1655

The Ocean

Coordinating Lead Authors:

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Australia), Rongshuo Cai (China)

Lead Authors:

Elvira S. Poloczanska (Australia), Peter G. Brewer (USA), Svein Sundby (Norway), Karim Hilmi

(Morocco), Victoria J. Fabry (USA), Sukgeun Jung (Republic of Korea)

Contributing Authors:

William Skirving (USA), Dáithí Stone (Canada/South Africa/USA), Michael T. Burrows (UK),

Johann Bell (New Caledonia), Long Cao (China), Simon Donner (Canada), C. Mark Eakin (USA),

Arne Eide (Norway), Benjamin Halpern (USA), Charles R. McClain (USA), Mary I. O’Connor

(Canada), Camille Parmesan (USA), R. Ian Perry (Canada), Anthony J. Richardson (Australia),

Christopher J. Brown (Australia), David Schoeman (Australia), Sergio Signorini (USA),

William Sydeman (USA), Rui Zhang (China), Ruben van Hooidonk (USA), Stewart M. McKinnell

(PICES/Canada)

Review Editors:

Carol Turley (UK), Ly Omar (Senegal)

Volunteer Chapter Scientists:

Jo Davy (New Zealand), Sarah Lee (USA)

This chapter should be cited as:

Hoegh-Guldberg

, O., R. Cai, E.S. Poloczanska, P.G. Brewer, S. Sundby, K. Hilmi, V.J. Fabry, and S. Jung, 2014: The

Ocean. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution

of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

[Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada,

R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)].

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1655-1731.

1656

Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................................................... 1658

30.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 1662

30.1.1. Major Sub-regions within the Ocean .............................................................................................................................................. 1662

30.1.2. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change and Ocean Acidiﬁcation in Ocean Sub-regions ........................................................ 1662

30.2. Major Conclusions from Previous Assessments .................................................................................................... 1662

30.3. Regional Changes and Projections of Future Ocean Conditions .......................................................................... 1664

30.3.1. Physical Changes ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1664

30.3.1.1. Heat Content and Temperature ....................................................................................................................................... 1664

30.3.1.2. Sea Level ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1668

30.3.1.3. Ocean Circulation, Surface Wind, and Waves ................................................................................................................... 1671

30.3.1.4. Solar Insolation and Clouds ............................................................................................................................................. 1671

30.3.1.5. Storm Systems ................................................................................................................................................................. 1671

30.3.1.6. Thermal Stratiﬁcation ...................................................................................................................................................... 1672

30.3.2. Chemical Changes .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1673

30.3.2.1. Surface Salinity ................................................................................................................................................................ 1673

30.3.2.2. Ocean Acidiﬁcation ......................................................................................................................................................... 1673

30.3.2.3. Oxygen Concentration ..................................................................................................................................................... 1675

30.4. Global Patterns in the Response of Marine Organisms to Climate Change and Ocean Acidiﬁcation .................. 1677

30.5. Regional Impacts, Risks, and Vulnerabilities: Present and Future ........................................................................ 1677

30.5.1. High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems .............................................................................................................................................. 1677

30.5.1.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts ....................................................................................................................... 1678

30.5.1.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................................... 1681

30.5.2. Equatorial Upwelling Systems ........................................................................................................................................................ 1681

30.5.2.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts ....................................................................................................................... 1682

30.5.2.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................................... 1682

30.5.3. Semi-Enclosed Seas ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1683

30.5.3.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts ....................................................................................................................... 1683

30.5.3.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................................... 1685

30.5.4. Coastal Boundary Systems .............................................................................................................................................................. 1686

30.5.4.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts ....................................................................................................................... 1686

30.5.4.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................................... 1688

30.5.5. Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems ....................................................................................................................................... 1690

30.5.5.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts ....................................................................................................................... 1690

30.5.5.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................................... 1693

Table of Contents

1657

The Ocean Chapter 30

30.5.6. Subtropical Gyres ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1693

30.5.6.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts ....................................................................................................................... 1693

30.5.6.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................................... 1696

30.5.7. Deep Sea (>1000 m) ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1697

30.5.7.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts ....................................................................................................................... 1697

30.5.7.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................................... 1698

30.5.8. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Impacts with Conﬁdence Levels .............................................................................. 1698

30.6. Sectoral Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Responses .................................................................................... 1698

30.6.1. Natural Ecosystem Services ............................................................................................................................................................ 1699

30.6.2. Economic Sectors ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1701

30.6.2.1. Fisheries and Aquaculture ............................................................................................................................................... 1701

30.6.2.2. Tourism ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1704

30.6.2.3. Shipping .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1705

30.6.2.4. Offshore Energy and Mineral Resource Extraction and Supply ........................................................................................ 1705

30.6.3. Human Health ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1705

30.6.4. Ocean-Based Mitigation ................................................................................................................................................................. 1705

30.6.4.1. Deep Sea Carbon Sequestration ...................................................................................................................................... 1705

30.6.4.2. Offshore Renewable Energy ............................................................................................................................................ 1706

30.6.5. Maritime Security and Related Operations ..................................................................................................................................... 1706

30.7. Synthesis and Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 1706

30.7.1. Key Vulnerabilities and Risks .......................................................................................................................................................... 1708

30.7.2. Global Frameworks for Decision Making ........................................................................................................................................ 1711

30.7.3. Emerging Issues, Data Gaps, and Research Needs .......................................................................................................................... 1713

30.7.3.1. Changing Variability and Marine Impacts ........................................................................................................................ 1713

30.7.3.2. Surface Wind, Storms, and Upwelling .............................................................................................................................. 1713

30.7.3.3. Declining Oxygen Concentrations ................................................................................................................................... 1714

30.7.3.4. Ocean Acidiﬁcation ......................................................................................................................................................... 1714

30.7.3.5. Net Primary Productivity .................................................................................................................................................. 1714

30.7.3.6. Movement of Marine Organisms and Ecosystems ........................................................................................................... 1714

30.7.3.7. Understanding Cumulative and Synergistic Impacts ........................................................................................................ 1714

30.7.3.8. Reorganization of Ecosystems and Food Webs ................................................................................................................ 1714

30.7.3.9. Socio-ecological Resilience .............................................................................................................................................. 1715

References ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1715

Frequently Asked Questions

30.1: Can we reverse the impacts of climate change on the Ocean? ....................................................................................................... 1675

30.2: Does slower warming in the Ocean mean less impact on plants and animals? .............................................................................. 1677

30.3: How will marine primary productivity change with ocean warming and acidiﬁcation? .................................................................. 1682

30.4: Will climate change increase the number of “dead zones” in the Ocean? ..................................................................................... 1693

30.5: How can we use non-climate factors to manage climate change impacts on the Ocean? .............................................................. 1710

1658

Chapter 30 The Ocean

Executive Summary

The Ocean plays a central role in Earth’s climate and has absorbed 93% of the extra energy from the enhanced greenhouse effect

and approximately 30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO

) from the atmosphere. Regional responses are addressed here by

dividing the Ocean into seven sub-regions: High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems (HLSBS), Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems (EBUE),

Coastal Boundary Systems (CBS), Equatorial Upwelling Systems (EUS), Subtropical Gyres (STG), Semi-Enclosed Seas (SES), and the Deep Sea

(DS; >1000 m). An eighth region, Polar Seas, is dealt with by Chapter 28. {Figure 30-1; WGI AR5 6.3.1; WGI AR5 Boxes 3.1, 3.8}

Global average sea surface temperatures have increased since both the beginning of the 20th century and the 1950s (certain).

The average sea surface temperature (SST) of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans has increased by 0.65°C, 0.41°C, and 0.31°C,

respectively, over the period 1950–2009 (very likely, p-value ≤ 0.05).

Changes in the surface temperatures of the ocean basins are

consistent with temperature trends simulated by ocean-atmosphere models with anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing over the past

century (high confidence). Sub-regions within the Ocean also show robust evidence of change, with the influence of long-term patterns of variability

(e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)) contributing to variability at regional scales, and making

changes due to climate change harder to distinguish and attribute. {30.3.1; Figure 30-2e-g; Table 30-1; WGI AR5 2.4.2-3, 3.2, 10.4.1, 14}

Uptake of CO

has decreased ocean pH (approximately 0.1 unit over 100 years), fundamentally changing ocean carbonate chemistry

in all ocean sub-regions, particularly at high latitudes (high confidence). The current rate of ocean acidification is unprecedented within

the last 65 Ma (high confidence), if not the last 300 Ma (medium confidence). Warming temperatures, and declining pH and carbonate ion

concentrations, represent risks to the productivity of fisheries and aquaculture, and the security of regional livelihoods given the direct and

indirect effects of these variables on physiological processes (e.g., skeleton formation, gas exchange, reproduction, growth, and neural function)

and ecosystem processes (e.g., primary productivity, reef building and erosion) (high confidence). {6.1.2, 6.2-3, 30.3.2, 30.6; WGI AR5 3.8.2;

WGI AR5 Boxes 3.2, 5.3.1}

Regional changes observed in winds, surface salinity, stratification, ocean currents, nutrient availability, and oxygen depth profile

in many regions may be a result of anthropogenic GHG emissions (low to medium confidence). Marine organisms and ecosystems are

likely to change in response to these regional changes, although evidence is limited and responses uncertain. {6.2-3, 30.3, 30.5; WGI AR5 2.7,

3.3-8, 10.4.2, 10.4.4}

Most, if not all, of the Ocean will continue to warm and acidify, although the rates will vary regionally (high confidence). Differences

between Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are very likely to be minimal until 2040 (high confidence). Projected temperatures of

the surface layers of the Ocean, however, diverge as the 21st century unfolds and will be 1°C to 3°C higher by 2100 under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6

across most ocean sub-regions. The projected changes in ocean temperature pose serious risks and vulnerabilities to ocean ecosystems and

dependent human communities (robust evidence, high agreement; high confidence). {6.5, 30.3.1-2, 30.7.1; Figure 30-2e-g; Table 30-3; WGI AR5

11.3.3, 12.4.7; WGI AR5 Box 1.1}

Rapid changes in physical and chemical conditions within ocean sub-regions have already affected the distribution and abundance

of marine organisms and ecosystems.

Responses of species and ecosystems to climate change have been observed from every ocean sub-

region (high confidence). Marine organisms are moving to higher latitudes, consistent with warming trends (high confidence), with fish and

zooplankton migrating at the fastest rates, particularly in HLSBS regions. Changes to sea temperature have also altered the phenology, or timing

of key life-history events such as plankton blooms, and migratory patterns and spawning in fish and invertebrates, over recent decades

(medium confidence). There is medium to high agreement that these changes pose significant uncertainties and risks to fisheries, aquaculture,

and other coastal activities. Ocean acidification maybe driving similar changes (low confidence), although there is limited evidence and low

agreement at present. The associated risks will intensify as ocean warming and acidification continue. {6.3-4, 30.4-5; Table 30-3; Box CC-MB}

Regional risks and vulnerabilities to ocean warming and acidification can be compounded by non-climate related stressors such

as pollution, nutrient runoff from land, and over-exploitation of marine resources, as well as natural climate variability (high

confidence).

These influences confound the detection and attribution of the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on ecosystems

1659

The Ocean Chapter 30

yet may also represent opportunities for reducing risks through management strategies aimed at reducing their influence, especially in CBS,

SES, and HLSBS. {5.3.4, 18.3.3-4, 30.1.2, 30.5-6}

Recent changes to wind and ocean mixing within the highly productive HLSBS, EBUE, and EUS are likely to influence energy

transfer to higher trophic levels and microbial processes. There is, however, limited evidence and low agreement on the direction and

magnitude of these changes and their relationship to ocean warming and acidification (low confidence). In cases where Net Primary Productivity

(NPP) increases or is not consumed (e.g., Benguela EBUE, low confidence), the increased transfer of organic carbon to deep regions can stimulate

microbial respiration and reduce O

levels (medium confidence). Oxygen concentrations are also declining in the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and

Indian Oceans (particularly EUS) due to reduced O

solubility at higher temperatures, and changes in ocean ventilation and circulation. {6.3.3,

30.3, 30.5.1-2, 30.5.5; Box CC-PP; WGI AR5 3.8.3}

Global warming will result in more frequent extreme events and greater associated risks to ocean ecosystems (high confidence).

In some cases (e.g., mass coral bleaching and mortality), projected increases will eliminate ecosystems, and increase risks and vulnerabilities to

coastal livelihoods and food security (e.g., CBS in Southeast Asia; SES, CBS, and STG in the Indo-Pacific) (medium to high confidence). Reducing

stressors not related to climate change represents an opportunity to strengthen the ecological resilience within these regions, which may help

them survive some projected changes in ocean temperature and chemistry. {5.4, 30.5.3-4, 30.5.6, 30.6.1; Figure 30-4; Box CC-CR; IPCC, 2012}

The highly productive HLSBS in the Northeastern Atlantic has changed in response to warming (medium evidence, high agreement),

with a range of consequences for fisheries. These ecosystems are responding to recent warming, with the greatest changes being observed

since the late 1970s in the phenology, distribution, and abundance of plankton assemblages, and the reorganization of fish assemblages (high

confidence). There is medium confidence that these changes will have both positive and negative implications depending on the particular

HLSBS fishery and the time frame. {6.4.1.1, 6.5.3, 30.5.1, 30.6.2.1; Boxes CC-MB, 6-1}

EUS, which support highly productive fisheries off equatorial Africa and South America, have warmed over the past 60 years

(Pacific EUS: 0.43°C, Atlantic EUS: 0.54°C; very likely, p-value ≤ 0.05). Although warming is consistent with changes in upwelling intensity,

there is low confidence in our understanding of how EUS will change, especially in how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other patterns

of variability will interact in a warmer world. The risk, however, of changes to upwelling increases with average global temperature, posing

significant uncertainties for dependent ecosystems, communities, and fisheries. {30.5.2; WGI AR5 14.4}

The surface waters of the SES show significant warming from 1982 and most CBS show significant warming since 1950. Warming

of the Mediterranean has led to the recent spread of tropical species invading from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Projected warming increases

the risk of greater thermal stratification in some regions, which can lead to reduced O

ventilation and the formation of additional hypoxic

zones, especially in the Baltic and Black Seas (medium confidence). In some CBS, such as the East China Sea and Gulf of Mexico, these changes

are further influenced by the contribution of nutrients from coastal pollution contributing to the expansion of hypoxic (low O

) zones. These

changes are likely to influence regional ecosystems as well as dependent industries such as fisheries and tourism, although there is low confidence

in the understanding of potential changes and impacts. {5.3.4.3, 30.5.3-4; Table 30-1}

Coral reefs within CBS, SES, and STG are rapidly declining as a result of local stressors (i.e., coastal pollution, overexploitation)

and climate change (high confidence).

Elevated sea temperatures drive impacts such as mass coral bleaching and mortality (very high

confidence), with an analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projecting the loss of coral reefs from

most sites globally by 2050 under mid to high rates of ocean warming (very likely). {29.3.1.2, 30.5.3-4, 30.5.6; Figure 30-10; Box CC-CR}

The productive EBUE and EUS involve upwelling waters that are naturally high in CO

concentrations and low in pH, and hence

are potentially vulnerable to ocean warming and acidification (medium confidence).

There is limited evidence and low agreement as

to how upwelling systems are likely to change (low confidence). Declining O

and shoaling of the aragonite saturation horizon through ocean

acidification increase the risk of upwelling water being low in pH and O

, with impacts on coastal ecosystems and fisheries, as has been seen

already (e.g., California Current EBUE). These risks and uncertainties are likely to involve significant challenges for fisheries and associated

1660

Chapter 30 The Ocean

livelihoods along the west coasts of South America, Africa, and North America (low to medium confidence). {22.3.2.3, 30.3.2.2, 30.5.2, 30.5.5;

Boxes CC-UP, CC-PP}

Chlorophyll concentrations measured by satellites have decreased in the STG of the North Pacific, Indian, and North Atlantic

Oceans by 9%, 12%, and 11%, respectively, over and above the inherent seasonal and interannual variability from 1998 to 2010

(high confidence; p-value ≤ 0.05).

Significant warming over this period has resulted in increased water column stratification, reduced mixed

layer depth, and possibly decreases in nutrient availability and ecosystem productivity (limited evidence, medium agreement). The short time

frame of these studies against well-established patterns of long-term variability leads to the conclusion that these changes are about as likely

as not due to climate change. {6.3.4, 30.5.6; Table 30-1; Box CC-PP; WGI AR5 3.8.4}

The world’s most abundant yet difficult to access habitat, the DS, is changing (limited evidence, medium agreement), with

warming between 700 and 2000 m from 1957 to 2010 likely to involve a significant anthropogenic signal (medium confidence).

Decreased primary productivity of surface waters (e.g., STG) is likely to reduce the availability of organic carbon to DS ecosystems. Understanding

of the risks of climate change and ocean acidification to the DS is important given the size of the DS region but is limited (low confidence).

{30.5.7; Figure 30-2; WGI AR5 3.2.4; WGI AR5 Figures 3.2, 3.9}

Changes to surface wind and waves, sea level, and storm intensity will increase the vulnerability of ocean-based industries such

as shipping, energy, and mineral extraction (medium confidence).

Risks to equipment and people may be reduced through the design

and use of ocean-based infrastructure, together with the evolution of policy (medium agreement). Risks and uncertainties will increase with

further climate change. New opportunities as well as risks for shipping, energy, and mineral extraction, and international issues over access

and vulnerability, may accompany warming waters, particularly at high latitudes. {10.2.2, 10.4.4, 28.2.6, 28.3.4, 30.3.1, 30.6.2; IPCC, 2012}

Changes to ocean temperature, chemistry, and other factors are generating new challenges for fisheries, as well as benefits (high

agreement). Climate change is a risk to the sustainability of capture fisheries and aquaculture development, adding to the threats of over-

fishing and other non-climate stressors. In EUS and STG, shifts in the distribution and abundance of large pelagic fish stocks will have the

potential to create “winners” and “losers” among island nations and economies. There has been a boost in fish stocks of high-latitude fisheries

in the HLSBS of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, partly as a result of 30 years of increase in temperature. This is very likely to continue,

although some fish stocks will eventually decline. A number of practical adaptation options and supporting international policies can minimize

the risks and maximize the opportunities. {7.4.2, 7.5.1.1.2, 29.4, 30.6-7}

Adaptation strategies for ocean regions beyond coastal waters are generally poorly developed but will benefit from international

legislation and expert networks, as well as marine spatial planning (high agreement).

Fisheries and aquaculture industries with high

technology and/or large investments, as well as marine shipping and oil and gas industries, have high capacities for adaptation due to greater

development of environmental monitoring, modeling, and resource assessments. For smaller scale fisheries and developing nations, building

social resilience, alternative livelihoods, and occupational flexibility represent important strategies for reducing the vulnerability of ocean-

dependent human communities. Building strategies that include climate forecasting and early-warning systems can reduce impacts of warming

and ocean acidification in the short term. Overall, there is a strong need to develop ecosystem-based monitoring and adaptation strategies to

mitigate rapidly growing risks and uncertainties to the coastal and oceanic industries, communities, and nations (high agreement). {7.5.1.1,

30.6}

Significant opportunity exists within the Ocean and its sub-regions for reducing the CO

flux to the atmosphere (limited evidence,

medium agreement).

Ecosystems such as mangroves, seagrass, and salt marsh offer important carbon storage and sequestration opportunities

(e.g., Blue Carbon; limited evidence, medium agreement). Blue Carbon strategies can also be justified in terms of the ecosystem services provided

by coastal vegetated habitats such as protection against coastal erosion and storm damage, and maintenance of habitats for fisheries species.

Sequestration of anthropogenic CO

into deep ocean areas still faces considerable hurdles with respect to the expense, legality, and vulnerability

of storage sites and infrastructure. There are also significant opportunities with the Ocean for the development of offshore renewable energy

such as wind and tidal power. {5.5.7, 30.6.1, 30.6.4}

1661

The Ocean Chapter 30

International frameworks for collaboration and decision making are critically important for coordinating policy that will enable

mitigation and adaptation by the Ocean sectors to global climate change (e.g., United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

(UNCLOS)).

These international frameworks offer an opportunity to solve problems collectively, including improving fisheries management

across national borders (e.g., reducing illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing), responding to extreme events, and strengthening

international food security. Given the importance of the Ocean to all countries, there is a need for the international community to progress

rapidly to a “whole of ocean” strategy for responding to the risks and challenges posed by anthropogenic ocean warming and acidification.

{30.7.2}

1662

Chapter 30 The Ocean

30.1. Introduction

The Ocean exerts a profound influence as part of the Earth, interacting

with its atmosphere, cryosphere, land, and biosphere to produce planetary

onditions. It also directly influences human welfare through the provision

and transport of food and resources, as well as by providing cultural

and economic benefits. The Ocean also contributes to human welfare

indirectly through the regulation of atmospheric gas content and the

distribution of heat and water across the planet. This chapter examines

the extent to which regional changes to the Ocean can be accurately

detected and attributed to anthropogenic climate change and ocean

acidification, building on the conclusions of Chapter 6, which focuses

on the marine physiological and ecological responses to climate change

and ocean acidification. Detailed assessment of the role of recent physical

and chemical changes within the Ocean to anthropogenic climate change

is provided in WGI AR5 (particularly Chapters 2, 3, 13, and 14). In this

chapter, impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with climate change

and ocean acidification are assessed for seven ocean sub-regions, and

the expected consequences and adaptation options for key ocean-based

sectors are discussed. Polar oceans (defined by the presence of sea ice

in the north and by the Polar Front in the south) are considered in

Chapter 28.

Given that climate change affects coastal and low-lying sub-regions of

multiple nations, detailed discussion of potential risks and consequences

for these regions occurs in the relevant chapters of this report (e.g.,

Chapters 5 and 29, as well as other regional sections).

30.1.1. Major Sub-regions within the Ocean

The Ocean represents a vast region that stretches from the high tide

mark to the deepest oceanic trench (11,030 m) and occupies 71% of

the Earth’s surface. The total volume of the Ocean is approximately

1.3 billion km

, with approximately 72% of this volume being below

1000 m (Deep Sea (DS); Section 30.5.7). There are considerable challenges

in assessing the regional impacts of climate change on the Ocean.

Devising an appropriate structure to explore the influence of climate

change across the entire Ocean region and the broad diversity of life

forms and habitats is challenging. Longhurst (1998) identified more

than 50 distinct ecological provinces in the Ocean, defined by physical

characteristics and the structure and function of phytoplankton

communities. Longhurst’s scheme, however, yields far more sub-regions

than could be sensibly discussed in the space allocated within AR5.

Consequently, comparable principles were used with a division of the

non-polar ocean into seven larger sub-regions similar to Barber (1988).

It is recognized that these sub-regions do not always match physical-

chemical patterns or specific geographies, and that they interact strongly

with terrestrial regions through weather systems and the exchange of

materials. Different ocean sub-regions may also have substantially

different primary productivities and fishery catch. Notably, more than

80% of fishery catch is associated with three ocean sub-regions:

Northern Hemisphere High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems (HLSBS),

Coastal Boundary Systems (CBS), and Eastern Boundary Upwelling

Ecosystems (EBUE; Table SM30-1, Figure 30-1). The DS (>1000 m) is

included as a separate category that overlaps with the six other ocean

sub-regions dealt with in this chapter.

30.1.2. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change and

Ocean Acidification in Ocean Sub-regions

The central goal of this chapter is to assess the recent literature on the

Ocean as a region for changes that can be attributed to climate change

and/or ocean acidification. Detailed assessments of recent physical and

chemical changes in the Ocean are outlined in WGI AR5 Chapters 2, 3, 6,

10, 13, and 14. The detection and attribution of climate change and ocean

acidification on marine organisms and ecosystems is addressed in

Chapter 6. This chapter draws on these chapters to investigate regional

changes in the physical, chemical, ecological, and socioeconomic aspects

of the Ocean and the extent to which they can be attributed to climate

change and ocean acidification.

Generally, successful attribution to climate change occurs when the full

range of possible forcing factors is considered and those related to

climate change are found to be the most probable explanation for the

detected change in question (Section 18.2.1.1). Comparing detected

changes with the expectations of well-established scientific evidence

also plays a central role in the successful attribution of detected

changes. This was attempted for seven sub-regions of the Ocean. There

are a number of general limitations to the detection and attribution of

impacts to climate change and ocean acidification that are discussed

elsewhere (Section 18.2.1) along with challenges (Section 18.2.2).

Different approaches and “best practice” guidelines are discussed in

WGI AR5 Chapters 10 and 18, as well as in several other places (Hegerl

et al., 2007, 2010; Stott et al., 2010). The fragmentary nature of ocean

observing, structural uncertainty in model simulations, the influence of

long-term variability, and confounding factors unrelated to climate

change (e.g., pollution, introduced species, over-exploitation of fisheries)

represent major challenges (Halpern et al., 2008; Hoegh-Guldberg et

al., 2011b; Parmesan et al., 2011). Different factors may also interact

synergistically or antagonistically with each other and climate change,

further challenging the process of detection and attribution (Hegerl et

al., 2007, 2010).

30.2. Major Conclusions

from Previous Assessments

An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change and ocean

acidification on the Ocean as a region was not included in recent IPCC

assessments, although a chapter devoted to the Ocean in the Second

Assessment Report (SAR) did “attempt to assess the impacts of projected

regional and global climate changes on the oceans” (Ittekkot et al.,

1996). The fact that assessments for ocean and coastal systems are

spread throughout previous IPCC assessment reports reduces the

opportunity for synthesizing the detection and attribution of climate

change and ocean acidification across the physical, chemical, ecological,

and socioeconomic components of the Ocean and its sub-regions. The

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) concluded, however, that, while

terrestrial sub-regions are warming faster than the oceans, “Observations

since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global ocean has

increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been

taking up over 80% of the heat being added to the climate system”

(AR4 Synthesis Report, p. 30). AR4 also concluded that sea levels had

risen due to the thermal expansion of the Ocean but recognized that

1663

The Ocean Chapter 30

our understanding of the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets was

“too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an

upper boundary for sea level rise” (WGI AR4 SPM). Changes to ocean

temperature and density have been identified as having the potential

to alter large-scale ocean circulation. AR4 concluded that, with respect

to the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), “it is very likely that

up to the end of the 20th century the MOC was changing significantly

at interannual to decadal time scales” (WGI AR4 Box 5.1, p. 397), despite

limited evidence of a slowing MOC.

According to AR4, “Sea-level rise over the last 100 to150 years is probably

contributing to coastal erosion in many places,” including the east coast

<1000 mDepth >1000 m

Chlorophyll a concentration (mg m

–3

)

A. HLSBS-

North

4. CBS

5. EBUE

3. SES

2. EUS

6. STG

40 80 120 160

5 10 15 20

1B. HLSBS-

South

2. Equatorial Upwelling Systems (EUS)

1. High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems

(HLSBS)

1A. HLSBS-North

1B. HLSBS-South

3. Semi-Enclosed Seas (SES)

4. Coastal Boundary Systems (CBS)

5. Eastern Boundary Upwelling

Ecosystems (EBUE)

6. Subtropical Gyres (STG)

7. Deep Sea (DS; >1000 m)

Fish catch (10

tons yr

–1

)

(b)

(

Area (10

)

0.01 0.03 0.1 0.3 1 3 10

Figure 30-1 | (a) Separation of the world’s oceans into seven major sub-regions (excluding an eighth area, Polar Oceans, which is considered in Chapter 28; white shaded area).

The chlorophyll-a signal measured by SeaWiFS and averaged over the period from Sep 4, 1997 to 30 Nov 2010 (NASA) provides a proxy for differences in marine productivity

(with the caveats provided in Box CC-PP). Ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as key oceanographic features, provided the basis for separating the Ocean into the

sub-regions shown. The map insert shows the distribution of Deep Sea (DS) habitat (>1000 m; Bathypelagic and Abyssopelagic habitats combined). (b) Relationship between ﬁsh

catch and area for each ocean subregion. Left panel: average ﬁsh catch (as millions tons yr

–1

) for the period 1970–2006. Right panel: surface area (millions km

). The top three

bars (subregions HLSBS-North, CBS, and EBUE) cover 19% of the world oceans’ area and provide 76% of the world’s ﬁsh catches. Values for ﬁsh catch, area, and primary

productivity of the ocean sub-regions are listed in Table SM30-1.

1664

Chapter 30 The Ocean

f the United States and the United Kingdom (WGII AR4 Section 1.3.3.1,

p. 92). The AR4 assessment was virtually certain that rising atmospheric

carbon dioxide (CO

) had changed carbonate chemistry of the ocean (i.e.,

buffering capacity, carbonate and bicarbonate concentrations), and that

a decrease in surface pH of 0.1 had occurred over the global ocean

(calculated from the uptake of anthropogenic CO

between 1750 and

1994; Sabine et al., 2004; Raven et al., 2005; WGI AR4 Section 5.4.2.3;

WGI AR4 Table 7.3). Large-scale changes in ocean salinity were also

observed from 1955 to 1998 and were “characterized by a global

freshening in sub-polar latitudes and salinification of shallower parts of

the tropical and subtropical oceans” (WGI AR4 Chapter 5 ES, p. 387). In

this case, freshening was observed in the Pacific, with increased salinity

being observed in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (WGI AR4 Sections

5.3.2-5). These changes in surface salinity were qualitatively consistent

with expected changes to surface freshwater flux. Freshening of mid-

and high-latitude waters together with increased salinity at low latitudes

were seen as evidence “of changes in precipitation and evaporation

over the oceans” (WGI AR4 SPM, p. 7).

Substantial evidence presented in AR4 indicated that changing ocean

conditions have extensively influenced marine ecosystems (WGII AR4

Table 1.5). AR4 noted that there is an “accumulating body of evidence

to suggest that many marine ecosystems, including managed fisheries,

are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominately by

warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a lesser extent

by modification of precipitation regimes and wind patterns” (WGII AR4

Section 1.3.4.2, p. 94). Observed changes in marine ecosystems and

managed fisheries reported within AR4 included changes to plankton

community structure and productivity, the phenology and biogeography

of coastal species, intertidal communities on rocky shores, kelp forests,

and the distribution of pathogens and invasive species. Changes were

also observed in coral reefs (primarily increased mass coral bleaching

and mortality) and migratory patterns and trophic interactions of marine

birds, reptiles, and mammals, as well as of a range of other marine

organisms and ecosystems (WGII AR4 Table 1.5), although a separate

exercise in detection and attribution of changes due to climate change

(as done for terrestrial studies) was not done as part of AR4.

30.3. Recent Changes and Projections

of Future Ocean Conditions

Evidence that increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO

have resulted

in the warming and acidification of the upper layers of the Ocean has

strengthened since AR4. Understanding the full suite of physical and

chemical changes to the Ocean is critical to the interpretation of the past

and future responses of marine organisms and ecosystems, especially

with respect to the implications for coastal and low-lying areas.

30.3.1. Physical Changes

30.3.1.1. Heat Content and Temperature

The Ocean has absorbed 93% of the extra heat arising from the

enhanced greenhouse effect (1971–2010), with most of the warming

(64%) occurring in the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean (1971–2010; WGI

R5 Section 3.2.3, Figure 3.2, Box 3.1). It is certain that global

average SSTs have increased since the beginning of the 20th century,

with improvements and growth of data sets and archives, and the

understanding of errors and biases since AR4 (WGI AR5 Section 2.4.2).

It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0 to 700 m depth) has warmed

from 1971 to 2010 (Figure 30-2a), while it is likely that the surface layers

of the Ocean have warmed from the 1870s to 1971. Rates of increase

in temperature are highest near the surface of the Ocean (>0.1°C per

decade in the upper 75 m from 1971 to 2010) decreasing with depth

(0.015°C per decade at 700 m; Figure 30-2b,c). It is very likely that the

intensification of this warming near the surface has increased thermal

stratification of the upper ocean by about 4% between 0 and 200 m depth

from 1971 to 2010 in all parts of the ocean north of 40°S. It is likely

that the Ocean has warmed between 700 and 2000 m from 1957 to

2010, with the warming signal becoming less apparent or non-existent

at deeper depths (WGI AR5 Sections 3.2.1-3, Figures 3.1, 3.2, 3.9). These

changes include a significant anthropogenic signal (virtually certain;

Gleckler et al., 2012; Pierce et al., 2012), with the surface waters of all

three ocean basins warming at different rates that exceed those

expected if there were no changes to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing

over the past century (Figure 30-2e,f,g). In this respect, the observed

record also falls within the range of historical model outputs that include

increases in the concentration of GHGs as opposed to models that do

not (Figure 30-2e,f,g).

Data archives such as Hadley Centre Interpolated SST 1.1 (HadISST1.1)

contain SSTs reconstructed from a range of sources, allowing an

opportunity to explore mean monthly, gridded, global SST from 1870

to the present (Rayner et al., 2003). The published HadISST1.1 data

set (higher temporal and spatial resolution than HadSST3) was used to

explore trends in historic SST within the sub-regions of the Ocean

(Figure 30-1a; see definition of regions in Figure SM30-1 and

Table SM30-2, column 1). The median SST for 1871–1995 from the

Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) were merged

with data from the UK Met Office Marine Data Bank (MDB) to produce

monthly globally complete fields of SST on a 1° latitude-longitude SST

grid from 1870 to the present.

The surface layers of the three ocean basins have warmed (p-value

≤ 0.05, very likely), with the Indian Ocean (0.11°C per decade) warming

faster than the Atlantic (0.07°C per decade) and Pacific (0.05°C per

decade) Oceans (high confidence; Table 30-1). This is consistent with

the depth-averaged (0 to 700 m) temperature trend observed from 1971

to 2010 (Figure 30-2a).

