A transition perceived as just would attract a greater level of
public support for the substantial techno-economic, institutional, and
lifestyle shifts needed to reduce emissions substantially and enable
adaptive responses.
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At the international level, an equitable regime with fair burden shar-
ing is likely to be a key condition for an effective global response (Sec-
tions 4.2, 4.6). Given the urgency of the climate challenge, a rather
rapid transition will be required if the global temperature rise is to
remain below the politically discussed targets, such as 1.5 °C or 2 °C
over pre-industrial levels, with global emissions possibly peaking as
soon as 2020 (see WGI, Figure 6.25). Particularly in a situation calling
for a concerted global effort, the most promising response is a coop-
erative approach “that would quickly require humanity to think like a
society of people, not like a collection of individual states” (Victor,
1998).
While scientific assessments cannot define what equity is and how
equitable burden sharing should be implementing the Convention and
climate policies in general, they can help illuminate the implications of
alternative choices and their ethical basis (Section 4.6, also Sections
3.2, 3.3, 6.3.6, 13.4.3).
Box 4�1 | Sustainable development and climate change mitigation in developing countries
The interconnectedness of climate change, sustainable develop-
ment, and equity poses serious challenges for developing coun-
tries but it also presents opportunities.
Developing countries are confronted by a daunting mitigation
challenge in the midst of pressing development needs. Developing
country emissions comprised more than half of global emissions
in 2010, and grew during the preceding decade by an amount
that accounted for the total global emissions rise (JRC / PBL (2013),
IEA (2012a), see Annex II.9; see Section 5.2). In the absence of
concerted mitigation actions, the coming decades would see this
trend prolonged, with a continued growth in global emissions
driven predominantly by developing countries’ rising emis-
sions (see Section 6.3). This trend is the unsurprising outcome
of the recent economic growth in many developing countries.
The increase in emissions coincided with a number of positive
developments: over the past decade, the overall poverty rate has
declined, maternal and child mortality have fallen, the prevalence
of several preventable diseases has decreased, and access to safe
drinking water and sanitation has expanded, while the Human
Development Index (HDI) across nations has risen and its conver-
gence has become more pronounced. This “rise of the South” has
been termed “unprecedented in its speed and scale [...] affecting
a hundred times as many people as the Industrial Revolution”
and setting in motion a “dramatic rebalancing” of economic and
geopolitical forces (United Nations, 2011a; United Nations Devel-
opment Programme, 2013).
Notwithstanding these gains, further developmental progress is
urgently needed throughout the developing world. More than
1.5 billion people remain in multi-dimensional poverty, energy
insecurity is still widespread, inequality of income and access to
social services is persistently high, and the environmental resource
base on which humans rely is deteriorating in multiple ways (Mil-
lennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Bazilian etal., 2010; United
Nations Development Programme, 2013). Moreover, unavoid-
able climate change will amplify the challenges of development:
climate impacts are expected to slow economic growth and
exacerbate poverty, and current failures to address emerging
impacts are already eroding the basis for sustainable development
(WGII SPM).
Thus, the challenge confronting developing countries is to preserve
and build on the developmental achievements to date, sharing
them broadly and equitably across their populations, but to do so
via a sustainable development pathway that does not reproduce
the fossil-fuel based and emissions-intensive conventional pathway
by which the developed world moved from poverty to prosperity.
Faced with this dilemma, developing countries have sought evi-
dence that such alternative development pathways exist, looking
in particular to developed countries to take the lead during the two
decades since the UNFCCC was negotiated. Some such evidence
has emerged, in the form of a variety of incipient climate policy
experiments (see Section 15.6, 15.7) that appear to have generated
some innovation in low-carbon technologies (see Section 4.4) and
modestly curbed emissions in some countries (see Section 5.3).
Developing countries have stepped forward with significant
actions to address climate change, but will need to build miti-
gative and adaptive capacity if they are to respond yet more
effectively (see Section 4.6). More broadly, the underlying determi-
nants of development pathways in developing countries are often
not aligned toward a sustainable pathway (see Sections 4.3, 4.5).
At the same time, developing countries are in some ways well-
positioned to shift toward sustainable pathways: most developing
countries are still in the process of building their urban and indus-
trial infrastructure and can avoid lock-in (see Sections 4.5, 5.6).
Many are also in the process of establishing the cultural norms
and lifestyles of an emerging middle class, and can do so without
reproducing the consumerist values of many developed countries
(4.3, 4.4). Some barriers, such as lack of access to financial and
technological resources, can be overcome through international
cooperation based on principles of equity and fair burden sharing
(see Sections 4.6, 6.3).
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4�1�2�3 Building institutions and capacity for effective
governance
While there is strong evidence that a transition to a sustainable and
equitable path is technically feasible (see Sections 6.1.2, 6.3), chart-
ing an effective and viable course through the climate challenge is not
merely a technical exercise. It will involve myriad and sequential deci-
sions, among states and civil society actors, supported by the broad-
est possible constituencies (Section 4.3). Such a process benefits from
the education and empowerment of diverse actors to participate in
systems of decision making that are designed and implemented with
procedural equity as a deliberate objective. This applies at the national
as well as international levels, where effective governance relating to
global common resources, in particular, is not yet mature.
Any given approach to addressing the climate challenge has poten-
tial winners and losers. The political feasibility of that approach will
depend strongly on the distribution of power, resources, and decision-
making authority among the potential winners and losers. In a world
characterized by profound disparities, procedurally equitable systems
of engagement, decision making, and governance appear needed to
enable a polity to come to equitable and sustainable solutions to the
sustainable development challenge.
4.2 Approaches and
indicators
This section maps out the various conceptual approaches to the issues
of SD (4.2.1), equity (4.2.2), and their linkages to climate change and
climate policy.
4�2�1 Sustainability and sustainable
development (SD)
4�2�1�1 Defining and measuring sustainability
The most frequently quoted definition of SD is “development that
meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs”, from the Brundtland
Report (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987).
This definition acknowledges a tension between sustainability and
development (Jabareen, 2006), and that development objectives aim
at meeting basic needs for all citizens and securing them in a sustain-
able manner (Murdiyarso, 2010). One of the first definitions of SD
(Prescott-Allen, 1980) refers to a development process that is compat-
ible with the preservation of ecosystems and species.
A popular conceptualization of SD goes beyond securing needs
and preserving the environment and involves three ‘pillars’ or three
‘bottom-lines’ of sustainability: environmental, economic, and social
aspects (Dobson, 1991; Elkington, 1998; Flint and Danner, 2001; Pope
etal., 2004; Sneddon etal., 2006; Murdiyarso, 2010; Okereke, 2011).
There is some variation in the articulation of the three spheres, with
some scholars arguing for an equal appraisal of their co-evolution and
mutual interactions, and others positing a hierarchy with economic
activities embedded in the social matrix, which is itself grounded in the
ecosphere (Levin, 2000; Fischer etal., 2007). This broad SD framework
is equally relevant for rich countries concerned with growth, well-
being, human development, and lifestyles.
A well-known distinction opposes weak sustainability to strong sus-
tainability approaches (Neumayer, 2010). The former relies on the
assumption that human-made capital can replace natural resources
and ecosystem services with a high degree of substitutability. Strong
sustainability, in contrast, takes the view that certain critical natu-
ral stocks — such as the climate system and biodiversity — cannot
be replaced by human-made capital and must be maintained. Weak
sustainability is often believed to be inherent to economic modelling
that aggregates all forms of capital together (Dietz and Neumayer,
2007), but economic models and indicators can accommodate any
degree of substitutability between different forms of capital (Fleur-
baey and Blanchet, 2013). The linkage between strong sustainabil-
ity and IAMs is discussed in Sathaye etal. (2011). A different but
related issue is whether one should evaluate development paths only
in terms of human well-being, which depends on the environment
services (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005), or also account
for natural systems as intrinsically valuable (McShane, 2007; Attfield,
2008).
Sustainability is closely related to resilience (WII AR5 2.5 and
20.2 – 20.6; Folke etal., 2010; Gallopin, 2006; Goerner etal., 2009) and
vulnerability (Kates, 2001; Clark and Dickson, 2003; IPCC, 2012a). A
key premise of this direction of research is that social and biophysi-
cal processes are interdependent and co-evolving (Polsky and Eakin,
2011). The biosphere itself is a complex adaptive system, the monitor-
ing of which is still perfectible (Levin, 2000; Thuiller, 2007). Critical per-
spectives on these concepts, when applied to SD analysis, can be found
in Turner (2010) and Cannon and Müller-Mahn (2010).
Although there are various conceptions of sustainability in the litera-
ture, there are internationally agreed principles of SD adopted by
heads of states and governments at the 1992 UN Conference on Envi-
ronment and Development (UNCED) and reaffirmed at subsequent
review and implementation conferences (United Nations, 1992a, 1997,
2002, 2012a). A key guiding principle is: “The right to development
must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environ-
mental needs of present and future generations” (1992 Rio Declara-
tion Principle 3). The Rio principles were reaffirmed at the June 2012
summit level UN Conference on SD.
Box 4�2 | Sustainable development indicators (SDI)
When SD became a prominent consideration in policymaking in
the early 1990s, SDI initiatives flourished. Pressure-state-response
(PSR) and capital accounting-based (CAB) frameworks, in particu-
lar, were widely used to assess sustainability. The PSR approach
was further modified as driving force-state-response (DSR) by the
United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD)
(2001) and driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR)
by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (UNEP,
1997, 2000, 2002). The System of Integrated Environmental-Eco-
nomic Accounting (SEEA) of the United Nations offers a wealth of
information about the state of ecosystems and is currently under
revision and expansion.
1
The CAB approach is embodied in the
Adjusted Net Savings indicator of the World Bank (2003, 2011),
which is mentioned in Section 4.3 and 14.1 of this report. It is
based on the economic theory of ‘genuine savings’ (understood as
the variation of all natural and man-made capital stocks, evaluated
at certain specific accounting prices), which shows that on a path
that maximizes the discounted utilitarian sum, a negative value for
genuine savings implies that the current level of well-being is not
sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999; Pezzey, 2004).
General presentations and critical assessments of SDIs can be
found in a large literature (Daly, 1996; Aronsson etal., 1997;
1
Documentation is available at http: / / unstats.un.org / unsd / envaccounting /
seea.asp.
Pezzey and Toman, 2002; Lawn, 2003; Hamilton and Atkinson,
2006; Asheim, 2007; Dietz and Neumayer, 2007; Neumayer,
2010; Martinet, 2012; Mori and Christodoulou, 2012; Fleurbaey
and Blanchet, 2013). This literature is pervaded by a concern
for comprehensiveness — i. e., recording all important aspects of
well-being, equity, and nature preservation for current and future
generations — and accuracy — i. e., avoiding arbitrary or unreliable
weighting of the relevant dimensions when synthesizing multidi-
mensional information. The general conclusion of this literature
is that there is currently no satisfactory empirical indicator of
sustainability.
A limitation of the PSR model is that it fails to identify causal
relations, and it oversimplifies the links between dimensions.
It is moreover based upon aggregate indices, which lose much
information contained in the underlying indicators. An important
limitation of the SEEA is that social and institutional issues are
essentially left out, and its stock-and-flow approach is problematic
with respect to environmental and social aspects that do not have
a market price. Similarly, computing CAB indicators compounds
the difficulty of comprehensively estimating the evolution of capi-
tal stocks with the difficulty of computing the accounting prices.
Market prices do provide relevant information for valuing capital
stocks in a perfectly managed economy (as shown by Weitzman,
1976), but may be very misleading in actual conditions (Dasgupta
and Mäler, 2000; Arrow etal., 2012).
293293
Sustainable Development and Equity
4
Chapter 4
4�2�1�2 Links with climate change and climate policy
The literature on the complex relations between climate change, cli-
mate policies, and SD is large (Swart etal., 2003; Robinson etal., 2006;
Bizikova etal., 2007; Sathaye etal., 2007; Thuiller, 2007; Akimoto etal.,
2012; Janetos etal., 2012). The links between SD and climate issues
are examined in detail in WGII Chapter 20. Mapping out these links is
also important in this WGIII report, and is done in this section.
Three main linkages can be identified, each of which contains many
elements. First, the climate threat constrains possible development
paths, and sufficiently disruptive climate change could preclude any
prospect for sustainable future (WGII Chapter 19). In this perspective,
an effective climate response is necessarily an integral objective of an
SD strategy.
Second, there are tradeoffs between climate responses and broader SD
goals, because some climate responses can impose other environmen-
tal pressures, have adverse distributional effects, draw resources away
from other developmental priorities, or otherwise impose limitations
on growth and development (Sections 4.6, 7.11, 8.9, 9.9, 10.10, 11.9,
12.8). Section 4.4 examines how to avoid such tradeoffs by changing
behavioural patterns and decoupling emissions and growth, and / or
decoupling growth and well-being.
Third, there are multiple potential synergies between climate responses
and broader SD objectives. Climate responses may generate co-bene-
fits for human and economic development (Sections 3.6, 4.8, 6.6, 7.9,
8.7, 9.7, 10.8, 11.7). At a more fundamental level, capacities underly-
ing an effective climate response overlap strongly with capacities for
SD (Sections 4.6, 5.3).
A key message of this report is that designing a successful climate pol-
icy may require going beyond a narrow focus on mitigation and adap-
tation, beyond the analysis of a few co-benefits of climate policy, and
may instead require ‘mainstreaming’ climate issues into the design of
comprehensive SD strategies, including at local and regional levels. Fig-
ure 4.1 illustrates the different perspectives from which climate policy
can be envisioned. In the broadest, boldest perspective, the choice of
the development path (see Sections 4.5, 6.1) is at stake.
A popular conceptualization of SD goes beyond securing needs
and preserving the environment and involves three ‘pillars’ or three
‘bottom-lines’ of sustainability: environmental, economic, and social
aspects (Dobson, 1991; Elkington, 1998; Flint and Danner, 2001; Pope
etal., 2004; Sneddon etal., 2006; Murdiyarso, 2010; Okereke, 2011).
There is some variation in the articulation of the three spheres, with
some scholars arguing for an equal appraisal of their co-evolution and
mutual interactions, and others positing a hierarchy with economic
activities embedded in the social matrix, which is itself grounded in the
ecosphere (Levin, 2000; Fischer etal., 2007). This broad SD framework
is equally relevant for rich countries concerned with growth, well-
being, human development, and lifestyles.
A well-known distinction opposes weak sustainability to strong sus-
tainability approaches (Neumayer, 2010). The former relies on the
assumption that human-made capital can replace natural resources
and ecosystem services with a high degree of substitutability. Strong
sustainability, in contrast, takes the view that certain critical natu-
ral stocks — such as the climate system and biodiversity — cannot
be replaced by human-made capital and must be maintained. Weak
sustainability is often believed to be inherent to economic modelling
that aggregates all forms of capital together (Dietz and Neumayer,
2007), but economic models and indicators can accommodate any
degree of substitutability between different forms of capital (Fleur-
baey and Blanchet, 2013). The linkage between strong sustainabil-
ity and IAMs is discussed in Sathaye etal. (2011). A different but
related issue is whether one should evaluate development paths only
in terms of human well-being, which depends on the environment
services (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005), or also account
for natural systems as intrinsically valuable (McShane, 2007; Attfield,
2008).
Sustainability is closely related to resilience (WII AR5 2.5 and
20.2 – 20.6; Folke etal., 2010; Gallopin, 2006; Goerner etal., 2009) and
vulnerability (Kates, 2001; Clark and Dickson, 2003; IPCC, 2012a). A
key premise of this direction of research is that social and biophysi-
cal processes are interdependent and co-evolving (Polsky and Eakin,
2011). The biosphere itself is a complex adaptive system, the monitor-
ing of which is still perfectible (Levin, 2000; Thuiller, 2007). Critical per-
spectives on these concepts, when applied to SD analysis, can be found
in Turner (2010) and Cannon and Müller-Mahn (2010).
Although there are various conceptions of sustainability in the litera-
ture, there are internationally agreed principles of SD adopted by
heads of states and governments at the 1992 UN Conference on Envi-
ronment and Development (UNCED) and reaffirmed at subsequent
review and implementation conferences (United Nations, 1992a, 1997,
2002, 2012a). A key guiding principle is: “The right to development
must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environ-
mental needs of present and future generations” (1992 Rio Declara-
tion Principle 3). The Rio principles were reaffirmed at the June 2012
summit level UN Conference on SD.
Box 4�2 | Sustainable development indicators (SDI)
When SD became a prominent consideration in policymaking in
the early 1990s, SDI initiatives flourished. Pressure-state-response
(PSR) and capital accounting-based (CAB) frameworks, in particu-
lar, were widely used to assess sustainability. The PSR approach
was further modified as driving force-state-response (DSR) by the
United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD)
(2001) and driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR)
by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (UNEP,
1997, 2000, 2002). The System of Integrated Environmental-Eco-
nomic Accounting (SEEA) of the United Nations offers a wealth of
information about the state of ecosystems and is currently under
revision and expansion.
1
The CAB approach is embodied in the
Adjusted Net Savings indicator of the World Bank (2003, 2011),
which is mentioned in Section 4.3 and 14.1 of this report. It is
based on the economic theory of ‘genuine savings’ (understood as
the variation of all natural and man-made capital stocks, evaluated
at certain specific accounting prices), which shows that on a path
that maximizes the discounted utilitarian sum, a negative value for
genuine savings implies that the current level of well-being is not
sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999; Pezzey, 2004).
General presentations and critical assessments of SDIs can be
found in a large literature (Daly, 1996; Aronsson etal., 1997;
1
Documentation is available at http: / / unstats.un.org / unsd / envaccounting /
seea.asp.
Pezzey and Toman, 2002; Lawn, 2003; Hamilton and Atkinson,
2006; Asheim, 2007; Dietz and Neumayer, 2007; Neumayer,
2010; Martinet, 2012; Mori and Christodoulou, 2012; Fleurbaey
and Blanchet, 2013). This literature is pervaded by a concern
for comprehensiveness — i. e., recording all important aspects of
well-being, equity, and nature preservation for current and future
generations — and accuracy — i. e., avoiding arbitrary or unreliable
weighting of the relevant dimensions when synthesizing multidi-
mensional information. The general conclusion of this literature
is that there is currently no satisfactory empirical indicator of
sustainability.
A limitation of the PSR model is that it fails to identify causal
relations, and it oversimplifies the links between dimensions.
It is moreover based upon aggregate indices, which lose much
information contained in the underlying indicators. An important
limitation of the SEEA is that social and institutional issues are
essentially left out, and its stock-and-flow approach is problematic
with respect to environmental and social aspects that do not have
a market price. Similarly, computing CAB indicators compounds
the difficulty of comprehensively estimating the evolution of capi-
tal stocks with the difficulty of computing the accounting prices.
Market prices do provide relevant information for valuing capital
stocks in a perfectly managed economy (as shown by Weitzman,
1976), but may be very misleading in actual conditions (Dasgupta
and Mäler, 2000; Arrow etal., 2012).
294294
Sustainable Development and Equity
4
Chapter 4
4�2�2 Equity and its relation to sustainable
development and climate change
Equity is prominent in research and policy debates about SD and cli-
mate, both as distributive equity (distribution of resources in contexts
such as burden sharing, distribution of well-being in the broader context
of social justice, see Sections 3.3, 4.4, 4.6) and procedural equity (par-
ticipation in decision making, see Section 4.3). Various aspects of the
general concept, as developed in social ethics, are introduced in Section
3.2 under the name of fairness and justice. (In this chapter the terms
equity, fairness, and justice are not distinguished but are used according
to common usage depending on context). The aim of this subsection is
to analyze the links between equity, SD, and climate issues.
Equity between generations underlies the very notion of SD. Figure 4.2,
a variant of a figure from Howarth and Norgaard (1992), illustrates sus-
tainability as the possibility for future generations to reach at least the
same level of well-being as the current generation. It shows in particu-
lar that sustainability is a matter of distributive equity, not of efficiency,
even if eliminating inefficiencies affecting future sustainable well-being
may improve sustainability, as stressed in Grubb etal. (2013).
There has been a recent surge of research on intergenerational equity,
motivated by dissatisfaction with the tradition of discounting the utility
of future generations in the analysis of growth paths (see, e. g., Asheim
(2007), Roemer and Suzumura (2002) for recent syntheses). The debate
on discounting is reviewed in Section 3.6.2. Recent literature presents
new arguments deriving the imperative of sustaining well-being across
generations from more basic equity principles (Asheim etal., 2001, 2012).
Equity within every generation is often considered an intrinsic compo-
nent of SD linked to the social pillar. The Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs) may be seen as one indication of a more explicit global
commitment to the social pillar (United Nations, 2000). Yet, the rela-
tion between equity within generations and SD is complex. Attempting
to meet the needs of the world’s poor by proliferating the consumption
patterns and production processes of the world’s richest populations
would be unsustainable (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005;
Rockström etal., 2009b; Steffen etal., 2011; IPCC, 2014). Such a sce-
nario would not likely play out well for the world’s poor. Environmental
issues are interwoven with the fabric of racial, social, and economic
injustice. Environmental costs and benefits are often distributed so
that those who already suffer other socio-economic disadvantages
tend to bear the greatest burden (Okereke, 2011).
Figure 4.3 illustrates the normative framework in which a SD path can
be grounded on certain values (well-being, equity) and interrelated
goals (development and conservation), and the synergies and tradeoffs
between SD and climate policy, with procedural equity and iterative
learning nurturing each step, from conceptualization to implementation.
In the rest of this section, we focus on one key dimension of equity
that is of central importance to international negotiations toward an
effective global response to climate change. As in many other contexts,
fundamental questions of resource allocation and burden sharing arise
in climate change, and therefore equity principles are invoked and
debated. Three lines of argument have been put forward to justify a
reference to equity in this context (Section 4.6 examines the details of
burden sharing principles and frameworks in a climate regime.)
The first justification is the normative claim that it is morally proper
to allocate burdens associated with our common global climate chal-
lenge according to ethical principles. The broad set of ethical arguments
for ascribing moral obligations to individual nations has been reviewed
in Section 3.3, drawing implicitly upon a cosmopolitan view of justice,
which posits that some of the basic rights and duties that arise between
people within nations also hold between people of different nations.
The second justification is the legal claim that countries have accepted
treaty commitments to act against climate change that include
the commitment to share the burden of action equitably. This claim
derives from the fact that signatories to the UNFCCC have agreed that:
“Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present
and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in
accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities” (UNFCCC, 2002). These commitments are con-
sistent with a body of soft law and norms such as the no-harm rule
according to which a state must prevent, reduce or control the risk
of serious environmental harm to other states (Stockholm Convention
(UNEP, 1972), Rio declaration (United Nations, 1992b), Stone, 2004).
In addition, it has been noted that climate change adversely affects a
range of human rights that are incorporated in widely ratified treaties
(Aminzadeh, 2006; Humphreys, 2009; Knox, 2009; Wewerinke and Yu
III, 2010; Bodansky, 2010).
Figure 4�1 | Three frameworks for thinking about mitigation.
Looking at
Mitigation
Only
Choosing a Pathway -
Taking all Relevant Objectives
(Including Mitigation) Into Account at the Same Time
Looking at Mitigation -
Taking Into Account some Implications for
Other Aspects of SD and Equity (Cobenefits)
Maximum Sustainable Well-Being Level of Future Generations
Unsustainable
Sustainable
45° Line
Possibility Frontier
Well-Being Level of Current Generation
Figure 4�2 | The well-being level of the current generation is sustainable if it does not
exceed the maximum sustainable well-being level of the future generations — indepen-
dently of whether one is or is not on the possibility frontier. Modified from Howarth and
Norgaard (1992).
Values
Goals
Strategy
Path Followed
Sustainable
Development Path
Development
Policies
Climate Policy
Human
Development
Environmental
Conservation
Procedural Equity
Well-Being
Inter-Generational Equity
Intra-Generational Equity
Synergies
and Trade-Offs
Iterative Learning
Conceptualisation
Design
Implementation
Figure 4�3 | Links between SD, equity, and climate policy.
