361

Coastal Systems

and Low-Lying Areas

Coordinating Lead Authors:

Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), Iñigo J. Losada (Spain)

Lead Authors:

Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Abdellatif Khattabi (Morocco),

Kathleen L. McInnes (Australia), Yoshiki Saito (Japan), Asbury Sallenger (USA)

Contributing Authors:

So-Min Cheong (Republic of Korea), Kirstin Dow (USA), Carlos M. Duarte (Australia/Spain),

Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Lucy Faulkner (UK), Masahiko Isobe (Japan), Jack Middelburg

(Netherlands), Susanne Moser (USA), Mark Pelling (UK), Edmund Penning-Rowsell (UK),

Sybil Seitzinger (USA), Marcel Stive (Netherlands), Richard S.J. Tol (Netherlands),

Athanasios Vafeidis (Greece/Germany)

Review Editors:

Robert J. Nicholls (UK), Filipe Santos (Portugal)

Volunteer Chapter Scientist:

Sara Amez (Spain)

This chapter should be cited as:

Wong

, P.P., I.J. Losada, J.-P. Gattuso, J. Hinkel, A. Khattabi, K.L. McInnes, Y. Saito, and A. Sallenger, 2014: Coastal

systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A:

Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach,

M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy,

S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United

Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 361-409.

362

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 364

5.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 366

5.2. Coastal Systems ...................................................................................................................................................... 366

5.3. Drivers .................................................................................................................................................................... 367

5.3.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 367

5.3.2. Relative Sea Level Rise ..................................................................................................................................................................... 367

5.3.2.1.Global Mean Sea Level ......................................................................................................................................................... 368

5.3.2.2.Regional Sea Level ............................................................................................................................................................... 369

5.3.2.3.Local Sea Level ..................................................................................................................................................................... 369

5.3.3. Climate-Related Drivers .................................................................................................................................................................... 370

5.3.3.1.Severe Storms ...................................................................................................................................................................... 370

5.3.3.2.Extreme Sea Levels ............................................................................................................................................................... 370

5.3.3.3.Winds and Waves ................................................................................................................................................................. 371

5.3.3.4.Sea Surface Temperature ...................................................................................................................................................... 371

5.3.3.5.Ocean Acidiﬁcation .............................................................................................................................................................. 372

5.3.3.6.Freshwater Input .................................................................................................................................................................. 372

5.3.4. Human-Related Drivers ..................................................................................................................................................................... 372

5.3.4.1.Socioeconomic Development ............................................................................................................................................... 372

5.3.4.2.Nutrients .............................................................................................................................................................................. 373

5.3.4.3.Hypoxia ................................................................................................................................................................................ 373

5.3.4.4.Sediment Delivery ................................................................................................................................................................ 373

5.4. Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Risks .......................................................................................................................... 374

5.4.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 374

5.4.2. Natural Systems ................................................................................................................................................................................ 375

5.4.2.1.Beaches, Barriers, and Sand Dunes ....................................................................................................................................... 375

5.4.2.2.Rocky Coasts ........................................................................................................................................................................ 376

5.4.2.3.Wetlands and Seagrass Beds ................................................................................................................................................ 377

5.4.2.4.Coral Reefs ........................................................................................................................................................................... 378

5.4.2.5.Coastal Aquifers ................................................................................................................................................................... 379

5.4.2.6.Estuaries and Lagoons ......................................................................................................................................................... 379

5.4.2.7.Deltas ................................................................................................................................................................................... 380

Table of Contents

363

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

5.4.3. Human Systems ................................................................................................................................................................................ 381

5.4.3.1.Human Settlements .............................................................................................................................................................. 381

5.4.3.2.Industry, Infrastructure, Transport, and Network Industries .................................................................................................. 383

5.4.3.3.Fisheries, Aquaculture, and Agriculture ................................................................................................................................. 384

5.4.3.4.Coastal Tourism and Recreation ........................................................................................................................................... 384

5.4.3.5.Health .................................................................................................................................................................................. 385

5.4.4. Summary: Detection and Attribution ................................................................................................................................................. 386

5.5. Adaptation and Managing Risks ............................................................................................................................. 386

5.5.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 386

5.5.2. Adaptation Measures ....................................................................................................................................................................... 387

5.5.3. Adaptation Decision Making and Governance ................................................................................................................................. 388

5.5.3.1.Decision Analysis .................................................................................................................................................................. 388

5.5.3.2.Institution and Governance Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 388

Box 5-1. London’s Thames Estuary 2100 Plan: Adaptive Management for the Long Term .............................................. 389

5.5.4. Implementation and Practice ............................................................................................................................................................ 390

5.5.4.1.Frameworks .......................................................................................................................................................................... 390

5.5.4.2.Principles, Guidance, and Experiences .................................................................................................................................. 390

5.5.5. Global Adaptation Costs and Beneﬁts .............................................................................................................................................. 392

5.5.6. Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits ........................................................................................................................... 393

5.5.7. Synergies and Trade-Offs between Mitigation and Adaptation ......................................................................................................... 394

5.5.8. Long-Term Commitment to Sea Level Rise and Adaptation .............................................................................................................. 394

5.6. Information Gaps, Data Gaps, and Research Needs ............................................................................................... 395

References ......................................................................................................................................................................... 396

Frequently Asked Questions

5.1: How does climate change affect coastal marine ecosystems? .......................................................................................................... 374

5.2: How is climate change inﬂuencing coastal erosion? ........................................................................................................................ 376

5.3: How can coastal communities plan for and adapt to the impacts of climate change, in particular sea level rise? ........................... 387

364

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

Executive Summary

Coastal systems are particularly sensitive to three key drivers related to climate change: sea level, ocean temperature, and ocean

acidity (very high confidence). {5.3.2, 5.3.3.4, 5.3.3.5} Despite the lack of attribution of observed coastal changes, there is a long-term

commitment to experience the impacts of sea level rise because of a delay in its response to temperature (high confidence). {5.5.8} In contrast,

coral bleaching and species ranges can be attributed to ocean temperature change and ocean acidity. {5.4.2.2, 5.4.2.4} For many other coastal

changes, the impacts of climate change are difficult to tease apart from human-related drivers (e.g., land use change, coastal development,

pollution) (robust evidence, high agreement).

Coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience adverse impacts such as submergence, coastal flooding, and

coastal erosion due to relative sea level rise (RSLR; very high confidence).

In the absence of adaptation, beaches, sand dunes, and cliffs

currently eroding will continue to do so under increasing sea level (high confidence). {5.4.2.1, 5.4.2.2} Large spatial variations in the projected

sea level rise together with local factors means RSLR at the local scale can vary considerably from projected global mean sea level rise (GMSLR)

(very high confidence). {5.3.2} Changes in storms and associated storm surges may further contribute to changes in sea level extremes but the

small number of regional storm surge studies, and uncertainty in changes in tropical and mid-latitude cyclones at the regional scale, means

that there is low confidence in projections of storm surge change {5.3.3.2} Both RSLR and impacts are also influenced by a variety of local

processes unrelated to climate (e.g., subsidence, glacial isostatic adjustment, sediment transport, coastal development) (very high confidence).

Acidification and warming of coastal waters will continue with significant negative consequences for coastal ecosystems (high

confidence). The increase in acidity will be higher in areas where eutrophication or coastal upwellings are an issue. It will have negative impacts

for many calcifying organisms (high confidence). {5.4.2.2} Warming and acidification will lead to coral bleaching, mortality, and decreased

constructional ability (high confidence), making coral reefs the most vulnerable marine ecosystem with little scope for adaptation. {5.4.2.4,

Box CC-OA} Temperate seagrass and kelp ecosystems will decline with the increased frequency of heat waves and sea temperature extremes as

well as through the impact of invasive subtropical species (high confidence). {5.4.2.3}

The population and assets exposed to coastal risks as well as human pressures on coastal ecosystems will increase significantly

in the coming decades due to population growth, economic development, and urbanization (high confidence).

The exposure of

people and assets to coastal risks has been rapidly growing and this trend is expected to continue. {5.3.4.1, 5.4.3.1} Humans have been the

primary drivers of changes in coastal aquifers, lagoons, estuaries, deltas, and wetlands (very high confidence) and are expected to further

exacerbate human pressures on coastal ecosystems resulting from excess nutrient input, changes in runoff, and reduced sediment delivery

(high confidence). {5.3.4.2, 5.3.4.3, 5.3.4.4}

For the 21st century, the benefits of protecting against increased coastal flooding and land loss due to submergence and erosion

at the global scale are larger than the social and economic costs of inaction (limited evidence, high agreement). Without adaptation,

hundreds of millions of people will be affected by coastal flooding and will be displaced due to land loss by year 2100; the majority of those

affected are from East, Southeast, and South Asia (high confidence). {5.3.4.1, 5.4.3.1} At the same time, protecting against flooding and erosion

is considered economically rational for most developed coastlines in many countries under all socioeconomic and sea level rise scenarios

analyzed, including for the 21st century GMSLR of above 1 m (limited evidence, high agreement). {5.5.5}

The relative costs of adaptation vary strongly between and within regions and countries for the 21st century (high confidence).

Some low-lying developing countries (e.g., Bangladesh, Vietnam) and small islands are expected to face very high impacts and associated

annual damage and adaptation costs of several percentage points of gross domestic product (GDP). {5.5.5} Developing countries and small

islands within the tropics dependent on coastal tourism will be impacted directly not only by future sea level rise and associated extremes but

also by coral bleaching and ocean acidification and associated reductions in tourist arrivals (high confidence). {5.4.3.4}

365

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

The analysis and implementation of coastal adaptation toward climate-resilient and sustainable coasts has progressed more

significantly in developed countries than in developing countries (high confidence).

Given ample adaptation options, more proactive

responses can be made and based on technological, policy related, financial, and institutional support. Observed successful adaptation includes

major projects (e.g., Thames Estuary, Venice Lagoon, Delta Works) and specific practices in both developed countries (e.g., Netherlands,

Australia) and developing countries (e.g., Bangladesh). {5.5.4.2} More countries and communities carry out coastal adaptation measures

including those based on integrated coastal zone management, local communities, ecosystems, and disaster reduction, and these measures are

mainstreamed into relevant strategies and management plans (high confidence). {5.5.4, 5.5.5}

366

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

5.1. Introduction

This chapter presents an updated picture of the impacts, vulnerability,

and adaptation of coastal systems and low-lying areas to climate change,

ith sea level rise perceived as the most important risk for human

systems. Unlike the coastal chapter in the previous assessment (Fourth

Assessment Report, AR4), materials pertinent to the oceans are not

covered here but in two new ocean chapters (Chapters 6 and 30). As in

AR4, polar coasts are in another chapter (Chapter 28); small islands are

also considered separately (Chapter 29) so an in-depth discussion is not

provided herein.

The topics covered in this chapter follow the outline for sectoral chapters

approved by the IPCC. An Executive Summary summarizes the key

messages with a line of sight to the supporting sections in the chapter.

This chapter consists of six sections, with this first section dealing with

progress in knowledge from AR4 to AR5 (Fifth Assessment Report),

scope of chapter, and new developments. Section 5.2 defines the coastal

systems and climate and non-climate drivers. The coastal systems include

both natural systems and human systems, and this division is generally

followed throughout the chapter. The climate and non-climate drivers

are assessed in Section 5.3, followed by the impacts, vulnerabilities, and

risks in Section 5.4. Section 5.5 deals with adaptation and managing

risks. Information gaps, data gaps, and research needs are assessed in

Section 5.6. There is one box on a specific example and reference to

three cross-chapter boxes.

In AR4, the coastal chapter assessed the impact of climate change and

a global sea level rise up to 0.59 m in the 2090s. The coastal systems

were considered to be affected mainly by higher sea levels, increasing

temperatures, changes in precipitation, larger storm surges, and increased

ocean acidity. Human activities had continued to increase their pressure

on the coasts with rapid urbanization in coastal areas and growth of

megacities with consequences on coastal resources. Regionally, South,

Southeast, and East Asia; Africa; and small islands were identified as

most vulnerable. The AR4 chapter offered a range of adaptation

measures, many under the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)

framework that could be carried out in both developed and developing

countries, but recognized that the latter would face more challenges.

Various issues on increasing the adaptive capacity or increasing the

resilience of coastal communities were discussed. The unavoidability of

sea level rise in the long term, even with stringent mitigation, was

noted, with adaptation becoming an urgent issue.

A number of key issues related to the coasts have arisen since AR4.

There is now better understanding of the natural systems, their ecosystem

functions, their services and benefits to humanity, and how they can be

affected by climate change. Their linkages landward to the watersheds

and seaward to the seas and oceans need to be considered for a more

integrated assessment of climate change impacts. The global mean sea

level rise (GMSLR) is projected to be 0.28 to 0.98 m by 2100 (Table 5-2),

although with regional variations and local factors the local sea level

rise can be higher than that projected for the GMSLR. This has serious

implications for coastal cities, deltas, and low-lying states. While higher

rates of coastal erosion are generally expected under rising sea levels, the

complex inter-relationships between the geomorphological and ecological

ttributes of the coastal system (Gilman et al., 2006; Haslett, 2009) and

the relevant climate and oceanic processes need to be better established

at regional and local scales. Such complex inter-relationships can be

influenced by different methods and responses of coastal management.

Also of concern is ocean acidification. Together with warming, it causes

coral reefs to lose their structural integrity, negatively implicating reef

communities and shore protection (Sheppard et al., 2005; Manzello et al.,

2008; see Boxes CC-OA, CC-CR). Acidification has potential impacts of

reduced calcification in shellfish and impacts on commercial aquaculture

(Barton et al., 2012). Since AR4, a significant number of new findings

regarding the impacts of climate change on human settlements and key

coastal systems such as rocky coasts, beaches, estuaries, deltas, salt

marshes, mangroves, coral reefs, and submerged vegetation have

become available and are reviewed in this chapter. However, uncertainties

regarding projections of potential impacts on coastal systems remain

generally high.

This chapter also provides advances in both vulnerability assessments

and the identification of potential adaptation actions, costs, benefits,

and trade-offs. A large number of new studies estimate the costs of

inaction versus potential adaptation. Coastal adaptation has become

more widely used, with a wider range of approaches and frameworks

such as integrated coastal management, ecosystem-based adaptation,

community-based adaptation, and disaster risk reduction and management.

Climate change will interact differently with the variety of human

activities and other drivers of change along coastlines of developed and

developing countries. For example, on the coastlines of developed

countries, changes in weather and climate extremes and sea level rise may

impact the demand for housing, recreational facilities, and construction

of renewable energy infrastructure on the coast (Hadley, 2009), including

critical infrastructures such as transportation, ports, and naval bases.

Along the coasts of developing countries, weather and climate extremes

affect a wide range of economic activities supporting coastal communities

and pose an additional risk to many of the fastest growing low-lying

urban areas, such as in Bangladesh and China (McGranahan et al., 2007;

Smith, 2011).

5.2. Coastal Systems

Coastal systems and low-lying areas, also referred to as coasts in this

assessment, include all areas near mean sea level. Generally, there is

no single definition for the coast and the coastal zone/area, where the

latter emphasizes the area or extent of the coastal ecosystems. In

relation to exposure to potential sea level rise, the low-elevation coastal

zone (LECZ) has been used in recent years with reference to specific

area and population up to 10 m elevation (Vafeidis et al., 2011).

Coastal systems are conceptualized to consist of both natural and

human systems (Figure 5-1). The natural systems include distinct coastal

features and ecosystems such as rocky coasts, beaches, barriers and

sand dunes, estuaries and lagoons, deltas, river mouths, wetlands, and

coral reefs. These elements help define the seaward and landward

boundaries of the coast. In spite of providing a wide variety of regulating,

provisioning, supporting, and cultural services (MEA, 2005), they have

367

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

been altered and heavily influenced by human activities, with climate

change constituting only one among many pressures these systems are

facing. The human systems include the built environment (e.g., settlements,

water, drainage, as well as transportation infrastructure and networks),

human activities (e.g., tourism, aquaculture, fisheries), as well as formal

and informal institutions that organize human activities (e.g., policies,

laws, customs, norms, and culture). The human and natural systems form

a tightly coupled socio-ecological system (Berkes and Folke, 1998;

Hopkins et al., 2012).

5.3. Drivers

5.3.1. Introduction

In AR4, changes in climate drivers (i.e., any climate-induced factor that

directly or indirectly causes a change), including sea level rise, were

projected for different Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

emissions scenarios (IPCC, 2000). Consequently, to date, most of the

impacts and vulnerability assessments of climate change in coastal areas

are based on SRES A2, A1B, B2, and A1F1 scenarios. Since AR4 a new

scenario process has been initiated to replace the SRES scenarios with

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic

Pathways (SSPs) (Moss et al., 2010). The RCPs are scenarios specifying

concentrations, rather than emissions, thereby avoiding differences in

concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol

concentrations for the same emissions scenarios that can arise from the

use of different models (van Vuuren et al., 2011). For a comparison

between RCP and SRES scenarios, see WGI AR5 Box 1.2. In addition,

Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs) have been introduced for the

2100–2300 period (Meinhausen et al., 2011), providing the opportunity

to assess the long-term commitment to sea level rise, which is virtually

certain to continue beyond 2500 unless global temperature declines

(WGI AR5 Chapter 1; Section 13.5.2).

The SSPs provide representative qualitative story lines (narratives) of world

development together with quantitative pathways of key socioeconomic

variables such as gross domestic product (GDP) and population. A

preliminary list of five SSPs has been proposed (Arnell et al., 2011;

O’Neill et al., 2012), and work to further refine them is ongoing (Kriegler

et al. 2012; Van Vuuren et al., 2012). SSPs do not include assumptions

on mitigation policy and are thus independent from RCPs in the sense

that the same SSP may lead to different concentration levels and

consequently rises in sea level depending on the level of mitigation

reached (Arnell et al., 2011; O’Neill et al., 2012). Table 5-1 summarizes

the main climate-related drivers for the coastal systems.

5.3.2. Relative Sea Level Rise

Assessments of coastal impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation need to

consider relative sea level rise (RSLR), which includes climate-induced

GMSLR (Section 5.3.2.1) and regional variations (Section 5.3.2.2) as

well as local non-climate-related sea level changes (Section 5.3.2.3).

RSLR poses a significant threat to coastal systems and low-lying areas

around the globe, leading to inundation and erosion of coastlines and

contamination of freshwater reserves and food crops (Nicholls, 2010).

Sea level rise due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm, together

with meltwater from glaciers, icecaps, and ice sheets of Greenland and

Antarctica, are the major factors that contribute to RSLR globally.

However, regional variations in the rate of rise occur because of ocean

circulation patterns and interannual and decadal variability (e.g., Zhang

isk on coastal systems

Adaptation

limate

Drivers

Exposure and vulnerability

atural systemsHuman systemsClimate-related

uman-related

Natural

variability

Anthropogenic

climate change

• Settlements

• Infrastructure

• Food production

• Tourism

•

Health

•

Relative sea level rise

• Storms

• Extreme sea level

•

Temperature

• CO

concentration

• Freshwater input

• Ocean acidiﬁcation

•

Socioeconomic

development

• Nutrients

•

Hypoxia

• Sediment delivery

•

Rocky coasts

• Beaches

• Wetlands and

eagrasses

• Coral reefs

• Aquifers

• Estuaries and lagoons

•

Deltas

Figure 5-1 | Climate, just as anthropogenic or natural variability, affects both climate and human related drivers. Risk on coastal systems is the outcome of integrating drivers'

associated hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Adaptation options can be implemented either to modify the hazards or exposure and vulnerability, or both.

368

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

and Church, 2012; Ganachaud et al., 2013) and glacial isostatic rebound

and tectonic movement. Subsidence of coastal land from sediment

compaction due to building loads, harbor dredging, changes in sediment

supply that cause erosion/accretion, and subsurface resource extraction

(e.g., groundwater, gas and petroleum; Syvitski et al., 2009) may also

contribute to RSLR locally and therefore requires consideration in

coastal impact studies. Sea level impacts are most pronounced during

episodes of extreme sea levels and these are discussed in Section 5.3.3.

5.3.2.1. Global Mean Sea Level

It is very likely that global mean sea level rose at a mean rate of 1.7

[1.5 to 1.9] mm yr

–1

between 1900 and 2010 and at a rate 3.2 [2.8 to

3.6] mm yr

–1

from 1993 to 2010 (WGI AR5 Section 13.2.2). Ocean thermal

expansion and melting of glaciers have been the largest contributors,

accounting for more than 80% of the GMSLR over the latter period

(WGI AR5 Section 13.3.1). Future rates of GMSLR during the 21st century

are projected to exceed the observed rate for the period 1971–2010 of

2.0 [1.7 to 2.3] mm yr

–1

for all RCP scenarios (WGI AR5 Table 13.1). Table

5-2 summarizes the likely ranges of 21st century GMSLR as established

by the Working Group I contribution to this Assessment Report.

From a coastal risk management perspective (Nicholls et al., 2013)

assessments of impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation have been using

GMSLR scenarios above the ranges put forward by WGI reports of AR4

(Meehl et al., 2007; Table 10.7) and AR5 (WGI AR5 Table 13.5). The ranges

estimated by WGI of AR4 and AR5 include only those components of

GMSLR that can be quantified using process-based models (i.e., models

derived from the laws of physics; WGI AR5 Glossary). The ranges given

in AR4 thus explicitly excluded contributions to GMSLR resulting from

changes in ice flows from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica

because at that time process-based models were not able to assess this

with sufficient confidence (Meehl et al., 2007; WGI AR5 Section 4.4.5).

Since then, understanding has increased and the likely range of GMSLR

given in AR5 now includes ice sheet flow contributions. Likely, however,

Climate-related driver Physical /chemical effects Trends Projections Progress since AR4

ea level Submergence, ﬂ ood damage,

rosion; saltwater intrusion; rising

water tables / impeded drainage;

etland loss (and change).

lobal mean sea level very likely

ncrease (Section 5.3.2.2; WGI AR5

Sections 3.7.2, 3.7.3).

lobal mean sea level very likely

ncrease (see Table 5.1; WGI AR5

Section 13.5.1).

egional variability (Section 5.3.2.2;

WGI AR5 Chapter 13).

mproved conﬁ dence in

ontributions to observed sea level.

More information on regional and

ocal sea level rise.

torms: tropical cyclones (TCs),

extratropical cyclones (ETCs)

torm surges and storm waves,

coastal ﬂ ooding, erosion; saltwater

ntrusion; rising water tables /

impeded drainage; wetland loss

(

and change). Coastal infrastructure

damage and ﬂ ood defense failure.

Cs (Box 5-1, WGI AR5 Section

2.6.3): low conﬁ dence in trends

n frequency and intensity due to

limitations in observations and

egional variability.

ETCs (Section 5.3.3.1; WGI AR5

ection 2.6.4): likely poleward

movement of circulation features

but low conﬁ dence in intensity

hanges.

Cs (Box 5-1): likely decrease to no

change in frequency; likely increase

n the most intense TCs.

ETCs (Section 5.3.3.1): high

onﬁ dence that reduction of

ETCs will be small globally. Low

onﬁ dence in changes in intensity.

owering of conﬁ dence of observed

trends in TCs and ETCs since AR4.

ore basin-speciﬁ c information on

storm track changes.

Winds Wind waves, storm surges, coastal

urrents, land coastal infrastructure

damage.

Low conﬁ dence in trends in mean

nd extreme wind speeds (Section

5.3.3.2, SREX, WGI AR5 Section

.4.5).

Low conﬁ dence in projected mean

ind speeds. Likely increase in

TC extreme wind speeds (Section

.3.3.2, SREX).

Winds not speciﬁ cally addressed

n AR4.

Waves Coastal erosion, overtopping and

coastal ﬂ ooding.

Likely positive trends in Hs in high

latitudes (Section 5.3.3.2; WGI AR5

ection 3.4.5).

Low conﬁ dence for projections

overall but medium conﬁ dence for

outhern Ocean increases in Hs

(Section 5.3.3.2).

Large increase in number of wave

projection studies since AR4.

xtreme sea levels Coastal ﬂ ooding erosion, saltwater

intrusion.

igh conﬁ dence of increase due to

global mean sea level rise (Section

.3.3.3; WGI AR5 Chapter 13).

igh conﬁ dence of increase due

to global mean sea level rise, low

onﬁ dence of changes due to storm

changes (Section 5.3.3.3; WGI AR5

Section 13.5).

ocal subsidence is an important

contribution to regional sea level

ise in many locations.

Sea surface temperature (SST) Changes to stratiﬁ cation and

circulation; reduced incidence

of sea ice at higher latitudes;

increased coral bleaching and

mortality, poleward species

migration; increased algal blooms.

High conﬁ dence that coastal SST

increase is higher than global SST

increase (Section 5.3.3.4).

High conﬁ dence that coastal

SSTs will increase with projected

temperature increase (Section

5.3.3.4).

Emerging information on coastal

changes in SSTs.

Freshwater input Altered ﬂ ood risk in coastal

lowlands; altered water quality /

salinity; altered ﬂ uvial sediment

supply; altered circulation and

nutrient supply.

Medium conﬁ dence (limited

evidence) in a net declining trend in

annual volume of freshwater input

(Section 5.3.3.6).

Medium conﬁ dence for general

increase in high latitudes and

wet tropics and decrease in other

tropical regions (Section 5.3.3.6).

Emerging information on

freshwater input.

Ocean acidity Increased CO

fertilization;

decreased seawater pH and

carbonate ion concentration (or

“ocean acidiﬁ cation”).

High conﬁ dence of overall increase,

with high local and regional

variability (Section 5.3.3.5).

High conﬁ dence of increase at

unprecedented rates but with

local and regional variability (Box

CC-OA).

Coastal ocean acidiﬁ cation not

speciﬁ cally addressed in AR4.

Considerable progress made in

chemical projections and biological

impacts.

Table 5-1 | Main climate-related drivers for coastal systems, their trends due to climate change, and their main physical and ecosystem effects.

SREX = IPCC 2012 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.

369

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

eans that there is still a 0 to 33% probability of GMSLR beyond this

range, and coastal risk management needs to consider this. WGI does

not assign probabilities to GMSLR beyond the likely range, because this

cannot be done with the available process-based models. WGI, however,

assigns medium confidence that 21st century GMSLR does not exceed

the likely range by several tenths of a meter (WGI AR5 Section 13.5.1).

When using other approaches such as semi-empirical models, evidence

from past climates and physical constraints on ice-sheet dynamics

GMSLR upper bounds of up to 2.4 m by 2100 have been estimated, but

there is low agreement on these higher estimates and no consensus on

a 21st century upper bound (WGI AR5 Section 13.5.3). Coastal risk

management is thus left to choose an upper bound of GMSLR to

consider based on which level of risk is judged to be acceptable in the

specific case. The Dutch Delta Programme, for example, considered a

21st century GMSLR of 1.3 m as the upper bound.

It is virtually certain that sea level rise will continue beyond the 21st

century, although projections beyond 2100 are based on fewer and

simpler models that include lower resolution coupled climate models

for thermal expansion and ice sheet models coupled to climate models

to project ice sheet contributions. The basis for the projections are the

Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs), and projections are provided

for low, medium, and high scenarios that relate to atmospheric GHG

concentrations <500, 500 to 700, and >700 ppm respectively (WGI AR5

Section 13.5.2). Projections of GMSLR up to 2500 are also summarized

in Table 5-2.

5.3.2.2. Regional Sea Level

Sea level rise will not be uniform in space and time. Natural modes of

climate variability influence sea levels in different regions of the globe

and this will affect the rate of rise on interannual and interdecadal time

periods. For example, in the equatorial Pacific, sea levels can vary from

the global mean by up to 40 cm due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

(ENSO; e.g., Walsh et al., 2012) and this can strongly influence trends

on decadal scales. Regional variations in the rate of sea level rise on

the coast can arise from climate and ocean dynamic processes such as

changes in winds and air pressure, air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes,

and ocean currents and their steric properties (Timmermann et al., 2010;

WGI AR5 FAQ 13.1). Although the vast majority of coastlines are

experiencing sea level rise, coastlines near current and former glaciers

and ice sheets are experiencing relative sea level fall (Milne et al., 2009;

GI AR5 FAQ 13.1). This is because the gravitational attraction of the

ice sheet decreases as it melts and exerts less pull on the oceans and

also because the land tends to rise as the ice melts, the shape of the

sea floor changes under the reduced load of the ice sheets, and the

change in mass distribution alters the Earth’s rotation (WGI AR5 FAQ

13.1; Gomez et al., 2010). In terms of absolute sea level change,

approximately 70% of the global coastlines are projected to experience

sea level change that is within 20% of the global mean sea level change

(WGI AR5 Section 13.6.5).

5.3.2.3. Local Sea Level

Besides the effect of long-term vertical land movement on regional sea

level, RSLR can occur locally due to subsidence or uplifts of coastal

plains as well as due to other natural causes. Natural subsidence can

occur because of sediment compaction and loading, as in the Mississippi

River, and other deltas (Törnqvist et al., 2008; Dokka, 2011; Marriner et

al., 2012). Tectonic movements, both sustained and abrupt, have brought

about relative sea level changes. The Great East Japan Earthquake in

2011 caused subsidence of up to 1.2 m of the Pacific coast of northeast

Japan (Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, 2011). The Sumatra-

Andaman earthquake in 2004 and subsequent earthquakes in 2005

produced vertical deformation ranging from uplift of 3 m to subsidence

of 1 m (Briggs et al., 2006). These movements are especially important

in coastal zones located near active plate margins.

Anthropogenic causes of RSLR include sediment consolidation from

building loads, reduced sediment delivery to the coast, and extraction

of subsurface resources such as gas, petroleum, and groundwater.

Subsidence rates may also be sensitive to the rates of oil and gas

removal (e.g., Kolker et al., 2011). Syvitski et al. (2009) estimate that

the majority of the world’s largest deltas are currently subsiding at rates

that are considerably larger than the current rates of sea level rise

because of coastal sediment starvation due to substantial dam building

over the 20th century or sediment compaction through natural or

anthropogenic activities. Many large cities on deltas and coastal plains

have subsided during the last 100 years: ~4.4 m in eastern Tokyo, ~3 m

in the Po delta, ~2.6 m in Shanghai, and ~1.6 m in Bangkok (Syvitski et

al., 2009; Teatini et al., 2011). Loads from massive buildings and other

large structures can also increase sediment compaction and subsidence

(Mazzotti et al., 2009). RSLR can exceed GMSLR by an order of magnitude,

reaching more than 10 cm yr

–1

, and it is estimated that the delta surface

Emission

scenario

Representative

Concentration

Pathway (RCP)

2100 CO

concentration

(ppm)

Mean sea level rise (m)

Emission

scenario

Mean sea level rise (m)

2046–2065 2100 2200 2300 2500

Low 2.6 421 0.24 [0.17–0.32] 0.44 [0.28–0.61] Low 0.35–0.72 0.41–0.85 0.50–1.02

Medium low 4.5 538 0.26 [0.19–0.33] 0.53 [0.36–0.71] Medium 0.26–1.09 0.27–1.51 0.18–2.32

Medium high 6.0 670 0.25 [0.18–0.32] 0.55 [0.38–0.73]

High 0.58–2.03 0.92–3.59 1.51–6.63

High 8.5 936 0.29 [0.22–0.38] 0.74 [0.52–0.98]

Table 5-2 | Projections of global mean sea level rise in meters relative to 1986–2005 are based on ocean thermal expansion calculated from climate models, the contributions

from glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica from surface mass balance calculations using climate model temperature projections, the range of the contribution from Greenland and

Antarctica due to dynamical processes, and the terrestrial contribution to sea levels, estimated from available studies. For sea levels up to and including 2100, the central values

and the 5–95% range are given whereas for projections from 2200 onwards, the range represents the model spread due to the small number of model projections available and

the high scenario includes projections based on RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Source: WGI AR5 Summary for Policymakers and Sections 12.4.1, 13.5.1, and 13.5.4.

370

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

rea vulnerable to flooding could increase by 50% for 33 deltas around

the world under the sea level rise as projected for 2100 by the IPCC

AR4 (Syvitski et al., 2009).

Clearly large regional variations in the projected sea level rise, together

with local factors such as subsidence, indicates that RSLR can be much

larger than projected GMSLR and therefore is an important consideration

in impact assessments (very high confidence).

5.3.3. Climate-Related Drivers

Increasing GHGs in the atmosphere produce changes in the climate

system on a range of time scales that impact the coastal physical

environment. On shorter time scales, physical coastal impacts such as

inundation, erosion, and coastal flooding arise from severe storm-

induced surges, wave overtopping, and rainfall runoff. On longer time

scales, wind and wave climate change can cause changes in sediment

transport at the coast and associated changes in erosion or accretion.

Natural modes of climate variability, which can affect severe storm

behavior and wind and wave climate, may also undergo anthropogenic

changes in the future. Ocean and atmospheric temperature change can

affect species distribution with impacts on coastal biodiversity. Carbon

dioxide (CO

) uptake in the ocean increases ocean acidity and reduces

the saturation state of carbonate minerals, essential for shell and

skeletal formation in many coastal species. Changes in freshwater

input can alter coastal ocean salinity concentrations. Past and future

changes to these physical drivers are discussed in this section (see also

Table 5-1).

5.3.3.1. Severe Storms

Severe storms such as tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can

generate storm surges over coastal seas. The severity of these depends

on the storm track, regional bathymetry, nearshore hydrodynamics, and

the contribution from waves. Globally there is low confidence regarding

changes in tropical cyclone activity over the 20th century owing to

changes in observational capabilities, although it is virtually certain that

there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of the

strongest tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic since the 1970s (WGI

AR5 Section 2.6). In the future, it is likely that the frequency of tropical

cyclones globally will either decrease or remain unchanged, but there

will be a likely increase in global mean tropical cyclone precipitation

rates and maximum wind speed (WGI AR5 Section 14.6).

ETCs occur throughout the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, and their

development is linked to large-scale circulation patterns. Assessment of

changes in these circulation features reveals a widening of the tropical

belt, poleward shift of storm tracks and jet streams, and contraction of

the polar vortex; this leads to the assessment that it is likely that, in a

zonal mean sense, circulation features have moved poleward (WGI

AR5 Sections 2.7.5 to 2.7.8) but there is low confidence regarding

regional changes in intensity of ETCs (e.g., Seneviratne et al., 2012).

With regard to future changes, a small poleward shift is likely in the

Southern Hemisphere but changes in the Northern Hemisphere are

basin specific and of lower confidence (WGI AR5 Section 14.6.3).

lobally, it is unlikely that the number of ETCs will fall by more than a

few percent due to anthropogenic climate change (high confidence;

WGI AR5 Section 14.6.3).

5.3.3.2. Extreme Sea Levels

Extreme sea levels are those that arise from combinations of factors

including astronomical tides, storm surges, wind waves and swell, and

interannual variability in sea levels. Storm surges are caused by the

falling atmospheric pressures and surface wind stress associated with

storms such as tropical and ETCs and therefore may change if storms

are affected by climate change. To date, however, observed trends in

extreme sea levels are mainly consistent with mean sea level (MSL)

trends (e.g., Marcos et al., 2009; Haigh et al., 2010; Menendez and

Woodworth, 2010; Losada et al., 2013) indicating that MSL trends rather

than changes in weather patterns are responsible.

Assuming that sea level extremes follow a simple extreme value

distribution (i.e., a Gumbel distribution), and accounting for the

uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise, Hunter (2012) has

developed a technique for estimating a sea level allowance, that is, the

minimum height that structures would need to be raised in a future

period so that the number of exceedances of that height remains the

same as under present climate conditions (Figure 5-2). Such an allowance

can be factored into adaptive responses to rising sea levels. It should be

noted, however, that extreme sea level distributions might not follow a

simple Gumbel distribution (e.g., Tebaldi et al., 2012) owing to different

factors influencing extreme levels that may not be measured by tide

gauges (e.g., Hoeke et al., 2013).

Regarding future changes to storm surges, hydrodynamic models forced

by climate models have been used in several extratropical regional

studies such as the northeast Atlantic (e.g., Debenard and Roed, 2008;

Wang et al., 2008; Sterl et al., 2009) and southern Australia (Colberg

and McInnes, 2012). These studies show strong regional variability and

sensitivity to the choice of Global Climate Model (GCM) or Regional

Climate Model (RCM). The effect of future tropical cyclone changes on

storm surges has also been investigated in a number of regions using

a range of different methods. These include methods to stochastically

generate and/or perturb cyclones within background environmental

conditions that represent historical (e.g., Harper et al., 2009) and GCM-

represented future conditions (e.g., Mousavi et al., 2011; Lin et al.,

2012). Regional studies include Australia’s tropical east coast (Harper

et al., 2009), Louisiana (Smith et al., 2010), Gulf of Mexico (Mousavi et

al., 2011), India (Unnikrishnan et al., 2011), and New York (Lin et al., 2012),

and the details of the methods and findings vary considerably between

the studies. While some studies indicate for some regions increase to

extreme sea levels due to changes in storms, others indicate the opposite.

In general, the small number of regional storm surge studies together

with the different atmospheric forcing factors and modeling approaches

means that there is low confidence in projections of storm surges due

to changes in storm characteristics. However, observed upward trends

in MSL together with projected increases for 2100 and beyond indicate

that coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience

extreme sea levels and their adverse impacts (high confidence) (see also

WGI AR5 Section 13.7).