While some regions (e.g., North Pacific) did not show a clear warming

trend, most regions showed either significant warming in the average

temperature, or significant warming in either/or the warmest and

coolest months of the year, over the period 1950–2009 (HadISST1.1

data; Table 30-1). Trends in SST show considerable sub-regional

variability (Table 30-1; Figure 30-2a). Notably, the average temperature

of most HLSBS did not increase significantly from 1950 to 2009

(except in the Indian Ocean; Table 30-1) yet the temperatures of the

warmest month (North and South Atlantic, and Southeastern Pacific)

and of the coolest month (North and South Atlantic, and South Pacific)

showed significant upward trends over this period (p-value ≤ 0.05;

Table 30-1).

1665

The Ocean Chapter 30

he two EUS warmed from 1950 to 2009 (Pacific EUS: 0.07°C per

decade, Atlantic EUS: 0.09°C per decade; Table 30-1). The average

monthly SST of the SES did not warm significantly, although the

temperature of the coolest month increased significantly within the

Baltic Sea (0.35°C per decade or 2.11°C from 1950 to 2009), as did the

temperatures of the warmest months in the Black (0.14°C per decade

r 0.83°C from 1950 to 2009), Mediterranean (0.11°C per decade or

0.66°C from 1950 to 2009), and Red (0.05°C per decade or 0.28°C

from 1950 to 2009) Seas over the period 1950–2009 (very likely; Table

30-1). Studies over shorter periods (e.g., 1982–2006; Belkin, 2009)

report significant increases in average SST of the Baltic (1.35°C), Black

(0.96°C), Red (0.74°C), and Mediterranean (0.71°C) Seas. Such studies

(a)

Latitude

Depth (m)

(b)

100

200

Depth (m)

(c)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

T0−T200 (°C)

(d)

(a,b) Temperature Trend (°C per decade)

300

400

500

600

700

–1

–2

–0.3 –0.25 –0.2 –0.15 –0.1 –0.05 0 –0.05 –0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3

80°N60°N40°N20°N0°S20°S40°S60°S80°S

Temperature (°C)

Sea surface temperature

Historical

Natural RCP4.5

RCP8.5

OverlapOverlap

Observed

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1960

(

e) Atlantic Ocean

(f) Indian Ocean

(g) Paciﬁc Ocean

21002050200019501900

–1

–2

–1

–2

Temperature (°C) Temperature (°C)

21002050200019501900

Figure 30-2 | (a) Depth-averaged 0 to 700 m temperature trend for 1971–2010 (longitude vs. latitude, colors and gray contours in degrees Celsius per decade). (b) Zonally

averaged temperature trends (latitude vs. depth, colors and gray contours in degrees Celsius per decade) for 1971–2010, with zonally averaged mean temperature over plotted

(black contours in degrees Celsius). (c) Globally averaged temperature anomaly (time vs. depth, colors and gray contours in degrees Celsius) relative to the 1971–2010 mean. (d)

Globally averaged temperature difference between the Ocean surface and 200 m depth (black: annual values; red: 5-year running mean). [(a–d) from WGI AR5 Figure 3.1] (e)–(g)

Observed and simulated variations in past and projected future annual average sea surface temperature over three ocean basins (excluding regions within 300 km of the coast). The

black line shows estimates from Hadley Centre Interpolated sea surface temperature 1.1 (HadISST1.1) observational measurements. Shading denotes the 5th to 95th percentile

range of climate model simulations driven with “historical” changes in anthropogenic and natural drivers (62 simulations), historical changes in “natural” drivers only (25), and the

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; blue: RCP4.5; orange: RCP8.5). Data are anomalies from the 1986–2006 average of the HadISST1.1 data (for the HadISST1.1 time

series) or of the corresponding historical all-forcing simulations. Further details are given in Panels (a)-(d) originally presented in WGI AR5 Fig 3.1 and Box 21-2.

1666

Chapter 30 The Ocean

Continued next page

Sub-region Area

Regression slope Total change over 60 years

p-value, slope different from

zero

°C per

decade

(coolest

month)

°C per

decade

(all

months)

°C per

decade

(warmest

month)

Change

over 60

years

(coolest

month)

Change

over 60

years (all

months)

Change

over 60

years

(warmest

month)

°C per

decade

(coolest

month)

°C per

decade

(all

months)

°C per

decade

(warmest

month)

1. High-Latitude

Spring Bloom

Systems (HLSBS)

Indian Ocean 0.056 0.087 0.145 0.336 0.522 0.870 0.000 0.003 0.000

orth Atlantic Ocean 0.054 0.073 0.116 0.324 0.438 0.696 0.001 0.15 0.000

South Atlantic Ocean 0.087 0.063 0.097 0.522 0.378 0.582 0.000 0.098 0.000

orth Paciﬁ c Ocean (west) 0.052 0.071 0.013 0.312 0.426 0.078 0.52 0.403 0.462

North Paciﬁ c Ocean (east) 0.016 0.04 0.016 0.096 0.24 0.096 0.643 0.53 0.444

orth Paciﬁ c Ocean 0.033 0.055 0.015 0.198 0.33 0.09 0.284 0.456 0.319

South Paciﬁ c Ocean (west) 0.043 0.017 0.044 0.258 0.102 0.264 0.016 0.652 0.147

South Paciﬁ c Ocean (east) 0.047 0.031 0.052 0.282 0.186 0.312 0.000 0.396 0.003

outh Paciﬁ c Ocean 0.046 0.027 0.050 0.276 0.162 0.300 0.000 0.467 0.000

2. Equatorial

Upwelling Systems

(EUS)

Atlantic Equatorial Upwelling 0.101 0.090 0.079 0.606 0.540 0.474 0.000 0.000 0.000

Paciﬁ c Equatorial Upwelling 0.079 0.071 0.065 0.474 0.426 0.39 0.096 0.001 0.071

3. Semi-Enclosed

Seas (SES)

Arabian Gulf 0.027 0.099 0.042 0.162 0.594 0.252 0.577 0.305 0.282

Baltic Sea 0.352 0.165 0.06 2.112 0.99 0.36 0.000 0.155 0.299

Black Sea – 0.004 0.053 0.139 – 0.024 0.318 0.834 0.943 0.683 0.009

Mediterranean Sea 0.035 0.084 0.110 0.21 0.504 0.660 0.083 0.32 0.006

Red Sea 0.033 0.07 0.047 0.198 0.42 0.282 0.203 0.138 0.042

4. Coastal

Boundary Systems

(CBS)

Atlantic Ocean (west) 0.137 0.123 0.127 0.822 0.738 0.762 0.000 0.000 0.000

Caribbean Sea/ Gulf of Mexico 0.023 0.024 0.019 0.138 0.144 0.114 0.193 0.498 0.281

Indian Ocean (west) 0.097 0.100 0.096 0.582 0.600 0.576 0.000 0.000 0.000

Indian Ocean (east) 0.099 0.092 0.080 0.594 0.552 0.480 0.000 0.000 0.000

Indian Ocean (east), Southeast

Asia , Paciﬁ c Ocean (west)

0.144 0.134 0.107 0.864 0.804 0.642 0.000 0.000 0.000

5. Eastern

Boundary

Upwelling

Ecosystems (EBUE)

Benguela Current 0.062 0.032 0.002 0.372 0.192 0.012 0.012 0.437 0.958

California Current 0.117 0.122 0.076 0.702 0.732 0.456 0.026 0.011 0.125

Canary Current 0.054 0.089 0.106 0.324 0.534 0.636 0.166 0.014 0.000

Humboldt Current 0.051 0.059 0.104 0.306 0.354 0.624 0.285 0.205 0.013

6. Subtropical

Gyres (STG)

Indian Ocean 0.141 0.112 0.103 0.846 0.672 0.618 0.000 0.000 0.000

North Atlantic Ocean 0.042 0.046 0.029 0.252 0.276 0.174 0.048 0.276 0.038

South Atlantic Ocean 0.079 0.083 0.098 0.474 0.498 0.588 0.000 0.017 0.000

North Paciﬁ c Ocean (west) 0.065 0.071 0.059 0.390 0.426 0.354 0.000 0.018 0.000

North Paciﬁ c Ocean (east) 0.008 0.042 0.051 0.048 0.252 0.306 0.617 0.133 0.014

North Paciﬁ c Ocean 0.034 0.055 0.051 0.204 0.33 0.306 0.001 0.053 0.000

South Paciﬁ c Ocean (west) 0.060 0.076 0.092 0.360 0.456 0.552 0.002 0.000 0.000

South Paciﬁ c Ocean (east) 0.055 0.056 0.088 0.330 0.336 0.528 0.000 0.058 0.000

South Paciﬁ c Ocean 0.056 0.060 0.089 0.336 0.360 0.534 0.000 0.027 0.000

Table 30-1 | Regional changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the period 1950 – 2009 using the ocean regionalization speciﬁ ed in Figure 30-1(a) (for further details on

regions deﬁ ned for analysis, see Figure SM30-1 and Table SM30-2, column 1). A linear regression was ﬁ tted to the average of all 1×1 degree monthly SST data extracted from

the Hadley Centre HadISST1.1 data set (Rayner et al., 2003) for each sub-region over the period 1950 – 2009. All SST values less than – 1.8°C, together with all SST pixels that

were ﬂ agged as being sea ice, were reset to the freezing point of seawater (– 1.8°C) to reﬂ ect the sea temperature under the ice. Separate analyses were also done to explore

trends in the temperatures extracted from the coldest-ranked and the warmest-ranked month of each year (Table SM30-2). The table includes the slope of the regression (°C per

decade), the p-value for the slope being different from zero and the total change over 60 years (i.e., the slope of linear regression multiplied by six decades) for each category.

The p-values that exceed 0.05 plus the associated slope and change values have an orange background, denoting the lower statistical conﬁ dence in the slope being different

from zero (no slope). Note that changes with higher p-values may still describe informative trends although the level of conﬁ dence that the slope is different from zero is lower.

1667

The Ocean Chapter 30

are complicated by the influence of patterns of long-term variability and

by the small size and land-locked nature of SES. Coastal Boundary Systems

(except the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico) all showed highly significant

(p-value ≤ 0.05) warming (0.09°C to 0.13°C per decade; Table 30-1).

Among the EBUE, the Canary and Californian Current regions exhibited

a significant rate of change in the average SST (0.09°C per decade and

0.12°C per decade, respectively; p-value ≤ 0.05), while the Benguela and

Humboldt Currents did not show significant temperature changes from

1950 to 2009 (p-value ≤ 0.05; Table 30-1). There was some variability

between EUBEs in terms of the behavior of the coolest and warmest

months. The temperature of the coolest month increased significantly

from 1950 to 2009 in the case of the Benguela and California Currents

(0.06°C per decade and 0.12°C per decade, respectively; p-value ≤ 0.05),

while there was a significant increase in the temperature of the warmest

month in the case of the Canary and Humboldt Currents (0.11°C per

decade and 0.10°C per decade, respectively; Table 30-1).

The average temperature of STG showed complex patterns with increasing

temperatures (1950–2009) in the Indian, South Atlantic, and South Pacific

Oceans (very likely; 0.11°C, 0.08°C, and 0.06°C per decade, respectively;

p-value ≤ 0.05), but not in the North Atlantic or North Pacific Ocean

(p-value ≤ 0.05). These rates are half the value reported over shorter

periods (e.g., 1998–2010; Table 1 in Signorini and McClain, 2012) and

based on NOAA_OI_SST_V2 data. Given the sensitivity of coral reefs

to temperature (Eakin et al., 2010; Strong et al., 2011; Lough, 2012;

Box CC-CR), trends in key coral reef regions were also examined using

the World Resources Institute’s Reefs at Risk report (www.wri.org) to

identify HadISST1.1 grid cells containing coral reefs (Figure 30-4b).

Grouping the results into six major coral reef regions, coral reef waters

(with the notable exception of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean) were

found to show strong increases in average temperature (0.07°C to

0.13°C per decade) as well as the temperature of the coolest (0.07°C

to 0.14°C decade) and warmest months (very likely) (0.07°C to 0.12°C

per decade; Table 30-1). These trends in temperature have resulted in

an absolute increase in sea temperature of 0.44°C to 0.79°C from 1950

to 2009.

Given the essential role that temperature plays in the biology and

ecology of marine organisms (Box CC-MB; Sections 6.2-3; Pörtner, 2002;

Poloczanska et al., 2013), the speed of isotherm migration ultimately

determines the speed at which populations must either move, adapt,

or acclimate to changing sea temperatures (Pörtner, 2002; Burrows et

al., 2011; Hoegh-Guldberg, 2012). Burrows et al. (2011) calculated the

rate at which isotherms are migrating as the ratio of the rate of SST

change (°C yr

–1

) to the spatial gradient of temperature (°C km

–1

) over the

period 1960–2009 (Figure 30-3). Although many of these temperature

trajectories are toward the polar regions, some are not and are influenced

by features such as coastlines. This analysis and others (e.g., North

Atlantic; González-Taboada and Anadón, 2012) reveals that isotherms

in the Ocean are moving at high velocities (to over 200 km per decade),

especially at low latitudes (high confidence; Figure 30-3). Other sub-

regions showed smaller velocities with contracting isotherms (cooling)

in some areas (e.g., the Central and North Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans;

Figure 30-3). There are also changes in the timing of seasonal temperatures

in both spring and fall/autumn (Burrows et al., 2011; Poloczanska et al.,

2013), which, together with other variables (e.g., light, food availability,

geography), are likely to affect biological processes such as the

migration of species to higher latitudes, and the timing and synchrony

of reproductive and other seasonal behaviors.

Excursions of sea temperature above long-term summer temperature

maxima (or below long-term temperature minima) significantly affect

marine organisms and ecosystems (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Bensoussan

et al., 2010; Crisci et al., 2011; Harley, 2011). Consequently, calculating

heat stress as a function of exposure time and size of a particular

temperature anomaly is useful in understanding recent changes to

Sub-region

Regression slope Total change over 60 years

p-value, slope different from

zero

°C per

decade

(coolest

month)

°C per

decade

(all

months)

°C per

decade

(warmest

month)

Change

over 60

years

(coolest

month)

Change

over 60

years (all

months)

Change

over 60

years

(warmest

month)

°C per

decade

(coolest

month)

°C per

decade

(all

months)

°C per

decade

(warmest

month)

Coral Reef

Provinces; see

Figure 30-4(b)

aribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico 0.026 0.024 0.023 0.156 0.144 0.138 0.107 0.382 0.203

Coral Triangle and Southeast Asia 0.137 0.131 0.098 0.822 0.786 0.588 0.000 0.000 0.000

ndian Ocean (east) 0.081 0.097 0.116 0.486 0.582 0.696 0.000 0.000 0.000

Indian Ocean (west) 0.091 0.100 0.102 0.546 0.600 0.612 0.000 0.000 0.000

aciﬁ c Ocean (east) 0.079 0.094 0.101 0.474 0.564 0.606 0.106 0.000 0.023

Paciﬁ c Ocean (west) 0.072 0.073 0.073 0.432 0.438 0.438 0.000 0.000 0.000

Basin Scale

North Atlantic Ocean 0.045 0.061 0.090 0.270 0.366 0.540 0.002 0.198 0.000

outh Atlantic Ocean 0.076 0.074 0.101 0.456 0.444 0.606 0.000 0.041 0.000

Atlantic Ocean 0.060 0.068 0.091 0.360 0.408 0.546 0.000 0.000 0.000

orth Paciﬁ c Ocean 0.030 0.052 0.046 0.180 0.312 0.276 0.000 0.248 0.006

outh Paciﬁ c Ocean 0.055 0.048 0.075 0.330 0.288 0.450 0.000 0.115 0.000

Paciﬁ c Ocean 0.043 0.052 0.046 0.258 0.312 0.276 0.000 0.000 0.006

Indian Ocean 0.130 0.108 0.106 0.780 0.648 0.636 0.000 0.000 0.000

Table 30-1 (continued)

1668

Chapter 30 The Ocean

organisms and ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs and thermal anomalies;

Strong et al., 2011). The total heat stress accumulated over the period

1981–2010 was calculated using the methodology of Donner et al.

(2007) and a reference climatology based on 1985–2000 in which the

highest monthly SST was used to define the thermal threshold, above

which accumulated thermal stress was calculated as “exposure time

multiplied by stress” or Degree Heating Months (DHM) as the running

total over 4 consecutive months. While most sub-regions of the Ocean

experienced an accumulation of heat stress (relative to a climatology

based on the period 1985–2000), equatorial and high-latitude sub-

regions in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans have the greatest levels of

accumulated heat stress (Figure 30-4a). These are areas rich in thermally

sensitive coral reefs (Figure 30-4b; Strong et al., 2011). There was also

a higher proportion of years that have had at least one stress event

(DHM > 1) in the last 30 years (1981–2010, Figure 30-4c) than in the

preceding 30 years (1951–1980; Figure 30-4c,d).

The three ocean basins will continue warming under moderate (RCP4.5)

to high (RCP8.5) emission trajectories (high confidence) and will only

stabilize over the second half of the century in the case of low range

scenarios such as RCP2.6 (Figure 30-2e,f,g; WGI AR5 AI.4–AI.8).

Projected changes were also examined for specific ocean sub-regions using

ensemble averages from Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models

(AOGCM) simulations available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison

Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive (Table SM30-3) for the four scenarios

of the future (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5; van Vuuren et al.,

2011). Ensemble averages for each RCP are based on simulations from

10 to 16 individual models (Table SM30-3). The subset of CMIP5 models

were chosen because each has historic runs enabling the derivation of

the maximum monthly mean (MMM) climatology from 1985 to 2000,

ensuring that all anomalies were comparable across time periods and

across RCPs (Figure 30-10). Model hind-cast changes matched those

observed for ocean sub-regions for the period 1980–2009 (HadISST1.1;

Figure 30-2), with the model ensemble slightly overestimating the extent

of change across the different ocean sub-regions (slope of observed/

model = 0.81, r

= 0.76, p-value ≤ 0.001). In this way, the absolute

amount of change projected to occur in the ocean sub-regions was

calculated for near-term (2010–2039) and long-term (2070–2099)

periods (Table SM30-4). In the near term, changes in the temperature

projected for the surface layers of the Ocean were largely indistinguishable

between the different RCP scenarios owing to the similarity in forcing

up to 2040. By the end of the century, however, SSTs across the ocean

sub-regions were 1.8°C to 3.3°C higher under RCP8.5 than those

projected to occur under RCP2.6 (Table SM30-4; Figure 30-2e,f,g). The

implications of these projected changes on the structure and function

of oceanic systems are discussed below.

30.3.1.2. Sea Level

The rate of sea level rise (SLR) since the mid-19th century has been larger

than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence).

Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level (GMSL) rose by 0.19

(0.17 to 0.21) m (WGI AR5 Figure SPM.3; WGI AR5 Sections 3.7, 5.6,

13.2). It is very likely that the mean rate of global averaged SLR was

1.7 (1.5 to 1.9) mm yr

–1

between 1901 and 2010, 2.0 (1.7 to 2.3) mm yr

–1

>200200

100

10 5–10 –20 –50 –100 –200 <–200

–5

Velocity of sea surface temperature isotherm shifts (km per decade)

Arrows indicate the direction and

magnitude of isotherm shifts

Figure 30-3 | Velocity at which sea surface temperature (SST) isotherms shifted (km per decade) over the period 1960–2009 calculated using Hadley Centre Interpolated sea

surface temperature 1.1 (HadISST1.1), with arrows indicating the direction and magnitude of shifts. Velocity of climate change is obtained by dividing the temperature trend in °C

per decade by the local spatial gradient °C km

–1

. The direction of movement of SST isotherms are denoted by the direction of the spatial gradient and the sign of the temperature

trend: toward locally cooler areas with a local warming trend or toward locally warmer areas where temperatures are cooling. Adapted from Burrows et al., 2011.

hite dots indicate zero or minimal

elocities

1669

The Ocean Chapter 30

etween 1971 and 2010, and 3.2 (2.8 to 3.6) mm yr

–1

etween 1993

and 2010 (WGI AR5 SPM, Section 3.7). These observations are consistent

with thermal expansion of the Ocean due to warming plus the addition

of water from loss of mass by melting glaciers and ice sheets. Current

rates of SLR vary geographically, and can be higher or lower than the

GMSL for several decades at time due to fluctuations in natural variability

and ocean circulation (Figure 30-5). For example, rates of SLR are up to

three times higher than the GMSL in the Western Pacific and Southeast

Asian region, and decreasing in many parts of the Eastern Pacific for

the period 1993–2012 as measured by satellite altimetry (Figure 30-5;

WGI AR5 Section 13.6.5).

SLR under increasing atmospheric GHG concentrations will continue for

hundreds of years, with the extent and rate of the increase in GMSL

being dependent on the emission scenario. Central to this analysis is

the millennial-scale commitment to further SLR that is likely to arise

from the loss of mass of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (WGI

AR5 Section 13.5.4, Figure 13.13). SLR is very likely to increase during

he 21st century relative to the period 1971–2010 due to increased

ocean warming and the continued contribution of water from loss of

mass from glaciers and ice sheets. There is medium confidence that

median SLR by 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 will be (5 to 95%

range of process-based models): 0.44 m for RCP2.6, 0.53 m for RCP4.5,

0.55 m for RCP6.0, and 0.74 m for RCP8.5. Higher values of SLR are

possible but are not backed by sufficient evidence to enable reliable

estimates of the probability of specific outcomes. Many semi-empirical

model projections of GMSL rise are higher than process-based model

projections (up to about twice as large), but there is no consensus in

the scientific community about their reliability and there is thus low

confidence in their projections (WGI AR5 Sections 13.5.2, 13.5.3, Table

13.6, Figure 13.12).

It is considered very likely that increases in sea level will result in greater

levels of coastal flooding and more frequent extremes by 2050 (WGI

AR5 Section 13.7.2; IPCC, 2012). It is about as likely as not that the

frequency of the most intense storms will increase in some ocean basins,

(a) Total thermal stress for the period 1981–2010 (b) Coral reef provinces and locations

Western Paciﬁc

Eastern Paciﬁc

Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico

Western Indian Ocean

Eastern Indian Ocean

Coral Triangle & SE Asia

0 >51 234

Average annual total of the monthly anomalies (°C)

Proportion of years with thermal stress (%)

100

25 50 75

The location of shallow-water coral reef cells

Figure 30-4 | Recent changes in thermal stress calculated using Hadley Centre Interpolated sea surface temperature data (HadISST1.1). A monthly climatology was created by

averaging the HadISST monthly SST values over a reference period of 1985–2000 to create 12 averages, one for each month of the year. The Maximum Monthly Mean climatology

was created by selecting the hottest month for each pixel. Anomalies were then created by subtracting this value from each sea surface temperature value, but allowing values to be

recorded only if they were greater than zero (Donner et al., 2007). Two measures of the change in thermal stress were calculated as a result: The total thermal stress for the period

1981–2010, calculated by summing all monthly thermal anomalies for each grid cell (a); and the proportion of years with thermal stress, which is deﬁned as any year that has a

thermal anomaly, for the periods 1951–1980 (c) and 1981–2010 (d). The location of coral reef grid cells used in Table 30-1 and for comparison to regional heat stress is depicted in

(b). Each dot is positioned over a 1 × 1 degree grid cell within which lies at least one carbonate coral reef. The latitude and longitude of each reef is derived from data provided by

the World Resources Institute’s Reefs at Risk report (http://www.wri.org). The six regions are as follows: red—Western Paciﬁc Ocean; yellow—Eastern Paciﬁc Ocean; dark

blue—Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico; green—Western Indian Ocean; purple—Eastern Indian Ocean; and light blue—Coral Triangle and Southeast Asia.

1670

Chapter 30 The Ocean

lthough there is medium agreement that the global frequency of

tropical cyclones is likely to decrease or remain constant (WGI AR5

Sections 14.6, 14.8). Although understanding of associated risks is

relatively undeveloped, coastal and low-lying areas, particularly in

southern Asia, as well as the Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic regions,

face increased flood risk (Sections 5.3.3.2, 8.2.3.3, 9.3.4.3). Future

impacts of SLR include increasing penetration of storm surges into

coastal areas and changing patterns of shoreline erosion (Section 5.3),

s well as the inundation of coastal aquifers by saltwater (Sections

5.4.2.5, 29.3.2). Regionally, some natural ecosystems may reduce in

extent (e.g., mangroves), although examples of habitat expansion have

been reported (Brown et al., 2011). Overall, changes to sea level are

very likely to modify coastal ecosystems such as beaches, salt marshes,

coral reefs, and mangroves (Section 5.4.2; Box CC-CR), especially where

rates of sea level rise are highest (e.g., Southeast Asia and the Western

Pacific).

−500

−250

250

500

Sea Level (mm)

1980

−500

−250

250

500

Sea Level (mm)

1960 2000 19801960 2000 19801960 2000

19801960 2000 19801960 2000 19801960 2000

−14 −12 −10

−8 −6

−4

−2

6810 12 14

Sea level change (mm yr

-1

)

San Francisco Charlottetown Stockholm

Antofagasta Manila Pago Pago

Gray lines = relative sea level changes

Red lines = global mean sea level change

Graphs Map

Figure 30-5 | Map of the rate of change in sea surface height (geocentric sea level) for the period 1993–2012 derived from satellite altimetry. Also shown are relative sea level

changes (gray lines) from selected tide gauge stations for the period 1950–2012. For comparison, an estimate of global mean sea level change is shown (red lines) with each tide

gauge time series. The relatively large short-term oscillations in local sea level (gray lines) are due to the natural climate variability and ocean circulation. For example, the large

regular deviations at Pago Pago are associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Figure originally presented in WGI AR5 FAQ 13.1, Figure 1.

1671

The Ocean Chapter 30

30.3.1.3. Ocean Circulation, Surface Wind, and Waves

Circulation of atmosphere and ocean (and their interactions) drives much

of the chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of the Ocean,

shaping phenomena such as ocean ventilation, coastal upwelling, primary

production, and biogeochemical cycling. Critical factors for transporting

nutrients from deep waters to the marine primary producers in the

upper layers of the ocean include wind-driven mixing and upwelling.

There has been a poleward movement of circulation features, including

a widening of the tropical belt, contraction of the northern polar vortex,

and a shift of storm tracks and jet streams to higher latitudes (medium

confidence; WGI AR5 Sections 2.7.5-6, 2.7.8; WGI AR5 Box 2.5). Long-

term patterns of variability (years to decades) continue to prevent robust

conclusions regarding long-term changes in atmospheric circulation and

winds in many cases (WGI AR5 Section 2.7.5). There is high confidence,

however, that the increase in northern mid-latitude westerly winds from

the 1950s to the 1990s, and the weakening of the Pacific Walker

Circulation from the late 19th century to the 1990s, have been largely

offset by recent changes (WGI AR5 Sections 2.7.5, 2.7.8; WGI AR5

Box 2.5). Wind stress has increased since the early 1980s over the

Southern Ocean (medium confidence; WGI AR5 Section 3.4.4), and

tropical Pacific since 1990 (medium confidence), while zonal mean wind

stress may have declined by 7% in the equatorial Pacific from 1862–

1990 due to weakening of the tropical Walker Circulation (medium

confidence; WGI AR5 Section 3.4.4; Vecchi et al., 2006). For example, it

is very likely that the subtropical gyres of the major ocean basins have

expanded and strengthened since 1993. However, the short-term nature

of observing means that these changes are as likely as not to be due to

decadal variability and/or due to longer term trends in wind forcing

associated with climate change (WGI AR5 Section 3.6). Other evidence

of changes in ocean circulation is limited to relatively short-term records

that suffer from low temporal and spatial coverage. Therefore, there is

very low confidence that multi-decadal trends in ocean circulation can

be separated from decadal variability (WGI AR5 Section 3.6.6). There is

no evidence of a long-term trend in large-scale currents such as the

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Indonesian

Throughflow (ITF), the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), or the

transport of water between the Atlantic Ocean and Nordic Seas (WGI

AR5 Section 3.6; WGI AR5 Figures 3.10, 3.11).

Wind speeds may have increased within the regions of EBUE (low

confidence in attribution to climate; e.g., California Current, WGI AR5

Section 2.7.2). Changing wind regimes have the potential to influence

mixed layer depth (MLD) and upwelling intensity in highly productive

sub-regions of the world’s oceans, although there is low agreement as

to whether or not upwelling will intensify or not under rapid climate

change (Bakun, 1990; Bakun et al., 2010; Box CC-UP).

Surface waves are influenced by wind stress, although understanding

trends remains a challenge due to limited data. There is medium confidence

that significant wave height (SWH) has increased since the mid-1950s

over much of the North Atlantic north of 45°N, with typical winter

season trends of up to 20 cm per decade (WGI AR5 Section 3.4.5). There

is low confidence in the current understanding of how SWH will change

over the coming decades and century for most of the Ocean. It remains

an important knowledge gap (WGI AR5 Section 3.4).

30.3.1.4. Solar Insolation and Clouds

Solar insolation plays a crucially important role in the biology of many

marine organisms, not only as a source of energy for photosynthesis

but also as a potential co-stressor in the photic zone (with temperature),

as is seen during mass coral bleaching and mortality events (e.g.,

Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999). Global surface solar insolation (from the

National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for

Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) Reanalysis Project; Kalnay et al.,

1996) decreased by 4.3 W m

–2

per decade from the 1950s until 1991,

after which it increased at 3.3 W m

–2

per decade until 1999 (Ohmura,

2009; Wild, 2009), matching a broad suite of evidence from many land-

based sites (WGI AR5 Section 2.3.3). Although there is consistency

between independent data sets for particular regions, there is substantial

ambiguity and therefore low confidence in observations of global-scale

cloud variability and trends (WGI AR5 Section 2.5.6). There is also low

confidence in projections of how cloudiness, solar insolation, and

precipitation will change as the planet warms due to the large interannual

and decadal variability (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific

Decadal Oscillation (PDO)), short observation time series, and uneven

spatial sampling, particularly in the early record (before 1950; WGI AR5

Section 2.5.8).

30.3.1.5. Storm Systems

As agents of water column mixing, storms (from small atmospheric

disturbances to intense tropical cyclones) can remix nutrients from

deeper areas into the photic zone of the Ocean, stimulating productivity.

Storms can also reduce local sea temperatures and associated stress

by remixing heat into the deeper layers of the Ocean (Carrigan and

Puotinen, 2011). Large storms can destroy coastal infrastructure and

coastal habitats such as coral reefs and mangrove forests, which can

take decades to recover (Lotze et al., 2011; De’ath et al., 2012).

Although there is low confidence for long-term trends in tropical cyclone

activity globally (largely due to the lack of reliable long-term data sets),

it is virtually certain that the frequency and intensity of the strongest

tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic have increased since the 1970s

(WGI AR5 Section 2.6.3). There is medium agreement that the frequency

of the most intense cyclones in the Atlantic has increased since 1987

(WGI AR5 Section 2.6.3) and robust evidence of inter-decadal changes in

the storm track activity within the North Pacific and North Atlantic (Lee

et al., 2012). It is also likely that there has been a decrease in the number

of land-falling tropical cyclones along the East Australian coast since

the 19th century (WGI AR5 Section 2.6.3; Callaghan and Power, 2011).

It is likely that these patterns are influenced by interannual variability

such as ENSO, with land-falling tropical cyclones being twice as common

in La Niña versus El Niño years (high confidence; Callaghan and Power,

2011). There has been an increase in the number of intense wintertime

extratropical cyclone systems since the 1950s in the North Pacific.

Similar trends have been reported for the Asian region, although analyses

are limited in terms of the spatial and temporal coverage of reliable

records (WGI AR5 Section 2.6.4). There is low confidence, however, in

large-scale trends in storminess or storminess proxies over the last century

owing to the lack of long-term data and inconsistencies between studies

(WGI AR5 Section 2.6.4).

1672

Chapter 30 The Ocean

30.3.1.6. Thermal Stratification

As heat has accumulated in the Ocean there has been a 4% increase in

thermal stratification of the upper layers in most ocean regions (0 to

200 m, 40-year record) north of 40°S (WGI AR5 Section 3.2.2). Increasing

thermal stratification has reduced ocean ventilation and the depth of

mixing in many ocean sub-regions (medium confidence; WGI AR5 Section

3.8.3). This in turn reduces the availability of inorganic nutrients and

consequently primary productivity (medium confidence; Section 6.3.4).

In the STG, which dominate the three major ocean basins (Section

30.5.6), satellite-derived estimates of surface chlorophyll and primary

production decreased between 1999 and 2007 (Box CC-PP). In contrast,

owever, in situ observations at fixed stations in the North Pacific and

North Atlantic Oceans (Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) and Bermuda

Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS)) showed increases in nutrient and

chlorophyll levels and primary production over the same period, suggesting

that other processes (e.g., ENSO, PDO, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),

winds, eddies, advection) can counteract broad-scale trends at local

scales (Box CC-PP). The continued warming of the surface layers of the

Ocean will very likely further enhance stratification and potentially limit

the nutrient supply to the euphotic zone in some areas. The response

of upwelling to global warming is likely to vary between regions and

represents a complex interplay between local and global variables and

processes (Box CC-UW).