295295
Sustainable Development and Equity
4
Chapter 4
The third justification is the positive claim that equitable burden shar-
ing will be necessary if the climate challenge is to be effectively met.
This claim derives from the fact that climate change is a classic com-
mons problem (Hardin, 1968; Soroos, 1997; Buck, 1998; Folke, 2007)
(also see Section 13.2.1.1). As with any commons problem, the solu-
tion lies in collective action (Ostrom, 1990). This is true at the global
scale as well as the local, only more challenging to achieve (Ostrom
etal., 1999). Inducing cooperation relies, to an important degree, on
convincing others that one is doing one’s fair share. This is why notions
of equitable burden-sharing are considered important in motivating
actors to effectively respond to climate change. They are even more
important given that actors are not as equal as the proverbial ‘com-
moners’, where the very name asserts homogeneity (Milanović etal.,
2007). To the contrary, there are important asymmetries or inequalities
between stakeholders (Okereke etal., 2009; Okereke, 2010): asymme-
try in contribution to climate change (past and present), in vulnerabil-
ity to the impacts of climate change, in capacity to mitigate the prob-
lem, and in power to decide on solutions. Other aspects of the relation
between intragenerational equity and climate response include the
gender issues noted in 4.3, and the role of virtue ethics and citizen
attitudes in changing lifestyles and behaviours (Dobson, 2007; Lane,
2012), a topic analyzed in Section 4.4.
Young (2013) has identified three general conditions — which apply
to the climate context — under which the successful formation and
eventual effectiveness of a collective action regime may hinge on
equitable burden sharing: the absence of actors who are powerful
enough to coercively impose their preferred burden sharing arrange-
ments; the inapplicability of standard utilitarian methods of calculat-
ing costs and benefits; and the fact that regime effectiveness depends
on a long-term commitment of members to implement its terms. With
respect to climate change, it has long been noted that a regime that
many members find unfair will face severe challenges to its adoption
or be vulnerable to festering tensions that jeopardize its effectiveness
(Harris, 1996; Müller, 1999; Young, 2012). Specifically, any attempt to
protect the climate by keeping living standards low for a large part
of the world population will face strong political resistance, and will
almost certainly fail (Roberts and Parks, 2007; Baer etal., 2009). While
costs of participation may provide incentives for non-cooperation or
defection in the short-term, the climate negotiations are not a one-
shot game, and they are embedded in a much broader global context;
climate change is only one of many global problems — environmental,
economic, and social — that will require effective cooperative global
governance if development — and indeed human welfare — is to be
sustained in the long term (Singer, 2004; Jasanoff, 2004; Speth and
Haas, 2006; Kjellen, 2008).
Despite these three lines of justification, the question of the role that
equity does or should play in the establishment of global climate policy
and burden sharing in particular is nonetheless controversial (Victor,
1998). The fact that there is no universally accepted global authority
to enforce participation is taken by some to mean that sovereignty,
not equity is the prevailing principle. Such a conception implies that
the bottom-line criterion for a self-enforcing (Barrett, 2005) coopera-
tive agreement would be simply that everyone is no worse off than
at the status quo. This has been termed “International Paretianism”
(Posner and Weisbach, 2010), and its ironic, even perverse results have
been pointed out: “an optimal climate treaty could well require side
payments to rich countries like the United States and rising countries
like China, and indeed possibly from very poor countries which are
extremely vulnerable to climate change — such as Bangladesh.” (Pos-
ner and Weisbach, 2010).
4�2�2 Equity and its relation to sustainable
development and climate change
Equity is prominent in research and policy debates about SD and cli-
mate, both as distributive equity (distribution of resources in contexts
such as burden sharing, distribution of well-being in the broader context
of social justice, see Sections 3.3, 4.4, 4.6) and procedural equity (par-
ticipation in decision making, see Section 4.3). Various aspects of the
general concept, as developed in social ethics, are introduced in Section
3.2 under the name of fairness and justice. (In this chapter the terms
equity, fairness, and justice are not distinguished but are used according
to common usage depending on context). The aim of this subsection is
to analyze the links between equity, SD, and climate issues.
Equity between generations underlies the very notion of SD. Figure 4.2,
a variant of a figure from Howarth and Norgaard (1992), illustrates sus-
tainability as the possibility for future generations to reach at least the
same level of well-being as the current generation. It shows in particu-
lar that sustainability is a matter of distributive equity, not of efficiency,
even if eliminating inefficiencies affecting future sustainable well-being
may improve sustainability, as stressed in Grubb etal. (2013).
There has been a recent surge of research on intergenerational equity,
motivated by dissatisfaction with the tradition of discounting the utility
of future generations in the analysis of growth paths (see, e. g., Asheim
(2007), Roemer and Suzumura (2002) for recent syntheses). The debate
on discounting is reviewed in Section 3.6.2. Recent literature presents
new arguments deriving the imperative of sustaining well-being across
generations from more basic equity principles (Asheim etal., 2001, 2012).
Equity within every generation is often considered an intrinsic compo-
nent of SD linked to the social pillar. The Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs) may be seen as one indication of a more explicit global
commitment to the social pillar (United Nations, 2000). Yet, the rela-
tion between equity within generations and SD is complex. Attempting
to meet the needs of the world’s poor by proliferating the consumption
patterns and production processes of the world’s richest populations
would be unsustainable (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005;
Rockström etal., 2009b; Steffen etal., 2011; IPCC, 2014). Such a sce-
nario would not likely play out well for the world’s poor. Environmental
issues are interwoven with the fabric of racial, social, and economic
injustice. Environmental costs and benefits are often distributed so
that those who already suffer other socio-economic disadvantages
tend to bear the greatest burden (Okereke, 2011).
Figure 4.3 illustrates the normative framework in which a SD path can
be grounded on certain values (well-being, equity) and interrelated
goals (development and conservation), and the synergies and tradeoffs
between SD and climate policy, with procedural equity and iterative
learning nurturing each step, from conceptualization to implementation.
In the rest of this section, we focus on one key dimension of equity
that is of central importance to international negotiations toward an
Figure 4�1 | Three frameworks for thinking about mitigation.
Looking at
Mitigation
Only
Choosing a Pathway -
Taking all Relevant Objectives
(Including Mitigation) Into Account at the Same Time
Looking at Mitigation -
Taking Into Account some Implications for
Other Aspects of SD and Equity (Cobenefits)
Maximum Sustainable Well-Being Level of Future Generations
Unsustainable
Sustainable
45° Line
Possibility Frontier
Well-Being Level of Current Generation
Figure 4�2 | The well-being level of the current generation is sustainable if it does not
exceed the maximum sustainable well-being level of the future generations — indepen-
dently of whether one is or is not on the possibility frontier. Modified from Howarth and
Norgaard (1992).
Values
Goals
Strategy
Path Followed
Sustainable
Development Path
Development
Policies
Climate Policy
Human
Development
Environmental
Conservation
Procedural Equity
Well-Being
Inter-Generational Equity
Intra-Generational Equity
Synergies
and Trade-Offs
Iterative Learning
Conceptualisation
Design
Implementation
Figure 4�3 | Links between SD, equity, and climate policy.
296296
Sustainable Development and Equity
4
Chapter 4
However, both critics and advocates of the importance of equity in
the climate negotiations acknowledge that governments can choose
to act on moral rather than purely self-interested principles (DeCanio
and Fremstad, 2010; Posner and Weisbach, 2010, 2012; Baer, 2013;
Jamieson, 2013) (see also Section 3.10). Whether or not states behave
as rational actors, given the significant global gains to be had from
cooperation, this leaves ample room for discussion of the role of equity
in the distribution of those global gains, while still leaving all parties
better off (Stone, 2004).
While the above discussion focuses on equity among nations, equally
relevant concerns regarding equity within nations also arise, and
indeed can be overriding determinants of the prospects for climate pol-
icy to be adopted. Demands for equity have been articulated by labour
communities primarily in terms of a just transition (International
Labour Office, 2010; Newell and Mulvaney, 2013), and often by mar-
ginalized populations and racial minorities in terms of environmental
justice and just sustainability (Agyeman and Evans, 2004; Walker and
Bulkeley, 2006; Shiva, 2008). While the particular demands are highly
location- and context-specific, the broad concerns are procedural and
about distributive justice with reduced power asymmetries, as under-
scored throughout this chapter.
4.3 Determinants, drivers
and barriers
This section explores the determinants of SD, emphasizing how each
influences the extent to which societies can balance the economic,
social, and environmental pillars of SD, while highlighting potential
synergies and tradeoffs for the building of mitigative and adaptive
capacity and the realization of effective and equitable mitigation and
adaptation strategies. Determinants refer to social processes, proper-
ties, and artefacts, as well as natural resources, which together con-
dition and mediate the course of societal development, and thus the
prospects for SD. When determinants facilitate SD they act as drivers
and when they constrain it they act as barriers.
The determinants discussed include: the legacy of development rela-
tions; governance and political economy; population and demography;
human and social capital; behaviour, culture, and values; technology and
innovation processes; natural resources; and finance and investment.
These determinants are interdependent, characterized by feedbacks that
blur the distinction between cause and effect, and their relative impor-
tance depends on context — see analogous discussion in the context
of GHG emission drivers in Section 5.3. They are not unique, and other
determinants such as leadership (Jones and Olken, 2005), randomness
(Holling, 1973; Arthur, 1989), or human nature (Wilson, 1978) could be
added to the list, but they are less amenable to deliberate intervention
by policy-makers and other decision makers and have therefore been
excluded. What follows lays the foundations for understanding concepts
that recur throughout this chapter and those that follow.
4�3�1 Legacy of development relations
Following World War II, security, economic, and humanitarian relations
between rich nations and poor nations were comingled and addressed
under the umbrella of ‘development’ (Truman, 1949; Sachs, Wolfgang,
1999). Differing perspectives on the mixed outcomes of six decades
of development, and what the outcomes may indicate about underly-
ing intentions and capabilities, inform different actors in different ways
as to what will work to address climate change and the transition
to SD. During the 1950s and 1960s, for example, expectations were
that poverty would be reduced dramatically by the end of the cen-
tury (Rist, 2003). It was widely believed that economic development
could be instigated through aid from richer nations, both financial and
in kind. Development was seen as a process of going through stages
starting with transforming traditional agriculture through education,
the introduction of new agricultural technologies, improved access to
capital for farm improvements, and the construction of transportation
infrastructure to facilitate markets. Improved agriculture would release
workers for an industrial stage and thereby increase opportunities
for education and commercial development in cities. As development
proceeded, nations would increasingly acquire their own scientific
capabilities and, later, sophisticated governance structures to regulate
finance and industry in the public good, becoming well-rounded, well-
governed economies comparable to those of rich nations.
By the 1970s, however, it was clear that development was not on a
path to fulfilling these linear expectations because: 1) contributions
of aid from the rich nations were not at levels anticipated; 2) tech-
nological and institutional changes were only partially successful,
proved inappropriate, or had unpredicted, unfortunate consequences;
3) requests for military aid and the security and economic objectives of
richer nations in the context of the Cold War were frequently given pri-
ority over poverty reduction; and 4) graft, patronage, and the favouring
of special interests diverted funds from poverty reduction. The general
belief that nations naturally went through stages of development to
become well-rounded economies faded by the early 1980s. Greater
participation in global trade, with its implied specialization, was
invoked as the path to economic growth. Diverse other efforts were
made to improve how development worked, but with only modest suc-
cess, leaving many in rich and poor nations concerned about develop-
ment process and prospects (United Nations, 2011a).
Layering the goal of environmental sustainability onto the goal of
poverty reduction further compounded the legacy of unmet expecta-
tions (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987).
There have been difficulties determining, shifting to, and governing
for sustainable pathways (Sanwal, 2010) — see Section 4.3.2 below.
The negotiation of new rules for the mobility of private capital and
the drive for globalization of the economy also came with new expec-
297297
Sustainable Development and Equity
4
Chapter 4
tations for development (Stiglitz, 2002). The Millennium Development
Goals (MDG) established in 2000 to be met by 2015 are an example
of how such expectations were thought to be realizable in the rap-
idly evolving times of the global financial economy. In retrospect and
after the 2008 financial sector induced recession, significant improve-
ments are largely in China and India where economic growth acceler-
ated through private capital flows independent of the MDG process.
Excluding these countries, the record is mixed at best and still poor in
most of Africa (Keyzer and Wesenbeeck, 2007; Easterly, 2009; United
Nations, 2011a). Additionally, since the 1990s, greenhouse gas emis-
sions became another focus of contention (Roberts and Parks, 2007;
Penetrante, 2011; Dryzek etal., 2011). The developed nations became
rich through the early use of fossil fuels and land transformations that
put GHGs in the atmosphere, imposing costs on all people, rich and
poor, through climate impacts that will persist over centuries (Sriniva-
san etal., 2008). Connections between causal and moral responsibility
arose, complicating the legacy of development.
Such legacy of unmet development and sustainability expectations is
open to multiple interpretations. In richer nations, the evidence can be
interpreted to support the views of fiscal conservatives who oppose
aid, libertarians who oppose humanitarian and environmental inter-
ventions, progressives who urge that more needs to be done to reach
social and environmental goals, and some environmentalists who urge
dematerialization and degrowth among the rich as necessary to meet
the needs of the poor. In poorer nations, the legacy similarly supports
various views including a distrust of rich nations for not delivering
development and environmental assistance as promised, cynicism
toward the intentions and conceptual rationales when it is provided,
and also a wariness of development’s unpredicted outcomes.
In both developed and developing nations these diverse sentiments
among the public, policy makers, and climate negotiators contribute
to what philosopher Gardiner (2011b) refers to as the “perfect moral
storm” of climate policy. Some analysts argue that the legacy of devel-
opment and interrelated issues of equity so cloud global climate nego-
tiations that ad hoc agreements and voluntary pledges are the most
that can be achieved (Victor, 2004) and considerations of development
and equity are better left aside (Posner and Weisbach, 2010), although
this leaves open whether such arrangements could provide an ade-
quately ambitious climate response consistent with the UNFCCC’s
objectives. (See Section 4.6.2 for further discussion of perspectives on
equity in a climate regime, and Section 13.4.3 for further discussion of
regime architectures).
4�3�2 Governance and political economy
Governance and political economy are critical determinants for SD,
equity, and climate change mitigation because they circumscribe the
process through which these goals and how to attain them are articu-
lated and contested. The quest for equity and climate change mitigation
in the context of SD thus necessitates an improved understanding and
practice of governance (Biermann etal., 2009; Okereke etal., 2009).
Governance in the broadest sense refers to the processes of interac-
tion and decision making among actors involved in a common problem
(Kooiman, 2003; Hufty, 2011). It goes beyond notions of formal gov-
ernment or political authority and integrates other actors, networks,
informal institutions, and incentive structures operating at various lev-
els of social organization (Rosenau, 1990; Chotray and Stoker, 2009).
In turn, climate governance has been defined as the mechanisms and
measures “aimed at steering social systems towards preventing, miti-
gating or adapting to the risks posed by climate change” (Jagers and
Stripple, 2003). From this definition, it can be seen as a broad phe-
nomenon encompassing not only formal policymaking by states, but
all the processes through which authority is generated and exerted to
affect climate change and sustainability. This includes policymaking by
states but also by many other actors -NGOs, TNCs, municipalities, for
example — operating across various scales (Okereke etal., 2009).
Many scholars have highlighted the challenges associated with gov-
erning for SD and climate change (Adger and Jordan, 2009; Levin etal.,
2012). First, it involves rethinking the ways society relates to nature
and the underlying biophysical systems. This is relevant in the con-
text of the growing evidence of the impact of human activity on the
planet and the understanding that extraordinary degrees of irrevers-
ible damage and harm are distinct possibilities if the right measures
are not taken within an adequate timescale (Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment, 2005; Rockström etal., 2009a). Second, governing climate
change involves complex intergenerational considerations. On the one
hand, cause and effect of some environmental impacts and climate
change are separated by decades, often generations, and on the other
hand, those who bear the costs of remediation and mitigation may not
be the ones to reap the benefits of avoided harm (Biermann, 2007).
Third, effective response to climate change may require a fundamental
restructuring of the global economic and social systems, which in turn
would involve overcoming multiple vested interests and the inertia
associated with behavioural patterns and crafting new institutions that
promote sustainability (Meadows etal., 2004; Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment, 2005). This challenge is exacerbated by the huge mis-
match between the planning horizon needed to address global envi-
ronmental problems and climate change and the tenure of decision
makers (Hovi etal., 2009).
Fourth, and finally, SD governance cuts across several realms of policy
and organization. Particularly, the governance of mitigation and adap-
tation is an element of a complex and evolving arena of global envi-
ronmental governance, which deals with other, and often overlapping,
issues such as biodiversity loss, desertification, water management,
trade, energy security, and health, among others (Adger and Jordan,
2009; Brown, 2009; Bell etal., 2010; Balsiger and Debarbieux, 2011; da
Fonseca etal., 2012; Bark etal., 2012). Sites of climate change gover-
nance and policymaking are thus multiple and are not confined to the
UNFCCC and national rule-making processes, a situation which raises
challenges in relation to coordination, linkages, and synergies (Ostrom,
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2010; Zelli, 2011; Jinnah, 2011) — see Sections 13.4, 13.13, 14.1, 15.2,
notably Figure 13.1 for a visual summary.
These considerations explain why climate governance has attracted
more political controversy than other issues in relation to global sus-
tainability and its equity considerations. Some of the main aspects of
this controversy include: who should participate in decision making;
how to modulate power asymmetry among stakeholders; how to share
responsibility among actors; what ideas and institutions should govern
response measures; and where should interventions focus? Questions
of justice are embedded throughout, aggravated by the high stakes
involved and the stark asymmetry among states and others actors in
terms of cause, effect, and capability to respond to the problem (Oker-
eke and Dooley, 2010; Okereke, 2010; Schroeder etal., 2012).
Scholars have long analyzed the above issues within climate gover-
nance, offering a multitude of possible solutions. Concerning participa-
tion, a departure from the top-down approach implied in the Kyoto
Protocol towards a more voluntary and bottom-up approach has been
suggested (Rayner, 2010). Some argue that limiting participation to the
“most capable, responsible and vulnerable” countries can foster prog-
ress toward more stringent mitigation policy (Eckersley, 2012). How-
ever, the latter has been opposed on the basis that it would further
exacerbate issues of inequity (Aitken, 2012; Stevenson and Dryzek,
2012). Others have discussed the need to create spaces for collabora-
tive learning to debate, legitimize, and potentially overcome knowl-
edge divides between experts and lay people in sectoral climate policy
development (Swanson etal., 2010; Armitage etal., 2011; Colfer, 2011;
Larsen etal., 2012) — see Sections 13.3.1 and 13.5 for further detail.
On allocation of responsibility, a global agreement has been elusive
not merely because parties and other key actors have differing concep-
tions of a fair allocation (Okereke, 2008), but because the pertinent
policies are highly contentious given the combination of factors at
play, prominent among which are finance, politics, ineffective institu-
tions, and vested interests.
A defining image of the climate governance landscape is that key
actors have vastly disproportionate capacities and resources, includ-
ing the political, financial, and cognitive resources that are necessary
to steer the behaviour of the collective within and across territorial
boundaries (Dingwerth and Pattberg, 2009). A central element of gov-
ernance therefore relates to huge asymmetry in such resources and the
ability to exercise power or influence outcomes. Some actors, includ-
ing governments, make use of negotiation power and / or lobbying
activities to influence policy decisions at multiple scales and, by doing
so, affect the design and the subsequent allocation and distribution
of benefits and costs resulting from such decisions (Markussen and
Svendsen, 2005; Benvenisti and Downs, 2007; Schäfer, 2009; Sandler,
2010) — see e. g., Section 15.5.2. The problem, however, also resides
in the fact that those that wield the greatest power either consider it
against their interest to facilitate rapid progress towards a global low
carbon economy or insist that the accepted solutions must be aligned
to increase their power and material gains (Sæverud and Skjærseth,
2007; Giddens, 2009; Hulme, 2009; Lohmann, 2009, 2010; Okereke and
McDaniels, 2012; Wittneben etal., 2012). The most notable effect of
this is that despite some exceptions, the prevailing organization of the
global economy, which confers significant power on actors associated
with fossil fuel interests and with the financial sector, has provided the
context for the sorts of governance practices of climate change that
have dominated to date (Newell and Paterson, 2010).
Many specific governance initiatives, described in Sections 13.13 and
15.3, whether organized by states or among novel configurations of
actors, have focused on creating new markets or investment opportuni-
ties. This applies, for example, to carbon markets (Paterson, 2009), car-
bon offsetting (Bumpus and Liverman, 2008; Lovell etal., 2009; Corbera
and Schroeder, 2011; Corbera, 2012), investor-led governance initia-
tives such as the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) (Kolk etal., 2008)
or partnerships such as the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Partnership (REEEP) (Parthan etal., 2010). Some scholars find that car-
bon markets can contribute to achieving a low fossil carbon transition,
but require careful designs to achieve environmental and welfare gains
(Wood and Jotzo, 2011; Pezzey and Jotzo, 2012; Springmann, 2012;
Bakam etal., 2012). Others note that such mechanisms are vulnerable
to ‘capture’ by special interests and against the original purposes for
which they are conceived. Several authors have discussed this problem
in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) (Lohmann, 2008;
Clò, 2010; Okereke and McDaniels, 2012; Böhm etal., 2012).
Governing for SD and climate change requires close attention to three
key issues. First, there is a need to understand current governance as
encompassing more than the actors within formal government struc-
tures, and to understand how choices are driven by more than optimal
decision making theory. Second effective governance requires under-
standing the dynamics that determine whether and how policy options
are legitimized, and then formally deliberated and adopted (or not).
Consequently, it is necessary to examine how these modes of gover-
nance are defined and established in the first place, by whom and for
whose benefit, thus illuminating the relationship and tensions between
effective governance and existing trends in political economy. Third,
there is a need to explore how different modes of governance translate
into outcomes, affecting the decisions and actions of actors at multiple
scales, and to draw lessons about their environmental effectiveness
and distributional implications. While some argue that states should
still be regarded as key agents in steering such transitions (Eckersley,
2004; Weale, 2009), most decision making relevant to SD and climate
remains fundamentally decentralized. A key challenge of governance is
thus to recognize the political economy context of these decision mak-
ers, to ensure procedurally equitable processes that address the alloca-
tion of responsibilities and ensure transparency and accountability in
any transition towards SD.
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4�3�3 Population and demography
Population variables, including size, density, and growth rate, as well
as age, sex, education, and settlement structures, play a determinant
role in countries’ SD trajectories. Their drivers, in particular fertility,
mortality, and migration, are reciprocally influenced by development
pathways, including evolving policies, socio-cultural trends, as well as
by changes in the economy (Bloom, 2011). In the climate change con-
text, population trends have been shown to matter both for mitigation
efforts as well as for societies’ adaptive capacities to climate change
(O’Neill etal., 2001).
Current demographic trends show distinct patterns in different parts
of the world. While population sizes are on a declining trajectory in
Eastern Europe and Japan, they are set for significant further increase
in many developing countries (particularly in Africa and south-western
Asia) due to a very young population age structure and continued
high levels of fertility. As most recent projections show, the world’s
population is almost certain to increase to between 8 and 10 billion by
mid-century. After that period, uncertainty increases significantly, with
the future trend in birth rates being the key determinant, but it is also
amplified by the uncertainty about future infectious disease mortal-
ity and the still uncertain consequences of climate change on future
mortality trajectories (O’Neill etal., 2001; Lutz and KC, 2010; United
Nations, 2011b; Lee, 2011; Scherbov etal., 2011). The population of
Sub-Saharan Africa will almost certainly double and could still increase
by a factor of three or more depending on the course of fertility over
the coming decades, which depends primarily on progress in female
education and the availability of reproductive health services (Bon-
gaarts, 2009; Bloom, 2011; Bongaarts and Sinding, 2011).