371

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

5.3.3.3. Winds and Waves

Changes in wind climate affect large-scale wave climate. Winds also

influence longshore current regimes and hence upwelling systems

(Narayan et al., 2010; Miranda et al., 2012; see also Sections 6.3.3,

6.3.5). Energy dissipation via wave breaking contributes to longshore

and cross-shore currents, elevated coastal sea levels through wave set-

up, and run-up and beach erosion. Changes to wind and wave climate

therefore can affect sediment dynamics and shoreline processes (e.g.,

Aargaard et al., 2004; Reguero et al., 2013), and extreme winds and

waves are a threat to coastal populations. The coastal impacts of wave

climate change are also a function of wave direction and period as well

as the coastline itself, which can influence shoaling and refraction. Long

period swell, which dominates the wave energy field, poses a significant

danger to coastal and offshore structures and shipping (e.g., Semedo

et al., 2011) and can causes significant flooding of coastlines with steep

shelf margins (Hoeke et al., 2013).

There is low confidence in trends calculated from measurements of

mean and extreme winds and their causes due to the limited length of

records and uncertainties associated with different wind measurement

techniques (Seneviratne et al., 2012). However, there is increasing

evidence for a strengthening wind stress field in the Southern Ocean

since the early 1980s from atmospheric reanalyses, satellite observations,

and island station data (WGI AR5 Section 3.4.5). Positive trends in wave

height have been detected in the Northeast Atlantic over the 1958–2002

period based on reanalyses and ship observations and in the Southern

Ocean between 1985 and 2008 based on satellite data (medium

confidence) (WGI AR5 Section 3.4.6; see Table 5-2).

Projected changes in mean and extreme winds and waves were assigned

low confidence (Seneviratne et al., 2012) owing to limited studies.

Although there has been an increase in studies addressing future wave

climate change (Hemer et al., 2013), generally low confidence remains

in projected wave climate change (except for medium confidence over

the Southern Ocean), and this is due to uncertainties in future winds,

particularly those associated with storms (see WGI AR5 Section 13.7).

5.3.3.4. Sea Surface Temperature

Sea surface temperature (SST) has significantly warmed during the past

30 years along more than 70% of the world’s coastlines, with highly

heterogeneous rates of change both spatially and seasonally (Lima and

Wethey, 2012). The average rate is 0.18 ± 0.16°C per decade and the

average change in seasonal timing was -3.3 ± 4.4 days per decade.

These values are larger than in the global ocean where the average of

change is 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13]°C per decade in the upper 75 m of the

ocean during the 1971–2010 period (WGI AR5 Section 3.2.2) and the

seasonal shift is -2.3 days per decade (Lima and Wethey, 2012). Extreme

°120W °60W

°60S

°30S

°30N

°60N

°60E °120E °180W °0

°0

Allowance (m)

Figure 5-2 | The estimated increase in height (m) that ﬂood protection structures would need to be raised in the 2081–2100 period to preserve the same frequency of

exceedances that was experienced for the 1986–2005 period, shown for 182 tide gauge locations and assuming regionally varying relative sea level rise projections under an

Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario (adapted from Hunter et al., 2013).

372

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

vents have also been reported. For example, the record high ocean

temperatures along the western Australian coast during the austral

summer of 2010/2011, with nearshore temperatures peaking at about

5°C above average, were unprecedented (Pearce and Feng, 2013). In

summary, positive trends in coastal SSTs are seen on the majority of

coastlines, and the rate of rise along coastlines is higher on average

than the oceans (high confidence). Based on projected temperature

increases there is high confidence that positive coastal SST trends will

continue.

5.3.3.5. Ocean Acidification

Anthropogenic ocean acidification refers to the changes in the carbonate

chemistry primarily due to the uptake of atmospheric CO

(Box CC-OA).

Seawater pH exhibits a much larger spatial and temporal variability in

coastal waters compared to open ocean owing to the variable contribution

of processes other than CO

uptake (Duarte et al., 2013a) such as upwelling

intensity (Feely et al., 2008; Box CC-UP), deposition of atmospheric

nitrogen and sulfur (Doney et al., 2007), carbonate chemistry of riverine

waters (Salisbury et al., 2008; Aufdenkampe et al., 2011), as well as

inputs of nutrients and organic matter (Borges, 2011; Cai et al., 2011).

For example, pH (NBS scale) ranges from 6 to 9 in 24 estuaries (Borges

and Abril, 2011) and short-term (hours to weeks) changes of up to 0.5

pH units are not unusual in coastal ecosystems (Hofmann et al., 2011).

Few high-quality ocean acidification time series exceed 5 years in the

coastal ocean (Wootton et al., 2008; Provoost et al., 2010; Waldbusser

et al., 2010). Some exhibit considerable differences compared to open

ocean stations, illustrating that anthropogenic ocean acidification can

be lessened or enhanced by processes such as primary production,

respiration, and calcification (Borges and Gypens, 2010; Kleypas et al.,

2011).

Under the IS92a CO

emission scenario, the global pH (total scale) of

coastal waters has been projected to decrease from about 8.16 in the

year 1850 to 7.83 in 2100 (Lerman et al., 2011) but with considerable

spatial variability. For example, using the same CO

emission scenario,

Cai et al. (2011) projected an overall decline of pH in the Northern Gulf

of Mexico of 0.74 over the same period, a value that is much greater

than that of the open ocean (Box CC-OA).

To summarize, seawater pH exhibits considerable temporal and spatial

variability in coastal areas compared to open ocean owing to additional

natural and human influences (very high confidence). Coastal acidification

is projected to continue but with large and uncertain regional and local

variations (high confidence).

5.3.3.6. Freshwater Input

Changes in river runoff arise from changes in climate drivers such as

precipitation, complex interactions between changing levels of CO

plant physiology, and, consequently, evapotranspiration (e.g., Gedney

et al., 2006; Betts et al., 2007) as well as human drivers such as land

use change, water withdrawal, dam building, and other engineered

modifications to waterways (see more detailed discussion in Chapter 3).

n assessment of runoff trends in 925 of the world’s largest ocean-

reaching rivers, which account for about 73% of global total runoff,

indicates that from 1948–2004 statistically significant trends were

present in only one-third of the top 200 rivers and, of these, two-thirds

exhibited downward trends and one-third upward trends (Dai et al.,

2009). While precipitation changes dominate freshwater flows, decreasing

trends in river discharges may be further enhanced as a result of human

pressures (Dai et al., 2009; Section 3.2.3).

Average annual runoff is generally projected to increase at high latitudes

and in the wet tropics and to decrease in most dry tropical regions

(Section 3.4.5). Shifts to earlier peak flows are also projected in areas

affected by snowmelt (Adam et al, 2009). However, there are some

regions where there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and

direction of change, specifically South Asia and large parts of South

America. Both the patterns of change and the uncertainty are largely

driven by projected changes in precipitation.

To summarize, there is medium confidence (limited evidence, high

agreement) in a net declining trend in freshwater input globally, although

large regional variability exists. Trends are dominated by precipitation

changes although human pressures on water supply may enhance

downward trends (medium confidence). Uncertainty in future changes

in runoff is linked to precipitation uncertainty. Runoff is generally

projected to increase in high latitudes with earlier peak flows and in

the wet tropics and decrease in other tropical regions, however, with

large uncertainty (medium confidence).

5.3.4. Human-Related Drivers

Coastal systems are subject to a wide range of human-related or

anthropogenic drivers (e.g., Crain et al., 2009) that interact with climate-

related drivers and confound efforts to attribute impacts to climate

change. Some of the major terrestrially based human drivers that

directly or indirectly cause changes are briefly reviewed. Related drivers

in the marine environment are discussed in Sections 6.4 and 30.6.

5.3.4.1. Socioeconomic Development

Socioeconomic development (SED) drives coastal impacts in several

ways. SED influences the number of people and the value of assets

exposed to coastal hazards. Since AR4, a number of studies have

estimated the influence of future sea level rise and associated hazards

on coastal population and assets. Although these estimates are subject

to uncertainties associated with global elevation and population data

sets (Lichter et al., 2011; Mondal and Tatem, 2012), all the studies

indicate high and growing exposure of low-lying coastal areas. The Low

Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) constitutes 2% of the world’s land area

but contains 10% of the world’s population (600 million) and 13% of

the world’s urban population (360 million), based on year 2000

estimates (McGranahan et al., 2007). About 65% of the world’s cities

with populations of greater than 5 million are located in the LECZ

(McGranahan et al., 2007). The global population exposed to the 1-in-

100-year extreme sea level (i.e., the sea level that has a 1% chance of

being exceeded every year) has increased by 95% from 1970 to 2010,

373

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

ith about 270 million people and US$13 trillion worth of assets being

exposed to the 1-in-100-year extreme sea level in 2010 (Jongman et al.,

2012). In 2002, about US$1.9 trillion worth of assets below the 1-in-

100-year extreme sea level were concentrated in the following 10 port

cities: Miami (USA), New York-Newark (USA), New Orleans (USA), Osaka-

Kobe (Japan), Tokyo (Japan), Amsterdam (Netherlands), Rotterdam

(Netherlands), Nagoya (Japan), Virginia Beach (USA), and Guangzhou

(China) (Hanson et al., 2011). Compared to other regions, Asia exhibits

the greatest exposure in terms of population and assets (Jongman et

al., 2012).

For many locations, population and assets exposure is growing faster

than the national average trends owing to coastward migration, coastal

industrialization, and urbanization (e.g., McGranahan et al., 2007; Seto,

2011; Smith, 2011; see also Chapter 8; high confidence). Coastal net

migration has largely taken place in flood- and cyclone-prone areas,

which poses a challenge for adaptation (de Sherbinin et al., 2011). These

processes and associated land use changes are driven by a combination

of many social, economic, and institutional factors including taxes,

subsidies, insurance schemes, aesthetic and recreational attractiveness

of the coast, and increased mobility (Bagstad et al., 2007; Palmer et

al., 2011). In China, the country with the largest exposed population,

urbanization and land reclamation are the major drivers of coastal land

use change (Zhu et al., 2012). Although coastal migration is expected

to continue in the coming decades, it is difficult to capture this process

in global scenarios, as the drivers of migration and urbanization are

complex and variable (Black et al., 2011).

SED also influences the capacity to adapt. Poor people living in urban

informal settlements, of which there are about 1 billion worldwide, are

particularly vulnerable to weather and climate impacts (de Sherbinin et

al., 2011; Handmer et al., 2012). The top five nations classified by

population in coastal low-lying areas are developing and newly

industrialized countries: Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, India, and Indonesia

(McGranahan et al., 2007; Bollman et al., 2010; Jongman et al., 2012).

SED and associated land reclamation are also major drivers of the

destruction of coastal wetlands, which also makes human settlements

more vulnerable because wetlands act as natural buffers reducing wave

and storm impacts on the coast (e.g., Crain et al., 2009; Shepard et al.,

2011; Arkema et al., 2013; Duarte et al., 2013b). Finally, socioeconomic

development is expected to exacerbate further a number of human

pressures on coastal systems related to nutrient loads, hypoxia, and

sediment delivery, which is discussed in the following subsections.

5.3.4.2. Nutrients

Increased river nutrient (nitrogen, phosphorus) loads to coasts in many

regions are observed, and simulated by regional and global models

(Alexander et al., 2008; Seitzinger et al., 2010). Anthropogenic global loads

of dissolved inorganic nutrients (DIN, DIP) are two to three times larger

than those of natural sources (Seitzinger et al., 2010), causing coastal

ecosystem degradation (Sections 5.3.4.3, 5.4.2.6). Large variations exist

in magnitude and relative sources of nutrient loads. Anthropogenic

sources are related primarily to fertilizer use in agriculture and fossil

fuel emissions (NO

) (Galloway et al., 2004; Bouwman et al., 2009).

Future trends depend on measures available to optimize nutrient use

n crop production and minimize loss to rivers from agriculture (crop,

livestock), sewage, and NO

emissions. In scenarios with little emphasis

on nutrient management, global nutrient discharge increases (DIN

29%, DIP 64%) between 2000 and 2050 (Seitzinger et al., 2010). With

ambitious nutrient management, global DIN loads decrease slightly and

DIP increases (35%). Climate change is projected to change water

runoff (Chapter 3) that influences river nutrient loads. Studies of climate

change effects related to increased watershed nutrient sources are

needed. In summary, nutrient loads have increased in many world regions

(high confidence); future increases will depend largely on nutrient

management practices (medium confidence).

5.3.4.3. Hypoxia

The presence of excessive nutrients in coastal waters, which causes

eutrophication and the subsequent decomposition of organic matter, is

the primary cause of decreased oxygen concentration (hypoxia).

Globally, upwelling of low oxygen waters (e.g., Grantham et al., 2004) and

ocean warming, which decreases the solubility of oxygen in seawater

(Shaffer et al., 2009), are secondary drivers but can be locally important.

The oxygen decline rate is greater in coastal waters than in the open

ocean (Gilbert et al., 2010). Hypoxia poses a serious threat to marine

life, which is exacerbated when combined with elevated temperature

(Vaquer-Sunyer and Duarte, 2011; see also Section 6.3.3). The number

of so-called “dead zones” has approximately doubled each decade

since 1960 (Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008). Fishery catches from these

areas are generally lower than predicted from nutrient loading alone

(Breitburg et al., 2009). Although non-climate anthropogenic factors are

responsible for virtually all hypoxia in estuaries and inner continental

shelves, climate drivers such as ocean warming, altered hydrological

cycles, and coastal current shifts and changes in upwellings may interact

with eutrophication in the next decades (Rabalais et al., 2010; Meire et

al., 2013; high confidence).

5.3.4.4. Sediment Delivery

Human activities in drainage basins and coastal plains have impacted

the coastal zone by changing the delivery of sediment to the coast.

Sediment trapping behind dams, water diversion for irrigation, and sand

and gravel mining in river channels all contribute to decrease sediment

delivery, whereas soil erosion due to land use changes helps increase

it (Syvitski, 2008; Walling, 2006). It is estimated that the global discharge

of riverine sediment was 16 to 19 Gt yr

–1

in the 1950s before widespread

dam construction (e.g., Syvitski et al., 2005; Milliman and Farnsworth,

2011) and it has decreased to 12 to 13 Gt yr

–1

(Syvitski and Kettner, 2011).

Out of 145 major rivers with mostly more than 25 years of record, only

seven showed evidence of an increase in sediment flux while 68 showed

significant downward trends (Walling and Fang, 2003). The number of

dams has increased continuously and their distribution has expanded

globally. As of early 2011, the world has an estimated 16.7 million

reservoirs larger than 0.01 ha (Lehner et al., 2011). Globally, 34 rivers

with drainage basins of 19 million km

in total show a 75% reduction

in sediment discharge over the past 50 years (Milliman and Farnsworth,

2011). Reservoir trapping of sediments is estimated globally as 3.6 Gt

–1

to more than 5 Gt yr

–1

(Syvitski et al., 2005; Milliman and Farnsworth,

374

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

011; Walling, 2012). Human pressure is the main driver of the observed

declining trend in sediment delivery to the coast (high agreement).

5.4. Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Risks

5.4.1. Introduction

This subsection briefly introduces the diverse approaches and methods

applied in the literature on coastal impact, vulnerability, and risk. The

following subsections then assess this literature related to coastal

natural systems (Section 5.4.2) and coastal human systems (Section

5.4.3). Much of this literature focuses on RSLR and extreme sea level

events as the main drivers. The main biophysical impacts of this driver

are increasing flood damage, dry-land loss due to submergence and

erosion, wetland loss and change, saltwater intrusion into surface and

ground water, and rising water tables and impeded drainage (Table 5-3).

Impacts and risks are assessed using a wide variety of approaches from

the local to global scale. Sea level rise exposure approaches are applied

at all scales to assess values exposed to sea level rise (e.g., people,

assets, ecosystems, or geomorphological units). Submergence exposure

approaches assess exposure to permanent inundation under a given

sea level rise (e.g., Dasgupta et al., 2009; Boateng, 2012) whereas flood

exposure approaches assess exposure to temporary inundation during

a coastal flood event by combining the extreme water level of the flood

event with a given level of sea level rise (e.g., Dasgupta et al., 2011;

Kebede and Nicholls, 2012).

Indicator-based approaches are also used at all scales to aggregate data

on the current state of the coastal systems into vulnerability indices

(

Gornitz, 1991; Hinkel, 2011), based on either biophysical exposure or

hazard variables (e.g., Bosom and Jimenez, 2011; Yin et al., 2012),

socioeconomic variables representing a social group’s capacity to adapt

(e.g., Cinner et al., 2012), or both kinds of variables (e.g., Bjarnadottir

et al., 2011; Li and Li, 2011; Yoo et al., 2011).

At local scales (<100 km coastal length), process-based models are

applied to assess flooding, erosion, and wetland impacts. Approaches

include assessments of flood damage of single extreme water level

events using numerical inundation models (e.g., Lewis et al., 2011; Xia

et al., 2011). Erosion impacts are assessed using either numerical

morphodynamic models (e.g., Jiménez et al., 2009; Ranasinghe et al.,

2012) or simple geometric profile relationships such as the Bruun Rule

(Bruun, 1962). For ecosystem impacts ecological landscape simulation

models are used to predict habitat change due to sea level rise and

other factors (e.g., Costanza et al., 1990).

At regional to global scales, numerical process-based models are not

available for assessing the impacts of RSLR and extreme sea level events

due to data and computational limits. Global scale assessments of coastal

impacts have been conducted with the models Climate Framework for

Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) and Dynamic and

Interactive Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA). FUND is an integrated

assessment model with a coastal impact component that includes

country-level cost functions for dry-land loss, wetland loss, forced

migration, and dike construction (Tol, 2002). DIVA is a dedicated coastal

impact model employing subnational coastal data (Vafeidis et al., 2008)

and considering additional impacts such as coastal flooding and erosion

as well as adaptation in terms of protection via dikes and nourishment

(Hinkel and Klein, 2009). DIVA assesses coastal flood risk based on

hydrologically connected elevation and extreme water level distributions

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 5.1 | How does climate change affect coastal marine ecosystems?

The major climate-related drivers on marine coastal ecosystems are sea level rise, ocean warming, and ocean

acidiﬁcation.

Rising sea level impacts marine ecosystems by drowning some plants and animals as well as by inducing changes of

parameters such as available light, salinity, and temperature. The impact of sea level is related mostly to the capacity

of animals (e.g., corals) and plants (e.g., mangroves) to keep up with the vertical rise of the sea. Mangroves and

coastal wetlands can be sensitive to these shifts and could leak some of their stored compounds, adding to the

atmospheric supply of these greenhouse gases.

Warmer temperatures have direct impacts on species adjusted to speciﬁc and sometimes narrow temperature

ranges. They raise the metabolism of species exposed to the higher temperatures and can be fatal to those already

living at the upper end of their temperature range. Warmer temperatures cause coral bleaching, which weakens

those animals and makes them vulnerable to mortality. The geographical distribution of many species of marine

plants and animals shifts towards the poles in response to warmer temperatures.

When atmospheric carbon dioxide is absorbed into the ocean, it reacts to produce carbonic acid, which increases

the acidity of seawater and diminishes the amount of a key building block (carbonate) used by marine ‘calciﬁers’

such as shellﬁsh and corals to make their shells and skeletons and may ultimately weaken or dissolve them. Ocean

acidiﬁcation has a number of other impacts, many of which are still poorly understood.

375

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

(Hinkel et al., 2013) and erosion based on a combination of the Bruun

Rule and a simplified version of the Aggregated Scale Morphological

Interaction between a Tidal inlet and the Adjacent coast (ASMITA)

model for tidal basins (Nicholls et al., 2011). The results of these models

are discussed in Sections 5.4.3.1 and 5.5.5.

For impacts on natural systems, the key climate-related drivers considered

are temperature, ocean acidification, and sea level. A variety of approaches

are applied including field observations of ecosystem features (e.g.,

biodiversity, reproduction) and functioning (e.g., calcification, primary

production), remote sensing (e.g., extent of coral bleaching, surface area

of vegetated habitats), and perturbation experiments in the laboratory

and in the field.

5.4.2. Natural Systems

Coastal ecosystems are experiencing large cumulative impacts related

to human activities (Halpern et al., 2008) arising from both land- and

ocean-based anthropogenic drivers. Anthropogenic drivers associated

with global climate change are distributed widely and are an important

component of cumulative impacts experienced by coastal ecosystems.

There is no wetland, mangrove, estuary, rocky shore, or coral reef that

is not exhibiting some degree of impact. Overexploitation and habitat

destruction are often the primary causes of historical changes in coastal

systems leading to declines in diversity, structure, and functioning (Lotze

et al., 2006). Further, extreme climate events generate changes to both the

mean and the variance of climatic variables over ecological time scales.

5.4.2.1. Beaches, Barriers, and Sand Dunes

Beaches, barriers, and sand dunes are about half as common as rocky

coasts (Bird, 2000; Davis and FitzGerald, 2004) and often exhibit distinct

and seasonal changes. Owing to their aesthetic qualities, they are highly

valued for recreation and residences.

5.4.2.1.1. Observed impacts

Globally, beaches and dunes have in general undergone net erosion

over the past century or longer (e.g., for an overview, see Bird, 2000).

A number of studies have investigated shoreline change by comparing

historical maps and imagery, available since about the mid-19th century

with more recent maps and imagery to quantify combined climate and

non-climate changes. For example, along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New

England coasts the long-term rate of erosion, based on 21,184 transects

equally spaced along more than 1000 km of coast, is 0.5 ± 0.09 m yr

–1

with 65% of transects showing net erosion (Hapke et al., 2011). A

similar study by Webb and Kench (2010) in the central Pacific utilized

historical aerial photographs and satellite images to show physical

changes in 27 islets located in four atolls over a 19- to 61-year period.

The analysis highlighted the dynamic nature of sea level rise response

in the recent past, with physical changes in shoreline progradation and

displacement influencing whether the island area increased (46%),

remained stable (46%), or decreased (14%).

Attributing shoreline changes to climate change is still difficult owing

to the multiple natural and anthropogenic drivers contributing to

coastal erosion. For example, rotation of pocket beaches (i.e., where one

end of the beach accretes while the other erodes and then the pattern

reverses) in southeast Australia is closely related to interannual changes

in swell direction (Harley et al., 2010). Additional processes, unrelated

to climate change, that contribute to coastal change include dams

capturing fluvial sand (e.g., in Morocco; Chaibi and Sedrati, 2009).

Statistically linking sea level rise to observed magnitudes of beach

erosion has had some success, although the coastal sea level change signal

is often small when compared to other processes (e.g., Leatherman et

al., 2000a,b; Sallenger et al., 2000; Zhang et al., 2004). A Bayesian

network incorporating a variety of factors affecting coastal change,

including RSLR, has been successful in hindcasting shoreline change,

and can be used to evaluate the probability of future shoreline change

(Gutierrez et al., 2011).

While some coastal systems may be able to undergo landward retreat

under rising sea levels, others will experience coastal squeeze, which

occurs when an eroding shoreline approaches hard, immobile structures

such as seawalls or resistant natural cliffs. In these instances the beaches

will narrow owing to the resulting sediment deficit and produce adverse

impacts such as habitat destruction, impacting the survivability of a

variety of organisms (Jackson and McIlvenny, 2011). With such a

manifestation of coastal squeeze, sand dunes will ultimately be removed

as the beach erodes and narrows. Extreme storms can erode and

completely remove dunes, degrading land elevations and exposing them

to inundation and further change if recovery does not occur before the

next storm (Plant et al., 2010). Even in the absence of hard obstructions,

barrier island erosion and narrowing can occur, as a result of rising sea

level and recurrent storms, as in the Chandeleur Islands and Isles

Dernieres, Louisiana, USA (Penland et al., 2005).

5.4.2.1.2. Projected impacts

With projected GMSLR (see Section 5.3.3), inundation and erosion may

become detectable and progressively important. In the first instance,

Biophysical impacts of

relative sea level rise

Other climate-related

drivers

Other human drivers

ryland loss due to erosion Sediment supply, wave and

torm climate

ctivities altering sediment

upply (e.g., sand mining)

Dryland loss due to

ubmergence

Wave and storm climate,

orphological change,

sediment supply

Sediment supply, ﬂ ood

anagement, morphological

change, land claim

etland loss and change Sediment supply, CO

ertilization

ediment supply, migration

pace, direct destruction

Increased ﬂ ood damage

hrough extreme sea level

events (storm surges,

ropical cyclones, etc.)

Wave and storm climate,

orphological change,

sediment supply

Sediment supply, ﬂ ood

anagement, morphological

change, land claim

Saltwater intrusion into

surface waters (backwater

ffect)

Runoff Catchment management

and land use (e.g., sand

ining and dretching)

Saltwater intrusion into

roundwaters leading to

rising water tables and

mpeded drainage

Precipitation Land use, aquifer use

Table 5-3 | Main impacts of relative sea level rise. Source: Adapted from Nicholls et

al. (2010).

376

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

the impacts will be apparent through sea level rise which, combined

with storm surge, will make extreme water levels higher and more

frequent and therefore enable greater attack on beaches and dunes

(Tebaldi et al., 2012).

The Bruun rule (a simple rule based on the assumption that to maintain

an equilibrium cross-shore profile under rising sea levels, the coastline

will move landwards a distance of approximately 100 times the vertical

sea level rise; Bruun, 1962) has been used by many researchers to

calculate erosion by sea level rise. However, there is disagreement

about whether the Bruun rule is appropriate (Cooper and Pilkey, 2004;

Woodroffe and Murray-Wallace, 2012), and how to calculate the amount

of retreat remains controversial (Gutierrez et al., 2011; Ranasinghe et

al., 2012). An increase in storm intensity and ocean swell may accelerate

erosion of beaches, barriers, and dunes, although in some places beach

response to sea level rise could be more complex than just a simple

retreat (Irish et al., 2010).

Coastal squeeze is expected to accelerate with a rising sea level. In

many locations, finding sufficient sand to rebuild beaches and dunes

artificially will become increasingly difficult and expensive as present

supplies near project sites are depleted (high confidence). New generation

models are emerging to estimate the costs of saving oceanfront homes

through beach nourishment relative to the structures cost (McNamara

et al., 2011). In the absence of adaptation measures, beaches and sand

dunes currently affected by erosion will continue to be affected under

increasing sea levels (high confidence).

5.4.2.2. Rocky Coasts

Rocky coasts with shore platforms form about three-fourths of the

world’s coasts (Davis and FitzGerald, 2004; Jackson and McIIvenny,

2011) and are characterized by very strong environmental gradients,

especially in the intertidal zone where both marine and atmospheric

climate regime changes can pose challenges.

5.4.2.2.1. Observed impacts

Cliffs and platforms are erosional features and any change that

increases the efficiency of processes acting on them, such as RSLR,

storminess, wave energy, and weathering regimes, increases erosion

(Naylor et al., 2010). Their responses vary, owing to different lithology

(e.g., hard rock vs. non-lithified soft rock) and profiles (e.g., plunging

cliffs or cliffs with shore platforms). Cliffs and platforms have reduced

resilience to climate change impacts; once platforms are lowered or

cliffs have retreated, it is difficult to rebuild them (Naylor et al., 2010).

On the decadal scale, for example, the retreat of soft rock cliffs in East

Anglia, UK, has been linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

phases with high energetics (Brooks and Spencer, 2013).

Changes in the abundance and distribution of rocky shore animals and

algae have long been recognized (Hawkins et al., 2008), and perturbation

experiments provide information about environmental limits, acclimation,

and adaptation, particularly to changes in temperature (Somero, 2012).

The challenge is to attribute the changes to climate-related drivers,

human-related drivers, and to natural fluctuations.

The range limits of many intertidal species have shifted by up to 50 km

per decade over the past 30 years in the North Pacific and North

Atlantic, much faster than most recorded shifts of terrestrial species

(Helmuth et al., 2006; Box CC-MB). However, the distribution of some

species has not changed in recent decades, which may be due to weak

local warming (Rivadeneira and Fernández, 2005) or overriding effects

of variables such as timing of low tide; hydrographic features; lack of

suitable substrate; poor larval dispersal; and effects of food supply,

predation, and competition (Helmuth et al., 2002, 2006; Poloczanska et

al., 2011).

The dramatic decline of biodiversity in mussel beds of the Californian

coast has been attributed to large-scale processes associated with

climate-related drivers (59% mean loss in species richness, comparing

2002 to historical data (1960s to 1970s); Smith et al., 2006) (high

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 5.2 | How is climate change inﬂuencing coastal erosion?

Coastal erosion is inﬂuenced by many factors: sea level, currents, winds, and waves (especially during storms, which

add energy to these effects). Erosion of river deltas is also inﬂuenced by precipitation patterns inland which change

patterns of freshwater input, runoff, and sediment delivery from upstream. All of these components of coastal

erosion are impacted by climate change.

Based on the simplest model, a rise in mean sea level usually causes the shoreline to recede inland due to coastal

erosion. Increasing wave heights can cause coastal sand bars to move away from the shore and out to sea. High

storm surges (sea levels raised by storm winds and atmospheric pressure) also tend to move coastal sand offshore.

Higher waves and surges increase the probability that coastal sand barriers and dunes will be over-washed or

breached. More energetic and/or frequent storms exacerbate all these effects.

Changes in wave direction caused by shifting climate may produce movement of sand and sediment to different

places on the shore, changing subsequent patterns of erosion.

377

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

onfidence). Warming reduced predator-free space on rocky shores,

leading to a decrease of the vertical extent of mussel beds by 51% in

52 years in the Salish Sea, and to the disappearance of reproductive

populations of mussels (Harley, 2011). Unusually high air or water

temperature led to mass mortalities, for example, of mussels on the

California coast (Harley, 2008) and gorgonians in the northwestern

Mediterranean (Garrabou et al., 2009).

Rocky shores are one of the few ecosystems for which field evidence

of the effects of ocean acidification is available. Observational and

modeling analysis have shown that the community structure of a site

of the northeast Pacific shifted from a mussel to an algal-barnacle

dominated community between 2000 and 2008 (Wootton et al., 2008),

in relation with rapidly declining pH (Wootton and Pfister, 2012).

5.4.2.2.2. Projected impacts

Modeled relationships suggest that soft-rock recession rates depends

on the relative change in sea level rise while cliff retreat depends both

on total elevation change of sea level and on the rate of sea level rise

(Ashton et al., 2011). In a modeling study, Trenhaile (2010) found sea

level rise to trigger faster rates of cliff recession, especially in coasts

that are already retreating fast. In addition, based on modeling cliff

dynamics with contemporary and historic data of soft cliff retreat along

Suffolk Coast, UK, rapid retreat is associated with accelerating sea level

rise (Brooks and Spencer, 2013). However, coasts currently retreating

slowly would experience the largest proportional increase in retreat

rates. Increases in storminess have smaller effects on rocky shores

(Dawson et al., 2009; Trenhaile, 2011).

Few projections of the effect of climate change on rocky shores have

considered the effects of direct and indirect species interactions

(Poloczanska et al., 2008; Harley, 2011) and the effects of multiple

drivers (Helmuth et al., 2006). The abundance and distribution of rocky

shore species will continue to change in a warming world (high

confidence). For example, the long-term consequences of ocean

warming on mussel beds of the northeast Pacific are both positive

(increased growth) and negative (increased susceptibility to stress and

of exposure to predation) (Smith et al., 2006; Menge et al., 2008;

medium confidence). Extrapolations of ecosystem change based on

temperature-focused studies alone are likely to be conservative, as

hypoxia (Grantham et al., 2004) or ocean acidification (Feely et al., 2008)

are also known to occur in this region.

Observations performed near natural CO

vents in the Mediterranean

Sea show that diversity, biomass, and trophic complexity of rocky shore

communities will decrease at future pH levels (Barry et al., 2011; Kroeker

et al., 2011; high confidence). An abundant food supply appears to

enable mussels of the Baltic Sea to tolerate low pH (Thomsen et al., 2010,

2013) at the cost of increased energy expenditure. Model projections

that include the interactive effects of ocean warming and acidification

suggest that a population of barnacle of the English Channel will

become extinct 10 years earlier than it would with warming alone

(Findlay et al., 2010; medium confidence). Ocean acidification may also

exacerbate mass mortality events in the Mediterranean Sea (Rodolfo-

Metalpa et al., 2011; limited evidence, medium agreement).

n summary, rocky shores are among the better-understood coastal

ecosystems in terms of potential impacts of climate variability and

change. The most prominent effects are range shifts of species in

response to ocean warming (high confidence) and changes in species

distribution and abundance (high confidence) mostly in relation to

ocean warming and acidification.

5.4.2.3. Wetlands and Seagrass Beds

Vegetated coastal habitats and coastal wetlands (mangrove forests, salt

marshes, seagrass meadows, and macroalgal beds) extend from the

intertidal to the subtidal areas in coastal areas, where they form key

ecosystems.

5.4.2.3.1. Observed impacts

Vegetated coastal habitats are declining globally (Duarte et al., 2005),

rendering shorelines more vulnerable to erosion due to increased sea

level rise and increased wave action (e.g., Alongi, 2008) and leading to

the loss of carbon stored in sediments. Together, the loss of coastal wet-

lands and seagrass meadows results in the release of 0.04 to 0.28 PgC

annually from organic deposits (Pendleton et al., 2012). Recognition of

the important consequences of the losses of these habitats for coastal

protection and carbon burial (Duarte et al., 2013a) has led to large-scale

reforestation efforts in some nations (e.g., Thailand, India, Vietnam).

The response of saltmarshes to sea level rise involves landward migration

of salt-marsh vegetation zones, submergence at lower elevations, and

drowning of interior marshes. Ocean warming is leading to range shifts

in vegetated coastal habitats. The poleward limit of mangrove forests

is generally set by the 20ºC mean winter isotherm (Duke et al., 1998).

Accordingly, migration of the isotherm with climate change (Burrows et

al., 2011) should lead to a poleward expansion of mangrove forests, as

observed in the Gulf of Mexico (Perry and Mendelssohn, 2009; Comeaux

et al., 2011; Raabe et al., 2012) and New Zealand (Stokes et al., 2010),

leading to increased sediment accretion (medium confidence).

Seagrass meadows are already under stress due to climate change (high

confidence), particularly where maximum temperatures already approach

their physiological limit. Heat waves lead to widespread seagrass

mortality, as documented for Zostera species in the Atlantic (Reusch et

al., 2005) and Posidonia meadows in the Mediterranean Sea (Marbà

and Duarte, 2010) and Australia (Rasheed and Unsworth, 2011; high

confidence). Warming also favors flowering of P. oceanica (Diaz-Almela

et al., 2007), but the increased recruitment rate is insufficient to

compensate for the losses resulting from elevated temperatures (Diaz-

Almela et al., 2009).

Kelp forests have been reported to decline in temperate areas in both

hemispheres (Fernández, 2011; Johnson et al., 2011; Wernberg et al.,

2011a,b), a loss involving climate change (high confidence). Decline in

kelp populations attributed to ocean warming has been reported in

southern Australia (Johnson et al., 2011; Wernberg et al., 2011a,b) and

the North Coast of Spain (Fernández, 2011). The spread of subtropical

invasive macroalgal species may be facilitated by climate change,

378

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

dding to the stresses experienced by temperate seagrass meadows

due to ocean warming (medium evidence, high agreement).

5.4.2.3.2. Projected impacts

Ocean acidification (Section 5.3.3.5; Box CC-OA) is expected to enhance

the production of seagrass, macroalgae, salt-marsh plants, and mangrove

trees through the fertilization effect of CO

(Hemminga and Duarte,

2000; Wu et al., 2008; McKee et al., 2012; high confidence). Increased

concentrations may have already increased seagrass photosynthetic

rates by 20% (Hemminga and Duarte, 2000; Hendriks et al., 2010; limited

evidence, high agreement).

Coupling of downscaled model projections using the SRES A1B scenario

in the western Mediterranean with relationships between mortality rates

and maximum seawater temperature led Jordá et al. (2012) to conclude

that seagrass meadows may become functionally extinct by 2050–2060

(high confidence). Poleward range shifts in vegetated coastal habitats

are expected to continue with climate change (high confidence).

Although elevated CO

and ocean acidification are expected to increase

productivity of vegetated coastal habitats in the future, there is limited

evidence that elevated CO

will increase seagrass survival or resistance

to warming (Alexandre et al., 2012; Jordá et al., 2012).

Coastal wetlands and seagrass meadows experience coastal squeeze in

urbanized coastlines, with no opportunity to migrate inland with rising

sea levels. However, increased CO

and warming can stimulate marsh

elevation gain, counterbalancing moderate increases in sea level rise

rates (Langley et al., 2009; Kirwan and Mudd, 2012). Climate change is

expected to increase carbon burial rates on salt marshes during the first

half of the 21st century, provided sufficient sediment supply, with

carbon-climate feedbacks diminishing over time (Kirwan and Mudd,

2012; medium confidence).

In summary, climate change will contribute to the continued decline in

the extent of seagrasses and kelps in the temperate zone (medium

confidence) and the range of seagrasses, mangroves, and kelp in the

Northern Hemisphere will expand poleward (high confidence). The

limited positive impact of warming and increased CO

on vegetated

ecosystems will be insufficient to compensate the decline of their extent

resulting from other human drivers such as land use change (very high

confidence).

5.4.2.4. Coral Reefs

Coral reefs are shallow-water ecosystems made of calcium carbonate

secreted by reef-building corals and algae. They are among the most

diverse ecosystems and provide key services to humans (Box CC-CR).