(a) Climatological-mean sea surface salinity (1955–2005)

(b) Annual mean evaporation–precipitation (1950–2000)

(d) The 30-year (2003–2007 average centered at 2005, minus the

1960–1989 average centered at 1975) sea surface salinity difference

white areas = areas where calculations were not carried out

gray stippling = change is not signiﬁcant at the 99% conﬁdence level

white areas = areas where calculations were not carried out

gray stippling = change is not signiﬁcant at the 99% conﬁdence level

∆ Practical Salinity Scale of 1978 ∆ Practical Salinity Scale of 1978

Practical Salinity Scale of 1978 Evaporation–precipitation average (m/yr

)

32 33 34 35 36 37 38 –3 –2 –1 1 2 30

–0.25 –0.5 –0.15 –0.1 –0.05 0 0.250.20.150.10.05

–0.5 –0.4 –0.3 –2 –0.1 0 0.50.40.30.20.1

Figure 30-6 | (a) The 1955–2005 climatological-mean sea surface salinity (Antonov et al., 2010) color contoured at 0.5 Practical Salinity Scale 1978 (PSS78) intervals (black

lines). (b) Annual mean evaporation-precipitation averaged over the period 1950–2000 (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) color contoured at 0.5 m yr–1

intervals (black lines). (c) The 58-year (2008 minus 1950) sea surface salinity change derived from the linear trend (PSS78), with seasonal and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

(ENSO) signals removed (Durack and Wijffels, 2010) color contoured at 0.116 PSS78 intervals (black lines). (d) The 30-year (2003–2007 average centered at 2005, minus the

1960–1989 average centered at 1975) sea surface salinity difference (PSS78) (Hosoda et al., 2009) color contoured at 0.06 PSS78 intervals (black lines). Contour intervals in (c)

and (d) are chosen so that the trends can be easily compared, given the different time intervals in the two analyzes. White areas in (c) and (d) are marginal seas where the

calculations are not carried out. Regions where the change is not signiﬁcant at the 99% conﬁdence level are stippled in gray. Figure originally presented as WGI AR5 Figure 3.4.

All salinity values quoted in the chapter are expressed on the Practical Salinity Scale 1978 (PSS78) (Lewis and Fofonoff, 1979).

1673

The Ocean Chapter 30

30.3.2. Chemical Changes

30.3.2.1. Surface Salinity

The global water cycle is dominated by evaporation and precipitation

occurring over ocean regions, with surface ocean salinity varying with

temperature, solar radiation, cloud cover, and ocean circulation (Deser

et al., 2004). Changes in salinity influence stratification of water masses

and circulation. Ocean salinity varies regionally (Figure 30-6a) and is a

function of the balance between evaporation and precipitation (Durack

and Wijffels, 2010; WGI AR5 Section 3.3). Evaporation-dominated

regions (Figure 30-6b) such as the STG and Atlantic and Western Indian

Oceans (WGI AR5 Section 3.3.3) have elevated salinity, while areas of

high precipitation such as the North Pacific, northeastern Indian Ocean,

Southeast Asia, and the eastern Pacific have relatively low salinities

(WGI AR5 Section 3.3.3; Figure 30-6a). It is likely that large-scale trends

in salinity have also occurred in the Ocean interior, deriving from

changes to salinity at the surface and subsequent subduction (WGI AR5

Section 3.3).

Salinity trends are consistent with the amplification of the global

hydrological cycle (Durack et al., 2012; Pierce et al., 2012), a consequence

of a warmer atmosphere very likely producing the observed trend in

greater precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric moisture (Figure 30-6b),

and extreme events (WGI AR5 Sections 2.6.2.1, 3.3.4; IPCC, 2012).

Spatial patterns in salinity and evaporation-precipitation are correlated,

providing indirect evidence that these processes have been enhanced

since the 1950s (WGI AR5 Sections 3.3.2-4; WGI AR5 Figures 3.4, 3.5,

3.20d; WGI AR5 FAQ 3.3). These trends in salinity are very likely to have

a discernible contribution from anthropogenic climate change (WGI

AR5 Section 10.4.2). The combined changes in surface salinity and

temperature are consistent with changes expected due to anthropogenic

forcing of the climate system and are inconsistent with the effects of

natural climate variability, either internal to the climate system (e.g.,

ENSO, PDO; Figure 30-6c,d) or external to it (e.g., solar forcing or

volcanic eruptions; Pierce et al., 2012). There is high confidence between

climate models that the observed trends in ocean salinity will continue

as average global temperature increases (Durack and Wijffels, 2010;

Terray et al., 2012). Ramifications of these changes are largely unknown

but are of interest given the role of ocean salinity and temperature in

fundamental processes such as the AMOC.

30.3.2.2. Ocean Acidification

The Ocean has absorbed approximately 30% of atmospheric CO

from

human activities, resulting in decreased ocean pH and carbonate ion

concentrations, and increased bicarbonate ion concentrations (Box

CC-OA; WGI AR5 Box 3.2; WGI AR5 Figure SM30-2). The chemical response

to increased CO

dissolving into the Ocean from the atmosphere is

known with very high confidence (WGI AR5 Section 6.4.4). Factors such

as temperature, biological processes, and sea ice (WGI AR5 Section 6.4)

play significant roles in determining the saturation state of seawater

for polymorphs (i.e., different crystalline forms) of calcium carbonate.

Consequently, pH and the solubility of aragonite and calcite are naturally

lower at high latitudes and in upwelling areas (e.g., California Current

EBUE), where organisms and ecosystems may be relatively more exposed

o ocean acidification as a result (Feely et al., 2012; Gruber et al., 2012;

Figures 30-7a,b, SM30-2). Aragonite and calcite concentrations vary

with depth, with under-saturation occurring at deeper depths in the

Atlantic (calcite: 3500 to 4500 m, aragonite: 400 to 3000 m) as opposed

to the Pacific and Indian Oceans (calcite: 100 to 3000 m, aragonite: 100

to 1200 m; Feely et al., 2004, 2009; Orr et al., 2005; Figure 30-8).

Surface ocean pH has decreased by approximately 0.1 pH units since the

beginning of the Industrial Revolution (high confidence) (Figure 30-7a;

WGI AR5 Section 3.8.2; WGI AR5 Box 3.2), with pH decreasing at the

rate of –0.0013 and 0.0024 pH units yr

–1

(WGI AR5 Section 3.8.2; WGI

AR5 Table 3.2). The presence of anthropogenic CO

diminishes with

Arctic (>70°N)

Southern Ocean (<60°S)

Tropics (20°S–20°N)

RCP8.5

RCP2.6

(a) Surface pH

Surface pH

(b) Change in surface pH in 2090s from 1990s (RCP8.5)

1900 1950

2000

2050 2100

–0.2 –0.3 –0.4

Δ Surface pH

–0.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

Figure 30-7 | Projected ocean acidiﬁcation from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison

Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System models under RCP8.5 (other Representative

Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios have also been run with the CMIP5 Models):

(a) Time series of surface pH shown as the mean (solid line) and range of models

(shaded area), given as area-weighted averages over the Arctic Ocean (green), the

tropical oceans (red), and the Southern Ocean (blue). (b) Maps of the median model’s

change in surface pH from 1990s. Panel (a) also includes mean model results from

RCP2.6 (dashed lines). Over most of the Ocean, gridded data products of carbonate

system variables are used to correct each model for its present-day bias by subtracting

the model-data difference at each grid cell following (Orr et al., 2005). Where gridded

data products are unavailable (Arctic Ocean, all marginal seas and the Ocean near

Indonesia), the results are shown without bias correction. The bias correction reduces

the range of model projections by up to a factor of four; for example, in panel (a)

compare the large range of model projections for the Arctic (without bias correction) to

the smaller range in the Southern Ocean (with bias correction). Figure originally

presented in WGI AR5 Figure 6.28.

1674

Chapter 30 The Ocean

epth. The saturation horizons of both polymorphs of calcium carbonate,

however, are shoaling rapidly (1 to 2 m yr

–

, and up to 5 m yr

–

in regions

such as the California Current (Orr et al., 2005; Feely et al., 2012). Further

increases in atmospheric CO

are virtually certain to further acidify the

Ocean and change its carbonate chemistry (Figures SM30-2, 30-7, 30-8).

Doubling atmospheric CO

(~RCP4.5; Rogelj et al., 2012) will decrease

cean pH by another 0.1 unit and decrease carbonate ion concentrations

by approximately 100 µmol kg

–

in tropical oceans (Figure 30-8a) from

the present-day average of 250 µmol kg

–

(high confidence). Projected

changes for the open Ocean by 2100 (Figures 30-7, 30-8) range from a

pH change of –0.14 unit with RCP2.6 (421 ppm CO

, +1ºC, 22% reduction

of carbonate ion concentration) to a pH change of –0.43 unit with RCP8.5

0.5 1.0 2.0 3.02.51.2 1.50.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Calcite saturation

Aragonite saturation

0° 30°N 60°N 90°N90°S 60°S 30°S

Range

of model

ean

1900 1950

2000

2050

2100

Depth (m)Depth (m)

100

200

3000

RCP8.5

(f) Surface Ω

Aragonite

(d) Surface Ω

Aragonite

(b) Surface Ω

ragonite

RCP8.5

RCP2.6

Aragonite

Saturation Horizon

(ASH) for 2100

ASH for

2010

1000

2000

1000

2000

3000

(a) Surface CO

2–

(µmol kg

–1

)

(a)

(b)−(f)

Paciﬁc Atlantic

(e) Ω

Aragonite

2–

µmol kg

–1

Aragonite

rctic (>70°N)

outhern Ocean (<60°S)

Tropics (20°S–20°N)

No data

RCP8.5 2100

RCP8.5 2050

RCP8.5 2010

Figure 30-8 | Projected aragonite saturation state (Ω

Aragonite

) from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models under Representative

Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. (a) Time series of surface carbonate ion (CO

2–

)

concentration shown as the mean (solid line) and range of models (shaded area),

given as area-weighted averages over the Arctic Ocean (green), the tropical oceans (red), and the Southern Ocean (blue); maps of the median model’s surface Ω

Aragonite

in (b)

2010, (d) 2050, and (f) 2100; and zonal mean sections (latitude vs. depth) of Ω

Aragonite

in 2100 over (c) the Atlantic Ocean and (e) the Paciﬁc Ocean, while the ASH (Aragonite

Saturation Horizon) is shown for 2010 (dotted line) and 2100 (solid line). Panel (a) also includes mean model results from RCP2.6 (dashed lines). As for Figure 30-7, gridded data

products of carbonate system variables (Key et al., 2004) are used to correct each model for its present-day bias by subtracting the model-data difference at each grid cell

following Orr et al. (2005). Where gridded data products are unavailable (Arctic Ocean, all marginal seas, and the Ocean near Indonesia), results are shown without bias

correction. Figure originally presented in WGI AR5 Figure 6.29.

1675

The Ocean Chapter 30

(

936 ppm CO

+3.7ºC, 56% reduction of carbonate ion concentration).

The saturation horizons will also become significantly shallower in all

oceans (with the aragonite saturation horizon between 0 and 1500 m

in the Atlantic Ocean and 0 and 600 m (poles vs. equator) in the Pacific

Ocean; Sabine et al., 2004; Orr et al., 2005; WGI AR5 Section 6.4.4; WGI

AR5 Figure 6.28). Trends toward under-saturation of aragonite and

calcite will also partly depend on ocean temperature, with surface polar

waters expected to become seasonally under-saturated with respect to

aragonite and calcite within a couple of decades (Figure 30-8c,d,e,f;

Box CC-OA; McNeil and Matear, 2008).

Overall, observations from a wide range of laboratory, mesocosm, and

field studies reveal that marine macro-organisms and ocean processes

are sensitive to the levels of ocean acidification projected under elevated

atmospheric CO

(high confidence; Box CC-OA, Section 6.3.2; Munday

et al., 2009; Kroeker et al., 2013). Ecosystems that are characterized by

high rates of calcium carbonate deposition (e.g., coral reefs, calcareous

plankton communities) are sensitive to decreases in the saturation states

of aragonite and calcite (high confidence). These changes are very likely

to have broad consequences such as the loss of three-dimensional coral

reef frameworks (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; Manzello et al., 2008;

Fabricius et al., 2011; Andersson and Gledhill, 2013; Dove et al., 2013)

and restructuring of food webs at relatively small (~50 ppm) additional

increases in atmospheric CO

. Projected shoaling of the aragonite and

calcite saturation horizons are likely to impact deep water (100 to

2000 m) communities of scleractinian corals and other benthic organisms

as atmospheric CO

increases (Orr et al., 2005; Guinotte et al., 2006;

WGI AR5 Section 6.4.4), although studies from the Mediterranean

and seamounts off southwest Australia report that some deep water

corals may be less sensitive (Thresher et al., 2011; Maier et al., 2013).

Organisms are also sensitive to changes in pH with respect to

physiological processes such as respiration and neural function

(Section 6.3.2). Owing to the relatively short history, yet growing effort,

to understand the implications of rapid changes in pH and ocean

carbonate chemistry, there are a growing number of organisms and

processes reported to be sensitive. The impact of ocean acidification on

marine organisms and ecosystems continues to raise serious scientific

concern, especially given that the current rate of ocean acidification (at

east 10 to 100 times faster than the recent glacial transitions (Caldeira

and Wickett, 2003; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007)) is unprecedented

within the last 65 Ma (high confidence; Ridgwell and Schmidt, 2010)

and possibly 300 Ma of Earth history (medium confidence; Hönisch et

al., 2012; Section 6.1.2).

0.3.2.3. Oxygen Concentration

Dissolved O

is a major determinant of the distribution and abundance

of marine organisms (Section 6.3.3). Oxygen concentrations vary across

ocean basins and are lower in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins,

and northern Indian Ocean (Figure 30-9b; Section 6.1.1.3). In contrast,

some of the highest concentrations of O

are associated with cooler high-

latitude waters (Figure 30-9b). There is high agreement among analyses

providing medium confidence that O

concentrations have decreased

in the upper layers of the Ocean since the 1960s, particularly in the

equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (WGI AR5 Section 3.8.3; WGI AR5

Figure 3.20). A formal fingerprint analysis undertaken by Andrews et al.

(2013) concluded that recent decreases in oceanic O

are due to external

influences (very likely). Conversely, O

has increased in the North and

South Pacific, North Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, and is consistent with

greater mixing and ventilation due to strengthening wind systems (WGI

AR5 Section 3.8.3). The reduction in O

concentration in some areas of the

Ocean is consistent with that expected from higher ocean temperatures

and a reduction in mixing (increasing stratification) (WGI AR5 Section

3.8.3). Analysis of ocean O

trends over time (Helm et al., 2011b) reveals

that the decline in O

solubility with increased temperature is responsible

for no more than 15% of the observed change. The remaining 85%,

consequently, is associated with increased deep-sea microbial respiration

and reduced O

supply due to increased ocean stratification (WGI AR5

Section 6.1.1.3). In coastal areas, eutrophication can lead to increased

transport of organic carbon into adjacent ocean habitats where microbial

metabolism is stimulated, resulting in a rapid drawdown of O

(Weeks

et al., 2002; Rabalais et al., 2009; Bakun et al., 2010).

The development of hypoxic conditions (defined as O

concentrations

below ~60 µmol kg

–1

) over recent decades has been documented across

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 30.1 | Can we reverse the impacts of climate change on the ocean?

In less than 150 years, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have resulted in such major physical and chemical changes

in our oceans that it will take thousands of years to reverse them. There are a number of reasons for this. Given

its large mass and high heat capacity, the ability of the Ocean to absorb heat is 1000 times larger than that of the

atmosphere. The Ocean has absorbed at least nine-tenths of the Earth’s heat gain between 1971 and 2010. To reverse

that heating, the warmer upper layers of the Ocean have to mix with the colder deeper layers. That mixing can take

as much as 1000 years. This means it will take centuries to millennia for deep ocean temperatures to warm in response

to today’s surface conditions, and at least as long for ocean warming to reverse after atmospheric GHG concentrations

decrease (virtually certain). But climate change-caused alteration of basic conditions in the Ocean is not just about

temperature. The Ocean becomes more acidic as more carbon dioxide (CO

) enters it and will take tens of thousands

of years to reverse these profound changes to the carbonate chemistry of the ocean (virtually certain). These enormous

physical and chemical changes are producing sweeping and profound changes in marine ecosystems. Large and

abrupt changes to these ecosystems are unlikely to be reversible in the short to medium term (high conﬁdence).

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Chapter 30 The Ocean

a wide array of ocean sub-regions including some SES (e.g., Black and

Baltic Seas), the Arabian Sea, and the California, Humboldt, and

Benguela Current systems, where eruptions of hypoxic, sulfide-laden

water have also occurred in some cases (Weeks et al., 2002). Localized,

seasonal hypoxic “dead zones” have emerged in economically valuable

coastal areas such as the Gulf of Mexico (Turner et al., 2008; Rabalais

et al., 2010), the Baltic Sea (Conley et al., 2009), and the Black Sea

(Kideys, 2002; Ukrainskii and Popov, 2009) in connection with nutrient

fluxes from land. Over a vast region of the eastern Pacific stretching from

southern Chile to the Aleutian Islands, the minimum O

threshold (less

than 2 mg l

–1

or ~60 µmol

–1

) is found at 300 m depth and upwelling of

increasingly hypoxic waters is well documented (Karstensen et al., 2008).

Hypoxic waters in the northern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are located

close to continental shelf areas. Long-term measurements reveal that

concentrations are declining in these waters, with medium evidence

that economically significant mesopelagic fish populations are being

threatened by a reduction in suitable habitat as respiratory stress

increases (Koslow et al., 2011). It should be noted that hypoxia profiles

based on a critical threshold of 60 µmol kg

–1

can convey an overly

simplistic message given that critical concentrations of O

in this regard

are very much species, size, temperature, and life history stage specific.

This variability in sensitivity is, however, a critical determinant for any

attempt to understand how ecosystems will respond to changing future

levels (Section 6.3.3).

There is high agreement among modeling studies that O

concentrations

will continue to decrease in most parts of the Ocean due to the effect

of temperature on O

solubility, microbial respiration rates, ocean

(a) Ocean oxygen content change (%)

(b) Oxygen concentrations in the 1990s (200–600 m)

28024080400200160120 320

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

–4

–3

–2

–1

(mmol m

–3

)

4030–10–20–30 20100 50

–40

–50

(d) 2090s, changes from 1990s (RCP8.5)

(mmol m

–3

)

RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5Historical

Ocean oxygen content change (%)

Figure 30-9 | (a) Simulated changes in dissolved O

(mean and model range as shading) relative to 1990s for Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5,

RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. (b) Multi-model mean dissolved O

(mmol m

–3

) in the main thermocline (200 to 600 m depth average) for the 1990s, and changes in the 2090s relative to

1990s for RCP2.6 (c) and RCP8.5 (d). To indicate consistency in the sign of change, regions are stippled when at least 80% of models agree on the sign of the mean change.

These diagnostics are detailed in Cocco et al. (2013) in a previous model intercomparison using the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)-A2 scenario and have been

applied to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models here. Models used: Community Earth System Model 1–Biogeochemical (CESM1-BGC), Geophysical

Fluid Dynamics Laboratory–Earth System Model 2G (GFDL-ESM2G), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory–Earth System Model 2M (GFDL-ESM2M), Hadley Centre Global

Environmental Model 2–Earth System (HadGEM2-ES), Institute Pierre Simon Laplace–Coupled Model 5A–Low Resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR), Institute Pierre Simon

Laplace–Coupled Model 5A–Medium Resolution (IPSL-CM5A-MR), Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), Max Planck Institute–Earth System

Model–Medium Resolution (MPI-ESM-MR), Norwegian Earth System Model 1 (Emissions capable) (NorESM1). Figure originally presented in WGI AR5 Figure 6.30.

1677

The Ocean Chapter 30

entilation, and ocean stratification (Figure 30-9c,d; WGI AR5 Table

6.14; Andrews et al., 2013), with implications for nutrient and carbon

cycling, ocean productivity, marine habitats, and ecosystem structure

(Section 6.3.5). The outcomes of these global changes are very likely to

be influenced by regional differences in variables such as wind stress,

coastal processes, and the supply of organic matter.

30.4. Global Patterns in the Response

of Marine Organisms to Climate Change

and Ocean Acidification

Given the close relationship between organisms and ecosystems with

the physical and chemical elements of the environment, changes are

expected in the distribution and abundance of marine organisms in

response to ocean warming and acidification (Section 6.3; Boxes CC-MB,

CC-OA). Our understanding of the relationship between ocean warming

and acidification reveals that relatively small changes in temperature

and other variables can result in often large biological responses that

range from simple linear trends to more complex non-linear outcomes.

There has been an increase in studies that focus on the influence and

consequences of climate change for marine ecosystems since AR4

(Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Poloczanska et al., 2013), representing

an opportunity to examine, and potentially attribute, detected changes

within the Ocean to climate change.

Evidence of global and regional responses of marine organisms to

recent climate change has been shown through assessments of multiple

studies focused on single species, populations, and ecosystems (Tasker,

2008; Thackeray et al., 2010; Przeslawski et al., 2012; Poloczanska et

al., 2013). The most comprehensive assessment, in terms of geographic

spread and number of observed responses, is that of Poloczanska et al.

(2013). This study reveals a coherent pattern in observed responses of

ocean life to recent climate change across regions and taxonomic

groups, with 81% of responses by organisms and ecosystems being

consistent with expected changes to recent climate change (high

confidence; Box CC-MB). On average, spring events in the Ocean have

advanced by 4.4 ± 0.7 days per decade (mean ± SE) and the leading

edges of species’ distributions have extended (generally poleward) by

2.0 ± 0.35 km per decade. Values were calculated from data series

ranging from the 1920s to 2010, although all series included data after

1990. The fastest range shifts generally occurred in regions of high

thermal velocity (the speed and direction at which isotherms move

(Burrows et al., 2011; Section 30.3.1.1)). Subsequently, Pinsky et al. (2013),

using a database of 360 fish and invertebrate species and species

groups from coastal waters around North America, showed differences

in the speed and directions that species shift can be explained by

differences in local climate velocities (Box CC-MB).

30.5. Regional Impacts, Risks, and

Vulnerabilities: Present and Future

This section explores the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities of climate

change for the seven sub-regions within the Ocean. There is considerable

variability from region to region, especially in the extent and interaction

of climate change and non-climate change stressors. Although the latter

may complicate attribution attempts in many sub-regions, interactions

between the two groups of stressors may also represent opportunities

to reduce the overall effects on marine organisms and processes of the

environmental changes being driven by climate change (including ocean

acidification) (Crain et al., 2008; Griffith et al., 2012).

30.5.1. High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems

High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems (HLSBSs) stretch from 35°N to the

edge of the winter sea ice (and from 35°S to the polar front) and provide

36% of world’s fish catch (Figure 30-1b). Although much of the North

Pacific is iron limited (Martin and Fitzwater, 1988) and lacks a classical

spring bloom (McAllister et al., 1960), strong seasonal variability of

primary productivity is pronounced at all high latitudes because of

seasonally varying photoperiod and water column stability (Racault et

al., 2012). Efficient transfer of marine primary and secondary production

to higher trophic levels, including commercial fish species, is influenced

by the magnitude as well as the spatial and temporal synchrony

between successive trophic production peaks (Hjort, 1914; Cushing,

1990; Beaugrand et al., 2003; Beaugrand and Reid, 2003).

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 30.2 | Does slower warming in the Ocean mean less impact on plants and animals?

The greater thermal inertia of the Ocean means that temperature anomalies and extremes are lower than those

seen on land. This does not necessarily mean that impacts of ocean warming are less for the ocean than for land.

A large body of evidence reveals that small amounts of warming in the Ocean can have large effects on ocean

ecosystems. For example, relatively small increases in sea temperature (as little as 1°C to 2°C) can cause mass coral

bleaching and mortality across hundreds of square kilometers of coral reef (high conﬁdence). Other analyses have

revealed that increased temperatures are spreading rapidly across the world’s oceans (measured as the movement

of bands of equal water temperature or isotherms). This rate of warming presents challenges to organisms and

ecosystems as they try to migrate to cooler regions as the Ocean continues to warm. Rapid environmental change

also poses steep challenges to evolutionary processes, especially where relatively long-lived organisms such as corals

and ﬁsh are concerned (high conﬁdence).

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Chapter 30 The Ocean

30.5.1.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts

30.5.1.1.1. North Atlantic

The average temperature of the surface waters of the North Atlantic

HLSBS has warmed by 0.07°C per decade, resulting in an increase in

sea temperature of 0.44°C between 1950 and 2009 (likely) (p-value =

0.15; Table 30-1). Over the same period, both winter and summer

temperatures have increased significantly (0.05°C per decade and 0.12°C

per decade respectively, p-value ≤ 0.05). Since the 1970s, the Atlantic

Ocean has warmed more than any other ocean basin (0.3°C per decade;

Figure 30-2a; WGI AR5 Section 3.2.2), with greatest warming rates over

European continental shelf areas such as the southern North Sea, the

Gulf Stream front, the sub-polar gyres, and the Labrador Sea (MacKenzie

and Schiedek, 2007a,b; Levitus et al., 2009; Lee et al., 2011; González-

Taboada and Anadón, 2012). Basin-wide warming in the North Atlantic

since the mid-1990s has been driven by global warming and the current

warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) (Wang and

Dong, 2010; WGI AR5 Section 14.7.6).

The North Atlantic is one of the most intensively fished ocean sub-

regions. The major areas for harvesting marine living resources span the

eastern North American, European, and Icelandic shelves (Livingston and

Tjelmeland, 2000). In addition, the deep regions of the Nordic Seas and

the Irminger Sea contain large populations of pelagic fish such as herring,

blue whiting, and mackerel and mesopelagic fish such as pearlsides and

redfish. The region covers a wide latitudinal range from 35°N to 80°N

and, hence, a large span in thermal habitats. This is reflected in the

latitudinal gradient from subtropical/temperate species along the

southern fringe to boreal/arctic species along the northern fringe.

Climate change is virtually certain to drive major changes to the northern

fringes of the Atlantic HLSBS by 2100. For the Barents Sea region, which

borders the HLSBS and Arctic regions, modeling projections from 1995 to

2060 (SRES B2 scenario) gave an increase in phytoplankton production

of 8%, an increase in Atlantic zooplankton production of 20%, and a

decrease of Arctic zooplankton production of 50% (Ellingsen et al., 2008).

These changes result in a total increase in zooplankton production in

the HLSBS section of the Barents Sea and a decrease in the Arctic section.

Together with poleward shifts of fish species, a substantial increase in

fish biomass and catch is also very likely at the northern fringes of the

HLSBS (Cheung et al., 2011). However, for some species such as capelin,

which feeds in summer at the ice edge and spawns in spring at the

southern Atlantic Norwegian/Murman coast of the Barents Sea, the

continuous temperature increase is very likely to cause discontinuous

changes in conditions. The limited migration potential for this small

pelagic fish is also likely to drive an eastward shift in spawning areas

to new spawning grounds along the Novaja Semlja coast (Huse and

Ellingsen, 2008).

Observations of fish and other species moving to higher latitudes (Beare

et al., 2005; Perry et al., 2005; Collie et al., 2008; Lucey and Nye, 2010)

within the North Atlantic HLSBS are consistent with results of modeling

exercises (Stenevik and Sundby, 2007; Cheung et al., 2011). Examples

from the Barents (Section 28.2.2.1), Nordic, and North Seas (Box 6-1;

Section 23.4.6) show how warming from the early 1980s influenced

North Atlantic ecosystems, where substantial biological impacts such as

arge-scale modification of the phenology, abundance, and distribution

of plankton assemblages and reorganization of fish assemblages have

been observed (Beaugrand et al., 2002; Edwards, 2004; Edwards and

Richardson, 2004; Tasker, 2008; Nye et al., 2009; Head and Pepin, 2010;

Simpson et al., 2011). The ranges of some cold-water zooplankton

assemblages in the northeast Atlantic have contracted towards the

Arctic since 1958, and have been replaced by warm-water zooplankton

assemblages (specifically copepods) (high confidence), which moved

up to 1000 km northward (Beaugrand et al., 2002; Beaugrand, 2009).

Although changes to surface circulation may have played a role (Reid

et al., 2001), the primary driver of the shift was shown to be regional

warming (Beaugrand et al., 2002; Beaugrand, 2004). Reorganization of

zooplankton communities and an observed decline in mean size has

implications for energy transfer to higher trophic levels including

commercial fish stocks (Beaugrand et al., 2003; Kirby and Beaugrand,

2009; Lindley et al., 2010; Section 23.4.6). Warm-water species of fish

have increased in abundance on both sides of the North Atlantic

(medium confidence; Beare et al., 2005; Collie et al., 2008; Genner et al.,

2010; Hermant et al., 2010; Lucey and Nye, 2010; Simpson et al., 2011).

The diversity of zooplankton and fish has increased as more diverse

warm-water assemblages extend northward in response to changing

environmental conditions (high confidence; Kane, 2007; Hiddink and

ter Hofstede, 2008; Beaugrand, 2009; Mountain and Kane, 2010; ter

Hofstede et al., 2010; Box 6-1; Section 23.4.6).

The past decade has been the warmest decade ever recorded in the

Barents Sea, resulting in large populations of krill shrimp and pelagic

and demersal fish stocks linked to the Atlantic and boreal ecosystem of

the Barents Sea (high confidence; Johannesen et al., 2012; Section

28.2.2.1). Recruitment to boreal fish stocks such as cod, haddock, and

herring has increased (Eriksen et al., 2012). The relatively warm Atlantic

waters have advanced northward and eastward (Årthun et al., 2012)

and sea ice has retreated along with the Arctic water masses. As a result,

boreal euphausiids, which are mainly confined to Atlantic water, have

increased in biomass and distribution (Dalpadado et al., 2012), enhancing

growth of young cod Gadus morhua (boreal) as well as the more Arctic

(arcto-boreal) capelin (Mallotus villosus). The abundance of amphipods

of more Arctic origin has decreased, resulting in poorer feeding conditions

for polar zooplankton predators such as polar cod (Boreogadus saida).

Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), which spawns west of the

British Isles and feeds on zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea during the

summer, extended their summer feeding distribution into the Barents

Sea during the recent warm period.

The Norwegian Sea is one of the two core regions for the herbivore

copepod Calanus finmarchicus, an important prey species for pelagic

fish and early life stages of all fish around the rim of this high-latitude

sea including the North Sea and the Barents Sea (Sundby, 2000). C.

finmarchicus is the main food item for some of the world’s largest fish

stocks such as the Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus),

blue whiting (M. poutassou), and northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber

scombrus). These stocks have increased considerably during the recent

warming that started in the early 1980s (Huse et al., 2012). The individual

size of herring has also increased, enabling longer feeding migrations

to utilize boreal zooplankton occurring closer to distant Arctic water

masses. Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) has advanced northward and

westward into Icelandic waters (Astthorsson et al., 2012) and was even

1679

The Ocean Chapter 30

bserved in East Greenland water in summer 2013 (Nøttestad et al.,

2013). Since 2004, the sum of spawning stock biomass of the three

pelagic fish species (herring, blue whiting, and mackerel) leveled out at

around 16 million tonnes.

Observed changes in the phenology of plankton groups in the North

Sea over the past 50 years are driven by climate forcing, in particular

regional warming (high confidence; Edwards and Richardson, 2004;

Wiltshire and Manly, 2004; Wiltshire et al., 2008; Lindley et al., 2010;

Lindley and Kirby, 2010; Schluter et al., 2010), although responses are

species-specific with substantial variation within functional groups

(Edwards and Richardson, 2004; Box 6-1). For example, the peak

maximum abundance of the copepod C. finmarchicus advanced by 10

days from the 1960s to the 2000s, but its warm-water equivalent, C.

helgolandicus, did not advance (Bonnet et al., 2005). In the North Sea,

bottom temperatures in winter have warmed by 1.6°C (1980–2004;

Dulvy et al., 2008). The whole demersal fish community shifted deeper

by 3.6 m per decade over the period 1980–2004, although mean latitude

of the whole community did not show net displacement (Dulvy et al.,

2008). Within the community, cool-water specialists generally shifted

northward while abundant warm-water species shifted southward,

reflecting winter warming of the southern North Sea. The cold winter

temperatures of the shallow regions of the southern North Sea have

acted to exclude species with warm-water affinities. Trawl survey

data from the rapidly warming southern North Sea suggests waves of

immigration by southern species such as red mullet (Mullus surmuletus),

anchovy (Engraulis encrasicholus), and sardines (Sardina pilchardus),

linked to increasing population sizes and warming temperatures (Beare

et al., 2004, 2005).

In the northeast Atlantic, range expansions and contractions linked to

changing climate have also been observed in benthic crustaceans, bivalves,

gastropods, and polychaetes (medium confidence; Mieszkowska et al.,

2007; Beukema et al., 2009; Berke et al., 2010). For example, the southern

range limit of the common intertidal barnacle, Semibalanus balanoides,

contracted northward along European coastlines at a rate of 15 to 50

km per decade since 1872, and its retreat is attributed to reproductive

failure as winter temperatures warm (Southward et al., 2005; Wethey

and Woodin, 2008). Chthamalus montagui, its warm-water competitor,

increased in abundance to occupy the niche vacated by S. balanoides

(high confidence; Southward et al., 1995; Poloczanska et al., 2008).

Many of the longest and most comprehensive time series used to

investigate the ecological consequences of climate fluctuations and

fishing, that span periods of cooling and warming over the past century,

are from the northeast Atlantic (Toresen and Østvedt, 2000; Southward

et al., 2005; Sundby and Nakken, 2008; Edwards et al., 2010; Poloczanska

et al., 2013). Meta-analysis of 288 long-term data sets (spanning up to

90 years) of zooplankton, benthic invertebrates, fish, and seabirds from

the OSPAR Commission Maritime Area in the North-east Atlantic showed

widespread changes in distribution, abundance, and seasonality that

were consistent (77%) with expectations from enhanced greenhouse

warming (Tasker, 2008). The study brought together evidence of changes

in ocean climate and ecological responses across a range of species that

encompassed both exploited and unexploited species from a variety of

information types including peer-reviewed reports from International

Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Working Groups. In particular,

bservations indicated poleward shifts in zooplankton communities,

increasing abundance of fish species in the northern part of their ranges

and decreases in southern parts, and the expansion of benthic species

into more northerly or less coastal areas (high confidence).