Declining fertility rates, together with continued increases in life-
expectancy, result in significant population ageing around the world,
with the current low fertility countries being most advanced in this
process. Population ageing is considered a major challenge for the
solvency of social security systems. For populations still in the process
of fertility decline, the expected burden of ageing is a more distant
prospect, and the declining birth rates are expected to bring some near
term benefits. This phase in the universal process of any demographic
transition, when the ratio of children to adults is already declining and
the proportion of elderly has not yet increased, is considered a window
of opportunity for economic development, which may also result in an
economic rebound effect leading to higher per capita consumption and
emissions (Bloom and Canning, 2000).
Low development is widely understood to contribute to high population
growth, which declines only after the appearance of widespread access
to key developmental needs such as perinatal and maternal healthcare,
and female education and empowerment. Conversely, high population
growth is widely regarded as an obstacle to SD because it tends to
make efforts such as the provision of clean drinking water and agricul-
tural goods and the expansion of health services and school enrollment
rates difficult (Dyson, 2006; Potts, 2007; Pimentel and Paoletti, 2009).
This has given rise to the fear of a vicious circle of underdevelopment
and gender inequity yielding high population growth and environmen-
tal degradation, in turn inhibiting the development necessary to bring
down fertility (Caole and Hoover, 1958; Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971;
Dasgupta, 1993). However, history shows that countries can break
this vicious circle with the right social policies, with an early emphasis
on education and family planning; prominent examples include South
Korea and Mauritius, which were used in the 1950s as textbook exam-
ples of countries trapped in such a vicious circle (Meade, 1967).
With respect to adaptation to climate change, the literature on popula-
tion and environment has begun to explore more closely people’s vul-
nerability to climate stressors, including variability and extreme events,
and to analyze their adaptive capacity and reliance on environmen-
tal resources to cope with adversities and adapt to gradual changes
and shocks (Bankoff etal., 2004; Adger etal., 2009) — see also Section
4.6.1 and WGII AR5. Generally speaking, not only does the number of
people matter, but so does their composition by age, gender, place of
residence, and level of education, as well as the institutional context
that influences people’s decision making and development opportuni-
ties (Dyson, 2006). One widely and controversially discussed form of
adaptation can be international migration induced by climate change.
There is often public concern that massive migration of this sort
could contribute to political instability and possibly conflict. However,
a major recent review of our knowledge in this field has concluded
that much environmentally induced migration is likely to be internal
migration and there is very little science-based evidence for assessing
possible consequences of environmental change on large international
migration streams (UK Government Office for Science, 2011).
4�3�4 Values and behaviours
Research has identified a range of individual and contextual predictors
of behaviours in favour or against climate change mitigation, ranging
from individuals’ psychological needs to cultural and social orientations
towards time and nature (Swim etal., 2009) — see Sections 2.4, 3.10,
and 5.5. Below we discuss some of these factors, focusing on human
values that influence individual and collective behaviours and affect
our priorities and actions concerning the pursuit of SD, equity goals,
and climate mitigation. Values have been defined as “enduring beliefs
that pertain to desirable end states or behaviours, transcend specific
situations, guide selection or evaluation of behaviour and events and
are ordered by importance” (Pepper etal., 2009; citing Schwartz and
Bilsky, 1987). Values provide “guides for living the best way possible
for individuals, social groups and cultures” (Pepper etal., 2009; citing
Rohan, 2000) and so influence actions at all levels of society — includ-
ing the individual, the household, the firm, civil society, and govern-
ment. Individuals acquire values through socialization and learning
experience (Pepper etal., 2009) and values thus relate to many of the
other determinants discussed in this section. Values may be rooted
in cultural, religious, and other belief systems, which may sometimes
conflict with scientific understandings of environmental risks. In par-
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ticular, distinct values may influence perceptions and interpretations of
climate impacts and hence climate responses (Wolf etal., 2013).
The relevance of values to SD and, particularly, to ecologically conscious
(consumer) behaviour, is related to the nature of environmental issues as
‘social dilemmas’, where short-term narrow individual interests conflict
with the longer term social interest (Pepper etal., 2009). Researchers
have highlighted the role of non-selfish values that promote the welfare
of others (including nature), noting that some but not all indigenous
societies are known to focus on ‘collective’ as opposed to ‘individual’
interests and values, which often result in positive resource conservation
strategies and wellbeing (Gadgil etal., 1993; Sobrevila, 2008; Watson
etal., 2011). However, it is well known that a range of factors also medi-
ate the impact of values on behaviour so that the link from values to
ecologically conscious behaviour is often loose (Pepper etal., 2009).
In fact, this ‘value-action’ gap suggests that pursuing climate change
mitigation and SD globally may require substantial changes in behav-
iour in the short term along with a transformation of human values
in the long term, e. g., progressively changing conceptions and atti-
tudes toward biophysical systems and human interaction (Gladwin
etal., 1995; Leiserowitz etal., 2005; Vlek and Steg, 2007; Folke etal.,
2011a). Changing human values would require a better understanding
of cross-cultural behavioural differences that in turn relate to environ-
mental, economic, and political histories (Norenzayan, 2011).
Behavioural change can be induced by changes in formal and civil
institutions and governance, human values (Jackson, 2005a; Folke
etal., 2011a; Fischer etal., 2012), perceptions of risk and causality, and
economic incentives. Removing perverse subsidies for environmentally
harmful products, favouring greener consumption and technologies,
adopting more comprehensive forms of biophysical and economic
accounting, and providing safer working conditions are considered
central for achieving pro-SD behavioural change (Lebel and Lorek,
2008; Le Blanc, 2010; Thøgersen, 2010). Yet behaviour experiments
(Osbaldiston and Schott, 2012) suggest there is no ‘silver bullet’ for
fostering ecologically conscious behaviour, as favourable actions (e. g.,
to conserve energy) are triggered by different stimuli, including infor-
mation, regulation or economic rewards, and influenced by the nature
of the issue itself. Furthermore, people are able to “express both rela-
tively high levels of environmental concern and relatively high levels of
materialism simultaneously” (Gatersleben etal., 2010). This suggests
the need to be issue, context, and culturally aware when designing
specific actions to foster pro-SD behaviour, as both environmental and
materialistic concerns must be addressed. These complexities under-
score the challenges in changing beliefs, preferences, habits, and rou-
tines (Southerton, 2012) — see Sections 4.4 and 5.5.2.
4�3�5 Human and social capital
Levels of human and social capital also critically influence a transition
toward SD and the design and implementation of mitigation and adap-
tation strategies. Human capital results from individual and collective
investments in acquiring knowledge and skills that become useful for
improving wellbeing (Iyer, 2006). Such knowledge and skills can be
acquired through formal schooling and training, as well as informally
through customary practices and institutions, including communities
and families. Human capital can thus be viewed as a critical compo-
nent of a broader-encompassing human capability, i. e., a person’s
ability to achieve a given list of ‘functionings’ or achievements, which
depend on a range of personal and social factors, including education,
age, gender, health, income, nutritional knowledge, and environmen-
tal conditions, among others (Sen, 1997, 2001). See Clark (2009) and
Schokkaert (2009) for a review of Sen’s capability approach and its
critiques.
Economists have long considered improvements in human capital a
key explanatory reason behind the evolution of economic systems, in
terms of growth and constant innovation (Schultz, 1961; Healy and
Cote, 2001). Macro-economic research shows a strong correlation
between levels of economic development and levels of human capi-
tal and vice versa (Schultz, 2003; Iyer, 2006), while micro-economic
studies reveal a positive relationship between increases in the quan-
tity and quality of formal education and future earnings (Duflo, 2001).
Gains in human capital can be positively correlated to economic
growth and efficiency, but also to nutritional, health, and education
standards (Schultz, 1995). As such, improvements in human capital
provide a basis for SD, as they shape countries’ socio-economic sys-
tems and influence people’s ability to make informed choices. Seem-
ingly, human capital often also explains the development and survival
of business ventures (Colombo and Grilli, 2005; Patzelt, 2010; Gimmon
and Levie, 2010), which are an important source of innovation and
diffusion of principles and technologies that can contribute to SD and
to ambitious mitigation and adaptation goals (Marvel and Lumpkin,
2007; Terjesen, 2007).
Additionally, a growing body of literature in economics, geography,
and psychology (reviewed in Sections 2.4, 2.6.6 and 3.10 as well as
in WGII Chapter 2) has shown that the diversity of environmental,
socio-economic, educational and cultural contexts in which individu-
als make decisions shape their willingness and / or ability to engage in
mitigation and adaptation action (Lorenzoni etal., 2007). It is impor-
tant to distinguish between formally acquired knowledge on climate
change — often based on scientific developments — and traditional
knowledge on climate-related issues (Smith and Sharp, 2012), as well
as to recognize that the relative validity of both types of knowledge
to different audiences, and the meaning and relevance of personal
engagement, will be influenced by individual perceptions, preferences,
values, and beliefs. Therefore, knowledge on climate issues does not
alone explain individual and collective responses to the climate chal-
lenge (Whitmarsh, 2009; Sarewitz, 2011; Wolf and Moser, 2011; Berk-
hout, 2012). There is evidence of cognitive dissonance and strategic
behaviour in both mitigation and adaptation. Denial mechanisms
that overrate the costs of changing lifestyles, blame others, and that
cast doubt on the effectiveness of individual action or the soundness
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of scientific knowledge are well documented (Stoll-Kleemann etal.,
2001; Norgaard, 2011; McCright and Dunlap, 2011), as is the con-
certed effort by opponents of climate action to seed and amplify those
doubts (Jacques et al., 2008; Kolmes, 2011; Conway and Oreskes,
2011).
Among the different definitions of social capital, one of the most
influential was proposed by Fukuyama (2002): the shared norms or
values that promote social cooperation, which are founded in turn
on actual social relationships, including trust and reciprocity. Social
capital appears in the form of family bonds, friendship and collective
networks, associations, and other more or less institutionalized forms
of collective action. Social capital is thus generally perceived as an
asset for both the individuals that recognize and participate in such
norms and networks and for the respective group / society, insofar as
they derive benefits from information, participating in decision making
and belonging to the group. Social capital can be linked to successful
outcomes in education, employment, family relationships, and health
(Gamarnikow and Green, 1999), as well as to economic development
and participatory, democratic governance (Woolcock, 1998; Fuku-
yama, 2002; Doh and McNeely, 2012). Indeed, social capital can also
be sustained on unfair social norms and institutions that perpetuate
an inequitable access to the benefits provided by social organization
(Woolcock and Narayan, 2000), through social networks of corruption
or criminal organizations, for example, that perpetuate the uneven dis-
tribution of public resources, and undermine societies’ cohesion and
physical security.
Scholarship suggests that social capital is supportive for SD (Rudd,
2000; Bridger and Luloff, 2001; Tsai, 2008; Ostrom, 2008; Jones etal.,
2011), having shown that it can be instrumental to address collective
action problems (Ostrom, 1998; Rothstein, 2005), combat injustices
and conditions of poverty and vulnerability (Woolcock and Narayan,
2000), and benefit from resources (Bebbington, 1999; Diaz et al.,
2002), and to foster mitigation and adaptation (Adger, 2003; Wolf
etal., 2010).
4�3�6 Technology
Technology has been a central element of human, social, and economic
development since ancient times (Jonas, 1985; Mokyr, 1992). It can be
a means to achieving equitable SD, by enabling economic and social
development while using environmental resources more efficiently.
The development and deployment of the overwhelming majority of
technologies is mediated by markets, responding to effective demand
of purchasers (Baumol, 2002), and carried out by private firms, where
the pre-requisites of technological capacity and investment resources
tend to be found. However, this process does not necessarily address
the basic needs of those members of society with insufficient market
demand to influence the decisions of innovators and investors, nor
does it provide an incentive to reduce externalized costs, such as the
costs of GHG pollution (Jaffe etal., 2005).
Fundamental objectives of equity and SD are still unmet. For example,
the basic energy and nutritional needs of large parts of the world’s
population remain unfulfilled. An estimated 1.3 billion people lacked
access to electricity in 2010 and about 3 billion people worldwide
relied on highly polluting and unhealthy traditional solid fuels for
household cooking and heating (Pachauri etal., 2012; IEA, 2012b) (see
Section 14.3.2.1). Similarly, the Food and Agricultural Organization
(FAO) indicates that almost 870 million people (mostly in developing
countries) were chronically undernourished in 2010 – 12 (FAO, 2012).
Achieving the objectives of equitable SD demands the fulfilment of
such basic and other developmental needs. The challenge is therefore
to design, implement, and provide support for technology innovation
and diffusion processes that respond to social and environmental
goals, which at present do not receive adequate incentives through
conventional markets.
Scholars of technological change have, in recent years, begun to
highlight the ‘systemic’ nature of innovation processes as well as the
fundamental importance of social and technical interactions in shap-
ing technological change (see Section 4.5.2.2). Accordingly, as a first
step toward understanding how innovation could help meet social
and environmental goals, a systematic assessment of the adequacy
and performance of the relevant innovation systems would be help-
ful, including an examination of the scale of innovation investments,
the allocation among various objectives and options, the efficiency by
which investments yield outputs, and how effectively the outputs are
utilized for meeting the diffusion objectives (Sagar and Holdren, 2002;
Sanwal, 2011; Aitken, 2012). For example, many reports and analy-
ses have suggested that investments in innovation for public goods
such as clean energy and energy access are not commensurate with
the nature and scale of these challenges (Nemet and Kammen, 2007;
AEIC, 2010; Bazilian etal., 2010). Innovation in and diffusion of new
technologies also require skills and knowledge from both developers
and users, as well as different combinations of enabling policies, insti-
tutions, markets, social capital, and financial means depending on the
type of technology and the application being considered (Bretschger,
2005; Dinica, 2009; Blalock and Gertler, 2009; Rao and Kishore, 2010;
Weyant, 2011; Jänicke, 2012). Appropriately harnessing these kinds of
capabilities and processes themselves may require novel mechanisms
and institutional forms (Bonvillian and Weiss, 2009; Sagar etal., 2009).
At the same time, the role of public policy in creating demand for tech-
nologies that have a public goods nature cannot be overstated (see
also Section 3.11), although these policies need to be designed care-
fully to be effective. In the case of renewables, for example, it has been
shown that intermittent policy subsidies, governments’ changing R&D
support, misalignments between policy levels, sectors, and institutions
can greatly impede the diffusion of these technologies (Negro etal.,
2012). Similarly, in agriculture, while there are many intersections
between mitigation and SD through options such as ‘sustainable agri-
culture’, the potential for leveraging these synergies is contingent on
appropriate and effective policies (Smith etal., 2007) — see also Sec-
tions 4.6.1 and 11.10.
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Sometimes there may be a clear alignment between achieving equi-
table SD benefits and meeting climate goals such as the provision
of clean energy to the rural poor. But in meeting multiple objectives,
potential for conflicts and tradeoffs can also arise. For example, our
likely continued reliance on fossil fuels (IEA 2012b) underlies the cur-
rent exploration of new or well-established GHG mitigation options,
such as biofuels or nuclear power, and other approaches like carbon
dioxide capture and storage (CCS) and geo-engineering, including
solar radiation management techniques, to avoid a dangerous increase
of the Earth’s temperature (Crutzen, 2006; Rasch etal., 2008; IPCC,
2012b). While such technological options may help mitigate global
warming, they also pose potential adverse environmental and social
risks, and thus give rise to concerns about their regulation and gov-
ernance (Mitchell, 2008; Pimentel etal., 2009; de Paula Gomes and
Muylaert de Araujo, 2011; Shrader-Frechette, 2011; Jackson, 2011b;
Scheidel and Sorman, 2012; Scott, 2013; Diaz-Maurin and Giampietro,
2013) — see Sections 7.9 and 11.7.
The public perception and acceptability of technologies is country
and context-specific, mediated by age, gender, knowledge, attitudes
towards environmental risks and climate change, and policy procedures
(Shackley etal., 2005; Pidgeon etal., 2008; Wallquist etal., 2010; Cor-
ner etal., 2011; Poumadere etal., 2011; Visschers and Siegrist, 2012)
and therefore resolution of these kinds of tradeoffs and conflicts may
not be easy. Yet the tradeoffs and synergies between the three dimen-
sions of SD, as well as the impacts on socio-ecological systems across
geographical scales will need to be systematically considered, which
in turn will require the acknowledgement of multiple stakeholder per-
spectives. Assessment of energy technology options, for example, will
need to include impact on landscapes’ ecological and social dimen-
sions — accounting for multiple values — and on energy distribution
and access (Wolsink, 2007; Zografos and Martinez-Alier, 2009).
There are also some crosscutting issues, such as regimes for technology
transfer (TT) and intellectual property (IP) that are particularly relevant
to international cooperation in meeting the global challenge of pursu-
ing equitable SD and mitigation, although progress under the UNFCCC
has been incomplete. For example, TT under the CDM has been limited
to selective conditions and mainly to a few countries (Dechezleprêtre
etal., 2009; Seres etal., 2009; Wang, 2010). IP rights and patent laws
have been shown as promoting innovation in some countries (Khan,
2005), although recent work suggests a more nuanced picture (Moser,
2013; Hudson and Minea, 2013). In fact, IP protection has also been
regarded as a precondition for technology transfer but, again, reality
has proven more complex (United Nations Environment Programme
etal., 2010). A recent study shows that in the wind sector, there are
‘patent thickets’, which might restrain the extent and scope of dissemi-
nation of wind power technologies (Wang etal., 2013). In part, there
are such divergent views on this issue since IP and TT also touch upon
economic competitiveness (Ockwell etal., 2010). As noted earlier, per-
spectives are shaped by perceived national circumstances, capabilities,
and needs, yet these issues do need to be resolved — in fact, there may
be no single approach that will meet all needs. Different IP regimes,
for example, are required to meet development objectives at different
stages of development (Correa, 2011). The importance of this issue and
the lack of consensus provide impetus for further analysis of the evi-
dence and for exploration to develop IP and TT regimes that further
international cooperation to meet climate, SD, and equity objectives.
4�3�7 Natural resources
Countries’ level of endowment with renewable and / or non-renew-
able resources influences but does not determine their development
paths. The location, types, quantities, long-term availability and the
rates of exploitation of non-renewable resources, including fossil fuels
and minerals, and renewable resources such as fertile land, forests,
or freshwater affect national economies (e. g., in terms of GDP, trade
balance, and rent potential), agricultural and industrial production
systems, the potential for civil conflict, and countries’ role in global
geo-political and trade systems (Krausmann et al., 2009; Muradian
etal., 2012; Collier and Goderis, 2012). Economies can evolve to reflect
changes in economic trends, in policies or in consumption patterns,
both nationally and internationally. In the context of climate change,
natural resource endowments affect the level and profile of GHG emis-
sions, the relative cost of mitigation, and the level of political commit-
ment to climate action.
Resource-rich countries characterized by governance problems, includ-
ing rent-seeking behaviour and weak judiciary and political institu-
tions, have more limited capacity to distribute resource extraction rents
and increase incomes (Mehlum etal., 2006; Pendergast etal., 2011;
Bjorvatn etal., 2012). Some have negative genuine savings, i. e., they
do not fully reinvest their resource rents in foreign assets or produc-
tive capital, which in turn impoverishes present and future generations
and undermines both natural capital and human development pros-
pects (Mehlum etal., 2006; van der Ploeg, 2011). Furthermore, these
countries also face risks associated with an over-specialization on agri-
culture and resource-based exports that can undermine other produc-
tive sectors, e. g., through increases in exchange rates and a reliance
on importing countries economic growth trajectories (Muradian etal.,
2012). In some countries, an increase in primary commodity exports
can lead to the rise of socio-environmental conflicts due to the increas-
ing exploitation of land, mineral, and other resources (Martinez-Alier
etal., 2010; Mitchell and Thies, 2012; Muradian etal., 2012).
Scholars have not reached definitive conclusions on the inter-relation-
ships between resource endowment and development paths, including
impacts on social welfare and conflict, and prospects for SD. Recent
reviews, for example, note the need to continue investigating cur-
rent resource booms and busts and documenting the latter’s effect on
national economies, policies, and social well-being, and to draw histor-
ical comparisons across countries and different institutional contexts
(Wick and Bulte, 2009; Deacon, 2011; van der Ploeg, 2011). It is clear
though that the state and those actors involved in natural resources
use play a determining role in ensuring a fair distribution of any bene-
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fits and costs (Banai etal., 2011). Further, economic valuation studies
have noted that systematic valuations of both positive and negative
externalities can inform policymaking relating to resource exploita-
tion, in some cases showing that the exploitation of land and mineral
resources may not always be socially optimal, i. e., the social and envi-
ronmental costs of action may be higher than the economic benefits of
exploitation (de Groot, 2006; Thampapillai, 2011).
These considerations are relevant for mitigation policy for at least
three reasons. First, they raise questions about if and how countries
invest resource rents across economic, social, and environmental sec-
tors for SD (see Section 4.3.8). Second, they suggest that nations or
sub-national actors with abundant fossil fuel reserves have, in princi-
ple, strong economic interest in exploiting them, and thus in opposing
the adoption of policies that constrain such exploitation. The timeli-
ness of this issue is underscored by the growing financial sector atten-
tion (although not yet academic attention) to the potential impact of
a global carbon constraint on the fossil sector (Grantham Institute and
CTI 2013; HSBC Global Research, 2013; Standard & Poor’s, 2013). This
raises the issue of how to compensate resource-rich countries for for-
gone benefits if necessary to win their participation in international
mitigation efforts (Rival, 2010; Waisman etal., 2013). It similarly raises
the issue of compensating (or circumventing) sub-national actors who
are politically powerful enough to impede domestic climate efforts.
And third, they suggest that, if any given resource-rich country faces
increased exposure to climate variability and extreme events, the for-
gone benefits of resource rents may undermine its ability to absorb
increasing adaptation costs. In this regard, a recent analysis of the
relationship between countries’ adoption of mitigation policies and
their vulnerability to climate change confirms that countries that may
suffer considerable impacts of climate change in the future, which
include many resource-rich developing countries, do not show a strong
commitment to either mitigation or adaptation, while countries exhib-
iting strong political commitment and action towards mitigation are
also active in promoting adaptation policies (Tubi etal., 2012).
4�3�8 Finance and investment
The financial system, comprising a large set of private and public insti-
tutions and actors, is the medium by which households, firms, and
collectivities manage insurable risks and fund investments to secure
future returns, thereby laying the foundations for future well-being. As
such, it is a key determinant of society’s development pathway and
thus its prospects for an SD transition.
The financial system is characterized by four structural tensions with
the ideals of SD. First, its dominant private component (banks and
financial markets) is focused on commercial returns and cannot spon-
taneously internalize environmental and social spillovers, even if some
investors’ interest in ‘sustainable investment’ is growing (UNPRI,
2012). Climate change, identified as the “greatest and widest-ranging
market failure ever seen” (Stern and Treasury, 2007), is but one obvi-
ous example of a large societally important cost that is neglected by
capital markets. Second, the private component of the financial system
is also largely unattuned to distributive issues and particularly insen-
sitive to “the essential needs of the world’s poor, to which overrid-
ing priority should be given” (World Commission on Environment and
Development, 1987), even if foreign direct investments have contrib-
uted to overall growth in emerging economies. Third, the interests of
future generations may be neglected (although over-investment is also
possible — see Gollier, 2013) and within a generation, there are various
governance, organizational and sociological mechanisms contribut-
ing to short-termism (Tonello, 2006; Marginson and McAulay, 2008).
Fourth, the recent crisis has led some to conclude that the financial
system itself is a source of economic instability (Farmer etal., 2012), an
issue reinforced by the recent financialization of the global economy,
with accelerated growth of the financial sector relative to the ‘real’
economy, and an increasing role of the financial system in mediating
short-term speculation as distinct from long-term investment (Epstein,
2005; Krippner, 2005; Palley, 2007; Dore, 2008).