5.4.2.4.1. Observed impacts

Mass coral bleaching coincided with positive temperature anomalies

over the past 30 years, sometimes followed by mass mortality (Kleypas

t al., 2008; very high confidence). More than 80% of corals bleached

during the 2005 event in the Caribbean and more than 40% died (Eakin

et al., 2010). Bleaching events and their recovery are variable in time

and space: 7% of the reef locations exhibited at least one bleaching

between 1985 and 1994 compared to 38% in the 1995–2004 period,

most of which occurred during the 1997–98 El Niño event (Figure 5-3).

Recovery from the 1998 global bleaching event was generally variable

in the Indian Ocean, absent in the western Atlantic, and no clear trends

elsewhere (Baker et al., 2008). Warming has caused a poleward range

expansion of some corals (Greenstein and Pandolfi, 2008; Yamano et

al., 2011; high confidence).

Persistence of coral reefs depends on the balance between the production

and erosion of calcium carbonate and on coral settlement, both of

which are affected by ocean acidification (Section 5.3.3.5; Box CC-OA).

Experimental data show that ocean acidification generally decreases

calcification (Andersson et al., 2011; Kroeker et al., 2013) and promotes

dissolution of calcium carbonate and bioerosion (Tribollet et al., 2009;

Wisshak et al., 2012), leading to poorly cemented reefs (Manzello et al.,

2008); it also negatively affects early life history stages, which could

reduce the number of larval settlers (Albright, 2011).

Coral cover and calcification have decreased in recent decades (e.g.,

Gardner et al., 2003; De’ath et al., 2009, 2012; Manzello, 2010; Box

CC-CR; very high confidence) but attribution to climate-related and

human-related drivers is difficult. Globally, the primary climate-related

driver appears to be ocean warming rather than ocean acidification,

cyclonic activity, and changes in freshwater input (Cooper et al., 2012;

De’ath et al., 2012; medium confidence). Sea level rise also controls reef

growth but, within the uncertainties of past sea level rise and coral reef

growth, most coral reefs seem to have kept pace with the recent sea

level rise (Buddemeier and Smith, 1988; Brown et al., 2011).

Mild to moderateNone Severe

100

1985–

1994

1995–

2004

2000–

2009

2010–

2019

2020–

2029

2030–

2039

2040–

2049

2050–

2059

2060–

2069

2070–

2079

2080–

2089

2090–

2099

(% of reef locations)

ProjectionsObservations

Figure 5-3 | Percent of reef locations (1° × 1° grid cells which have at least one reef)

that experience no bleaching, at least one mild bleaching event, or at least one severe

bleaching event for each decade. Observed bleaching events are summarized from the

ReefBase data set (Kleypas et al., 2008). In the observations, some of the “no

bleaching” cells may have experienced bleaching but it was either not observed or not

reported. Modeled bleaching events are averages of data from four ensemble runs of

the Community Climate System Model version 3 using the Special Report on Emissions

Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario and the standard degree heating month formula

(Teneva et al., 2011). The labels of values ≤1% are not shown.

379

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

5.4.2.4.2. Projected impacts

Coral bleaching and mortality will increase in frequency and magnitude

over the next decades (very high confidence). Under the A1B CO

emission

scenario, 99% of the reef locations will experience at least one severe

bleaching event between 2090 and 2099 (Figure 5-3), with limited

evidence and low agreement that coral acclimation and/or adaptation

will limit this trend (Logan et al., 2014). The onset of annual bleaching

event under RCP8.5 is delayed by more than 2 decades in about 23%

of reef locations compared to RCP6.0 (van Hooidonk et al., 2013).

Ocean warming and acidification have synergistic effects in several reef-

builders (Reynaud et al., 2003; Anthony et al., 2008). They will increase

coral mortality, reduce calcification and the strength of calcified organisms,

and enhance skeletal dissolution (Manzello et al., 2008; high confidence).

Reefs will transition from a condition of net accretion to one of net

erosion (Andersson and Gledhill, 2013; high confidence) and will be

more susceptible to breakage. The onset of global dissolution is at an

atmospheric CO

of 560 ppm (Silverman et al., 2009; medium confidence)

and dissolution will be widespread in 2100 (RCP8.5 emission scenario,

Dove et al., 2013; medium confidence). The observed poleward range

extension will be limited by ocean acidification (Yara et al., 2012; Couce

et al., 2013) and may be followed by equatorial range retractions

(Kiessling et al., 2012).

The maximum rate of vertical accretion has been variable regionally during

the last deglaciation (about 20 mm yr

–1

; Dullo, 2005; Montaggioni, 2005)

and has not enabled all coral reefs to keep up with sea level rise. Some

reefs kept up, even when the eustatic sea level rise exceeded 40 mm yr

–1

(Camoin et al., 2012). A number of coral reefs could therefore keep up

with the maximum rate of sea level rise of 15.1 mm yr

–1

projected for

the end of the century (WGI AR5 Table 13.5; medium confidence) but a

lower net accretion than during the Holocene (Perry et al., 2013) and

increased turbidity (Storlazzi et al., 2011) will weaken this capability

(very high confidence).

In summary, ocean warming is the primary cause of mass coral

bleaching and mortality (very high confidence), which, together with

ocean acidification, deteriorates the balance between coral reef

construction and erosion (high confidence). The magnitude of these

effects depends on future rates of warming and acidification (very high

confidence), with a limited moderating role owing to biological acclimation

and adaptation (medium confidence).

5.4.2.5. Coastal Aquifers

Coastal aquifers are of strategic importance for the water supply of

highly populated coastal areas, especially in small islands (Section 29.3).

5.4.2.5.1. Observed impacts

Temperature and evaporation rise, precipitation changes, and extended

droughts affecting aquifer recharge can contribute to saltwater intrusion

(Section 3.2.4). Rising sea levels and overwash from waves or storm

surge are also relevant, especially in low-lying areas and islands

(

Terry and Falkland, 2010; White and Falkland, 2010; see also Section

29.3).

Aquifers on the coasts of the USA have experienced increased levels of

salinity largely due to excessive water extraction (Barlow and Reichard,

2010). Natural drivers combined with over-extraction, pollution, mining,

and erosion compound groundwater supply problems in small islands

in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans (White et al., 2007; White and

Falkland, 2010). This increased usage of groundwater resources globally

has, over the last century, led to a reduction in groundwater quality,

including increased salinization (very high confidence).

Attribution of saline intrusion to incremental sea level rise is still not

sufficiently supported (Rozell and Wong, 2010; White and Falkland

2010). In small islands, observed saltwater intrusion due to flooding

and overwash under storm events cannot be attributed to climate

change (Section 29.3.2; limited evidence, high agreement).

5.4.2.5.2. Projected impacts

Available information on projected impacts on coastal aquifers is limited

(Section 3.4.6). Rozell and Wong (2010) assessed the impact of rising

sea levels on fresh water resources on Shelter Island (USA) for two

different combinations of precipitation change and sea level rise.

Projected impacts were highly dependent on local conditions. Ferguson

and Gleeson (2012) concluded that the direct impact of groundwater

extraction in the USA has been and will be much more significant than

the impact of a 0.59 m sea level rise by the end of the 21st century under

a wide range of hydrogeological conditions and population densities.

Saltwater intrusion is generally a very slow process; as a consequence,

reaching equilibrium may take several centuries limiting the reversibility

of the process in the near term (Webb and Howard, 2011).

Human-induced pressure will continue to be the main driver for aquifer

salinization during the next century (high confidence). Changing

precipitation, increased storminess, and sea level rise will exacerbate

these problems (limited evidence, high agreement).

5.4.2.6. Estuaries and Lagoons

Coastal lagoons are shallow water bodies separated from the ocean by

a barrier and connected at least intermittently to the ocean, while

estuaries, where fresh and saltwater mix, are the primary conduit for

nutrients, particulates, and organisms from land to the sea.

5.4.2.6.1. Observed impacts

Sediment accumulation in estuaries is high, heterogeneous, and habitat-

specific and directly affected by human drivers, such as dredging and

canalization, and indirectly via habitat loss, changes in sea level, storminess,

and freshwater and sediment supply by rivers (Syvitski et al., 2005;

Swanson and Wilson, 2008). Coastal lagoons are also susceptible to

alterations of sediment input and erosional processes driven by changes

380

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

n sea level, precipitation, and storminess (Pickey and Young, 2009).

Droughts, floods, and sea level rise impact estuarine circulation, tidal

characteristics, suspended matter, and hence turbidity with consequences

for biological communities, particularly in microtidal systems. Climate

change and habitat modification (e.g., dams and obstructions) impact

fish species such as salmon and eels that pass through estuaries (Lassalle

and Rochard, 2009).

Enhanced nutrient delivery (Section 5.3.4.3) has resulted in major

changes in biogeochemical processes, community structure, metabolic

balance, and CO

exchange (Howarth et al., 2011; Canuel et al., 2012;

Statham, 2012), including enhanced primary production which has

affected coastal fishery yield (Nixon, 1982; Savage et al., 2012).

Eutrophication has modified the food-web structure (high confidence)

and led to more intense and long lasting hypoxia (Section 5.3.4.4), more

frequent occurrence of harmful algal blooms (Breitburg et al., 2009;

Howarth et al., 2011; medium confidence), and to enhanced emission of

nitrous oxide (de Bie et al., 2002; Kroeze et al., 2010; high confidence).

In summary, there is very high confidence that humans have impacted

lagoons and estuaries.

5.4.2.6.2. Projected impacts

The increase of atmospheric CO

levels will reduce the efflux of CO

from estuaries (Borges, 2005; Chen and Borges, 2009; high confidence).

Its impact on the pH of estuarine and lagoon waters will generally be

limited because other drivers are usually more important (Section

5.3.3.4 and Box CC-OA; high confidence). For example, freshwater flow

in the Scheldt estuary was the main factor controlling pH, directly via a

decreased supply of dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity, and,

indirectly, via decreased input ammonia loadings and lower rates of

nitrification (Hofmann et al., 2009).

Changes in sea level and hydrology could affect lagoons and estuaries

in multiple ways. Sea level rise will impact sediment redistribution, the

partitioning of habitats within estuaries, salinity, tidal range, and

submergence periods (Anthony et al., 2009; high confidence). Lagoons

may shrink because landward migration is restricted due to human

occupation or extend due to the drowning of marshes (Anthony et al.,

2009; Pilkey and Young, 2009; Stutz and Pilkey, 2011). Salinity, primary

production, biodiversity, fisheries, and aquaculture may be impacted by

changes in water discharge, withdrawals and precipitation-evaporation

balance (Webster and Harris, 2004; Smith et al., 2005; Anthony et al.,

2009; Canu et al., 2010). Altered riverine discharge and warming may

lead to enhanced thermal and/or salinity stratification of estuaries and

lagoons. This has consequences for biogeochemical processes, organism

distribution patterns, and frequency and duration of hypoxia (Diaz and

Rosenberg, 2008; Rabalais et al., 2009; Hong and Shen, 2012; medium

confidence). Stronger winds and droughts may reduce the extent, duration,

and frequency of estuarine stratification, counteracting the decrease in

oxygen concentration (Rabalais et al., 2009; medium confidence).

Changes in storm events may also alter the sediment deposition-erosion

balance of lagoons and estuaries (Pilkey and Young, 2009), the structure

and functioning of biological communities via the transport of communities

nd/or of their resources, and the underwater light climate (Wetz and Paerl,

2008; Canuel et al., 2012; medium confidence). Changes in precipitation

extremes and freshwater supply may induce fluctuations in salinity with

the associated adverse impacts on biodiversity, benthic macrofauna,

and ecosystem functions (Jeppesen et al., 2007; Fujii and Raffaelli, 2008;

Levinton et al., 2011; Pollack et al., 2011). Warming may directly affect

most biological processes and the trophic status of coastal ecosystems,

and higher carbon dioxide emission (Canuel et al., 2012; limited evidence,

medium agreement). Warming may lengthen the duration of phytoplankton

production season (Cloern and Jassby, 2008; medium confidence).

Any change in the primary production of lagoons might impact fisheries,

as primary production and fisheries yield are correlated (Nixon, 1982;

limited evidence, medium agreement). For example, seawater warming

and changes in seasonal patterns of precipitations projected in the Venice

lagoon, using the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100,

may lead to a reduction in plankton production, with a decline of habitat

suitability for clam growth and aquaculture (Canu et al., 2010).

Finally, projected changes in climate-related drivers such as warming,

storms, sea level, and runoff will interact with non-climate human drivers

(e.g., eutrophication, damming) and will have consequences for ecosystem

functioning and services of lagoons and estuaries (high confidence).

In summary, the primary drivers of change in lagoons and estuaries are

human-related rather than climate-related drivers (very high confidence).

Future changes in climate-related drivers such as warming, acidification,

waves, storms, sea level, and runoff will have consequences on the

functions and services of ecosystems in lagoons and estuaries (high

confidence) but the impacts cannot be assessed at the global scale as

the key drivers operate at a local to regional scale.

5.4.2.7. Deltas

Characterized by the interplay between rivers, lands, and oceans and

influenced by a combination of river, tidal, and wave processes, deltas

are coastal complexes that combine natural systems in diverse habitats

(e.g., tidal flats, salt marshes, mangroves, beaches, estuaries, low-lying

wetlands) and human systems (e.g., houses, agriculture, aquaculture,

industry, and transport). They are low-lying coastal landforms formed by

riverine sediments in the areas around river mouths, mostly during the

last 6000–8000 years of relatively stable sea level and have a population

density more than 10 times the world average (Ericson et al., 2006;

Foufoula-Georgiou et al., 2011). As low-lying plains, deltas are highly

sensitive to changes in sea level. They are subject to climatic impacts

from rivers upstream (e.g., freshwater input) and oceans downstream

(e.g., sea level changes, waves) as well as within the deltas themselves.

At the same time, they are affected by human activities such as land use

changes, dam construction, irrigation, mining, extraction of subsurface

resources, and urbanization (Nicholls et al., 2007).

5.4.2.7.1. Observed impacts

The combined impact of sediment reduction, RSLR, and land use changes

in delta and river management on channels and banks has led to the

381

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

idespread degradation of deltas (very high confidence). The changes of

sediment delivery from rivers due to dams, irrigation, and embankments/

dikes create an imbalance in sediment budget in the coastal zones.

Degradation of beaches, mangroves, tidal flats, and subaqueous delta

fronts along deltaic coasts has been reported in many deltas (e.g., Nile

and Ebro; Sanchez-Arcilla et al., 1998; Po, Simeoni and Corbau, 2009;

Krishna-Godavari, Nageswara Rao et al., 2010; Changjiang, Yang et al.,

2011; Huanghe, Chu et al., 1996; very high confidence). Deltaic coasts

naturally evolve by seaward migration of the shoreline, forming a delta

plain. However, decreasing sediment discharge during the last 50 years

has decreased the growth of deltaic land, even reversing it in some

locations (e.g., Nile, Godavari, Huanghe). Artificial reinforcement of natural

levees also has reduced the inter-distributory basin sedimentation in

most deltas, resulting in wetland loss.

The major impacts of sea level rise are changes in coastal wetlands,

increased coastal flooding, increased coastal erosion, and saltwater

intrusion into estuaries and deltas (Mcleod et al., 2010), which are

exacerbated by increased human-induced drivers (very high confidence).

Ground subsidence amplifies these hazards in farms and cities on deltaic

plains through RSLR (Day and Giosan, 2008; Mazzotti et al., 2009). RSLR

due to subsidence has induced wetland loss and shoreline retreat (e.g.,

the Mississippi delta; Morton et al., 2005; Chao Phraya delta, Saito et al.,

2007; high confidence). Episodic events superimpose their effects on

these underlying impacts and accelerate land loss (high confidence) (e.g.,

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005; Barras et al., 2008). To forestall

submergence and frequent flooding, many delta cities now depend on

a substantial infrastructure for flood defense and water management

(Nicholls et al., 2010).

Deltas are impacted by river floods and oceanic storm surges (very high

confidence). Tropical cyclones are noteworthy for their damages to deltas,

for example, the Mississippi delta by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (Barras

et al., 2008), the Irrawaddy delta by Cyclone Nargis in 2008, and the

Ganges-Brahmaputra delta by Cyclone Gorky in 1991 and Cyclone Sidr

in 2007 (Murray et al., 2012; see also Box CC-TC). A detailed study of

33 deltas around the world found that 85% of them had experienced

severe flooding in the past decade, causing the temporary submergence

of 260,000 km

(Syvitski et al., 2009).

5.4.2.7.2. Projected impacts

The projected natural impacts on deltas under changing global climate

are caused mainly by extreme precipitation-induced floods and sea level

rise. These will result in increased coastal flooding, decreased wetland

areas, increased coastal erosion, and increased salinization of cultivated

land and groundwater (McLeod et al., 2010; Day et al., 2011; Box CC-TC;

high confidence). The surface area of flooding in 33 deltas around the

world is estimated to increase by 50% under sea level rise estimations

as projected for 2100 by the IPCC AR4 (Syvitski et al., 2009). Non-

climatic drivers (e.g., reduction in sediment delivery, subsidence, and land

use changes) rather than climatic drivers have affected deltas for the last

50 years (Syvitski, 2008; very high confidence). Densely populated deltas

are particularly vulnerable owing to further population growth together

with the above-described impacts. The impacts beyond 2100 show a more

complex and enhanced flood risk on deltas (e.g., Katsman et al., 2011).

n summary, increased human drivers have been primary causes in

changes of deltas (e.g., land use, subsidence, coastal erosion) for at

least the last 50 years (very high confidence). There is high agreement

that future sea level rise will exacerbate the problems of increased

anthropogenic degradation in deltas.

.4.3. Human Systems

5.4.3.1. Human Settlements

Important direct effects of climate change on coastal settlements include

dry-land loss due to erosion and submergence, damage of extreme

events (such as wind storms, storm surges, floods, heat extremes, and

droughts) on built environments, effects on health (food- and water-borne

disease), effects on energy use, effects on water availability and resources,

and loss of cultural heritage (Hunt and Watkiss, 2010). Since AR4, a large

number of regional, national, and subnational scale studies on coastal

impacts have been conducted. These are covered in the respective

regional chapters. At the global scale, studies have focused either on

exposure to sea level rise or extreme water levels or on the physical

impacts of flooding, submergence, and erosion.

5.4.3.1.1. Projected exposure

Coastal flood risks are strongly influenced by the growing exposure of

population and assets. The population exposed to the 1-in-100-year

coastal flood is projected to increase from about 270 million in 2010 to

350 million in 2050 due to socioeconomic development only (UN

medium fertility projections) (Jongman et al., 2012). Population growth,

economic growth, and urbanization will be the most important drivers

of increased exposure in densely populated areas (Hanson et al., 2011;

Seto, 2011; see also Chapter 14; high confidence). For 136 port cities

above 1 million inhabitants, the number of people exposed to a 1-in-100-

year extreme sea level is expected to increase from 39 million in 2005 to

59 million by 2070 through 0.5 m GMSLR alone and to 148 million if

socioeconomic development (UN medium population projections) is

considered (Hanson et al., 2011). Human-induced subsidence alone is

expected to increase the global economic exposure of 136 major port

cities by around 14% from 2005 to 2070 although this driver only applies

to 36 of the cities (Hanson et al., 2011). As a result of socioeconomic

development Asia is expected to continue to have the largest exposed

population and sub-Saharan Africa the largest increases in exposure

(Dasgupta et al., 2009; Vafeidis et al., 2011; Jongman et al., 2012).

5.4.3.1.2. Projected impacts and risks

Exposure estimates, however, give an incomplete picture of coastal risks

to human settlements because they do not consider existing or future

adaptation measures that protect the exposed population and assets

against coastal hazards (Hallegatte et al., 2013; Hinkel et al., 2013).

Although the global potential impacts of coastal flood damage and land

loss on human settlements in the 21st century are substantial, these

impacts can be reduced considerably through coastal protection (limited

evidence, high agreement). Nicholls et al. (2011) estimate that without

382

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

protection 72 to 187 million people would be displaced due to land loss

due to submergence and erosion by 2100 assuming GMSLRs of 0.5 to

2.0 m by 2100. Upgrading coastal defenses and nourishing beaches

would reduce these impacts roughly by three orders of magnitude.

Hinkel et al. (2013) estimate the number of people flooded annually in

2100 to reach 117 to 262 million per year in 2100 without upgrading

protection and two orders of magnitude smaller with dike (levee) upgrades,

given GMSLRs of 0.6 to 1.3 m by 2100. The major driver of increasing

risks to human settlements in the next decades is socioeconomic

development. When upgrading flood defenses to maintain a constant

probability of flooding, average annual losses (AALs) in the 136 largest

coastal cities are expected to increase ninefold from 2005 to 2050 due

to socioeconomic development, only another 12% due to subsidence,

and 2 to 8% due to GMSLRs of 0.2 to 0.4 m (Hallegate et al., 2013;

Figure 5-4).

Despite the delayed response of sea level rise to global warming levels

(WGI AR5 Section 13.5.4) mitigation may limit 21st century impacts of

increased coastal flood damage, dry-land loss, and wetland loss

substantially (limited evidence, medium agreement) albeit numbers are

difficult to compare owing to differences in scenarios, baselines, and

adaptation assumptions. Tol (2007) finds that stabilizing CO

concentration

at 550 ppm reduces global impacts on wetlands and dry lands by about

10% in 2100 compared to a scenario of unmitigated emissions. Hinkel

et al. (2013) report that stabilizing emissions at 450 ppm CO

-eq reduces

the average number of people flooded in 2100 by about 30% compared

to a baseline where emissions increase to about 25 Gt C-eq in 2100.

Arnell et al. (2013) find that an emissions pathway peaking in 2016 and

declining at 5% per year thereafter reduces flood risk by 58 to 66%

compared to an unmitigated A1B scenario. All three studies only

consider the effects of mitigation during the 21st century and assume

low or no contribution of ice sheets to GMSLR. Mitigation is expected

to be more effective when considering impacts beyond 2100 and higher

contributions of ice sheets (Section 5.5.8).

Global studies confirm AR4 findings that there are substantial regional

differences in coastal vulnerability and expected impacts (high confidence).

Most countries in South, Southeast, and East Asia are particularly

vulnerable to sea level rise due to rapid economic growth and coastward

migration of people into urban coastal areas together with high rates

of anthropogenic subsidence in deltas where many of the densely

populated areas are located (Nicholls and Cazenave, 2010). At the same

time, economic growth in these countries increases the monetary

capacity to adapt (Nicholls et al., 2010). In contrast, although many

African countries experience a similar trend in rapid urban coastal growth,

the level of economic development is generally lower and consequently

the monetary capacity to adapt is smaller (Kebede and Nicholls, 2012;

Hinkel et al., 2013).

In summary, while there is high agreement on some general findings,

only a small fraction of the underlying uncertainty has been explored,

which means evidence is limited. Gaps remain with respect to impacts

of possible large contributions of the ice sheets of Greenland and

Antarctica to GMSLR (WGI AR5 Sections 13.4.3, 13.4.4), regional patterns

of climate-induced sea level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic change

and migration. Many studies rely on few or only a single socioeconomic

scenario. Few studies consider adaptation and those that do generally

ignore the wider range of adaptation measures beyond hard protection

> 100% > 50% > 40%

16. Fuzhou

13. Shanghai

4. Sapporo

9. Jakarta

17. Ningbo

6. Beirut

15. Tel Aviv

3. Napoli

11. Marseille

5. Santo Domingo

2. Barranquilla

18. Havana

7. Houston

19. Port-au-Prince

10. Izmir

8. Istanbul

12. Athens

1. Alexandria

14. Benghazi

20. Algiers

Increase in average annual losses (AAL)

Figure 5-4 | The 20 coastal cities where average annual losses (AALs) increase most (in relative terms in 2050 compared with 2005) in the case of optimistic sea level rise, if

adaptation maintains only current defense standards or ﬂood probability (PD) (Hallegatte et al., 2013).

383

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

ptions. Integrated studies considering the interactions between a wide

range of RSLR impacts (Table 5-3) as well as trade-offs between diverse

adaptation options are missing.

5.4.3.2. Industry, Infrastructure, Transport,

and Network Industries

Coastal industries, their supporting infrastructure including transport

(ports, roads, rail, airports), power and water supply, storm water, and

sewerage are highly sensitive to a range of extreme weather and climate

events including temporary and permanent flooding arising from

extreme precipitation, high winds, storm surges, and sea level rise

(Horton et al. 2010; Handmer et al. 2012; Hanson and Nicholls, 2012; Aerts

et al. 2013; high confidence). Most industrial facilities, infrastructure, and

networks are designed for service lives extending over several decades.

In fact, many bridges, ports, and road and railway lines remain in their

original design location for centuries even if the infrastructure on them

has been rehabilitated or replaced several times. Certain facilities, such

as new nuclear power plants, are designed to last even well beyond the

22nd century (Wilby et al., 2011).

As the need to locate most of these industries and networks in coastal

areas will remain and probably increase due to coastal development

(Section 5.4.3.1), considering climate variability and climate change

drivers in life cycle assessment of industry, infrastructure, and transport

and network industries is of utmost importance (high confidence).

5.4.3.2.1. Observed impacts

Climate impacts on coastal industries and infrastructures vary considerably

depending on geographical location, associated weather and climate,

and specific composition of industries within particular coastal regions

(high confidence).

Over the last 10 years an extensive number of climate-related extreme

events (Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012) illustrate the potential for impacts

on coastal industry, infrastructure, transport, and network industry.

Severe storms with associated winds, waves, rain, lightning, and storm

surges have been particularly disruptive to transport and power and

water supplies (Jacob et al., 2007; USCCSP, 2008; Horton et al., 2010;

high confidence). In such network configurations, flooding of even the

smallest component of an intermodal system can result in a much larger

system disruption. Even though a transportation terminal may not be

affected, the access roads to it could be, thus forcing the terminal to

cease or reduce operation. Disruption to port activities in one location

can disrupt supply chains, which can have far reaching consequences

(Becker et al. 2012, 2013). Existing experience has also shown that

impacts of hurricanes and flooding on underground infrastructure can

have long-term effects (Chisolm and Matthews, 2012).

Hurricanes like Katrina (2005) caused US$100 million of damage to

Mississippi’s ports and Sandy (2012) led to a week-long shut-down of the

Port of New York, generating economic damages reaching US$50 billion

(Becker et al., 2012). These have shown the critical need to better prepare

coastal human settlements and associated network infrastructures and

ndustries for future extreme weather impacts and climate change

(Aerts et al., 2013; high confidence).

5.4.3.2.2. Projected impacts

Although there is robust evidence of the impacts and consequences of

extreme events on coastal infrastructure and industrial facilities, there

are limited assessments on projected impacts of long-term changes

(high agreement). Besides, while there is an important amount of non-

journal literature on projected impacts of sea level rise and increasing

flooding levels on certain coastal infrastructures (USCCSP, 2008; USACE,

2011; McEvoy and Mullet, 2013), limited peer review information is

available.

Vulnerability to flooding of railroads, tunnels, ports, roads, and industrial

facilities at low-lying areas will be exacerbated by rising sea levels or

more frequent or intense storms, causing more frequent and more

serious disruption of services and damages under extreme sea levels

unless adaptation is enforced (Esteban et al., 2010, 2012; Wilby et al.,

2011; Aerts et al., 2013; high confidence).

Furthermore, sea level rise will reduce extreme flood return periods and

therefore increase the need for adaptation of infrastructure such as

airports, tunnels, coastal protections, and ship terminals to extreme sea

level impacts (Jacob et al., 2007; Becker et al., 2013).

It is estimated that a hypothetical 1 m RSLR projected for the Gulf Coast

region between Alabama and Houston over the next 50 to 100 years

would permanently flood a third of the region’s roads as well as putting

more than 70% of the region’s ports at risk (USCCSP, 2008).

The estimated costs of climate change to Alaska’s public infrastructure

could add US$3.6 to 6.1 billion (+10 to 20% above normal wear and

tear) from now to 2030 and US$5.6 to 7.6 billion (+10 to 12%) from

now to 2080 (Larsen et al., 2008). Higher costs of climate change for

coastal infrastructure are expected due to its proximity to the marine

environment. Other projected impacts are beneficial for the transportation

system. For example, decline of Arctic sea-ice coverage could extend

seasonal accessibility to high-latitude shipping routes such as the

northwest shipping route that connects the Atlantic to the North Pacific.

Hanson et al. (2011) presents a first estimate of the exposure of the

world’s large port cities to coastal flooding due to sea level rise and

storm surge in the 2070s. The analysis suggests that the total value of

assets exposed in 2005 across all cities considered is estimated to be

US$3000 billion, corresponding to around 5% of global GDP in 2005. By

the 2070s, and assuming a homogeneous global sea level rise of 0.5 m,

increased extreme water levels up to 10%, and a fixed subsidence rate

in susceptible cities with respect to today’s values, asset exposure is

estimated to increase to approximately 9% of projected global GDP in

this period.

Coastal infrastructural instability may result from natural hazards

triggered by groundwater-level (GWL) variations resulting from rising

sea level. For earthquake-prone coasts, this could be exacerbated by

earthquake liquefaction if GWL increases with sea level rise (Yasuhara

384

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

t al., 2007). Increasing sea levels, surges, and waves can also lead to

a stability loss of coastal structures (Headland et al., 2011).

Other impacts may arise in coastal industries in high latitudes affected

by permafrost thaw causing ground instability and erosion, thereby

affecting transport safety and the industries that rely on such travel in

these regions (e.g., Pearce et al., 2010).

5.4.3.3. Fisheries, Aquaculture, and Agriculture

Fisheries and aquaculture and the associated post-harvest activities

globally create millions of jobs (Daw et al., 2009; Sumaila et al., 2011)

and contribute significantly to the dietary animal protein of millions of

people and to the world merchandise trade (FAO, 2010, 2012; see also

Section 6.4.1.1). In addition to small-scale fisheries and aquaculture,

which are important for the food security and economy of coastal

communities (Bell et al., 2009), coastal zones also support significant

agricultural activities, for example, rice production in the low-lying

deltaic regions of Asia (Wassmann et al., 2009).

5.4.3.3.1. Observed impacts

Climate variability and change impact both fishers’ livelihoods (Badjeck

et al., 2010) and fish production (Barange and Perry, 2009) (Section

6.5.3). In the North Sea, ocean warming over the 1977–2002 period led

to relatively increased distribution ranges of some fish species (Hiddink

and Hofstede, 2008), and demersal fish assemblage deepened in response

to climate change (Dulvy et al., 2008). In southeastern Australia, Last

et al. (2011) found an increasing abundance of 45 fish species of warm

temperate origin, which they linked to the observed strengthening of

the East Australian Current (EAC) bringing warm waters further south

(Ridgeway, 2007). A study (Sherman et al., 2009) of the impact of sea

surface temperature changes on the fisheries yields of 63 large marine

ecosystems over a 25-year period shows a positive relationship for the

northeast Atlantic large marine ecosystems, due to zooplankton biomass

increases (Section 6.5.3). Distributional effects are very important for

migratory pelagic fisheries, such as tuna (see Table 29-2). Impacts of

climate change on aquaculture (Mytilus edulis and Salmo salar) in the

UK and Ireland have been difficult to discern from natural environmental

variability (Callaway et al., 2012).

Seawater inundation has become a major problem for traditional

agriculture in Bangladesh (Rahman et al., 2009), and in low-lying island

nations (e.g., Lata and Nunn, 2012). The combination of rice yield

reduction induced by climate change and inundation of lands by seawater

causes an important reduction in production (Chen et al., 2012).

5.4.3.3.2. Projected impacts

Fisheries may be impacted either negatively or positively (Hare et al.,

2010; Meynecke and Lee, 2011; Cinner et al., 2012) depending on the

latitude, location, and climatic factors. Climate change can impact the

pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions,

and may lead to large-scale redistribution of global catch potential

epending on regions (Cheung et al., 2009, 2010). Narita et al. (2012)

estimated that the global economic costs of production loss of molluscs

due to ocean acidification (Section 5.3.3.5) by the year 2100 based on

IPCC IS92a business-as-usual scenario could be higher than US$100

billion. As a result of increased sea temperatures, the reduction in coral

cover in the Caribbean basin and its associated fisheries production is

expected to lead to a net revenue loss by 2015 (Trotman et al., 2009).

Economic losses in landed catch value and the costs of adapting fisheries

resulting from a 2°C global temperature increase by 2050 have been

estimated at US$10 to 31 billion globally (Sumaila et al., 2011). For

aquaculture, negative impacts of rising ocean temperatures will be felt

in the temperate regions whereas positive impacts will be felt in the

tropical and subtropical regions (De Silva and Soto, 2009). Changes to

the atmosphere-ocean in the Pacific Island countries are likely to affect

coral reef fisheries by a decrease of 20% by 2050 and coastal aquaculture

may be less efficient (Bell et al., 2013).

In summary, changes have occurred to the distribution of fish species

(medium confidence) with evidence of poleward expansion of temperate

species (limited evidence, high agreement). Tropical and subtropical

aquaculture has not been adversely affected by rising ocean temperatures

to date (limited evidence, high agreement). Coastal agriculture has

experienced negative impacts (medium confidence) due mainly to

increased frequency of submersion of agricultural land by saltwater

inundation (limited evidence, high agreement).

5.4.3.4. Coastal Tourism and Recreation

Coastal tourism is the largest component of the global tourism industry.

Over 60% of Europeans opt for beach holidays and beach tourism provides

more than 80% of U.S. tourism receipts (UNEP, 2009). More than 100

countries benefit from the recreational value provided by their coral reefs,

which contributed US$11.5 billion to global tourism (Burke et al., 2011).

5.4.3.4.1. Observed impacts

Observed significant impacts on coastal tourism have occurred from

direct impacts of extreme events on tourist infrastructure (e.g., beach

resorts, roads), indirect impacts of extreme events (e.g., coastal erosion,

coral bleaching), and short-term adverse tourist perception after the

occurrence of extreme events (e.g., flooding, tropical storms, storm

surges) (Phillips and Jones, 2006; Scott et al., 2008; IPCC, 2012, Section

4.3.5.3). Recent observed climate change impacts on the Great Barrier

Reef include coral bleaching in the summers of 1997–1998, 2001–2002,

and 2005–2006 and extreme events including floods and cyclones

(Tropical cyclones Larry in 2006, Hamish in 2009, and Yasi in 2011). The

stakeholders show a high level of concern for climate change, and

various resilience initiatives have been proposed and developed by the

Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (Biggs, 2011; GBRMPA, 2012).

5.4.3.4.1. Projected impacts

To provide some idea of climate change impacts on coastal destinations,

many studies have been carried out on projecting tourism demand, for

385

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

xample, in Europe (Perch-Nielson et al., 2010), in the Baltic region

(Haller et al., 2011), in the Mediterranean (Moreno and Amelung, 2009a),

and in 51 countries worldwide (Perch-Nielson, 2010). The studies provide

varying details, although it is difficult to draw overarching conclusions

on tourism demand for coastal destinations. With increased temperature

in mid-latitude countries and coupled with increased storms in tropical

areas, tourist flows could decrease from mid-latitude countries to tropical

coastal regions with large developing countries and small island nations

most affected (Perch-Nielson, 2010). The Mediterranean would likewise

be affected in summer (Moreno and Amelung, 2009a). In contrast, less

is known about the relationship between the impacts of climate change

and specific tourist behavior, activities, or flows to coastal destinations

(Moreno and Amelung, 2009b; see Section10.6.2). Usually tourists do

not consider climate variability or climate change in their holidays (Hares

et al., 2009) although there are a few studies that show the contrary

(Cambers, 2009; Alvarez-Diaz et al., 2010).

As for future impacts on coastal tourism, there is high confidence in the

impacts of extreme events and sea level rise aggravating coastal

erosion. A scenario of 1-m sea level rise by 2100 would be a potential

risk to Caribbean tourism (Scott et al., 2012). The presence of coastal

tourism infrastructure will continue to exacerbate beach reduction and

coastal ecosystems squeeze under rising sea levels, as exemplified in

Martinique (Schleupner, 2008). Carbonate reef structures would degrade

under a scenario of at least 2°C by 2050–2100 with serious consequences

for tourism destinations in Australia, the Caribbean, and other small

islands (Hoegh-Gulberg et al., 2007; see Box CC-CR).

The costs of future climate change impacts on coastal tourism are

enormous. For example, in the Caribbean community countries, rebuilding

costs of tourist resorts are estimated US$10 to 23.3 billion in 2050. A

hypothetical 1-m sea level rise would result in the loss or damage of

21 airports, inundation of land surrounding 35 ports, and at least 149

multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost from erosion to the

coastal beach areas (Simpson et al., 2010).

In summary, while coastal tourism can be related to climate change

impacts, it is more difficult to relate tourism demand directly to climate

change. Coastal tourism continues to be highly vulnerable to weather,

climate extremes, and rising sea levels with the additional sensitivity to

ocean temperature and acidity for the sectors that rely on reef tourism

(high confidence). Developing countries and small island states within

the tropics relying on coastal tourism are most vulnerable to present and

future weather and climate extremes, future sea level rise, and the added

impacts of coral bleaching and ocean acidification (high confidence).

5.4.3.5. Health

The relationship between health of coastal populations and climate

change include direct linkages (e.g., floods, droughts, storm surges, and

extreme temperatures) and indirect linkages (e.g., changes in the

transmission of vector-, food-, and water-borne infectious diseases and

increased salinization of coastal land that affects food production and

freshwater supply and ecosystem health). Coastal and particularly

informal settlements concentrate injury risk and death from storm

surges and rainfall flooding (Handmer et al., 2012). This section deals

ith human health in the context of the coastal zone, while Chapter 11

addresses general health issues and Section 6.4.2.3 deals with health

issues associated with ocean changes. Understanding the relationship

between climate and health is often confounded by socioeconomic

factors that influence coastal settlement patterns and the capacity of

authorities to respond to health-related issues (Baulcomb, 2011).