The major portion of the literature on the influence of climate change

on the North Atlantic region covers time spans that are longer than for

most other sub-regions of the Ocean. Even here, however, the bulk of

the literature is limited to the last 30 to 50 years. The few publications

covering the first half of the 20th century represent an important longer

term perspective on the influence of climate change (Toresen and

Østvedt, 2000; Drinkwater, 2006; Sundby and Nakken, 2008; Bañón,

2009; Astthorsson et al., 2012). For example, distinct changes in fauna

were associated with a pronounced warming period over 1920–1940

(Wood and Overland, 2010), when fish and other fauna shifted northward

(Iversen, 1934; Southward et al., 2005; Drinkwater, 2006; Hátún et al.,

2009). The major lesson from these reports is that a rapid large-scale

temperature increase occurred in the high-latitude North Atlantic

between the 1920s and 1940s, with basin-scale consequences for

marine ecosystems that are comparable to warming and observed

impacts over the last 30 years. The former event was of great concern

within the scientific community, particularly during the late 1940s and

early 1950s (Iversen, 1934; Tåning, 1949, 1953; Southward, 1980).

However, with the subsequent long-term cooling in the 1970s, discussion

around climate responses was discontinued (Southward, 1980). The

centennial-long perspective indicates that multi-decadal variability has

played a major role in changes observed over the past 30 years. The

150-year instrumental record shows distinct warm phases of the AMO

during approximately 1930–1965 and from 1995, and cool phases

between approximately 1900–1930 and 1960–1995 (WGI AR5 Section

14.7.6). However, it is virtually certain that the enhanced warming in

recent decades cannot be explained without external forcing (WGI

AR5 Section 10.3.1.1.3). Understanding the changes in inter-decadal

variability over the next century is particularly important. The current

warm phase of the AMO is likely to terminate in the next few decades,

leading to a cooling influence in the North Atlantic and potentially

offsetting some of the effects of global warming (WGI AR5 Sections

11.3.2.4.1, 14.7.6). Over the transition period, the climate of the North

Atlantic is likely to change more rapidly than during previous transitions

since 1900.

30.5.1.1.2. North Pacific

Sub-decadal variability in the North Pacific HLSBS is dominated by ENSO

(Trenberth, 1990; WGI AR5 Section 14.4). Unlike the North Atlantic

HLSBS, the North Pacific HLSBS does not show any significant trends in

temperature over time, very likely as a consequence of climate variability

influences on long-term warming patterns (1950–2009; Table 30-1).

Decadal and longer periods of variability in the North Pacific are

reflected in the principal mode, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO;

WGI AR5 Section 14.7.3), with periodicities in SST of both 15 to 25 years

and 50 to 70 years (Minobe, 1997; Mantua and Hare, 2002). Further

modes of climate variability include the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

(NPGO; Di Lorenzo et al., 2008; Chhak et al., 2009). The PDO exhibits

SST anomalies of one sign along the eastern boundary and the opposite

1680

Chapter 30 The Ocean

n anthropogenic component (Bonfils and Santer, 2011) but confidence

in this is very low (limited evidence, low agreement; WGI AR5 Section

10.3.3). The interplay of the phases of these modes of variability has strong

influence on high-latitude Pacific ecosystems (very high confidence). In the

space of 3 years, the eastern North Pacific fluctuated from one of the

warmest years in the past century (2005) to one of the coldest (2008)

(McKinnell et al., 2010; McKinnell and Dagg, 2010). This rapid change

was accompanied by large changes in primary productivity, zooplankton

communities, and fish and seabird populations (McKinnell et al., 2010;

McKinnell and Dagg, 2010; Batten and Walne, 2011; Bi et al., 2011;

Keister et al., 2011).

Climate transitions among phases of variability tend to be characterized

by abrupt reorganization of the ecosystems as dynamic trophic

relationships among species alter (Hunt et al., 2002; Peterson and

Schwing, 2003; Litzow and Ciannelli, 2007; Litzow et al., 2008; Alheit,

2009). Periods of broad-scale environmental change were observed across

high-latitude ecosystems in the North Pacific HLSBS (eastern Bering Sea

and Gulf of Alaska) during 1976–1978, 1987–1989, and 1998–1999.

These periods were associated with regime shifts in foraging fish that

occurred in 1979–1982, 1988–1992, and 1998–2001. The changes

indicate how basin-scale variability such as the PDO can manifest

across distinct ecosystems (Overland et al., 2008; Link et al., 2009a,b).

Phenological shifts observed in the zooplankton communities of the

North Pacific were very likely in response to decadal climate variability,

with distinct changes noted after the climate shifts of the 1970s and

1990s (Mackas et al., 1998; Peterson and Schwing, 2003; Chiba et al.,

2006). Modeling evidence suggests a weak shift in PDO toward more

occurrences of the negative phase but the credibility of projections

remains uncertain (WGI AR5 Section 14.7.3). It is about as likely as not

that the PDO will change its form or behavior in the future (WGI AR5

Section 14.7.3).

The Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) in the northwest Pacific displays

pronounced decadal-scale variability (Yatsu et al., 2008; Sugisaki et

al., 2010). “Warm periods” in the mid-1970s and late 1980s were

accompanied by dramatic changes in pelagic ecosystems and sardine

and anchovy stocks (Chiba et al., 2008; Yatsu et al., 2008). Observations

and climate model simulations indicate that global warming is likely to

further alter the dynamics of the Kuroshio Current and the KOE over the

coming century (McPhaden and Zhang, 2002; Sakamoto et al., 2005;

Wu et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2014). Alteration of the KOE will alter the

timing, magnitude, and structure of spring blooms in the western Pacific

and have implications for pelagic fish recruitment, production, and

biogeochemical cycles (Ito et al., 2004; Hashioka et al., 2009; Yatsu et

al., 2013).

Commercial catches of salmon species in the North Pacific HLSBS follow

decadal fluctuations in climate (Hare and Mantua, 2000; Mantua and

Hare, 2002). Catches peaked in the warm periods of the 1930s–1940s

and 1990s–2000s, with 2009 yielding the highest catch to date, and

warming trends are about as likely as not to have contributed to recent

peaks in some sub-regions (Morita et al., 2006; Irvine and Fukuwaka,

2011). Poleward range shifts of some large pelagic fish in the western

North Pacific, such as yellowtail Seriola quinqueradiata and Spanish

mackerel Scomberomorus niphonius, were attributed, in part, to regional

warming (high confidence) and these two species are projected to shift

9 to 71 km poleward from the 2000s to 2030s under SRES A1B (Tian

et al., 2012; Jung et al., 2014). Anticipating ecological responses to future

anthropogenic climate change also requires evaluation of the role of

changes to climate beyond warming per se. For example, declining sea

level pressure in the North Pacific is likely influenced by anthropogenic

forcing (Gillett et al., 2003; Gillett and Stott, 2009; WGI AR5 Section

10.3.3.4) and sea level pressure in turn is related to atmospheric climate

parameters (e.g., turbulent mixing via wind stress) that regulate

commercially significant fish populations (Wilderbuer et al., 2002).

The northern fringe of the Bering Sea is among the most productive of

marine sub-regions and includes the world’s largest single-species

fishery, walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma; Hunt et al., 2010).

This region underwent major changes in recent decades as a result of

climate variability, climate change, and fishing impacts (Litzow et al.,

2008; Mueter and Litzow, 2008; Jin et al., 2009; Hunt et al., 2010;

Section 28.2.2.1). Seasonal sea ice cover declined since the 1990s (to

2006), although there is no linear trend between 1953 and 2006, and

the initiation of spring ice retreat over the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

started to occur earlier (Wang et al., 2007a). Concurrent with the retreat

of the “cold pool,” an area of reduced water temperature (<2°C) on

the northern Bering Sea shelf that is formed as a consequence of sea

ice and is maintained over summer (Hunt et al., 2010), bottom trawl

surveys of fish and invertebrates show a significant community-wide

northward distribution shift and a colonization of the former cold pool

areas by sub-Arctic fauna (high confidence; Wang et al., 2006a; Mueter

and Litzow, 2008).

Over a vast region of the eastern Pacific stretching from southern Chile

to the Aleutian Islands, waters low in dissolved O

(Oxygen Minimum

Zone (OMZ)) are found at 300 m depth (Karstensen et al., 2008).

Sporadic upwelling of these low-O

waters along the continental shelf

is well documented, where biological respiration can further reduce

dissolved O

levels and result in hypoxic or anoxic conditions that lead

to mortality of coastal fishes and invertebrates (Grantham et al., 2004;

Chan et al., 2008). The magnitude and severity of seasonal hypoxic

conditions in shallow-shelf waters of the eastern North Pacific HLSBS

increased in recent decades (Bograd et al., 2008; Chan et al., 2008). In

addition, minimum pH values in the water column usually occur near

the depths of the OMZ (WGI AR5 Box 3.2). A shoaling of the aragonite

saturation horizon has likely resulted in low-aragonite conditions within

the density layers being upwelled on the shelf of the west coast of the

USA, increasing the risk of seasonally upwelled water being relatively

acidified (Feely et al., 2008) with observed impacts on Pacific oyster

(Crassostrea gigas) hatcheries (Barton et al., 2012). In the time period

1991–2006, reductions in pH in the North Pacific between 800 and ~100

m were attributed in approximately equal measure to anthropogenic

and natural variations (Byrne et al., 2010; WGI AR5 Section 3.8.2; WGI

AR5 Figure 3.19).

30.5.1.1.3. Southern Hemisphere

The seasonal peaks in phytoplankton productivity in the Southern

Hemisphere are much less pronounced and are of smaller magnitude

than those at Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (Yoder et al., 1993).

The Southern Hemisphere HLSBS is broadly bounded by the subtropical

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The Ocean Chapter 30

ront and the sub-Antarctic front. Associated with the subtropical

front is intense biological activity of bloom-forming coccolithophores

(phytoplankton) (Brown and Yoder, 1994). The calcifying plankton

assemblages play a key role in carbon cycles in the region and the

transport of carbon to deep ocean sediments. The coccolithophore,

Emiliania huxleyi, extended its range south of 60° in the southwest

Pacific (141°E to 145°E) over the 2 decades since 1983 (Cubillos et al.,

2007). Although the drivers for this range extension are not clear, it was

proposed that the extension is facilitated by surface warming or

changes in the abundance of grazing zooplankton.

Large regions of the sub-Antarctic surface waters are likely to become

undersaturated with respect to aragonite during winter by 2030, which

will impact calcifying plankton and Southern Ocean ecosystems (McNeil

and Matear, 2008; Bednaršek et al., 2012; Section 28.2.2.2). Shell

weights of the modern foraminifer, Globigerina bulloides, in the sediments

of the sub-Antarctic region of the HLSBS south of Australia were observed

to be 30 to 35% lower than those from sediment cores representing

preindustrial periods, consistent with a recent decline in pH (Moy et al.,

2009). Examination of the pteropod, Limacina helicina antarctica,

captured from polar waters further south shows severe levels of shell

dissolution consistent with the shoaling of the aragonite saturation

horizon and indicates that the impact of ocean acidification is already

occurring (Bednaršek et al., 2012).

While the South Pacific HLSBS has not shown warming overall, both the

warmest and coolest months show a slight, but significant, increase

over time (both 0.05°C per decade from 1950 to 2009, p-value ≤ 0.05;

Table 30-1), although some areas within this sub-region have warmed.

For example, the western Tasman Sea has shown enhanced warming

since 1900 as compared to average global trends (high confidence).

This has been driven by changes in large-scale wind-forcing leading to

a southward expansion of the South Pacific STG and intensification of

the southward-flowing East Australian Current (EAC; Cai, 2006; Hill et

al., 2008; Wu et al., 2012; WGI AR5 Section 3.6.2). Model simulations

suggest both stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse forcing

contribute to the observed trend in wind stress (Cai and Cowan, 2007).

Coinciding with this warming and intensified EAC is the observation

that a number of benthic invertebrates, fish, and zooplankton are now

found further south than they were in the mid-20th century (Ling, 2008;

Pitt et al., 2010; Last et al., 2011). Warming facilitated the establishment

of the grazing urchin, Centrostephanus rodgersii, in eastern Tasmania

during the late 1970s (high confidence), which has resulted in deleterious

effects on macroalgal beds (Ling, 2008; Ling et al., 2008, 2009; Banks

et al., 2010).

30.5.1.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities

Projected changes to the temperature of surface waters match those of

the past 50 years, with average sea temperatures in the HLSBS regions

projected to increase by 0.35°C to 1.17°C in the near term (2010–2039)

and by 1.70°C to 4.84°C over the long term (2010–2099) under the

“business as usual” (BAU) RCP8.5 scenario (Table SM30-4). Under the

lower case scenario considered here (RCP2.6), projected rates of regional

warming are much lower (0.12°C to 0.79°C) in the near term, with slight

cooling for some regions in the long term (–0.16°C to 1.46°C). Risks to

LSBS from warming of surface waters include changes to primary

production and carbon cycling, and the reorganization of ecosystems in

response to warmer and more acidified oceans. Both primary production

and the timing of the spring bloom in HLSBS are very sensitive to

environmental change. Latitudinal shifts in the distribution of phyto- and

zooplankton communities will alter seasonality, community composition,

and bloom dynamics (Beaugrand, 2009; Ito et al., 2010; Shoji et al., 2011).

Alteration of the structure and composition of plankton communities can

propagate through high-latitude food webs due to tight trophic linkages

(Edwards and Richardson, 2004; Beaugrand et al., 2010; Beaugrand and

Kirby, 2010). Mechanisms are complex, and tend to be non-linear, with

impacts on ecosystems, fisheries, and biogeochemical cycles being hard

to project with any certainty (Box CC-PP). A reorganization of commercial

fish stocks, with attendant social and economic disruption, is a key risk

of ongoing climate change in HLSBS sub-regions. AR4 reported that

the productivity of some marine fisheries is likely to increase in the

North Atlantic (WGII AR4 Sections 10.4.1, 12.4.7). A large number of

publications since then has substantially extended documentation of

these trends and has begun to elucidate the nuances in how marine

ecosystems and organisms respond (Sumaila et al., 2011).

An additional risk exists for sub-polar areas from the loss of seasonal

sea ice. Decreases in seasonal sea ice are very likely to lead to increases

in the length of the growth season and the intensity of the light available

to fuel phytoplankton growth and, hence, enhance primary production

and attending modifications of ecosystem structure (Arrigo et al., 2008).

In the long term, however, primary production may decrease due to the

reduced supply of nutrients to the surface layers (Box CC-PP). The decline

in Arctic sea ice will open ecological dispersal pathways, as well as new

shipping routes (Section 30.6.2.3), between the North Atlantic and the

North Pacific; large numbers of the Pacific diatom, Neodenticula seminae,

were found in the North Atlantic in 1999 (Reid et al., 2007).

HLSBSs are also vulnerable to rapid changes in the carbonate chemistry

of ocean waters. Ocean acidification will produce additional and large-

scale challenges. There is medium agreement that calcifying organisms

in these regions will be negatively affected by ocean acidification, with

substantial impacts on higher trophic levels, although there is limited

evidence at this point.

30.5.2. Equatorial Upwelling Systems

The largest upwelling systems are found in the equatorial regions of

the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (Figure 30-1a). Equatorial

Upwelling Systems (EUS) produce highly productive “cold tongues” that

stretch westward across equatorial areas, which is different from other

upwelling systems (e.g., EBUE; Section 30.5.5). The associated upwelling

is a consequence of the Earth’s rotation and easterly (westward) winds

and currents, which drive water northward and southward at the northern

and southern edges of these sub-regions. As result, cold, nutrient-rich,

and high CO

/low pH waters are transported from the deeper layers of

the Ocean to the surface, driving high levels of primary productivity that

support 4.7% of total global fisheries productivity (Table SM30-1; Figure

30-1b). Interannual modes of variability (e.g., ENSO; WGI AR5 Section

14.4) dominate EUS, particularly in the Pacific (Barber et al., 1994;

McCarthy et al., 1996; Signorini et al., 1999; Le Borgne et al., 2002;

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Chapter 30 The Ocean

hristian and Murtugudde, 2003; Mestas-Nuñez and Miller, 2006;

Pennington et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2006b). Upwelling of the Pacific EUS

declines during El Niño events, when the trade winds weaken, or even

reverse, and is strengthened during La Niña events. ENSO periodicity

controls primary productivity and consequently has a strong influence

over associated fisheries production (Mestas-Nuñez and Miller, 2006).

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ; WGI AR5 Section 14.3.1.1),

an important determinant of regional ocean temperature, is located at

the edges of the Indian and Pacific equatorial upwelling zone and

influences a range of variables including productivity, fisheries, and

precipitation. The EUS are also affected by inter-decadal variability (e.g.,

Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO); Power et al., 1999; WGI AR5

Section 14.3).

30.5.2.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts

The average sea temperature associated with the EUS has increased

significantly (p-value ≤ 0.05), by 0.43°C and 0.54°C from 1950 to 2009

in the Pacific and Atlantic EUS, respectively (Table 30-1). In the Pacific,

regional variability in SST trends is driven by the temporal patterns in

ENSO and the more frequent El Niño Modoki or Central Pacific El Niño

events in recent decades (high confidence; Ashok et al., 2007; Yu and

Kao, 2007; Lee and McPhaden, 2010; WGI AR5 Section 14.2.4.4). The

faster warming of the Atlantic EUS is likely to be associated with a

weakening of upwelling (Tokinaga and Xie, 2011). SLR in the eastern

equatorial Pacific has been decreasing by up to −10 mm yr

–1

since 1993

(Church et al., 2006; Figure 30-5).

Coral reefs in the EUS of the eastern Pacific (e.g., Galápagos and Cocos

Islands) have relatively low species diversity and poorly developed

carbonate reef frameworks, due to the low pH and aragonite saturation

of upwelling waters (high confidence; Glynn, 2001; Manzello et al.,

2008; Manzello, 2010). Prolonged periods of elevated temperature

associated with El Niño have negatively affected corals, kelps, and

associated organisms, and resulted in several possible local extinctions

(high confidence; Glynn, 2011). Since 1985, coral reefs from west of

South America to the Gilbert Islands of Kiribati have experienced the

ighest levels of thermal stress relative to other areas (Donner et al.,

2010). In 1982/1983, mass coral bleaching and mortality affected most

of the reef systems within the eastern equatorial Pacific (Glynn, 1984;

Baker et al., 2008). Subsequent canonical El Niño and Central Pacific

El Niño events in 1997/1998, 2002/2003, 2004/2005, and 2009/2010

(WGI AR5 Section 14.4.2; WGI AR5 Figure 14.13) triggered mass coral

bleaching by adding to the background increases in sea temperatures

(high confidence; Donner et al., 2010; Obura and Mangubhai, 2011;

Vargas-Ángel et al., 2011). In some locations, impacts of El Niño have also

interacted with other anthropogenic changes, such as those arising from

changes to fishing pressure (Edgar et al., 2010), further complicating

the attribution of recent ecological changes to climate change.

30.5.2.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities

Climate models indicate that ENSO is virtually certain to continue to be

a major driver of oceanic variability over the coming century, although

not all models can accurately replicate its behavior (WGI AR5 Section

9.5.3). Superposition of a warming ocean on future ENSO activity

(possibly modified in frequency and intensity) is likely to result in oceanic

conditions that are different from those experienced during past El Niño

and La Niña events (Power and Smith, 2007). Temperatures within EUS

sub-regions are projected to continue to warm significantly (p-value ≤

0.05). Under RCP8.5, SST of the Atlantic EUS is projected to increase by

0.81°C over 2010–2039 and 2.56°C over 2010–2099, with similar

increases projected for the Pacific EUS (Table SM30-4). Differences

between RCPs for the two EUS become clear beyond mid-century, with

warming of SST over 2010–2099 being 0.43°C and 0.46°C under

RCP2.6, and 3.01°C and 3.03°C under RCP8.5, for Pacific and Atlantic

EUS respectively (Table SM30-4). These projected increases in sea

temperature will increase heat stress and ultimately irreversibly degrade

marine ecosystems such as coral reefs (very likely). Further increases in

atmospheric CO

will cause additional decrease in pH and aragonite

saturation of surface waters (adding to the low pH and aragonite

saturation of upwelling conditions), with significant differences between

emission trajectories by the middle of the century. These changes in

ocean carbonate chemistry are very likely to negatively affect some

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 30.3 | How will marine primary productivity change with ocean warming and acidiﬁcation?

Drifting microscopic plants known as phytoplankton are the dominant marine primary producers at the base of

the marine food chain. Their photosynthetic activity is critically important to life in general. It provides oxygen,

supports marine food webs, and inﬂuences global biogeochemical cycles. Changes in marine primary productivity

in response to climate change remain the single biggest uncertainty in predicting the magnitude and direction of

future changes in ﬁsheries and marine ecosystems (low conﬁdence). Changes have been reported to a range of

different ocean systems (e.g., High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems, Subtropical Gyre Systems, Equatorial Upwelling

Systems, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems), some of which are consistent with changes in ocean

temperature, mixing, and circulation. However, direct attribution of these changes to climate change is made difﬁcult

by long-term patterns of variability that inﬂuence productivity of different parts of the Ocean (e.g., Paciﬁc Decadal

Oscillation). Given the importance of this question for ocean ecosystems and ﬁsheries, longer time series studies

for understanding how these systems are changing as a result of climate change are a priority (high agreement).

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The Ocean Chapter 30

arine calcifiers, although many of the species from this region are

adapted to the low aragonite and calcite saturation states that result

from equatorial upwelling, albeit with much lower rates of calcification

(Manzello, 2010; Friedrich et al., 2012). A substantial risk exists with

respect to the synergistic interactions between sea temperature and

declining pH, especially as to how they influence a large number of key

biological processes (Box CC-OA).

There is low confidence in the current understanding of how (or if)

climate change will influence the behavior of ENSO and other long-term

climate patterns (Collins et al., 2010; WGI AR5 Section 12.4.4.2). There

is also low agreement between different CMIP5 General Circulation

Models (GCMs) on how ocean warming will affect ENSO, with no

significant change to ENSO amplitude in half of the models examined,

and both increasing and decreasing activity in others (Guilyardi et al.,

2012). These differences appear to be a consequence of the delicate

balance within ENSO between dampening and amplifying feedbacks,

and the different emphasis given to these processes within the different

GCMs (Collins et al., 2010). Other studies have looked at the interaction

between the STG and EUS, and warming of surface waters in the Pacific,

with at least one study projecting the possible expansion of the STG at

the expense of the EUS (Polovina et al., 2011). In the latter case, the

area of equatorial upwelling within the North Pacific would decrease

by 28%, and primary production and fish catch by 15%, by 2100. Many

of the projected changes imply additional consequences for pelagic

fisheries resulting from the migration of fish stocks deriving from

changing distribution of particular sea temperatures (Lehodey et al., 2006,

2008, 2011; Cheung et al., 2010; Sumaila et al., 2011; Bell et al., 2013b).

These projections suggest that fisheries within EUS will experience

increased vulnerability as a result of climate change (low confidence).

30.5.3. Semi-Enclosed Seas

Semi-Enclosed Seas (SES) represent a subset of ocean sub-regions

that are largely land locked and consequently heavily influenced by

surrounding landscapes and local climates (Healy and Harada, 1991). In

most cases, they support small but regionally significant fisheries (3.3%

of global production; Table SM30-1; Figure 30-1b) and opportunities for

other industries such as tourism. Five SES (all over 200,000 km² with

single entrances <120 km wide) are considered here. This particular

geography results in reduced circulation and exchange with ocean waters,

and jurisdictions for these water bodies that are shared by two or more

neighboring states. In many cases, the small volume and disconnected

nature of SES (relative to coastal and oceanic environments) makes

them highly vulnerable to both local and global stressors, especially with

respect to the much reduced options for the migration of organisms as

conditions change.

30.5.3.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts

30.5.3.1.1. Arabian Gulf

The Arabian Gulf (also referred to as the Persian Gulf), along with the

Red Sea, is the world’s warmest sea, with both extreme negative and

positive temperature excursions (annual temperature range of 12°C to

5°C). Like other SES, the Arabian Gulf is particularly vulnerable to

changing environmental conditions as a result of its landlocked nature.

Trends in SST were not significant over the period 1950–2009 (Table

30-1), which is probably due to long-term variability, and a consequence

of regional and abrupt changes that occurred in the late 1980s (Conversi

et al., 2010). In keeping with this, recent (1985–2002) localized analyses

(e.g., Kuwait Bay) show strong and significant warming trends (based

in this case on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite data)

of 0.6°C per decade (Al-Rashidi et al., 2009). There is limited evidence

and low agreement as to how this variability influences marine ecosystems

and human activities within the Arabian Gulf, although impacts on some

ecosystem components (e.g., coral reefs) have been defined to some

extent. The mass coral bleaching and mortality that occurred in 1996

and 1998 were a direct result of the sensitivity of reef-building corals

to unusually elevated sea temperatures (high confidence; Riegl, 2002,

2003; Box CC-CR). These changes to coral reefs have resulted in a loss

of fish species that feed on coral-associated invertebrates while

herbivores and planktivorous fish abundances have increased (medium

confidence; Riegl, 2002). Despite coral ecosystems in this sub-region

being adapted to some of the highest temperatures in shallow seas on

Earth, anthropogenic climate change is driving higher frequencies and

intensities of mass coral bleaching and mortality (Riegl et al., 2011).

Other biological changes (e.g., harmful algal blooms and fish kills; Heil

et al., 2001) have been associated with the increasing sea temperatures

of the Arabian Gulf, although attribution to increasing temperatures as

opposed to other factors (e.g., water quality) is limited (Bauman et al.,

2010).

30.5.3.1.2. Red Sea

Few studies have focused on attributing recent changes in Red Sea

ecosystems to climate change (including ocean acidification). The Red

Sea warmed by 0.74°C from 1982 to 2006 (Belkin, 2009), although

trends in the average SST, however, are not significant from 1950 to

2009 (p-value > 0.05; Table 30-1) owing to a high degree of variability

involved when longer periods were examined (supplementary material

in Belkin, 2009). The temperature of the warmest month of the year,

however, showed a significant increase over the 60-year period (0.05°C

per decade; Table 30-1). Regional trends within the Red Sea may also

differ, with at least one other study reporting higher rates of warming

for the central Red Sea (1.46°C, relative to 1950–1997 NOAA Extended

Reconstructed SST (ERSST) v3b climatology; Cantin et al., 2010).

Long-term monitoring of coral community structure and size over 20

years shows that average colony size of corals has declined (high

confidence) and species’ latitudinal limits may have changed (medium

confidence). The decline in average colony size is ascribed to heat-

mediated bleaching as well as increases in coral diseases and crown of

thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) predation (Riegl et al., 2012). The

patterns of this decline correlate well with the pattern of recent heating

in the Red Sea (Raitsos et al., 2011), with the biggest changes being

seen in the southern part of the Red Sea. Skeletal growth of the long-

lived massive coral Diploastrea heliopora has declined significantly, very

likely due to warming temperatures (medium confidence; p-value ≥ 0.05;

Cantin et al., 2010).

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Chapter 30 The Ocean

antin et al. (2010) proposed that the massive coral Diploastrea helipora

will cease to grow in the central Red Sea by 2070 under SRES A1B and

A2 (medium confidence), although this may not hold for other coral

species. For example, an increase in linear extension of Porites corals,

beginning in the 1980s, was recorded in the northern Red Sea (Heiss,

1996), where temperatures have increased by 0.74ºC from 1982 to 2006

(Belkin, 2009), suggesting that these corals were living in sub-optimal

conditions (cooler waters). They may therefore benefit from elevated

temperature before reaching their thermal threshold, at which point

growth rates would be predicted to decline, as they are doing in other

oceans. Riegl and Piller (2003) concluded that coral habitats at moderate

depths in the Red Sea might provide important refugia from some aspects

of climate change in the future (limited evidence). Silverman et al.

(2007) quantified the sensitivity of net coral reef ecosystem calcification

to changes in carbonate chemistry (pH, aragonite saturation). Their

results demonstrate a strong negative effect of ocean acidification on

ecosystem-scale calcification and decalcification, and show that small

changes in carbonate dissolution could have large-scale implications

for the long-term persistence of carbonate coral reef systems within the

Red Sea (Silverman et al., 2007, 2009).

30.5.3.1.3. Black Sea

The temperature of the surface waters of the Black Sea increased by

0.96ºC from 1982 to 2006 (Belkin, 2009), which is consistent with other

studies (high confidence; Buongiorno Nardelli et al., 2010; Bozkurt and

Sen, 2011). As with other SES (i.e., Arabian Gulf and Baltic, Mediterranean,

and Red Seas), longer data sets do not reveal a significant trend due to

large-scale variability prior to 1982, which may be due to the influence

of AMO, NAO, and other long-term sources of variability (Table 30-1;

supplementary material in Belkin, 2009). Buongiorno Nardelli et al.

(2010) observed that short-term SST variability (week-month) is strongly

influenced by interactions with the overlying atmosphere, which itself

is strongly influenced by the surrounding land temperatures. As with

the Mediterranean and Red Seas, however, a significant upward trend

in the temperature is recorded in the warmest month of the year over

the period 1950–2009 (Table 30-1). Freshwater discharge from rivers

draining into the Black Sea has remained more or less constant since

the early 1960s (Ludwig et al., 2009). Increasing water temperature has

steadily eliminated the Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL; temperatures below

8°C) throughout the Black Sea basin over 1991–2003 (high confidence;

Oguz et al., 2003). Reduced water column mixing and upwelling during

warmer winter periods has reduced the supply of nutrients to the upper

layers of the Black Sea (Oguz et al., 2003) and expanded areas of low

in the deeper parts of the Black Sea, which is the world’s largest

anoxic marine basin (high confidence; Murray et al., 1989). These

changes coincided with the collapse of fish stocks and the invasion by

the ctenophore, Mnemiopsis leidyi, in the 1980s (Oguz et al., 2008),

while inputs of nutrients such as phosphate from the Danube River

has decreased strongly since 1992–1993 (Oguz and Velikova, 2010).

Environmental perturbations explain the declining levels of primary

productivity, phytoplankton, bacterioplankton, and fish stocks in the

Black Sea from the mid-1990s (Yunev et al., 2007; Oguz and Velikova,

2010). The Black Sea system is very dynamic and is strongly affected by

non-climate stressors in addition to climate change, making attribution

of detected trends to climate change difficult.

30.5.3.1.4. Baltic Sea

Temperatures in the highly dynamic Baltic Sea increased substantially

since the early 1980s (Aleksandrov et al., 2009; Belkin, 2009), with

increases of 1.35°C (1982–2006) being among the highest rate of change

seen in any SES (Belkin, 2009). Increases of this magnitude are not seen

in longer records throughout the Baltic Sea (1861–2001: MacKenzie et

al., 2007; MacKenzie and Schiedek, 2007a,b; 1900–1998: Madsen and

Højerslev, 2009). The salinity of the surface and near bottom waters of

the Baltic Sea, for example, Gdansk Basin (Aleksandrov et al., 2009)

and central Baltic (Fonselius and Valderrama, 2003; Möllmann et al.,

2003), decreased from 1975 to 2000, due to changing rainfall and river

runoff, and a reduction in the pulses of seawater (vital for oxygenation

and related chemical changes) from the North Sea through its opening

via the Kattegat (high confidence; Samuelsson, 1996; Conley et al., 2009;

Hänninen and Vuorinen, 2011). There is a strong vertical zonation within

the Baltic Sea in terms of the availability of O

. The shallow sub-regions

of the Baltic are relatively well oxygenated. However, O

levels are low

in the deeper basins, producing conditions in which organisms and

ecosystems are exposed to prolonged hypoxia.

The annual biomass of phytoplankton has declined almost threefold in

the Baltic Transition Zone (Kattegat, Belt Sea) and Western Baltic Sea

since 1979 (Henriksen, 2009), reputedly due to changing nitrogen loads

in the Danish Straits (medium confidence) in addition to increasing

sea temperature (very likely; Madsen and Højerslev, 2009). Reduced

phytoplankton production may have decreased the productivity of

fisheries in the western Baltic Sea and the Transition Zone (low to

medium confidence; Chassot et al., 2007). Decreasing salinity in the Baltic

deep basins may also affect zooplankton reproduction, especially that of

the copepod Pseudocalanus acuspes, contributing to density-dependent

decrease in growth of the commercially important herring and sprat

stocks (high confidence; Möllmann et al., 2003, 2005; Casini et al., 2011).

The strong relationship between phytoplankton and fish production, and

increasing sea temperature, decreasing salinity, and other environmental

factors, suggests that major changes in fisheries production will occur

as sea temperatures increase and the hydrological cycle in the Baltic

region changes (high confidence; MacKenzie et al., 2012). A combination

of climate change-induced oceanographic changes (i.e., decreased salinity

and increased temperatures), eutrophication, and overfishing have

resulted in major changes in trophic structure in the deep basins of the

Baltic Sea (Möllmann et al., 2009). This had important implications

for cod, a commercially important top predator (medium confidence;

Lindegren et al., 2010).

30.5.3.1.5. Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean Sea is strongly linked to the climates of North Africa

and Central Europe. SST within the Mediterranean increased by 0.43°C

from 1957 to 2008 (supplementary material in Belkin, 2009), although

analysis of data from 1950 to 2009 detected only a significant trend in

summer temperature (0.11°C per decade, p-value ≤ 0.05; Table 30-1)

due to large fluctuations in SST prior to the 1980s. Surface temperatures

increased in the Mediterranean Sea consistent with significant increases

in SST at a number of monitoring sites (robust evidence, high agreement;

e.g., Coma et al., 2009; Conversi et al., 2010; Calvo et al., 2011). It is

1685

The Ocean Chapter 30

ikely that temperatures, along with salinity, have also increased at

depth (400 m or more) in the western Mediterranean Sea over the past

30 to 40 years which, when analyzed in the context of heat budget and

water flux of the Mediterranean, is consistent with anthropogenic

greenhouse warming (Bethoux et al., 1990; Rixen et al., 2005; Vargas-

Yáñez et al., 2010). Large-scale variability such as the AMO and NAO

can obscure or accentuate the overall warming trend (Marullo et al.,

2011; WGI AR5 Sections 14.5.1, 14.7.6). Relatively warm episodes in the

1870s, 1930–1970s, and since the mid-1990s, for example, exhibit an

influence of the AMO (Kerr, 2000; Moron, 2003). Reported temperature

anomalies in the Mediterranean, often locally manifesting themselves

as periods of low wind, increased water column stratification, and a

deepening thermocline, are associated with positive phases of the NAO

index (Molinero et al., 2005; Lejeusne et al., 2010).