These inherent problems in the financial system are sometimes com-
pounded by hurdles in the economic and institutional environment. The
challenges are felt especially in many developing countries, which face
several investment barriers that affect their capacity to mobilize pri-
vate sector capital toward SD objectives and climate change mitigation
and adaptation. These barriers include the comparatively high overall
cost of doing business; market distortionary policies such as subsidies
for conventional fuels; absence of credit-worthy off-takers; low access
to early-stage financing; lower public R&D spending; too few wealthy
consumers willing to pay a premium for ‘green products’; social and
political instability; poor market infrastructure; and weak enforce-
ment of the regulatory frameworks. Establishing better mechanisms
for leveraging private sector finance through innovative financing can
help (EGTT, 2008), but there are also risks in relying on the private sec-
tor as market-based finance focuses on short term lending, and private
financing during episodes of abundant liquidity may not constitute a
source of stable long-term climate finance (Akyüz, 2012) – see Section
16.4 for further discussion and references on barriers, risks, and inno-
vative mechanisms.
While some developing countries are able to mobilize domestic
resources to finance efforts toward SD, the needs for many developing
countries exceed their financial capacity. Consequently, their ability to
pursue SD, and climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in
particular, can be severely constrained by lack of finance. The interna-
tional provision of finance, alongside technology transfer, can help to
alleviate this problem, as well as accord with principles of equity, inter-
national commitments, and arguments of effectiveness — see Sections
4.2.2 and 4.6.2. Under international agreements, in particular Agenda
21 and the Rio Conventions of 1992, and reaffirmed in subsequent UN
resolutions and programs including the 2012 UN Conference on Sus-
tainable Development (United Nations, 2012a), developed countries
have committed to provide financial resources to developing countries
that are new and additional to conventional development assistance.
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4.4 Production, trade, consump-
tion and waste patterns
The previous section has highlighted the role of behaviours and life-
styles and the complex interaction of the values, goals, and interests
of many actors in the political economy of SD and equity. In order to
better understand the possibilities and difficulties to equitably sustain
well-being in the future, this section examines the consumption of
goods and services by households, consumption trends and disparities,
and the relationship between consumption and GHG emissions. It also
discusses the components and drivers of consumption, efforts to make
consumption (and production) more sustainable, and how consump-
tion affects well-being. In order to shed light on important debates
about equity in mitigation, this chapter also reviews approaches to
consumption-based accounting of GHG emissions (carbon footprint-
ing) and their relationship to territorial approaches. So while subse-
quent chapters analyze GHG emissions associated with specific sec-
tors and transformation pathways, this chapter focuses on a particular
group (consumers) and examines their emissions in an integrated way.
The possibility of a SD pathway for the world hinges on ‘decoupling’
(von Weizsäcker etal., 1997, 2009; Jackson, 2005b, 2009). We consider
two types of decoupling at the global scale and in the long term: the
decoupling of material resource consumption (including fossil carbon)
and environmental impact (including climate change) from economic
growth (‘dematerialization’); and the decoupling of human well-being
from economic growth and consumption. The first type (see Sections
4.4.1 and 4.4.3) involves an increased material efficiency and environ-
mental efficiency of production and is generally considered crucial for
meeting SD and equity goals (UNEP, 2011); yet while some demate-
rialization has occurred, absolute levels of resource use and environ-
mental impact have continued to rise, highlighting the important dis-
tinction between relative and absolute decoupling (Krausmann etal.,
2009). This has inspired examination of the second type of decoupling
(Jackson, 2005b, 2009; Assadourian, 2010), including the reduction of
consumption levels in wealthier countries. We address this topic (in
Section 4.4.4) by examining how income and income inequality affect
dimensions of well-being. While the second type of decoupling rep-
resents a ‘stronger’ form than the first, it is also a more controversial
goal, even though the unsustainability of excessive consumption was
highlighted by Chapter 4 of Agenda 21 (United Nations, 1992c).
4�4�1 Consumption patterns, inequality and
environmental impact
4�4�1�1 Trends in resource consumption
Global levels of resource consumption and GHG emissions show
strong historical trends, driven primarily by developments in industrial-
ized countries and emerging economies (see Sections 5.2 and 14.3).
The global annual use (extraction) of material resources — i. e., ores
and industrial minerals, construction materials, biomass, and fossil
energy carriers — increased eightfold during the 20th century, reaching
about 55 Gt in 2000, while the average resource use per capita (the
metabolic rate) doubled, reaching 8.5 – 9.2 tonnes per capita per year
in 2005 (Krausmann etal., 2009; UNEP, 2011). The value of the global
consumption of goods and services (the global GDP) has increased
sixfold since 1960 while consumption expenditures per capita have
almost tripled (Assadourian, 2010). Consumption-based GHG emis-
sions (‘carbon footprints’ — see Section 4.4.2.2) increased between
1990 and 2009 in the world’s major economies, except the Russian
Federation, ranging from 0.1 – 0.2 % per year in the EU27, to 4.8 – 6.0 %
per year in China (Peters etal., 2012) (see Section 5.2.1).
Global resource consumption has risen slower than GDP, especially
after around 1970, indicating some decoupling of economic devel-
opment and resource use, and signifying an aggregate increase in
resource productivity of about 1 – 2 % annually (Krausmann et al.,
2009; UNEP, 2011). While dematerialization of economic activity has
been most noticeable in the industrialized countries, metabolic rates
across countries remain highly unequal, varying by a factor of 10 or
more due largely to differences in level of development, although there
is also significant cross-country variation in the relation between GDP
and resource use (Krausmann etal., 2009; UNEP, 2011).
4�4�1�2 Consumerism and unequal consumption levels
The spread of material consumption with rising incomes is one of the
‘mega-drivers’ of global resource use and environmental degradation
(Assadourian, 2010). While for the world’s many poor people, con-
sumption is driven mainly by the need to satisfy basic human needs, it
is increasingly common across cultures that people seek meaning, con-
tentment and acceptance in consumption. This pattern is often referred
to as ‘consumerism’, defined as a cultural paradigm where “the pos-
session and use of an increasing number and variety of goods and ser-
vices is the principal cultural aspiration and the surest perceived route
to personal happiness, social status and national success” (Assadou-
rian, 2010, p.187).
Consumerist lifestyles in industrialized countries seem to be imitated
by the growing elites (Pow, 2011) and middle-class populations in
developing countries (Cleveland and Laroche, 2007; Gupta, 2011),
exemplified by the increased demand for space cooling in emerging
economies (Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009). Together with the unequal
distribution of income in the world, the spread of consumerism means
that a large share of goods and services produced are ‘luxuries’ that
only the wealthy can afford, while the poor are unable to afford even
basic goods and services (Khor, 2011).
A disproportionate part of the GHG emissions arising from produc-
tion are linked to the consumption of products by a relatively small
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portion of the world’s population, illustrated by the great variation in
the per capita carbon footprint between countries and regions at dif-
ferent income levels (Hertwich and Peters, 2009; Davis and Caldeira,
2010; Peters etal., 2011) (see Section 14.3.1). The carbon footprint is
strongly correlated with consumption expenditure. Across countries,
Hertwich and Peters (2009) found an expenditure elasticity of 0.57 for
all GHGs: as nations become wealthier, the per capita carbon footprint
increases by 57 % for each doubling of consumption. Within countries,
similar relationships have been found between household expenditure
and carbon footprint (Druckman and Jackson, 2009; Hertwich, 2011).
Because wealthier countries meet a higher share of their final demand
from (net) imports than do less wealthy countries, consumption-based
emissions are more closely associated with GDP than are territorial
emissions, the difference being the emissions embodied in trade (see
Section 4.4.2 as well as 5.2 and 14.3).
4�4�1�3 Effect of non-income factors on per capita
carbon footprint
Non-income factors such as geography, energy system, production
methods, waste management (GAIA, 2012; Corsten et al., 2013),
household size, diet, and lifestyle also affect per capita carbon foot-
prints and other environmental impacts (Tukker etal., 2010a) so that
the effects of increasing income varies considerably between regions
and countries (Lenzen et al., 2006; Hertwich, 2011; Homma et al.,
2012), cities (Jones and Kammen, 2011) and between rural and urban
areas (Lenzen and Peters, 2010). In this regard, the environmental
impact of specific consumption patterns has been studied intensely in
recent years (Druckman and Jackson, 2009; Davis and Caldeira, 2010;
Tukker etal., 2010a; Hertwich, 2011). At the global level, Hertwich and
Peters (2009) found that food is the consumption category with the
greatest climate impact, accounting for nearly 20 % of GHG emissions,
followed by housing / shelter, mobility, services, manufactured products,
and construction (see Sections 8.2, 9.2, 10.3, 11.2, 12.2). Food and ser-
vices were a larger share in poor countries, while at high expenditure
levels, mobility and the consumption of manufactured goods caused
the largest GHG emissions (Hertwich and Peters, 2009). The factors
responsible for variations in carbon footprints across households at
different scales are further discussed in Sections 5.3, 5.5, 12.2 and
14.3.4.
4�4�2 Consumption patterns and carbon
accounting
4�4�2�1 Choice of GHG accounting method
New GHG accounting methods have emerged and proliferated in the
last decade, in response to interest in 1) determining whether nations
are reducing emissions (Bows and Barrett, 2010; Peters etal., 2011,
2012), 2) allocating GHG responsibility (Peters and Hertwich, 2008a; b;
Bows and Barrett, 2010), 3) assuring the accountability of carbon mar-
kets (Stechemesser and Guenther, 2012), 4) determining the full impli-
cations of alternative energy technologies (von Blottnitz and Curran,
2007; Martínez etal., 2009; Cherubini etal., 2009; Soimakallio etal.,
2011) and of outsourcing of industrial production (see Section 4.4.3.3)
helping corporations become greener (Wiedmann etal., 2009), and 6)
encouraging consumers to reduce their carbon footprints (Bolwig and
Gibbon, 2010; Jones and Kammen, 2011). Methods differ on whether
consumers or producers of products are responsible; whether emissions
embedded in past or potential replacement of capital investments are
included; and whether indirect emissions, for example, through global
land-use change resulting from changing product prices, are included
(Finkbeiner, 2009; Plevin etal., 2010; Plassmann et al., 2010). These
methodological differences have normative implications.
Systems of GHG emissions accounting are constructed according to
certain conventions and purposes (Davis and Caldeira, 2010). Better
ways may be excessively expensive given the plausible importance of
the value of better information in the decision process. Some interests
will plead for standardized techniques based on past data because
it favours them. Others will argue for tailored approaches that make
their technologies or products look good. Producers favour responsibil-
ity being assigned to consumers, as do nations that are net export-
ers of industrial goods. Controversies over GHG emissions account-
ing approaches play into the broader issue of mitigation governance
(see Section 4.4.2.4). And whether carbon markets are effective or
not depends on good accounting and enforcement — but what will be
enforced will depend on the accounting measures agreed upon. The
next section discusses consumption-based GHG emissions accounting.
4�4�2�2 Carbon footprinting (consumption-based GHG
emissions accounting)
Carbon (or GHG) accounting refers to the calculation of the GHG
emissions associated with economic activities at a given scale or with
respect to a given functional unit — including products, households,
firms, cities, and nations (Peters, 2010; Pandey et al., 2011). GHG
accounting has traditionally focused on emission sources, but recent
years have seen a growing interest in analyzing the drivers of emis-
sions by calculating the GHG emissions that occur along the supply
chain of different functional units such as those just mentioned (Peters,
2010). The result of this consumption-based emissions accounting is
often referred to as ‘carbon footprint’ even if it involves other GHGs
along with CO
2
. Carbon footprinting starts from the premise that the
GHG emissions associated with economic activity are generated at
least partly as a result of people’s attempts to satisfy certain functional
needs and desires (Lenzen etal., 2007; Druckman and Jackson, 2009;
Bows and Barrett, 2010). These needs and desires carry the consumer
demand for goods and services, and thereby the production processes
that consume resources and energy and release pollutants. Emission
drivers are not limited to individuals’ consumption behaviour, however,
but include also the wider contexts of consumption such as transport
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infrastructure, production and waste systems, and energy systems (see
below and Sections 7.3, 8.2, 9.2, 10.3, 11.2, 12.2).
There is no single accepted carbon footprinting methodology (Pandey
etal., 2011), nor is there one widely accepted definition of carbon foot-
print. Peters (2010) proposes this definition, which allows for all possi-
ble applications across scales: “[t]he ‘carbon footprint’ of a functional
unit is the climate impact under a specific metric that considers all rel-
evant emission sources, sinks and storage in both consumption and
production within the specified spatial and temporal system bound-
ary” (pp. 245). The emissions associated with the functional unit (but
physically not part of the unit) are referred to as ‘embodied carbon’,
‘carbon flows’ or similar terms. (Annex II of this report discusses dif-
ferent carbon footprint methodologies, including Life Cycle Assessment
(LCA) and environmentally-extended input-output (EIO) models.) Car-
bon footprints have been estimated with respect to different functional
units at different scales. Most relevant to the analysis of consumption
patterns and mitigation linkages are the carbon footprints of products
and nations, discussed in turn.
4�4�2�3 Product carbon footprinting
A product carbon footprint includes all emissions generated during
the lifecycle of a good or service — from production and distribution to
end-use and disposal or recycling. Carbon footprinting of products (and
firms) can enable a range of mitigation actions and can have co-ben-
efits (Sinden, 2009; Bolwig and Gibbon, 2010). Informing consumers
about the climate impact of products through labelling or other means
can influence purchasing decisions in a more climate-friendly direction
and at the same time enable product differentiation (Edwards-Jones
etal., 2009; Weber and Johnson, 2012). Carbon footprinting can also
help companies reduce GHG emissions cost-effectively by identifying
the various emission sources within the company and along the sup-
ply chain (Sinden, 2009; Sundarakani et al., 2010; Lee, 2012). Those
emissions can be reduced directly, or by purchasing offsets in carbon
markets. There is both theoretical and empirical evidence of a positive
relationship between a company’s environmental and financial perfor-
mance (Delmas and Nairn-Birch, 2011; Griffin etal., 2012). The spe-
cific effect of carbon footprinting on company financial performance
and investor valuation is not well researched, however, and the results
are ambiguous: in the United Kingdom, Sullivan and Gouldson (2012)
found limited investor interest in the climate change-related data pro-
vided by retailers, while a study from North America concludes that
investors do care about companies’ GHG emission disclosures, whether
these occur through a voluntary scheme or informal estimates (Griffin
etal., 2012).
1
(See also Section 15.3.3)
1
In the United States, increasing carbon emissions was found to positively impact
the financial performance of firms when using accounting-based measures,
while the impact was negative when using market-based performance measures
(Delmas and Nairn-Birch, 2011).
There are also risks associated with product carbon footprinting. It
can affect competitiveness and trade by increasing costs and reduce
demand for products made abroad, including in developing countries,
and it may violate World Trade Organization (WTO) trade rules (Bren-
ton et al., 2009; Edwards-Jones et al., 2009; Erickson et al., 2012).
A one-sided focus on GHG emissions in product development and
consumer choice could also involve tradeoffs with other sustainabil-
ity dimensions (Finkbeiner, 2009; Laurent et al., 2012). So there are
reasons to adopt more broadly encompassing concepts and tools to
assess and manage sustainability in relation to the consumption of
goods and services.
4�4�2�4 Consumption-based and territorial approaches
to GHG accounting
Consumption-based accounting of GHG emissions (carbon footprint-
ing) at national level differs from the production-based or territorial
framework because of imports and exports of goods and services
that, directly or indirectly, involve GHG emissions (Davis and Caldeira,
2010; Peters et al., 2011, 2012). The territorial framework allocates
to a nation (or other jurisdiction) those emissions that are physically
produced within its territorial boundaries. The consumption-based
framework assigns the emissions released through the supply chain
of goods and services consumed within a nation irrespective of their
territorial origin. The difference in inventories calculated based on
the two frameworks are the emissions embodied in trade (Peters and
Hertwich, 2008b; Bows and Barrett, 2010). We emphasize that terri-
torial and consumption-based accounting of emissions as such repre-
sent pure accounting identities measuring the emissions embodied in
goods and services that are produced or consumed, respectively, by an
individual, firm, country, region, etc. Responsibility for these emissions
only arises once it is assigned within a normative or legal framework,
such as a climate agreement, specifying rights to emit or obligations to
reduce emission based on one of these metrics. As detailed below, the
two approaches function differently in a global versus a fragmented
climate policy regime.
Steckel etal. (2010) show that within a global regime that internalizes
a cost of GHG emissions, the two approaches are theoretically equiva-
lent in terms of their efficiency in inducing mitigation. For example,
with a global cap-and-trade system with full coverage (i. e., an efficient
global carbon market) and given initial emission allocations, coun-
tries exporting goods benefit from export revenues, with costs related
to GHG emissions and any other negative impacts of production of
those goods priced in, such that the choice of accounting system has
no influence on the efficiency of production. Nor will it influence the
welfare of countries, irrespective of being net exporters or importers of
emissions, since costs associated with these emissions are fully inter-
nalized in product prices and will ultimately be borne by consumers.
In practice, considerations such as transaction costs and information
asymmetries would influence the relative effectiveness and choice of
accounting system.
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In the case of a fragmented climate policy regime, one argument put
in favour of a consumption-based framework is that, unlike the ter-
ritorial approach, it does not allow current emission inventories to be
reduced by outsourcing production or relying more on imports to meet
final demand. Hence, some authors (e. g., Peters and Hertwich, 2008b;
Bows and Barrett, 2010) argue that this approach gives a fairer illus-
tration of responsibility for current emissions. Carbon footprinting also
increases the range of mitigation options by identifying the distribu-
tion of GHG emissions among different activities, final uses, locations,
household types, etc. This enables a better targeting of policies and
voluntary actions (Bows and Barrett, 2010; Jones and Kammen, 2011).
On the other hand, reducing emissions at the ‘consumption end’ of sup-
ply chains requires changing deeply entrenched lifestyle patterns and
specific behaviours among many actors with diverse characteristics
and preferences, as opposed to among the much fewer actors emitting
GHGs at the source. It has also been pointed out that — identical to the
accounting of production-based emissions — there is no direct one-to-
one relationship between changes in consumption-based and global
emissions (Jakob and Marschinski, 2012). That is, if some goods or ser-
vices were not consumed in a given country, global emissions would
not necessarily decrease by the same amount of emissions generated
for their production, as this country’s trade partners would adjust their
consumption — as well as production — patterns in response to price
changes resulting from its changed demand profile. This has been shown
for China (Peters etal., 2007) and India (Dietzenbacher and Mukhopad-
hyay, 2007): while these countries are large net exporters of embodied
carbon, territorial emissions would remain roughly constant or even
increase if they were to withdraw from international trade (and produce
their entire current consumption domestically instead). Hence, without
international trade, consumption-based emissions of these countries’
trade partners would likely be reduced, but not global emissions.
It is for this reason that Jakob and Marschinski (2012) argue that a
more detailed understanding of the underlying determinants of emis-
sions is needed than what is currently provided by either territorial or
consumption-based accounts, in order to guide policies that will effec-
tively reduce global emissions in a fragmented climate policy regime.
In particular, a better understanding of system interrelationships in a
global economy is required in order to be able to attribute how, e. g.,
policy choices in one region affect global emissions by transmission via
world market prices and associated changes in production and con-
sumption patterns in other regions. Furthermore, as market dynamics
and resource use are driven by both demand and supply, it is conceiv-
able to rely on climate policies that target the consumption as well as
the production side of emissions, as is done in some other policy areas
4�4�3 Sustainable consumption and
production — SCP
The concepts of ‘sustainable consumption’ and ‘sustainable produc-
tion’ represent, respectively, demand- and supply-side perspectives on
sustainability. The efforts by producers to improve the environmental or
social impact of a product are futile if consumers do not buy the good or
service (Moisander etal., 2010). Conversely, sustainable consumption
behaviour depends on the availability and affordability of such products
in the marketplace. The idea of sustainable consumption and produc-
tion (SCP) was first placed high on the international policy agenda at
the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development and was
made part of Agenda 21. In 2003, a 10-year Framework of Programmes
on SCP was initiated, which was formalized in a document adopted by
the 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development (United Nations,
2012b, p.2). A great variety of public and private SCP policies and ini-
tiatives have developed alongside the UN-led initiatives (see Section
10.11.3), as has a large body of research that we report on below.
4�4�3�1 Sustainable consumption and lifestyle
A rich research literature on sustainable consumption has developed
over the past decade, including several special issues of international
journals (Tukker etal., 2010b; Le Blanc, 2010; Kilbourne, 2010; Black,
2010; Schrader and Thøgersen, 2011). Several books, such as Prosper-
ity without Growth (Jackson, 2009), discuss the unsustainable nature
of current lifestyles, development trajectories, and economic systems,
and how these could be changed in more sustainable directions. Sev-
eral definitions of sustainable consumption have been proposed within
policy, business, and academia (Pogutz and Micale, 2011). At a meet-
ing in Oslo in 2005, a group of scientists agreed on the following broad
and integrating conceptualization of sustainable consumption:
The future course of the world depends on humanity’s ability
to provide a high quality of life for a prospective nine billion
people without exhausting the Earth’s resources or irreparably
damaging its natural systems … In this context, sustainable
consumption focuses on formulating strategies that foster the
highest quality of life, the efficient use of natural resources,
and the effective satisfaction of human needs while simulta-
neously promoting equitable social development, economic
competitiveness, and technological innovation.
(Tukker etal., 2006)
This perspective encompasses both demand-side and production
issues, and addresses all three pillars of SD (social, economic, and envi-
ronmental) as well as equity and well-being, illustrating the complexity
of sustainable consumption and its connections to other issues.
Research has demonstrated that consumption practices and patterns
are influenced by a range of economic, informational, psychologi-
cal, sociological, and cultural factors, operating at different levels or
spheres in society — including the individual, the family, the local-
ity, the market, and the work place (Thøgersen, 2010). Furthermore,
consumers’ preferences are often constructed in the situation (rather
than pre-existing) and their decisions are highly contextual (Weber
and Johnson, 2009) and often inconsistent with values, attitudes, and
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perceptions of themselves as responsible and green consumers and
citizens (Barr, 2006; de Barcellos etal., 2011) (see below, as well as
Sections 2.6.6 and 3.10).
The sustainable consumption of goods and services can be viewed in
the broader context of lifestyle and everyday life. Conversely, sustain-
able consumption practices are bound up with perceptions of identity,
ideas of good life, and so on, and considered alongside other concerns
such as affordability and health. Ethical consumption choices are also
negotiated among family members with divergent priorities and inter-
pretations of sustainability. Choosing a simpler lifestyle (‘voluntary
simplifying’) seems to be related to environmental concern (Shaw and
Newholm, 2002; Huneke, 2005), but frugality, as a more general trait
or disposition, is not (Lastovicka etal., 1999; Pepper etal., 2009).
Other research draws attention to the constraints placed on consump-
tion and lifestyle choices by factors beyond the influence of the indi-
vidual, family or community, which tends to lock consumption into
unsustainable patterns by reducing ‘green agency’ at the micro level
(Thøgersen, 2005; Pogutz and Micale, 2011). These structural issues
include product availability, cultural norms and beliefs, and working
conditions that favour a ‘work-and-spend’ lifestyle (Sanne, 2002).
Brulle and Young (2007) found that the growth in personal consump-
tion in the United States during the 20th century is partly explained by
the increase in advertising. According to this study, the effect of adver-
tising on spending is concentrated on luxury goods (household appli-
ances and supplies and automobiles) while it is nonexistent in the field
of basic necessities (food and clothes), while Druckman and Jackson
(2010) found that in the UK, expenditures on food and clothes clearly
exceeded ‘necessary’ levels.