5.4.3.5.1. Observed impacts

Mortality risk in coastal areas is related to exposure and vulnerability

of coastal populations to climate hazards (e.g., Myung and Jang, 2011).

A regional analysis of changes in exposure, vulnerability, and risk indicates

that although exposure to flood and cyclone hazards has increased since

1980, the risk of mortality has generally fallen. The reductions reflect a

strengthening of the countries’ capacity to respond to disasters (Box

5-1). However, mortality is still rising in the countries with the weakest

risk governance capacities (UNISDR, 2011).

Coastal regions face a range of climate-sensitive diseases. Increased

saline intrusion is linked to increased hypertension disease (Vineis et

al., 2011), with greater occurrence in pregnant women living in coastal

regions compared to further inland (Khan et al., 2008). Increasing

temperature, humidity, and rainfall can increase vector-borne diseases

such as malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, and chikungunya (Pialoux et al.,

2007; Stratten et al., 2008; Kolivras, 2010; van Kleef et al., 2010) and

diarrhea, infectious gastrointestinal disease, rotovirus, and salmonella

(e.g., Hashizume et al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2007, 2010; Chou et al., 2010;

Onozuka et al., 2010). The parasitic disease schistosomiasis, endemic in

many tropical and small island coastal regions (Section 29.3.3.2), is also

sensitive to temperature increase (Mangal et al., 2008). Vibrio outbreaks

(e.g., cholera) are sensitive to rainfall and SST (e.g., Koelle et al., 2005),

and recent increased vibrio outbreaks in the Baltic have been linked

to heat waves and low salinity (Baker-Austin et al., 2013). Harmful

algal blooms (HABs) outbreaks (e.g., ciguatera) have been linked to SST

variability (e.g., Erdner et al., 2008; Jaykus et al., 2008). However, in

general there is limited evidence and low confidence in how global

climate change will impact HABs (Section 6.4.2.3), suggesting the need

for increased monitoring (Hallegraeff, 2010). Nontoxic blooms of high

biomass can reduce biodiversity through oxygen depletion and shading

(Erdner et al., 2008), with consequences for ecosystem and human

nutrition and health.

5.4.3.5.2. Projected impacts

Under future climate conditions, expansion of brackish and saline water

bodies in coastal areas under projected sea level rise may increase the

incidence of vector-borne diseases (Ramasamy and Surendran, 2011),

diarrhea, and hypertension (Vineis et al., 2011). Human responses to

climate change may also influence outcomes on health; however,

limited empirical climate-health data increases uncertainties on such

projections (Kolstad and Johansson, 2011).

Evidence continues to emerge of the relation between climate and

diseases that affect human health in the coastal zone including air and

water temperature, rainfall, humidity, and coastal salinity. However, the

386

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

elations are often complex and vary between diseases and even

regionally for the same disease. The interplay between climate and

human systems with regard to health impacts is poorly understood and

this continues to confound reliable projections of health impacts (robust

evidence, high agreement).

.4.4. Summary: Detection and Attribution

There is high confidence in the attribution to climate change of observed

coastal impacts that are sensitive to ocean temperature change, such

as coral bleaching and movements in species ranges. However, for many

other coastal changes, the impacts of climate change are difficult to

tease apart from human-related drivers (e.g., land use change, coastal

development, pollution). Figure 5-5 shows changes of major phenomena

observed in coastal systems and low-lying areas. Horizontal and vertical

axes indicate the degree of confidence in detection of trends for

phenomena, which are elements sensitive to climate change, and the

degree of confidence in attribution of phenomena to climate change,

respectively. Mainly phenomena with high to very high confidence in

trend detection are illustrated in this figure.

The increase of coral bleaching and the shift in distribution and range limits

of some species are attributed to climate change with high confidence.

Mass coral bleaching coincided with positive temperature anomalies

over the past 30 years. A poleward expansion of mangrove forests and

some corals, and shifts of range limits of many intertidal species, are

also attributed. Vegetated coastal habitats are declining globally. Coral

cover and calcification have decreased in recent decades. Elevated

temperatures along with ocean acidification reduce the calcification rate

of corals. Although the attribution of decreased calcification to either

climate- or human-related drivers is difficult, we have medium confidence

hat the primary climate-related driver is ocean warming globally.

Seagrass meadows are already under stress due to climate change,

particularly where maximum temperatures already approach their

physiological limit. However, the decline of the distribution of mangroves

and salt marshes is mainly linked with human activities, for example,

deforestation and reclamation. Therefore the degree of their attribution

to climate change is very low.

Globally beaches and shorelines have, in general, undergone net erosion

over the past century or longer. There is high confidence in detection of

increased beach erosion globally. However, attributing shoreline changes

to climate change is still difficult owing to the multiple natural and

human-related drivers contributing to coastal erosion (e.g., subsidence,

decreased sediment delivery, land use change). There is high confidence

that human pressures, for example, increased usage of surface water

and groundwater resources for agriculture and coastal settlements, and

river channel deepening, have led to increased saltwater intrusion and

low confidence

in attribution of saltwater intrusion to climate change.

The population living in coastal lowlands is increasing and more than

270 million people in 2010 are already exposed to flooding by the 1-

in-100-year coastal flood (Mimura, 2013). Population growth and land

subsidence in coastal lowlands are the major causes; therefore, there

is very low attribution to climate change.

5.5. Adaptation and Managing Risks

5.5.1. Introduction

Coastal adaptation and risk management refer to a wide range of human

activities related to the social and institutional processes of framing the

Very low Low Medium

Degree of conﬁdence in attribution to climate change

High Very high

Very low

Low Medium

Degree of conﬁdence in detection of trends in

climate change–sensitive elements

High Very high

Evidence of changes in species and ecosystems

Impacts on coastal processes

Impacts on human systems

1. Increase in coral bleaching

2. Shift in range limits of species distribution

3. Decline in the extent of salt marshes and mangroves

4. Decline in the extent of seagrasses

5. Decreased calciﬁcation

6. Increased beach erosion

7. Increased saltwater intrusion

8. Increased ﬂood damage

9. Decreased harbor operations

Figure 5-5 | Summary of detection and attribution in coastal areas.

387

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

adaptation problem, identifying and appraising adaptation options,

implementing options, and monitoring and evaluating outcomes (Chapters

2, 14, 15, 16, and 17). The governance of this process is challenging due

to the complex, nonlinear dynamics of the coastal socio-ecological systems

(Rosenzweig et al., 2011) as well as the presence of multiple management

goals, competing preferences of stakeholders, and social conflicts involved

(Hopkins et al., 2012). In many instances, coastal adaptation may thus

be characterized to be a “wicked problem” (Rittel and Webber, 1973),

in the sense that there is often no clear agreement about what exactly

the adaptation problem is and there is uncertainty and ambiguity as to

how improvements might be made (Moser et al., 2012).

Since AR4, the set of adaptation measures considered has been

expanded specifically toward ecosystem-based measures (Section 5.5.2);

novel approaches for appraising coastal adaptation decisions have been

applied (Section 5.5.3.1) and the analysis of adaptation governance and

the institutional context in which decisions are taken has progressed

(Section 5.5.3.2). Progress has also been made in better integrating

adaptation practices within existing policy frameworks (Section 5.5.4.1)

as well as in implementing adaptation and identifying good practices

(Section 5.5.4.2). A number of studies have also explored the global

costs and benefits of coastal adaptation (Section 5.5.5); opportunities,

constraints, and limits of coastal adaptation (Section 5.5.6); linkages

between coastal adaptation and mitigation (Section 5.5.7); and the

long-term commitment to coastal adaptation (Section 5.5.8).

5.5.2. Adaptation Measures

A detailed discussion on general adaptation needs and measures can

be found in Chapter 14. As a first approximation, adaptation measures

were classified into institutional and social measures (Section 14.3.2.1),

technological and engineered measures (Section 14.3.2.2), and

ecosystem-based adaptation measures (Section 14.3.2.3). In terms of

coastal adaptation, most of the existing measures can be included

within this classification.

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 5.3 | How can coastal communities plan for and adapt to the impacts

of climate change, in particular sea level rise?

Planning by coastal communities that considers the impacts of climate change reduces the risk of harm from those

impacts. In particular, proactive planning reduces the need for reactive response to the damage caused by extreme

vents. Handling things after the fact can be more expensive and less effective.

An increasing focus of coastal use planning is on precautionary measures, that is, measures taken even if the cause

nd effect of climate change is not established scientiﬁcally. These measures can include things like enhancing

coastal vegetation and protecting coral reefs. For many regions, an important focus of coastal use planning is to

use the coast as a natural system to buffer coastal communities from inundation, working with nature rather than

against it, as in the Netherlands.

While the details and implementation of such planning take place at local and regional levels, coastal land

management is normally supported by legislation at the national level. For many developing countries, planning

at the grass roots level does not exist or is not yet feasible.

The approaches available to help coastal communities adapt to the impacts of climate change fall into three general

categories:

1. Protection of people, property, and infrastructure is a typical ﬁrst response. This includes “hard” measures such

as building seawalls and other barriers, along with various measures to protect critical infrastructure. “Soft”

protection measures are increasingly favored. These include enhancing coastal vegetation and other coastal

management programs to reduce erosion and enhance the coast as a barrier to storm surges.

2. Accommodation is a more adaptive approach involving changes to human activities and infrastructure. These

include retroﬁtting buildings to make them more resistant to the consequences of sea level rise, raising low-lying

bridges, or increasing physical shelter capacity to handle needs caused by severe weather. Soft accommodation

measures include adjustments to land use planning and insurance programs.

3. Managed retreat involves moving away from the coast and may be the only viable option when nothing else is

possible.

Some combination of these three approaches may be appropriate, depending on the physical realities and societal

values of a particular coastal community. The choices need to be reviewed and adjusted as circumstances change

over time.

388

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

he IPCC classification of coastal adaptation strategies consisting of

retreat, accommodation, and protection (Nicholls et al., 2007) is now

widely used and applied in both developed and developing countries

(Boateng, 2010; Linham and Nicholls, 2012). This trilogy of strategies

has expanded into broad approaches of retreat, defend, and attack

(Peel, 2010). Protection aims at advancing or holding existing defense

lines by means of different options such as land claim; beach and dune

nourishment; the construction of artificial dunes and hard structures such

as seawalls, sea dikes, and storm surge barriers; or removing invasive

and restoring native species. Accommodation is achieved by increasing

flexibility, flood proofing, flood-resistant agriculture, flood hazard mapping,

the implementation of flood warning systems, or replacing armored with

living shorelines. Retreat options include allowing wetlands to migrate

inland, shoreline setbacks, and managed realignment by, for example,

breaching coastal defenses allowing the creation of an intertidal habitat.

The appropriate measure may depend on several factors requiring a

careful decision-making and governance process (Section 5.5.3).

Since AR4, coastal adaptation options have been revised and summarized

in several guidebooks (EPA, 2009; USAID, 2009; UNEP, 2010) including

best practice examples. Especially relevant has been the growth of

Community Based Adaptation (CBA) measures (robust evidence, high

agreement). Table 5-4 compiles different examples of CBA measures in

countries such as Bangladesh, India, and the Philippines.

Ecosystem-based adaptation is increasingly attracting attention (Munroe

et al., 2011). Adaptation measures based on the protection and restoration

of relevant coastal natural systems such as mangroves (Schmitt et al.,

2013), oyster reefs (Beck et al., 2011), and salt marshes (Barbier et al.,

2011) are seen as no- or low-regret options irrespective of future climate

(Cheong et al., 2013; medium evidence, high agreement). Further work

is still needed in order to make reliable quantitative estimates and

predictions of the capability of some of these ecosystems to reduce

wave, storm surge, and sea level rise impacts and in order to provide

reliable cost-benefit analysis of how they compare to other measures

based on traditional engineering approaches.

5.5.3. Adaptation Decision Making and Governance

Since AR4, progress has been made in understanding coastal adaptation

decisions and governance. For a general treatment of adaptation

decision making and governance, see Chapters 2, 15, and 17.

5.5.3.1. Decision Analysis

One specific quality of many coastal adaptation decisions is that these

involve options with long (i.e., 30 and more years) investment time

scales (e.g., land use planning, flood defenses, construction of housing,

and transportation infrastructure; Section 5.5.2). For such decisions,

standard methods that rely on probability distribution of outcomes, such

as cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty, cannot be applied because

of the difficulties, both in theory and practice, to associate probabilities

to future levels of GHG emissions, which determine the level of impacts

and outcomes (Lempert and Schlesinger, 2001; Hallegate, 2009; see also

Section 17.3.6.2).

lternative approaches that represent uncertainty not through a single

probability distribution but through a range of scenarios have thus been

applied to long-term coastal adaptation. Robust decision making (RDM),

for example, refers to approaches where options that work well over a

wide range of these scenarios are preferred (Lempert and Schlesinger,

2000; Lempert and Collins, 2007). RDM in this sense has been applied

to, e.g., the Port of Los Angeles infrastructure (Lempert et al., 2012).

Another set of approaches uses the criterion of flexibility to decide

between alternative strategies. Flexible and reversible options are

favored over non-flexible and non-reversible ones and decisions are

delayed to keep future options open (Hallegate, 2009). The adaptation

pathways approach, for example, implements the criterion of flexibility

by characterizing alternative strategies in terms of two attributes: (1)

adaptation tipping points (ATPs), which are points beyond which strategies

are no longer effective (Kwadijk et al., 2010); and (2) what alternative

strategies are available once a tipping point has been reached (Haasnoot

et al., 2013). Importantly, the exact time when an ATP is reached does

not matter; it is rather the flexibility of having alternative strategies

available that is driving the decision. Prominent applications of this

approach include the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan (Penning-Roswell et

al., 2012; Box 5-1), the Dutch Delta Programme (Kabat et al., 2009), and

the New York City Panel on Climate Change (Rosenzweig et al., 2011).

5.5.3.2. Institution and Governance Analysis

Decisions are made within a context. Institution and governance analysis

comprise a variety of approaches that aim at describing this context as

well as at explaining the emergence and performance of institutions

and governance structures (GS). Institution analysis is particularly

relevant to coastal adaptation, because deciding between options and

implementing them is an ongoing process involving complex inter-

linkages between public and private decisions at multiple levels of

decision making and in the context of other issues, existing policies,

conflicting interests, and diverse GS (e.g, Few et al., 2007; Urwin and

Jordan, 2008; Hinkel et al., 2010; see also Sections 2.2.2, 2.2.3). The

non-consideration of this context may hinder or mislead adaptation

decisions and implementations as reported by the emerging literature

on barriers to adaptation (Section 5.5.5). Institution analysis strives to

understand how this context shapes decisions, and insights gained may

be employed to craft effective institutions and policies for adaptation.

For coastal adaptation, the effectiveness of existing GS is often hindered

owing to a lack of horizontal (i.e., within the same level of decision

making) and vertical (i.e., between different levels of decision making)

integration of organizations and policies (high confidence). Storbjörk

and Hedren (2011), for example, report on a weak vertical administrative

interplay in coastal GS in Sweden. In the UK, the effectiveness of local

GS of Coastal Partnership is found to be limited because these are

poorly integrated with higher level policies (Stojanovic and Barker,

2008). In the UK, national level coastal recommendations are difficult

to translate into local level actions (Few et al., 2007) and, in the USA,

coastal policies often have ambiguous or contradictory goals (Bagstad

et al., 2007). In a number of African cases, coastal policies are found

not to take into account longer term climate change (Bunce et al.,

2010).

389

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

Governance issues are particularly challenging when considering

planned retreat (medium evidence). While managed realignment is on

the political agenda in Germany and the UK, the political costs of doing

so are high, as both the existing GS as well as public opinion are geared

toward protection (e.g., Tunstall and Tapsell, 2007), so that short election

cycles do not provide incentives for politicians to undertake actions that

may produce benefits in the long term (Few et al., 2007; Rupp-Armstrong

and Nicholls, 2007). Along the Queensland coast in Australia the option

of planned retreat is disappearing because of rapid coastal development

and liability laws favoring development. To prevent this, risks and

responsibilities would need to be redistributed from the governments

to the beneficiaries of this development (Abel et al., 2011).

While institutional factors are decisive in enabling coastal adaptation

(high confidence), the role of institutions in coastal adaptation is generally

under-researched. The majority of studies are descriptive. Institutional

analysis striving to understand which GS emerge and are effective

depending on both biophysical and social system characteristics as

Box 5-1 | London’s Thames Estuary 2100 Plan: Adaptive Management for the Long Term

The Environment Agency in Britain has recently developed the Thames Estuary 2100 plan (TE2100) to manage future ﬂood threat to

London (Environment Agency, 2012). The motivation was a fear that due to accelerated climate change-induced sea level rise the time

could already be too short for replacing the Thames Barrier (completed in 1982) and other measures that protect London, because such

major engineering schemes take 25 to 30 years to plan and implement. An adaptive plan that manages risk in an iterative way was

adopted based on the adaptation pathway approach (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2012; see also Section 5.5.3.1; Figure 5-6). This plan

includes maintaining the existing system in the ﬁrst 25 years, then enhancing the existing defenses in a carefully planned way over

the next 25 to 60 years, including selectively raising defenses and possibly over-rotating the Barrier to raise protection standards.

Finally, in the longer term (beyond 2070) there will be the need to plan for more substantial measures if sea level rise accelerates.

This might include a new barrier, with even higher protection standards, probably nearer to the sea, or even a coastal barrage. In the

meantime the adaptive approach requires careful monitoring of the drivers of risk in the Estuary to ensure that ﬂood management

authorities are not taken by surprise and forced into emergency measures.

New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defenses

Raise defenses

New barrier, raise defenses

New barrier

Existing system

1 m0 m 4 m

3 m

2 m

Maximum water

evel rise:

Previous extreme

used in TE2100

a and upper part of

ew TE2100 likely range

Sea level rise scenarios

Top of new

H++ range

Over-rotate Thames

Barrier and restore

interim defenses

Improve Thames Barrier and raise

downstream defenses

Flood storage, improve Thames

Barrier, raise upstream and

downstream defenses

Flood storage, over-rotate Thames

Barrier, raise upstream and

downstream defenses

Flood storage, restore

interim defenses

Measures for

managing ﬂood risk

indicating effective

range against

Predicted maximum

water level under

each scenario

Possible future

adaptation route (or

pathway), allowing for

different degrees of sea

level rise through time

Link to alternative

measures

Figure 5-6 | Adaptation measures and pathways considered in the TE2100 project. The boxes show the measures and the range of sea level rise over which the

measures are effective. The black arrows link to alternative measures that may be applied once a measure is no longer effective. The red lines show various 21st century

sea level rise scenarios used in the analysis including a conservative estimate of about 0.9 m by the UK Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs ('Defra and

upper part of new TE2100 likely range'), a high-level scenario ('Top of new H++ range'), and an extreme scenario of over 4 meters ('previous extreme used in TE2100').

The fat green line shows a possible future adaptation route (or pathway), allowing for different degrees of sea level rise through time (adapted from Lowe et al., 2009).

390

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

ound in the fields of socio-ecological systems (Dietz et al., 2003; Folke

et al., 2005; Ostrom 2007, 2009) and institutional economics (Hagedorn

et al., 2002; Bougherara et al., 2009) are practically nonexistent.

5.5.4. Implementation and Practice

Since AR4, more experience has been gained in coastal adaptation

implementation and practice. Generally, adaptation is not carried out

stand-alone but in the context of already existing policy and practice

frameworks. Section 5.5.4.1 assesses frameworks that are particularly

relevant for coastal adaptation, and Section 5.5.4.2 assesses the experience

as well as principles and compiled best practice guidelines.

5.5.4.1. Frameworks

The issues for coastal adaptation are not radically different from issues

encountered within ICZM, which offers an enabling environment

for adaptation practice (Celliers et al., 2013). ICZM is a long-term,

institutionalized and iterative process that promotes the integration of

coastal activities, relevant policymakers, practitioners, and scientists

across coastal sectors, space and organizations with a view to use

coastal resources in a sustainable way (Christie et al., 2005; Kay and

Alder, 2005; Sales, 2009; WGII AR5 Glossary). Considering climate change

in this framework does not mean radical changes to ICZM, because ICZM

already emphasizes the integration of coastal issues across sectors and

policy domains as well as the long-term perspective (e.g., Hofstede,

2008; Falaleeva et al., 2011). The major difference of coastal adaptation

from ICZM is coping with greater uncertainty, longer time frames in

planning (beyond 30 years), and long-term commitments inherent to

climate change (Tobey et al. 2010). So far, however, there is limited

evidence and low agreement on the effectiveness of ICZM alone or

combined with climate change adaptation. Even though ICZM has been

applied throughout the world for over 40 years, many obstacles to its

successful implementation still remain (high confidence). Generally,

there is a lack of empirical research evaluating ICZM (Stojanovic et al.,

2004; Stojanovic and Ballinger, 2009). A recent review of ICZM in Europe

concluded that the complexity of coastal regulations, demographic

deficits, lack of sustainable finance and a failure to involve communities,

business, and industry hinder its implementation (Shipman and Stojanovic,

2007). Developing countries in particular struggle to meet the goals of

ICZM owing to a lack of qualified human resources, a lack of human,

legal, and institutional capacities (Isager, 2008; González-Riancho et al.,

2009), difficulties in integrating policy across multiple coastal agencies

(Martinez et al., 2011; Ibrahim and Shaw, 2012), power (abuse) of the

majority political party or political leaders (Isager, 2008; Tabet and

Fanning, 2012), the lack of long-term financial commitment of donors

(González-Riancho et al., 2009; Ibrahim and Shaw, 2012), and a lack of

knowledge regarding the coastal system (González-Riancho et al.,

2009).

Another prominent framework used for coastal adaptation practice is

adaptive management (AM), which has been developed as a response

to the deep uncertainty characterizing ecosystem management, where

it is often impossible to predict outcomes of management interventions.

AM thus aims to test management hypothesis by implementing them,

onitoring their outcomes and learning from these to refine the

management hypothesis to be applied (Holling, 1978; Walters, 1986).

There are numerous applications of AM to coastal management (e.g.,

Walters, 1997; Marchand et al., 2011; Mulder et al., 2011), but there is

limited evidence of its long-term effectiveness. Limitations of AM are also

notable, such as the potential high cost of experimentation and a range

of institutional barriers hindering the delivery of flexible management

approaches (e.g., McLain and Lee, 1996).

Community-based adaptation (CBA) refers to the generation and

implementation of locally driven adaptation strategies that address both

climate change impacts and development deficits for the climate-

vulnerable poor and that aim to strengthen the adaptive capacity of

local people to climate and non-climate risk factors (Nicholls et al.,

2007; Reid et al., 2009; Ayers and Dodman, 2010; Ayers and Huq, 2013;

see also Sections 14.2.1, 15.4.3.1, 24.4.6.5). CBA is a bottom-up approach

to adaptation involving all relevant stakeholders, especially local

communities (Ayers and Huq, 2009; UNDP, 2010; Riadh et al., 2012)

(Table 5-4). As such, CBA approaches have been developed through

active participatory processes with local stakeholders (Ayers and Forsyth,

2009), and operated on a learning-by-doing, bottom-up, empowerment

paradigm (Kates, 2000; Huq and Reid, 2007).

CBA experiences emphasize that it is important to understand a

community’s unique perception of its adaptive capacities in order to

identify useful solutions (Parvin et al., 2008; Badjeck et al., 2010; Paul

and Routray, 2010) and that scientific and technical information on

anticipated coastal climate impacts needs to be translated into a suitable

language and format that allows people to be able to participate in

adaptation planning (Saroar and Routray, 2010). Furthermore, effective

CBA needs to consider measures that cut across sectors and technological,

social, and institutional processes, as technology by itself is only one

component of successful adaptation (Pelling, 2011; Rawlani and Sovacool,

2011; Sovacool et al., 2011).

Efforts are also being made to integrate climate change adaptation into

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) frameworks (Mercer, 2010; Polack, 2010;

Romieu et al., 2010; Gero et al., 2011) and adaptation practice is likely

to move forward as climate change adaptation (CCA) converges with

disaster risk reduction (UNISDR, 2009; Setiadi et al., 2010; Tran and

Nitivattananon, 2011; Hay, 2012). In Japan, for example, coastal climate

change adaptation has been mainstreamed into the framework of

Coastal Disaster Management in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku

Earthquake Tsunami. The priority of upgrading coastal defenses in the

face of sea level rise is thereby judged from the potential damage on

the assets in predicted inundation areas on the one hand as well as

from the age and earthquake resistance of the coastal structures on the

other hand (Central Disaster Management Council, 2011; Committee

on Adaptation Strategy for Global Warming in the Coastal Zone, 2011).

Other important policy and practice frameworks in place in the coastal

zone include poverty reduction and development (Mitchell et al., 2010).

5.5.4.2. Principles, Guidance, and Experiences

Much of the observed adaptation practice deals with the coastal

hazards of erosion and flooding (Hanak and Moreno, 2012). In many

391

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

parts of the world, small island indigenous communities address climate

change consequences based on their own traditional knowledge

(Percival, 2008; Langton et al., 2012; Nakashima et al., 2012). Long-

term adaptation to sea level rise has been confined to a few major

projects such as the Venice Lagoon project, the Thames Estuary 2100

project (Box 5-1), and the Delta Programme, Netherlands (Norman,

2009).

Through the Delta Programme, the Dutch government has set out far-

reaching recommendations on how to keep the country flood-proof over

the 21st century taking into account a sea level rise as high as 0.65 to

1.3 m by 2100. These recommendations constitute a paradigm shift from

“fighting” the forces of nature with engineered structures to “working

with nature” and providing “room for river” instead (Kabat et al., 2009).

The recommendations include soft and environmentally friendly

solutions such as preserving land from development to accommodate

increased river inundation, maintaining coastal protection by beach

nourishment, improving the standards of flood protection, and putting

in place the necessary political-administrative, legal, and financial

resources (Stive et al., 2011).

From adaptation experiences, good practices (practices that have shown

consistently better results and could be used as benchmark) have been

derived. For some European cases, for example, McInnes (2006) has

collected good practices for coastlines facing coastal erosion, flooding,

and landslide events. In the California adaptation study that includes

coasts, the lessons learnt include using best available science, decision

on goals and early actions, locating relevant partners, identification and

elimination of regulatory barriers, and encouragement of introduction

of new state mandates and guidelines (Bedsworth and Hanak, 2010).

Boateng (2010) presented 15 case studies from 12 countries of best

practice in coastal adaptation to help coastal managers and policymakers.

Bangladesh provides good examples on awareness raising, disaster

warning and control, and protective building measures (Martinez et al.,

2011). In general, documentation on good adaptation practices for

coasts is improving.

In addition, numerous principles have been set forward. In a broad-scale

assessment of climate change threats to Australia’s coastal ecosystems,

seven principles in adaptation were suggested: clearly defined goals by

location, thorough understanding of connectivity within and between

Impact Type of option Measures Brief description References

Increased

salinity

ew and diversiﬁ ed

livelihoods

aline-tolerant crop

cultivation

armer production of saline-tolerant multi-vegetable varieties and non-rice crops Ahmed (2010); Rabbani et al.

(2013)

ew and diversiﬁ ed

livelihoods

eora nursery Mangrove fruit production to develop local female entrepreneurship Ahmed (2010)

ew and diversiﬁ ed

livelihoods

rab fattening Collection, rearing, and feeding of crabs for 15 days to increase local market value Pouliotte et al. (2009)

tructural Homestead protection Houses constructed on raised foundations to mitigate salinity ingress Ayers and Forsyth (2009)

F l o o d i n g /

inundation

Socio-technical Disaster management

ommittees

Multi-community stakeholder committees established to discuss disaster

reparedness and response on a monthly basis

Ahammad (2011)

ocio-technical Early ﬂ ood warning systems Established systems converted into a language and format understood by local

communities; warning dissemination through community radio services

hmed (2005); Saroar and

Routray (2010)

ew and diversiﬁ ed

livelihoods

quaculture: cage and

integrated approaches

mall-scale ﬁ sh culture in cages on submerged agriculture land; aquaculture

integrated with other livelihood practices

omeroy et al. (2006); Pouliotte

et al. (2009); Khan et al. (2012)

ew and diversiﬁ ed

livelihoods

mbankment cropping Growing different vegetable varieties around heightened shrimp enclosures /coastal

polders for productive use of fallow land

hmed (2010)

New and diversiﬁ ed

ivelihoods

Hydroponics Cultivating vegetables and other crops on ﬂ oating gardens Ayers and Forsyth (2009);

hmed (2010); Dev (2013)

C y c l o n e s /

storm surges

Structural / hard Homestead reinforcement Low-cost retroﬁtting to strengthen existing household structures, especially roofs;

trict implementation of building codes

Sales (2009); Ahmed (2010)

S t r u c t u r a l / s o f t H o m e s t e a d e c o s y s t e m

rotection

Plantation of speciﬁ c fruit trees around homestead area Haq et al. (2012)

Structural / hard Underground bunker

construction

Underground bunker established, providing protected storage space for valuable

community assets

Raihan et al. (2010)

Sea level rise

Institutional Risk insurance mechanisms Farmers educated on comprehensive risk insurance, focusing on sea level rise and

coastal agriculture

Khan et al. (2012)

Multi-coastal

impacts

Institutional Integrating climate change

into education

Formal and informal teacher training and curriculum development on climate

change, vulnerability, and risk management

Ahmed (2010)

Institutional Integrated coastal zone

management (ICZM) plan

ICZM plan development at local institutional level, including land and sea use

zoning for ecosystem conservation

Sales (2009)

S t r u c t u r a l / s o f t R e s t o r a t i o n , r e g e n e r a t i o n

and management of coastal

habitats

Community-led reforestation and afforestation of mangrove plantations, including

integration of aquaculture and farming to increase household income levels

Rawlani and Sovacool, (2011);

Sovacool et al. (2012)

Institutional Community participation in

local government decision-

making

Active female participation in local government planning and budgeting processes

to facilitate delivery of priority coastal adaptation needs

Faulkner and Ali (2012)

I n s t i t u t i o n a l /

socio-technical

Improved research and

knowledge management

Establishment of research centers; community-based monitoring of changes in

coastal areas

Sales (2009); Rawlani and

Sovacool (2011)

Table 5-4 | Community-based adaptation measures.

392

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

cosystems, consideration of non-climatic drivers, involvement of all

relevant stakeholders, easily available and shared data, re-thinking of

existing policy and planning constraints, and adaptation at local/regional

scales (Hadwen et al., 2011). Based on Oxfam’s adaptation programs

in South Asia that include coastal communities, additional principles

presented include a focus on the poor, vulnerable, and marginalized;

community or local ownership; flexible and responsive implementation;

and preparation for future and capacity building at multiple levels

(Sterrett, 2011). An assessment of worldwide case studies indicates the

importance of knowledge transfer of good practice methods for scaling

up adaptation strategies in and between regions and beyond the

national scale (Martinez et al., 2011).

Further principles reported include: Information on efficient adaptation

options alone (as assessed through DA approaches) may not fully serve

the needs of managers and must to be supplemented by financial and

technical assistance as well as boundary organizations that serve as an

interface between science and practice (Tribbia and Moser, 2008). The

adaptation and decision-making processes should be participatory and

inclusive, integrating all relevant stakeholders in a way that is culturally

appropriate (Milligan et al., 2009; Nunn, 2009). The adaptation processes

should foster mutual learning, experimentation, and deliberation among

stakeholders and researchers (Fazey et al., 2010; Kenter et al., 2011).

For example, neither scientific climate knowledge alone nor indigenous

knowledge alone is considered sufficient for coastal adaptation (Sales,

2009; Dodman and Mitlin, 2011; Bormann et al., 2012). Finally, since

coastal systems are complex, diverse, and dynamic, their governance

requires experimentation and learning by doing (Jentoft, 2007).

In summary, a wealth of adaptation activities can now be observed in

the coastal zone that depend on technology, policy, financial, and

institutional support, and are supported by documentation on good

practices (very high confidence). ICZM, with its emphasis on integration,

is likely to remain a major framework for coastal adaptation. While there

is high agreement on adaptation principles, there is to date little systematic

review of and hence limited evidence on why a given principle or

approach is effective in a given context (and not in another), which

emphasizes the need for research to better understand this context

(Section 5.5.3.2). Some of the literature on adaptation practice needs

to be treated with caution, because normative principles that have been

established ex ante are not systematically distinguished from ex post

evaluations of the experiences carried out. Despite the wealth of coastal

adaptation activities, it must, however, be emphasized that meeting the

multiple goals of coastal adaptation, improving governance, accounting

for the most vulnerable populations and sectors and fully integrating

consideration of natural ecosystems is still largely aspirational. Meanwhile,

development continues in high-risk coastal areas, coastal ecosystems

continue to degrade in many regions, coastal freshwater resources are

being overexploited in many highly populated areas, and vulnerability to

coastal disasters grows (e.g., Shipman and Stojanovic, 2007; McFadden,

2008; Jentoft, 2009; Mercer, 2010).

5.5.5. Global Adaptation Costs and Benefits

This section reports on studies that provide internally consistent estimates

of the direct costs of sea level rise impacts and adaptation at global

cales. These studies have used the models FUND and DIVA, which

are described in Section 5.4.1. Studies that use computable general

equilibrium models and growth models to estimate the indirect and

dynamic costs of climate change, including sea level rise, are reviewed

in Chapter 10.

Generally, cost estimates are difficult to compare across studies owing

to differences in scenarios used, impacts and adaptation options

considered, methodologies applied, and baseline conditions assumed.

Global adaptation costs have only been assessed for protection via dikes

and nourishment. Nicholls et al. (2011) estimate annual adaptation cost

in terms of dike construction, dike maintenance, and nourishment to be

US$25 to 270 billion per year in 2100 under a 0.5 to 2.0 m GMSLR for

2005–2100. Anthoff et al. (2010) estimate the net present value of dike

construction costs for 2005–2100 to be US$80 to 120 billion for 0.5 m

GMSLR and US$900 to 1100 billion for a 2 m GMSLR, respectively.

The available global studies show that it is economically rational to

protect large parts of the world’s coastline during the 21st century

against sea level rise impacts of increased coastal flood damage and

land loss (Nicholls and Tol, 2006; Anthoff et al., 2010; Hinkel et al., 2013;

limited evidence, high agreement). For dry land and wetlands loss, the

FUND model shows that cost-benefit analysis would justify protecting

80% of the exposed coast in all but 15 countries under a GMSLR of 20

to 40 cm per century (Nicholls and Tol, 2006). Using the same method,

Nicholls et al. (2008) show that under extreme GMSLR of up to 4 m in

2100, this fraction would drop to 30% to 50%. For coastal flooding, an

application of DIVA shows that, for 21st century GMSLR scenarios of

60 to 126 cm, the global costs of protection through dikes (levees) are

much lower than the costs of damages avoided through adaptation

(Hinkel et al., 2013).

At the same time, costs and benefits of sea level rise impacts and

adaptation vary strongly between regions and countries with some

developing countries and small islands reaching limits of adaption or

not being able to bear the costs of impacts and adaptation (limited

evidence, high agreement) (Section 29.6.2.1). The cost of 1 m of GMSLR

in 2100 (considering land loss due to submergence and protection costs)

is projected to be above 1% of national GDP for Micronesia, Palau, the

Bahamas, and Mozambique (Anthoff et al., 2010). For coastal flooding,

annual damage and protection costs are projected to amount to several

percentages of the national GDP for small island states such as Kiribati,

the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Tuvalu under GMSLR projections of

0.6 to 1.3 m by 2100 (Hinkel et al., 2013). Further substantial costs arise,

particularly for developing countries owing to their current adaptation

deficit (i.e., coastal defenses are not adapted to the current climate

variability), which is not well understood and requires further analysis

(Parry et al., 2009). For example, the adaption deficit of Africa with

regard to coastal flooding is estimated at US$300 billion (Hinkel et al.,

2011) and that of Bangladesh with respect to cyclones at US$25 billion

(World Bank, 2011).

Several methodological gaps remain. As there are so few studies on the

costs and benefits of sea level rise at a global level, uncertainties are largely

unknown and the need for further research is great. The socioeconomic

drivers, sea level rise scenarios, and impacts considered as well as

damages and losses valued are incomplete. For example, costs of salinity

393

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

ntrusion, land loss due to increased coastal erosion, cost of forced

migration due to permanent inundation, the backwater effect, and the

impact of sea level rise in combination with other drivers on ecosystems

have not been assessed at global scales (Section 5.5.5). Generally for

sea level rise impacts, it is difficult to establish a “no adaptation”

baseline and the choice of the baseline changes damage costs (Yohe et

al., 2011).

Another gap is related to the fact that global studies have focused on

protection via hard structures while many more potentially cheaper or

socially preferable measures are available including “soft” protection,

retreat, and accommodation measures (Section 5.1). Future work needs

to consider trade-offs between all available measures. Hard protection

measures, for example, may incur additional costs on adjacent unprotected

coasts (Brown et al., 2013) or destroy coastal wetlands through coastal

squeeze (Section 5.4.2.3). While the costs of “soft” protection measures

such as ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) are largely unknown (Linham

and Nicholls, 2010; Engineers Australia, 2012), these may provide

additional benefits in the form of a variety of ecosystem services (Alongi,

2008; IUCN, 2008; Anthony et al., 2009; Vignola et al., 2009; Pérez et

al., 2010; Espinosa-Romero et al., 2011; McGinnis and McGinnis, 2011;

Zeitlin et al., 2012). Finally, it must be noted that protection also further

attracts people and development to the floodplain, which in turn increases

the risk of potential catastrophic consequence in the case of defense

failure. This is particularly true for many coastal cities such as London,

Tokyo, Shanghai, Hamburg, and Rotterdam that already rely heavily on

coastal defenses (Nicholls et al., 2007).