Sea levels have increased rapidly in some areas over recent decades

and are also strongly influenced by NAO phases. The rate has been

approximately 3.4 mm yr

–1

(1990–2009) in the northwest Mediterranean

(high confidence; Calvo et al., 2011). These influences are reduced when

measurements are pooled over longer time scales, resulting in a lower

rate of SLR (Massuti et al., 2008). If the positive phase of the NAO is

more frequent in the future (Terray et al., 2004; Kuzmina et al., 2005;

WGI AR5 Section 14.4.2), then future SLR may be slightly suppressed

as a result of atmospheric influences (medium confidence; Jordà et al.,

2012). As temperatures have increased, the Mediterranean has become

more saline (+0.035 to 0.040 psu from 1950 to 2000; Rixen et al., 2005)

with the length of the thermal stratification period persisting twice as

long in 2006 as it did in 1974 (Coma et al., 2009).

Conditions within the Mediterranean Sea changed abruptly and

synchronously with similar changes across the North, Baltic, and Black

Seas in the late 1980s (Conversi et al., 2010), which possibly explains the

lack of trend in SES SST when examined from 1950 to 2009 (Table 30-1).

These changes in physical conditions (increased temperature, higher sea

level pressure, positive NAO index) also coincided with step changes in

the diversity and abundance of zooplankton, decreases in stock abundance

of anchovies and the frequency of “red tides,” and increases in mucilage

outbreaks (Conversi et al., 2010). Mucilage outbreaks are strongly

associated with warmer and more stratified water columns (high

confidence), and lead to a greater abundance and diversity of marine

microbes and potentially disease-causing organisms (likely; Danovaro

et al., 2009). Increasing temperatures are also driving the northward

spread of warm-water species (medium confidence) such as the sardine

Sardinella aurita (Sabatés et al., 2006; Tsikliras, 2008), and have

contributed to the spread of the invading Atlantic coral Oculina patagonia

(Serrano et al., 2013). The recent spread of warm-water species that have

invaded through the Straits of Gibraltar and the Suez Canal into cooler

northern areas is leading to the “tropicalization” of Mediterranean

fauna (high confidence; Bianchi, 2007; Ben Rais Lasram and Mouillot,

2008; CIESM, 2008; Galil, 2008, 2011). Warming since the end of the

1990s has accelerated the spread of tropical invasive species from the

eastern Mediterranean basin (Raitsos et al., 2010; Section 23.6.5).

In addition to general warming patterns, periods of extreme temperatures

have had large-scale and negative consequences for Mediterranean

marine ecosystems. Unprecedented mass mortality events, which affected

at least 25 prominent invertebrate species, occurred during the summers

f 1999, 2003, and 2006 across hundreds of kilometers of coastline in

the northwest Mediterranean Sea (very high confidence; Cerrano et al.,

2000; Garrabou et al., 2009; Calvo et al., 2011; Crisci et al., 2011). Events

coincided with either short periods (2 to 5 days: 2003, 2006) of high

sea temperatures (27°C) or longer periods (30 to 40 days) of modestly

high temperatures (24°C: 1999; Bensoussan et al., 2010; Crisci et al.,

2011). Impacts on marine organisms have been reported in response

to the extreme conditions during these events (e.g., gorgonian coral

mortality; Coma et al., 2009), shoot mortality, and anomalous flowering

of seagrasses (high confidence; Diaz-Almela et al., 2007; Marbà and

Duarte, 2010). The frequency and intensity of these types of heat

stress events are expected to increase as sea temperatures increase

(high confidence).

Longer-term data series (over several decades) of changes in relative

acidity of the Mediterranean Sea are scarce (Calvo et al., 2011; The

MerMex Group, 2011). Recent re-analysis, however, has concluded that

the pH of Mediterranean waters has decreased by 0.05 to 0.14 pH units

since the preindustrial period (medium confidence; Luchetta et al., 2010;

Touratier and Goyet, 2011). Anthropogenic CO

has penetrated the

entire Mediterranean water column, with the western basin being more

contaminated than the eastern basin (Touratier and Goyet, 2011).

Studies that have explored the consequences of ocean acidification for

the biology and ecology of the Mediterranean Sea are rare (Martin and

Gattuso, 2009; Rodolfo-Metalpa et al., 2010; Movilla et al., 2012),

although insights have been gained by studying natural CO

seeps at

Mediterranean sites such as Ischia in Italy, where biodiversity decreases

with decreasing pH toward the vents, with a notable decline in calcifiers

(Hall-Spencer et al., 2008). Transplants of corals, molluscs, and bryozoans

along the acidification gradients around seeps reveal a low level of

vulnerability to CO

levels expected over the next 100 years (low

confidence; Rodolfo-Metalpa et al., 2010, 2011). However, periods of high

temperature can increase vulnerability to ocean acidification, thereby

increasing the long-term risk posed to Mediterranean organisms and

ecosystems as temperatures warm. Significantly, some organisms such

as seagrasses and some macroalgae appeared to benefit from local

ocean acidification (Hall-Spencer et al., 2008).

30.5.3.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities

SES are highly vulnerable to changes in global temperature on account

of their small volume and landlocked nature. Consequently, SES will

respond faster than most other parts of the Ocean (high confidence).

Risks to ecosystems within SES are likely to increase as water columns

become further stratified under increased warming, promoting hypoxia

at depth and reducing nutrient supply to the upper water column

(medium evidence, high agreement). The impact of rising temperatures

on SES is exacerbated by their vulnerability to other human influences

such as over-exploitation, pollution, and enhanced runoff from modified

coastlines. Due to a mixture of global and local human stressors, key

fisheries have undergone fundamental changes in their abundance and

distribution over the past 50 years (medium confidence). A major risk

exists for SES from projected increases in the frequency of temperature

extremes that drive mass mortality events, increasing water column

stabilization leading to reduced mixing, and changes to the distribution

and abundance of marine organisms. The vulnerability of marine

1686

Chapter 30 The Ocean

cosystems, fisheries, and human communities associated with the SES

will continue to increase as global temperatures increase.

Sea temperatures are very likely to increase in the five SES under

moderate (RCP6.0) to high (RCP8.5) future scenarios. Under BAU (RCP8.5;

Table SM30-3), sea temperatures in the SES are projected to increase by

0.93°C to 1.24°C over 2010–2039 (Table SM30-4). Increases of 3.45°C

to 4.37°C are projected over 2010–2099, with the greatest increases

projected for the surface waters of the Baltic Sea (4.37°C) and Arabian

Gulf (4.26°C), and lower yet substantial amounts of warming in the Red

Sea (3.45°C) (Table SM30-4). The heat content added to these small

ocean regions is very likely to increase stratification, which will reduce

the nutrient supply to the upper layers of the water column, reducing

primary productivity and driving major changes to the structure and

productivity of fisheries. Reduced mixing and ventilation, along with

increased microbial metabolism, will very likely increase hypoxia and

expand the number and extent of “dead zones.” Changing rainfall

intensity (Section 23.3; WGI AR5 Section 12.4.5) can exert a strong

influence on the physical and chemical conditions within SES, and in

some cases will combine with other climatic changes to transform these

areas. These changes are likely to increase the risk of reduced bottom-

water O

levels to Baltic and Black Sea ecosystems (due to reduced

solubility, increased stratification, and microbial respiration), which is

very likely to affect fisheries. These changes will increase the frequency

and intensity of impacts arising from heat stress, based on responses

to temperature extremes seen over the past 30 years, such as the mass

mortality of benthic organisms that occurred in the Mediterranean Sea

during the summers of 1999, 2003, and 2006, and the Arabian Gulf in

1996 and 1998. Extreme temperature events such as heat waves are

projected to increase (high confidence; Section 23.2; IPCC, 2012).

Projections similar to those outlined in Section 30.5.4.2 can be applied to

the coral reefs of the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea, where temperatures

are very likely to increase above established thresholds for mass coral

bleaching and mortality (very high confidence; Figure 30-10).

30.5.4. Coastal Boundary Systems

The Coastal Boundary Systems (CBS) are highly productive regions,

comprising 10.6% of primary production and 28.0% of global fisheries

production (Table SM30-1; Figure 30-1b). The CBS include the marginal

seas of the northwest Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, encompassing

the Bohai/Yellow Sea, East China Sea, South China Sea, and Southeast

Asian Seas (e.g., the Timor, Arafura, and Sulu Seas, and the northern

coast of Australia) in the Pacific; the Arabian Sea, Somali Current system,

East Africa coast, Mozambique Channel, and Madagascar in the Indian

Ocean; and the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the Atlantic Ocean).

Some CBS are dominated by powerful currents such as the Kuroshio

(Pacific), or are strongly influenced by monsoons (e.g., Asian-Australian

and African monsoons).

30.5.4.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts

Many ecosystems within the CBS are strongly affected by the local

activities of often-dense coastal human populations. Activities such as

the overexploitation of fisheries, unsustainable coastal development,

nd pollution have resulted in the widespread degradation of CBS

ecosystems (Burke et al., 2002, 2011). These influences have combined

with steadily increasing ocean temperature and acidification to drive

major changes to a range of important ecosystems over the past 50

years. Understanding the interactions between climate change and non-

climate change drivers is a central part of the detection and attribution

process within the CBS.

Overall, the CBS warmed by 0.14°C to 0.80°C from 1950 to 2009 (Table

30-1), although changes within the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea sub-

region were not significant (p-value > 0.05) over this period. Key sub-

regions within the CBS such as the Coral Triangle and Western Indian

Ocean warmed by 0.79°C and 0.60°C, respectively, from 1950 to 2009

(Table 30-1). Rates of SLR vary from decreasing sea levels (–5 to –10

mm yr

–1

) to low (2 to 3 mm yr

–1

, Caribbean) to very high (10 mm yr

–1

Southeast Asia; Figure 30-5) rates of increase. Ocean acidification also

varies from region to region (Figure SM30-2), and is influenced by

oceanographic and coastal processes, which often have a large human

component.

30.5.4.1.1. Bohai/Yellow Sea/East China Sea

The Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and the East China Sea (ECS) are shallow

marginal seas along the edge of the northwest Pacific that are strongly

influenced by the Kuroshio Current (Matsuno et al., 2009), the East

Asian Monsoon (EAM), and major rivers such as the Yellow (Huang He)

and Yangtze (Changjiang) Rivers. Upwelling of the Kuroshio sub-surface

waters provides abundant nutrients that support high levels of primary

productivity (Wong et al., 2000, 2001). The ecosystems of the ECS are

heavily affected by human activities (e.g., overfishing and pollution),

which tend to compound the influence and consequences of climate

change.

SST within the ECS has increased rapidly since the early 1980s (high

confidence; Lin et al., 2005; Jung, 2008; Cai et al., 2011; Tian et al.,

2012). The largest increases in SST have occurred in the ECS in winter

(1.96°C, 1955–2005) and in the Yellow Sea in summer (1.10°C, 1971–

2006; Cai et al., 2011). These changes in SST are closely linked to a

weakening of the EAM (e.g., Cai et al., 2006, 2011; Tang et al., 2009) and

increasing warmth of the Kuroshio Current (Qi et al., 2010; Zhang et al.,

2011; Wu et al., 2012). At the same time, dissolved O

has decreased (Lin

et al., 2005; Jung, 2008; Qi et al., 2010), with an associated increase in

the extent of the hypoxic areas in coastal areas of the Yellow Sea/ECS

(Jung, 2008; Tang, 2009; Ning et al., 2011).

Primary productivity, biomass yields, and fish capture rates have

experienced large changes within the ECS over the past decades (limited

evidence, medium agreement; low confidence; Tang et al., 2003; Lin et

al., 2005; Tang, 2009). Fluctuations in herring abundance appear to

closely track SST shifts within the Yellow Sea (Tang, 2009). For plankton

and fish species, the proportions of warm-water species relative to

warm-temperate species in the Changjiang River Estuary (extending to

the southern Taiwan Strait) have changed over past decades (Zhang et

al., 2005; Ma et al., 2009; Lin and Yang, 2011). Northward shifts in catch

distribution for some pelagic fish species in Korean waters were driven,

in part, by warming SST (medium confidence; Jung et al., 2014). The

1687

The Ocean Chapter 30

requency of harmful algal blooms and blooms of the giant jellyfish

Nemopilema nomurai in the offshore area of the ECS have increased

and have been associated with ocean warming and other factors such

as eutrophication (Ye and Huang, 2003; Tang, 2009; Cai and Tan, 2010).

Although attribution of these changes to anthropogenic climate change

is complicated by the increasing influence of non-climate-related human

activities, many of these changes are consistent with those expected as

SST increases.

30.5.4.1.2. South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS) is surrounded by continental areas and

includes large numbers of islands, and is connected to the Pacific, ECS,

and Sulu Sea by straits such as the Luzon and Taiwan Strait. The region

is greatly influenced by cyclones/typhoons, and by the Pearl, Red, and

Mekong Rivers. The region has a distinct seasonal circulation and is

greatly influenced by the southwest monsoon (in summer), the Kuroshio

Current, and northeast monsoon (in winter). The SCS includes significant

commercial fisheries areas and includes coral reefs, mangroves, and

seagrass beds.

The surface waters of the SCS have been warming steadily from 1945

to 1999 with the annual mean SST in the central SCS increasing by

0.92°C (1950–2006; Cai et al., 2009), a rate similar to that observed for

the entire Indo-Pacific/Southeast Asian CBS from 1950 to 2009 (0.80°C;

Table 30-1). Significant freshening in the SCS intermediate layer since

the 1960s has been observed (Liu et al., 2007). The temperature change

of the upper layers of the SCS has made a significant contribution to

sea level variation, which is heterogeneous in space and time (Li et al.,

2002; Cheng and Qi, 2007; Liu et al., 2007).

Identifying the extent to which climate change is influencing the SCS is

difficult due to confounding non-climate change factors and their

interactions (e.g., local human pollution, over-exploitation together with

“natural” climate variability such as EAM, ENSO, and PDO). Changing

sea temperatures have influenced the abundance of phytoplankton,

benthic biomass, cephalopod fisheries, and the size of demersal trawl

catches in the northern SCS observed over the period 1976–2004

(limited evidence, medium agreement; Ning et al., 2009). Coral reefs

and mangroves are degrading rapidly as a result of both climate change

and non-climate change-related factors (very likely; Box CC-CR; Chen

et al., 2009; China-SNAP, 2011; Zhao et al., 2012). Mass coral bleaching

and mortality of coral reefs within the SCS were triggered by elevated

temperatures in 1998 and 2007 (Yu et al., 2006; Li et al., 2011).

Conversely, warming enabled the establishment of a high-latitude, non-

carbonate, coral community in Daya Bay in northern SCS, although this

community has recently degraded as a result of increasing anthropogenic

stresses (Chen et al., 2009; Qiu et al., 2010).

30.5.4.1.3. Southeast Asian Seas

The Southeast Asian Seas (SAS) include an archipelago of diverse islands

that interact with the westward flow of the North Equatorial Current

and the Indonesian Throughflow (Figure 30-1a). A large part of this

region is referred to as the “Coral Triangle” (Veron et al., 2009). The

orld’s most biologically diverse marine area, it includes parts of

Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Timor Leste, the Solomon Islands,

and Papua New Guinea. SST increased significantly from 1985 to 2006

(Peñaflor et al., 2009; McLeod et al., 2010), although with considerable

spatial variation. Trends examined over longer periods (1950–2009)

show significant warming (+0.80°C, p-value ≤ 0.05; Table 30-1). The

sea level is rising by up to 10 mm yr

–1

in much of this region (Church et

al., 2004, 2006; Green et al., 2010). Like other tropical areas in the world,

coral reefs within SAS have experienced periods of elevated temperature,

which has driven several mass coral bleaching and mortality events

since the early 1980s (high confidence; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2009;

McLeod et al., 2010; Figure 30-10a). The most recent occurred during

warm conditions in 2010 (Krishnan et al., 2011). These changes are the

result of increasing ocean temperatures and are very likely to be a

consequence of anthropogenic climate change (high confidence; Box

CC-CR; WGI AR5 Section 10.4.1). Although calcification rates of some

key organisms (e.g., reef-building corals; Tanzil et al., 2009) have slowed

over the past 2 decades, it is not possible to conclude that the changes

are due to ocean acidification. While a large part of the decline in coral

reefs has been due to increasing local stresses (principally destructive

fishing, declining water quality, and over-exploitation of key reef species),

projected increases in SST represent a major challenge for these valuable

ecosystems (high agreement; Burke et al., 2002; Burke and Maidens,

2004).

30.5.4.1.4. Arabian Sea and Somali Current

The Arabian Sea and Somali Current are relatively productive ocean

areas, being strongly influenced by upwelling and the monsoonal system.

Wind-generated upwelling enhances primary production in the western

Arabian Sea (Prakash and Ramesh, 2007). Several key fisheries within

this region are under escalating pressure from both fishing and climate

change. SST increased by 0.18°C and 0.26°C in the Arabian Sea and

Somali Current, respectively, from 1982 to 2006 (HadSST2; Rayner et

al., 2003; Belkin, 2009), which is consistent with the overall warming

of the Western Indian Ocean portion of the CBS from 1950 to 2009

(0.60°C; Table 30-1). Salinity of surface waters in the Arabian Sea

increased by 0.5 to 1.0% over the past 60 years (Figure 30-6c), due to

increased evaporation from warming seas and contributions from the

outflows of the saline Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. As in other tropical

sub-regions, increasing sea temperatures have increased the frequency

of mass coral bleaching and mortality within this region (Wilkinson and

Hodgson, 1999; Goreau et al., 2000; Wilkinson, 2004).

The aragonite saturation horizon in both the Arabian Sea and Bay of

Bengal is now 100 to 200 m shallower than in preindustrial times as a

result of ocean acidification (medium confidence; Feely et al., 2004).

Shoaling of the aragonite saturation horizon is likely to affect a range

of organisms and processes, such as the depth distribution of pteropods

(zooplankton) in the western Arabian Sea (medium confidence; Hitchcock

et al., 2002; Mohan et al., 2006). More than 50% of the area of OMZs

in the world’s oceans occur in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and

long-term measurements reveal that O

concentrations are declining in

this region (high confidence; Helly and Levin, 2004; Karstensen et al.,

2008; Stramma et al., 2010; Section 30.3.2.3). The information regarding

the consequences of climate change within this region is undeveloped

1688

Chapter 30 The Ocean

nd suggests that important physical, chemical, and biological responses

to climate change need to be the focus of further investigation.

30.5.4.1.5. East Africa coast and Madagascar

The Western Indian Ocean strongly influences the coastal conditions

associated with Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, La Réunion,

Mayotte, and three archipelagos (Comoros, Mauritius, and the Seychelles).

Sea temperatures in the Western Indian Ocean have increased by 0.60°C

over 1950–2009 (high confidence; p-value ≤ 0.05; Table 30-1), increasing

the frequency of positive thermal anomalies that have triggered mass

coral bleaching and mortality events across the region over the past

2 decades (high confidence; Baker et al., 2008; Nakamura et al., 2011;

Box CC-HS). Trends in changes in SST and surface salinity vary with

location along the East African coastline, with faster rates at higher

latitudes (Figure 30-2). Periods of heat stress over the past 20 years have

triggered mass coral bleaching and mortality on coral reef ecosystems

within this region (McClanahan et al., 2007, 2009a,b,c; Ateweberhan

and McClanahan, 2010; Ateweberhan et al., 2011). Steadily increasing

sea temperatures have also produced anomalous growth rates in long-

lived corals such as Porites (high confidence; McClanahan et al., 2009b).

Differences in the susceptibility of reef-building corals to stress from

rising sea temperatures has also resulted in changes to the composition

of coral (high confidence; p-value ≤ 0.05; McClanahan et al., 2007) and

benthic fish communities (high confidence; p-value ≤ 0.05; Graham et

al., 2008; Pratchett et al., 2011a). These changes are very likely to alter

species composition and potentially the productivity of coastal fisheries

(robust evidence, high agreement; high confidence; Jury et al., 2010),

although there may be a significant lag between the loss of coral

communities and the subsequent changes in the abundance and

community structure of fish populations (p-value ≤ 0.05; Graham et al.,

2007). Some of these potential changes can be adverted or reduced by

interventions such as the establishment of marine protected areas and

changes to fishing management (McClanahan et al., 2008; Cinner et al.,

2009; Jury et al., 2010; MacNeil et al., 2010).

30.5.4.1.6. Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea form a semi-contained maritime

province within the Western Atlantic. These areas are dominated by a

range of activities including mineral extraction, fishing, and tourism, which

provide employment and opportunity for almost 75 million people who

live in coastal areas of the USA, Mexico, and a range of other Caribbean

nations (Adams et al., 2004). The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

have warmed by 0.31°C and 0.50°C, respectively, from 1982 to 2006

(very likely; Belkin, 2009). Warming trends are not significant from

1950 to 2009 (Table 30-1), which may be partly due to spatial variability

in warming patterns (Section 30.5.3.1). The Caribbean region has

experienced a sustained decrease in aragonite saturation state from

1996 to 2006 (very likely; Gledhill et al., 2008). Sea levels within the

Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea have increased at the rate of 2 to 3

mm yr

–1

from 1950 to 2000 (Church et al., 2004; Zervas, 2009).

Understanding influences of climate change on ocean ecosystems in

this region is complicated by the confounding influence of growing

uman populations and activities. The recent expansion of the seasonal

hypoxic zone, and the associated “dead zone,” in the Gulf of Mexico

has been attributed to nitrogen inputs driven by land management

(Turner and Rabalais, 1994; Donner et al., 2004) and changes to river

flows, wind patterns, and thermal stratification of Gulf waters (high

confidence; Justić et al., 1996, 2007; Levin et al., 2009; Rabalais et al.,

2009). The increases in coastal pollution and fishing have potentially

interacted with climate change to exacerbate impacts on marine

ecosystems within this region (Sections 5.3.4, 29.3). These changes have

often been abrupt and non-linear (Taylor et al., 2012).

A combination of local and global disturbances has driven a large-scale

loss of reef-building corals across the Caribbean Sea since the late 1970s

(high confidence; Hughes, 1994; Gardner et al., 2003). Record thermal

stress in 2005 triggered the largest mass coral bleaching and mortality

event on record for the region, damaging coral reefs across hundreds of

square kilometers in the eastern Caribbean Sea (high confidence; Donner

et al., 2007; Eakin et al., 2010). Although conditions in 2010 were milder

than in 2005, elevated temperatures still occurred in some parts of the

Caribbean (Smith et al., 2013). Increasing temperatures in the Caribbean

have also been implicated in the spread of marine diseases (Harvell et

al., 1999, 2002, 2004) and some introduced species (likely; Firth et al.,

2011). As in other sub-regions, pelagic fish species are sensitive to

changes in sea temperature and modify their distribution and abundance

accordingly (Muhling et al., 2011). Fish and invertebrate assemblages

in the Gulf of Mexico have shifted deeper in response to SST warming

over 1970s–2011 (medium confidence; Pinsky et al., 2013).

Coral ecosystems in the Caribbean Sea are at risk from ocean acidification

(very likely; Albright et al., 2010; Albright and Langdon, 2011), although

impacts have yet to be observed under field conditions. Ocean acidification

may also be altering patterns of fish recruitment to coral reefs, although

direct evidence for how this has affected Caribbean species is lacking

(low confidence; Dixson et al., 2008, 2010; Munday et al., 2009).

30.5.4.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities

Worldwide, 850 million people live within 100 km of tropical coastal

ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves deriving multiple benefits

including food, coastal protection, cultural services, and income from

industries such as fishing and tourism (Burke et al., 2011). Marine

ecosystems within the CBS are sensitive to increasing sea temperatures

(Figure 30-10), although detection and attribution are complicated by the

significant influence and interaction with non-climate change stressors

(water quality, over-exploitation of fisheries, coastal degradation; Box

CC-CR). Warming is likely to have changed the primary productivity of

ocean waters, placing valuable ecosystems and fisheries within the ECS

at risk (low to medium confidence). Other risks include the expansion

of hypoxic conditions and associated dead zones in many parts of the

CBS. Given the consequences for coastal ecosystems and fisheries,

these changes are very likely to increase the vulnerability of coastal

communities throughout the CBS.

Sea temperatures are increasing within many parts of CBS ecosystems

(1950–2009; Table 30-1), and will continue to do so over the next few

decades and century. Sea temperatures are projected to change by

1689

The Ocean Chapter 30

(b) Mass coral bleaching: Degree Heating Month (DHM) ≥1

(a)

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.0 0.0

1.0

0.5

1.0

1.01.0

1.0 1.0

0.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

1900 2000 2100 1900 2000

2100

Proportion of coral grids with DHM of 1 and above

Proportion of coral grids with DHM of 5 and above

1900 2000 2100 1900 2000 2100

1900 2000 21001900 2000 2100

1900 2000 2100

Western

Indian Ocean

Eastern

Indian Ocean

Western

Paciﬁc Ocean

Eastern

Paciﬁc Ocean

Caribbean and

Gulf of Mexico

Coral Triangle and

Southeast Asia

Western

Indian Ocean

Eastern

Indian Ocean

Western

Paciﬁc Ocean

Eastern

Paciﬁc Ocean

Caribbean and

Gulf of Mexico

Coral Triangle and

Southeast Asia

Historic

RCP2.6

RCP4.5

RCP6.0

RCP8.5

Figure 30-10 | Annual maximum proportions of reef pixels with Degree Heating Months (DHM, Donner et al., 2007) for each of the six coral regions (a, Figure 30-4b)—(b) DHM ≥1 (used for projecting the incidence of coral bleaching;

Strong et al., 1997, 2011) and (c) DHM ≥5 (associated with bleaching followed by signiﬁcant mortality; Eakin et al., 2010)—for the period 1870–2009 using the Hadley Centre Interpolated sea surface temperature 1.1 (HadISST1.1) data

set. The black line on each graph is the maximum annual area value for each decade over the period 1870–2009. This value is continued through 2010–2099 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and splits

into the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). DHM were produced for each of the four RCPs using the ensembles of CMIP models. From these global maps of DHM, the annual percentage of grid cells

with DHM ≥1 and DHM ≥5 were calculated for each coral region. These data were then grouped into decades from which the maximum annual proportions were derived. The plotted lines for 2010–2099 are the average of these maximum

proportion values for each RCP. Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies were derived using a 1985–2000 maximum monthly mean climatology derived in the calculations for Figure 30-4. This was done separately for HadISST1.1, the

CMIP5 models, and each of the four RCPs, at each grid cell for every region. DHMs were then derived by adding up the monthly anomalies using a 4-month rolling sum. Figure SM30-3 presents past and future sea temperatures for the six

major coral reef provinces under historic, un-forced, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Western Paciﬁc Eastern Paciﬁc

Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico

Western Indian Ocean Eastern Indian Ocean

Coral Triangle

The location of shallow-water coral reef cells

Caribbean and

Gulf of Mexico

Caribbean and

Gulf of Mexico

Coral Triangle and

Southeast Asia

Coral Triangle and

Southeast Asia

Eastern

Indian Ocean

Eastern

Indian Ocean

Eastern

Paciﬁc Ocean

Eastern

Paciﬁc Ocean

Western

Indian Ocean

Western

Indian Ocean

Western

Paciﬁc Ocean

Western

Paciﬁc Ocean

1690

Chapter 30 The Ocean

.34°C to 0.50°C over the near term (2010–2039) and by 0.23°C to

0.74°C over the long term (2010–2099) under the lowest RCP scenario

(RCP2.6). Under BAU (RCP8.5), CBS sea temperatures are projected to

increase by 0.62°C to 0.85°C over the near term and 2.44°C to 3.32°C

over the long term (Table SM30-4). Given the large-scale impacts (e.g.,

mass coral bleaching and mortality events) that have occurred in response

to much smaller changes in the past over CBS regions (0.14°C to 0.80°C

from 1950–2009; Table 30-1), the projected changes of 2.44°C to

3.32°C over 2010–2099 are very likely to have large-scale and negative

consequences for the structure and function of many CBS ecosystems

(virtually certain), especially given the observed sensitivity of coral reefs

to relatively small increases in temperature over the past 3 decades

(Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Eakin et al., 2010; Lough, 2012).

It is very likely that coral-dominated reef ecosystems within the CBS

(and elsewhere) will continue to decline and will consequently provide

significantly less ecosystem goods and services for coastal communities if

sea temperatures increase by more than 1°C above current temperatures

(Box CC-CR; Figure 30-10). Combining the known sensitivity of coral

reefs within the Caribbean and Coral Triangle sub-regions (Strong et al.,

1997, 2011; Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999), with the exposure to higher

temperatures that are projected under medium (RCP4.5) to high (RCP8.5)

scenarios, reveals that both coral reef-rich regions are virtually certain

to experience levels of thermal stress (DHM ≥ 1) that cause coral

bleaching every 1 to 2 years by the mid- to late part of this century

(robust evidence, high agreement; very high confidence; Figures 30-4b,c,

30-10, 30-12, SM30-3; van Hooidonk et al., 2013). The frequency of mass

mortality events (DHM ≥ 5; Figure 30-10a,b,c) also increases toward a

situation whereevents that occur every 1 to 2 years by the mid- to late

part of this century under low to high climate change scenarios (robust

evidence, high agreement; very high confidence; Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999;

Donner et al., 2005; Frieler et al., 2012). Mass mortality events that

affect coral reefs will result in changes to community composition in

the near term (2010–2039; Berumen and Pratchett, 2006; Adjeroud et

al., 2009) and a continuing downward trend in coral cover in the longer

term (Gardner et al., 2003; Bruno and Selig, 2007; Baker et al., 2008).

It is virtually certain that composition of coral reef fish populations

(Graham et al., 2007; Pratchett et al., 2008, 2011a,b) will change. The

productivity of many fisheries will decrease (limited evidence, medium

agreement) as waters warm, acidify, and stratify, and as crucial habitat,

such as coral reefs, degrade (low confidence). These changes are very

likely to increase the vulnerability of millions of people who live in

coastal communities and depend directly on fisheries and other goods

and services provided by ecosystems such as coral reefs (Hoegh-

Guldberg et al., 2009; McLeod et al., 2010).

30.5.5. Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

The Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems (EBUE) include the California,

Peru/Humboldt, Canary/northwest Africa, and Benguela Currents. They

are highly productive sub-regions with rates of primary productivity that

may exceed 1000 g C m

–2

–1

. Although these provinces comprise less

than 2% of the Ocean area, they contribute nearly 7% of marine primary

production (Figure 30-1b) and more than 20% of the world’s marine

capture fisheries (Pauly and Christensen, 1995). Catches in the EBUE are

ominated by planktivorous sardine, anchovy, and horse/jack mackerel,

and piscivorous benthic fish such as hake. Nutrient input from upwelling

of cooler waters stimulates primary production that is transferred to

mid and upper trophic levels, resulting in substantial fish, seabird, and

marine mammal populations. As a result, the EBUE are considered

“hotspots” of productivity and biodiversity (Block et al., 2011). The high

level of productivity is a result of large-scale atmospheric pressure

gradients and wind systems that advect surface waters offshore, leading

to the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters from depth (Box CC-UP;

Chavez and Messie, 2009; Chavez et al., 2011). Upwelling waters are

typically low in pH and high in CO

, and are likely to continue to enhance

changes in pH and CO

resulting from rising atmospheric CO

(Feely et

al., 2008; Gruber, 2011).

30.5.5.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts

There are extensive studies of the coupled climate-ecosystem dynamics

of individual EBUE (e.g., California Current). Decadal variability poses

challenges to the detection and attribution of changes within the EBUE

to anthropogenic climate change, although there are a number of long-

term studies that have been able to provide insight into the patterns

of change and their causes. Like other ocean sub-regions, EBUE are

projected to warm under climate change, with increased stratification

and intensified winds as westerly winds shift poleward (likely). However,

cooling has also been predicted for some EBUE, resulting from the

intensification of wind-driven upwelling (Bakun, 1990). The California

and Canary Currents have warmed by 0.73°C and 0.53°C (very likely;

p-value ≤ 0.05, 1950–2009; Table 30-1), respectively, while no significant

trend was detected in the sea surface temperatures of the Benguela

(p-value = 0.44) and Humboldt Currents (p-value = 0.21) from 1950 to

2009 (Table 30-1). These trends match shorter-term trends for various

EBUE using Pathfinder version 5 data (Demarcq, 2009). These differences

are likely to be the result of differences in the influence of long-term

variability and the specific responses of coastal wind systems to warming,

although an analysis of wind data over the same period did not pick

up clear trends (low confidence, with respect to long-term wind trends;

Demarcq, 2009; Barton et al., 2013).

How climate change will influence ocean upwelling is central to resolving

ecosystem and fishery responses within each EBUE. There is considerable

debate, however, as to whether or not climate change will drive an

intensification of upwelling (e.g., Bakun et al., 2010; Narayan et al., 2010;

Barton et al., 2013) in all regions. This debate is outlined in Box CC-UP.