The strength and pervasiveness of political economy factors such as
those just mentioned, and the inadequate attention to them by policy,
is an important cause of the lack of real progress towards more sus-
tainable consumption patterns (Thøgersen, 2005; Tukker etal., 2006;
Le Blanc, 2010). Furthermore, the unsustainable lifestyles in industrial-
ized countries are being replicated by the growing elites (Pow, 2011)
and middle-class populations in developing countries (Cleveland and
Laroche, 2007; Gupta, 2011). Finally, most Sustainable Consumption
(SC) studies are done in a consumer culture context, which limits dis-
cussion of instances where sustainable consumption has pre-empted
consumerism.
4�4�3�2 Consumer sustainability attitudes and the
relation to behaviour
Despite the overwhelming impact of structural factors on consumer
practices, choices and behaviour, it is widely agreed that the achieve-
ment of more sustainable consumption patterns also depends on how
consumers value environmental quality and other dimensions of sus-
tainability (Jackson, 2005a; Thøgersen, 2005; Bamberg and Möser,
2007). It also depends on whether people believe that their consump-
tion practices make a difference to sustainability (Frantz and Mayer,
2009; Hanss and Böhm, 2010), which in turn is influenced by their
value priorities and how much they trust the environmental informa-
tion provided to them by scientists, companies, and public authorities
(Kellstedt etal., 2008). The motivational roots of sustainable consumer
choices seem to be substantially the same, although not equally salient
in different national and cultural contexts (Thøgersen, 2009; Thøgersen
and Zhou, 2012).
In a survey of European attitudes towards sustainable consumption
and production (Gallup Organisation, 2008a), 84 % of EU citizens said
that the product’s impact on the environment is “very important” or
“rather important” when making purchasing decisions. This attitude is
rarely reflected in behaviour, however. There is plenty of evidence dem-
onstrating the presence of an ‘attitude-behaviour’ or ‘values-action’
gap whereby consumers expressing ‘green’ attitudes fail to adopt sus-
tainable consumption patterns and lifestyles (Barr, 2006; Young etal.,
2010; de Barcellos etal., 2011). To a large measure, this gap can be
attributed to many other goals and concerns competing for the per-
son’s limited attention (Weber and Johnson, 2009). This observation is
reflected in the substantial difference in the level of environmental con-
cern that Europeans express in opinion polls when the issue is treated
in isolation, and when the environment is assessed in the context of
other important societal issues. For example, in 2008, 64 % of Euro-
peans said protecting the environment was “very important” to them
personally when the issue was presented in isolation (Gallup Organisa-
tion, 2008b) while only 4 % pointed at environmental pollution as one
of the two most important issues facing their country at the moment
(Gallup Organisation, 2008a). When there are many important issues
competing for the person’s limited attention and resources, those that
appear most pressing in everyday life are likely to prevail.
The likelihood that a person will act on his or her environmental con-
cern is further diminished by factors affecting everyday decisions and
behaviour, including the structural factors mentioned above, but also
more specific factors such as habit, high transactions costs (i. e., time
for information search and processing and product search), availability,
affordability, and the influence of non-green criteria such as quality,
size, brand, and discounts (Young etal., 2010). Some of these factors
vary across different product categories and within sectors (McDonald
etal., 2009). The impact of all of these impeding factors is substantial,
calling into question the capacity of ‘the green consumer’ to effectively
advance sustainable consumption and production (Csutora, 2012) and,
more generally, the individualistic view of the consumer as a powerful
market actor (Moisander etal., 2010).
Third-party eco-labels and declarations have proven to be an effective
tool to transform consumer sustainability attitudes into behaviour in
many cases (Thøgersen, 2002). One of the reasons is that a trusted
label can function as a choice heuristic in the decision situation, allow-
ing the experienced consumer to make sustainable choices in a fast
and frugal way (see Section 2.6.5 and Thøgersen etal., 2012). Label-
ing products with their carbon footprint may help to create new goals
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(e. g., to reduce CO
2
emissions) and to attract and keep attention on
those goals, in the competition between goals (Weber and Johnson,
2012). In Europe, 72 % of EU citizens thought that carbon labelling
should be mandatory (Gallup Organisation, 2008a). In Australia, Van-
clay etal. (2010) found a strong purchasing response of 20 % when
a green-labelled product (indicating relatively low lifecycle CO
2
emis-
sions) was also the cheapest, and a much weaker response when
green-labelled products were not the cheapest. Hence, consumers, at
least in developed countries, show interest in product carbon footprint
information and many consumers would prefer carbon-labelled prod-
ucts and firms over others, other things being equal (Bolwig and Gib-
bon, 2010). Yet the impeding factors and the related ‘attitude-behav-
iour’ gap limit how far one can get towards sustainable consumption
with labelling and other information-based means alone.
Research on these topics in the developing world is lacking. Consid-
ering the notion of a hierarchy of needs (Maslow, 1970; Chai and
Moneta, 2012) and the challenges facing consumers in developing
countries, carbon footprints and other environmental declarations
might be seen as a luxury concern that only developed countries can
afford. Countering this view, Kvaløy etal. (2012) find environmental
concern in developing countries at the same level as in developed
countries. Furthermore, eco-labelled products increasingly appear at
retail level in developing countries (Roitner-Schobesberger etal., 2008;
Thøgersen and Zhou, 2012).
4�4�3�3 Sustainable production
Research and initiatives on sustainable production have been con-
cerned with increasing the resource efficiency of, and reducing the pol-
lution and waste from, the production of goods and services through
technological innovations in process and product design at the plant
and product levels, and, more lately, through system-wide innovations
across value chains or production networks (Pogutz and Micale, 2011).
Policies that incentivize certain product choices have also been devel-
oped (see Section 10.11.3). Eco-efficiency (Schmidheiny and WBSCD,
1992) is the main management philosophy guiding sustainable pro-
duction initiatives among companies (Pogutz and Micale, 2011) and
is expressed as created value or provided functionality per caused
environmental impact. Moving towards a more eco-efficient produc-
tion thus means creating the same or higher value or functionality
while causing a lower environmental impact (relative or even abso-
lute decoupling). This involves consideration of multiple impacts across
scales, ranging from global impacts like climate change over regional
impacts associated with air and water pollution, to local impacts
caused by use of land or water.
A strong increase in the eco-efficiency of production is a pre-requisite
for developing a sustainable society (Pogutz and Micale, 2011). The
I=PAT equation expresses the environmental impact I as a product of
the population number P, the affluence A (value created or consumed
per capita), and a technology factor T perceived as the reciprocal of eco-
efficiency. Considering the foreseeable growth in P and A, and the cur-
rent unsustainable level of I for many environmental impacts it is clear
that the eco-efficiency (1 / T) must increase many times (a factor 4 to
20)
2
to ensure a sustainable production. While a prerequisite, even this
kind of increases in eco-efficiency may not be sufficient since A and T
are not mutually independent due to the presence of rebound — includ-
ing market effects; indeed, sometimes a reduction in T (increased eco-
efficiency) is accompanied by an even greater growth in A, thereby
increasing the overall environmental impact I (Pogutz and Micale,
2011). (A related concept to I=PAT is the Kaya identity, see Section 5.3)
With its focus on the provided function and its broad coverage of envi-
ronmental impacts, LCA is frequently used for evaluation of the eco-
efficiency of products or production activities (Hauschild, 2005; Finn-
veden etal., 2009) (see Annex II.4.2). LCA has been standardized by
the International Organization for Standardization (ISO 14040 and ISO
14044) and is a key methodology underlying standards for eco-label-
ling and environmental product declarations. LCA is also the analytical
tool underlying DFE (design for environment) methods (Bhander etal.,
2003; Hauschild etal., 2004).
With the globalization and outsourcing of industrial production, ana-
lyzing the entire product lifecycle (or product chain) — from resource
extraction to end-of-life — gains increased relevance when optimizing
the energy and material efficiency of production. A lifecycle approach
will reveal the potential problem shifting that is inherent in outsourc-
ing and that may lead to increased overall resource consumption and
GHG emissions of the product over its lifecycle in spite of reduced
impacts of the mother company (Shui and Harriss, 2006; Li and Hewitt,
2008; Herrmann and Hauschild, 2009). This is why a lifecycle perspec-
tive is applied when calculating the carbon footprint. Indeed, a life-
cycle-based assessment is generally needed to achieve resource and
emissions optimization across the product chain. The use stage can be
especially important for products that use electricity or fuels to function
(Wenzel etal., 1997; Samaras and Meisterling, 2008; Yung etal., 2011;
Sharma etal., 2011). Improvement potentials along product chains can
be large, in particular when companies shift from selling only products
to delivering product-service systems, often increasing the number of
uses of the individual product (Manzini and Vezzoli, 2003). Exchange
of flows of waste materials or energy can also contribute to increas-
ing eco-efficiency. Under the heading of ‘industrial symbiosis’, such
mutually beneficial relationships between independent industries have
emerged at multiple locations, generally leading to savings of energy
and sometimes also materials and resources (Chertow and Lombardi,
2005; Chertow, 2007; Sokka etal., 2011) (See Section 10.5).
While the broad coverage of environmental impacts supported by
LCA is required to avoid unnoticed problem shifting between impacts,
a narrower focus on climate change mitigation in relation to produc-
2
Factor 4 to factor 20 increases can be calculated depending on the expected
increases in P and A and the needed reduction in I (von Weizsäcker et al., 1997;
Schmidt-Bleek, 2008).
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tion would be supported by considering energy efficiency, which can
be addressed at different levels: the individual process, the production
facility, the product chain, and the industrial system (industrial symbio-
sis). At the process level, the operation of the individual process and
consideration of the use-stage energy efficiency in the design of the
machine tools and production equipment can be addressed (see Sec-
tion 10.4). Improvements in energy efficiency in manufacturing have
focused on both the design and operation of a variety of processes
(Gutowski etal., 2009; Duflou etal., 2010; Herrmann etal., 2011; Kara
and Li, 2011), finding improvement potentials at the individual pro-
cess level of up to 70 % (Duflou etal., 2012), and at the plant level
by re-using e. g., waste heat from one process for heating in another
(Hayakawa etal., 1999). Exergy analysis and energy pinch analysis can
be used to identify potentials for reutilization of energy flows in other
processes (Creyts and Carey, 1999; Bejan, 2002).
Research on the social dimensions of production systems have
addressed such issues as worker conditions (Riisgaard, 2009), farm
income (Bolwig etal., 2009), small producer inclusion into markets and
value chains (Bolwig etal., 2010; Mitchell and Coles, 2011) and the
role of standards in fostering sustainability (Gibbon etal., 2010; Bol-
wig etal., 2013). Recently, the LCA methodology has been elaborated
to include assessment of social impacts such as labour rights (Dreyer
etal., 2010), in order to support the assessment of problem shifting
and tradeoffs between environmental and social dimensions (Haus-
child etal., 2008).
4�4�4 Relationship between consumption and
well-being
As noted earlier, global material resource consumption continues to
increase despite substantial gains in resource productivity or eco-effi-
ciency, causing further increases in GHG emissions and overall envi-
ronmental degradation. In this light it is relevant to discuss whether
human well-being or happiness can be decoupled from consumption
or growth (Ahuvia and Friedman, 1998; Jackson, 2005b; Tukker etal.,
2006). We do this here by examining the relationship between dif-
ferent dimensions of well-being and income (and income inequality)
across populations and over time.
Happiness is an ambiguous concept that is often used as a catchword
for subjective well-being (SWB). SWB is multidimensional and includes
both cognitive and affective components (Kahneman etal., 2003). Cog-
nitive well-being refers to the evaluative judgments individuals make
when they think about their life and is what is reported in life satisfac-
tion or ladder-of-life data, whereas affective or emotional well-being
refers to the emotional quality of an individual’s everyday experience
as captured by surveys about the intensity and prevalence of feelings
along the day (Kahneman and Deaton, 2010). Emotional well-being
has been defined as “the frequency and intensity of experiences of joy,
fascination, anxiety, sadness, anger, and affection that makes one’s
life pleasant or unpleasant” (Kahneman and Deaton, 2010, p.16489).
Camfield and Skevington (2008) examine the relationship between
SWB and quality of life (QoL) as used in the literature. They find that
SWB and QoL are virtually synonymous; that they both contain a sub-
stantial element of life satisfaction, and that health and income are key
determinants of SWB or QoL, while low income and high inequality are
both associated with poor health and high morbidity.
The “Easterlin paradox” refers to an emerging body of literature sug-
gesting that while there is little or no relationship between SWB and
the aggregate income of countries or long-term GDP growth, within
countries people with more income are happier (Easterlin, 1973, 1995).
Absolute income is, it is argued, only important for happiness when
income is very low, while relative income (or income equality) is impor-
tant for happiness at a wide range of income levels (Layard, 2005;
Clark etal., 2008). These insights have been used to question whether
economic growth should be a primary goal of government policy (for
rich countries), instead of, for example, focusing on reducing inequal-
ity within countries and globally, and on maximizing subjective well-
being. For instance, Assadourian (2010) argues against consumerism
on the grounds that increased material wealth above a certain thresh-
old does not contribute to subjective well-being.
The Easterlin paradox has been contested in comparisons across coun-
tries (Deaton, 2008) and over time (Stevenson and Wolfers, 2008;
Sacks etal., 2010), on the basis of the World Gallup survey of well-
being. These works establish a clear linear relationship between aver-
age levels of ladder-of-life satisfaction and the logarithm of GDP per
capita across countries, and find no satiation threshold beyond which
affluence no longer enhances subjective well-being. Their time series
analysis also suggests that economic growth is on average associated
with rising happiness over time. On this basis they picture a strong
role for absolute income and less for relative income comparisons in
determining happiness.
These results contrast with studies of emotional well-being, which
generally find a weak relationship between income and well-being
at higher income levels. In the United States, for example, Kahneman
and Deaton (2010) find a clear satiation effect: beyond around USD
2010
75,000 annual household income (just above the mean United States
household income) “further increases in income no longer improve indi-
viduals’ emotional well-being (including aspects such as spending time
with people they like, avoiding pain and disease, and enjoying leisure)”
(p.16492).
3
But even for life satisfaction, there is contrasting evidence.
In particular, Deaton (2008) finds much variation of SWB between coun-
tries at the same level of development, and Sacks etal. (2010) finds the
long term positive relationship between income and life satisfaction to
be weakly significant and sensitive to the sample of countries (see also
Graham, 2009; Easterlin etal., 2010; Di Tella and MacCulloch, 2010).
An important phenomenon is that all components of SWB, in various
degrees, adapt to most changes in objective conditions of life, except a
3
This result is based on cross-sectional data and do not refer to the effects of a
change in a person’s income.
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Chapter 4
few things, such as physical pain (Kahneman etal., 2003; Layard, 2005;
Clark etal., 2008; Graham, 2009; Di Tella and MacCulloch, 2010).
The great variability of SWB data across individuals and countries and
the adaptation phenomenon suggest that these data do not provide
indices of well-being that are comparable across individuals and over
time. Respondents have different standards when they answer sat-
isfaction questions at different times or in different circumstances.
Therefore, the weakness of the observed link between growth and
SWB is not only debated, but it is quite compatible with a strong and
firm desire in the population for ever-growing material consumption
(Fleurbaey, 2009). Decoupling growth and well-being may be more
complicated than suggested by raw SWB indicators.
Decoupling individual well-being from consumption may be fraught
with controversies, but decoupling social welfare from average con-
sumption might be possible via inequality reduction. It has been found
that inequality in society has a marked negative effect on average SWB.
For example, Oishi etal. (2011) found that over a 37-year period, Amer-
icans were less happy on average during years with greater income
inequality. This was explained by the fact that lower-income respon-
dents “trusted other people less and perceived other people to be less
fair in the years with more national income inequality” (Oishi etal.,
2011, p.1095). The potential decoupling of social welfare from average
consumption is even more obvious if social welfare is defined in a way
that gives priority to those who are less well-off (Atkinson, 1970).
4.5 Development pathways
Sustainable development provides a framework for the evaluation
of climate policies. This is particularly useful in view of the fact that
a given concentration pathway or climate objective can typically be
achieved through various policies and development pathways inducing
different impacts on the economy, the society, and other aspects of the
environment. Integrated models provide valuable tools for the analysis
of pathways, though most models suffer from limitations analyzed in
this section.
4�5�1 Definition and examples
Though widely used in the literature, the concept of development
pathway has rarely been defined.
4
According to AR4, a development
path is “an evolution based on an array of technological, economic,
social, institutional, cultural, and biophysical characteristics that deter-
mine the interactions between human and natural systems, including
consumption and production patterns in all countries, over time at a
4
Development path and development pathway are synonymous.
particular scale” (WGIII, AR4, Glossary, p.813). AR4 also indicates that
“alternative development paths refer to different possible trajectories
of development, the continuation of current trends being just one of
the many paths”. Though AR4 defines development pathways as
global, the concept has also been used at regional (e. g., Li and Zhang,
2008), national (e. g.,Poteete, 2009) and subnational scales (e. g. Dusyk
etal., 2009) at provincial scale and (Yigitcanlar and Velibeyoglu, 2008)
at city scale. In the present report, a development pathway character-
izes all the interactions between human and natural systems in a par-
ticular territory, regardless of scale.
The concept of development pathway is holistic. It is broader than the
development trajectory of a particular sector, or of a particular group
of people within a society. Thus, a wide range of economic, social, and
environmental indicators are necessary to describe a development
pathway, not all of which may be amenable to quantitative represen-
tation. As defined by AR4, however, a “pathway” is not a random col-
lection of indicators. It has an internal narrative and causal consistency
that can be captured by the determinants of the interactions between
human and natural systems.
The underlying assumption is that the
observed development trajectory — as recorded by various economic,
social, and environmental indicators — can be explained by identifiable
drivers. This roots the concept of development pathway in the (domi-
nant) intellectual tradition according to which history has some degree
of intelligibility (while another tradition holds that history is a chaotic
set of events that is essentially not intelligible (Schopenhauer, 1819).
The literature on development pathways has two main branches. A
‘backward-looking’ body of work describes past and present develop-
ment trajectories for given territories and explores their determinants.
For example, most of the growth literature as well as a large part of
the (macro) development literature fall into this category.
5
This body
of work is discussed in Section 4.3 as well as in several other chapters.
In particular, Section 5.3.1 reviews the determinants of GHG emissions,
Section 12.2 reviews past trajectories of human settlements, and Sec-
tion 14.3 discusses past trajectories of development at regional scale.
In addition, ‘forward-looking’ studies construct plausible development
pathways for the future and examine the ways by which development
might be steered towards one pathway or another. Box 4.3 briefly
reviews the main forward-looking development pathways published
since AR4. Most of Chapter 6 is devoted to forward-looking studies.
5
This literature can itself be divided in two main groups: papers aimed at identify-
ing individual mechanisms that drive development trajectories, and papers aimed
at identifying broad patterns of development. One example of the former is the
literature on the relationships between GDP and emissions, discussed in Chapter
5, and in Section 4.4. One example of the latter is the so-called “investment
development path” literature, which, following Dunning (1981), identifies stages
of development for countries based on the direction of foreign direct investment
flows and the competitiveness of domestic firms on international markets.
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Chapter 4
4�5�2 Transition between pathways
Backward-looking studies reveal that past development pathways
have differed in many respects, notably in terms of GHG emissions
because of differences in, inter alia, fuel supply mix, location patterns,
structure of economic activity, composition of household demand,
etc. — even across countries with otherwise very similar economic
characteristics. Similarly, forward-looking studies point to very con-
trasted, yet equally plausible, futures in terms of GHG emissions. Shift-
ing from a high- to a low-emissions development pathway requires
modifying the trajectory of the system that generates (among others)
GHG emissions. It thus requires time as well as action over multiple
dimensions of development (location, technology, lifestyles, etc.). Yet,
shifting from a high- to a low-emissions development pathway could
potentially be as important for climate change mitigation as imple-
menting ‘climate’ policies (Halsnaes etal., 2011).
A central theme of the present report is to explore the conditions of a
transition towards development pathways with lower emissions, glob-
ally (Chapter 6), sectorally (Chapters 7 – 12), and regionally (Chapters
13 – 15). To frame these subsequent discussions, the present section
does two things. First, it discusses the obstacles to changing course by
introducing the key notions of path dependence and lock-ins (4.5.2.1 ).
Second, examples and lessons from the technology transition literature
are discussed (4.5.2.2 ). The policy and institutional aspects of building
strategies to transition between pathways are discussed in the subse-
quent chapters.
6
4�5�2�1 Path dependence and lock-ins
Path dependence is the tendency for past decisions and events to self-
reinforce, thereby diminishing and possibly excluding the prospects for
alternatives to emerge. Path dependence is important for analyzing
transitions between development pathways. For example, develop-
ment of inter-city highways may make further extension of the road
network more likely (if only for feeder roads) but also make further
extension of rail networks less cost-effective by drawing out traffic and
investment financing (see Section 12.5), thereby diminishing the pros-
pects for alternative transportation investments.
Chief among the mechanisms that underlie path-dependence are
‘increasing returns’ mechanisms (Page, 2006) — in which an outcome
in one period increases the probability of generating that same out-
come in the next period. Increasing returns is a large group that com-
6
The key point, as emphasized in AR4, is that a development pathway results from
the interactions of decisions by multiple agents, at all levels. Thus in general public
policies alone cannot trigger changes in pathways, and cooperation between
governments, markets, and civil societies are necessary (Sathaye et al., 2007).
Box 4�3 | Forward-Looking Development Pathways: new developments since AR4
Forward-looking development pathways aim at illuminating
possible futures, and at providing a sense of how these futures
might be reached (or avoided). Forward-looking pathways can be
constructed using various techniques, ranging from simulations
with numerical models to qualitative scenario construction or
group forecasting exercises (van Notten etal., 2003).
New sets of forward-looking development pathways have
been proposed since the AR4 review (in Sathaye etal. (2007),
Section 12.2.1.2). At the global scale, they include, inter alia,
the climate smart pathway (World Bank, 2010), the Tellus
Institute scenarios (Raskin etal., 2010), and degrowth strate-
gies (Martínez-Alier etal., 2010) or the scenarios developed
under the Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium
(IAMC) umbrella (Moss etal., 2010) to update the 2000 SRES
scenarios (IPCC, 2000). Pathways have also been proposed for
specific sectors, such as health ( Etienne and Asamoa-Baah,
2010), agriculture (Paillard etal., 2010), biodiversity (Leadley
etal., 2010; Pereira etal., 2010), and energy (Ayres and Ayres,
2009).
At the national and regional levels, the emergence of the “green
growth” agenda (OECD, 2011) has spurred the development of
many short- to medium-term exercises (e. g. Republic of Korea,
2009; Jaeger etal., 2011); as well as renewed discussions on SD
trajectories (e. g. Jupesta etal., 2011). Similarly, there is growing
research on the ways by which societies can transition towards
a “low carbon economy”, considering not only mitigation and
adaptation to climate change, but also the need for social,
economic, and technological (Shukla etal., 2008) (see Section
6.6.2 for a broader review). For instance, studies in China show
that controlling emissions without proper policies to counteract
the negative effects will have an adverse impact on the country’s
economic development, reducing its per capita income and the
living standards of both urban and rural residents (Wang Can
etal., 2005; Wang Ke, 2008). China is developing indicators for
low-carbon development and low-carbon society (UN (2010), with
many citations) with specific indicators tested on selected cities
and provinces (Fu, Jiafeng etal., 2010), providing useful data on
challenges and gaps as well as the need for clearly defined goals
and definitions of “low-carbon” and its SD context.
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Chapter 4
prises, inter alia, increasing returns to scale, learning by doing, induced
technological change, or agglomeration economies. As Shalizi and
Lecocq (2013) note, the concept of increasing returns has a long tra-
dition in economic history, and the implications of increasing returns
mechanisms have been systematically explored over the past three
decades or so, notably around issues of monopolistic competition
(Dixit and Stiglitz, 1977), international trade (Krugman, 1979), eco-
nomic geography (Fujita etal., 1999), economic growth (Romer, 1990),
industrial organizations, or adoption of technologies (Arthur, 1989).