5.5.6. Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits

There is a growing recognition of the potential co-benefits and new

opportunities that can be achieved by mainstreaming adaptation with

existing local to national goals and priorities (Section 14.3.4). DRR and

adaptation share the common goals of reducing vulnerability against

impacts of extreme events while creating strategies that limit risk from

hazards (IPCC, 2012). This is especially true in coastal areas where extreme

flooding events due to severe storm surges are one of the main sources

of hazard. Besides, integrating adaptation with national and local

planning can also contribute to building resilience in coastal areas.

EBA is considered to be an emerging adaptation opportunity (Munroe

et al. 2011) (Section 16.6, Box CC-EA). In coastal areas, the conservation

or restoration of habitats (e.g., mangroves, wetlands, and deltas) can

provide effective measures against storm surge, saline intrusion, and

coastal erosion by using their physical characteristics, biodiversity, and

the ecosystem services they provide as a means for adaptation (Borsje

et al., 2011; Jones et al., 2012; Cheong et al., 2013; Duarte et al., 2013b;

see also Section 5.5.7).

Since AR4, a variety of studies have been published providing a better

understanding of the nature of the constraints and limits to adaptation,

both generally (Sections 16.3, 16.4) and more specifically in the coastal

sector (e.g., Ledoux et al., 2005; Moser et al., 2008; Tribbia and Moser,

2008; Bedsworth and Hanak, 2010; Frazier et al., 2010; Saroar and

Routray, 2010; Mozumber et al., 2011; Storbjörk and Hedrén, 2011; Lata

and Nunn, 2012).

onstraints specific to coastal adaptation are polarized views in the

community regarding the risk of sea level rise and concerns regarding

the fairness of retreat schemes in Australia (Ryan et al., 2011); lack of

awareness of sea level rise risks and spiritual beliefs in Fiji (Lata and

Nunn, 2012); insufficient budget for the development of adaptation

policies and other currently pressing issues in the USA (Tribbia and Moser,

2008; Mozumber et al., 2011); distinct preferences for retreat options

depending on several social and exposure conditions in Bangladesh (Saroar

and Routray, 2010); and the need to provide compensatory habitats

under the Habitats Regulations and lack of local public support in the

UK (Ledoux et al., 2005). Other relevant constraints include the lack of

locally relevant information, resource tenure, and political will, especially

critical in developing countries (robust evidence, high agreement).

Besides, a gap exists between the useful climate information provided

by scientists and the one demanded by decision makers.

Different constraints typically do not act in isolation, but in interacting

bundles (robust evidence, high agreement). Therefore it is difficult to predict

which constraints matter most in any specific context but instead multiple

constraints need to be addressed if adaptation is to move successfully

through the different stages of the management process (Moser and

Ekstrom, 2010; Londsdale et al., 2010; Storbjörk, 2010; medium evidence,

high agreement). Besides, some factors can act as enablers and add to

the adaptation capacity, while acting as constraints for others (Burch,

2010; Storbjörk, 2010; medium evidence, high agreement).

Finally, a common concern emerging from the literature reviews

(Biesbroek et al., 2010; Ekstrom et al., 2011) is that some critical

constraints arise from the interactions across policy domains, existing

laws and regulations, and long-term impacts of past decisions and

policies (low evidence, high agreement).

A limit is reached when adaptation efforts are unable to provide an

acceptable level of security from risks to existing objectives and values

and prevent the loss of key attributes, components, or services of an

ecosystem (Box 16-1; Sections 16.2, 16.5) and may arise as a result of

most of the constraints described above.

Regarding coastal areas, it is widely recognized that biophysical

limitations arise, for example, in small island developing states where

adaptation through retreat to increasing impact of sea level rise in

conjunction with storm surges and flooding is not an option due to limited

high land availability, creating a temporary and eventually permanent

human displacement from low-lying areas (Pelling and Uitto, 2001;

medium evidence, high agreement). Nicholls et al. (2011) show that

only a limited number of adaptation options are available for specific

coastal areas if sea level exceeds a certain threshold (1 m) at the end

of the century.

Regarding natural (unassisted) adaptation, several researchers have

examined biophysical limits, for example, of coastal marshes (Craft et

al., 2009; Langley et al., 2009; Mudd et al., 2009; Kirwan et al., 2010),

and found that under certain nonlinear feedbacks among inundation,

plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition coastal

wetlands can adapt to conservative rates of sea level rise (SRES A1B) if

suspended sediment surpasses a certain threshold. In contrast, even

coastal marshes with high sediment supplies will submerge near the

394

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

nd of the 21st century under scenarios of more rapid sea level rise

(e.g., those that include ice sheet melting).

Increased ocean acidification is expected to limit adaptation of coral

reefs to climate change (Boxes CC-OA and CC-CR).

.5.7. Synergies and Trade-offs

between Mitigation and Adaptation

Klein et al. (2007, p. 749) defined trade-offs between mitigation and

adaptation as the “balancing of adaptation and mitigation when it is not

possible to carry out both activities fully at the same time (e.g., due to

financial or other constraints).” Successful adaptive coastal management

of climate risks will involve assessing and minimizing potential trade-

offs with other non-climate policy goals (e.g., economic development,

enhancement of coastal tourism) and interactions between adaptation

and mitigation (e.g., Brown et al., 2002; Tol, 2007; Barbier et al., 2008;

Bunce et al., 2010).

Adaptation will be the predominant approach to reducing climate risks

to coastal communities, populations, resources, and activities over the

21st century as large increases in sea level rise cannot be ruled out (WGI

AR5 Section 13.5.2) and because of the time lag between emissions

reductions, temperature changes, and impacts on global sea levels

(Nicholls et al., 2007, 2011; see also Section 5.5.7). Still, positive synergies

and complementarities between mitigation and adaptation in the

coastal sector exist.

Since AR4, a series of studies have pointed out that marine vegetated

habitats (seagrasses, salt marshes, macroalgae, or mangroves)

contribute to almost 50% of the total organic carbon burial in ocean

sediments leading to the so-called Blue Carbon (coastal carbon stocks)

strategies (Nellemann et al., 2009; McLeod et al., 2011; Duarte et al.,

2013b). These strategies aim at exploring and implementing the

necessary mechanisms allowing Blue Carbon to become part of emission

and mitigation protocols along with other carbon-binding ecosystems

such as rainforests (Nellemann et al., 2009). Besides, marine vegetated

habitats provide additional functions including the buffering of impacts

against storm surges and waves, soil preservation, raising the seafloor,

and shelter for fish nursery or habitat protection (Alongi, 2002; Kennedy

and Björk, 2009; Duarte et al., 2013b). Consequently, restoration or

ecosystem engineering of marine vegetated areas can be considered as

a good example of positive synergies between adaptation and mitigation

in coastal areas (Borsje et al., 2011; Jones et al., 2012; Duarte et al.,

2013b) and should be further explored to be considered as a valid

alternative in the portfolio of measures for climate change mitigation and

adaptation. Only recently results have been presented on the role of a

1700 ha seagrass restoration in carbon storage in sediments of shallow

coastal ecosystems in Virginia (USA). Restored seagrass meadows are

expected to accumulate carbon at a rate comparable to ranges measured

in natural seagrass meadows within 12 years of seeding, providing an

estimated social cost of US$4.10 ha

–1

(Greiner et al., 2013).

Many coastal zone-based activities and various coastal management

strategies involve emissions of GHGs. Reduction or cessation of some of

them may have positive implications for both mitigation and adaptation.

imiting offshore oil production may imply a net reduction in GHG

emissions depending on what form of energy replaces it, but also a

reduced risk of oil spills, a reduction of stresses on the marine/coastal

ecosystems, and variable socioeconomic impacts on human communities

and public health (O’Rourke and Connolly, 2003). This may result in

reduced vulnerability or increased resilience and consequently could

prove positive for adaptation. However, this measure would increase

the vulnerability of countries whose economies are highly dependent

on oil extraction.

Some coastal adaptation options may have potentially negative

implications on mitigation. Relocation of infrastructure and development

out of the coastal floodplains (retreat) will imply increase in one-time

GHG emissions due to rebuilding of structures and possible increase in

low-density urban development and ongoing transportation-related

emissions (Biesbroek et al., 2010). The building or upgrading of coastal

protection structures or ports will also imply an increased energy use

and GHG emissions related to construction (e.g., cement production)

(Boden et al., 2011).

Similarly, actions beneficial for mitigation may result in potential

negative impacts for adaptation. A more compact coastal urban design,

increasing development in floodplains (Giridharan et al., 2007), or the

development of marine renewable energy (Boehlert and Gill, 2010) may

introduce additional drivers on coastal systems reducing coastal

resilience and adaptive capacity.

5.5.8. Long-Term Commitment

to Sea Level Rise and Adaptation

In AR4, both WGI and WGII highlighted the long-term commitment to

sea level rise (Meehl et al., 2007; Nicholls et al., 2007), which means

that sea levels will continue to rise for centuries due to global warming

until reaching equilibrium conditions even if climate forcing is stabilized,

because there is a delay in the response of sea level rise to global warming

(WGI AR5 Section13.4.1). WGI AR5 has now assessed GMSLR until 2500

and this shows that even with aggressive mitigation measures (RCP2.6),

sea level continues to rise after 2100 (Table 5-1; see also WGI AR5

Sections 13.5.1, 13.5.4). With more moderate (RCP4.5.) and little (RCP8.5)

mitigation, larger ongoing increases in sea level are expected, lasting

for several centuries. Note that the ranges given after 2100 are only

model spread and not likely ranges. Looking beyond 2500, Levermann

et al. (2013) project that GMSL will rise on average by about 2.3 m per

degree Celsius of global warming within the next 2000 years. Under

present levels of global warming, this means that we have already

committed to a long-term sea level rise of 1.3 m above current levels

(Strauss, 2013). For other climate-related drivers, responses to global

warming levels are more immediate. For ocean acidification, for example,

pH rise would cease several decades after strict CO

emission reductions

begin (Bernie et al. 2010; see also Section 19.7.1).

This long-term commitment to sea level rise means that there is also a

long-term commitment to sea level rise impacts and adaptation. Few

studies have considered this and, from a methodological point of view,

it is difficult to look at socioeconomic conditions and human responses

on such large temporal scales. A limited number of studies have estimated

395

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

he effects of mitigation on coastal impacts on human settlements and

adaptation for the 21st century (Section 5.4.3.1). These studies show

that despite the delayed response of sea level rise to global warming,

mitigation can reduce impacts significantly already during the 21st

century. These studies also show that for most urban areas, coastal

protection is cost-efficient in reducing impacts during the 21st century

(Section 5.5.5). Past and current adaptation practice also confirms this:

cities such as Tokyo and Shanghai have protected themselves against

local sea level rise of several meters during the 20th century and the

Dutch and UK governments have decided that they can protect urban

Netherlands and London against 21st century sea level rise above 1 m

(Section 5.5.4). Not protecting cities such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam,

and London during the 21st century is not an option. On the other hand,

there are coastal areas such as small islands where protecting against

several meters of sea level rise in the long term is not a viable option.

Failing to mitigate, thus increasingly commits us to a world where

densely populated areas lock into a trajectory of increasingly costly hard

defenses and rising residual risks on the one hand and less densely

populated areas being abandoned on the other hand. Mitigation thus

plays, in the long term, a very important role in avoiding climate change

impacts in coastal areas by reducing the rate of sea level rise and

providing more time for long-term strategic adaptation measures to be

adopted. However, even if anthropogenic CO

emissions were reduced to

zero, sea levels would continue to rise for centuries, making adaptation

in coastal areas inevitable.

5.6. Information Gaps, Data Gaps,

and Research Needs

This chapter has updated knowledge on the impacts of climate change

on the coastal systems not in isolation but also from the perspective of

overexploitation and degradation that have been responsible for most

of the historical changes. There is a better understanding of the varying

impacts of weather and climate extremes and long-term sea level rise

on human systems.

That sea levels will rise is a confident projection of climate science but

uncertainties around the magnitude of future sea level rise remain large.

The rates and magnitude of sea level rise are summarized in Table 5-1

but, under present levels of global warming, we are already committed

to 1.3 m future sea level rise above current levels (Section 5.5.8). However,

many sea level rise assessments are not provided at spatial or temporal

scales most relevant for decision makers who require information on

baseline conditions and projections of change (Kettle, 2012) of RSLR (i.e.,

including local subsidence) for vulnerability assessment and adaptation

planning.

Generally, quantitative predictions of future coastal change remain

difficult despite the application of improvements in technology—for

example, aerial photographs, satellite imagery, Light Detection And

Ranging (LiDAR; Sesil et al., 2009; Revell et al., 2011; Pe’eri and Long,

2012)—to investigate and characterize large-scale shoreline changes.

There is incomplete understanding of coastal changes over the decade

and century time scales (Woodroffe and Murray-Wallace, 2012). Shoreline

response is more complex than simple submergence because of factors

such as sediment supply, mobilization and storage, offshore geology,

ngineering structures, and wave forcing (Ashton et al., 2011). The

projection of the future impacts of climate change on natural systems

is often hampered by the lack of sufficiently detailed data at the required

levels of space and time. Although observations have been made on

impacts on beaches, rocky coasts, wetlands, coastal aquifers, delta areas,

or river mouths by multi-drivers of climate and human-induced origin, there

is still an incomplete understanding of the relative role played by each of

these drivers and, especially of their combined effect. Uncertainties are

even higher when it comes to the evaluation of projected impacts.

For coastal ecosystems, more work needs to be done to develop predictive

models based on findings from multi-stressor experiments, both in the

field and in the laboratory. Reliable predictions require information on

multifactorial experiments performed on communities (preferably in the

field), and on time scales of months to years in order to take into

consideration the processes of biological acclimation and adaptation.

Although sea level is projected to rise in the future, there are significant

gaps in vulnerability assessment of other specific coastal impacts. For

example, the modeling of diseases that could affect coastal areas is

based mainly on the mean values of climate. Also, despite tourism being

one of the most important industries in the coastal areas, not enough

is known about tourists’ reactions to projected climatic change (Moreno

and Amelung, 2009b) or required adaptation measures for port facilities

(UNCTAD, 2009).

A wide range of coastal management frameworks and measures is

available and used in coastal adaptation to climate change, and the scope

for their integration has increased by combining scenarios of climate

change and socioeconomic conditions and risk assessment (Kirshen et

al., 2012). While various adaptation measures are available, at the local

level, there remains insufficient information on assessment of adaptation

options, particularly in developing countries.

Data and knowledge gaps exist or their reliability is insufficient. Despite

the availability of potentially useful climate information, a gap exists

between what is useful information for scientists and for decision makers.

For example, at the project level, engineers may have difficulties to “plug

in” climate projections presented by scientists. The proposed actions to

improve usability include varying levels of interaction, customization,

value-adding, retailing, and wholesaling (Lemos et al., 2012) so that

data and methods can be more openly accessible to fellow scientists,

users, and the public (Kleiner, 2011).

Coastal systems are affected by human and climate drivers and there

are also complex interactions between the two. In general, certain

components of coastal systems are sensitive and attributable to climate

drivers while others are not clearly discernible. For example, data are

available on the range shift in coastal plant and animal species and the

role of higher temperatures on coral bleaching (see Box CC-CR).

However, in many cases in the human systems, the detectable changes

can be largely attributed to human drivers (Section 5.3.4). Reducing our

knowledge gaps on the understanding of the processes inducing

changes would help to respond to them more efficiently.

The economics of coastal adaptation are under-researched. More

comprehensive assessments of valuation of coastal ecosystem services,

396

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

daptation costs, and benefits that simultaneously consider both the

gradual impact of land loss due to sea level rise and the stochastic

impacts of extreme water levels (storm surges, cyclones) are needed,

as well as other impacts such as saltwater intrusion, wetlands loss and

change, and backwater effects. Assessments should also consider a

more comprehensive range of adaptation options and strategies,

including “soft” protection, accommodation, and retreat options as well

as the trade-offs between these.

Governance of coastal adaptation and the role of institutions in the

transition toward sustainable coasts are under-researched. While

institutional factors are recognized to be decisive in constraining and

enabling coastal adaptation, most work remains descriptive. There is a

great need for dedicated social science research aimed at understanding

institutional change and which institutional arrangements are effective

in which socioeconomic and biophysical contexts (Kay, 2012; see also

Sections 5.5.3, 5.5.4).

Developing a coastal adaptation knowledge network between scientists,

policymakers, stakeholders, and the general public could be considered

a priority area for large coastal areas or regional areas affected by

climate change and sea level rise. This is well developed in the USA,

European Union, the Mediterranean, and Australia but less so in the

developing countries, except in certain regions, for example, Caribbean

islands and the Pacific Islands.

Future research needs for coastal adaptation are identified by several

developments in climate science. Based on the Li et al. (2011) survey of

the foci of climate research in the 21st century, the implications for coasts

would be on biodiversity and flooding. Future technological advances

may be significant—for example, new forms of energy and food

production and information and communication technology (ICT) for risk

monitoring (Delta Commission, 2008; Campbell et al., 2009; Zevenbergen

et al., 2013)—and these would be useful for flood risks and food

production in deltas and coastal systems (aquaculture).

With recent adverse climatic and environmental events on coasts,

adaptation demands different decision regimes (Kiker et al., 2010) but

adaptation, mitigation, and avoidance measures still require integrating

research that includes natural and social sciences (CCSP, 2009). Although

many gaps still remain, there is nevertheless a greater foundation of

climate change research on coasts across a wide range of fields

(Grieneisen and Zhang, 2011) upon which scientists, policymakers, and

the public may find improved solutions for coastal adaptation.

References

Aargaard, T., J. Nielsen, S.G. Jensen, and J. Friderichsen, 2004: Longshore sediment

transport and coastal erosion at Skallingen, Denmark. Danish Journal of

Geography, 104(1), 5-14.

Abel, N., R. Gorddard, B. Harman, A. Leitch, J. Langridge, A. Ryan, and S. Heyenga,

2011: Sea level rise, coastal development and planned retreat: analytical

framework, governance principles and an Australian case study.Environmental

Science and Policy,14(3), 279-288.

Adam, J.C., A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2009: Implications of global climate

change for snowmelt hydrology in the twenty-first century. Hydrological

Processes, 23(7), 962-972.

Aerts, J.C.J.H., W.J.W. Botzen, H. de Moel, and M. Bowman, 2013: Cost estimates for

flood resilience and protection strategies in New York City. Annals of the New

York Academy of Sciences, 1294,1-104.

Ahammad, R., 2011: Constraints of pro-poor climate change adaptation in

Chittagong City. Environment and Urbanization, 23(2), 503-515.

Ahmed, A.U., 2005: Adaptation options for managing water related extreme events

under climate change regime: Bangladesh perspectives. In Climate Change and

Water Resources in South Asia [Mirza, M.M.Q. and Q.K. Ahmad (eds.)]. Balkema

Press, Leiden, Netherlands, pp. 255-278.

Ahmed, A.U. (ed.), 2010: Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Pioneering

Example of Community Based Adaptation in Bangladesh. Centre for Global

Change (CGC) and CARE Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 23 pp.

Albright, R., 2011: Reviewing the effects of ocean acidification on sexual reproduction

and early life history stages of reef-building corals. Journal of Marine Biology,

2011, 473615, doi:10.1155/2011/473615.

Alexander, R.B., R.A. Smith, G.E. Schwarz, E.W. Boyer, J.V. Nolan, and J.W. Brakebill,

2008: Differences in phosphorus and nitrogen delivery to the Gulf of Mexico

from the Mississippi River Basin. Environmental Science and Technology, 42(3),

822-830.

Alexandre, A., J. Silva, P. Buapet, M. Björk, and R. Santos, 2012: Effects of CO

enrichment on photosynthesis, growth, and nitrogen metabolism of the seagrass

Zostera noltii. Ecology and Evolution, 2(10), 2625-2635.

Alongi, D. M., 2002: Present state and future of the world’s mangrove forests.

Environmental Conservation, 29(3), 331-349.

Alongi, D. M., 2008: Mangrove forests: resilience, protection from tsunamis, and

response to global climate change. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 76(1),

1-13.

Alvarez-Diaz, M., M.S.O. Giraldez, and M. Gonzalez-Gomez, 2010: Statistical

relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation and international tourism

demand in the Balearic Islands, Spain. Climate Research, 43, 207-214.

Andersson, A.J. and D. Gledhill, 2013: Ocean acidification and coral reefs: effects on

breakdown, dissolution, and net ecosystem calcification. Annual Review of

Marine Science, 5, 321-348.

Andersson, A.J., F.T. Mackenzie, and J.-P. Gattuso, 2011: Effects of ocean acidification

on benthic processes, organisms, and ecosystems. In: Ocean Acidification

[Gattuso, J.-P. and L. Hansson (eds.)]. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, and

New York, NY, USA, pp. 122-153.

Anthoff, D., R.J. Nicholls, and R.S.J. Tol, 2010: The economic impact of substantial

sea-level rise.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15(4),

321-335.

Anthony, A., J. Atwood, P. August, C. Byron, S. Cobb, C. Foster, C. Fry, A. Gold, K.

Hagos, L. Heffner, D.Q. Kellogg, K. Lellis-Dibble, J.J. Opaluch, C. Oviatt, A. Pfeiffer-

Herbert, N. Rohr, L. Smith, T. Smythe, J. Swift, and N. Vinhateiro, 2009: Coastal

lagoons and climate change: ecological and social ramifications in U.S. Atlantic

and Gulf Coast ecosystems.Ecology and Society, 14(1), 8, www.ecologyand

society.org/vol14/iss1/art8/.

Anthony, K.R.N., D.L. Kline, G. Diaz-Pulido, S. Dove, and O. Hoegh-Guldberg, 2008:

Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef

builders.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States

of America, 105(45), 17442-17446.

Arkema, K.K., G. Guannel, G. Verutes, S.A. Wood, A. Guerry, M. Ruckelshaus, P.

Kareiva, M. Lacayo, and J.M. Silver, 2013: Coastal habitats shield people and

property from sea-level rise and storms. Nature Climate Change, 3(10), 913-

918.

Arnell, N., T.K.T. Carter, K. Ebi, J. Edmonds, S. Hallegatte, E. Kriegler, R. Mathur, B.

O’Neill, K. Riahi, H. Winkler, D. van Vuuren, and T. Zwickel, 2011: A Framework

for a New Generation of Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Impact,

Adaptation, Vulnerability, and Mitigation Research. Primary background

document for the workshop, “The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic

Pathways for Climate Change Research,” Nov. 2-4, 2011, hosted by the

Integrated Science Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR),

Mesa Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA, 42 pp., www.isp.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/

Scenario_FrameworkPaper_15aug11_1.pdf

Arnell, N.W., J.A. Lowe, S. Brown, S.N. Gosling, P. Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, B. Lloyd-

Hughes, R.J. Nicholls, T.J. Osborn, T.M. Osborne, G.A. Rose, P. Smith, and R.F.

Warren, 2013: A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the

impacts of climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3(5), 512-519.

397

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

Ashton, A.D., M.J.A. Walkden, and M.E. Dickson, 2011: Equilibrium response of cliffed

coasts to changes in the rate of sea level rise. Marine Geology, 284(1-4), 217-

229.

Aufdenkampe, A.K., E. Mayorga, P.A. Raymond, J.M. Melack, S.C. Doney, S.R. Alin,

R.E. Aalto, and K. Yoo, 2011: Riverine coupling of biogeochemical cycles between

land, oceans, and atmosphere.Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 9(1),

53-60.

Ayers, J. and D. Dodman, 2010: Climate change adaptation and development: the

state of the debate. Progress in Development Studies, 10(2), 161-168.

Ayers, J. and T. Forsyth, 2009: Community-based adaptation to climate change:

strengthening resilience through development. Environment, 51(4), 22-31.

Ayers, J. and S. Huq, 2009: Supporting adaptation through development: what role for

official development assistance? Development Policy Review, 27(6), 675-692.

Ayers, J. and S. Huq, 2013: Adaptation, development and the community. In: Climate

Adaptation Futures [Palutikof, J., S.L. Boulter, A.J. Ash, M.S. Smith, M. Parry, M.

Waschka, and D. Guitart (eds.)]. 1

edn., Wiley-Blackwell, London, UK, pp. 203-

214.

Badjeck, M.C, E.H. Allison, A.S. Halls, and N.K. Dulvy, 2010: Impacts of climate

variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods. Marine Policy, 34(3), 375-

383.

Bagstad, K.J., K. Stapleton, and J.R. D’Agostino, 2007: Taxes, subsidies, and insurance

as drivers of United States coastal development.Ecological Economics,63(2-3),

285-298.

Baker, A.C., P.W. Glynn, and B. Riegl, 2008: Climate change and coral reef bleaching:

an ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future

outlook.Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 80(4), 435-471.

Baker-Austin, C., J.A. Trinanes, N.G.H. Taylor, R. Hartnell, A. Siitonen, and J. Martinez-

Urtaza, 2013: Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean

warming. Nature Climate Change, 3(1), 73-77.

Barange, M. and R.I. Perry, 2009: Physical and ecological impacts of climate change

relevant to marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture. In: Climate

Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture: Overview of Current

Scientific Knowledge [Cochrane, K., C. De Young, D. Soto, and T. Bahri (eds.)].

FAO Fisheries and AquacultureTechnical Paper No. 530, Food and Agricultural

Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy, pp. 7-106.

Barbier, E.B., E.W. Koch, B.R. Silliman, S.D. Hacker, E. Wolanski, J. Primavera, E.F.

Granek, S. Polasky, S. Aswani, L.A. Cramer, D.M. Stoms, C.J. Kennedy, D. Bael,

C.V. Kappel, G.M.E. Perillo, and D.J. Reed, 2008: Coastal ecosystem-based

management with nonlinear ecological functions and values. Science,

319(5861), 321-323.

Barbier, E.B., S.D. Hacker, C. Kennedy, E.W. Koch, A.C. Stier, and B.R. Silliman, 2011:

The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. Ecological Monographs,

81(2), 169-193.

Barlow, P. and E. Reichard, 2010: Saltwater intrusion in coastal regions of North

America. Hydrogeology Journal, 18(1), 247-260.

Barras, J.A., J.C. Bernier, and R.A. Morton, 2008: Land Area Change in Coastal

Louisiana: A Multidecadal Perspective (from 1956 to 2006). Pamphlet to

accompany U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3019, scale

1:250,000, USGS, Reston, VA, USA, 14 pp.

Barry, J.P., S. Widdicombe, and J. Hall-Spencer, 2011: Effects of ocean acidification

on marine biodiversity and ecosystem function. In: Ocean Acidification [Gattuso,

J.-P. and L. Hansson (eds.)]. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, pp. 192-209.

Barton, A., B. Hales, G.G. Waldbusser, C. Langdon, and R.A. Feely, 2012: The Pacific

oyster, Crassostrea gigas, shows negative correlation to naturally elevated

carbon dioxide levels: implications for near-term ocean acidification

effects.Limnology and Oceanography, 57(3), 698-710.

Baulcomb, C., 2011: Review of the Evidence Linking Climate Change to Human

Health for Eight Diseases of Tropical Importance. Land Economy Working Paper

No. 63, Scottish Agricultural College, Edinburgh, UK, 45 pp.

Beck, M.W.,R.D. Brumbaugh,L. Airoldi,A. Carranza,L.D. Coen,C.C.O. Defeo,G.J.

Edgar,B. Hancock,M.C. Kay,H.S. Lenihan,M.W. Luckenbach, C.L. Toropova,G.

Zhang, and X. Guo, 2011: Oyster reefs at risk and recommendations for

conservation, restoration and management. BioScience, 61(2), 107-116.

Becker, A., S. Inoue, M. Fischer, and B. Schwegler, 2012: Climate change impacts on

international seaports: knowledge, perceptions and planning efforts among

port administrators. Climatic Change, 110(1-2), 5-29.

Becker, A.H., M. Acciaro, R. Asariotis, E. Cabrera, L. Cretegny, P. Crist, M. Esteban, A.

Mather, S. Messner, S. Naruse, A.K.Y. Ng, S. Rahmstorf, M. Savonis, D.-W. Song,

V. Stenek, and A.F. Velegrakis, 2013: A note on climate change adaptation for

seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society. Climatic

Change, 120(4), 683-695.

Bedsworth, L.W. and E. Hanak, 2010: Adaptation to climate change. Journal of the

American Planning Association, 76(4), 477-495.

Bell, J.D., M. Kronen, A. Vunisea, W.J. Nash, G. Keeble, A. Demmke, S. Pontifex, and S.

Andréfouët, 2009: Planning the use of fish for food security in the Pacific.

Marine Policy, 33(1), 64-76.

Bell, J.D., A. Ganachaud, P.C. Gehrke, S.P. Griffiths, A.J. Hobday, O. Hoegh-Guldberg,

J.E. Johnson, R. Le Borgne, P. Lehodey, J.M. Lough, R.J. Matear, T.D. Pickering,

M.S. Pratchett, A.S. Gupta, I. Senina, and M. Waycott, 2013: Mixed responses

of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change. Nature Climate

Change, 3(6), 591-599.

Berkes, F. and C. Folke (eds.), 1998: Linking Social and Ecological Systems: Management

Practices and Social Mechanisms for Building Resilience. Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 459 pp.

Bernie, D., J. Lowe, T. Tyrrell, and O. Legge, 2010: Influence of mitigation policy on

ocean acidification. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(15), L15704, doi:10.1029/

2010GL043181.

Betts, R.A., O. Boucher, M. Collins, P.M. Cox, P.D. Falloon, N. Gedney, and D.L.

Hemming, 2007: Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant

responses to increasing carbon dioxide. Nature, 448(7157), 1037-1041.

Biesbroek, G.R., R.J. Swart, T.R. Carter, C. Cowan, T. Henrichs, H. Mela, M.D. Morecroft,

and D. Rey, 2010: Europe adapts to climate change: comparing National

Adaptation Strategies. Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy

Dimensions, 20(3), 440-450.

Biggs, D., 2011: Case Study: the Resilience of the Nature-based Tourism System on

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Report prepared for the Australian Department

of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities on behalf

of the State of the Environment 2011 Committee. Canberra, Australia, 32 pp.

Bird, E.C.F., 2000: Coastal Geomorphology: An Introduction. John Wiley & Sons,

Chichester, UK and Hoboken, NJ, USA, 411 pp.

Bjarnadottir, S., Y. Li, and M.G. Stewart, 2011: Social vulnerability index for coastal

communities at risk to hurricane hazard and a changing climate.Natural

Hazards, 59(2), 1055-1075.

Black, R., W.N. Adger, N.W. Arnell, S. Dercon, A. Geddes, and D.S.G. Thomas, 2011:

The effect of environmental change on human migration.Global Environmental

Change: Human and Policy Dimensions, 21(1), S3-S11.

Boateng, I., 2010: Spatial Planning in Coastal Regions: Facing the Impact of Climate

Change. FIG Publication No. 55, International Federation of Surveyors (FIG),

Copenhagen, Denmark, 60 pp.

Boateng, I., 2012: GIS assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change and

coastal adaption planning in Vietnam. Journal of Coastal Conservation, 16, 25-

36.

Boden, T., G. Marland, and B. Andres, 2011: Global CO

Emissions from Fossil-Fuel

Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2008. Carbon Dioxide

Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA,

emissions data available at: cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2008.ems.

Boehlert, G.W. and A.B. Gill, 2010: Environmental and ecological effects of ocean

renewable energy development. Oceanography, 23(2), 68-81.

Bollmann, M., T. Bosch, F. Colijn, R. Ebinghaus, R. Froese, K. Güssow, S. Khalilian, S.

Krastel, A. Körtzinger, M. Langenbuch, M. Latif, B. Matthiessen, F. Melzner, A.

Oschlies, S. Petersen, A. Proelß, M. Quaas, J. Reichenbach, T. Requate, T. Reusch,

P. Rosenstiel, J.O. Schmidt, K. Schrottke, H. Sichelschmidt, U. Siebert, R.

Soltwedel, U. Sommer, K. Stattegger, H. Sterr, R. Sturm, T. Treude, A. Vafeidis, C.

van Bernem, J. van Beusekom, R. Voss, M. Visbeck, M. Wahl, K. Wallmann, and

F. Weinberger, 2010: World Ocean Review 2010. Maribus, Hamburg, Germany,

232 pp.

Borges, A.V., 2005: Do we have enough pieces of the jigsaw to integrate CO

fluxes

in the coastal ocean? Estuaries, 28(1), 3-27.

Borges, A.V., 2011: Present day carbon dioxide fluxes in the coastal ocean and

possible feedbacks under global change. In: Oceans and the Atmospheric

Carbon Content [da Silva Duarte, P.M. and J.M. Santana-Casiano (eds.)].

Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 47-77.

Borges, A.V. and G. Abril, 2011: Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in estuaries.

In: Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science: Vol. 5: Biogeochemistry [Wolanski,

E. and D. McLusky(eds.)]. Academic Press, Waltham, MA, USA, pp. 119-161.

Borges, A.V. and N. Gypens, 2010: Carbonate chemistry in the coastal zone responds

more strongly to eutrophication than to ocean acidification.Limnology and

Oceanography, 55(1), 346-353.

398

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

Bormann, H., F. Ahlhorn, and T. Klenke, 2012: Adaptation of water management to

regional climate change in a coastal region – hydrological change vs. community

perception and strategies. Journal of Hydrology, 454-455, 64-75.

Borsje, B.W, B.K. van Wesenbeeck, F. Dekker, P. Paalvast, T.J. Bouma, M.M. van Katwijk,

and M. de Vries, 2011: How ecological engineering can serve in coastal

protection. Ecological Engineering, 37, 113-122.

Bosom, E. and J.A. Jimenez, 2011: Probabilistic coastal vulnerability assessment to

storms at regional scale–application to Catalan beaches (NW Mediterranean).

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(2), 475-484.

Bougherara, D., G. Grolleau, and N. Mzoughi, 2009: The ‘make or buy’ decision in private

environmental transactions. European Journal of Law Economics, 27, 79-99.

Bouwman, A.F., A.H.W. Beusen, and G. Billen, 2009: Human alteration of the global

nitrogen and phosphorus soil balances for the period 1970-2050. Global

Biogeochemical Cycles, 23(4), GB0A04, doi:10.1029/2009GB003576.

Breitburg, D.L., D.W. Hondorp, L.A. Davias, and R.J. Diaz, 2009: Hypoxia, nitrogen,

and fisheries: integrating effects across local and global landscapes. Annual

Reviews of Marine Science,1, 329-349.

Briggs, R.W., K. Sieh,A.J. Meltzner,D. Natawidjaja,J. Galetzka,B. Suwargadi, Y.

Hsu,M. Simons,N. Hananto,I. Suprihanto,D. Prayudi,J. Avouac, L. Prawirodirdjo,

andY. Bock, 2006: Deformation and slip along the Sunda Megathrust in the

Great 2005 Nias-Simeulue Earthquake. Science, 311(5769), 1897-1901.

Brooks, S.M. and T. Spencer, 2013: Importance of decadal scale variability in shoreline

response: examples from soft rock cliffs, East Anglian coast, UK.Journal of

Coastal Conservation, doi:10.1007/s11852-013-0279-7.

Brown, B.E., R.P. Dunne, N. Phongsuwan, and P.J. Somerfield, 2011: Increased sea

level promotes coral cover on shallow reef flats in the Andaman Sea, eastern

Indian Ocean. Coral Reefs, 30, 867-878.

Brown, K., E.L. Tompkins, and W.N. Adger, 2002: Making Waves: Integrating Coastal

Conservation and Development. Earthscan, London, UK, 164 pp.

Brown, S., M. Barton, and R.J. Nicholls, 2013: Shoreline response of eroding soft cliffs

due to hard defenses. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers:

Maritime Engineering, doi:10.1680/11.00026.

Bruun, P., 1962: Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion. Journal of the Waterways

and Harbors Division: Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers,

88, 117-130.

Buddemeier, R.W. and S.V. Smith, 1988: Coral reef growth in an era of rapidly rising

sea level: predictions and suggestions for long-term research.Coral Reefs, 7,

51-56.

Bunce, M., K. Brown, and S. Rosendo, 2010: Policy misfits, climate change and cross-

scale vulnerability in coastal Africa: how development projects undermine

resilience.Environmental Science and Policy, 13(6), 485-497.

Burch, S., 2010: Transforming barriers into enablers of action on climate change:

insights from three municipal case studies in British Columbia, Canada. Global

Environmental Change, 20(2), 287-297.

Burke, L.M., K. Reytar, M. Spalding, and A. Perry, 2011:Reefs at Risk Revisited.World

Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USA, 114 pp.

Burrows, M.T., D.S. Schoeman, L.B. Buckley, P. Moore, E.S. Poloczanska, K.M. Brander,

C. Brown, J.F. Bruno, C.M. Duarte, B.S. Halpern, J. Holding, C.V. Kappel, W.

Kiessling, M.I. O’Connor, J.M. Pandolfi, C. Parmesan, F.B. Schwing, W.J. Sydeman,

and A.J. Richardson, 2011: The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial

ecosystems. Science, 334(6056), 652-655.

Cai, W., X. Hu, W. Huang, M.C. Murrell, J.C. Lehrter, S.E. Lohrenz, W. Chou, W. Zhai, J.T.