EBUE are also areas of naturally low pH and high CO

concentrations

due to upwelling, and consequently may be vulnerable to ocean

acidification and its synergistic impacts (Barton et al., 2012). A full

understanding of the consequences of ocean acidification for marine

organisms and ecosystems is discussed elsewhere (Boxes CC-OA, CC-UP;

Sections 6.2, 6.3.2; Kroeker et al., 2013; WGI AR5 Section 6.4).

30.5.5.1.1. Canary Current

Part of the North Atlantic STG, the Canary Current extends from northern

Morocco southwestward to the North Atlantic Equatorial Current. It is

linked with the Portugal Current (which is sometimes considered part

1691

The Ocean Chapter 30

f the Canary Current) upstream. The coastal upwelling system,

however, is limited to a narrow belt along the Saharan west coast to

the coast of Guinea, with the most intense upwelling occurring centrally,

along the coasts of Mauritania (15°N to 20°N) and Morocco (21°N to

26°N). Total fish catches, comprising mainly coastal pelagic sardines,

sardinellas, anchovies, and mackerel, have fluctuated around 2 million

tonnes yr

–1

since the 1970s (www.seaaroundus.org/lme/27.aspx).

Contrasting with the other EBUE, fishing productivity is modest, probably

partly due to the legacy of uncontrolled fishing in the 1960s (Arístegui

et al., 2009).

Most observations suggest that the Canary Current has warmed since

the early 1980s (Arístegui et al., 2009; Belkin, 2009; Demarcq, 2009;

Barton et al., 2013), with analysis of HadISST1.1 data from 1950 to 2009

indicating warming of 0.53°C from 1950–2009 (p-value ≤ 0.05; Table

30-1). Gómez-Gesteira et al. (2008) suggest a 20 and 45% decrease in

the strength of upwelling in winter and summer, respectively, from 1967

to 2006, consistent with a decrease in wind strength and direction over

the past 60 years. More recently, Barton et al. (2013) show no clear

increasing or decreasing trend in wind strength over the past 60 years,

and a lack of agreement among wind trends and variability from

different wind products (e.g., Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory

(PFEL), International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set

(ICOADS), Wave- and Anemometer-based Sea Surface Wind (WASWind)).

Barton et al. (2013) present no evidence for changes in upwelling

intensity, with the exception of upwelling off northwest Spain, where

winds are becoming slightly less favorable. Alteration of wind direction

and strength influences upwelling and hence nutrient concentrations;

however, nutrient levels can also change in response to other variables

such as the supply of iron-laden dust from the Sahara (Alonso-Pérez et

al., 2011). There is medium evidence and medium agreement that

primary production in the Canary Current has decreased over the past

2 decades (Arístegui et al., 2009; Demarcq, 2009), in contrast to the

nearby upwelling region off northwest Spain where no significant trend

was observed (Bode et al., 2011). Satellite chlorophyll records (Sea-

viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Moderate Resolution

Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)) are relatively short, making it difficult

to distinguish the influence of warming oceans from longer term patterns

of variability (Arístegui et al., 2009; Henson et al., 2010). Changing

temperature has resulted in changes to important fisheries species. For

example, Mauritanian waters have become more suitable as feeding

and spawning areas for some fisheries species (e.g., Sardinella aurita)

as temperatures increased (Zeeberg et al., 2008). Clear attribution of

these changes depends on the linkage between the Azores High and

global temperature, and on longer records for both physical and

biological systems, as pointed out for data sets in general (Arístegui et

al., 2009; Henson et al., 2010).

30.5.5.1.2. Benguela Current

The Benguela Current originates from the eastward-flowing, cold South

Atlantic Current, flows northward along the southwest coast of Africa,

and is bounded north and south by the warm-water Angola and Agulhas

Currents, respectively. Upwelling is strongest and most persistent toward

the center of the system in the Lüderitz-Orange River upwelling cell

(Hutchings et al., 2009). Fish catch reached a peak in the late 1970s of

.8 million tonnes yr

–1

(

www.seaaroundus.org/lme/29/1.aspx), before

declines in the northern Benguela, due to overfishing and inter-decadal

environmental variability, resulted in a reduced catch of around 1 million

tonnes yr

–

(present) (Cury and Shannon, 2004; Heymans et al., 2004;

Hutchings et al., 2009). Offshore commercial fisheries currently comprise

sardine, anchovy, horse mackerel, and hake, while the inshore artisanal

and recreational fisheries comprise a variety of fish species mostly

caught by hook and line.

Most research on the Benguela Current has focused on fisheries and

oceanography, with little emphasis on climate change. As with the other

EBUE, strong interannual and inter-decadal variability in physical

oceanography make the detection and attribution of biophysical trends

to climate change difficult. Nevertheless, the physical conditions of the

Benguela Current are highly sensitive to climate variability over a range

of scales, especially to atmospheric teleconnections that alter local wind

stress (Hutchings et al., 2009; Leduc et al., 2010; Richter et al., 2010;

Rouault et al., 2010). Consequently, there is medium agreement, despite

limited evidence (Demarcq, 2009), that upwelling intensity and associated

variables (e.g., temperature, nutrient, and O

concentrations) from the

Benguela system will change as a result of climate change (Box CC-UP).

The temperature of the surface waters of the Benguela Current did not

increase from 1950 to 2009 (p-value > +0.05; Table 30-1), although

shorter records show an decrease in the south-central Benguela Current

(0.35°C to 0.55°C per decade; Rouault et al., 2010) or an increase for

the whole Benguela region (0.24°C; Belkin, 2009). These differences

between short versus long records indicate the substantial influence of

long-term variability on the Benguela system (Belkin, 2009). Information

on other potential consequences of climate change within the Benguela

system is sparse. SLR is similar to the global mean, although it has not

been measured rigorously within the Benguela (Brundrit, 1995; Veitch,

2007). Although upwelling water in the northern and southern portions

of the Benguela Current exhibits elevated and suppressed partial pressure

of CO

, respectively (Santana-Casiano et al., 2009), the consequences

of changing upwelling intensity remain poorly explored with respect to

ocean acidification. Finally, although periodic hypoxic events in the

Benguela system are largely driven by natural advective processes, these

may be exacerbated by future climate change (Monteiro et al., 2008;

Bakun et al., 2010).

Despite its apparent sensitivity to environmental variability, there is

limited evidence of ecological changes in the Benguela Current EBUE

due to climate change (Poloczanska et al., 2013). For example, pelagic

fish (Roy et al., 2007), benthic crustaceans (Cockcroft et al., 2008), and

seabirds (Crawford et al., 2008) have demonstrated general eastward

range shifts around the Cape of Good Hope. Although these may be

associated with increased upwelling along the South African south

coast, specific studies that attribute these changes to anthropogenic

climate change are lacking. Trawl surveys of demersal fish and cephalopod

species showed consistently predictable “hotspots” of species richness

over a 20- to 30-year study period (the earliest surveys since 1984 off

South Africa) that were associated with greater depths and cooler

bottom waters (Kirkman et al., 2013). However, major changes in the

structure and function of the demersal community have been shown in

some parts of the Benguela Current EBUE in response to environmental

change, for example, due predominantly to fishing pressure in the 1960s

1692

Chapter 30 The Ocean

nd environmental forcing in the early 2000s in the southern Benguela

(Howard et al., 2007); therefore, changes driven by climate change may

eventually affect the persistence of these biodiversity hotspots (Kirkman

et al., 2013).

30.5.5.1.3. California Current

The California Current spans approximately 23° of latitude from central

Baja California, Mexico, to central British Columbia, Canada, linking the

North Pacific Current (West Wind Drift) with the North Equatorial and

Kuroshio Currents to form the North Pacific Gyre. High productivity driven

by advective transport and upwelling (Hickey, 1979; Chelton et al., 1982;

Checkley and Barth, 2009; Auad et al., 2011) supports well-studied

ecosystems and fisheries. Fish catches have been approximately 0.6 million

tonnes yr

–1

since 1950 (www.seaaroundus.org/lme/3.aspx), which makes

it the lowest catch of the four EBUE. The ecosystem supports the foraging

and reproductive activities of 2 to 6 million seabirds from around 100

species (Tyler et al., 1993). Marine mammals are diverse and relatively

abundant, including recovering populations of humpback whales,

among other species (Barlow et al., 2008).

The average temperature of the California Current warmed by 0.73°C

from 1950 to 2009 (p-value ≤ 0.05; Table 30-1) and by 0.14°C to 0.80°C

from 1985 to 2007 (Demarcq, 2009). Like other EBUE, the California

Current is characterized by large-scale interannual and inter-decadal

climate-ecosystem variability (McGowan et al., 1998; Hare and Mantua,

2000; Chavez et al., 2003; Checkley and Barth, 2009). During an El Niño,

coastally trapped Kelvin waves from the tropics deepen the thermocline,

thereby severely reducing upwelling and increasing ocean temperatures

from California to Washington (Peterson and Schwing, 2003; King et al.,

2011). Atmospheric teleconnections to the tropical Pacific alter wind

stress and coastal upwelling. Therefore, the ENSO is intimately linked

with Bakun’s (1990) upwelling intensification hypothesis (Box CC-UP).

Inter-decadal variability in the California Current stems from variability

in the Pacific-North America pattern (Overland et al., 2010), which is

influenced by the PDO (Mantua et al., 1997; Peterson and Schwing,

2003) and the NPGO (Di Lorenzo et al., 2008). The major effects of the

PDO and NPGO appear north of 39°N (Di Lorenzo et al., 2008; Menge

et al., 2009).

There is robust evidence and medium agreement that the California

Current has experienced a decrease in the number of upwelling events

(23 to 40%), but an increase in duration of individual events, resulting in

an increase of the overall magnitude of upwelling events from 1967 to

2010 (high confidence; Demarcq, 2009; Iles et al., 2012). This is consistent

with changes expected under climate change yet remains complicated

by the influence of decadal-scale variability (low confidence; Iles et al.,

2012). Oxygen concentrations have also undergone large and consistent

decreases from 1984 to 2006 throughout the California Current, with

the largest relative decreases occurring below the thermocline (21% at

300 m). The hypoxic boundary layer (<60 µmol kg

–1

) has also shoaled

by up to 90 m in some regions (Bograd et al., 2008). These changes are

consistent with the increased input of organic carbon into deeper layers

from enhanced upwelling and productivity, which stimulates microbial

activity and results in the drawdown of O

(likely, Bakun et al., 2010; but

see also McClatchie et al., 2010; Koslow et al., 2011; WGI AR5 Section

.8.3). These changes are likely to have reduced the available habitat

for key benthic communities as well as fish and other mobile species

(Stramma et al., 2010). Increasing microbial activity will also increase the

partial pressure of CO

, decreasing the pH and carbonate concentration

of seawater. Together with the shoaling of the saturation horizon, these

changes have increased the incidence of low O

and low pH water

flowing onto the continental shelf (high confidence; 40 to 120 m;

Feely et al., 2008), causing problems for industries such as the shellfish

aquaculture industry (Barton et al., 2012).

30.5.5.1.4. Humboldt Current

The Humboldt Current is the largest of the four EBUE, covering an area

larger than the other three combined. It comprises the eastern edge

of the South Pacific Gyre, linking the northern part of the Antarctic

Circumpolar Current with the Pacific South Equatorial Current. Although

the primary productivity per unit area is modest compared to that of

the other EBUE, the total Humboldt Current system has very high levels

of fish production. Current catches are in line with a long-term average

(since the 1960s) of 8 million tonnes yr

–

(www.seaaroundus.org/lme/

13/1.aspx), although decadal-scale variations range from 2.5 to 13

million tonnes yr

–

. While anchovies currently contribute 80% of the

total catch, they alternate with sardines on a multi-decadal scale, with

their dynamics mediated by the approach and retreat of subtropical

waters to and from the coast (Alheit and Bakun, 2010). This variability

does not appear to be changing due to anthropogenic climate change.

Thus, from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, sardines were more

important (Chavez et al., 2003). The other major commercial fish species

are jack mackerel among the pelagic fish and hake among the demersal

fish.

The Humboldt Current EBUE did not show an overall warming trend in

SST over the last 60 years (p-value > 0.05; Table 30-1), which is consistent

with other data sets (1982–2006, HadISST1.1: Belkin, 2009; 1985–2007,

Pathfinder: Demarcq, 2009). Wind speed has increased in the central

portions of the Humboldt Current, although wind has decreased in its

southern and northern sections (Demarcq, 2009). The lack of a consistent

warming signal may be due to the strong influence of adjacent ENSO

activity exerting opposing drivers on upwelling and which, if they

intensify, would decrease temperatures (limited evidence, medium

agreement). Similar to the Canary Current EBUE, however, there was a

significant increase in the temperatures of the warmest month of the

year over the period 1950–2009 (p-value ≤ 0.05; Table 30-1).

Primary production is suppressed during warm El Niño events and

amplified during cooler La Niña phases, these changes then propagate

through to higher trophic levels (Chavez et al., 2003; Tam et al., 2008;

Taylor et al., 2008). However, in addition to trophic changes, there is

also a direct thermal impact on organisms, which varies depending on

the thermal adaptation window for each species (high confidence). A

37-year zooplankton time series for the coast of Peru showed no

persistent trend in abundance and diversity (Ayón et al., 2004), although

observed shifts coincided with the shifts in the regional SST. As for other

EBUE, there is lack of studies that have rigorously attempted to detect

and attribute changes to anthropogenic climate change, although at

least two studies (Mendelssohn and Schwing, 2002; Gutiérrez et al.,

1693

The Ocean Chapter 30

011) provide additional evidence that the northern Humboldt Current

has cooled (due to upwelling intensification) since the 1950s, a trend

matched by increasing primary production. This is not entirely consistent

with the lack of significant change over the period 1950–2009 (p-value

> 0.05; Table 30-1). Nevertheless, these relationships are likely to be

complex in their origin, especially in their sensitivity to the long-term

changes associated with ENSO and PDO, and the fact that areas within

the Humboldt Current EBUE may be showing different behaviors.

30.5.5.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities

EBUE are vulnerable to changes that influence the intensity of currents,

upwelling, and mixing (and hence changes in SST, wind strength and

direction), as well as O

content, carbonate chemistry, nutrient content,

and the supply of organic carbon to deep offshore locations (robust

evidence, high agreement; high confidence). The extent to which any

particular EBUE is vulnerable to these factors depends on location

(Figure 3 from Gruber, 2011) and other factors such as alternative

sources of nutrient input and fishing pressure (Bakun et al., 2010). This

complex interplay between regional and global drivers means that our

understanding of how factors such as upwelling within the EBUE will

respond to further climate change is uncertain (Box CC-UP; Rykaczewski

and Dunne, 2010).

In the GCM ensembles examined (Table SM30-3), modest rates of

warming (0.22°C to 0.93°C) occur within the four EBUEs in the near

term. Over 2010–2099, however, EBUE SSTs warm by 0.07°C to 1.02ºC

under RCP2.6, and 2.52°C to 3.51ºC under RCP8.5 (Table SM30-4).

These high temperatures have the potential to increase stratification of

the water column and substantially reduce overall mixing in some areas.

In contrast, the potential strengthening of coastal wind systems would

intensify upwelling and stimulate primary productivity through the

increased injection of nutrients into the photic zone of the EBUE (Box

CC-UP). Garreaud and Falvey (2009) explored how wind stress along

he South American coast would change by 2100 under SRES B2 and

A2 scenarios. Using an ensemble of 15 GCMs, southerly wind systems

upwelling increased along the subtropical coast of South America,

extending and strengthening conditions for upwelling.

Changes in the intensity of upwelling within the EBUE will drive

fundamental changes to the abundance, distribution, and viability of

resident organisms, although an understanding of their nature and

direction is limited. In some cases, large-scale decreases in primary

productivity and dependent fisheries are projected to occur for EBUE

ecosystems (Blanchard et al., 2012), while other projections question

the strong connection between primary productivity and fisheries

production (Arístegui et al., 2009). Increased upwelling intensity also

has potential disadvantages. Elevated primary productivity may lead

to decreasing trophic transfer efficiency, thus increasing the amount of

organic carbon exported to the seabed, where it is virtually certain to

increase microbial respiration and hence increase low O

stress (Weeks

et al., 2002; Bakun et al., 2010). Increased wind stress may also increase

turbulence, breaking up food concentrations (affecting trophic transfer),

or causing excessive offshore advection, which could remove plankton

from shelf habitats. The central issue for the EBUE is therefore whether

or not upwelling will intensify and, if so, whether the negative

consequences (e.g., reduced O

and elevated CO

) associated with

upwelling intensification will outweigh potential benefits from increased

primary production and fisheries catch.

30.5.6. Subtropical Gyres

Subtropical gyres (STG) dominate the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian

Oceans (Figure 30-1a), and consist of large stable water masses that

circulate clockwise (Northern Hemisphere) and anticlockwise (Southern

Hemisphere) due to the Coriolis Effect. The oligotrophic areas at the

core of the STG represent one of the largest habitats on Earth,

contributing 21.2% of ocean primary productivity and 8.3% of the

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 30.4 | Will climate change increase the number of “dead zones” in the oceans?

Dissolved oxygen is a major determinant of the distribution and abundance of marine organisms. Dead zones are

persistent hypoxic conditions where the water doesn’t have enough dissolved oxygen to support oxygen-dependent

marine species. These areas exist all over the world and are expanding, with impacts on coastal ecosystems and

ﬁsheries (high conﬁdence). Dead zones are caused by several factors, particularly eutrophication where too many

nutrients run off coastal cities and agricultural areas into rivers that carry these materials out to sea. This stimulates

primary production, leading to a greater supply of organic carbon, which can sink into the deeper layers of the

ocean. As microbial activity is stimulated, there is a sharp reduction in dissolved oxygen levels and an increased risk

of dead zones (high conﬁdence). Climate change can inﬂuence the distribution of dead zones by increasing water

temperature and hence microbial activity, as well as reducing mixing (i.e., increasing layering or stratiﬁcation) of

the Ocean, thereby reducing mixing of oxygen-rich surface layers into the deeper parts of the Ocean. In other

areas, increased upwelling can lead to stimulated productivity, which can also lead to more organic carbon entering

the deep ocean, where it is consumed, decreasing oxygen levels (medium conﬁdence). Managing local factors such

as the input of nutrients into coastal regions can play an important role in reducing the rate at which dead zones

are spreading across the world’s oceans (high agreement).

1694

Chapter 30 The Ocean

lobal fish catch (Figure 30-1b; Table SM30-1). A number of small island

nations are found within this region. While many of the observed

changes within these nations have been described in previous chapters

(e.g., Sections 5.3-4, 29.3-5), region-wide issues and consequences are

discussed here due to the strong linkages between ocean and coastal

issues.

30.5.6.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts

The central portions of the STG are oligotrophic (Figure SM30-1).

Temperatures within the STG of the North Pacific (NPAC), South Pacific

(SPAC), Indian Ocean (IOCE), North Atlantic (NATL), and South Atlantic

(SATL) have increased at rates of 0.020°C, 0.024°C, 0.032°C, 0.025°C,

and 0.027°C yr

–1

from 1998 to 2010, respectively (Signorini and McClain,

2012). This is consistent with increases observed from 1950 to 2009

(0.25°C to 0.67ºC; Table 30-1). However, differences among studies

done over differing time periods emphasize the importance of long-

term patterns of variability. Salinity has decreased across the North and

South Pacific STG (Figure 30-6c; WGI AR5 Section 3.3.3.1), consistent

with warmer sea temperatures and an intensification of the hydrological

cycle (Boyer, 2005).

The North and South Pacific STG have expanded since 1993 (high

confidence), with these changes likely being the consequence of a

combination of wind forcing and long-term variability (Parrish et al.,

2000; WGI AR5 Section 3.6.3). Chlorophyll levels, as determined by

remote-sensing of ocean color (Box CC-UP), have decreased in the

NPAC, IOCE, and NATL by 9, 12, and 11%, respectively (p-value ≤ 0.5;

Signorini and McClain, 2012) over and above the inherent seasonal and

interannual variability from 1998 to 2010 (Vantrepotte and Mélin, 2011).

Chlorophyll levels did not change in the remaining two gyres (SPAC and

SATL, and confirmed for SPAC by Lee and McPhaden (2010) and Lee et

al. (2010)). Furthermore, over the period 1998–2007, median cell diameter

of key phytoplankton species exhibited statistically significant linear

declines of about 2% in the North and South Pacific, and 4% in the

North Atlantic Ocean (Polovina and Woodworth, 2012). Changes in

chlorophyll and primary productivity in these sub-regions have been noted

before (McClain et al., 2004; Gregg et al., 2005; Polovina et al., 2008)

and are influenced by seasonal and longer-term sources of variability

(e.g., ENSO, PDO; Section 6.3.4; Figure 6-9). These changes represent a

significant expansion of the world’s most unproductive waters, although

caution must be exercised given the limitations of satellite detection

methods (Box CC-PP) and the shortness of records relative to longer-

term patterns of climate variability. There is high confidence that

changes that reduce the vertical transport of nutrients into the euphotic

zone (e.g., decreased wind speed, increasing surface temperatures, and

stratification) will reduce the rate of primary productivity and hence

fisheries.

30.5.6.1.1. Pacific Ocean Subtropical Gyres

Pacific climate is heavily influenced by the position of the Intertropical

Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone

(SPCZ), which are part of the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation

(WGI AR5 Section 14.3.1). These features are also strongly influenced

y interannual to inter-decadal climate patterns of variability including

ENSO and PDO. The current understanding of how ENSO and PDO will

change as average global temperatures increase is not clear (low

confidence; Collins et al., 2010; WGI AR5 Section 12.4.4.2). The position

of both the ITCZ and SPCZ vary seasonally and with ENSO (Lough et

al., 2011), with a northward migration during the Northern Hemisphere

summer and a southward migration during the Southern Hemisphere

summer. These changes, along with the West Pacific Monsoon, determine

the timing and extent of the wet and dry seasons in SPAC and NPAC

sub-regions (Ganachaud et al., 2011). Tropical cyclones are prominent

in the Pacific (particularly the western Pacific), and CBS sub-regions

between 10° and 30° north and south of the equator, although the

associated storm systems may occasionally reach higher latitudes.

Spatial patterns of cyclones vary with ENSO, spreading out from the

Coral Sea to the Marquesas Islands during El Niño and contracting back

to the Coral Sea, New Caledonia, and Vanuatu during La Niña (Lough

et al., 2011). Historically, there have been almost twice as many land-

falling tropical cyclones in La Niña as opposed to El Niño years off the

east coast of Australia, with a declining trend in the number of severe

tropical cyclones from 0.45 per year in the early 1870s to 0.17 per year

in recent times (Callaghan and Power, 2011).

The Pacific Ocean underwent an abrupt shift to warmer sea temperatures

in the mid-1970s as a result of both natural (e.g., IPO) and climate forcing

(high confidence; Meehl et al., 2009). This change coincided with changes

to total rainfall, rain days, and dry spells across the Pacific, with the

direction of change depending on the location relative to the SPCZ.

Countries such as the Cook Islands, Tonga, Samoa and American Samoa,

and Fiji tend to experience drought conditions as the SPCZ (with cooler

sea temperatures) moves toward the northeast during El Niño (high

confidence). The opposite is true during La Niña conditions. The

consequences of changing rainfall on the countries of the Pacific STG are

discussed in greater detail elsewhere (Sections 5.4, 29.3; Table 29-1).

Although these changes are due to different phases of long-term

variability in the Pacific, they illustrate the ramifications and sensitivity

of the Pacific to changes in climate change.

Elevated sea temperatures within the Pacific Ocean have increased the

frequency of widespread mass coral bleaching and mortality since the

early 1980s (very high confidence; Hoegh-Guldberg and Salvat, 1995;

Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Mumby et al., 2001; Baker et al., 2008; Donner et

al., 2010). There are few, if any, scientific records of mass coral bleaching

and mortality prior to this period (high confidence; Hoegh-Guldberg,

1999). Rates of decline in coral cover on coastal coral reef ecosystems

range between 0.5 and 2.0% per year depending on the location within

the Indo-Pacific region (high confidence; Bruno and Selig, 2007; Hughes

et al., 2011; Sweatman et al., 2011; De’ath et al., 2012). The reasons for

this decline are complex and involve non-climate change-related factors

(e.g., coastal pollution and overfishing) as well as global warming and

possibly acidification. A recent comprehensive analysis of the ecological

consequences of coral bleaching and mortality concluded that “bleaching

episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral reefs in some locations,

and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a

potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the

marine tropics” (high confidence; Baker et al., 2008, p. 435). Increasing

sea levels have also caused changes in seagrass and mangrove systems.

Gilman et al. (2007) found a reduction in mangrove area with SLR, with

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The Ocean Chapter 30

he observed mean landward recession of three mangrove areas over

4 decades being 25, 64, and 72 mm yr

–

, 12 to 37 times faster than the

observed rate of SLR. Significant interactions exist between climate

change and coastal development, where migration shoreward depends

on the extent to which coastlines have been modified or barriers to

successful migration have been established.

Changes in sea temperature also lead to changes in the distribution

of key pelagic fisheries such as skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis),

yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares), big-eye tuna (T. obesus), and South

Pacific albacore tuna (T. alalunga), which make up the majority of key

fisheries in the Pacific Ocean. Changes in distribution and recruitment in

response to changes in sea temperature as result of ENSO demonstrate

the close association of pelagic fish stocks and water temperature. The

shift in habitat for top predators in the northeast Pacific was examined

by Hazen et al. (2012), who used tracking data from 23 marine species

and associated environmental variables to predict changes of up to 35%

in core habitat for these species within the North Pacific. Potential habitats

are predicted to contract for the blue whale, salmon shark, loggerhead

turtle, and blue and mako sharks, while potential habitats for the sooty

shearwater; black -footed albatross; leatherback turtle; white shark;

elephant seal; and albacore, bluefin and yellowfin tuna are predicted to

expand (Hazen et al., 2012). However, expansion of OMZs in the Pacific

STG is predicted to compress habitat (depth) for hypoxia-intolerant

species such as tuna (Stramma et al., 2010, 2012).

Reduction of ocean productivity of the STG (Sarmiento et al., 2004;

Signorini and McClain, 2012) reduces the flow of energy to higher

trophic levels such as those of pelagic fish (Le Borgne et al., 2011). The

distribution and abundance of fisheries stocks such as tuna are also

sensitive to changes in sea temperature, and hence long-term variability

such as ENSO and PDO. The redistribution of tuna in the western central

equatorial region has been related to the position of the oceanic

convergence zones, where the warm pool meets the cooler tongue of

the Pacific. These changes have been reliably reproduced by population

models that use temperature as a driver of the distribution and abundance

of tuna (Lehodey et al., 1997, 2006). Projections of big-eye tuna (T. obesus)

distributions under SRES A2 show an improvement in spawning and

feeding habitats by 2100 in the eastern tropical Pacific and declines in

the western tropical Pacific, leading to an eastern displacement of tuna

stocks (Lehodey et al., 2008, 2010b).

30.5.6.1.2. Indian Ocean Subtropical Gyre

Like the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in global

weather patterns, with teleconnections throughout Africa, Australasia,

Asia, and the Americas (e.g., Clark et al., 2000; Manhique et al., 2011;

Meehl and Arblaster, 2011; Nakamura et al., 2011). Increasing sea level,

temperature, storm distribution and intensity, and changing seawater

chemistry all influence the broad range of physical, chemical, and

biological aspects of the Indian Ocean. Coral reef ecosystems in the

Indian Ocean gyre system were heavily affected by record positive sea

temperature anomalies seen in the Southern Hemisphere between

February to April 1998 (robust evidence, high agreement; high confidence;

Ateweberhan et al., 2011). Coral cover across the Western Indian Ocean

declined by an average of 37.7% after the 1998 heat stress event

(

Ateweberhan et al., 2011). Responses to the anomalously warm

conditions in 1998 varied between sub-regions, with the central Indian

Ocean islands (Maldives, Seychelles, Chagos, and Lakshadweep)

experiencing major decreases in coral cover directly after the 1998 event

(from 40 to 53% coral cover in 1977–1997 to 7% in 1999–2000; high

confidence; Ateweberhan et al., 2011). Coral reefs lining the islands of

southern India and Sri Lanka experienced similar decreases in coral cover

(45%, 1977–1997 to 12%, 1999–2000). Corals in the southwestern

Indian Ocean (Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mayotte, Réunion, and

Rodrigues) showed less impact (44%, 1977–1997 to 40%, 1999–2000).

Recovery from these increases in mortality has been variable, with sites

such as those around the central Indian Ocean islands exhibiting fairly

slow recovery (13% by 2001–2005) while those around southern India

and Sri Lanka are showing much higher rates (achieving a mean coral

cover of 37% by 2001–2005; Ateweberhan et al., 2011). These changes

to the population size of key reef-building species will drive major

changes in the abundance and composition of fish populations in

coastal areas, and affect other ecosystem services that are important

for underpinning tourism and coastal protection (medium confidence;

Box CC-CR).

Fisheries that exploit tuna and other large pelagic species are very

valuable to many small island states within the Indian Ocean. As with

Pacific fisheries, the distribution and abundance of large pelagic fish

in the Indian Ocean is greatly influenced by sea temperature. The

anomalously high sea temperatures of 1997–1998 (leading to a

deepening of the mixed layer in the west and a shoaling in the east)

coincided with anomalously low primary production in the Western

Indian Ocean and a major shift in tuna stocks (high confidence; Menard

et al., 2007; Robinson et al., 2010). Fishing grounds in the Western Indian

Ocean were deserted and fishing fleets underwent a massive shift toward

the eastern basin, which was unprecedented for the tuna fishery (high

confidence). As a result of these changes, many countries throughout

the Indian Ocean lost significant tuna-related revenue (Robinson et al.,

2010). In 2007, tuna fishing revenue was again reduced by strong

surface warming and deepening of the mixed layer, and associated with

a modest reduction in primary productivity in the west. These trends

highlight the overall vulnerability of tuna fishing countries in the Indian

Ocean to climate variability, a situation similar to that in the other major

oceans of the world.

30.5.6.1.3. Atlantic Ocean Subtropical Gyres

SST has increased within the two STG of the Atlantic Ocean over the

last 2 decades (Belkin, 2009; Signorini and McClain, 2012). Over longer

periods of time (1950–2009), trends in average temperature are not

significant for the North Atlantic STG (p-value > 0.05) while they remain

so for the South Atlantic STG (very likely; 0.08°C per decade, p-value ≤

0.05; Table 30-1). In both cases, however, temperatures in the coolest

and warmest months increased significantly (Table 30-1). The difference

between these studies (i.e., over 10 to 30 years vs. 60 years) emphasizes

the importance of long-term patterns of variability in the North Atlantic

region. Variability in SST at a period of about 60 to 80 years is associated

with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO; Trenberth and Shea,

2006). Sea surface temperatures influence hurricane activity (very likely)

with recent record SST associated with record hurricane activity in 2005

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Chapter 30 The Ocean

n the Atlantic (Trenberth and Shea, 2006) and mass coral bleaching

and mortality in the eastern Caribbean (high confidence; Eakin et al.,

2010). In the former case, analysis concluded that 0.1°C of the SST

anomaly was attributable to the state of the AMO while 0.45°C was due

to ocean warming as a result of anthropogenic influences (Trenberth and

Shea, 2006).

These changes have influenced the distribution of key fishery species as

well the ecology of coral reefs in Bermuda (Wilkinson and Hodgson,

1999; Baker et al., 2008) and in the eastern Caribbean (Eakin et al., 2010).

Small island nations such as Bermuda depend on coral reefs for fisheries

and tourism and are vulnerable to further increases in sea temperature

that cause mass coral bleaching and mortality (high confidence; Box

CC-CR; Figure 30-10). As with the other STG, phytoplankton communities

and pelagic fish stocks are sensitive to temperature changes that have

occurred over the past several decades. Observation of these changes

has enabled development of models that have a high degree of accuracy

in projecting the distribution and abundance of these elements within

the Atlantic region in general (Cheung et al., 2011).

30.5.6.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities

SSTs of the vast STGs of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans are

increasing, which is very likely to increase stratification of the water

column. In turn, this is likely to reduce surface concentrations of nutrients

and, consequently, primary productivity (medium confidence; Box CC-PP).

Warming is projected to continue (Table SM30-4), with substantial

increases in the vulnerability and risk associated with systems that have

been observed to change so far (high confidence; Figure 30-12). Under

RCP2.6, the temperatures of the STG are projected to increase by 0.17°C

to 0.56°C in the near term (over 2010–2039) and between –0.03°C to

0.90°C in the long term (over 2010–2099) (Table SM30-4). Under

RCP8.5, however, surface temperatures of the world’s STG are projected

to be 0.45°C to 0.91°C warmer in the near term and 1.90°C to 3.44°C

warmer in the long term (Table SM30-4). These changes in temperature

are very likely to increase water column stability, reduce the depth of the

mixed layer, and influence key parameters such as nutrient availability

and O

concentrations. It is not clear as to how longer-term sources of

variability such as ENSO and PDO will change (WGI AR5 Sections 14.4,

14.7.6) and ultimately influence these trends.

The world’s most oligotrophic ocean sub-regions are likely to continue to

expand over coming decades, with consequences for ecosystem services

such as gas exchange, fisheries, and carbon sequestration. Polovina et

al. (2011) explored this question for the North Pacific using a climate

model that included a coupled ocean biogeochemical component to

investigate potential changes under an SRES A2 scenario (~RCP6.0 to

RCP8.5; see also Figure 1.5 from Rogelj et al., 2012). Model projections

indicated the STG expanding by approximately 30% by 2100, driven

by the northward drift of the mid-latitude westerlies and enhanced

stratification of the water column. The expansion of the STG occurred

at the expense of the equatorial upwelling and other regions within the

North Pacific. In the North Pacific STG, the total primary production is

projected to decrease by 10 to 20% and large fish catch by 19 to 29%

by 2100 under SRES A2 (Howell et al., 2013; Woodworth-Jefcoats et al.,

2013). However, our understanding of how large-scale eddy systems

ill change in a warming world is incomplete, as are the implications

for primary productivity of these large and important systems (Boxes

CC-PP, CC-UP).