Yet increasing returns are neither sufficient nor necessary to generate
path-dependence. They are not sufficient because competing increas-
ing returns can cancel out. And they are not necessary because other
mechanisms might generate path-dependence. For example, deci-
sions that involve the use of scarce resources, such as land, labour or
exhaustible natural resources constrain future agents’ options, either
temporarily (for labour) or permanently (for exhaustible resources).
Similarly, in the presence of switching costs — e. g., costs attached to
premature replacement of long-lived capital stock — decisions made at
one point in time can partially or totally lock-in decision makers’ sub-
sequent choices (Farrell and Klemperer, 2007). Also, path-dependence
can emerge from coordination failures in complex systems that require
high degree of articulation between actors (Yarime, 2009). The key
message is that it is essential to look broadly for mechanisms that may
generate path-dependence when analyzing the determinants of path-
ways (past or anticipated) (Shalizi and Lecocq, 2013).
Lock-in is the most extreme manifestation of path dependence, when
it becomes extremely costly or impossible to shift away from the cur-
rent pathway. Lock-ins can emerge in many domains, with examples
ranging from end-use technology standards (e. g. the competition
between the AZERTY and the QWERTY keyboards, or between the VHS
and BETAMAX video standards), energy supply networks to expan-
sion pathways of regions once initial choices are made (Fujita etal.,
1999). Lock-ins are not ‘good’ or ‘bad’ per se (Shalizi and Lecocq,
2013), but identifying risks of ‘bad’ lock-ins and taking advantage of
possible ‘good’ lock-ins matters for policymaking, so that ex ante deci-
sions are not regretted ex post (Liebowitz and Margolis, 1995). The lit-
erature, however, underlines that lock-ins do not stem only from lack
of information. There are also many cases in which rational agents
might make decisions based only on part of the information available,
because of, inter alia, differences between local and global optimum,
time and resource constraints on the process or information symmetry
(Foray, 1997); which points to the process of decision making (see Sec-
tion 4.3.2 on Governance and Political Economy).
4�5�2�2 Examples and lessons from the technology
transition literature
Part of the literature on innovation (reviewed in Sections 3.11 and
4.3.6; technological change is reviewed in Section 5.6) adopts a broad,
systemic perspective to try to explain how new technologies emerge.
It thus provides examples of, and insights on how transition between
pathways can occur. In fact, changes in technologies, their causes, and
their implications for societies have been actively studied in social sci-
ences since the late 18th century by historians, economists, and sociolo-
gists. A common starting point is the observation that “technological
change is not a haphazard process, but proceeds in certain directions”
(Kemp, 1994). For example, processors tend to become faster, planes
to become lighter, etc. To characterize these regularities, scholars have
developed the concepts of technological regime (Nelson and Win-
ter, 2002) and technological paradigms (Dosi, 1982; Dosi and Nelson,
1994). Technological regimes refer to shared beliefs among technicians
about what is feasible. Technological paradigms refer to the selected
set of objects engineers are working on, and to the selected set of prob-
lems they choose to address. How technological regimes may change
(such as with the development of information technologies) is a sub-
ject of intense research. Radical innovations (e. g., the steam engine)
are seen as a necessary condition. But the drivers of radical innovation
themselves are not clearly understood. In addition, once an innovation
is present, the shift in technological regime is not a straightforward pro-
cess: the forces that maintain technological regimes (e. g., increasing
returns to scale, vested interests, network externalities) are not easy to
overcome — all the more so that new technologies are often less effi-
cient, in many respects, than existing ones, and competing technologies
may coexist for a while. History thus suggests that the diffusion of new
technologies is a slow process (Kemp, 1994; Fouquet, 2010).
More recent research over the past 20 years has yielded two major
perspectives on technology transitions (Truffer and Coenen, 2012): the
multi-level perspective on socio-technical systems (Geels, 2002) and
the concept of technological innovations systems (Bergek etal., 2008).
The multi-level perspective distinguishes three levels of analysis:
niche innovations, socio-technical regimes, and socio-technical land-
scape (Geels, 2002). A technological niche is the micro-level where
radical innovations emerge. Socio-technical regimes correspond to an
extended version of the technological regime discussed above. The
socio-technical landscape corresponds to the regulatory, institutional,
physical, and behavioural environment within which innovations
emerge. There is considerable inertia at this third level. Changes in
socio-technical regimes emerge from the interactions between these
three levels. According to Geels and Schot’s typology (2007), changes
in socio-technical regimes can follow four different paths. Transfor-
mation corresponds to cases in which moderate changes in the land-
scape occur at a time when niche innovations are not yet developed,
thus resulting in a relatively small change of direction of the develop-
ment pathway. An example of transformation occurred when munici-
pal sewer systems were implemented in Dutch cities (Geels, 2006).
De-alignment and realignment correspond to sudden changes in the
landscape that cause actors to lose faith in the regime. If no clear
replacement is ready yet, a large range of technologies may compete
until one finally dominates and a new equilibrium is reached. One
example is the transition from horse-powered vehicles to cars. If new
technologies are already available, on the other hand, a transition
substitution might occur, as in the case of the replacement of sailing
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ships by steamships between 1850 and 1920. Finally, a reconfigura-
tion occurs when innovations initially adopted as part of the current
regime progressively subvert it into a new one, an example of which
is the transition from traditional factories to mass production in the
United States.
The technological innovation systems approach (Bergek etal., 2008)
adopts a systemic perspective by considering all relevant actors, their
interactions, and the institutions relevant for innovation. Early work
in this approach argues that beside market failures, ‘system failures’
such as, inter alia, actor deficiencies, coordination deficits or conflicts
with existing institutional structures (institutional deficits) can explain
unsuccessful innovation (Jacobsson and Bergek, 2011). More recent
analysis focuses on core processes critical for innovation, such as
presence of entrepreneurial activities, learning, knowledge diffusion
through networks, etc. The technological innovation systems concept
was developed to inform public policy on how to better support tech-
nologies deemed sustainable with an increasing focus on ‘system inno-
vations’ as opposed to innovation in single technologies or products
(Truffer and Coenen, 2012).
4�5�2�3 Economic modelling of transitions between
pathways
As noted above (4.5.1), economic modelling is a major tool for analyz-
ing future development pathways. Models provide different types of
information about transition, depending on their features and on how
they are used. The present sub-section reviews the use of models for
studying transitions. See Section 6.2 for a review of modelling tools for
integrated assessment.
There are four increasingly complex ways of using economic mod-
els to analyze transitions between development pathways. The first
option — static modelling — consists of building plausible images of
the future at a given date and comparing them (comparative stat-
ics). The focus is on the internal consistency of each image, and on
the distance between them. Models without explicit representation
of time (e. g., input-output, partial equilibrium, or static general equi-
librium models) are sufficient. Static models can provide insights on
the sustainable character of the long-term images, to the extent that
the model captures critical variables for sustainability such as natural
resources use or impact of economic activity on the environment (e. g.,
GHG emissions). However, national accounts typically add up multiple
products with very different material content, very different energy
contents, and very different prices. Thus, constructing robust relation-
ships between aggregate monetary indicators and physical flows
requires in-depth analysis. Similarly, static models can provide insights
on the social components of sustainability to the extent they include
some form of representation of the distribution of economic activity
within the society, notably across income groups (see Section 4.4.1).
Again, the associated data challenge is significant. By construction, on
the other hand, static models do not provide insights on the pathways
from the present on to each possible future, let alone on the transitions
between pathways.
Dynamic models are needed to depict the pathway towards desirable
(or undesirable) long-term futures. Still, the relevance of dynamic mod-
els for discussing transitions depends on their structure, content, and
way they are used. A large part of the modelling literature on climate
change mitigation relies on neoclassical growth models with exog-
enous (Swan, 1956; Solow, 1956) or endogenous (Koopmans, 1965;
Cass, 1965) savings rate. In those models, long-term growth is ulti-
mately driven by the sum of population growth and exogenous total
factor productivity growth (exogenous technical change). In the sim-
plest version of the neoclassical model, there is thus only one ‘path-
way’ to speak of, as determined by human fertility and human inge-
nuity. Any departure from this pathway resorbs itself endogenously
through adjustment of the relative weights of capital and labour in
the production function, and through adjustment of the savings rate
(when endogenous). Empirically, neoclassical growth models have
limited ability to explain observed short-term growth patterns (e. g.,
Easterly, 2002).
Modelling of processes is needed to enrich discussions about transi-
tions by differentiatiating short-term economic processes from long-
term processes. The general point is that the technical, economic, and
social processes often exhibit more rigidities in the short- than in the
long-run. As Solow (2000) suggests, at short-term scales, “something
sort of ‘Keynesian’ is a good approximation, and surely better than
anything straight ‘neoclassical’. At very long time scales, the interesting
questions are best studied in a neoclassical framework and attention
to the Keynesian side of things would be a minor distraction”. There is
a long tradition of debates in economics on the degree to which pro-
duction technologies and wages should be considered flexible or rigid
in the short- and medium-run, with potentially very different results
for the assessment of mitigation policies (Rezai etal., 2013), (Guivarch
etal., 2011). Other important rigidities include, inter alia, long-lived
physical capital, the premature replacement of which is typically very
costly, and the dynamics of which have important implications for the
costs, timing, and direction of climate policies (e. g. Lecocq etal., 1998;
Wing, 1999); rigidities associated with the location of households and
firms, changes of which take time; or rigidities associated with prefer-
ences of individuals and with institutions. Presence of rigidities may
also lead to bifurcations towards different long-term outcome (i. e.,
equilibrium-dependence and not just path-dependence as in section
4.5.2) (See e. g. Hallegatte etal., 2007).
Recognizing uncertainty is a further key element for enriching the
analysis of transitions, relaxing the full information hypothesis under
which many models are run. If information increases over time, there is
a rationale for a sequential decision making framework (Arrow etal.,
1996), in which choices made at one point can be re-considered in light
of new information. Thus, the issue is no longer to select a pathway
once and for all, but to make the best first-step (or short-term) deci-
sion, given the structure of uncertainties and the potential for increa-
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sing information over time — factors which are especially relevant in
the context of climate change. Inertia plays an especially important
role in this context, as the more choices made at one point constrain
future opportunity sets, the more difficult it becomes to make advan-
tage of new information (e. g.,Ha-Duong etal., 1997). Another way by
which uncertainty can be captured in models is to abandon the inter-
temporal optimization objective altogether and use simulation models
instead, with decisions made at any time based on imperfect expecta-
tions (Scrieciu etal., 2013). Such shift has major implications for the
transition pathway (Sassi etal., 2010), but results strongly depend on
how expectations and decisions under uncertainty are represented.
Ideally, models that produce development pathways should thus (1)
be framed in a consistent macroeconomic framework (since a path-
way is holistic), (2) impose relevant technical constraints in each sector,
such as assumptions about the process of technical change, (3) capture
the key relationships between economic activity and the environment,
e. g., energy and natural resources consumption or greenhouse gases
emissions, (4) have a horizon long enough to assess ‘sustainability’ — a
long-term horizon which also implies, incidentally, that the model must
be able to represent structural and technical change — yet (5) recog-
nize short-term economic processes critical for assessing transition
pathways, such as market imbalance and rigidities, all this while (6)
providing an explicit representation of how economic activity is distrib-
uted within the society, and how this retrofits into the growth pattern,
and (7) representing key uncertainties.
No model today meets all these specifications. Current models can be
classified along two major fault lines: bottom-up vs. top-down, and
long-term vs. short-term. By design, computable general equilibrium
(CGE) models provide a comprehensive macroeconomic framework,
and they can be harnessed to analyze distributional issues, at least
amongst income groups, but they typically fail to incorporate key techni-
cal constraints. Conversely, bottom-up engineering models provide a
detailed account of technical potentials and limitations, but their macro-
engine, if at all, is most often rudimentary. Emerging ‘hybrid’ models
developed in the context of climate policy assessment are steps towards
closing this gap (Hourcade etal., 2006). A similar rift occurs with regard
to time horizon. Growth models like Solow’s are designed to capture
key features of long-term development pathways, but they do not
include short- or medium-term economic processes such as market
rigidities. On the other hand, short-term models (econometric or struc-
tural) will meet this requirement but are not designed to look deep in
the future. Again, emerging models include short- / medium-term pro-
cesses into analysis of growth in the long-run (see e. g., Barker and Ser-
ban Scrieciu, 2010), but this pretty much remains an open research field.
4.6 Mitigative capacity and
mitigation, and links
to adaptive capacity
and adaptation
4�6�1 Mitigation and adaptation measures,
capacities, and development pathways
Even though adaptation and mitigation are generally approached as
distinct domains of scientific research and practice (Biesbroek etal.,
2009) (as reflected, for example, in the IPCC separate Working Groups
II and III), a recognition of the deep linkages between mitigation and
adaptation has gradually emerged. Initially, mitigation and adaptation
were analyzed primarily in terms of techno-economic considerations.
But growing attention has been directed at the underlying capacities,
first with respect to adaptation, and later -and less fully- with respect
Box 4�4 | Characterizing the sustainability of development pathways
Constructing and modelling forward-looking development path-
ways is one thing, evaluating how they fare in terms of sustain-
ability within and beyond the time horizon of the modelling is
another. Two questions can actually be distinguished (Asheim,
2007). One is to predict whether the current situation (welfare,
environment) will be preserved in the future: are we on a sus-
tained development pathway, i. e., a pathway without downturn
in welfare or environmental objectives? This question is answered
by looking at the evolution of the target variables within the
time horizon of the scenario, and what happens beyond the
horizon remains undetermined. Another question is to determine
whether the current generation’s decisions leave it possible for
future generations to achieve a sustained pathway: is a sustained
development pathway possible given what the current genera-
tion does? Unlike the former question, the latter does not require
predicting the future generations’ decisions, only their future
constraints and opportunities. Showing the existence of a sus-
tained pathway is then an argument in favour of the compatibility
of current decisions with future sustainability. Some indicators of
sustainability such as genuine savings (see Box 4.2) are meant to
provide an answer based on the current evolution of (economic,
social, environmental) capital stocks and can also be used for the
evaluation of scenarios that depict these stocks. In practice, sus-
tainability analysis (of either type) is not frequent in the scenario-
building community, though multi-criteria analysis of scenarios
has been gaining ground in recent years (see e. g.,GEA, 2012).
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to mitigation, (Grothmann and Patt, 2005; Burch and Robinson, 2007;
Winkler etal., 2007; Goklany, 2007; Pelling, 2010).
This attention has necessitated a broadening of the scope of analy-
sis well beyond narrow techno-economic considerations, to the social,
political, economic, and cultural domains, as ultimately, this is where
the underlying determinants of mitigative and adaptive capacity lie.
Following the literature enumerated above, a non-exhaustive list of
these underlying determinants include: the level and distribution of
wealth, robustness and legitimacy of institutions, availability of cred-
ible information, existence and reliability of infrastructure, access to
and adequacy of technologies and systems of innovation, effective
governance, social cohesion and security, distribution of decision-
making power among actors, conditions of equity and empowerment
among citizens, and the opportunity costs of action, as well as individ-
ual cognitive factors, including relevant skills, knowledge and cultural
framings. The fact that mitigative and adaptive capacities share and
are similarly affected by these underlying determinants highlights their
similarity, blurring the distinction between them and leading some
scholars to argue that there is simply ‘response capacity’ (Tompkins
and Adger, 2005; Wilbanks, 2005; Burch and Robinson, 2007). Because
response capacity is directly shaped by these underlying technological,
economic, institutional, socio-cultural, and political determinants, it is
in other words directly shaped by the overall development pathway,
which is the combined product of those same inter-related determi-
nants. This dependence of response capacity on development pathway
is underscored by the strong parallel between its determinants (out-
lined above) and the defining dimensions of a development pathway
(discussed in Sections 4.3 and 4.5). Indeed, response capacity is deter-
mined much more by the overall development pathway than by tar-
geted climate-specific policies. The academic consensus on this point
has been clearly reflected in the AR4 (IPCC, 2007), in WGI Chapter 12
in the case of mitigative capacity, and WGII Chapter 18 in the case of
adaptive capacity. Of course, more nuanced and site-specific assess-
ments of the determinants of such capacity can provide further useful
insight (see e. g., Keskitalo et al, 2011).
Moreover, there is consensus that an effective transition toward a SD
pathway in particular can more effectively foster response capacity
(IPCC, 2007; Matthew and Hammill, 2009; Parry, 2009; Halsnaes etal.,
2011; Harry and Morad, 2013). There are various elements of fostering
a transition toward SD that naturally accord with the creation of miti-
gative and adaptive capacity, including, for example, the establishment
of innovation systems that are supportive of environmental and social
priorities, the support for adaptive ecosystem management and con-
servation, the strengthening of institutions and assets to support food
and water security and public health, and the support for procedurally
equitable systems of governance (Banuri, 2009; Barbier, 2011; Bowen
etal., 2011; Bowen and Friel, 2012). Mitigation and adaptation out-
comes can of course still be expected to depend on the extent to which
explicit efforts are taken to implement and mainstream climate change
policies and measures, as well as on the manner in which a particular
SD approach may evolve — with more or less emphasis on economic,
social, or environmental objectives (Giddings etal., 2002; Beg etal.,
2002; Grist, 2008; Halsnæs etal., 2008).
The centrality of mitigative and adaptive capacity to SD is highlighted
by the growing attention to the idea that the Earth system has moved
from the Holocene into the Anthropocene (Steffen etal., 2011), where
societies are the most important drivers of the Earth’s dynamics. Miti-
gative and adaptive capacity can be seen in general terms, i. e., not just
with respect to GHG emissions and climate impacts, but all anthropo-
genic environmental pressures and impacts from ecosystem degrada-
tion. In this view, mitigative and adaptive capacity are central to sus-
tainable ecosystem management (Holling, 1978; Walters and Holling,
1990; McFadden etal., 2011; Williams, 2011), and thus fundamental
to SD (Chapin etal., 2010; Folke etal., 2011b; Polasky et al., 2011;
Biermann etal., 2012). Some scholars interpret this as a fundamental
redefinition of development calling for transformational shifts based
on re-imagining possibilities for future development pathways (Pelling,
2010; Jackson, 2011a; Kates etal., 2012; Ehrlich etal., 2012).
Scholarship exploring the links between mitigation, adaptation, socio-
ecological resilience and SD more generally, has generally pointed
toward the existence of (potential) synergies and tradeoffs within and
across policy sectors and across implementation measures (Gallopín,
2006; Rosenzweig and Tubiello, 2007; Vogel etal., 2007; Boyd etal.,
2009; Thornton and Gerber, 2010; Adger etal., 2011; Warren, 2011;
Lal etal., 2011; Vermeulen etal., 2012; Denton and Wilbanks, 2014;
Hill, 2013). These studies show that, in spite of mitigative and adap-
tive capacities being so closely intertwined with each other and with
SD, the relationship between mitigation and adaptation measures is
more ambiguous and, in line with the AR4, suggest that outcomes are
highly dependent on the measures and the context in which they are
undertaken, with some policy sectors being more conducive to syner-
gies than others.
In the agricultural sector, for example, scholars have for many years
highlighted the potential of fostering both mitigation and adapta-
tion by supporting traditional and biodiverse agro-ecological sys-
tems around the world (Campbell, 2011; Altieri and Nicholls, 2013,
and see Section 11.5). A recent modelling exercise suggests that
investing substantially in adapting agriculture to climate change in
some regions — Asia and North America — can result in substantial
mitigation co-benefits, while the latter may be insignificant in Africa
(Lobell etal., 2013). There are empirical studies where interventions
in agricultural systems have led to positive mitigation and adaptation
outcomes — or vice versa — (Kenny, 2011; Wollenberg, 2012; Bryan
et al., 2012), or where synergies between adaptation and mitiga-
tion have not materialized due to, for example, limited scientific and
policy knowledge, as well as institutional and farmers’ own financial
and cognitive constraints (Haden etal., 2012; Arbuckle Jr. etal., 2013;
Bryan etal., 2013). In forestry, the links between fostering mitigation
strategies, e. g., through planting trees, developing agro-forestry sys-
tems or conserving diverse ecosystems, and the adaptation of both
forests and people to climate change have been widely acknowledged
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and the possibility of effective linkages in policy and action have also
been identified (Locatelli etal., 2011; Schoeneberger etal., 2012; Mori
etal., 2013). Methods for identifying tradeoffs between mitigation and
adaptation at policy and implementation levels and to foster legiti-
mate decision making have also been recently developed (Laukkonen
etal., 2009; Janetos etal., 2012).
This evolving literature highlights the need to examine adaptation
and mitigation for their SD implications, and ultimately to mainstream
them in broader development policy. It also explains the parallel emer-
gence of environmental governance research about reforming existing
or developing institutions in different policy domains to meet this need
(Folke etal., 2005; Folke, 2007; Brunner and Lynch, 2010). Recent stud-
ies highlight the organizational, institutional, financial, and knowledge
barriers to the development of effective governance for mitigation
and adaptation in general government policy (Picketts et al., 2012),
as well as in particular policy sectors, e. g., in forestry (Johnston and
Hesseln, 2012); in health (Bowen etal., 2013); or in urban planning
(Barton, 2013). Others identify the multi-scale, inter-connected, and
dynamic nature of many climate issues and their associated responses
as a key barrier to action, particularly at local level (Romero-Lankao,
2012). Analyses of the effectiveness of public-private partnerships and
other forms of multi-actor cooperation to mainstream both mitigation
and adaptation measures in a given sector and context also reveal
the challenging nature of such endeavour (Pattberg, 2010; Pinkse and
Kolk, 2012).
There is ample scope to improve response capacity in nations and
communities by putting SD at the core of development priorities,
despite the considerable governance challenges to mainstreaming
mitigation and adaptation measures across policy sectors, collective
and individual behaviour, and to exploit possible synergies and con-
front tradeoffs. Nonetheless, it remains the case that the variation
of mitigative and adaptive capacity between different nations — and
communities within them — is a function of the vast disparities in the
determinants of such capacity. These differences in capacity are in turn
driven to a significant degree by differences in development pathways
and, specifically, level of development. This is a primary reason why
the issue of burden sharing among nations features so prominently in
consideration of international cooperation on climate change gener-
ally, and the UNFCCC in particular, as discussed further in the follow-
ing section.
4�6�2 Equity and burden sharing in the
c ontext of international cooperation on
climate
Chapter 3 (Sections 3.2 to 3.5) introduced the general equity principles
in the philosophical literature and their relevance to climate change
including burden sharing. This section briefly reviews the extensive lit-
erature regarding burden sharing in a global climate regime. If focuses
first on the equity principles as they are invoked in the literature, which
emphasises those laid out in the UNFCCC. It then reviews several cat-
egories of burden sharing frameworks. While the academic literature
uses the term ‘burden sharing’, it is understood that mitigation action
entails not only burdens but also benefits.
4�6�2�1 Equity principles pertinent to burden sharing in
an international climate regime
The UNFCCC clearly invokes the vision of equitable burden sharing
among Parties toward achieving the Convention’s objective. While
Parties had not articulated a specific burden sharing arrangement in
quantified detail, they had established an initial allocation of obliga-
tions among countries with explicit references to the need for equi-
table contributions. All Parties adopted general commitments to miti-
gate, adapt, and undertake other climate-related actions, but distinct
categories of countries reflecting level of development were identi-
fied and assigned specific obligations. Developed countries (listed in
Annex I) were distinguished from developing countries and obliged to
“take the lead on combating climate change and the adverse effects
thereof” (Article 3.1), noting “the need for equitable and appropriate
contributions by each of these Parties to the global effort regarding
[the UNFCCC] objective” (Article 4.2(a)). A subset of Annex I coun-
tries consisting of the wealthier developed countries (listed in Annex
II) were further obliged to provide financial and technological support
“to developing countries to enable them to effectively implement their
UNFCCC commitments” (Article 4.7), noting that they “shall take into
account … the importance of appropriate burden sharing among the
developed country Parties”.