Hollibaugh, Y. Wang, P. Zhao, X. Guo, K. Gundersen, M. Dai, and G. Gong, 2011:

Acidification of subsurface coastal waters enhanced by eutrophication.Nature

Geoscience, 4, 766-770.

Callaway, R., A.P. Shinn, S.E. Grenfell, J.E. Bron, G. Burnell, E.J. Cook, M. Crumlish, S.

Culloty, K. Davidson, R.P. Ellis, J. Flynn, C. Fox, D.M. Green, G.C. Hays, A.D.

Hughes, E. Johnston, C.D. Lowe, I. Lupatsch, S. Malham, A.F. Mendzil, T. Nickell,

T. Pickerell, A.F. Rowley, M.S. Stanley, D.R. Tocher, J.F. Turnbull, G. Webb, E. Wootton,

and R.J. Shields, 2012: Review of climate change impacts on marine aquaculture

in the UK and Ireland. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems,

22(3),389-421.

Cambers, G., 2009: Caribbean beach changes and climate change adaptation.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management, 12, 168-176.

Camoin, G.F., C. Seard, P. Deschamps, J.M. Webster, E. Abbey, J.C. Braga, Y. Iryu, N.

Durand, E. Bard, B. Hamelin, Y. Yokoyama, A.L. Thomas, G.M. Henderson, and P.

Dussouillez, 2012: Reef response to sea-level and environmental changes during

the last deglaciation: integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 310, Tahiti

Sea Level.Geology, 40(7), 643-646.

Campbell, A., V. Kapos, A. Chenery, N. Doswald, S.I. Kahn, M. Rashid, J. Scharlemann,

and B. Dickson, 2009. The linkages between biodiversity and climate change

adaptation – a review of the recent scientific literature. In : Review of the

Literature on the Links between Biodiversity and Climate Change: Impacts,

Adaptation and Mitigation [Campbell, A., V. Kapos, J.P.W. Scharlemann, P. Bubb,

A. Chenery, L. Coad, B. Dickson, N. Doswald, M.S.I. Khan, F. Kershaw, and M.

Rashid (eds.)]. Technical Series No. 42, Secretariat of the Convention on

Biological Diversity, Montreal, Canada, pp. 49-87.

Canu, D.M., C. Solidoro, G. Cossarini, and F. Giorgi, 2010: Effect of global change on

bivalve rearing activity and the need for adaptive management. Climate

Research, 42(1), 13-26.

Canuel, E.A., S.S. Cammer, H.A. McIntosh, and C.R. Pondell, 2012: Climate change

impacts on the organic carbon cycle at the land-ocean interface.Annual Review

of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 40(1), 685-711.

CCSP, 2009: Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region

[Titus, J.G. (Coordinating Lead Author), K.E. Anderson, D.R. Cahoon, D.B. Gesch,

S.K. Gill, B.T. Gutierrez, E.R. Thieler, and S.J.Williams (Lead Authors)]. Report by the

U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and the Subcommittee on Global

Change Research, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, 320 pp.

Celliers, L., S. Rosendo, I. Coetzee, and G. Daniels, 2013: Pathways of integrated

coastal management from national policy to local implementation: enabling

climate change adaptation. Marine Policy, 39, 72-86.

Central Disaster Management Council, 2011: Report of the Committee for

Technical Investigation on Countermeasures for Earthquakes and Tsunamis

Based on the Lessons Learned from the “2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku

Earthquake”. Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, Tokyo, Japan, 46 pp.,

www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/chubou/higashinihon/Report.pdf

Chaibi, M. and M. Sedrati, 2009: Coastal erosion induced by human activities: the

case of two embayed beaches on the Moroccan coast. Journal of Coastal

Research, SI 56, 1184-1188.

Chen, C.-C.,B. McCarl, and C.-C.Chang, 2012: Climate change, sea level rise and

rice: global market implications. Climatic Change, 110(3-4),543-560.

Chen, C.-T.A. and A.V. Borges, 2009: Reconciling opposing views on carbon cycling

in the coastal ocean: continental shelves as sinks and near-shore ecosystems

as sources of atmospheric CO

. Deep-Sea Research II, 56, 578-590.

Cheong, S.-M., B. Silliman, P.P. Wong, B. van Wesenbeeck, C.-K. Kim, and G. Guannel,

2013: Coastal adaptation with ecological engineering. Nature Climate Change,

3(9), 787-791.

Cheung, W.W.L., V.W.Y. Lam, J.L. Sarmiento, K. Kearney, R. Watson, and D. Pauly, 2009:

Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios.

Fish and Fisheries, 10, 235-251.

Cheung, W.W.L., V.W.Y Lam, J.L. Sarmiento, K. Kearney, R. Watson, D. Zeller, and D.

Pauly, 2010: Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in

the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology, 16, 24-35.

Chisolm, E.I. and J.C. Matthews, 2012: Impact of hurricanes and flooding on buried

infrastructure. Leadership and Management in Engineering, 12(3), 151-156.

Chou, W.-C., J.-L. Wu, Y.-C. Wang, H. Huang, F.-C. Sung, and C.-Y. Chuang, 2010:

Modeling the impact of climate variability on diarrhea-associated diseases in

Taiwan (1996-2007). Science of The Total Environment, 409(1), 43-51.

Christie, P., K. Lowry, A.T. White, E.G. Oracion, L. Sievanen, R.S. Pomeroy, R.B. Pollnac,

J.M. Patlis, and R.-L.V. Eisma, 2005: Key findings from a multidisciplinary

examination of integrated coastal management process sustainability. Ocean

and Coastal Management, 48 (3-6), 468-483.

Chu, Z.X., X.G. Sun, S.K. Zhai, and K.H. Xu, 1996: Changing pattern of accretion/

erosion of the modern Yellow River (Huanghe) subaerial delta, China: based

on remote sensing images. Marine Geology, 227, 13-30.

Cinner, J.E., T.R. McClanahan, N.A.J. Graham, T.M. Daw, J. Maina, S.M. Stead, A.

Wamukota, K. Brown, and Ö. Bodin, 2012: Vulnerability of coastal communities

to key impacts of climate change on coral reef fisheries. Global Environmental

Change, 22(1), 12-20.

Cloern, J.E. and A.D. Jassby, 2008: Complex seasonal patterns of primary producers

at the land-sea interface.Ecology Letters, 11(12), 1294-1303.

Colberg, F. and K.L. McInnes, 2012: The impact of storminess changes on extreme

sea levels over southern Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans,

117(C8), C08001, doi:10.1029/2012JC007919.

Comeaux, R.S., M.A. Allison, and T.S. Bianchi, 2011: Mangrove expansion in the Gulf

of Mexico with climate change: implications for wetland health and resistance

to rising sea levels. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 96(1), 81-95.

399

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

Committee on Adaptation Strategy for Global Warming in the Coastal Zone,

2011: Manual for Adapting to Global Warming Concurrently with Renewal of

Coastal Structures (interim version). Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,

Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Tokyo, Japan, 50 pp. (in Japanese).

Cooper, J.A.G. and O.H. Pilkey, 2004: Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to

abandon the Bruun Rule. Global and Planetary Change, 43(3-4), 157-171.

Cooper, T.F., R.A. O’Leary, and J.M. Lough, 2012: Growth of Western Australian corals

in the Anthropocene.Science,335(6068), 593-596.

Costanza, R., F.H. Sklar, and M.L. White, 1990: Modeling coastal landscape dynamics.

Bioscience, 40(2), 91-107.

Couce, E., P.J. Irvine, L.J. Gregorie, A. Ridgwell, and E.J. Hendy, 2013: Tropical coral

reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO

world. Geophysical Research Letters,

40,1799-1804.

Coumou, D. and S. Rahmstorf, 2012: A decade of weather extremes. Nature Climate

Change, 2(7), 491-496.

Craft, C., J. Clough, J. Ehman, S. Joye, R. Park, S. Pennings, H. Guo, and M. Machmuller,

2009: Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh

ecosystem services. Frontiers in the Ecology and Environment, 7, 73-78.

Crain, C.M., B.S. Halpern, M.W. Beck, and C.V. Kappel, 2009: Understanding and

managing human threats to the coastal marine environment. Year in Ecology

and Conservation Biology, 1162, 39-62.

Dai A., T. Qian, K.E. Trenberth, and J.D. Milliman, 2009: Changes in continental

freshwater discharge from 1948 to 2004. Journal of Climate, 22, 2773-2792.

Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, C. Meisner, D. Wheeler, and J. Yan, 2009: The impact of sea

level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. Climatic Change,

93(3-4), 379-388.

Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, S. Murray, and D. Wheeler, 2011: Exposure of developing

countries to sea-level rise and storm surges. Climatic Change, 106, 567-579.

Davis Jr., R.A. and D.M. FitzGerald, 2004: Beaches and Coasts. Blackwell Publishing,

Oxford, UK, 432 pp.

Daw, T., W.N. Adger, and K. Brown, 2009: Climate change and capture fisheries:

potential impacts, adaptation and mitigation. In: Climate Change Implications

for Fisheries and Aquaculture: Overview of Current Scientific Knowledge

[Cochrane, K., C. De Young, D. Soto, and T. Bahri (eds.)]. FAO Fisheries and

Aquaculture Technical Paper No 530, Food and Agricultural Organization of the

United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy, pp.107-150.

Dawson, R.J., M.E. Dickson, R.J. Nicholls, J.W. Hall, M.J.A. Walkden, P.K. Stansby, M.

Mokrech, J. Richards, J. Zhou, J. Milligan, A. Jordan, S. Pearson, J. Rees, P.D. Bates,

S. Koukoulas, and A.R. Watkinson, 2009: Integrated analysis of risks of coastal

flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change. Climatic

Change,95, 249-288.

Day, J.W. and L. Giosan, 2008: Survive or subside? Nature Geoscience, 1, 156-157.

Day, J.W., C. Ibáñez, F. Scarton, D. Pont, P. Hensel, J. Day, and R. Lane, 2011:

Sustainability of Mediterranean deltaic and lagoon wetlands with sea-level

rise: the importance of river input. Estuaries and Coasts, 34, 483-493.

De Bie, M.J.M., J.J. Middelburg, M. Starink, and H.J. Laanbroek, 2002: Factors

controlling nitrous oxide at the microbial community and estuarine scale.

Marine Ecology Progress Series, 240, 1-9.

De Sherbinin, A., M. Castro, F. Gemenne, M.M. Cernea, S. Adamo, P.M. Fearnside, G.

Krieger, S. Lahmani, A. Oliver-Smith, A. Pankhurst, T. Scudder, B. Singer, Y. Tan, G.

Wannier, P. Boncour, C. Ehrhart, G. Hugo, B. Pandey, and G. Shi, 2011: Preparing

for resettlement associated with climate change. Science, 334(6055), 456-457.

De Silva, S.S. and D. Soto, 2009: Climate change and aquaculture: potential impacts,

adaptation and mitigation. In: Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and

Aquaculture: Overview of Current Scientific Knowledge [Cochrane, K., C. De

Young, D. Soto, and T. Bahri (eds.)]. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical

Paper No. 530, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO),

Rome, Italy, pp. 151-212.

De’ath, G., J.M. Lough, and K.E. Fabricius, 2009: Declining coral calcification on the

Great Barrier Reef.Science, 323(5910), 116-119.

De’ath, G., K.E. Fabricius, H. Sweatman, and M. Puotinen, 2012: The 27-year declines

of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes. Proceedings of the

National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.Anited States of America,109(44),

17995-17999.

Debernard, J.B. and L.P. Røed, 2008: Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in

the Northern Seas: a revisit. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography,

60(3), 427-438.

Delta Commission, 2008: Working Together with Water: A Living Land Builds for its

Future: Summary and Conclusions. Deltacommissie, The Hague, Netherlands, 23 pp.

Dev, P., 2013: Waterlogging through soil-less agriculture as a climate resilient

adaptation option. In: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management [Filho,

W.L. (ed.)]. Part 4, Climate Change Management Series, Springer-Verlag, Berlin

Heidleberg, Germany, pp. 681-692.

Diaz, R.J. and R. Rosenberg, 2008: Spreading dead zones and consequences for

marine ecosystems.Science, 321(5891), 926-929.

Díaz-Almela, E., N. Marbà, and C.M. Duarte, 2007: Consequences of Mediterranean

warming events in seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) flowering records. Global

Change Biology, 13, 224-235.

Díaz-Almela, E., N. Marbà, R. Martínez, R. Santiago, and C.M. Duarte, 2009: Seasonal

dynamics of Posidonia oceanica in Magalluf Bay (Mallorca, Spain): temperature

effects on seagrass mortality. Limnology and Oceanography, 54, 2170-2182.

Dietz, T., E. Ostrom, and P.C. Stern, 2003: The struggle to govern the commons.

Science, 302(5652), 1907-1912.

Dodman, D. and D. Mitlin, 2011: Challenges to community-based adaptation. Journal

of International Development, 25(5), 640-659.

Dokka, R.K., 2011:The role of deep processes in late 20

century subsidence of New

Orleans and coastal areas of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Journal of

Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,116, B06403, doi:10.1029/2010JB008008.

Doney, S.C., N. Mahowald, I. Lima, R.A. Feely, F.T. Mackenzie, J. Lamarque, and P.J.

Rasch, 2007: Impact of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur

deposition on ocean acidification and the inorganic carbon system. Proceedings

of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,104(37),

14580-14585.

Dove, S.G., D.I. Kline, O. Pantos, F.E. Angly, G.W. Tyson, and O. Hoegh-Guldberg, 2013:

Reef calcification versus decalcification: the difference between “reduced” and

“business-as-usual” CO

emission scenarios. Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(38), 15342-15347.

Duarte, C.M., J.J. Middelburg, and N. Caraco, 2005: Major role of marine vegetation

on the oceanic carbon cycle. Biogeosciences,2, 1-8.

Duarte, C.M., I.E. Hendriks, T.S. Moore, Y.S. Olsen, A. Steckbauer, L. Ramajo, J.

Carstensen, J.A. Trotter, and M. McCulloch, 2013a: Is ocean acidification an

open-ocean syndrome? Understanding anthropogenic impacts on marine pH.

Estuaries and Coasts,36(2), 221-236.

Duarte, C.M., I.J. Losada, I.E. Hendriks, I. Mazarrasa, and N. Marbá, 2013b: The role

of coastal plant communities for climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Nature Climate Change, 3, 961-968.

Duke, N.C., M.C. Ball, and J.C. Ellison, 1998: Factors influencing biodiversity and

distributional gradients in mangroves. Global Ecology and Biogeography

Letters, 7(1), 27-47.

Dullo, W.C., 2005: Coral growth and reef growth: a brief review.Facies, 51(1-4), 33-48.

Dulvy, N.K., S.I. Rogers, S. Jennings, V. Stelzenmüller, S.R. Dye, and H.R. Skjoldal, 2008:

Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic

indicator of warming seas. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45(4), 1029-1039.

Eakin, C. M., J.A. Morgan, S.F. Heron, T.B. Smith, G. Liu, L. Alvarez-Filip, B. Baca, E.

Bartels, C. Bastidas, C. Bouchon, M. Brandt, A.W. Bruckner, L. Bunkley-Williams,

A. Cameron, B.D. Causey, M. Chiappone, T.R.L. Christensen, M.J.C. Crabbe, O.

Day, E. de la Guardia, G. Diaz-Pulido, D. DiResta, D.L. Gil-Agudelo, D.S. Gilliam,

R.N. Ginsburg, S. Gore, H.M. Guzmán, J.C. Hendee, E.A. Hernández-Delgado, E.

Husain, C.F.G. Jeffrey, R.J. Jones, E. Jordán-Dahlgren, L.S. Kaufman, D.I. Kline,

P.A. Kramer, J.C. Lang, D. Lirman, J. Mallela, C. Manfrino, J.-P. Maréchal, K. Marks,

J. Mihaly, W.J. Miller, E.M. Mueller, E.M. Muller, C.A.O. Toro, H.A. Oxenford, D.

Ponce-Taylor, N. Quinn, K.B. Ritchie, S. Rodríguez, A.R. Ramírez, S. Romano, J.F.

Samhouri, J.A. Sánchez, G.P. Schmahl, B.V. Shank, W.J. Skirving, S.C.C. Steiner,

E. Villamizar, S.M. Walsh, C. Walter, E. Weil, E.H. Williams, K.W. Roberson, and

Y. Yusuf, 2010: Caribbean corals in crisis: record thermal stress, bleaching,

and mortality in 2005. PLoS ONE, 5(11), e13969, doi:10.1371/

journal.pone.0013969.

Ekstrom, J.A., S.C. Moser, and M. Torn, 2011: Barriers to Adaptation: A Diagnostic

Framework. Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program Final Project

Report, Contract No. CEC-500- 2011-004, California Energy Commission (CEC),

Sacramento, CA, USA, 73 pp.

Engineers Australia, 2012: Climate Change Adaptation Guidelines in Coastal

Management and Planning. The National Committee on Coastal and Ocean

Engineering, Engineers Australia, EA Books, Engineers Media, Crow’s Nest, New

South Wales, Australia, 133 pp.

Environment Agency, 2012: Managing Flood Risk through London and the Thames

Estuary: TE2100 Plan. Thames Estuary 2100, Environment Agency, London, UK,

230 pp.

400

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

EPA, 2009: Synthesis of Adaptation Options for Coastal Areas. U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency (EPA), Climate Ready Estuaries Program, Washington DC,

USA, 32 pp.

Erdner, D.L., J. Dyble, M.L. Parsons, R.C. Stevens, K.A. Hubbard, M.L. Wrabel, S.K.

Moore, K.A, Lefebvre, D.M. Anderson, P. Bienfang, R.R. Bidigare, M.S. Parker, P.

Moeller, L.E. Brand, and V.L. Trainer, 2008: Centers for Oceans and Human Health:

a unified approach to the challenge of harmful algal blooms. Environmental

Health, 7(Suppl 2), doi:10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S2.

Ericson, J.P., C.J. Vorosmarty, S.L. Dingman, L.G.Ward, and M. Meybeck, 2006:

Effective sea-level rise and deltas: causes of change and human dimension

implications. Global Planet Change, 50, 63-82.

Espinosa-Romero, M.J., K.M.A. Chan, T. McDaniels, and D.M. Dalmer, 2011:

Structuring decision-making for ecosystem-based management. Marine Policy,

35(5), 575-583.

Esteban, M., C. Webersik, and T. Shibayama, 2010: Methodology for the estimation

of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity

in Japan. Climate Change, 102(3), 555-578.

Esteban, M., N.D. Thao, H. Tagaki, and T. Shibayama, 2012: Increase in port downtime

and damage in Vietnam due to a potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity.

In: Climate Change and the Sustainable Use of Water Resources [Filho, W.L.

(ed.)]. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, Germany, pp. 101-125.

Falaleeva, M., C. O’Mahony, S. Gray, M. Desmond, J. Gault, and V. Cummins, 2011:

Towards climate adaptation and coastal governance in Ireland: integrated

architecture for effective management?Marine Policy,35(6), 784-793.

FAO, 2010: The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. Food and Agricultural

Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy, 197 pp.

FAO, 2012: The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. Food and Agricultural

Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy, 209 pp.

Faulkner, L. and I. Ali, 2012: Moving Towards Transformed Resilience: Assessing

Community-based Adaptation in Bangladesh. ActionAid Bangladesh, Action

Research for Community Adaptation in Bangladesh, International Centre for

Climate Change and Development, and Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies,

Dhaka, Bangladesh, 45 pp.

Fazey, I., J.G.P. Gamarra, J. Fischer, M.S. Reed, L.C. Stringer, and M. Christie, 2010:

Adaptation strategies for reducing vulnerability to future environmental

change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 8(8), 414-422.

Feely, R.A., C.L. Sabine, J. Hernandez-Ayon, D. Ianson, and B. Hales, 2008: Evidence

for upwelling of corrosive “acidified” water onto the continental shelf.

Science, 320(5882), 1490-1492.

Fergurson, G. and T. Gleeson, 2012: Vulnerability of coastal aquifers to groundwater

use and climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2, 342-345.

Fernández, C., 2011: The retreat of large brown seaweeds on the north coast of

Spain: the case of Saccorhiza polyschides. European Journal of Phycology, 46,

352-360.

Few, R., K. Brown, and E.L. Tompkins, 2007: Climate change and coastal management

decisions: insights from Christchurch Bay, UK.Coastal Management, 35(2-3),

255-270.

Findlay, H.S., M.T. Burrows, M.A. Kendall, J.I. Spicer, and S. Widdicombe, 2010: Can

ocean acidification affect population dynamics of the barnacle Semibalanus

balanoides at its southern range edge?Ecology, 91(10), 2931-2940.

Folke, C., T. Hahn, P. Olsson, and J. Norberg, 2005: Adaptive governance of social-

ecological systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 30, 441-473.

Foufoula-Georgiou, E., J. Syvitski, C. Paola, C.T. Hoanh, P. Tuong, C. Vörösmarty, H.

Kremer, E. Brondizio, Y. Saito, and R. Twilley, 2011: International Year of

Deltas 2013: a proposal. Eos, Transactions of American Geophysical Union, 92,

340-341.

Frazier, T.G., N. Wood, and B. Yarnal, 2010: Stakeholder perspectives on land-use

strategies for adapting to climate-change-enhanced coastal hazards. Applied

Geography, 30(4), 506-517.

Fujii, T. and D. Raffaelli, 2008: Sea-level rise, expected environmental changes and

responses of intertidal benthic macrofauna in the Humber estuary, UK.Marine

Ecology Progress Series, 371, 23-35.

Galloway, J.N., F.J. Dentener, D.G. Capone, E.W. Boyer, R.W. Howarth, S.P. Seitzinger,

G.P. Asner, C.C. Cleveland, P.A. Green, E.A. Holland, D.M. Karl, A.F. Michaels, J.H.

Porter, A.R. Townsend, and C.J. Vorosmarty, 2004: Nitrogen cycles: past, present,

and future. Biogeochemistry, 70(2), 153-226.

Ganachaud, A., A.S. Gupta, J. Brown, K. Evans, C. Maes, L. Muir, and F. Graham, 2013:

Projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries,

Climatic Change, 119(1), 163-179.

Gardner, T. A., I.M. Cote, J.A. Gill, A. Grant, and A.R. Watkinson, 2003: Long-term

region-wide declines in Caribbean corals. Science, 301(5635), 958-960.

Garrabou, J., R. Coma, N. Bensoussan, M. Bally, P. Chevaldonné, M. Cigliano, D. Diaz,

J.G. Harmelin, M.C. Gambi, D.K. Kersting, J.B. Ledoux, C. Lejeusne, C. Linares, C.

Marschal, T. Pérez, M. Ribes, J.C. Romano, E. Serrano, N. Teixido, O. Torrents, M.

Zabala, F. Zuberer, and C. Cerrano, 2009: Mass mortality in Northwestern

Mediterranean rocky benthic communities: effects of the 2003 heat wave.

Global Change Biology, 15, 1090-1103.

GBRMPA (Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority), 2012: Great Barrier Reef Climate

Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2012-2017. Great Barrier Reef

Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA), Townsville, QLD, Australia, 23 pp.

Gedney, N., P.M. Cox, R.A. Betts, O. Boucher, C. Huntingford, and P.A. Stott, 2006:

Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records.

Nature, 439(7078), 835-838.

Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, 2011: Crustal movements in the

Tohoku District. In: Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake

Prediction (CCEP), Vol. 86. pp. 184-272 (in Japanese).

Gero, A., K. Meheux, and D. Dominey-Howes, 2011: Integrating community based

disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the

Pacific. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 101-113.

Gilbert, D., N.N. Rabalais, R.J. D’az, J. Zhang, 2010: Evidence for greater oxygen

decline rates in the coastal ocean than in the open ocean. Biogeosciences, 7(7),

2283-2296.

Gilman, E., J.C. Ellison, V. Jungblut, H. Van Lavieren, L. Wilson, F. Areki, G. Brighouse,

J. Bungitak, E. Dus, M. Henry, M. Kilman, E. Matthews, I. Sauni Jr., N. Teariki-

Ruatu, S. Tukia, and K. Yuknavage, 2006: Adapting to Pacific Island mangrove

responses to sea level rise and climate change. Climate Research, 32(3), 161-

176.

Giridharan, R., S.S.Y. Lau, S. Ganesan, and B. Givoni, 2007: Urban design factors

influencing heat island intensity in high-rise high-density environments of Hong

Kong. Building and Environment, 42(10), 3669-3684.

Gomez, N., J.X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P.U. Clark, 2010: Sea level as a stabilizing

factor for marine-ice-sheet grounding lines. Nature Geosciences, 3(12), 850-853.

González-Riancho, P., M. Sano, R. Medina, O. Garcia-Aguilar, and J. Areizaga, 2009:

A contribution to the implementation of ICZM in the Mediterranean developing

countries. Ocean and Coastal Management, 52, 545-558.

Gornitz, V., 1991: Global coastal hazards from future sea level rise. Global and

Planetary Change, 3(4), 379-398.

Grantham, B.A., F. Chan, K.J. Nielsen, D.S. Fox, J.A. Barth, A. Huyer, J. Lubchenco, and

B.A. Menge, 2004: Upwelling-driven nearshore hypoxia signals ecosystem and

oceanographic changes in the northeast Pacific.Nature, 429(6993), 749-754.

Greenstein, B.J. and J.M. Pandolfi, 2008: Escaping the heat: range shifts of reef coral

taxa in coastal Western Australia.Global Change Biology, 14(3), 513-528.

Greiner, J.T., K.J. McGlathery, J. Gunnell, and B.A. McKee, 2013: Seagrass restoration

enhances “blue carbon” sequestration in coastal waters. PLoS ONE, 8(8),

e72469, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072469.

Grieneisen, M.L. and M. Zhang, 2011: The current status of climate change research.

Nature Climate Change, 1(2), 72-73.

Gutierrez, B.T., N.G. Plant, and E.R. Thieler, 2011: A Bayesian network to predict

coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116,

F02009, doi: 10.1029/2010JF001891.

Haasnoot, M., J.H. Kwakkel, W.E. Walker, and J. ter Maat, 2013: Dynamic adaptive

policy pathways: a method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain

world. Global Environmental Change, 23(2), 485-498.

Hadley, D., 2009: Land use and the coastal zone. Land Use Policy, 265, S198-S203.

Hadwen, W.L., S.J. Capon, E. Poloczanska, W. Rochester, T. Martin, L. Bay, M. Pratchett,

J. Green, B. Cook, A. Berry, A. Lolonde, and S. Fahey, 2011: Climate Change

Responses and Adaptation Pathways in Australian Coastal Ecosystems:

Synthesis Report. Report for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research

Facility, Gold Coast, Australia, 359 pp.

Hagedorn, K., K. Artz, and U. Peters, 2002: Institutional arrangements for environmental

co-operatives: a conceptual framework. In: Environmental Cooperation and

Institutional Change: Theories and Policies for European Agriculture [Hagedorn,

K. (ed.)]. New Horizons in Environmental Economics Series [Oates, W. and H.

Folmer (Series eds.)]. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton,

MA, USA, pp. 3-25.

Haigh, I., R. Nicholls, and N. Wells, 2010: Assessing changes in extreme sea levels:

application to the English Channel, 1900-2006. Continental Shelf Research,

30(9), 1042-1055.

401

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

Hallegatte, S., 2009: Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change.Global

Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions, 19(2), 240-247.

Hallegatte, S., C. Green, R.J. Nicholls, and J. Corfee-Morlot, 2013: Future flood losses

in major coastal cities. Nature Climate Change, 3, 802-806.

Hallegraeff, G.M., 2010: Ocean climate change, phytoplankton community responses

and harmful algal blooms: a formidable predictive challenge. Journal of Phycology,

46(2), 220-235.

Haller, I., N. Stybel, S. Schumacher, and M. Mossbauer, 2011: Will beaches be enough?

Future changes for coastal tourism at the German Baltic Sea. Journal of Coastal

Research, SI 61, 70-80.

Halpern, B.S., S. Walbridge, K.A. Selkoe, C.V. Kappel, F. Micheli, C. D’Agrosa, J.F. Bruno,

K.S. Casey, C. Ebert, H.E. Fox, R. Fujita, D. Heinemann, H.S. Lenihan, E. Madin,

M.T. Perry, E.R. Selig, M. Spalding, R. Steneck, and R. Watson, 2008: A global

map of human impact on marine ecosystems.Science, 319(5865), 948-952.

Hanak, E. and G. Moreno, 2012: California coastal management with a changing

climate. Climatic Change, 111, 45-73.

Handmer, J., Y. Honda, Z.W. Kundzewicz, N. Arnell, G. Benito, J. Hatfield, I.F. Mohamed,

P. Peduzzi, S. Wu, B. Sherstyukov, K. Takahashi, and Z. Yan, 2012: Changes in

impacts of climate extremes: human systems and ecosystems. In: Managing

the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change

Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker,

D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K.

Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 231-290.

Hanson, S. and R.J. Nicholls, 2012: Extreme flood events and port cities through the

twenty-first century. In: Maritime Transport and the Climate Change Challenge

[Asariotis, R. and H. Benemara (eds)]. Earthscan/Routledge, New York, NY, USA,

243 pp.

Hanson, S., R. Nicholls, N. Ranger, S. Hallegatte, J. Dorfee-Morlot, C. Herweijer, and J.

Chateau, 2011: A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate

extremes. Climatic Change, 104(1), 89-111.

Hapke, C., E. Himmelstoss, M. Kratzmann, J. List, and E.R. Thierler, 2011: National

Assessment of Shoreline: Historical Shoreline Changes along the New England

and Mid-Atlantic Coasts. United States Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File

Report 2010-1118, USGS, Reston, VA, USA, 57 pp.

Haq, M.Z., M. Robbani, M. Ali, Mainul Hasan, Mahmudul Hasan, J. Uddin, M. Begum,

J. Teixeira da Silva, X.-Y. Pan, and R. Karim, 2012: Damage and management of

cyclone Sidr-affected homestead tree plantations: a case study from Patuakhali,

Bangladesh.Natural Hazards,64(2), 1305-1322.

Hare, J.A., M.A. Alexander, M.J. Fogarty, E.H. Williams, and J.D. Scott, 2010: Forecasting

the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate-population

model. Ecological Applications, 20, 452-464.

Hares, A., J. Dickinson, and K. Wilkes, 2009: Climate change and the air travel decisions

of UK tourists. Journal of Transport Geography, 18, 466-473.

Harley, C.D.G., 2008: Tidal dynamics, topographic orientation, and temperature-

mediated mass mortalities on rocky shores. Marine Ecology Progress Series,

371, 37-46.

Harley, C.D.G., 2011: Climate change, keystone predation, and biodiversity loss.

Science, 334(6059), 1124-1127.

Harley, M.D., I.L. Turner, A.D. Short, and R. Ranasinghe, 2010: Interannual variability

and controls of the Sydney wave climate. International Journal of Climatology,

30, 1322-1335.

Harper, B., T. Hardy, L. Mason, and R. Fryar, 2009: Developments in storm tide

modelling and risk assessment in the Australian region, Natural Hazards, 51(1),

225-238.

Hashizume, M., B. Armstrong, S. Hajat, Y. Wagatsuma, A.S.G. Faruque, T. Hayashi, and

D.A. Sack, 2007: Association between climate variability and hospital visits for

non-cholera diarrhoea in Bangladesh: effects and vulnerable groups.

International Journal of Epidemiology, 36, 1030-1037.

Haslett, S.K., 2009: Coastal Systems. 2

edn., Routledge, Abingdon, UK, 216 pp.

Hawkins, S.J., P.J. Moore, M.T. Burrows, E. Poloczanska, N. Mieszkowska, R. Herbert,

S.R. Jenkins, R.C. Thompson, M.J. Genner, and A.J. Southward, 2008: Complex

interactions in a rapidly changing world: responses of rocky shore communities

to recent climate change.Climate Research, 37(2-3), 123-133.

Hay, J., 2012: Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Pacific:

An Institutional and Policy Analysis. United Nations Development Programme

(UNDP) and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), Suva,

Fiji, 76 pp.

Headland, J.R., D. Trivedi, and R.H. Boudreau, 2011: Coastal structures and sea level

rise: adaptive management approach. In: Coastal Engineering Practice [Magoon,

O.T., R.M. Nobel, D.D. Treadwell, and Y.C. Kim (eds.)]. Proceedings of the 2011

Conference on Coastal Engineering Practice, held in San Diego, California,

August 21-24, 2011, American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, VA, USA, pp.

449-459.

Helmuth, B., C. Harley, P.M. Halpin, D. Oandapos M, G.E. Hofmann, and C.A.

Blanchette, 2002: Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal

stress.Science, 298(5595), 1015-1017.

Helmuth, B., N. Mieszkowska, P. Moore, and S.J. Hawkins, 2006: Living on the edge

of two changing worlds: forecasting the responses of rocky intertidal ecosystems

to climate change.Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 37,

373-404.

Hemer, M.A., Y. Fan, N. Mori, A. Semedo, and X.L. Wang, 2013: Projected changes in

wave climate from a multi-model ensemble. Nature Climate Change, 3, 471-476.

Hemminga, M.A. and C.M. Duarte 2000: Seagrass Ecology. Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 298 pp.

Hendriks, I.E., C.M. Duarte, and M. Álvarez, 2010: Vulnerability of marine biodiversity

to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Estuarine

Science, 86, 157-164.

Hiddink, J.G. and R. Hofstede, 2008: Climate induced increases in species richness

of marine fishes. Global Change Biology, 14, 453-460.

Hinkel, J., 2011: “Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: towards a

clarification of the science policy interface. Global Environmental Change, 21,

198-208.

Hinkel, J. and R.J.T. Klein, 2009: The DINAS-COAST project: Developing a tool for

the dynamic and interactive assessment of coastal vulnerability. Global

Environmental Change, 19(3), 384-395.

Hinkel, J., S. Bisaro, T. Downing, M.E. Hofmann, K. Lonsdale, D. Mcevoy, and J.D.

Tabara, 2010: Learning to adapt: re-framing climate change adaptation. In:

Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and

Mitigation Strategies [Hulme, M. and H. Neufeldt (ed.)]. Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 113-134.

Hinkel, J., S. Brown, L. Exner, R.J. Nicholls, A.T. Vafeidis, and A.S. Kebede, 2011: Sea-

level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an

application of DIVA. Regional Environmental Change, 12, 207-224.

Hinkel, J., D.P. van Vuuren, R.J. Nicholls, and R.J.T. Klein, 2013: The effects of mitigation

and adaptation on coastal impacts in the 21

century. An application of the

DIVA and IMAGE models. Climatic Change, 117(4), 783-794.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., P.J. Mumby, A.J. Hooten, R.S. Steneck, P. Greenfield, E. Gomez,

C.D. Harvell, P.F. Sale, A.J. Edwards, K. Caldeira, N. Knowlton, C.M. Eakin, R.

Iglesias-Prieto, N. Muthiga, R.H. Bradbury, A. Dubi, and M.E. Hatziolos, 2007: Coral

reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.Science, 318(5857),

1737-1742.

Hoeke, R.K., K.L. McInnes, J. Kruger, R. McNaught, J. Hunter, and S. Smithers, 2013:

Widespread inundation of Pacific islands by distant-source wind-waves. Global

and Planetary Change, 108, 128-138.

Hofmann, A.F., J.J. Middelburg, K. Soetaert, and F. Meysman, 2009: pH modelling in

aquatic systems with time-variable acid-base dissociation constants applied to

the turbid, tidal Scheldt estuary.Biogeosciences, 6, 1539-1561.

Hofmann, G.E., J.E. Smith, K.S Johnson, U. Send, L.A. Levin, F. Micheli, A. Paytan, N.N.

Price, B. Peterson, Y. Takeshita, P.G. Matson, E.D. Crook, K.J. Kroeker, M.C. Gambi,

E.B. Rivest, C.A. Frieder, P.C. Yu, and T.R. Martz, 2011: High-frequency dynamics

of ocean pH: a multi-ecosystem comparison. PLoS ONE, 6(12), e28983,

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0028983.

Hofstede, J., 2008: Climate change and coastal adaptation strategies: the Schleswig-

Holstein perspective. Baltica, 21(1-2), 71-78.

Holling, C.S., 1978: Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. A Wiley

– Interscience Publication, The Wiley IIASA International Series on Applied

Systems Analysis, Vol. 3, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

(IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria, and John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, UK and New

York, NY, USA, 377 pp.

Hong, B. and J. Shen, 2012: Responses of estuarine salinity and transport processes

to potential future sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay.Estuarine, Coastal and

Shelf Science, 104-105, 33-45.

Hopkins, T.S., D. Bailly, R. Elmgren, G. Glegg, A. Sandberg, and J.G. Stottrup, 2012: A

systems approach framework for the transition to sustainable development:

potential value based on coastal experiments. Ecology and Society, 17(3), 39,

doi:10.5751/ES-05266-170339.

402

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

Horton, R., C. Rosenzweig, V. Gornitz, D. Bader, and M. O’Grady, 2010: Climate risk

information: climate change scenarios and implications for NYC infrastructure.

New York City Panel on Climate Change. Annals of the New York Academy of

Sciences, 1196 (1), 147-228.

Howarth, R., F. Chan, D.J. Conley, J. Garnier, S.C. Doney, R. Marino, and G. Billen,

2011: Coupled biogeochemical cycles: eutrophication and hypoxia in temperate

estuaries and coastal marine ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the

Environment, 9(1), 18-26.