Understanding how storm frequency and intensity will change represents

a key question for many countries and territories within the various STG.

Projections of increasing sea temperature are likely to change the

behavior of tropical cyclones. At the same time, the maximum wind

speed and rainfall associated with cyclones is likely to increase, although

future trends in cyclones and severe storms are very likely to vary from

region to region (WGI AR5 Section 14.6). Patterns such as “temporal

clustering” can have a strong influence on the impact of tropical cyclones

on ecosystems such as coral reefs (Mumby et al., 2011), although how

these patterns will change within all STG is uncertain at this point.

However, an intensifying hydrological cycle is expected to increase

precipitation in many areas (high confidence; WGI AR5 Sections 2.5,

14.2), although longer droughts are also expected in other STG (medium

confidence). Changes in the hydrological cycle impact coastal ecosystems,

increasing damage through coastal flooding and physical damage from

storm waves (Mumby et al., 2011). Improving our understanding of how

weather systems associated with features such as the SPCZ (WGI AR5

Section 14.3.1) will vary is critical to climate change adaptation of a large

number of nations associated with the STG. Developing an understanding

of how ocean temperature, climate systems such as the SPCZ and ITCZ,

and climate change and variability (e.g., ENSO, PDO) interact will be

essential in this regard. For example, variability in the latitude of the

SPCZ is projected to increase, possibly leading to more extreme events

in Pacific Island countries (Cai et al., 2012).

The consequences of projected sea temperatures on the frequency of

coral bleaching and mortality within key sub-regions of the STG are

outlined in Box CC-CR and Figures 30-10 and SM30-3. As with other

sub-regions (particularly CBS, STG, and SES) dominated by coral reefs,

mass coral bleaching and mortality becomes an annual risk under all

scenarios, with mass mortality events beginning to occur every 1 to 2

years by 2100 (virtually certain; Box CC-CR; Figures 30-10, SM30-3).

Coral-dominated reef ecosystems (areas with more than 30% coral

cover) are very likely to disappear under these circumstances by the mid

part of this century (van Hooidonk et al., 2013). The loss of substantial

coral communities has implications for the three-dimensional structure

of coral reefs (Box CC-CR) and the role of the latter as habitat for

organisms such as fish (Hoegh-Guldberg, 2011; Hoegh-Guldberg et al.,

2011a; Pratchett et al., 2011a; Bell et al., 2013b).

The consequences of increasing sea temperature can be exacerbated

by increasing ocean acidification, with potential implications for reef

calcification (medium confidence; Kleypas et al., 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg

et al., 2007; Doney et al., 2009), reef metabolism and community

calcification (Dove et al., 2013), and other key ecological processes

(Pörtner et al., 2001, 2007; Munday et al., 2009). Ocean pH within

the STG will continue to decrease as atmospheric CO

increases,

bringing pH within the STG to 7.9 and 7.7 at atmospheric concentrations

of 450 ppm and 800 ppm, respectively (Figure SM30-2a; Box CC-OA).

Aragonite saturation states will decrease to around 1.6 (800 ppm) and

3.3 (450 ppm; Figure SM30-2b). Decreasing carbonate ion concentrations

and saturation states pose serious risks to other marine calcifiers

such as encrusting coralline algae, coccolithophores (phytoplankton),

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The Ocean Chapter 30

nd a range of benthic invertebrates (Doney et al., 2009; Feely et al.,

2009).

Increasing sea temperatures and sea level are also likely to influence

other coastal ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, seagrass meadows) in the

Pacific, although significant gaps and uncertainties exist (Section 29.3.1.2;

Waycott et al., 2007, 2011). Many of the negative consequences for

coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass meadows are likely to have

negative consequences for dependent coastal fisheries (through habitat

destruction) and tourism industries (medium confidence; Bell et al.,

2011a, 2013a; Pratchett et al., 2011a,b).

Populations of key large pelagic fish are projected to move many

hundreds of kilometers east of where they are today in the Pacific

STG (high confidence; Lehodey et al., 2008, 2010a, 2011, 2013), with

implications for income, industry, and food security across multiple

Pacific Island nations (high confidence; Cheung et al., 2010; McIlgorm

et al., 2010; Bell et al., 2011b, 2013a; Section 7.4.2; Tables 29-2, 29-4).

These predictions of species range displacements, contractions, and

expansions in response to anticipated changes in the Ocean (Box CC-MB)

present both a challenge and an opportunity for the development of

large-scale management strategies to preserve these valuable species.

Our understanding of the consequences of reduced O

for pelagic fish

populations is not clear, although there is high agreement on the potential

physiological outcomes (Section 6.3.3). Those species that are intolerant

to hypoxia, such as skipjack and yellowfin tuna (Lehodey et al., 2011),

will have their depth range compressed in the Pacific STG, which will

increase their vulnerability to fisheries and reduce overall fisheries

habitat and productivity (medium confidence; Stramma et al., 2010, 2011).

Despite the importance of these potential changes, our understanding

of the full range of consequences is limited at this point.

30.5.7. Deep Sea (>1000 m)

Assessments of the influence of climate change on the Deep Sea (DS)

are challenging because of difficulty of access and scarcity of long-term,

comprehensive observations (Smith, Jr. et al., 2009). The size of this habitat

is also vast, covering well over 54% of the Earth’s surface and stretching

from the top of the mid-oceanic ridges to the bottom of deep ocean

trenches (Smith, Jr. et al., 2009). The fossil record in marine sediments

reveals that the DS has undergone large changes in response to climate

change in the past (Knoll and Fischer, 2011). The paleo-skeletal record

shows that it is the rate, not just the magnitude, of climate change

(temperature, O

, and CO

) that is critical to marine life in DS. The current

rate of change in key parameters very likely exceeds that of other major

events in Earth history. Two primary time scales are of interest. The first

is the slow rate (century-scale) of ocean circulation and mixing, and

consequently the slow rate at which DS ecosystems experience physical

climate change. The second is the rapid rate at which organic matter

enters the deep ocean from primary productivity generated at the surface

of the Ocean, which represents a critical food supply to DS animals

(Smith, Jr. and Kaufmann, 1999; Smith, Jr. et al., 2009). It can also represent

a potential risk in some circumstances where the flux of organic carbon

into the deep ocean, coupled with increased sea temperatures, can lead

to anoxic areas (dead zones) as metabolism is increased and O

decreased

(Chan et al., 2008; Stramma et al., 2010).

30.5.7.1. Observed Changes and Potential Impacts

The greatest rate of change of temperature is occurring in the upper 700

m of the Ocean (very high confidence; WGI AR5 Section 3.2), although

smaller yet significant changes are occurring at depth. The DS environment

is typically cold (~–0.5°C to 3°C; Smith et al., 2008), although abyssal

temperatures in the SES can be higher (e.g., Mediterranean DS ~12°C;

Danovaro et al., 2010). In the latter case, DS organisms can thrive in these

environments as well, illustrating the variety of temperature conditions

that differing species of abyssal life have adapted to. Individual species,

however, are typically constrained within a narrow thermal and O

demand window of tolerance (Pörtner, 2010) and therefore it is likely

that shifts in the distribution of DS species and regional extinctions will

occur. Warming over multiple decades has been observed below 700 m

(Levitus et al., 2005, 2009), with warming being minimal at mid-range

depths (2000 to 3000 m), and increasing toward the sea floor in some

sub-regions (e.g., Southern Ocean; WGI AR5 Chapter 3). For the deep

Atlantic Ocean, the mean age of deep waters (mean time since last

exposure to the atmosphere) is approximately 250 years; the oldest deep

waters of the Pacific Ocean are >1000 years old. The patterns of ocean

circulation are clearly revealed by the penetration of tracers and the

signal of CO

released from burning fossil fuel penetrating into the abyss

(Sabine et al., 2004). It will take many centuries for full equilibration of

deep ocean waters and their ecosystems with recent planetary warming

and CO

levels (Wunsch and Heimbach, 2008).

Temperature accounts for approximately 86% of the variance in the

export of organic matter to the DS (medium confidence; Laws et al.,

2000). Consequently, upper ocean warming will reduce the export of

organic matter to the DS (medium confidence), potentially changing the

distribution and abundance of DS organisms and associated food webs,

and ecosystem processes (Smith, Jr. and Kaufmann, 1999). Most organic

matter entering the DS is recycled by microbial systems at relatively

shallow depths (Buesseler et al., 2007), and at rates that are temperature

dependent. Upper ocean warming will increase the rate of sub-surface

decomposition of organic matter (high confidence), thus intensifying

the intermediate depth OMZs (Stramma et al., 2008, 2010) and reducing

food supply to the abyssal ocean.

Particulate organic carbon is exported from the surface to deeper layers

of the Ocean (>500 m) with an efficiency of between 20 and 50%

(Buesseler et al., 2007), much of it being recycled by microbes before it

reaches 1000 m (Smith, Jr. et al., 2009). The export of organic carbon is

dependent on surface net primary productivity, which is likely to vary

(Box CC-PP), influencing the supply of food to DS (Laws et al., 2000;

Smith et al., 2008). Warming of intermediate waters will also increase

respiration at mid-water depths, reducing the flux of organic carbon. Our

understanding of other components of DS ecosystems is also relatively

poor. For example, there is limited evidence and limited agreement as

to how ocean warming and acidification are likely to affect ecosystems

such as those associated with hydrothermal vents (Van Dover, 2012).

Oxygen concentrations are decreasing in the DS (Stramma et al., 2008;

Helm et al., 2011a). Although the largest signals occur at intermediate

water depths < 1000 m (Nakanowatari et al., 2007; Whitney et al.,

2007; Falkowski et al., 2011), some waters >1000 m depth are also

experiencing a decline (Jenkins, 2008). The quantity of dissolved O

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Chapter 30 The Ocean

hroughout the Ocean will be reduced with warming due to direct

effects on solubility (high confidence), with these effects being widely

distributed (Shaffer et al., 2009). It is also virtually certain that metabolic

rates of all animals and microbial respiration rates will increase with

temperature (Brown et al., 2004). Thus, increased microbial activity

and reduced O

solubility at higher temperatures will have additive

consequences for the decline of O

(high confidence) even in the

DS. The DS waters are relatively well oxygenated owing to the higher

solubility of O

in colder waters and the low supply rate of organic

matter to great depths. The availability of oxygen to marine animals is

governed by a combination of concentration, temperature, pressure,

and related properties such as diffusivity. Analysis by Hofmann et al.

(2013) reveals that the supply potential of oxygen to marine animals

in cold deep waters is similar to that at much shallower depths (very

high confidence).

Anthropogenic CO

has penetrated to at least 1000 m in all three

ocean basins (particularly the Atlantic; Doney et al., 2009). Further

declines of calcite and aragonite in already under-saturated DS water

will presumably decrease biological carbonate structure formation and

increase dissolution, as has happened many times in Earth’s past (high

confidence; Zeebe and Ridgwell, 2011). Some cold-water corals (reported

down to 3500 m) already exist in waters under-saturated with respect

to aragonite (Lundsten et al., 2009). Although initial investigations

suggested that ocean acidification (reduced by 0.15 and 0.30 pH units)

would result in a reduction in the calcification rate of deep water corals

(30 and 56%, respectively), accumulating evidence shows that ocean

acidification may have far less impact than previously anticipated on

the calcification of some deep water corals (limited evidence, medium

agreement; low confidence) although it may reduce important habitats

given that dead unprotected coral mounds are likely to dissolve in

under-saturated waters (Thresher et al., 2011; Form and Riebesell, 2012;

Maier et al., 2013).

30.5.7.2. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities

Rising atmospheric CO

poses a risk to DS communities through increasing

temperature, decreasing O

and pH, and changing carbonate chemistry

(high confidence; Keeling et al., 2010). Risks associated with the DS have

implications for the Ocean and planet given the high degree of inherent

dependency and connectivity. The resulting changes to the flow of organic

carbon to some parts of the DS (e.g., STG) are very likely to affect DS

ecosystems (medium confidence; Smith et al., 2008). As with the Ocean

generally, there is a need to fill in the substantial gaps that exist in our

knowledge and understanding of the world’s largest habitat and its

responses to rapid anthropogenic climate change.

30.5.8. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change

Impacts with Confidence Levels

The analysis in this chapter and elsewhere in AR5 has identified a wide

range of physical, chemical, and ecological components that have

changed over the last century (Box CC-MB). Figure 30-11 summarizes

a number of examples from the Ocean as a region together with the

degree of confidence in both the detection and attribution steps. For

cean warming and acidification, confidence is very high that changes

are being detected and that they are due to changes to the atmospheric

GHG content. There is considerable confidence in both the detection

(very high confidence) and attribution (high confidence) of mass coral

bleaching and mortality, given the well-developed understanding of

environmental processes and physiological responses driving these events

(Box CC-CR; Section 6.3.1). For other changes, confidence is lower, either

because detection of changes has been difficult, or monitoring programs

are not long established (e.g., field evidence of declining calcification),

or because detection has been possible but models are in conflict (e.g.,

wind-driven upwelling). The detection and attribution of recent changes

is discussed in further detail in Sections 18.3.3-4.

30.6. Sectoral Impacts, Adaptation,

and Mitigation Responses

Human welfare is highly dependent on ecosystem services provided by

the Ocean. Many of these services are provided by coastal and shelf

areas, and are consequently addressed in other chapters (e.g., Sections

5.4.3, 7.3.2.4, 22.3.2.3). Oceans contribute provisioning (e.g., food, raw

materials; see Section 30.6.2.1), regulating (e.g., gas exchange, nutrient

recycling, carbon storage, climate regulation, water flux), supporting

(e.g., habitat, genetic diversity), and cultural (e.g., recreational, religious)

services (MEA, 2005; Tallis et al., 2013). The accumulating evidence

indicating that fundamental ecosystem services within the Ocean are

shifting rapidly should be of major concern, especially with respect to

the ability of regulating and supporting ecosystem services to underpin

current and future human population demands (Rockström et al., 2009;

Ruckelshaus et al., 2013). Discussion here is restricted to environmental,

economic, and social sectors that have direct relevance to the Ocean—

namely natural ecosystems, fisheries and aquaculture, tourism, shipping,

oil and gas, human health, maritime security, and renewable energy.

The influences of climate change on Ocean sectors will be mediated

through simultaneous changes in multiple environmental and ecological

variables (see Figure 30-12), and the extent to which changes can be

adapted to and/or risks mitigated (Table 30-3). Both short- and longer-

term adaptation is necessary to address impacts arising from warming,

even under the lowest stabilization scenarios assessed.

Sectoral approaches dominate resource use and management in the

Ocean (e.g., shipping tends to be treated in isolation from fishing within

an area), yet cumulative and interactive effects of individual stressors

are known to be ubiquitous and substantial (Crain et al., 2008). Climate

change consistently emerges as a dominant stressor in regional- to

global-scale assessments, although land-based pollution, commercial

fishing, invasive species, coastal habitat modification, and commercial

activities such as shipping all rank high in many places around the

world (e.g., Sections 5.3.4, 30.5.3-4; Halpern et al., 2009, 2010). Such

cumulative effects pose challenges to managing for the full suite of

stressors to marine systems, but also present opportunities where

mitigating a few key stressors can potentially improve overall ecosystem

condition (e.g., Halpern et al., 2010; Kelly et al., 2011). The latter has often

been seen as a potential strategy for reducing negative consequences

of climate impacts on marine ecosystems by boosting ecosystem

resilience, thus buying time while the core issue of reducing GHG

emissions is tackled (West et al., 2009).

1699

The Ocean Chapter 30

30.6.1. Natural Ecosystems

Adaptation in natural ecosystems may occur autonomously, such as

tracking shifts in species’ composition and distributions (Poloczanska

et al., 2013), or engineered by human intervention, such as assisted

dispersal (Section 4.4.2.4; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2008). Currently,

adaptation strategies for marine ecosystems include reducing additional

stressors (e.g., maintaining water quality, adapting fisheries management)

and maintaining resilience ecosystems (e.g., Marine Protected Areas),

and are moving toward whole-of-ecosystem management approaches.

Coral reefs, for example, will recover faster from mass coral bleaching

and mortality if healthy populations of herbivorous fish are maintained

(medium confidence; Hughes et al., 2003), indicating that reducing

overfishing will help maintain coral-dominated reef systems while the

international community reduces the emissions of GHGs to stabilize

global temperature and ocean chemistry.

Approaches such as providing a formal valuation of ecological services

from the Ocean have potential to facilitate adaptation by underpinning

more effective governance, regulation, and ocean policy while at the

same time potentially improving management of these often vulnerable

services through the development of market mechanisms and incentives

(Beaudoin and Pendleton, 2012). Supporting, regulating, and cultural

ecosystem services tend to transcend the immediate demands placed

on provisioning services and are difficult to value in formal economic

terms owing to their complexity, problems such as double counting,

and the value of non-market goods and services arising from marine

ecosystems generally (Fu et al., 2011; Beaudoin and Pendleton, 2012).

“Blue Carbon” is defined as the organic carbon sequestered by marine

ecosystems such as phytoplankton, mangrove, seagrass, and salt marsh

ecosystems (Laffoley and Grimsditch, 2009; Nellemann et al., 2009). In

this respect, Blue Carbon will provide opportunities for both adaptation

to, and mitigation of, climate change if key uncertainties in inventories,

methodologies, and policies for measuring, valuing, and implementing

Blue Carbon strategies are resolved (McLeod et al., 2011). Sediment

surface levels in vegetated coastal habitats can rise several meters over

thousands of years, building carbon-rich deposits (Brevik and Homburg,

86 7

2 3

I J

B C

E F

Very low

Low Medium

Degree of conﬁdence in detection

High

Very high

Low Medium

Degree of conﬁdence in attribution

High Very high

. Increased ocean temperature and decreased pH (WGI Sections 3.2,

.8, 10.4; WGII Sections 30.3.1–2, 30.5)

2. Decrease in dissolved oxygen (WGI Sections 3.8, 10.4, 30.3.2)

. Increase in temperature extremes (WGI Sections 30.3.2, WGII

ections 30.3.1, 30.5.3–4)

4. Increased water column stratiﬁcation and reduced ocean mixing

and ventilation (WGI Section 3.8; WGII Section 30.3.1)

5. Decreased Deep Sea dissolved oxygen and pH (Sections 30.3.2,

30.5.7)

. Increased upwelling (Sections 30.5.5, 30.5.2)

. Changes in wind and wave stress (Sections 30.3.1, 30.5.1, 30.5.6)

8. Increase in hypoxic areas (Sections 30.5.3–5)

9. Expansion of low-productivity waters (WGI Section 3.8.4; WGII

Section 30.5.6)

Physical and chemical systems

Biological systems

quatorial Upwelling Systems (EUS)

ubtropical Gyres (STG)

Coral bleaching and mortality (Sections 30.5.3–4, 30.5.6, Box

C-CR)

B. Changes in distribution of tuna stocks (Section 30.5.6)

C. Poleward expansion of distributions of plankton communities

(Section 30.5.1)

D. Redistribution of marine plants and animals to higher latitudes

(Sections 30.4, 30.5.1–6, Box CC-MB)

E. Increased ﬁsheries catch potential (Section 30.5.1, Box CC-MB)

F. Decreased ﬁsheries catch potential (Sections 30.5.3–4, 30.5.6, Box

CC-MB)

G. Changes to net primary productivity (Box CC-PP)

H. Changes to Deep Sea ecosystems (Section 30. 5.7)

I. Changes to reproduction and migration (Sections 30.4, 30.5.1–6)

J. Decreased calciﬁcation (Sections 30.5.3–4, 30.5.6, Box CC-OA)

igh-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems (HLSBS)

astern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUE)

Semi-Enclosed Seas (SES)

Deep Sea (DS)

Coastal Boundary Systems (CBS)

Figure 30-11 | Expert assessment of degree of conﬁdence in detection and attribution of physical and chemical changes (white circles) and ecological changes (dark gray

squares) across sub-regions, as designated in Figure 30-1a, and processes in the Ocean (based on evidence explored throughout Chapter 30 and elsewhere in AR5). Further

explanation of this ﬁgure is given in Sections 18.3.3-4 and 18.6.

<1000 mDepth >1000 m

1700

Chapter 30 The Ocean

High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems

Semi-Enclosed Seas

Coastal Boundary Systems Equatorial Upwelling Systems

Subtropical GyresEastern Boundary Upwelling Systems

(1) Expansion of low-

productivity areas as a

consequence of thermal

stratiﬁcation and changes in

wind stress. (Low)

(2) Northward expansion of

plankton, invertebrate, and

ﬁsh communities with

arming. Increase in ﬁsh

iomass at high latitude

ringes. (High)

(3) Upwelling, hence productivity, changes as

a result of climate variability, particularly wind

stress variability. (Low)

(

5) Declining dissolved

xygen concentrations and

expansion of Oxygen

Minimum Zones (OMZ).

(High)

(6) Decline in dissolved oxygen

through changes in oxygen

solubility (temperature), and

ocean ventilation and circulation.

(Medium)

(7) Expansion of seasonally

hypoxic waters due to thermal

stratiﬁcation and

utrophication. Mass coral

leaching events leading to

egradation of coral reefs and

loss of associated biodiversity.

(High)

(

8) Shoaling of aragonite

aturation horizon reduces

biological calciﬁcation and alters

plankton communities. (High)

(9) Mass coral bleaching and

mortality in response to warming

as well as temperature-driven

decline in growth rates of some

corals leading to degradation of

coral reefs and loss of associated

biodiversity. (Very high)

Examples of projected impacts and vulnerabilities associated with climate change in Ocean regions

(4) Spread of tropical species

originating from Indian and Atlantic

Oceans. Increased frequency of mass

ortality events of benthic plants

nd animals linked to extreme

emperature events. (High)

(A) Acidiﬁcation of seasonally

upwelling waters impacts

shellﬁsh aquaculture.

(Medium)

(B) Increased ﬁsh catches at

high-latitude fringes with

economic disruptions and

jurisdictional tensions as

some ﬁsh stocks shift

distributions. (Medium)

and eutrophication

reduces dissolved

oxygen with impacts on

ﬁsh stocks. (Medium)

(D) Sea level rise

modiﬁes coastlines

and increases ﬂooding,

challenging

aquaculture such as

shrimp farms.

(Medium)

(E) Warming leads to

decline in primary

production and

reductions in ﬁsh catch.

(Low)

(F) Increase in variability of

upwelling in some EBUEs adds

uncertainty to ﬁsheries

management. (Medium)

(G) Degradation of coral reefs and

associated ﬁsh stocks as the extent

and intensity of mass coral

bleaching and mortality increases,

increasing risks to regional food

security. (High)

(H) Temperature-driven shifts

in stocks of large pelagic ﬁsh

create winners and losers

among country and island

economies. (High)

Examples of risks to ﬁsheries from observed and projected impacts

Figure 30-12 | Top: Examples of projected impacts and vulnerabilities associated with climate change in Ocean sub-regions. Bottom: Examples of risks to ﬁsheries from

observed and projected impacts across Ocean sub-regions. Words in parentheses indicate level of conﬁdence. Details of sub-regions are given in Table 30-1a and Section 30.1.1.

1701

The Ocean Chapter 30

004; Lo Iacono et al., 2008). The degradation of coastal habitats not

only liberates much of the carbon associated with vegetation loss, but

can also release and oxidize buried organic carbon through erosion of

cleared coastlines (high confidence; Duarte et al., 2005). Combining

data on global area, land use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon

stocks for marshes, mangroves, and seagrass meadows, Pendleton et

al. (2012) revealed that the CO

emissions arising from destruction of

these three ecosystems was equivalent to 3 to 19% of the emissions

generated by deforestation globally, with economic damages estimated

to be US$6 to US$42 billion annually. Similarly, Luisetti et al. (2013)

estimate the carbon stock of seagrass and salt marshes in Europe,

representing less than 4% of global carbon stocks in coastal vegetation,

was valued at US$180 million, at EU Allowance price of €8/tCO

in June

2012. A reversal of EU Environmental Protection Directives could result

in economic losses of US$1 billion by 2060. Blue Carbon strategies can

also be justified in light of the numerous ecosystem services these

ecosystems provide, such as protection against coastal erosion and

storm damage, and provision of habitats for fisheries species (Section

5.5.7).

30.6.2. Economic Sectors

30.6.2.1. Fisheries and Aquaculture

The Ocean provided 64% of the production supplied by world fisheries

(capture and aquaculture) in 2010, amounting to 148.5 million tonnes

of fish and shellfish (FAO, 2012). This production, valued at US$217.5

billion, supplied, on average, 18.6 kg of protein-rich food per person

to an estimated population of 6.9 billion (FAO, 2012). Marine capture

fisheries supplied 77.4 million tonnes with highest production from the

northwest Pacific (27%), west-central Pacific (15%), northeast Atlantic

(11%), and southeast Pacific (10%) (FAO, 2012). World aquaculture

production (59.9 million tonnes in 2010) is dominated by freshwater

fishes; nevertheless, marine aquaculture supplied 18.1 million tonnes

(30%) (FAO, 2012).

Marine capture fisheries production increased from 16.8 million tonnes

in 1950 to a peak of 86.4 million tonnes in 1996, then declined before

stabilizing around 80 million tonnes (FAO, 2012). The stagnation of marine

capture fisheries production is attributed to full exploitation of around

60% of the world’s marine fisheries and overexploitation of 30%

(estimates for 2009) (FAO, 2012). Major issues for industrial fisheries

include illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing; ineffective

implementation of monitoring, control, and surveillance; and overcapacity

in fishing fleets (World Bank and FAO, 2008; FAO, 2012). Such problems

are being progressively addressed in several developed and developing

countries (Hilborn, 2007; Pitcher et al., 2009; Worm et al., 2009), where

investments have been made in stock assessment, strong management,

and application of the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries

and the FAO Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management.

The significance of marine capture fisheries is illustrated powerfully by

the number of people engaged in marine small-scale fisheries (SSF) in

developing countries. SSF account for around half of the fish harvested

from the Ocean, and provide jobs for more than 47 million people—

about 12.5 million fishers and another 34.5 million people engaged in

ost-harvest activities (Mills et al., 2011). SSF are often characterized by

large numbers of politically weak fishers operating from decentralized

localities, with poor governance and insufficient data to monitor catches

effectively (Kurien and Willmann, 2009; Cochrane et al., 2011; Pomeroy

and Andrew, 2011). For these SSF, management that aims to avoid

further depletion of overfished stocks may be more appropriate in

the short-term than management aimed at maximizing sustainable

production. These aims are achieved through adaptive management by

(1) introduction of harvest controls (e.g., size limits, closed seasons and

areas, gear restrictions, and protection of spawning aggregations) to

avoid irreversible damage to stocks in the face of uncertainty (Cochrane

et al., 2011); (2) flexible modification of these controls through

monitoring (Plagányi et al., 2013); and (3) investing in the social capital

and institutions needed for communities and governments to manage

SSF (Makino et al., 2009; Pomeroy and Andrew, 2011).

Changes to ocean temperature, chemistry, and other factors are generating

new challenges for fisheries resulting in loss of coastal and oceanic

habitat (Hazen et al., 2012; Stramma et al., 2012), the movement of

species (Cheung et al., 2011), the spread and increase of disease and

invading species (Ling, 2008; Raitsos et al., 2010; Chan et al., 2011),

and changes in primary production (Chassot et al., 2010). There is

medium evidence and medium agreement that these changes will

change both the nature of fisheries and their ability to provide food and

protein for hundreds of millions of people (Section 7.2.1.2). The risks to

ecosystems and fisheries vary from region to region (Section 7.3.2.4).

Dynamic bioclimatic envelope models under SRES A1B project potential

increases in fisheries production at high latitudes, and potential

decreases at lower latitudes by the mid-21st century (Cheung et al.,

2010; Section 6.5). Overall, warming temperatures are projected to shift

optimal environments for individual species polewards and redistribute

production; however, changes will be region specific (Cheung et al.,

2010; Merino et al., 2012).

Fisheries, in particular shellfish, are also vulnerable to declining pH

and carbonate ion concentrations. As a result, the global production of

shellfish fisheries is likely to decrease (Cooley and Doney, 2009; Pickering

et al., 2011) with further ocean acidification (medium confidence;

Sections 6.3.2, 6.3.5, 6.4.1.1; Box CC-OA). Impacts may be first observed

in EBUE where upwelled water is already relatively low in O

and under-

saturated with aragonite (Section 30.5.5). Seasonal upwelling of

acidified waters onto the continental shelf in the California Current

region has recently affected oyster hatcheries along the coast of

Washington and Oregon (Barton et al., 2012; Section 30.5.5.1.1). Whether

declining pH and aragonite saturation due to climate change played a

role is unclear; however, future declines will increase the risk of such

events occurring.

Most marine aquaculture species are sensitive to changing ocean

temperature (Section 6.3.1.4; exposed through pens, cages, and racks

placed directly in the sea, utilization of seawater in land-based tanks,

collection of wild spat) and, for molluscs particularly, changes in carbonate

chemistry (Turley and Boot, 2011; Barton et al., 2012; Section 6.3.2.4).

Environmental changes can therefore impact farm profitability, depending

on target species and farm location. For example, a 1°C rise in SST is

projected to shift production of Norwegian salmonids further north but

may increase production overall (Hermansen and Heen, 2012). Industries

1702

Chapter 30 The Ocean

or non-food products, which can be important for regional livelihoods

such as Black Pearl in Polynesia, are also affected by rising SST. Higher

temperatures are known to affect the quality of pearl nacre, and can

increase levels of disease in adult oysters (Pickering et al., 2011; Bell et

al., 2013b). Aquaculture production is also vulnerable to extreme events

such as storms and floods (e.g., Chang et al., 2013). Flooding and

inundation by seawater may be a problem to shore facilities on low-

lying coasts. For example, shrimp farming operations in the tropics will

be challenged by rising sea levels, which will be exacerbated by

mangrove encroachment and a reduced ability for thorough-drying of

ponds between crops (Della Patrona et al., 2011).

The impacts of climate change on marine fish stocks are expected to

affect the economics of fisheries and livelihoods in fishing nations

through changes in the price and value of catches, fishing costs, income

to fishers and fishing companies, national labor markets, and industry

re-organization (Sumaila et al., 2011; Section 6.4.1). A study of the

potential vulnerabilities of national economies to the effects of climate

change on fisheries, in terms of exposure to warming, relative importance

of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity

to adapt, concluded that a number countries including Malawi, Guinea,

Senegal, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, Tanzania, Peru, Colombia,

Venezuela, Mauritania, Morocco, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan,

Yemen, and Ukraine are most vulnerable (Allison et al., 2009).

Aquaculture production is expanding rapidly (Bostock et al., 2010) and

will play an important role in food production and livelihoods as the

human demand for protein grows. This may also add pressure on

capture fisheries (FAO, 2012; Merino et al., 2012). Two-thirds of farmed

food fish production (marine and freshwater) is achieved with the use

of feed derived from wild-harvested, small, pelagic fish and shellfish.

Fluctuations in the availability and price of fishmeal and fish oil for

feeds, as well as their availability, pose challenges for the growth of

sustainable aquaculture production, particularly given uncertainties in

changes in EBUE upwelling dynamics to climate change (Section

30.5.5). Technological advances and changes in management such as

increasing feed efficiencies, using alternatives to fishmeal and fish oil,

and farming of herbivorous finfish, coupled with economic and regulatory

incentives, will reduce the vulnerability of aquaculture to the impacts

of climate change on small, pelagic fish abundance (Naylor et al., 2009;

Merino et al., 2010; FAO, 2012).

The challenges of optimizing the economic and social benefits of both

industrial fisheries and SSF and aquaculture operations, which often

already include strategies to adapt to climatic variability (Salinger et

al., 2013), are now made more complex by climate change (Cochrane

et al., 2009; Brander, 2010, 2013). Nevertheless, adaptation options

include establishment of early warning systems to aid decision

making, diversification of enterprises, and development of adaptable

management systems (Chang et al., 2013). Vulnerability assessments

that link oceanographic, biological, and socioeconomic systems can

be applied to identify practical adaptations to assist enterprises,

communities, and households to reduce the risks from climate change

and capitalize on the opportunities (Pecl et al., 2009; Bell et al., 2013b;

Norman-López et al., 2013). The diversity of these adaptation options,

and the policies needed to support them, are illustrated by the examples

in the following subsections.

30.6.2.1.1. Tropical fisheries based on large pelagic fish

Fisheries for skipjack, yellowfin, big-eye, and albacore tuna provide

substantial economic and social benefits to the people of Small Island

Developing States (SIDS). For example, tuna fishing license fees

contribute substantially (up to 40%) to the government revenue of

several Pacific Island nations (Gillett, 2009; Bell et al., 2013b). Tuna

fishing and processing operations also contribute up to 25% of gross

domestic product in some of these nations and employ more than

12,000 people (Gillett, 2009; Bell et al., 2013b). Considerable economic

benefits are also derived from fisheries for top pelagic predators in the

Indian and Atlantic Oceans (FAO, 2012; Bell et al., 2013a). Increasing

sea temperatures and changing patterns of upwelling are projected to

cause shifts in the distribution and abundance of pelagic top predator

fish stocks (Sections 30.5.2, 30.5.5-6), with potential to create “winners”

and “losers” among island economies as catches of the transboundary

tuna stocks change among and within their exclusive economic zones

(EEZs; Bell et al., 2013a,b).