While Parties’ equitable contributions are elaborated further in subse-
quent UNFCCC decisions and under the Durban Platform for Enhanced
Action, an explicit arrangement for equitable burden sharing remains
unspecified. Because there is no absolute standard of equity, countries
(like people) will tend to advocate interpretations which tend to favour
their (often short term) interests (Heyward, 2007; Lange etal., 2010;
Kals and Maes, 2011). It is thus tempting to say that no reasoned reso-
lution is possible and to advocate a purely procedural resolution (Mül-
ler, 1999). However, there is a basic set of shared ethical premises and
precedents that apply to the climate problem, and impartial reasoning
(as behind a Rawlsian (Rawls, 2000) “veil of ignorance”) can help put
bounds on the plausible interpretations of equity in the burden sharing
context. Even in the absence of a formal, globally agreed burden shar-
ing framework, such principles are important in establishing expec-
tations of what may be reasonably required of different actors. They
influence the nature of the public discourse, the concessions individu-
als are willing to grant, the demands citizens are inclined to impose on
their own governments, and the terms in which governments represent
their negotiating positions both to other countries and to their own
citizens. From the perspective of an international climate regime, many
analysts have considered principles for equitable burden sharing, (Rose
1990; Hayes and Smith 1993; Baer etal. 2000; B. Metz et al. 2002;
Ringius, Torvanger, and Underdal 2002; Aldy, Barrett, and Stavins 2003;
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Ghersi, Hourcade, and Criqui 2003; Gardiner 2004; Caney 2005; Caney
2009; Caney 2010; Heyward 2007; E. A. Page 2008; Vanderheiden
2008; Klinsky and Dowlatabadi 2009; Winkler etal. 2011). Equitable
burden sharing has been most frequently applied to costs of mitiga-
tion, though similar issues arise with regard to adaptation (Baer, 2006;
Paavola and Adger, 2006; Adger, 2006; Jagers and Duus-Otterstrom,
2008; Dellink etal., 2009; Grasso, 2010; Hartzell-Nichols, 2011). Here
these equity principles are given along four key dimensions — respon-
sibility, capacity, equality, and the right to sustainable development,
expanding on the philosophical arguments in Sections 3.2 – 3.4.
Responsibility
In the climate context, responsibility is widely taken as a fundamental
principle relating responsibility for contributing to climate change (via
emissions of GHGs) to the responsibility for solving the problem. The
literature extensively discusses it, distinguishing moral responsibility
from causal responsibility, and considering the moral significance of
knowledge of harmful effects (Neumayer, 2000; Caney, 2005; Müller
etal., 2009). Common sense ethics (and legal practice) hold persons
responsible for harms or risks they knowingly impose or could have
reasonably foreseen, and, in certain cases, regardless of whether they
could have been foreseen. The notion of responsibility is thus closely
connected to the Polluter Pays Principle (PPP), and burden sharing
principles that derive from it hold that countries should be accountable
for their greenhouse gas emissions. This is a common interpretation of
the UNFCCC phrase “common but differentiated responsibilities” (Har-
ris, 1999; Rajamani, 2000), given its similarity to the more explicit Rio
Declaration (see Section 4.1).
Responsibility is taken by some to include present and past emissions
(Grübler and Fujii, 1991; Smith, 1991; Neumayer, 2000; Rive et al.,
2006; Wei etal., 2012). This has been justified on three main grounds.
First, climate change results from the stock of accumulated historic
emissions. Second, the total amount of greenhouse gases that can
be emitted to the atmosphere must be constrained (to a level deter-
mined by society’s choice of global climate stabilization goal (see WGI
AR5), and thus constitutes a finite common resource (often loosely
referred to as the ‘atmospheric space’ or the ‘carbon budget’). Users of
this resource — whether current or historical — should be accountable
for depleting the resource and precluding the access of others. Third,
historical emissions reflect the use of a resource from which benefits
have been derived, i. e., wealth, fixed capital, infrastructure, and other
assets. These benefits constitute a legacy based in part on consum-
ing a common resource that (1) should be paid for, and (2) provides
a basis for mitigative capacity (Shue, 1999; Caney, 2006, 2010). The
latter argument carries the notion of responsibility further back in time,
assigning responsibility for the emissions of previous generations, to
the extent that present generations have inherited benefits. This argu-
ment links responsibility with the capacity principle discussed below
(Meyer and Roser, 2010; Gardiner, 2011a; Meyer, 2012). If conventional
development continues, the relative responsibility of some nations that
currently have relatively low cumulative emissions would match and
exceed by mid-century the relative responsibility of some nations who
currently have high responsibility (Höhne and Blok, 2005; Botzen etal.,
2008), on an aggregate — if not per capita — basis. Such projections
illustrate that the relative distribution of responsibility among coun-
tries can vary substantially over time, and that a burden sharing frame-
work must dynamically reflect evolving realities if they are to faithfully
reflect ethical principles. They also may provide a basis for understand-
ing where mitigation might productively be undertaken, though not
necessarily who should be obliged to bear the costs.
Each nation’s responsibility for emissions is typically defined (as
in IPCC inventory methodologies) in terms of emissions within the
nation’s territorial boundary. An alternative interpretation (Fermann,
1994), which has become more salient as international trade has
grown more important, is to include emissions embodied in interna-
tionally traded goods consumed by a given nation. Recent studies
(Lenzen etal., 2007; Pan etal., 2008; Peters etal., 2011) have provided
a quantitative basis for better understanding the implications of a con-
sumption-based approach to assessing responsibility. In general, at the
aggregate level, developed countries are net importers of emissions,
and developing countries are net exporters (see Sections 5.3.3.2 and
14.3.4). The relevance of this to burden sharing may depend on further
factors, such as the distribution between the exporting and importing
countries of the benefits of carbon-intensive production, and the pres-
ence of other climate policies such as border carbon tariffs (see Section
13.8.1 and 14.4.1), as well as the development of the relevant data
sources (see also Sections 3.9 and 4.4). Many analysts have suggested
that all emissions are not equivalent in how they translate to respon-
sibility, distinguishing the categories of ‘survival emissions’, ‘develop-
ment emissions’, and ‘luxury’ emissions (Agarwal and Narain, 1991;
Shue, 1993; Baer etal., 2009; Rao and Baer, 2012).
Determining responsibility for emissions in order to allocate respon-
sibility raises methodological questions. In addition to the stan-
dard questions about data availability and reliability, there are also
equity-related questions. For instance, there are various rationales
for determining how far in the past to include historical emissions.
One rationale is that the 1990s should be the earliest date, reflect-
ing the timing of the FAR and the creation of a global regime that
imposed obligations to curb emissions (Posner and Sunstein, 2007).
Some argue that the date should be earlier, corresponding to the time
that climate change became reasonably suspected of being a prob-
lem, and greenhouse gas emissions thus identifiable as a pollutant
worthy of policy action. For example, one might argue for the 1970s
or 1960s, based on the published warnings issued by scientific advi-
sory panels to the United States presidents Johnson (U. S. National
Research Council Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, 1966) and
Carter (MacDonald etal., 1979), and the first G7 Summit Declara-
tion highlighting climate change as a problem and seeking to prevent
further increases of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Group of 7
Heads of State, 1979). Others argue that a still earlier date is appro-
priate because the damage is still caused, the stock depleted, and the
benefits derived, regardless of whether there is a legal requirement
or knowledge.
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Another issue is the question of accounting for the residence time of
emissions into the atmosphere, as an alternative to simply considering
cumulative emissions over time. In the case of carbon dioxide, respon-
sibility could include past emissions even when they are no longer resi-
dent in the atmosphere, on the grounds that those emissions (1) have
contributed to the warming and climate damages experienced so far,
and upon which further warming and damages will be additive, and (2)
have been removed from the atmosphere predominantly to the oceans,
where they are now causing ocean acidification, which is itself an envi-
ronmental problem (See WGI AR5, Chapters 3 and 6).
Capacity (or, Ability to Pay)
A second principle for allocating effort arises from the capacity to con-
tribute to solving the climate problem (Shue, 1999; Caney, 2010). Gen-
erally, capacity is interpreted to mean that the more one can afford to
contribute, the more one should, just as societies tend to distribute the
costs of preserving or generating societal public goods; i. e., most soci-
eties have progressive income taxation. This view can be applied at the
level of countries, or at a lower level, recognizing inequalities between
individuals. Smith et al. (1993) suggested GDP as an income-based
measure of ability-to-pay, subject to a threshold value, determined by
an indicator of quality of life. This was developed in Kartha etal. (2009)
and Baer etal. (2010), taking into account intra-national disparities.
As discussed in Section 4.6.1, response capacity refers to more than
just financial wherewithal, encompassing also other characteristics
that affect a nation’s ability to contribute to solving the climate prob-
lem. It recognizes that effective responses require not only financial
resources, but also technological, institutional, and human capacity.
This issue has been treated by Winkler, Letete, and Marquard (2011) by
considering the Human Development Index as a complement to income
in considering capacity. Capacity, even in this broader sense, can be
distinguished from mitigation potential, which refers to the presence
of techno-economic opportunities for reducing emissions due to, for
example, having renewable energy resources that can be exploited, a
legacy of high-carbon infrastructure that can be replaced, or a rapidly
growing capital stock that can be built based on low-carbon invest-
ments. Mitigation potential is a useful characteristic for determining
where emissions reductions can be located geographically for reasons
of cost-effectiveness, but this can be distinguished from burden shar-
ing per se, in the sense of determining on normative grounds which
country should pay for those reductions. This distinction is reflected
in the economist’s notion that economic efficiency can be decoupled
from equity (Coase, 1960; Manne and Stephan, 2005).
Equality
Equality means many things, but a common understanding in interna-
tional law is that each human being has equal moral worth and thus
should have equal rights. Some argue this applies to access to common
global resources, expressed in the perspective that each person should
have an equal right to emit (Grubb, 1989; Agarwal and Narain, 1991).
This equal right is applied by some analysts to current and future flows,
and by some to the cumulative stock as well. (See further below.)
Some analysts (Caney, 2009) have noted, however, that a commitment
to equality does not necessarily translate into an equal right to emit.
Egalitarians generally call for equality of a total package of ‘resources’
(or ‘capabilities’ or ‘opportunities for welfare’) and thus may support
inequalities in one good to compensate for inequalities in other goods
(Starkey, 2011). For example, one might argue that poor people who
are disadvantaged with respect to access to resources such as food
or drinking water may be entitled to a greater than per capita share
of emissions rights. Second, some individuals may have greater needs
than others. For example, poorer people may have less access to alter-
natives to fossil fuels (or unsustainably harvested wood fuel) because
of higher cost or less available technologies, and thus be entitled to a
larger share of emission rights.
Others have suggested that equality can be interpreted as requir-
ing equal sacrifices, either by all parties, or by parties who are equal
along some relevant dimension. Then, to the extent that parties are
not equal, more responsibility (Gonzalez Miguez and Santhiago de
Oliveira, 2011) or capacity (Jacoby etal., 2009) would imply more obli-
gation, all else being equal.
Right to development
The right to development appears in international law in the UN Dec-
laration on the Right to Development, the Rio Declaration, and the
Vienna Declaration, and is closely related to the notion of need as an
equity principle, in that it posits that the interests of poor people and
poor countries in meeting basic needs are a global priority (Andre-
assen and Marks, 2007). The UNFCCC acknowledges a right to pro-
mote sustainable development, and “the legitimate priority needs
of developing countries for the achievement of sustained economic
growth and the eradication of poverty” (UNFCCC, 2002) and recog-
nizes that “economic and social development and poverty eradica-
tion are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country
Parties” (p.3).
In the context of equitable burden sharing, a minimalist interpretation
of a right to development is a right to an exemption from obligations
for poor Parties (Ringius etal., 2002) on the basis that meeting basic
needs has clear moral precedence over the need to solve the climate
problem, or, at the very least, it should not be hindered by measures
taken to address climate change.
4�6�2�2 Frameworks for equitable burden sharing
There are various ways of interpreting the above equity principles and
applying them to the design of burden sharing frameworks. It is helpful
to categorize them into two broad classes. ‘Resource-sharing’ frame-
works are aimed at applying ethical principles to establish a basis
for sharing the agreed global ‘carbon budget’. ‘Effort-sharing’ frame-
works are aimed at sharing the costs of the global climate response.
The resource-sharing frame is the natural point of departure if climate
change is posed as a tragedy of the commons type of collective action
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problem; if it is posed as a free-rider type of collective action prob-
lem, the effort-sharing perspective is more natural. Neither of these
framings is objectively the ‘correct’ one, just as neither collective action
framing of the climate change problem is correct. Both can inform poli-
cymakers’ judgments in different ways. Indeed, the two approaches
are complementary: any given resource-sharing framework implies a
particular distribution of the effort, and conversely the opposite is true.
In either case, burden sharing frameworks are typically formulated as
emission entitlements to be used in trading system or global climate
fund, which enables a cost-effective distribution of the actual miti-
gation efforts. Through such mechanisms, countries with obligations
greater than their domestic mitigation potential can fund reductions in
countries with obligations that are less than their domestic mitigation
potential (see Sections 6.3.6 and 13.4.3).
One important dimension along which both resource-sharing and
effort-sharing proposals can be compared is the number of categories
into which countries are grouped. The UNFCCC in fact had three cat-
egories — Annex I, Annex II (the OECD countries within Annex I), and
non-Annex I. Many of the proposals discussed below reproduce these
distinctions. Others increase the number of ‘bins’, to as many as six
(Winkler etal., 2006). Finally, many others eliminate any qualitative
categories, instead allocating emissions rights or obligations on the
basis of a continuous index.
Resource sharing approaches
The resource-sharing approach starts by acknowledging that the
global ‘carbon budget’ is bounded, with its size defined by the agreed
climate stabilization target. The most straightforward resource-shar-
ing approach is an equal per capita approach (Grubb, 1990; Agarwal
and Narain, 1991; Jamieson, 2001), which is premised on the equal
rights to the atmospheric commons to all individuals, and allocates
emission allowances to each country in proportion to its population.
In response to the concern that an equal per capita allocation would
provide an incentive for more rapid population growth, some ana-
lysts have argued that the effect would be negligible in comparison
to other factors affecting population, and others have proposed solu-
tions such as holding population constant as of some agreed date
(Jamieson, 2001), establishing standardized growth expectations
(Cline, 1992), or allocating emission in proportion only to adult popu-
lation (Grubb, 1990).
In response to the concern that unrealistically rapid reductions would
be required in those countries whose current emissions are far above
the global average, some have proposed a period of transition from
grandfathered emission rights (i. e., allocated in proportion to current
emissions) to equal per capita emission rights (Grubb and Sebenius,
1992; Welsch, 1993; Meyer, 2004). This rationale applies specifically
to a framework intended to determine actual emission pathways, in
which case an immediate per capita distribution would impose unreal-
istically abrupt changes from present emission levels. For a framework
intended to assign transferable rights to emit, rather than actual emis-
sions, the rationale is questionable: the opportunity to acquire addi-
tional allocations through emissions trading or some other transfer
system would allow a cost-effective transition and lessen, though not
eliminate, the political challenges of an immediate equal per capita
allocation.
A variant on the above that aims to address the concern that many
developing countries would have to reduce their emissions from
already very low levels is “Common but Differentiated Convergence”
(Höhne etal., 2006), under which a developing country is required to
begin converging only once its per capita emissions exceed a specified
(and progressively declining) threshold. Chakravarty etal. (2009) put
forward a variant that looked beyond average national indicators of
emissions by examining the distribution of emissions across individuals
at different income levels within countries.
Extending the concept of equal per capita rights to include both the
historical and future carbon budget gives the “equal cumulative per
capita emission rights” family of frameworks (Bode, 2004; den Elzen
etal., 2005; German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2009; Ober-
heitmann, 2010; Höhne et al., 2011; CASS / DRC Joint Project Team,
2011; Jayaraman etal., 2011; Pan etal., 2013). These frameworks vary,
for example, in their choice of the initial date for historical emissions,
the way they deal with growing populations, their treatment of luxury
versus survival emissions, and their way of distributing a budget over
time. As some countries (which tend to be higher income countries
that industrialized earlier) have consumed more than their equal per
capita share of the historical global budget, this excess use is offered
as an argument for obliging them to provide financial and technologi-
cal resources to other countries that have used less than their historical
share. This obligation has been linked to the notion of a ‘carbon debt’
or ‘climate debt’ (Pickering and Barry, 2012), and framed as a sub-
set of a larger ‘ecological debt’ (Roberts and Parks, 2009; Goeminne
and Paredis, 2010), which some analyses have attempted to quantify
(Smith, 1991; Srinivasan etal., 2008; Cranston etal., 2010).
Effort sharing approaches
‘Effort sharing’ frameworks seek to fairly divide the costs of reducing
emissions to an agreed level. (Effort sharing approaches can also be
applied to adaptation costs whereas resource sharing approaches can-
not.) Many of the philosophers engaged with the question of burden
sharing in the climate regime have argued that obligations should be
proportional in some fashion to responsibility and capacity (see, for
example the analyses of Shue, 1993; or Caney, 2005).
An early effort-sharing approach was the Brazilian proposal using
historic responsibility for emissions and thus global temperature rise
as a basis for setting Kyoto targets. This approach has been quantita-
tively analyzed (Höhne and Blok, 2005) and recently discussed in the
global political context (Gonzalez Miguez and Santhiago de Oliveira,
2011). Other approaches have used capacity based on indicators such
as GDP per capita (Wada etal., 2012) as a basis for effort-sharing, or
have combined capacity and responsibility (Winkler etal., 2006). Some
have included minimal form of a right to development by identifying
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a threshold of development below which income and emissions are
not included in a nation’s capacity or responsibility (Cao, 2008; Kartha
etal., 2009; Yue and Wang, 2012).
The quantitative implications of a number of burden sharing frame-
works are presented for several regions in Section 6.3.6.6. The frame-
works are grouped into six categories, corresponding either to one
of the underlying burden sharing principles (responsibility, capability,
equality, right to development), or a combination of them. It is impor-
tant to note that several of the approaches are based on consider-
ations other than equity principles. For example, several allocate allow-
ances based on grandfathered emissions levels, with a transition to
an equity-based allocation only over several decades or in some cases
with no such transition. Others allocate allowances in proportion to
GDP, while others include mitigation potential as one basis in addition
to equity principles.
4.7 Integration of framing
issues in the context of
sustainable development
Chapters 2 and 3 of this report review the framing issues related to risk
and uncertainty (Chapter 2) and social, economic, and ethical consider-
ations guiding policy (Chapter 3). They examine how these issues bear
on climate policy, both on the mitigation and on the adaptation side of
our response to the challenge of climate change. Their general analysis
is also directly relevant to the understanding of SD and equity goals.
This section briefly examines how the concepts reviewed in these
chapters shed light on the topic of the present chapter.
4�7�1 Risk and uncertainty in sustainability
evaluation
The sustainability ideal seeks to minimize risks that compromise future
human development (Sections 4.2 and 4.5). This objective is less ambi-
tious than maximizing an expected value of social welfare over the
whole future. It focuses on avoiding setbacks on development, and is
therefore well in line with Chapter 2 (Section 2.5.1) highlighting the dif-
ficulty of applying the standard decision model based on expected util-
ity in the context of climate policy. It is directly akin to the methods of
risk management listed there (Sections 2.5.2 – 2.5.7), in particular those
focusing on worst-case scenarios. The literature on adaptation has simi-
larly emphasized the concept of resilience, which is the ability of a sys-
tem to preserve its functions in a risky and changing environment (WGII
Section 2.5 and Sections 20.2 – 20.6; Folke etal., 2010; Gallopin, 2006).
This chapter has reviewed the actors and determinants of support
for policies addressing the climate challenge (Sections 4.3 and 4.6).
Among the relevant considerations, one must include how risk percep-
tions shape the actors’ understanding of threats to sustainability and
willingness to take action. Chapter 2 (Section 2.4) has described how
framing and affective associations can be effective and manipulative,
how absence or presence of a direct experience of climate extremes
makes individuals distort probabilities, and how gradual changes are
easy to underestimate.
Risk and uncertainty are also relevant to the dimension of equity, in
relation to sustainability, because various regions of the world and
communities within those regions experience unequal degrees of cli-
mate risk and uncertainty. Better information about the distribution of
risks between regions and countries would affect the policy response
and negotiations. Lecocq and Shalizi (2007) argue that the absence of
information about the location and extent of impacts raises incentives
for mitigation, and Lecocq and Hourcade (2012) show that the optimal
level of mitigation may also increase.
Incorporating risk in the evaluation of sustainability of a development
pathway is challenging and has been analyzed in a small literature. In
particular, Baumgärtner and Quaas (2009) and Martinet (2011) propose
to define thresholds for well-being or for various natural or man-made
stocks and to assess sustainability by the probability that thresholds will
be crossed in the foreseeable future. However, a decision maker may
not find it sufficient to check that the risk of unsustainability is below a
given threshold, and may also want to know the likelihood of the bad
scenarios and the harm incurred by the population in these scenarios.
4�7�2 Socio-economic evaluation
Chapter 3 has reviewed the principles of social and economic evalu-
ation and equity in a general way. In 3.6.1 it recalls that there is now
a consensus that methods of cost-benefit analysis that simply add up
monetary-equivalent gains and losses are consistent and applicable
only under very specific assumptions (constant marginal utility of
income and absence of priority for the worse off) which are empiri-
cally dubious and ethically controversial. It is thus necessary to intro-
duce weights in such summations (see Equation 3.6.2) that embody
suitable ethical concerns and restore consistency of the evaluation.
Adler (2011) makes a detailed argument in favour of this ‘social
welfare function’ approach to cost-benefit analysis. This approach
is followed by Anthoff etal. (2009), refining previous use of equity
weights by Fankhauser etal. (1997) and Tol (1999). An advantage
of a well-specified methodology for the choice of equity weights is
the ability to reach more precise conclusions than when all possible
weights are spanned. It also makes it possible to transparently relate
conclusions to ethical assumptions such as the degree of priority to
the worse off.
Chapter 3 (Section 3.4) describes the general concepts of social wel-
fare and individual well-being. In applications to the assessment of
development paths and sustainability, empirical measures are needed.
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Chapter 4
Several methods are discussed in Stiglitz etal. (2009) and Adler (2011).
In particular, the capability approach (Sen, 2001, 2009) is well known
for its broad measure of well-being that synthesizes multiple dimen-
sions of human life and incorporates considerations of autonomy
and freedom. Most applications of it do not directly rely on individual
preferences (Alkire, 2010). Fleurbaey and Blanchet (2013) defend an
approach that relies on individual preferences, in a similar fashion as
money-metric utilities. Some authors (e. g., Layard etal., 2008) even
propose to use satisfaction levels obtained from happiness surveys
directly as utility numbers. This is controversial because different indi-
viduals use different standards when they answer questions about
their satisfaction with life (Graham, 2009).
One reason why well-being may be useful as a guiding principle in the
assessment of sustainability, as opposed to a more piecemeal analy-
sis of each pillar, is that it helps evaluate the weak versus strong sus-
tainability distinction. As explained in Section 4.2, weak sustainability
assumes that produced capital can replace natural capital, whereas
strong sustainability requires natural capital to be preserved. From the
standpoint of well-being, the possibility to substitute produced capital
for natural capital depends on the consequences on living beings. If
the well-being of humans depends directly on natural capital, if there
is option value in preserving natural capital because it may have use-
ful properties that have yet to be discovered, or if non-human living
beings depend on natural capital for their flourishing, this gives power-
ful reasons to support a form of strong sustainability.