Hunt, A. and P. Watkiss, 2011: Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a

review of the literature. Climatic Change, 104(1), 13-49.

Hunter, J., 2012: A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-

level rise. Climatic Change, 113(2), 239-252.

Hunter, J.R., J.A. Church, N.J. White, and X. Zhang, 2013: Towards a global regionally

varying allowance for sea-level rise. Ocean Engineering, 71(1),17-27.

Huq, S. and H. Reid, 2007: Community Based Adaptation: A Vital Approach to the

Threat Climate Change Poses to the Poor. International Institute for Environment

and Development (IIED) Briefing Paper, London, UK, 2 pp.

Ibrahim, H.S. and D. Shaw, 2012: Assessing progress toward integrated coastal zone

management: some lessons from Egypt. Ocean and Coastal Management, 58,

26-35.

IPCC, 2000: Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Nakićenović, N. and R. Swart

(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA,

570 pp.

IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate

Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker,

D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K.

Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 594 pp.

Irish, J.L, A.E. Frey, J.D. Rosati, F. Olivera, L.M. Dunkin, J.M. Kaihatu, C.M. Ferreira, and

B.L. Edge, 2010: Potential implications of global warming and barrier island

degradation on future hurricane inundation, property damages, and population

impacted. Ocean and Coastal Management, 53, 645-657.

Isager, L., 2008: Coastal Zone Management in Developing Countries with Kenya as

a Particular Example. Geocenter Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark, 52 pp.

IUCN, 2008: Ecosystem-based Adaptation: An Approach for Building Resilience and

Reducing Risk for Local Communities and Ecosystems. A submission by

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to the Chair of the AWG-

LCA with respect to the Shared Vision and Enhanced Action on Adaptation, on

behalf of: IUCN, The Nature Conservancy, WWF, Conservation International,

BirdLife International, Indigenous Peoples of Africa Co-ordinating Committee,

Practical Action, WILD Foundation, Wildlife Conservation Society, Fauna and

Flora International and Wetlands International, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 2 pp.

Jackson, A.C. and J. MacIlvenny, 2011: Coastal squeeze on rocky shores in northern

Scotland and some possible ecological impacts. Journal of Experimental Marine

Biology and Ecology, 400, 314-321.

Jacob, K.H., V. Gornitz, and C. Rosenzweig, 2007: Vulnerability of the New York City

metropolitan area to coastal hazards, including sea-level rise: inferences for

urban coastal risk management and adaptation policies. In: Managing Coastal

Vulnerability [McFadden, L., R.J. Nicholls, and E. Penning-Roswell (eds.)].

Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands and Boston, MA, USA, pp. 141-158.

Jaykus, L.-A., M. Woolridge, J.M. Frank, M. Miraglia, A. McQuatters-Gollop, C. Tirado,

R. Clarke, and M. Friel, 2008: Climate Change: Implications for Food Safety.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy,

49 pp.

Jentoft, S., 2007: Limits of governability: institutional implications for fisheries and

coastal governance. Marine Policy, 31, 360-370.

Jentoft, S., 2009: Future challenges in environmental policy relative to integrated

coastal zone management. In: Integrated Coastal Zone Management

[Moksness, E., E. Dahl, and J. Støttrup (eds.)]. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK,

pp. 157-169.

Jeppesen, E., M. Sondergaard, A.R. Pedersen, K. Jurgens, A. Strzelczak, T.L. Lauridsen,

and L.S. Johansson, 2007: Salinity induced regime shift in shallow brackish

lagoons. Ecosystems, 10, 47-57.

Jimenez, J.A., P. Ciavola, Y. Balouin, C. Armaroli, E. Bosom, and M. Gervais, 2009:

Geomorphic coastal vulnerability to storms in microtidal fetch-limited

environments: application to NW Mediterranean and N Adriatic Seas. Journal

of Coastal Research, 2(56), 1641-1645.

Johnson, C.R., S.C. Banks, N.S. Barrett, F. Cazassus, P.K. Dunstan, G.J. Edgar, S.D.

Frusher, C. Gardner, M. Haddon, F. Helidoniotis, K.L. Hill, N.J. Holbrook, G.W.

Hosie, P.R. Last, S.D. Ling, J. Melbourne-Thomas, K. Miller, G.T. Pecl, A.J. Richardson,

K.R Ridgway, S.R. Rintoul, D.A. Ritz, D.J. Ross, J.C. Sanderson, S.A. Shepherd, A.

Slotwinski, K.M. Swadling, and N. Taw, 2011: Climate change cascades: shifts

in oceanography, species’ ranges and subtidal marine community dynamics in

eastern Tasmania. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology,

400(1-2), 17-32.

Jones, H.P., D.G. Hole, and E.S. Zavaleta, 2012: Harnessing nature to help people

adapt to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2, 504-509.

Jongman, B., P.J. Ward, and J.C.J.H. Aerts, 2012: Global exposure to river and coastal

flooding: long term trends and changes. Global Environmental Change: Human

and Policy Dimensions, 22(4), 823-835.

Jordà, G., N. Marbà, and C.M. Duarte, 2012: Mediterranean seagrass vulnerable to

regional climate warming. Nature Climate Change, 2, 821-824.

Kabat, P., L.O. Fresco, M.J.C. Stive, C.P. Veerman, J.S.L.J. van Alphen, B.W.A.H. Parmet,

W. Hazeleger, and C.A. Katsman, 2009: Dutch coasts in transition. Nature

Geoscience, 2, 450-452.

Kates, R.W., 2000: Cautionary tales: adaptation and the global poor. Climatic Change,

45(1), 5-17.

Katsman, C.A., J.J. Beersma, H.W. van den Brink, J.A. Church, W. Hazeleger, R.E. Kopp,

D. Kroon, J. Kwadijk, R. Lammersen, J. Lowe, M. Oppenheimer, H.P. Plag, J. Ridley,

H. von Storch, D.G. Vaughan, P. Vellinga, L.L.A. Vermeersen, R.S.W. van de Wal,

and R. Weisse, 2011: Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to

develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta – the Netherlands as

an example. Climate Change, 109, 617-645.

Kay, R.C., 2012: Adaptation by ribbon cutting: time to understand where the scissors

are kept. Climate and Development, 4(2), 75-77.

Kay, R. and J. Adler, 2005: Coastal Planning and Management. 2

edn., CRC Press,

London, UK, 400 pp.

Kebede, A.S. and R.J. Nicholls, 2012: Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes:

population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Regional Environmental Change, 12, 81-94.

Kennedy, H. and M. Björk, 2009: Seagrass meadows. In: The Management of Natural

Coastal Carbon Sinks [Laffoley, D. and G. Grimsditch (eds.)]. International Union

for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Gland, Switzerland, pp. 23-29.

Kenter, J.O., T. Hyde, M. Christie, and I. Fazey, 2011: The importance of deliberation

in valuing ecosystem services in developing countries – evidence from the

Solomon Islands. Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions,

21(2), 505-521.

Kettle, N.P., 2012: Exposing compounding uncertainties in sea level rise assessments.

Journal of Coastal Research, 28, 161-173.

Khan, A., S.K. Mojumder, S. Kovats, and P. Vineis, 2008: Saline contamination of

drinking water in Bangladesh. The Lancet, 371(9610), 385.

Khan, A.S., A. Ramachandran, N. Usha, S. Punitha, and V. Selvam, 2012: Predicted

impact of the sea-level rise at Vellar–Coleroon estuarine region of Tamil Nadu

coast in India: mainstreaming adaptation as a coastal zone management

option. Ocean and Coastal Management, 69, 327-339.

Kiessling, W., C. Simpson, B. Beck, H. Mewis, and J.M. Pandolfi, 2012: Equatorial decline

of reef corals during the last Pleistocene interglacial. Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(52), 21378-21383.

Kiker, G.A., R. Muñoz-Carpena, N. Ranger, M. Kiker, and I. Linkov, 2010: Adaptation

in coastal systems. In: Climate: Global Change and Local Adaptation [Linkov, I.

and T.S. Bridges, (eds.)]. Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 375-400.

Kirshen, P., S. Merrill, P. Slovinsky, and N. Richardson, 2012: Simplified method for

scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone.

Climatic Change, 113(3-4), 919-931.

Kirwan, M.L. and S.M. Mudd, 2012: Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to

climate change. Nature, 489, 550-553.

Kirwan, M.L., G.R. Guntenspergen, A. D’Alpaos, J.T. Morris, S.M. Mudd, and S.

Temmerman, 2010: Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea

level. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(23), L23401, doi:10.1029/2010GL045489.

Klein, R.J.T., S. Huq, F. Denton, T.E. Downing, R.G. Richels, J.B. Robinson, and F.L. Toth,

2007: Inter- relationships between adaptation and mitigation. In: Climate

Change 2007: Impacts and Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working

Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and

C.E. Hanson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York,

NY, USA, pp. 745-777.

403

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

Kleiner, K., 2011: Data on demand. Nature Climate Change, 1(1), 10-12.

Kleypas, J.A., G. Danabasoglu, and J.M. Lough, 2008: Potential role of the ocean

thermostat in determining regional differences in coral reef bleaching

events. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(3), L03613, doi:10.1029/

2007GL032257.

Kleypas, J.A., K.R.N. Anthony, and J.-P.Gattuso, 2011: Coral reefs modify their

seawater carbon chemistry: case study from a barrier reef (Moorea, French

Polynesia). Global Change Biology, 17, 3667-3678.

Koelle, K., X. Rodo, M. Pascual, M. Yunus, and G. Mostafa, 2005: Refractory periods

and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature, 436(7051), 696-700.

Kolivras, K.N., 2010: Changes in dengue risk potential in Hawaii, USA, due to climate

variability and change. Climate Research, 42, 1-11.

Kolker, A.S., M.A. Allison, and S. Hameed, 2011: An evaluation of subsidence rates

and sea-level variability in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Geophysical Research

Letters, 38(21), L21404, doi:10.1029/2011GL049458.

Kolstad, E.W. and K.A. Johansson, 2011: Uncertainties associated with quantifying

climate change impacts on human health: a case study for diarrhea.

Environmental Health Perspectives, 119, 299-305.

Kriegler, E., B.C. O’Neill, S. Hallegatte, T. Kram, R.J. Lempert, R.H. Moss, and T.

Wilbanks, 2012: The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate

change analysis: a new approach based on shared socio-economic

pathways.Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions, 22(4),

807-822.

Kroeker, K.J., F. Michell, M.C. Gambi, and T.R. Martz, 2011: Divergent ecosystem

responses within a benthic marine community to ocean acidification. Proceedings

of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108,

14515-14520.

Kroeker, K.J., R.C. Kordas Ryan, I. Hendriks, L. Ramajo, G. Singh, C. Duarte, and J.

Gattuso, 2013: Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying

sensitivities and interaction with warming.Global Change Biology, 19(6), 1884-

1896.

Kroeze, C., E. Dumont, and S. Seitzinger, 2010: Future trends in emissions of N

from rivers and estuaries.Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences, SI 7,

71-78.

Kwadijk, J.C.J., M. Haasnoot, J.P.M. Mulder, M.M.C. Hoogvliet, A.B.M. Jeuken, R.A.A.

van der Krogt, N.G.C. van Oostrom, H.A. Schelfhout, E.H. van Velzen, H. van

Waveren, and M.J.M. de Wit, 2010: Using adaptation tipping points to prepare

for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands.Wiley

Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(5), 729-740.

Langley, J.A., K.L. McKee, D.R. Cahoon, J.A. Cherry, and J.P. Megonigal, 2009: Elevated

stimulates marsh elevation gain, counterbalancing sea-level rise.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of

America, 106(15), 6182-6186.

Langton, M., M. Parsons, S. Leonard, K. Auty, D. Bell, P. Burgess, S. Edwards, R. Howitt,

S. Jackson, V. McGrath, and J. Morrison, 2012: National Climate Change

Adaptation Research Plan for Indigenous Communities. National Climate

Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), Gold Coast, Australia, 48 pp.

Larsen, P.H., S. Goldsmith, O. Smith, M.L. Wilson, K. Strzepek, P. Chinowsky, and B.

Saylor, 2008: Estimating future costs for Alaska public infrastructure at risk from

climate change. Global Environment Change, 18, 442-457.

Lasalle, G. and E. Rochard, 2009: Impact of twenty-first century climate change on

diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Global

Change Biology, 15, 1072-1089.

Last, P.R., W.T. White, D.C. Gledhill, A.J. Hobday, R. Brown, G.J. Edgar, and G. Pecl,

2011: Long-term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna:

a response to climate change and fishing practices. Global Ecology and

Biogeography, 20, 58-72.

Lata, S. and P. Nunn, 2012: Misperceptions of climate-change risk as barriers to

climate-change adaptation: a case study from the Rewa Delta, Fiji. Climatic

Change, 110(1-2), 169-186.

Leatherman, S., K. Zhang, and B. Douglas, 2000a: Sea level rise shown to drive

coastal erosion. EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 81(6),

55-57.

Leatherman, S., K. Zhang, and B. Douglas, 2000b: Sea level rise shown to drive

coastal erosion: a reply. EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union,

81(38), 437-441.

Ledoux, L., S. Cornell, T. O’Riordan, R. Harvey, and L. Banyard, 2005: Towards

sustainable flood and coastal management: identifying drivers of, and obstacles

to, managed realignment. Land Use Policy, 22(2),129-144.

Lehner, B., C.R. Liermann, C. Revenga, C. Vorosmarty, B. Fekete, P. Crouzet, P. Doll, M.

Endejan, K. Frenken, J. Magome, C. Nilsson, J.C. Robertson, R. Rodel, N. Sindorf,

and D. Wisser, 2011: High-resolution mapping of the world’s reservoirs and

dams for sustainable river-flow management. Frontiers in Ecology and the

Environment, 9, 494-502.

Lemos, M.C., C.J. Kirchhoff, and V. Ramprasad, 2012: Narrowing the climate

information usability gap. Nature Climate Change, 2, 789-794.

Lempert, R.J. and M.T. Collins, 2007: Managing the risk of uncertain threshold

responses: comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk

Analysis, 27(4), 1009-1026.

Lempert, R.J. and M.E. Schlesinger, 2000: Robust strategies for abating climate

change. An editorial essay.Climatic Change, 45(3-4), 387-401.

Lempert, R.J. and M.E. Schlesinger, 2001: Climate-change strategy needs to be

robust.Nature, 412(6845), 375.

Lempert, R.J., R.L. Sriver, and K. Keller, 2012: Characterizing Uncertain Sea Level Rise

Projections to Support Investment Decisions. White Paper, California Energy

Commission’s California Climate Change Center, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, USA,

44 pp.

Lerman, A., M. Guidry, A.J. Andersson, and F.T. Mackenzie, 2011: Coastal ocean last

glacial maximum to 2100 CO

-carbonic acid-carbonate system: a modeling

approach.Aquatic Geochemistry, 17, 749-773.

Levermann, A., P.U. Clark, B. Marzeion, G.A. Milne, D. Pollard, V. Radic, and A. Robinson,

2013: The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming. Proceedings

of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(34),

13745-13750.

Levinton, J., M. Doall, D. Ralston, A. Starke, and B. Allam, 2011: Climate change,

precipitation and impacts on an estuarine refuge from disease.PLoS One, 6(4),

e18849, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0018849.

Lewis, M., K. Horsburgh, P. Bates, and R. Smith, 2011: Quantifying the uncertainty in

future coastal flood risk estimates for the UK. Journal of Coastal Research,

27(5), 870-881.

Li, J., M.H. Wang, and Y.S. Ho, 2011: Trends in research on global climate change: a

science citation index expanded-based analysis. Global and Planetary Change,

77, 13-20.

Li, K. and G.S. Li, 2011: Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area

of Guangdong Province. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(7),

2003-2010.

Lichter, M., A.T. Vafeidis, R.J. Nicholls, and G. Kaiser, 2011: Exploring data-related

uncertainties in analyses of land area and population in the “Low-Elevation

Coastal Zone” (LECZ). Journal of Coastal Research, 27(4), 757-768.

Lima, F.P. and D.S. Wethey, 2012: Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface

temperatures reveal more than warming.Nature Communications, 3, 704,

doi:10.1038/ncomms1713.

Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke, 2012: Physically based

assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature Climate

Change, 2(6), 462-467.

Linham, M.M. and R.J. Nicholls, 2010: Technologies for Climate Change Adaptation:

Coastal Erosion and Flooding. UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, Climate and

Sustainable Development, Roskilde, Denmark, 150 pp.

Linham, M.M. and R.J. Nicholls, 2012: Adaptation technologies for coastal erosion

and flooding: a review. Proceedings of the Institute of Civil Engineers –

Maritime Engineering, 165, 95-111.

Logan, C.A., J.P. Dunne, C.M. Eakin, and S.D. Donner, 2014: Incorporating adaptation

and acclimatization into future projections of coral bleaching. Global Change

Biology, 20, 125-139.

Lonsdale, K.G., M.J. Gawith, K. Johnstone, R.B. Street, C.C. West, and A.D. Brown,

2010: Attributes of Well-Adapting Organisations. Report prepared by the UK

Climate Impacts Programme for the Adaptation Sub-Committee, UK Climate

Impacts Programme, Oxford, UK, 89 pp.

Losada, I.J, B.G. Reguero, F.J. Mendez, S. Castanedo, A.J. Abascal, and R. Minguez,

2013: Long-term changes in sea-level components in Latin America and the

Caribbean. Global and Planetary Change, 104, 34-50.

Lotze, H. K., H.S. Lenihan, B.J. Bourque, R.H. Bradbury, R.G. Cooke, M.C. Kay, S.M. Kidwell,

M.X. Kirby, C.H. Peterson, and J.B.C. Jackson, 2006: Depletion, degradation,

and recovery potential of estuaries and coastal seas. Science, 312, 1806-1809.

Lowe, J.A., T.P. Howard, A. Pardaens, J. Tinker, J. Holt, S. Wakelin, G. Milne, J. Leake, J.

Wolf, K. Horsburgh, T. Reeder, G. Jenkins, J. Ridley, S. Dye, and S. Bradley, 2009:

UK Climate Projections Science Report: Marine and Coastal Projections. Met

Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, 95 pp.

404

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

Mangal, T.D., S. Paterson, and A. Fenton, 2008: Predicting the impact of long-term

temperature changes on the epidemiology and control of Schistosomiasis: a

mechanistic model. PLoS ONE, 3(1), e1438, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001438.

Manzello, D.P., 2010: Coral growth with thermal stress and ocean acidification:

lessons from the eastern tropical Pacific.Coral Reefs, 29(3), 749-758.

Manzello, D.P., J.A. Kleypas, D.A. Budd, C.M. Eakin, P.W. Glynn, and C. Langdon, 2008:

Poorly cemented coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific: possible insights

into reef development in a high-CO

world. Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(30), 10450-10455.

Marbà, N. and C.M. Duarte, 2010: Mediterranean warming triggers seagrass

(Posidonia oceanica) shoot mortality. Global Change Biology, 16, 2366-2375.

Marchand, M., A. Sanchez-Arcilla, M. Ferreira, J. Gault, J.A. Jiménez, M. Markovic, J.

Mulder, L. van Rijn, A. Stănică, W. Sulisz, and J. Sutherland, 2011: Concepts and

science for coastal erosion management – an introduction to the Conscience

framework. Ocean and Coastal Management, 54(12), 859-866.

Marcos, M., M.N. Tsimplis, and A.G.P. Shaw, 2009: Sea level extremes in southern

Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 114(C1), C01007, doi:10.1029/

2008JC004912.

Marriner, N., C. Flaux, C. Morhange, and D. Kaniewski, 2012: Nile Delta’s sinking

past: quantifiable links with Holocene compaction and climate-driven changes

in sediment supply? Geology, 40(12), 1083-1086.

Martinez, G., L. Bizikova, D. Blobel, and R. Swart, 2011: Emerging climate change

coastal adaptation strategies and case studies around the world. In: Global

Change and Baltic Coastal Zones Coastal Research Library, Vol. 1 [Schernewski,

G., J. Hofstede, and T. Neumann (eds.)]. Springer-Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg,

Germany, pp. 249-273.

Mazzotti, S., A. Lambert, M. Van der Kooij, and A. Mainville, 2009: Impact of

anthropogenic subsidence on relative sea-level rise in the Fraser River delta.

Geology, 37, 771-774.

McEvoy, D. and J. Mullett, 2013: Enhancing the Resilience of Seaports to a Changing

Climate: Research Synthesis and Implications for Policy and Practice. Work

Package 4 of Enhancing the Resilience of Seaports to a Changing Climate

Report Series, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold

Coast, Australia, 49 pp.

McFadden, L., 2008: Exploring the challenges of integrated coastal zone

management and reflecting on contributions to ‘integration’ from geographical

thought. The Geographical Journal, 174(4), 299-314.

McGinnis, M.V. and C.E. McGinnis, 2011: Adapting to climate impacts in California:

the importance of civic science in local coastal planning. Coastal Management,

39(3), 225-241.

McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007: The rising tide: assessing the risks

of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones.

Environment and Urbanization, 19, 17-37.

McInnes, R., 2006: Responding to the Risks from Climate Change in Coastal Zones:

A Good Practice Guide. Centre for the Coastal Environment, Isle of Wight

Council, Newport, Isle of Wight, UK, 88 pp.

McKee, K., K. Rogers, and N. Saintilan, 2012: Response of salt marsh and mangrove

wetlands to changes in atmospheric CO

, climate, and sea level. In: Global

Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands [Middleton, B.A.(ed.)].

Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 63-96.

McLain, R. and R. Lee, 1996: Adaptive management: promises and pitfalls.

Environmental Management, 20(4), 437-448.

McLeod, E., B. Poulter, J. Hinkel, E. Reyes, and R. Salm, 2010: Sea-level rise impact

models and environmental conservation: a review of models and their

applications. Ocean and Coastal Management,53(9), 507-517.

McLeod, E., G.L. Chmura, S. Bouillon, R. Salm, M. Björk, C.M. Duarte, C.E. Lovelock,

W.H. Schlesinger, and B.R. Silliman, 2011: A blueprint for blue carbon: toward

an improved understanding of the role of vegetated coastal habitats in

sequestering CO

. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 9(10), 552-560.

McNamara, D.E., A.B. Murray, and M.D. Smith, 2011: Coastal sustainability depends

on how economic and coastline responses to climate change affect each other.

Geophysical Research Letters, 38(7), L07401, doi:10.1029/2011GL047207.

MEA, 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment (MEA), Island Press, Washington, DC, USA, 137 pp.

Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A.

Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver,

and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The

Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth

Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor,

and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New

York, NY, USA pp. 747-846.

Meinshausen, M., S.J. Smith, K. Calvin, J.S. Daniel, M.L.T. Kainuma, J. Lamarque, K.

Matsumoto, S.A. Montzka, S.C.B. Raper, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, and G.J.M. Velders,

2011: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765

to 2300.Climatic Change, 109, 213-241.

Meire, L., K.E.R. Soetaert, and F.J.R. Meysman, 2013: Impact of global change on

coastal oxygen dynamics and risk of hypoxia. Biogeosciences, 10, 2633-2653.

Menendez, M. and P.L. Woodworth, 2010: Changes in extreme high water levels

based on a quasi-global tide-gauge dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research:

Oceans, 115, C10011, doi:10.1029/2009JC005997.

Menge, B.A., F. Chan, and J. Lubchenco, 2008: Response of a rocky intertidal ecosystem

engineer and community dominant to climate change.Ecology Letters, 11(2),

151-162.

Mercer, J., 2010: Disaster risk reduction or climate change adaptation: are we

reinventing the wheel? Journal of International Development, 22(2), 247-264.

Meynecke, J.O. and S. Yip Lee, 2011: Climate-coastal fisheries relationships and

their spatial variation in Queensland, Australia. Fisheries Research, 110(2), 365-

376.

Milligan, J., T. O’Riordan, S.A. Nicholson-Cole, and A.R. Watkinson, 2009: Nature

conservation for future sustainable shorelines: lessons from seeking to involve

the public. Land Use Policy, 26, 203-213.

Milliman, J.D. and K.L. Farnsworth, 2011: River Discharge to the Coastal Ocean: A

Global Synthesis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 384 pp.

Milne, G.A., W.R. Gehrels, C.W. Hughes, and M.E. Tamisiea, 2009: Identifying the

causes of sea-level change. Nature Geoscience, 2, 471-478.

Mimura, N., 2013: Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for

society. Proceedings of the Japan Academy, Series B Physical and Biological

Sciences, 89(7), 281-301.

Miranda, P.M.A., J.M.R. Alves, and N. Serra, 2012: Climate change and upwelling:

response of Iberian upwelling to atmospheric forcing in a regional climate

scenario. Climate Dynamics, 40(11-12), 2813-2824.

Mitchell, T., M. van Aalst, and P.S. Vllanueva, 2010: Assessing Progress on Integrating

Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Development

Processes. Strengthening Climate Resilience: Discussion Paper 2, Institute of

Development Studies, Brighton, UK, 28 pp.

Mondal, P. and A.J. Tatem, 2012: Uncertainties in measuring populations potentially

impacted by sea level rise and coastal flooding. PLoS ONE, 7(10), e48191,

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0048191.

Montaggioni, L.F., 2005: History of Indo-Pacific coral reef systems since the last

glaciation: development patterns and controlling factors. Earth-Science

Reviews, 71(1-2), 1-75.

Moreno, A. and B. Amelung, 2009a: How hot is too hot? A survey on climate (change)

and tourism. In: Proceedings of CMT2009, the 6

International Congress on

Coastal and Marine Tourism, 23 – 26 June 2009 Port Elizabeth – Nelson

Mandela Bay – South Africa [Albers, A. and P. Myles, (eds.)]. CMT2009/WP/004,

Kyle Business Projects, Port Elizabeth, Nelson Mandela Bay, South Africa, pp.

237-241.

Moreno, A. and B. Amelung, 2009b: Climate change and coastal and marine tourism:

review and analysis. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 56, 1140-1144.

Morton, R.A., J.C. BernierJ.A. Barras, and N.F., Ferina, 2005: Rapid Subsidence and

Historical Wetland Loss in the Mississippi Delta Plain: Likely Causes and Future

Implications. Open File Report 2005-1216, U.S. Department of Interior and U.S.

Geological Survey (USGS), 124 pp.

Moser, S.C. and J.A. Ekstrom, 2010: A framework to diagnose barriers to climate

change adaptation. Proceeding of the National Academic of Sciences of the

United States of America, 107(51), 22026-22031.

Moser, S.C., R.E. Kasperson, G. Yohe, and J. Agyeman, 2008: Adaptation to climate

change in the Northeast United States: opportunities, processes, constraints.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13(5-6), 643-659.

Moser, S.C., J. Williams, and D.F. Boesch, 2012: Wicked challenges at land’s end:

managing coastal vulnerability under climate change. Annual Review of

Environment and Resources, 37, 51-78.

Moss, R.H., J.A. Edmonds, K.A. Hibbard, M.R. Manning, S.K. Rose, D.P. van Vuuren,

T.R. Carter, S. Emori, M. Kainuma, T. Kram, G.A. Meehl, J.F.B. Mitchell, N.

Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S.J. Smith, R.J. Stouffer, A.M. Thomson, J.P. Weyant, and

T.J. Wilbanks, 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change

research and assessment.Nature, 463(7282), 747-756.

405

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

Mousavi, M., J. Irish, A. Frey, F. Olivera, and B. Edge, 2011: Global warming and

hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise

on coastal flooding. Climatic Change, 104(3-4), 575-597.

Mozumder, P., E. Flugman, and T. Randhir, 2011: Adaptation behavior in the face of

global climate change: survey responses from experts and decision makers

serving the Florida Keys. Ocean and Coastal Management, 54 (1), 37-44.

Mudd, S.M., S.M. Howell, and J.T. Morris, 2009: Impact of dynamic feedbacks between

sedimentation, sea-level rise, and biomass production on near-surface marsh

stratigraphy and carbon accumulation. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Sciences,

82, 377-389.

Mulder, J.P.M., S. Hommes, and E.M. Horstman, 2011: Implementation of coastal

erosion management in the Netherlands. Ocean and Coastal Management,

54(12), 888-897.

Munroe, R.,N. Doswald,D. Roe,H. Reid, A. Giuliani,I. Castelli,and I. Moller, 2011:

Does EbA Work? A Review of the Evidence on the Effectiveness of Ecosystem-

Based Approaches to Adaptation. Policy Brief by the United Nations Environment

Programme-World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), BirdLife

Inernational, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED),

and the University of Cambridge, ELAN, Cambridge, UK, 4 pp.

Murray, V., G. McBean, M. Bhatt, S. Borsch, T.S. Cheong, W.F. Erian, S. Llosa, F. Nadim,

M. Nunez, R. Oyun, and A.G. Suarez, 2012: Case studies. In: Managing the Risks

of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A

Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi,

M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley

(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp.

487-542.

Myung, H.-N. and J.-Y. Jang, 2011: Causes of death and demographic characteristics

of victims of meteorological disasters in Korea from 1990 to 2008. Environmental

Health, 10, 82, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-10-82.

Nageswara Rao, K., P. Subraelu, K.Ch.V. Naga Kumar, G. Demudu, B. Hema Malini,

A.S. Rajawat, and Ajai, 2010: Impacts of sediment retention by dams on delta

shoreline recession: evidences from the Krishna and Godavari deltas, India.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 35, 817-827.

Nakashima, D.J., K. Galloway McLean, H.D. Thulstrup, A. Ramos Castillo, and R.T.

Rubis, 2012: Weathering Uncertainty: Traditional Knowledge for Climate

Change Assessment and Adaptation. The United Nations Educational, Scientific

and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Paris, France, and United Nations University

(UNU), Darwin, Australia, 120 pp.

Narayan, N., A. Paul, S. Mulitza, and M. Schulz, 2010: Trends in coastal upwelling

intensity during the late 20

century. Ocean Science,6(3), 815-823.

Narita, D., K. Rehdanz, and R. Tol, 2012: Economic costs of ocean acidification: a look

into the impacts on shellfish production.Climatic Change, 113(3-4), 1049-1063.

Naylor, L.A., W.J. Stephenson, and A.S. Trenhaile, 2010: Rock coast geomorphology:

recent advances and future research directions. Geomorphology, 114 (1-2),

pp. 3-11.

Nellemann, C., E. Corcoran, C.M. Duarte, L. Valdes, D. De Young, I. Fonseca, and G.

Grimsditch (eds.), 2009: Blue Carbon. A Rapid Response Assessment, United

Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal, Arendal, Norway, 78 pp.

Nicholls, R.J., 2010: Impacts of and responses to sea-level rise. In: Understanding

Sea-level Rise and Variability [Church, J.A., P.L. Woodworth, T. Aarup, and W.S.

Wilson (eds.)]. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK and Hoboken, NJ, USA, pp. 17-

51.

Nicholls, R.J. and A. Cazenave, 2010: Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones.

Science, 328(5985), 1517-1520.

Nicholls, R.J. and R.S.J. Tol, 2006: Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global

analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.Philosophical

Transactions of the Royal Society A, 364(1841), 1073-1095.

Nicholls, R.J., P.P. Wong, V.R. Burkett, J.O. Codignotto, J.E. Hay, R.F. McLean, S.

Ragoonaden, and C.D. Woodroffe, 2007: Coastal systems and low-lying areas.

In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution

of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, [Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der

Linden, and C.E. Hanson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

and New York, NY, USA, pp. 315-356.

Nicholls, R.J., S. Hanson, C. Herweijer, N. Patmore, S. Hallegatte, J. Corfee-Morlot, J.

Château, and R. Muir-Wood, 2008: Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and

Vulnerability to Climate Extremes. OECD Environment Working Paper No. 1,

OECD Publishing, Paris, France, 62 pp.

Nicholls, R.J., S. Brown, S. Hanson, and J. Hinkel, 2010: Economics of Coastal Zone

Adaptation to Climate Change. The World Bank Discussion Paper 10, Development

and Climate Change Series, The International Bank for Development and

Reconstruction / The World Bank, Washington DC, USA, 48 pp.

Nicholls, R.J., N. Marinova, J.A. Lowe, S. Brown, P. Vellinga, D. de Gusmão, J. Hinkel,

and R.S.J. Tol, 2011: Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°c

world’ in the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal

Society A, 369(1934), 161-181.

Nicholls, R.J., S.E. Hanson, J.A. Lowe, R.A. Warrick, X. Lu, and A.J. Long, 2013: Sea-

level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:

Climate Change, 5(1), 129-150.

Nixon, S.W., 1982: Nutrient dynamics, primary production and fisheries yields of

lagoons. In: Coastal Lagoons: Proceedings of the International Symposium on

Coastal Lagoons, Bordeaux, France, 8-14 September, 1981 [Lasserre, P. and H.

Postma (eds.)]. Oceanologica Acta, V(Suppl 4), 357-371.

Norman, B., 2009: Planning for Coastal Climate Change: An Insight into International

and National Approaches. Victorian Government Department of Planning and

Community Development and Department of Sustainability and Environment,

Melbourne, Australia, 62 pp.

Nunn, P.D., 2009: Responding to the challenges of climate change in the Pacific

Islands: management and technological imperatives. Climate Research, 40(2-3),

211-231.

O’Neill, B.C., T.R. Carter, K.L. Ebi, J. Edmonds, S. Hallegatte, E. Kemp-Benedict, E.

Kriegler, L. Mearns, R. Moss, K. Riahi, B. van Ruijven, and D. van Vuuren, 2012:

Meeting Report of the Workshop on the Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic

Pathways for Climate Change Research, Boulder, CO, November 2-4, 2011,

Integrated Science Program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research

(NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA, 37 pp., www.isp.ucar.edu/socio-economic-pathways.

O’Rourke, D. and S. Connolly, 2003: Just oil? The distribution of environmental and

social impacts of oil production and consumption. Annual Review of Environment

and Resources, 28, 587-617.

Onozuka, D., M. Hashizume, and A. Hagihara, 2010: Effects of weather variability on

infectious gastroenteritis. Epidemiology and Infection, 138(2), 236-343.

Ostrom, E., 2007: A diagnostic approach for going beyond panaceas. Proceedings

of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(39),

15181-15187.

Ostrom, E., 2009: A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological

systems. Science, 325(5939), 419-422.

Palmer, B.J., T.R. Hill, G.K. Mcgregor, and A.W. Paterson, 2011: An assessment of coastal

development and land use change using the DPSIR Framework: case studies

from the Eastern Cape, South Africa.Coastal Management, 39(2), 158-174.

Parry, M., N. Arnell, P. Berry, D. Dodman, S. Fankhauser, C. Hope, S. Kovats, R. Nicholls,

D. Satterthwaite, R. Tiffin, and T. Wheeler, 2009:Assessing the Costs of Adaptation

to Climate Change: A Review of the UNFCCC and Other Recent Estimates.

International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and Grantham

Institute for Climate Change, London, UK, 111 pp.

Parvin, G., F. Takahashi, and R. Shaw, 2008: Coastal hazards and community-coping

methods in Bangladesh. Journal of Coastal Conservation, 12(4), 181-193.

Paul, S. and J. Routray, 2010: Household response to cyclone and induced surge in

coastal Bangladesh: coping strategies and explanatory variables. Natural

Hazards, 57(2), 477-499.

Pe’eri, S. and B. Long, 2012: LIDAR technology applied to coastal studies and

management. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 62, 1-5.

Pearce, A.F. and M. Feng, 2013: The rise and fall of the “marine heat wave” off Western

Australia during the summer of 2010/11.Journal of Marine Systems, 111-112,

139-156.

Pearce, T., B. Smit, F. Duerden, J.D. Ford, A. Goose, and F. Kataoyak, 2010: Inuit

vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change in Ulukhaktok, Northwest

Territories, Canada. Polar Record, 46 (237), 157-177.

Peel, C. (ed.), 2010: Facing Up to Rising Sea-Levels: Retreat? Defend? Attack?

Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) and Building Futures: Royal Institute of British

Architects, London, UK, 27 pp.

Pelling, M., 2011: Adaptation to Climate Change: From Resilience to Transformation.

Routledge, Abingdon, UK, 224 pp.

Pelling, M. and J.I. Uitto, 2001: Small island developing states: natural disaster

vulnerability and global change. Environmental Hazards, 3, 49-62.

Pendleton, L., D.C. Donato, B.C. Murray, S. Crooks, W.A. Jenkins, S. Sifleet, C. Craft,

J.W. Fourqurean, J.B. Kauffman, N. Marba, P. Megonigal, E. Pidgeon, D. Herr, D.

Gordon, and A. Baldera, 2012: Estimating global “blue carbon” emissions from

406

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems. PLoS One, 7(9),

e43542, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043542.

Penland, S., P.F. Connor, Jr., A. Beall, S. Fearnley, and S.J. Williams, 2005: Changes in

Louisiana’s Shoreline: 1855-2002. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 44, 7-39.

Penning-Rowsell, E.C., N. Haigh, S. Lavery, and L. McFadden, 2012: A threatened

world city: the benefits of protecting London from the sea. Natural Hazards,

66(3), 1383-1404.

Perch-Nielson, S.L., 2010: The vulnerability of beach tourism to climate change – an

index approach. Climatic Change, 100(3-4), 579-606.

Perch-Nielson, S.L., B. Amelung, and R. Knutti, 2010: Future climatic resources for

tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index. Climatic Change,

103, 363-381.

Percival, G.S., 2008: An Assessment of Indigenous Environmental Knowledge (IEK)

in the Pacific Region to Improve Resilience Environmental Change. Climate

Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Kensington, Australia,

37 pp.

Pérez, Á.A., B.H. Fernández, and R.C. Gatti (eds.), 2010: Building Resilience to Climate

Change: Ecosystem-Based Adaptation and Lessons from the Field. Ecosystem

Management Series No. 9, International Union for Conservation of Nature

(IUCN), Gland, Switzerland, 164 pp.

Perry, C.L. and I.A. Mendelssohn, 2009: Ecosystem effects of expanding populations

of Avicennia germinans in a Louisiana salt marsh. Wetlands, 29(1), 396-406.

Perry, C.T., G.N. Murphy, P.S. Kench, S.G. Smithers, E.N. Edinger, R.S. Steneck, and P.J.

Mumby, 2013: Caribbean-wide decline in carbonate production threatens coral

reef growth. Nature Communications, 4, 1402, doi:10.1038/ncomms2409.

Phillips, M.R. and A.L. Jones, 2006: Erosion and tourism infrastructure in the coastal

zone: problems, consequences and management. Tourism Management, 27,

517-524.

Pialoux, G., B.-A. Gaüzère, S. Jauréguiberry, and M. Strobel, 2007: Chikungunya, an

epidemic arbovirosis. The Lancet: Infectious Diseases, 7(5), 319-327.

Pilkey, O.H. and R. Young, 2009: The Rising Sea. Island Press/Shearwater Books,

Washington DC, USA, 209 pp.

Plant, N., H. Stockdon, A. Sallenger, M. Turco, J. East, A. Taylor, and W. Shaffer, 2010:

Forecasting hurricane impact on coastal topography. EOS, Transactions of the

American Geophysical Union, 91(7), 65-72.

Polack, E., 2010: Integrating Climate Change into Regional Disaster Risk Management

at the Mekong River Commission. Strengthening Climate Resilience Discussion

Paper 4, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton, UK, 36 pp.

Pollack, J.B., T.A. Palmer, and P.A. Montagna, 2011: Long-term trends in the response

of benthic macrofauna to climate variability in the Lavaca-Colorado Estuary,

Texas.Marine Ecology Progress Series, 436, 67-80.

Poloczanska, E.S., S.J. Hawkins, A.J. Southward, and M.T. Burrows, 2008: Modeling

the response of populations of competing species to climate change.

Ecology, 89(11), 3138-3149.

Poloczanska, E.S., S. Smith, L. Fauconnet, J. Healy, I.R. Tibbetts, M.T. Burrows, and

A.J. Richardson, 2011: Little change in the distribution of rocky shore faunal

communities on the Australian east coast after 50 years of rapid warming.

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 400(1-2), 145-154.

Pomeroy, R.S., B.D. Ratner, S.J. Hall, J. Pimoljinda, and V. Vivekanandan, 2006: Coping

with disaster: rehabilitating coastal livelihoods and communities. Marine Policy,

30(6), 786-793.

Pouliotte, J., B. Smit, and L. Westerhoff, 2009: Adaptation and development:

livelihoods and climate change in Subarnabad, Bangladesh. Climate and

Development, 1(1), 31-46.

Provoost, P., S. van Heuven, K. Soetaert, R. Laane, and J.J. Middelburg, 2010: Seasonal

and long-term changes in pH in the Dutch coastal zone.Biogeosciences, 7(11),

3869-3878.

Raabe, E.A., L.C. Roy, and C.C. McIvor, 2012: Tampa Bay coastal wetlands: nineteenth

to twentieth century tidal marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Estuaries and Coasts,

35(5), 1145-1162.

Rabalais, N.N., R.E. Turner, R.J. Díaz, and D. Justić, 2009: Climate change and

eutrophication of coastal waters. International Council for the Exploration of

the Sea (ICES) Journal of Marine Sciences, 66, 1528-1537.

Rabalais, N.N., R.J. Diaz, L.A. Levin, R.E. Turner, D. Gilbert, and J. Zhang, 2010:

Dynamics and distribution of natural and human-caused hypoxia.

Biogeosciences, 7(2), 585-619.

Rabbani, M.G., S.H. Rahman, and L. Faulkner, 2013: Impacts of climatic hazards on

the small wetland ecosystems (ponds): evidence from some selected areas of

coastal Bangladesh. Sustainability, 5, 1510-1521.

Rahman, K.M.M., J. Ensor, and R. Berger, 2009: River erosion and flooding in northern

Bangladesh. In: Understanding Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from

Community-Based Approaches [Ensor, J. and R. Berger (eds.)]. Practical Action

Publishing, Bourton-on-Dunsmore, UK, pp. 39-54.

Raihan, S., M. Huq, Gerstrøm N. Alsted, and M. Andreasen, 2010: Understanding

Climate Change from Below, Addressing Barriers from Above: Practical

Experience and Learning from a Community-Based Adaptation Project in

Bangladesh. ActionAid Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 98 pp.

Ramasamy, R. and S.N. Surendran, 2011: Possible impact of rising sea levels on

vector-borne infectious diseases. BMC Infectious Diseases, 11, 18, doi:10.1186/

1471-2334-11-18.

Ranasinghe, R., D. Callaghan, and M. Stive, 2012: Estimating coastal recession due

to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule. Climatic Change, 110, 561-574.

Rasheed, M.A. and R.K.F. Unsworth, 2011: Long-term climate-associated dynamics

of a tropical seagrass meadow: implications for the future. Marine Ecology

Progress Series, 422, 93-103.

Rawlani, A. and B. Sovacool, 2011: Building responsiveness to climate change

through community based adaptation in Bangladesh. Mitigation and Adaptation

Strategies for Global Change, (16)8, 845-863.

Reguero, B., F.J. Méndez, and I.J. Losada, 2013: Variability of multivariate wave climate

in Latin America and the Caribbean. Global and Planetary Change, 100, 70-84.

Reid, H., T. Cannon, R. Berger, M. Alam, and A. Milligan (eds.), 2009: Participatory

Learning and Action 60: Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change.

International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), London, UK,

218 pp.

Reusch, T.B.H., A. Ehlers, A. Hämmerli, and B. Worm, 2005: Ecosystem recovery after

climatic extremes enhanced by genotypic diversity. Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102(8), 2826-2831.

Revell, D.L., R. Battalio, B. Spear, P. Ruggiero, and J. Vandever, 2011: A methodology

for predicting future coastal hazards due to sea-level rise on the California

coast.Climatic Change, 109(Suppl. 1), 251-276.

Reynaud, S., N. Leclercq, S. Romaine-Lioud, C. Ferrier-Pages, J. Jaubert, and J.

Gattuso, 2003: Interacting effects of CO

partial pressure and temperature on

photosynthesis and calcification in a scleractinian coral. Global Change

Biology, 9(11), 1660-1668.

Riadh, S.M., R.M. Chowdhury, and A. Ishtiaque, 2012: Community-based Climate

Change Adaptation: Planning through Nishorgo Network. USAID’s Integrated

Protected Area Co-Management Project (IPAC), Dhaka, Bangladesh, 35 pp.

Ridgeway, K.R., 2007: Long-term trend and decadal variability of the southward

penetration of the East Australian Current. Geophysical Research Letters, 34,

L13613, doi:10.1029/2007GL030393.

Rittel, H.W.J. and M.M. Webber, 1973: Dilemmas in a general theory of planning.

Policy Sciences, 4(2), 155-169.

Rivadeneira, M.M. and M. Fernández, 2005: Shifts in southern endpoints of

distribution in rocky intertidal species along the south-eastern Pacific

coast.Journal of Biogeography, 32(2), 203-209.

Rodolfo-Metalpa, R., F. Houlbrèque, É. Tambutté, F. Boisson, C. Baggini, F.P. Patti, R.

Jeffree, M. Fine, A. Foggo, J.-P. Gattuso, and J. M. Hall-Spencer, 2011: Coral and

mollusc resistance to ocean acidification adversely affected by warming. Nature

Climate Change, 1, 308-312.

Romieu, E., T. Welle, S. Schneiderbauer, M. Pelling, and C. Vinchon, 2010: Vulnerability

assessment within climate change and natural hazard contexts: revealing gaps

and synergies through coastal applications. Sustainability Science, 5(2), 159-

170.

Rosenzweig, C., W.D. Solecki, R. Blake, M. Bowman, C. Faris, V. Gornitz, R. Horton, K.

Jacob, A. LeBlanc, R. Leichenko, M. Linkin, D. Major, M. O’Grady, L. Patrick, E.

Sussman, G. Yohe, and R. Zimmerman, 2011: Developing coastal adaptation to

climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach,

tools, and strategies. Climatic Change, 106, 93-127.

Rozell, D.J. and T.F. Wong, 2010: Effects of climate change on groundwater resources

at Shelter Island (New York State, USA). Hydrogeology Journal, 18, 1657-1665.

Rupp-Armstrong, S. and R.J. Nicholls, 2007: Coastal and estuarine retreat: a

comparison of the application of managed realignment in England and

Germany. Journal of Coastal Research, 23(6), 1418-1430.

Ryan, A., R. Gorddard, N. Abel, A.M. Leitch, K.S. Alexander, and R.M. Wise, 2011:

Perceptions of Sea-Level Rise Risk and the Assessment of Managed Retreat

Policy: Results from an Exploratory Community Survey in Australia. The

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO): Climate

Adaptation National Research Flagship, Clayton, Australia, 49 pp.

407

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

Saito, Y., N. Chaimanee, T. Jarupongsakul, and J.P.M. Syvitski, 2007: Shrinking

megadeltas in Asia: sea-level rise and sediment reduction impacts from case

study of the Chao Phraya Delta. Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone

(LOICZ) INPRINT, 2007/2, 3-9.

Sales, R.F.M., 2009: Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal communities to climate

variability and sea-level rise: their implications for integrated coastal management

in Cavite City, Philippines. Ocean and Coastal Management, 52(7), 395-404.

Salisbury, J., M. Green, C. Hunt, and J. Campbell, 2008: Coastal acidification by rivers:

a new threat to shellfish? EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical

Union, 89(50), 513.

Sallenger, A., R. Morton, C. Fletcher, E.R. Thierler, and P. Howd, 2000: Discussion of

‘Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion’ by Leatherman et al. (2000). EOS,

Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 81(38), 436.

Sanchez-Arcilla, A., J.A. Jimenez, H.I. Valdemoro, and V. Gracia, 1998: Implications

of climatic change on Spanish Mediterranean low-lying coasts: the Ebro Delta

case. Journal of Coastal Research, 24, 306-316.

Saroar, M. and J. Routray, 2010: Adaptation in situ or retreat? A multivariate

approach to explore the factors that guide the peoples’ preference against the

impacts of sea level rise in coastal Bangladesh. Local Environment: The

International Journal of Justice and Sustainability, 15(7), 663-686.

Savage, C., S.F. Thrush, A.M. Lohrer, and J.E. Hewitt, 2012: Ecosystem services

transcend boundaries: estuaries provide resource subsidies and influence

functional diversity in coastal benthic communities. PLoS One,7(8), e42708,

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0042708.

Schleupner, C., 2008: Evaluation of coastal squeeze and its consequences for the

Caribbean island Martinique. Ocean and Coastal Management, 51, 383-390.

Schmitt, K., T. Albers, T.T. Pham, and S.C. Dinh, 2013: Site-specific and integrated

adaptation to climate change in the coastal mangrove zone of Soc Trang

Province, Vietnam. Journal of Coastal Conservation, 17(3), 545-558.

Scott, D., B. Amelung, S. Becken, J.-P. Ceron, G. Dubois, S. Gössling, P. Peeters, and

M.C. Simpson, 2008: Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global

Challenges. World Tourism Organization, Madrid, Spain, and United Nations

Environment Programme, Paris, France, 256 pp.

Scott, D., M.C. Simpson, and R. Sim, 2012: The vulnerability of Caribbean coastal

tourism to scenarios of climate change related to sea level rise. Journal of

Sustainable Tourism, 20, 883-898.

Seitzinger, S.P., E. Mayorga, A.F. Bouwman, C. Kroeze, A.H.W. Beusen, G. Billen, G.

Van Drecht, E. Dumont, B.M. Fekete, J. Garnier, and J.A. Harrison, 2010: Global

river nutrient export: a scenario analysis of past and future trends.Global

Biogeochemical Cycles, 24(4), GB0A08, doi:10.1029/2009GB003587.

Semedo, A., K. Sušelj, A. Rutgersson, and A. Sterl, 2011: A global view on the wind

sea and swell climate and variability from ERA-40. Journal of Climate, 24(5),

1461-1479.

Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C.M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo,

J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X.

Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural

physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters

to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I

and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros,

T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K.

Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 109-230.

Sesil, F.A., F. Karsil, I. Colkesen, and N. Akyol, 2009: Monitoring the changing position

of coastlines using aerial and satellite image data: an example from the eastern

coast of Trabzon, Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 153, 391-403.

Setiadi, N., J. Birkmann, and P. Buckle (eds.), 2010: Disaster Risk Reduction and

Climate Change Adaptation: Case Studies from South and Southeast Asia.

Studies of the University: Research, Counsel, Education (SOURCE), Publication

Series of United Nations Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-

EHS) No. 14/2010, UNU-EHS, Bonn, Germany, 130 pp.

Seto, K.C., 2011: Exploring the dynamics of migration to mega-delta cities in Asia

and Africa: contemporary drivers and future scenarios.Global Environmental

Change: Human and Policy Dimensions, 21(1), S94-S107.

Shaffer, G., S.M. Olsen, and J.O.P. Pedersen, 2009: Long-term ocean oxygen depletion

in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. Nature Geoscience,2(2),

105-109.

Shepard, C.C., C.M. Crain, and M.W. Beck, 2011: The protective role of coastal

marshes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.PLoS One, 6(11), e27374,

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027374.

Sheppard, C., D.J. Dixon, M. Gourlay, A. Sheppard, and R. Payet, 2005: Coral mortality

increases wave energy reaching shores protected by reef flats: examples from

the Seychelles.Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 64(2-3), 223-234.

Sherman, K., I.M. Belkin, K.D. Friedland, J. O’Reilly, and K. Hyde, 2009: Accelerated

warming and emergent trends in fisheries biomass yields of the world’s large

marine ecosystems. Ambio, 38(4), 215-224.

Shipman, B. and T. Stojanovic, 2007: Facts, fictions, and failures of integrated coastal

zone management in Europe. Coastal Management, 35(2), 375-398.

Silverman, J., B. Lazar, L. Cao, K. Caldeira, and J. Erez, 2009: Coral reefs may start

dissolving when atmospheric CO

doubles.Geophysical Research Letters, 36,

L05606, doi:10.1029/2008GL036282.

Simeoni, U. and C. Corbau, 2009: A review of the Delta Po evolution (Italy) related

to climatic changes and human impacts. Geomorphology, 107, 64-71.

Simpson, M.C., D. Scott, M. Harrison, N. Silver, E. O’Keeffe, R. Sim, S. Harrison, M.

Taylor, G. Lizcano, M. Rutty, H. Stager, J. Oldham, M. Wilson, M. New, J. Clarke,

O.J. Day, N. Fields, J. Georges, R. Waithe, and P. McSharry, 2010: Quantification

and Magnitude of Losses and Damages Resulting from the Impacts of Climate

Change: Modelling the Transformational Impacts and Costs of Sea Level Rise

in the Caribbean (Summary Document). United Nations Development

Programme (UNDP), Barbados and the Organization of Eastern Caribbean

States, Christ Church, Barbados, 266 pp.

Smith, J.M., M.A. Cialone, T.V. Wamsley, and T.O. McAlpin, 2010: Potential impact of

sea level rise on coastal surges in southeast Louisiana. Ocean Engineering,

37(1), 37-47.

Smith, J.R., P. Fong, and R.F. Ambrose, 2006: Dramatic declines in mussel bed

community diversity: response to climate change? Ecology, 87, 1153-1161.

Smith, K., 2011: We are seven billion.Nature Climate Change, 1(7), 331-335.

Smith, S., R. Buddemeier, F. Wulff, D. Swaney, V. Camacho-Ibar, L. David, V. Dupra, J.

Kleypas, M. San Diego-McGlone, C. McLaughlin, and P. Sandhei, 2005: C, N, P

fluxes in the coastal zone. In: Coastal Fluxes in the Anthropocene: The Land-

Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone Project of the International

Geosphere-Biosphere Programme [Crossland C.J., H.H. Kremer, H.J. Lindeboom,

J.I. Marshall Crossland, and M.D.A. Le Tissier (eds.)]. Global Change – the IGBP

Series, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, Germany, pp. 95-143.

Somero, G.N., 2012: The physiology of global change: linking patterns to

mechanism.Nature Geoscience, 4, 39-61.

Sovacool, B., A. D’Agostino, H. Meenawat, and A. Rawlani, 2011: Expert views of

climate change adaptation in least developed Asia. Journal of Environmental

Management, (97), 78-88.

Sovacool, B., A. D’Agostino, A. Rawlani, and H. Meenawat, 2012: Improving climate

change adaptation in least developed Asia. Environmental Science and Policy,

(21), 112-125.

Statham, P.J., 2012: Nutrients in estuaries – an overview and the potential impacts

of climate change.The Science of the Total Environment, 434, 213-227.

Sterl, A., H. van den Brink, H. de Vries, R. Haarsma, and E. van Meijgaard, 2009: An

ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea

in a changing climate. Ocean Science, 5(3), 369-378.

Sterrett, C., 2011: Review of Climate Change Adaptation Practices in South Asia.

Oxfam Research Report, Oxford, UK, 100 pp.

Stive, M.J.C., L.O. Fresco, P. Kabat, B.W.A.H. Parmet, and C.P. Veerman, 2011: How

the Dutch plan to stay dry over the next century. Proceedings of the Institution

of Civil Engineers, 164(3), 114-121.

Stojanovic, T. and R.C. Ballinger, 2009: Integrated coastal management: a

comparative analysis of four UK initiatives. Applied Geography, 29(1), 49-62.

Stojanovic, T. and N. Barker, 2008: Improving governance through local coastal

partnerships in the UK. Geographical Journal, 174(4), 344-360.

Stojanovic, T., R.C. Ballinger, and C.S. Lalwani, 2004: Successful integrated coastal

management: measuring it with research and contributing to wise practice.

Ocean and Coastal Management, 47, 273-298.

Stokes, D.J., T.R. Healy, and P.J. Cooke, 2010: Expansion dynamics of monospecific,

temperate mangroves and sedimentation in two embayments of a barrier-

enclosed lagoon, Tauranga Harbour, New Zealand. Journal of Coastal Research,

26(1), 113-122.

Storbjörk, S., 2010: It takes more to get a ship to change course: barriers for

organizational learning and local climate adaptation in Sweden. Journal of

Environmental Policy and Planning, 12(3), 235-254.

Storbjörk, S. and J. Hedren, 2011: Institutional capacity-building for targeting sea-

level rise in the climate adaptation of Swedish coastal zone management.

Lessons from Coastby.Ocean and Coastal Management, 54(3), 265-273.

408

Chapter 5 Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

Storlazzi, C.D., E. Elias, M.E. Field, and M.K. Presto, 2011: Numerical modeling of the

impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment

transport.Coral Reefs, 30, 83-96.

Stratten, L., M.S. O’Neill, M.E. Kruk, and M.L. Bell, 2008: The persistent problem of

malaria: addressing the fundamental causes of a global killer. Social Science

and Medicine, 67, 854-862.

Strauss, B.H., 2013: Rapid accumulation of committed sea level rise from global

warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States

of America, 110(34), 13699-13700.

Stutz, M.L. and O.H. Pilkey, 2011: Open-ocean barrier islands: global influence of

climatic, oceanographic, and depositional settings. Journal of Coastal

Research,27(2), 207-222.

Sumaila, R., W. Cheung, V. Lam, D. Pauly, and S. Herrick, 2011: Climate change

impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries. Nature Climate

Change, 1(9), 449-456.

Swanson, R.L. and R.E. Wilson, 2008: Increased tidal ranges coinciding with Jamaica

Bay development contribute to marsh flooding. Journal of Coastal Research,

24(6), 1565-1569.

Syvitski, J.P.M., 2008: Deltas at risk. Sustainability Science, 3, 23-32.

Syvitski, J.P.M. and A. Kettner, 2011: Sediment flux and the Anthropocene.

Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society A, 369, 957-975.

Syvitski, J.P.M., C.J. Vorosmarty, A.J. Kettner, and P. Green, 2005: Impact of humans

on the flux of terrestrial sediment to the global coastal ocean. Science,

308(5720), 376 -380.

Syvitski, J.P.M., A.J. Kettner, I. Overeem, E.W.H. Hutton, M.T. Hannon, G.R. Brakenridge,

J. Day, C. Vörösmarty, Y. Saito, L. Giosan, and R.J. Nicholls, 2009: Sinking deltas

due to human activities. Nature Geoscience, 2, 681-686.

Tabet, L. and L. Fanning, 2012: Integrated coastal zone management under

authoritarian rule: an evaluation framework of coastal governance in Egypt.

Ocean and Coastal Management, 61, 1-9.

Teatini, P., N. Castelletto,M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati,C. Janna,E. Cairo,D. Marzorati,D.

Colombo,A. Ferretti,A. Bagliani,and F. Bottazzi, 2011: Geomechanical response

to seasonal gas storage in depleted reservoirs: a case study in the Po River

basin, Italy. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 116(F2), F02002,

doi:10.1029/2010JF001793.

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modeling sea level rise impacts on

storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032,

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032.

Teneva, L., M. Karnauskas, C.A. Logan, L. Bianucci, J.C. Currie, and J.A. Kleypas, 2011:

Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal

stress and potential adaptation rates.Coral Reefs, 31(1), 1-12.

Terry, J.P. and A.C. Falkland, 2010: Responses of atoll freshwater lenses to storm-

surge overwash in the Northern Cook Islands. Hydrology Journal, 18, 749-759.

Thomsen, J., M.A. Gutowska, J. Saphšrster, A. Heinemann, K. TrŸbenbach, J. Fietzke,

C. Hiebenthal, A. Eisenhauer, A. Kšrtzinger, M. Wahl, and F. Melzner, 2010:

Calcifying invertebrates succeed in a naturally CO

enriched coastal habitat but

are threatened by high levels of future acidification. Marine Biology, 7(11),

3879-3891.

Thomsen, J., I. Casties, C. Pansch, A. Körtzinger, and F. Melzner, 2013: Food availability

outweighs ocean acidification effects in juvenile Mytilus edulis: laboratory and

field experiments. Global Change Biology, 19, 1017-1027.

Timmermann, A., S. McGregor, and F.F. Jin, 2010: Wind effects on past and future

regional sea level trends in the southern Indo-Pacific. Journal of Climate,

23(16), 4429-4437.

Tobey, J., P. Rubinoff, D. Robadue Jr., G. Ricci, R. Volk, J. Furlow, and G. Anderson,

2010: Practicing coastal adaptation to climate change: lessons from integrated

coastal management. Coastal Management, 38, 317-335.

Tol, R.S.J., 2002: Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part 1: benchmark

estimates. Environmental and Resource Economics, 21(1), 47-73.

Tol, R.S.J., 2007: The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea

level rise: an application of FUND.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for

Global Change, 12(5), 741-753.

Törnqvist, T.E., D.J. Wallace, J.E.A. Storms, J.W.R.L. van Dam, M. Blaauw, M.S. Derksen,

C.J.W. Klerks, C. Meijneken, and E.M.A. Snijders, 2008: Mississippi Delta

subsidence primarily caused by compaction of Holocene strata. Nature

Geoscience,1, 173-176.

Tran, T.T. and V. Nitivattananon, 2011: Adaptation to flood risks in Ho Chi Minh City,

Vietnam. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management,

3, 61-73.

Trenhaile, A.S., 2010: Modeling cohesive clay coast evolution and response to climate

change. Marine Geology, 277, 11-20.

Trenhaile, A.S., 2011: Predicting the response of hard and soft rock coasts to changes

in sea level and wave height. Climatic Change, 109, 599-615.

Tribbia, J. and S.C. Moser, 2008: More than information: what coastal managers need

to plan for climate change.Environmental Science and Policy, 11(4), 315-328.

Tribollet, A., C. Godinot, M. Atkinson, and C. Langdon, 2009: Effects of elevated pCO

on dissolution of coral carbonates by microbial euendoliths. Global

Biogeochemical Cycles, 23(3), GB3008, doi:10.1029/2008GB003286.

Trotman, A., R.M. Gordon, S.D. Hutchinson, R. Singh, and D. McRae-Smith, 2009:

Policy responses to GEC impacts on food availability and affordability in the

Caribbean community. Environmental Sciences and Policy, 12, 529-541.

Tunstall, S. and S. Tapsell, 2007: Local communities under threat: managed realignment

at Corton Village, Suffolk. In: Managing Coastal Vulnerability [Fadden, L.M., R.J.

Nicholls, and E. Penning-Rowsell (eds.)]. Emerald Group Publishing Limited,

Bingley, UK, pp. 97-120.

UNCTAD, 2009: Maritime Transport and the Climate Change Challenge.

TD/B/C.I/MEM.1/2, Note for Multi-year Expert Meeting on Transport and Trade

Facilitation, Geneva, Switzerland, 16-18 February 2009, United Nations

Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretariat, Geneva,

Switzerland, 17 pp.

UNDP, 2010: Community-based Adaptation to Climate Change Brochure. United

Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Bureau of Development Policy:

Energy & Environment Group, UNDP GEF Small Grants Programme, and UNDP

GEF Community-Based Adaptation Programme, New York, NY, USA, 2 pp.

UNEP, 2009: Sustainable Coastal Tourism: An Integrated Planning and Management

Approach. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Paris, France, 154

pp.

UNEP, 2010: Technologies for Climate Change Adaptation: Coastal Erosion and

Flooding. TNA Guidebook Series,UNEPRisø Centre on Energy,Climate and

Sustainable Development, Roskilde, Denmark, 150 pp.

UNISDR, 2009: Adaptation to Climate Change by Reducing Disaster Risks: Country

Practices and Lessons. Briefing Note 02, United Nations International Strategy

for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Geneva, Switzerland, 12 pp., www.unisdr.org/

files/11775_UNISDRBriefingAdaptationtoClimateCh.pdf.

UNISDR, 2011: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk,

Redefining Development. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster

Reduction (UNISDR) Secretariat, Information Press, Oxford, UK, 178 pp.

Unnikrishnan, A.S., M.R.R. Kumar, and B. Sindhu, 2011: Tropical cyclones in the Bay

of Bengal and extreme sea level projections along the east coast of India in a

future climate scenario. Current Science, 101(3), 327-331.

Urwin, K. and A. Jordan, 2008: Does public policy support or undermine climate change

adaptation? Exploring policy interplay across different scales of governance.

Global Environmental Change, 18(1), 180-191.

USACE, 2011: Sea-level Change Considerations for Civil Works Programs. Engineer

Circular No. 1165-2-212, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), 32 pp.

USAID, 2009: Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change – A Guidebook for Development

Planners. U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Washington, DC,

USA, 147 pp.

USCCSP, 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science

Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, U.S. Geological

Survey, Reston, VA, USA, 459 pp.

Vafeidis, A.T., R.J. Nicholls, L. McFadden, R.S.J. Tol, J. Hinkel, T. Spencer, P.S. Grashoff,

G. Boot, and R.J.T. Klein, 2008: A new global coastal database for impact and

vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(4), 917-

924.

Vafeidis, A., B. Neumann, J. Zimmermann, and R.J. Nicholls, 2011:MR9: Analysis of

Land Area and Population in the Low-Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ). UK

Government’s Foresight Project, Migration and Global Environmental Change,

Government Office for Science, London, UK, 171 pp.

van Hooidonk, R., J.A. Maynard, and S. Planes, 2013: Temporary refugia for coral

reefs in a warming world. Nature Climate Change, 3, 508-511.

van Kleef, E., H. Bambrick, and S. Hales, 2010: The geographic distribution of dengue

fever and the potential influence of global climate change. TropIKA.net,

journal.tropika.net/pdf/tropika/2010nahead/a01v2n1.pdf.

van Vuuren, D.P., J. Edmonds, M. Kainuma, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, K. Hibbard, G.C.

Hurtt, T. Kram, V. Krey, J.-F. Lamarque, T. Masui, M. Meinshausen, N. Nakićenović,

S.J. Smith, and S.K. Rose, 2011: The representative concentration pathways: an

overview.Climatic Change, 109(1), 5-31.

409

Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas Chapter 5

van Vuuren, D.P., K. Riahi, R. Moss, J. Edmonds, A. Thomson, N. Nakićenović, T. Kram,

F. Berkhout, R. Swart, A. Janetos, S.K. Rose, and N. Arnell, 2012: A proposal

for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different

climate research communities.Global Environmental Change, 22, 21-35.

Vaquer-Sunyer, R. and C.M. Duarte, 2011: Temperature effects on oxygen thresholds

for hypoxia in marine benthic organisms.Global Change Biology, 17(5), 1788-

1797.

Vignola, R., B. Locatelli, C. Martinez, and P. Imbach, 2009. Ecosystem-based

adaptation to climate change: what role for policy-makers, society and

scientists? Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 14(8),

691-696.

Vineis, P., Q. Chan, and A. Khan, 2011: Climate change impacts on water salinity

and health. Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, 1(1), 5-10.

Waldbusser, G.G., H. Bergschneider, and M.A. Green, 2010: Size-dependent pH

effect on calcification in post-larval hard clam Mercenaria spp.Marine Ecology

Progress Series, 417, 171-182.

Walling, D.E., 2006: Human impact on land-ocean sediment transfer by the world’s

rivers. Geomorphology, 79 (3-4), 192-216.

Walling, D.E., 2012: The role of dams in the global sediment budget. In: Erosion

and Sediment Yields in the Changing Environment. Proceedings the IAHS-

ICCE International Symposium held at the Institute of Mountain Hazards and

Environment, CAS-Chengdu, China, 11–15 October 2012. International

Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), IAHS-AISH Publication 356,

Rennes, France, pp. 3-11.

Walling, D.E. and D. Fang, 2003: Recent trends in the suspended sediment loads of

the world’s rivers. Global and Planetary Change, 39, 111-126.

Walsh, K.J.E., K.L. McInnes, and J.L. McBride, 2012: Climate change impacts on

tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific – a regional

assessment. Global and Planetary Change, 80-81, 149-164.

Walters, C., 1986: Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources. MacMillan,

New York, NY, USA, 374 pp.

Walters, C., 1997: Challenges in adaptive management of riparian and coastal

ecosystems. Ecology and Society, 1(2), 1, www.consecol.org/vol1/iss2/art1/.

Wang, S., R. McGrath, J. Hanafin, P. Lynch, T. Semmler, and P. Nolan, 2008: The impact

of climate change on storm surges over Irish waters. Ocean Modelling,

25(1-2), 83-94.

Wassmann, R., S.V.K. Jagadish, K. Sumfleth, H. Pathak, G. Howell, A. Ismail, R. Serraj,

E. Redona, R.K. Singh, and S. Heuer, 2009: Chapter 3: Regional vulnerability

of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation.

In: Advances in Agronomy, Vol. 102 [Sparks, D.L. (ed.)]. Elsevier Science and

TechnologyAcademic Press, Waltham, MA, USA, pp. 91-133.

Webb, A.P. and P.S. Kench, 2010: The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level

rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central

Pacific. Global and Planetary Change, 72, 234-246.

Webb, M.D. and K.W.F. Howard, 2011: Modeling the transient response of saline

intrusion to rising sea-levels. Ground Water, 49(4), 560-569.

Webster, I.T. and G.P. Harris, 2004: Anthropogenic impacts on the ecosystems of

coastal lagoons: modelling fundamental biogeochemical processes and

management implications. Marine and Freshwater Research, 55, 67-78.

Wernberg, T., B.D. Russell, M.S. Thomsen, C.F. Gurgel, C.J. Bradshaw, E.S. Poloczanska,

and S.D. Connell, 2011a: Seaweed communities in retreat from ocean

warming. Current Biology, 21(21), 1828-1832.

Wernberg, T., B.D. Russell, P.J. Moore, S.D. Ling, D.A. Smale, A. Campbell, M.A.

Coleman, P.D. Steinberg, G.A. Kendrick, and S.D. Connell, 2011b: Impacts of

climate change in a global hotspot for temperate marine biodiversity and

ocean warming. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology,

400(1-2), 7-16.

Wetz, M.S. and H.W. Paerl, 2008: Estuarine phytoplankton responses to hurricanes

and tropical storms with different characteristics (trajectory, rainfall, winds).

Estuaries and Coasts, 31(2), 419-429.

White, I. and T. Falkland, 2010: Management of freshwater lenses on small Pacific

islands. Hydrogeology Journal, 18, 227-246.

White, I., T. Falkland, P. Perez, A. Dray, T. Metutera, E. Metia, and M. Overmars, 2007:

Challenges in freshwater management in low coral atolls. Journal of Cleaner

Production, 15, 1522-1528.

Wilby, R.L., R.J. Nicholls, R. Warren, H.S. Wheater, D. Clarke, and R.J. Dawson, 2011:

Keeping nuclear and other coastal sites safe from climate change. Proceedings

of the Institution of Civil Engineers, 164(3), 129-136.

Wisshak, M., C. Schönberg, A. Form, and A. Freiwald, 2012: Ocean acidification

accelerates reef bioerosion. PLoS ONE, 7(9), e45124, doi:10.1371/

journal.pone.0045124.

Woodroffe, C.D. and C.V. Murray-Wallace, 2012: Sea-level rise and coastal change:

the past as a guide to the future. Quaternary Science Reviews, 54, 4-11.

Wootton, J.T. and C.A. Pfister, 2012: Carbon system measurements and potential

climatic drivers at a site of rapidly declining ocean pH.PLoS ONE, 7(12),

e53396, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0053396.

Wootton, J.T., C.A. Pfister, and J.D. Forester, 2008: Dynamic patterns and ecological

impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of

America, 105, 18848-18853.

World Bank, 2011: The Cost of Adapting to Extreme Weather Events in a Changing

Climate. Bangladesh Development Series Paper No. 67845, The World Bank,

Dhaka, Bangladesh and Washington DC, USA, 41 pp.

Wu, H.Y., D.H. Zou, and K.S. Gao, 2008: Impacts of increased atmospheric CO

concentration on photosynthesis and growth of micro- and macro-algae.

Science in China Series C: Life Sciences, 51, 1144-1150.

Xia, J., R.A. Falconer, B. Lin, and G. Tan, 2011: Estimation of future coastal flood risk

in the Severn Estuary due to a barrage.Journal of Flood Risk Management, 4(3),

247-259.

Yamano, H., K. Sugihara, and K. Nomura, 2011: Rapid poleward range expansion of

tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures.Geophysical

Research Letters, 38(4), L04601, doi:10.1029/2010GL046474.

Yang, S.L., J.D. Milliman, P. Li, and K. Xu, 2011: 50,000 dams later: erosion of the

Yangtze River and its delta. Global and Planetary Change, 75, 14-20.

Yara, Y., M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber, and Y.

Yamanaka, 2012: Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward

expansion of coral habitats around Japan. Biogeosciences, 9, 4955-4968.

Yasuhara, K., S. Murakami, N. Mimura, H. Komine, and J. Recio, 2007: Influence of

global warning on coastal infrastructural instability. Sustainability Science, 2,

13-25.

Yin, J, Z. Yin, J. Wang, and S. Xu, 2012: National assessment of coastal vulnerability

to sea-level rise for the Chinese coast. Journal Coastal Conservation, 16(1),

123-133.

Yohe, G., K. Knee, and P. Kirshen, 2011: On the economics of coastal adaptation

solutions in an uncertain world.Climatic Change, 106(1), 71-92.

Yoo, G., J.H. Hwang, and C. Choi, 2011: Development and application of a

methodology for vulnerability assessment of climate change in coastal cities.

Ocean and Coastal Management, 54(7), 524-534.

Zeitlin, H.L.,I. Meliane,S. Davidson,T. Sandwith, and J.Hoekstra, 2012: Ecosystem-

based adaptation in marine and coastal ecosystems. Environmental Sciences,

25,1-10.

Zevenbergen, C., S. van Herk, J. Rijke, P. Kabat, P. Bloemen, R. Ashley, A. Speers, B.

Gersonius, and W. Veerbeek, 2013: Taming global flood disasters. Lessons

learned from Dutch experience. Natural Hazards, 65, 1217-1225.

Zhang, J., D. Gilbert, A.J. Gooday, L. Levin, S.W.A. Naqvi, J.J. Middelburg, M. Scranton,

W. Ekau, A. Peña, B. Dewitte, T. Oguz, P.M.S. Monteiro, E. Urban, N.N. Rabalais,

V. Ittekkot, W.M. Kemp, O. Ulloa, R. Elmgren, E. Escobar-Briones, and A.K. Van

der Plas, 2010: Natural and human-induced hypoxia and consequences for

coastal areas: synthesis and future development. Biogeosciences,7(5), 1443-

1467.

Zhang, X. and J.A. Church, 2012: Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability

in the Pacific Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(21), doi:10.1029/

2012GL053240.

Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, and G. Li, 2004: Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of

trends in extreme values. Journal of Climate, 17, 1945-1952.

Zhang, Y., P. Bi, J.E. Hiller, Y. Sun, and P. Ryan, 2007: Climate variations and bacillary

dysentery in northern and southern cities of China. Journal of Infection, 55(2),

194-200.

Zhu, G., X. Xu, Z. Ma, L. Xu, and J.H. Porter, 2012: Spatial dynamics and zoning of

coastal land-use change along Bohai Bay, China, during 1979-2008.Journal of

Coastal Research, 28(5), 1186-1196.