Additionally, Chapter 3 (in particular Sections 3.3 and 3.5) mentions
other aspects of equity that are relevant to policy debates and inter-
national negotiations on climate responses. Chapter 3 discusses these
issues at the level of ethical principles, and given the importance of
such issues in policy debates about mitigation efforts, Section 4.6
develops how these principles have been applied to the issue of bur-
den sharing in climate regime.
4.8 Implications for
subsequent chapters
The primary implication of this chapter as a framing for subsequent
chapters is to underscore the importance of explicitly scrutinizing the
candidate mitigation technologies, measures, and policies for their
broader equity and sustainability implications. Indeed, the relevant
stakeholders and decision makers have various priorities, in particular
regarding economic and human development, which may align or con-
flict with prospective climate actions. Equitable and sustainable devel-
opment provides a broader overarching framework within which to
examine climate strategies as one of the multiple interacting challenges
confronting society. Ultimately, it is a framework within which society
can consider the fundamental question of its development pathway.
4�8�1 Three levels of analysis of
sustainability consequences of climate
policy options
Various definitions and indicators of SD have been introduced in this
chapter (in particular in Section 4.2, 4.5). This subsection offers a sim-
ple taxonomy of approaches for the assessment of sustainability.
Long-term evolution of the three pillars� The outcomes of climate
policy options can generally be observed in the three spheres related
to the three pillars of SD: the economic, the social, and the environ-
mental sphere. Sustainability in the economy refers to the preservation
of standards of living and the convergence of developing economies
toward the level of developed countries. Sustainability in the social
sphere refers to fostering the quality of social relations and reducing
causes of conflicts and instability, such as excessive inequalities and
poverty, lack of access to basic resources and facilities, and discrimina-
tions. Sustainability in the environmental sphere refers to the conser-
vation of biodiversity, habitat, natural resources, and to the minimiza-
tion of ecosystem impacts more generally.
Long-term evolution of well-being� The way the three spheres (and
pillars) flourish can be viewed as contributing to sustaining well-being
for humans as well as for other living creatures. Human well-being
depends on economic, social, and natural goods, and the other living
beings depend on the quality of the ecological system. It may therefore
be convenient to summarize the multiple relevant considerations by say-
ing that the ultimate end result, for sustainability assessment, is the well-
being of all living beings. Measuring well-being is considered difficult
for humans because there are controversies about how best to depict
individual well-being, and about how to aggregate over the whole popu-
lation. However, as explained in Sections 3.4 and 4.7, many of the diffi-
culties have been exaggerated in the literature, and practical methodolo-
gies have been developed. Truly enough, it still remains difficult to assess
the well-being of all living beings, humans and non-humans together.
But, even if current methodologies fall short of operationalizing com-
prehensive measures of well-being of that sort, it is useful for experts
who study particular sectors to bear in mind that a narrow notion of
living standards for humans does not cover all the aspects of well-
being for the purposes of assessing sustainability. It is also useful to
try to assess how various interactions between the three spheres can
impact on well-being. When there are tradeoffs between different
aspects of the economic, social, and ecological dimensions, one has to
make an assessment of their relative priorities. Well-being is the over-
arching notion that helps thinking about such issues.
Current evolution of capacities� Sustainability can also be assessed
in terms of capital or capacities, as suggested by some indicators such
as genuine savings (Section 4.2). Preserving the resources transmitted
to the future generation is a key step in guaranteeing a sustainable
path. Again, it is useful to think of the capacities underlying the func-
tioning of the three spheres: economic, social, environmental. The eco-
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Chapter 4
nomic sphere needs various forms of productive capital and raw mate-
rials, infrastructures, and a propitious environment, but also human
capital, institutions, governance, and knowledge. The social sphere
needs various forms of institutions and resources for sharing goods
and connecting people, which involve certain patterns of distribution
of economic resources, transmission of knowledge, and forms of inter-
action, coordination, and cooperation. The ecological sphere needs to
keep the bases of its health, including habitat, climate, and biological
integrity. In general, climate policy options can affect capacities in all
of these spheres, to varying degrees.
4�8�2 Sustainability and equity issues in
subsequent chapters
As discussed in this chapter (Sections 4.2 and 4.5), sustainability is a
property of a development pathway as a whole. And some of the lit-
erature reviewed in the subsequent chapters (6 – 16) actually discusses
development pathways and the sustainability thereof. In addition,
Chapters 6 – 16 discuss individual issues relevant to SD and equity.
Based on a detailed description of SD and equity issues (rooted in the
‘three pillars’ approach for SD, see Section 4.8.1), this section provides
Table 4�1 | Overview of SD and equity issues as addressed in Chapters 5 – 16 of the WGIII AR5.
SD and equity issues
Chapter
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EQUITY
•Distribution (within and between
countries and generations)
5.3.3 6.3.6.6 7.9.1 8.10.1 9.7.1 11.7.1 12.6 13.2.2.3
13.4.2.4
13.13.1.2
14.1.3 15.5.2.3
15.5.2.4
•Procedural equity (Participation /
involvement, including institutional
issues)
6.3.6.6 11.7.1
11.8.2
11.9.3
12.5.2.3
12.6.1
13.2.2.4 15.2.1
ECONOMIC
•Employment 5.7.2 6.6.2.4 7.9.1 8.7.1 9.7.2.1 10.8.1 11.7.1
11.13.6
12.4.2
12.5.2.1
14.1.3
•Standards of living 5.3.3 6.3.1.2 7.10.2 8.2.2.1 9.7.2.5 10.8.1 11.7.1 12.5.2.1
•Financing 7.10.2 9.10.3.3 11.7.1 12.6.2 13.11.1 14.3.7
14.4.4
16.8
•Innovation 5.6.1 6.5.1 7.9.1 8.7.3 10.8.4 11.3.1
11.13.6
12.2.1.3 13.9 14.3.6 15.6
•Path-dependence and lock-ins 5.6.3 6.3.6.4
6.4.3
7.9,1
7.10.5
8.4 9.4.3 11.3.2 12.3.2.1
12.4.1
14.3.2
•Energy Security 5.3.4 6.6.2.2 7.9.1 8.7.1 9.7.2.2 10.8.1 11.13.6 12.8.2 14.4.3
SOCIAL
•Poverty (alleviation) 6.6.2.3 7.9,1
7.10.3
8.7.1 9.7.2.5 11.7.1
11.8.1
11.13.6
14.1.3
•Access to and affordability of basic
services
6.6.2.3 7.9.1 8.7.1 9.7.1 11.A.6 12.4.2.4
12.5.2.1
14.3.2.1
•Food security 5.3.5
5.7.2
6.3.5 7.9.4 11.7.1
11.13.6 / 7
•Education and learning 7.9.1 13.10 15.10 16.3
•Health 5.7.1 6.6.2.1 7.9.2;
7.9.3
8.7.1 9.7.3.1
9.7.3.2
10.8.1 11.7.1
11.13.6
12.8.1
12.8.3 / 4
•Displacements 7.9.4 10.8.1 11.7.1
11.13.6
•Quality of life 7.9.4 8.7.1 9.7.1 10.8.1 11.A.6 12.8.2 / 3
•Gender Impacts 7.9.1
(Box)
9.7.1 11.7
11.13.5
ENVIRONMENTAL
•Ecosystem impacts and biodiversity
conservation
5.7.2 6.6.2.6 7.9.2 8.7.1 9.7.1 10.8.1 11.7.2
11.13.6 / 7
12.5.1
12.8.1 / 4
14.3.5 15.5.6
•Water, soils, and other natural
resources
5.5.2 6.6.2.5 7.9.2;
7.9.3
8.7.2 9.7.3.3 10.8.1 11.7.2
11.8.3
11.13.6
12.6.1
12.8.4
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Chapter 4
a map and a reader’s guide for the report from the SD and equity per-
spective. Table 4.1 shows where those issues are addressed throughout
the report. It is supplemented in this section by a brief outline of how
each chapter from 6 – 16 deals with them.
The present section is broader than, and a complement to, Section 6.6
and Table 6.7, which sum up and discuss key co-benefits and adverse
side-effects in Chapters 7 – 12. It is broader in two ways. First, the pres-
ent section covers all chapters, not just the sectoral chapters. Second,
the present section reviews not only where co-benefits and adverse
side-effects are discussed (the “development in the climate lens”
approach as in Sathaye etal., 2007), but also where the implications
of key development policies for mitigation and mitigative capacity are
discussed (“climate in the development lens”), and where integrated
development paths, including but not limited to climate mitigation, are
analyzed. On the other hand, Section 6.6 and Table 6.7 provide a more
detailed description of many sorts of co-benefits and adverse side-
effects (not all of which directly bear on SD).
The review conducted in the present section leads to three key mes-
sages. First, SD and equity issues are pervasive throughout the chap-
ters, reflecting growing literature and attention paid to the topic.
Second, a large part of the discussion remains framed within the
framework of co-benefits and adverse side-effects. Although extremely
important and useful, it has been noted above (Section 4.2) that co-
benefits and adverse side-effects are only a building block towards a
full SD assessment — which is about integrating the different dimen-
sions in a comprehensive pathway framework. Third, while some top-
ics, such as health co-benefits and adverse side-effects associated with
mitigation policies, appear already well covered in the literature, oth-
ers remain scarcely addressed. In particular, distributional issues (both
distributional implications of mitigation policies and implications of
different distributional settings for climate policies), employment, and
social cohesiveness, have limited coverage — despite being among the
key SD goals that policymakers will consider.
The following paragraphs briefly describe how each chapter (from 5 to
16) deals with SD and equity issues. Chapter 5 analyzes the drivers of
GHG emissions, and many of these drivers have to do with basic char-
acteristics of the development pathway (population, economic growth,
behaviours, technology) that impact sustainability perspectives (5.3,
5.5, 5.6). It also provides a brief overview of co-benefits (in particular
in health) and adverse side-effects (5.7) and takes a system perspec-
tive to understand the linkages between emissions and the various
drivers (5.8) — such a systemic view is congenial to the comprehensive
approach to SD discussed in 4.2.
Chapter 6 analyzes distributional consequences of different interna-
tional burden sharing regimes (6.3.6.6). This chapter also highlights
the contrast between the literature suggesting that mitigation might
increase the rural-urban gap and deteriorate the living standards of
large sections of the population in developing countries, and the SD lit-
erature stating that policy and measures aligned to ‘development’ and
‘climate’ objectives can deliver substantial co-benefits (Box 6.2). Sec-
tion6.5.2 discusses underlying factors that enable or prevent mitiga-
tion. Section 6.6.1 summarizes Chapters 7 – 12 information on co-bene-
fits and adverse side-effects, while 6.6.2 attempts to link transformation
pathway studies with other key development priorities, including air
pollution and health (6.6.2.1), energy security (6.6.2.2), energy access
(6.6.2.3), employment (6.6.2.4), biodiversity (6.6.2.5), water use
(6.6.2.6). Section 6.6.2.7 reviews scenario studies analyzing the inter-
actions between mitigation, air quality, and energy security objectives.
Chapter 7 reviews the literature on the co-benefits, risks, and spillovers
of mitigation in the energy sector, with emphasis on employment,
energy security and energy access (7.9.1), and health and environmen-
tal issues (7.9.2). It also puts energy mitigation options into a broader
development context, notably by examining how special mechanisms
such as microfinance can help lifting rural populations out of the
energy poverty trap and increase the deployment of low carbon energy
technologies (7.10.2). It stresses that poverty itself is shaping energy
systems in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and creating obstacles
(e. g., legal barriers, or vandalism, in informal settlements) to the distri-
bution of electricity (7.10.3). It also highlights the implications of the
long life duration of energy supply fixed capital stock (7.10.5).
Chapter 8 emphasizes the importance of the transport sector both for
human development and for mitigation (8.1.1). There are many poten-
tial co-benefits associated with mitigation actions in the transport
sector, with respect to equitable mobility access, health and local air
pollution, traffic congestion, energy security, and road safety (8.7.1).
It is, however, difficult to assess the social value of such benefits, and
there are risks and uncertainties (8.7.2). The chapter analyzes the spe-
cial uncertainties and concerns of developing countries, where efforts
are made to develop or improve institutional effectiveness to support
integrated planning (involving transportation, land use, energy,
agriculture and public health authorities) that uses transportation as
a driver for developing economic and social resilience (8.9.2). Finally,
Chapter 8 mentions the concerns with market-based policies having
differential impacts across population groups (8.10.1).
Chapter 9 lists the co-benefits and adverse side-effects associated
with buildings, notably in terms of employment (9.7.2.1), energy secu-
rity (9.7.2.2), fuel poverty alleviation (9.7.2.5), and health (9.7.3.1
and 9.7.3.2). Detailed analysis is also conducted on path dependence
and lock-in effects associated with the building stock (9.4.2) and with
financing issues, as they relate to the particular situations of develop-
ing countries (9.10.4).
Chapter 10 discusses the co-benefits and adverse side-effects associ-
ated with mitigation actions in the industry sector, focusing mostly on
macroeconomic and health benefits (10.8.1). The chapter also focuses
on employment impacts of eco-innovation and investment, noting
that substantial impacts require job support mechanisms, and that the
distributional effects of these policies and across different countries
remain unclear (10.10.2).
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4
Chapter 4
Chapter 11 frames the discussion of mitigation options in the Agricul-
ture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector within a systemic
development context (11.4.1). It thoroughly examines the socio-eco-
nomic impacts of changes in land use (11.7.1). Increasing land rents
and food prices due to a reduction in land availability for agricul-
ture, and increasing inequity and land conflicts are serious concerns
(11.7.1). Special care for small holders and equity issues, including
gender, should accompany mitigation projects (Box 11.6). Bioenergy
deployment can have strong distributional impacts, mediated by
global market dynamics, including policy regulations and incentives,
the production model and deployment scale, and place-specific fac-
tors such as land tenure security, labour and financial capabilities. It
can raise and diversify farm incomes and increase rural employment,
but can also cause smallholders, tenants and herders to lose access
to productive land, while other social groups such as workers, inves-
tors, company owners, biofuels consumers, would benefit (bioenergy
appendix).
Chapter 12 naturally adopts a systemic perspective in dealing with
human settlements (12.1, 12.4, 12.5.1), and discusses procedural
equity issues in the context of city governance (12.6). It notes that
a high-density city, depending heavily upon land-based public-pri-
vate financing, faces issues of real estate speculation and housing
affordability (12.6.2). Adapted tax policies can help integrate market
incentives with policy objectives such as sustainable transit financ-
ing, affordable housing, and environmental protection. Section 12.8
focuses more specifically on the co-benefits of mitigation options in
human settlements, notably in terms of improved health, but also
regarding quality of life (noise, urban heat island effect) and energy
security and efficiency.
Chapter 13 provides a detailed examination of various international
agreements and mechanisms through the lens of distributional
impacts, noting the complex interaction between equity and participa-
tion in voluntary cooperation processes (13.2). The chapter discusses
the distributional impacts of the Kyoto Protocol as well as various pro-
posals for multilateral systems (global permit market, global tax, tech-
nology-oriented schemes) (13.13), linkages (13.7.2), and more decen-
tralized initiatives such as trade sanctions (13.8) and geo-engineering
(13.4.4). Chapter 13 further discusses advantages and limitations of
linking negotiations on mitigation and negotiations on other develop-
ment objectives (13.3.3). Links with policies and institutions related to
other development goals are not discussed, except for relationships
between mitigation and international trade regulation (13.8). Finally,
human rights and rights of nature are discussed in so far as they might
support legal challenges to greenhouse gases emissions (13.5.2.2).
Chapter 14 firmly embeds its analysis of climate policies at the regional
level within the context of possible development paths, highlighting
significant regional differences (14.1.2, 14.1.3). Given heterogeneity of
capacities between countries, it argues that regional cooperation on
climate change can help to foster mitigation that considers distribu-
tional aspects. In particular, high inequalities in poor regions raise dif-
ficult distributional questions regarding the costs and benefits of miti-
gation policies (14.1.3). Mitigation opportunities are discussed in the
context of the broader development objectives, with regard to energy
access (14.3.2), urbanization (14.3.3), consumption patterns (14.3.4),
agriculture and land-use (14.3.5), and technological development
(14.3.6). Relationships between mitigation options and regional trade
agreements — not a development objective per se but an instrument
for achieving economic growth — are also examined (14.4.2). Finally,
Chapter 14 examines the geographical concentration of CDM projects
(14.3.7).
In analyzing policies at the national and subnational level, Chapter
15 provides a detailed analysis of the relationships between climate
change mitigation and other development goals. While it notes the
practical importance of co-benefits in the design of climate policies
(15.2.4), it also shows that certain measures set up with primarily
other development objectives have important implications for climate
change mitigation, either directly in terms of emission reductions, or
indirectly in terms of provision of public goods necessary for mitiga-
tion policies to be effective (15.3.4, 15.5.2, 15.5.6). In addition, the
chapter highlights the importance of designing policy packages that
jointly address different development objectives, and discusses in
depth the opportunities but also the difficulties of such association
(15.7.2, 15.11). Chapter 15 insists on the fact that whether a policy
is adopted or not, and what outcome it finally has strongly depends
on local circumstances (notably institutions), and on the process by
which the decision is made (15.8.2, 15.9). Finally, this chapter notes
that while the distributional incidence of taxes has been studied quite
extensively, much less is known about the distributional incidence of
other policies (15.13).
Availability of resources for investment is critical for supporting any
development path. The literature reviewed in Chapter 16 notes that
there are barriers to investment in many countries, not specific to
mitigation — although mitigation activities have specific characteristics
(size, perceived risks, etc.) that make their financing even more diffi-
cult (16.8). However, Chapter 16 notes that the literature on financing
remains limited, and focuses quite narrowly on energy mitigation poli-
cies. There is very little evaluation, both at the micro and macro level,
of how investment flows in other sectors (such as transportation or
housing), could be redirected in relation with mitigation.
4.9 Gaps in knowledge
and data
The current literature and data in the area of sustainable development
and equity has gaps that could be better addressed. The points below
highlight questions and connections that may serve as openings for
future research.
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4
Chapter 4
• The relationship between countries’ human capital levels and their
national and international engagement in climate change policy
would benefit from additional studies.
• There are many open questions about how developing countries
can best pull together the resources and capabilities to achieve SD
and mitigation objectives and how to leverage international coop-
eration to support this process.
• Not much is known about the desirability and feasibility of various
economic and policy frameworks for the compensation of foregone
benefits from exploiting fossil fuels in resource-rich countries.
• In the efforts made toward an evaluation of funding necessary to
implement UNFCCC mitigation and adaptation activities, harmo-
nized and clear methodologies and processes are still missing as a
basis for accurate estimates.
• It is still difficult to assess the unrealized potential for reducing the
environmental impact of economic activity and to understand how
this potential can be realized.
• For technology transitions, knowledge remains insufficient for a
comparative assessment of alternative innovation and diffusion
systems and an assessment of the interplay between property
rights, markets and government action, taking account of local cir-
cumstances and constraints.
• The relative importance in a SD transition of changes in values, as
opposed to standard economic instruments influencing behaviours
and economic activity, remains hard to assess.
• Not much is known about the relative potential of frugality (life-
styles and consumption patterns involving lower expenditures
on goods and services) versus ecologically-conscious behaviour
(lifestyles and consumption patterns involving fewer material
resources and less environmental harm without necessarily reduc-
ing expenditure) for promoting SD and equity.
• The non-economic motivations for climate-friendly behaviours are
not well understood, particularly with regard to the respective role
of social considerations or values (e. g. universalism regarding fel-
low human beings) versus ecological considerations (universalism
regarding the environment), and the extent to which these drivers
can be separated.
• The predictive power of values regarding ecologically conscious
consumer behaviour is often low, typically less than 20 %, due to
a range of factors operating at different levels. The causes of this
‘value-action gap’ regarding, especially, behaviours that increase
or limit GHG emissions are not well understood.
• The measurement of well-being, for the purpose of public policy,
remains a controversial field, which suggests a need to further
explore the potential uses of subjective data, and also seek ways
to improve the quality of data on well-being.
• The empirical economic models used in the context of climate
policy could substantially improve by integrating transition issues
(short-medium term) into long-term analysis, and also by adopt-
ing a sequential structure compatible with the resolution of uncer-
tainty over time.
• The current methodologies for the construction of scenarios do not
yet deliver sufficiently detailed and sufficiently long-term data in
order to assess development paths at the bar of sustainability and
equity. The studies of SD impacts of sectoral measures in terms of
co-benefits are seldom integrated into a comprehensive assess-
ment of sustainability of the general development path.
• A better understanding of the distributional impacts of prospec-
tive climate policies would provide guidance for designing equi-
table policies, and insight into the present political economic
landscape wherein some actors support climate action and others
oppose it.
4.10 Frequently Asked
Questions
FAQ 4�1 Why does the IPCC need to think about
sustainable development?
Climate change is one among many (some of them longstanding)
threats to SD, such as the depletion of natural resources, pollution
hazards, inequalities, or geopolitical tensions. As policymakers are
concerned with the broader issues of SD, it is important to reflect on
how climate risks and policies fit in the general outlook. This report
studies the interdependence between policy objectives via the analy-
sis of co-benefits and adverse side-effects. More broadly, it examines
how climate policy can be conceived as a component of the transition
of nations toward SD pathways (Sections 4.2, 4.6, 4.8). Many factors
determine the development pathway. Among the main factors that can
be influenced by policy decisions, one can list governance, human and
social capital, technology, and finance. Population size, behaviours and
values are also important factors. Managing the transition toward SD
also requires taking account of path dependence and potential favour-
able or unfavourable lock-ins (e. g., via infrastructures), and attention
to the political economy in which all of these factors are embedded
(Sections 4.3, 4.4, 4.5).
327327
Sustainable Development and Equity
4
Chapter 4
FAQ 4�2 The IPCC and UNFCCC focus primarily
on GHG emissions within countries� How
can we properly account for all emissi-
ons related to consumption activities,
even if these emissions occur in other
countries?
For any given country, it is possible to compute the emissions embod-
ied in its consumption or those emitted in its productive sector. The
consumption-based framework for GHG emission accounting allocates
the emissions released during the production and distribution (i. e.,
along the supply chain) of goods and services to the final consumer
and the nation (or another territorial unit) in which they resides, irre-
spective of the geographical origin of these products. The territorial or
production-based framework allocates the emissions physically pro-
duced within a nation’s territorial boundary to that nation. The differ-
ence in emissions inventories calculated based on the two frameworks
are the emissions embodied in trade. Consumption-based emissions
are more strongly associated with GDP than are territorial emissions.
This is because wealthier countries satisfy a higher share of their final
consumption of products through net imports compared to poorer
countries. (Section 4.4)
FAQ 4�3 What kind of consumption has the
greatest environmental impact?
The relationship between consumer behaviours and their associated
environmental impacts is well understood. Generally, higher con-
sumption lifestyles have greater environmental impact, which con-
nects distributive equity issues with the environment. Beyond that,
research has shown that food accounts for the largest share of con-
sumption-based GHG emissions (carbon footprints) with nearly 20 %
of the global carbon footprint, followed by housing, mobility, services,
manufactured products, and construction. Food and services are more
important in poor countries, while mobility and manufactured goods
account for the highest carbon footprints in rich countries. (Section
4.4)
FAQ 4�4 Why is equity relevant in climate
negotiations?
The international climate negotiations under the UNFCCC are work-
ing toward a collective global response to the common threat of cli-
mate change. As with any cooperative undertaking, the total required
effort will be allocated in some way among countries, including both
domestic action and international financial support. At least three
lines of reasoning have been put forward to explain the relevance
of equity in allocating this effort: (1)amoraljustification that draws
upon widely applied ethical principles, (2) a legal justification that
appeals to existing treaty commitments and soft law agreements to
cooperate on the basis of stated equity principles, and (3) aneffec-
tiveness justification that argues that an international collective
arrangement that isperceived to be fair has greater legitimacy and
is more likely to be internationally agreed and domestically imple-
mented, reducing the risks of defection and a cooperative collapse.
(Sections 4.2, 4.6)
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4
Chapter 4
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