A number of practical adaptation options and supporting policies have

been identified to minimize the risks and maximize the opportunities

associated with the projected changes in distribution of the abundant

skipjack tuna in the tropical Pacific (Bell et al., 2011b, 2013a; Lehodey

et al., 2011; Table 30-2). These adaptation and policy options include

(1) full implementation of the regional “vessel day scheme,” designed to

distribute the economic benefits from the resource in the face of climatic

variability, and other schemes to control fishing effort in subtropical

areas; (2) strategies for diversifying the supply of fish for canneries in

the west of the region as tuna move progressively east; (3) continued

effective fisheries management of all tuna species; (4) energy efficiency

programs to assist domestic fleets to cope with increasing fuel costs

and the possible need to fish further from port; and (5) the eventual

restructuring of regional fisheries management organizations to help

coordinate management measures across the entire tropical Pacific.

Efforts to ensure provision of operational-level catch and effort data

from all industrial fishing operations will improve models for projecting

redistribution of tuna stocks and quotas under climate change (Nicol

et al., 2013; Salinger et al., 2013). Similar adaptation options and policy

responses are expected to be relevant to the challenges faced by tuna

fisheries in the tropical and subtropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

30.6.2.1.2. Small-scale fisheries

Small-scale fisheries (SSF) account for 56% of catch and 91% of people

working in fisheries in developing countries (Mills et al., 2011). SSF are

fisheries that tend to operate at family or community level, have low

levels of capitalization, and make an important contribution to food

security and livelihoods. They are often dependent on coastal ecosystems,

such as coral reefs, that provide habitats for a wide range of harvested

fish and invertebrate species. Despite their importance to many developing

countries, such ecosystems are under serious pressure from human

activities including deteriorating coastal water quality, sedimentation,

ocean warming, overfishing, and acidification (Sections 7.2.1.2, 30.3,

30.5; Box CC-CR). These pressures are translating into a steady decline

in live coral cover, which is very likely to continue over the coming

decades, even where integrated coastal zone management is in place

1703

The Ocean Chapter 30

(Sections 30.5.4, 30.5.6). For example, coral losses around Pacific Islands

are projected to be as high as 75% by 2050 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al.,

2011a). Even under the most optimistic projections (a 50% loss of

coral by 2050), changes to state of coral reefs (Box CC-CR; Figures 30-10,

30-12) are very likely to reduce the availability of associated fish and

invertebrates that support many of the SSF in the tropics (high confidence).

In the Pacific, the productivity of SSF on coral reefs has been projected to

decrease by at least 20% by 2050 (Pratchett et al., 2011b), which is also

likely to occur in other coral reef areas globally given the similar and

growing stresses in these other regions (Table SM30-1; Section 30.5.4).

Adaptation options and policies for building the resilience of coral reef

fisheries to climate change suggested for the tropical Pacific include (1)

strengthening the management of catchment vegetation to improve

water quality along coastlines; (2) reducing direct damage to coral reefs;

(3) maintaining connectivity of coral reefs with mangrove and seagrass

habitats; (4) sustaining and diversifying the catch of coral reef fish to

maintain their replenishment potential; and (5) transferring fishing

effort from coral reefs to skipjack and yellowfin tuna resources by

installing anchored fish-aggregating devices (FAD) close to shore (Bell

et al., 2011b; 2013a,b; Table 30-2). These adaptation options and

policies represent a “no regrets” strategy in that they provide benefits

for coral reef fisheries and fishers irrespective of climate change and

ocean acidification.

30.6.2.1.3. Northern Hemisphere HLSBS fisheries

The high-latitude fisheries in the Northern Hemisphere span from around

30/35°N to 60°N in the North Pacific and 80°N in the North Atlantic,

covering a wide range of thermal habitats supporting subtropical/

temperate species to boreal/arctic species. The characteristics of these

Adaptation options Supporting policies

Economic

development

•

ull implementation of the vessel day scheme to control ﬁ shing effort by the

Parties to the Nauru Agreement

(W–W)

•

iversifying sources of ﬁ sh for canneries in the region and maintaining trade

agreements, e.g., an economic partnership agreement with the European Union

(

W–W)

• Continued conservation and management measures for all species of tuna to

aintain stocks at healthy levels and make these valuable species more resilient to

climate change (W–W)

•

nergy efﬁ ciency programs to assist ﬂ eets to cope with oil price rises and minimize

emissions and reduce costs of ﬁ shing further aﬁ eld as tuna distributions shift

ast (W–W)

• Pan-Paciﬁ c tuna management through merger of the WCPFC and Inter-American

ropical Tuna Commission to coordinate management measures across the tropical

Paciﬁ c (L–W)

•

trengthen national capacity to administer the vessel day scheme.

• Adjust national tuna management plans and marketing strategies to provide

ﬂ

exible arrangements to buy and sell tuna.

•

nclude implications of climate change in management objectives of the WCPFC.

• Apply national management measures to address climate change effects for

ubregional concentrations of tuna in archipelagic waters beyond the mandate of

WCPFC.

•

equire all industrial tuna vessels to provide operational-level catch and effort

data to improve the models for redistribution of tuna stocks during climate change.

Food security

•

anage catchment vegetation to reduce transfer of sediments and nutrients

to coasts to reduce damage to adjacent coastal coral reefs, mangroves, and

eagrasses that support coastal ﬁ sheries (W–W).

• Foster the care of coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrasses by preventing pollution,

anaging waste, and eliminating direct damage to these coastal ﬁ sh habitats

(W–W).

•

rovide for migration of ﬁ sh habitats by prohibiting construction adjacent to

mangroves and seagrasses and installing culverts beneath roads to help the plants

olonize landward areas as sea level rises (L–W).

• Sustain and diversify catches of demersal coastal ﬁ sh to maintain the

replenishment potential of all stocks (L–W).

• Increase access to tuna caught by industrial ﬂ eets through storing and selling tuna

and by-catch landed at major ports to provide inexpensive ﬁ sh for rapidly growing

urban populations (W–W).

• Install ﬁ sh aggregating devices close to the coast to improve access to ﬁ sh for rural

communities as human populations increase and demersal ﬁ sh decline (W–W).

• Develop coastal ﬁ sheries for small pelagic ﬁ sh species, e.g., mackerel, anchovies,

pilchards, sardines, and scads (W–W?).

• Promote simple post-harvest methods, such as traditional smoking, salting, and

drying, to extend the shelf life of ﬁ sh when abundant catches are landed (W–W).

•

trengthen governance for sustainable use of coastal ﬁ sh habitats by (1) building

national capacity to understand the threats of climate change; (2) empowering

ommunities to manage ﬁ sh habitats; and (3) changing agriculture, forestry, and

mining practices to prevent sedimentation and pollution.

•

inimize barriers to landward migration of coastal habitats during development of

strategies to assist other sectors to respond to climate change.

•

pply “primary ﬁ sheries management” to stocks of coastal ﬁ sh and shellﬁ sh to

maintain their potential for replenishment.

• Allocate the necessary quantities of tuna from total national catches to food

security to increase access to ﬁ sh for both urban and coastal populations.

• Dedicate a proportion of the revenue from ﬁ shing licences to improve access to

tuna for food security.

• Include anchored inshore ﬁ sh aggregating devices as part of national infrastructure

for food security.

Livelihoods

• Relocate pearl farming operations to deeper water and to sites closer to coral

reefs and seagrass /algal areas where water temperatures and aragonite saturation

levels are likely to be more suitable for good growth and survival of pearl oysters

and formation of high-quality pearls (L–W).

• Raise the walls and ﬂ oor of shrimp ponds so that they drain adequately as sea

level rises (L–W).

• Identify which shrimp ponds may need to be rededicated to producing other

commodities (L–W).

• Provide incentives for aquaculture enterprises to assess risks to infrastructure so

that farming operations and facilities can be “climate-proofed” and relocated if

necessary.

• Strengthen environmental impact assessments for coastal aquaculture activities to

include the additional risks posed by climate change.

• Develop partnerships with regional technical agencies to provide support for

development of sustainable aquaculture.

Table 30-2 | Examples of priority adaptation options and supporting policies to assist Paciﬁ c Island countries and territories to minimize the threats of climate change to

the socioeconomic beneﬁ ts derived from pelagic and coastal ﬁ sheries and aquaculture, and to maximize the opportunities. These measures are classiﬁ ed as win–win (W–W)

adaptations, which address other drivers of the sector in the short term and climate change in the long term, or lose–win (L–W) adaptations, where beneﬁ ts do not exceed costs

in the short term but accrue under longer term climate change (modiﬁ ed from Bell et al., 2013b). WCPFC = Western and Central Paciﬁ c Fisheries Commission.

The Parties to the Nauru Agreement are Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu.

1704

Chapter 30 The Ocean

LSBS environments, as well as warming trends, are outlined in Section

30.5.1 and Table 30-1. In part, as a result of 30 years of increase in

temperature (Belkin, 2009; Sherman et al., 2009), there has been an

increase in the size of fish stocks associated with high-latitude fisheries

in the Northern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the Norwegian

spring-spawning herring, which has recovered from near-extinction as a

result of overfishing and a cooler climate during the 1960s (Toresen and

Østvedt, 2000). The major components of both pelagic and demersal

high-latitude fish stocks are boreal species located north of 50°N.

Climate change is projected to increase high-latitude plankton production

and displace zooplankton and fish species poleward. As a combined

result of these future changes, the abundance of fish (particularly boreal

species) may increase in the northernmost part of the high-latitude

region (Cheung et al., 2011), although increases will only be moderate

in some areas.

The changes in distribution and migration of pelagic fish shows

considerable spatial and temporal variability, which can increase tensions

among fishing nations. In this regard, tension over the Atlantic mackerel

fisheries has led to what many consider the first climate change-related

conflict between fishing nations (Cheung et al., 2012; Section 30.6.5),

and which has emphasized the importance of developing international

collaboration and frameworks for decision making (Miller et al., 2013;

Sections 15.4.3.3, 30.6.7). The Atlantic mackerel has over the recent

decades been a shared stock between the EU and Norway. However,

the recent advancement of the Atlantic mackerel into the Icelandic EEZ

during summer has resulted in Icelandic fishers operating outside the

agreement between the EU and Norway. Earlier records of mackerel

from the first half of the 20th and second half of the 19th century show,

however, that mackerel was present in Icelandic waters during the

earlier warm periods (Astthorsson et al., 2012). In the Barents Sea, the

northeast Arctic cod, Gadus morhua, reached record-high abundance

in 2012 and also reached its northernmost-recorded distribution (82°N)

(ICES, 2012). A further northward migration is impossible as this would

be into the Deep Sea Polar Basin, beyond the habitat of shelf species.

A further advancement eastwards to the Siberian shelf is, however,

possible. The northeast Arctic cod stock is shared exclusively by Norway

and Russia, and to date there has been a good agreement between

those two nations on the management of the stock. These examples

highlight the importance of international agreements and cooperation

(Table 30-4).

The HLSBS fisheries constitute a large-scale high-tech industry, with

large investments in highly mobile fishing vessels, equipment, and land-

based industries with capacity for adapting fisheries management

and industries for climate change (Frontiers Economics, Ltd., 2013).

Knowledge of how climate fluctuations and change affect the growth,

recruitment, and distribution of fish stocks is presently not incorporated

into fisheries management strategies (Perry et al., 2010). These strategies

are vital for fisheries that hope to cope with the challenges of a changing

ocean environment, and are centrally important to any attempt to

develop ecosystem-based management and sustainable fisheries under

climate change. The large pelagic stocks, with their climate-dependent

migration pattern, are shared among several nations. Developing

equitable sharing of fish quotas through international treaties (Table

30-4) is a necessary adaptation for a sustainable fishery. Factors presently

taken into account in determining the shares of quotas are the historical

ishery, bilateral exchanges of quotas for various species, and the time

that stocks are in the various EEZs.

30.6.2.2. Tourism

Tourism recreation represents one of the world’s largest industries,

accounting for 9% (>US$6 trillion) of global GDP and employing more

than 255 million people. It is expected to grow by an average of 4%

annually and reach 10% of global GDP within the next 10 years (WTTC,

2012). As with all tourism, that which is associated with the Ocean is

heavily influenced by climate change, global economic and socio-political

conditions, and their interactions (Scott et al., 2012b; Section 10.6.1).

Climate change, through impacts on ecosystems (e.g., coral reef bleaching),

can reduce the appeal of destinations, increase operating costs, and/or

increase uncertainty in a highly sensitive business environment (Scott

et al., 2012b).

Several facets of the influence of climate change on the Ocean directly

impact tourism (Section 10.6). Tourism is susceptible to extreme

events such as violent storms, long periods of drought, and/or extreme

precipitation events (Sections 5.4.3.4, 10.6.1; IPCC, 2012). SLR, through

its influence on coastal erosion and submergence, salinization of water

supplies, and changes to storm surge, increases the vulnerability of

coastal tourism infrastructure, tourist safety, and iconic ecosystems

(high confidence; Sections 5.3.3.2, 5.4.3.4, 10.6; Table SPM.1; IPCC,

2012). For example, approximately 29% of resorts in the Caribbean are

within 1 m of the high tide mark and 60% are at risk of beach erosion

from rapid SLR (Scott et al., 2012a).

Increasing sea temperatures (Section 30.3.1.1) can change attractiveness

of locations and the opportunities for tourism through their influence

on the movement of organisms and the state of ecosystems such as

coral reefs (Section 10.6.2; Box CC-CR; UNWTO and UNEP, 2008). Mass

coral bleaching and mortality (triggered by elevated sea temperatures;

high confidence) can decrease the appeal of destinations for diving-

related tourism, although the level of awareness of tourists of impacts

(e.g., <50% of tourists were concerned about coral bleaching during a

major bleaching year, 1998) and expected economic impacts have been

found to be uncertain (Scott et al., 2012b). Some studies, however, have

noted reduced tourist satisfaction and identified “dead coral” as one

of the reasons for disappointment at the end of the holiday (Westmacott

et al., 2000). Tourists respond to changes in factors such as weather and

opportunity by expressing different preferences. For example, preferred

conditions and hence tourism are projected to shift toward higher

latitudes with climate change, or from summer to cooler seasons

(Amelung et al., 2007; Section 10.6.1).

Options for adaptation by the marine tourism sector include (1)

identifying and responding to inundation risks with current infrastructure,

and planning for projected SLR when building new tourism infrastructure

(Section 5.5; Scott et al., 2012a); (2) promoting shoreline stability and

natural barriers by preserving ecosystems such as mangroves, salt

marshes, and coral reefs (Section 5.5; Scott et al., 2012b); (3) deploying

forecasting and early-warning systems in order to anticipate challenges

to tourism and natural ecosystems (Strong et al., 2011; IPCC, 2012); (4)

preparation of risk management and disaster preparation plans in order

1705

The Ocean Chapter 30

o respond to extreme events; (5) reducing the effect of other stressors

on ecosystems and building resilience in iconic tourism features such

as coral reefs and mangroves; and (6) educating tourists to improve

understanding of the negative consequences of climate change over

those stemming from local stresses (Scott et al., 2012a,b). Adaptation

plans for tourism industries need to address specific operators and

regions. For example, some operators may have costly infrastructure at

risk while others may have few assets but are dependent on the

integrity of natural environments and ecosystems (Turton et al., 2010).

30.6.2.3. Shipping

International shipping accounts for more than 80% of world trade by

volume (UNCTAD, 2009a,b) and approximately 3% of global CO

emissions from fuel combustion although CO

emissions are expected

to increase two- to threefold by 2050 (Heitmann and Khalilian, 2010;

WGIII AR5 Section 8.1). Changes in shipping routes (Borgerson, 2008)

and variation in the transport network due to shifts in grain production

and global markets, as well as new fuel and weather-monitoring

technology, may alter these emission patterns (WGIII AR5 Sections 8.3,

8.5). Extreme weather events, intensified by climate change, may

interrupt ports and transport routes more frequently, damaging

infrastructure and introducing additional dangers to ships, crews, and

the environment (UNCTAD, 2009a,b; Pinnegar et al., 2012; Section

10.4.4). These issues have been assessed by some countries which have

raised concerns over the potential for costly delays and cancellation of

services, and the implications for insurance premiums as storminess and

other factors increase risks (Thornes et al., 2012).

Climate change may benefit maritime transport by reducing Arctic sea ice

and consequently shorten travel distances between key ports (Borgerson,

2008), thus also decreasing total GHG emissions from ships (WGIII AR5

Section 8.5.1). Currently, the low level of reliability of this route limits

its use (Schøyen and Bråthen, 2011), and the potential full operation of

the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route would require a transit

management regime, regulation (e.g., navigation, environmental, safety,

and security issues), and a clear legal framework to address potential

territorial claims that may arise, with a number of countries having

direct interest in the Arctic. Further discussion of issues around melting

Arctic sea ice and the Northern Sea Route are given in Chapter 28

(Sections 28.2.6, 28.3.4).

30.6.2.4. Offshore Energy and Mineral Resource

Extraction and Supply

The marine oil and gas industry face potential impacts from climate

change on its ocean-based activities. More than 100 oil and gas

platforms were destroyed in the Gulf of Mexico by the unusually strong

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. Other consequences for oil

pipelines and production facilities ultimately reduced US refining

capacity by 20% (IPCC, 2012). The increasing demand for oil and gas

has pushed operations to waters 2000 m deep or more, far beyond

continental shelves. The very large-scale moored developments required

are exposed to greater hazards and higher risks, most of which are not

well understood by existing climate/weather projections. Although there

s a strong trend toward seafloor well completions with a complex of

wells, manifolds, and pipes that are not exposed to surface forcing,

these systems face different hazards from instability and scouring of

the unconsolidated sediments by DS currents (Randolph et al., 2010).

The influence of warming oceans on sea floor stability is widely debated

due largely to uncertainties about the effects of methane and methane

hydrates (Sultan et al., 2004; Archer et al., 2009; Geresi et al., 2009).

Declining sea ice is also opening up the Arctic to further oil and gas

extraction. Discussion of potential expansion of oil and mineral production

in the Arctic is made in Chapter 28 (Sections 28.2.5-6, 28.3.4).

The principal threat to oil and gas extraction and infrastructure in

maritime settings is the impact of extreme weather (Kessler et al., 2011),

which is likely to increase given that future storm systems are expected

to have greater energy (Emanuel, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 2006;

Knutson et al., 2010). Events such as Hurricane Katrina have illustrated

challenges which will arise for this industry with projected increases in

storm intensity (Cruz and Krausmann, 2008). In this regard, early

warning systems and integrated planning offer some potential to reduce

the effect of extreme events (IPCC, 2012).

30.6.3. Human Health

Major threats to public health due to climate change include diminished

security of water and food supplies, extreme weather events, and

changes in the distribution and severity of diseases, including those due

to marine biotoxins (Costello et al., 2009; Sections 5.4.3.5, 6.4.2.3, 11.2).

The predominantly negative impacts of disease for human communities

are expected to be more serious in low-income areas such as Southeast

Asia, southern and east Africa, and various sub-regions of South America

(Patz et al., 2005), which also have under-resourced health systems

(Costello et al., 2009). Many of the influences are directly or indirectly

related to basin-scale changes in the Ocean (e.g., temperature, rainfall,

plankton populations, SLR, and ocean circulation; McMichael et al.,

2006). Climate change in the Ocean may influence the distribution of

diseases such as cholera (Section 11.5.2.1), and the distribution and

occurrence of HABs. The frequency of cholera outbreaks induced by

Vibrio cholerae and other enteric pathogens are correlated with sea

surface temperatures, multi-decadal fluctuations of ENSO, and plankton

blooms, which may provide insight into how this disease may change

with projected rates of ocean warming (Colwell, 1996; Pascual et al.,

2000; Rodó et al., 2002; Patz et al., 2005; Myers and Patz, 2009; Baker-

Austin et al., 2012). The incidence of diseases such as ciguatera also

shows links to ENSO, with ciguatera becoming more prominent after

periods of elevated sea temperature. This indicates that ciguatera may

become more frequent in a warmer climate (Llewellyn, 2010), particularly

given the higher prevalence of ciguatera in areas with degraded coral

reefs (low confidence; Pratchett et al., 2011a).

30.6.4. Ocean-Based Mitigation

30.6.4.1. Deep Sea Carbon Sequestration

Carbon dioxide capture and storage into the deep sea and geologic

structures are also discussed in WGIII AR5 Chapter 7 (Sections 7.5.5, 7.8.2,

1706

Chapter 30 The Ocean

.12). The economic impact of deliberate CO

equestration beneath

the sea floor has previously been reviewed (IPCC, 2005). Active CO

sequestration from co-produced CO

into sub-sea geologic formations is

being instigated in the North Sea and in the Santos Basin offshore from

Brazil. These activities will increase as offshore oil and gas production

increasingly exploits fields with high CO

in the source gas and oil.

Significant risks from the injection of high levels of CO

into deep ocean

waters have been identified for DS organisms and ecosystems although

chronic effects have not yet been studied. These risks are similar to those

discussed previously with respect to ocean acidification and could

further exacerbate declining O

levels and changing trophic networks

in deep water areas (Seibel and Walsh, 2001; Section 6.4.2.2).

There are significant issues within the decision frameworks regulating

these activities. Dumping of any waste or other matter in the sea,

including the seabed and its subsoil, is strictly prohibited under the 1996

London Protocol (LP) except for those few materials listed in Annex I.

Annex 1 was amended in 2006 to permit storage of CO

under the

seabed. “Specific Guidelines for Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Streams

for Disposal into Sub-Seabed Geological Formations” were adopted by

the parties to the LP in 2007. The Guidelines take a precautionary

approach to the process, requiring Contracting Parties under whose

jurisdiction or control such activities are conducted to issue a permit

for the disposal subject to stringent conditions being fulfilled (Rayfuse

and Warner, 2012).

30.6.4.2. Offshore Renewable Energy

Renewable energy supply from the Ocean includes ocean energy and

offshore wind turbines. The global technical potential for ocean and

wind energy is not as high as solar energy although considerable

potential still remains. Detailed discussion of the potential of renewable

energy sources are given in WGIII AR5 Chapter 7 (Sections 7.4.2, 7.5.3,

7.8.2). There is an increasing trend in the renewable energy sector to

offshore wind turbines (Section 10.2.2). At present, there is high

uncertainty about how changes in wind intensity and patterns, and

extreme events (from climate change), will impact the offshore wind

energy sector. Given the design and engineering solutions available to

combat climate change impacts (Tables 10-1, 10-7), it is unlikely that this

sector will face insurmountable challenges from climate change.

30.6.5. Maritime Security and Related Operations

Climate change and its influence on the Ocean has become an area of

increasing concern in terms of the maintenance of national security and

the protection of citizens. These concerns have arisen as nation-states

increasingly engage in operations ranging from humanitarian assistance

in climate-related disasters to territorial issues exacerbated by changing

coastlines, human communities, resource access, and new seaways

(Kaye, 2012; Rahman, 2012; Section 12.6). In this regard, increasing sea

levels along gently sloping coastlines can have the seemingly perverse

outcome that the territorial limits to the maritime jurisdiction of the

State might be open to question as the distance from national baselines

to the outer limits of the EEZ increases beyond 200 nm over time

(Schofield and Arsana, 2012).

hanges in coastal resources may also be coupled with decreasing

food security to compound coastal poverty and lead, in some cases, to

increased criminal activities such as piracy; IUU fishing; and human,

arms, and drug trafficking (Kaye, 2012). While the linkages have not

been clearly defined in all cases, it is possible that changes in the Ocean

as result of climate change will increase pressure on resources aimed

at maintaining maritime security and countering criminal activity,

disaster relief operations, and freedom of navigation (Section 12.6.2).

National maritime security capacity and infrastructure may also require

rethinking as new challenges present themselves as a result of climate

change and ocean acidification (Allen and Bergin, 2009; Rahman, 2012;

Sections 12.6.1-2).

Opportunities may also arise from changes to international geography

such as formation of new ice-free seaways through the Arctic, which

may benefit some countries in terms of maintaining maritime security

and access (Section 28.2.6). Conversely, such new features may also lead

to increasing international tensions as States perceive new vulnerabilities

from these changes to geography.

Like commercial shipping (Section 30.6.2.3), naval operations in many

countries result in significant GHG emissions (e.g., the US Navy emits

around 2% of the national GHG emissions; Mabus, 2010). As a result,

there are a number of programs being implemented by navies around

the world to try and reduce their carbon footprint and air pollution such

as improving engine efficiency, reducing fouling of vessels, increasing

the use of biofuels, and using nuclear technology for power generation,

among other initiatives.

30.7. Synthesis and Conclusions

Evidence that human activities are fundamentally changing the Ocean

is virtually certain. Sea temperatures have increased rapidly over the

past 60 years at the same time as pH has declined, consistent with the

expected influence of rising atmospheric concentrations of CO

and

other GHGs (very high confidence). The rapid rate at which these

fundamental physical and chemical parameters of the Ocean are

changing is unprecedented within the last 65 Ma (high confidence) and

possibly 300 Ma (medium confidence). As the heat content of the

Ocean has increased, the Ocean has become more stratified (very likely),

although there is considerable regional variability. In some cases,

changing surface wind has influenced the extent of mixing and upwelling,

although our understanding of where and why these differences occur

regionally is uncertain. The changing structure and function of the

Ocean has led to changes in parameters such as O

, carbonate ion, and

inorganic nutrient concentrations (high confidence). Not surprisingly,

these fundamental changes have resulted in responses by key marine

organisms, ecosystems, and ecological processes, with negative

implications for hundreds of millions of people that depend on the

ecosystem goods and services provided (very likely). Marine organisms

are migrating at rapid rates toward higher latitudes, fisheries are

transforming, and many organisms are shifting their reproductive and

migratory activity in time and in concert with changes in temperature

and other parameters. Ecosystems such as coral reefs are declining

rapidly (high confidence). An extensive discussion of these changes is

provided in previous sections and in other chapters of AR5.

1707

The Ocean Chapter 30

Key risk Adaptation issues & prospects

Climatic

drivers

Risk & potential for

adaptation

Timeframe

Risks to ecosystems and adaptation options

resent

2°C

4°C

Very

low

ery

high

Medium

Present

2°C

4°C

ery

low

Very

igh

edium

Present

2°C

4°C

Very

low

ery

high

edium

Present

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Present

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Present

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Table 30-3 | Key risks to ocean and coastal issues from climate change and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation. Key risks are identiﬁed based on

assessment of the literature and expert judgments made by authors of the various WGII AR5 chapters, with supporting evaluation of evidence and agreement in the referenced

chapter sections. Each key risk is characterized as very low, low, medium, high, or very high. Risk levels are presented for the near-term era of committed climate change (here,

for 2030–2040), in which projected levels of global mean temperature increase do not diverge substantially across emissions scenarios. Risk levels are also presented for the

longer term era of climate options (here, for 2080–2100), for global mean temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C above pre-industrial levels. For each time frame, risk levels are

estimated for the current state of adaptation and for a hypothetical highly adapted state. As the assessment considers potential impacts on different physical, biological, and

human systems, risk levels should not necessarily be used to evaluate relative risk across key risks. Relevant climate variables are indicated by symbols.

Near term

(

2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

ear term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

hanges in ecosystem productivity

associated with the redistribution and

loss of net primary productivity in open

oceans. (medium conﬁdence)

[

6.5.1, 6.3.4, Box CC-PP]

daptation options are limited to the translocation of industrial ﬁshing activities

due to regional decreases (low latitude) versus increases (high latitude) in

productivity, or to the expansion of aquaculture.

istributional shift in ﬁsh and invertebrate

pecies, fall in ﬁsheries catch potential at

low latitudes, e.g., in EUS, CBS, and STG

regions. (high conﬁdence)

[

6.3.1, Box CC-MB]

volutionary adaptation potential of ﬁsh and invertebrate species to warming is limited

as indicated by their changes in distribution to maintain temperatures. Human adaptation

ptions involve the large-scale translocation of industrial ﬁshing activities following the

regional decreases (low latitude) versus (possibly transient) increases (high latitude) in

atch potential as well as deploying ﬂexible management that can react to variability and

change. Further options include improving ﬁsh resilience to thermal stress by reducing

other stressors such as pollution and eutrophication, the expansion of sustainable

aquaculture and development of alternative livelihoods in some regions.

High mortalities and loss of habitat to

larger fauna including commercial species

due to hypoxia expansion and effects.

(high conﬁdence)

[6.3.3, 30.5.3.2, 30.5.4.1-2]

Human adaptation options involve the large-scale translocation of industrial

ﬁshing activities as a consequence of the hypoxia-induced decreases in

biodiversity and ﬁsheries catch of pelagic ﬁsh and squid. Special ﬁsheries may

beneﬁt (Humboldt squid). Reducing the amount of organic carbon running off of

coastlines by controlling nutrients and pollution running off agricultural areas can

reduce microbial activity and consequently limit the extent of the oxygen

drawdown and the formation of coastal dead zones.

Ocean acidiﬁcation: Reduced growth and

survival of commercially valuable shellﬁsh

and other calciﬁers, e.g., reef building

corals, calcareous red algae.

(high conﬁdence)

[5.3.3.5, 6.1.1, 6.3.2, 6.4.1.1, 30.3.2.2,

Box CC-OA]

Evidence for differential resistance and evolutionary adaptation of some species

exists but is likely limited by the CO

concentrations and high temperatures

reached; adaptation options shifting to exploit more resilient species or the

protection of habitats with low natural CO

levels, as well as the reduction of

other stresses, mainly pollution and limiting pressures from tourism and ﬁshing.

Reduced biodiversity, ﬁsheries abundance

and coastal protection by coral reefs due

to heat-induced mass coral bleaching and

mortality increases, exacerbated by ocean

acidiﬁcation, e.g., in CBS, SES, and STG

regions. (high conﬁdence)

[5.4.2.4, 6.4.2, 30.3.1.1, 30.3.2.2, 30.5.2,

30.5.3, 30.5.4, 30.5.6, Box CC-CR]

Evidence of rapid evolution by corals is very limited or nonexistent. Some corals

may migrate to higher latitudes. However, the movement of entire reef systems is

unlikely given estimates that they need to move at the speed of 10 – 20 km yr

–1

to keep up with the pace of climate change. Human adaptation options are

limited to reducing other stresses, mainly enhancing water quality and limiting

pressures from tourism and ﬁshing. This option will delay the impacts of climate

change by a few decades but is likely to disappear as thermal stress increases.

Coastal inundation and habitat loss due

to sea level rise, extreme events, changes

in precipitation, and reduced ecological

resilience, e.g., in CBS and STG

subregions. (medium to high conﬁdence)

[5.5.2, 5.5.4, 30.5.6.1.3, 30.6.2.2, Box

CC-CR]

Options to maintain ecosystem integrity are limited to the reduction of other

stresses, mainly pollution and limiting pressures from tourism, ﬁshing, physical

destruction, and unsustainable aquaculture. Reducing deforestation and increasing

reforestation of river catchments and coastal areas to retain sediments and

nutrients. Increased mangrove, coral reef, and seagrass protection and restoration

to protect numerous ecosystem goods and services such as coastal protection,

tourist value, and ﬁsh habitat.

amaging

yclone

cean

cidiﬁcation

Precipitation

Climate-related drivers of impacts

arming

rend

xtreme

recipitation

xtreme

emperature

evel

Level of risk & potential for adaptation

otential for additional adaptation

o reduce risk

Risk level with

urrent adaptation

isk level with

high adaptation

Hypoxia

Continued next page

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Present

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Marine biodiversity loss with high rate of

climate change. (medium conﬁdence)

[6.3.1-3, 6.4.1.2-3, Table 30.4, Box

CC-MB]

Adaptation options are limited to the reduction of other stresses, mainly to

reducing pollution and to limiting pressures from tourism and ﬁshing.

1708

Chapter 30 The Ocean

30.7.1. Key Risks and Vulnerabilities

The rapid changes in the physical, chemical, and biological state of the

Ocean pose a number of key risks and vulnerabilities for ecosystems,

communities, and nations worldwide. Table 30-3 and Figure 30-12

summarize risks and vulnerabilities from climate change and ocean

acidification, along with adaptation issues and prospects, and a summary

of expert opinion on how these risks will change under further changes

in environmental conditions.

Rising ocean temperatures are changing the distribution, abundance, and

phenology of many marine species and ecosystems, and consequently

represent a key risk to food resources, coastal livelihoods, and industries

such as tourism and fishing, especially for HLSBS, CBS, STG, and EBUE

(Sections 6.3.1, 6.3.4, 7.3.2.4, 30.5; Figure 30-12; Table 30-3; Box CC-MB).

Key risks involve changes in the distribution and abundance of key

fishery species (high confidence; Section 30.6.2.1; Figure 30-12 A,B,G,H)

as well as the spread of disease and invading organisms, each of which

has the potential to impact ecosystems as well as aquaculture and fishing

(Sections 6.3.5, 6.4.1.1, 6.5.3, 7.3.2.4, 7.4.2, 29.5.3-4; Table 30-3).

Adaptation to these changes may be possible in the short-term through

dynamic fisheries policy and management (i.e., relocation of fishing

effort; Table 30-3), as well as monitoring and responding to potential

invading species in coastal settings. The increasing frequency of thermal

extremes (Box CC-HS) will also increase the risk that the thermal

threshold of corals and other organisms is exceeded on a more frequent

Present

°C

4°C

ery

low

Very

igh

edium

Present

°C

4°C

ery

low

ery

high

Medium

Redistribution of catch potential of large

pelagic-highly migratory ﬁsh resources, such as

ropical Paciﬁc tuna ﬁsheries. (high conﬁdence)

[6.3.1, 6.4.3, Table 30.4]

International ﬁsheries agreements and instruments, such as the tuna

commissions, may have limited success in establishing sustainable

ﬁ

sheries yields.

Variability of small pelagic ﬁshes in EBUEs is

becoming more extreme at interannual to

multidecadal scales, making industry and

management decisions more uncertain. (medium

conﬁdence)

[6.3.2, 6.3.3, 30.5.2, 30.5.5, Box CC-UP]

evelopment of new and speciﬁc management tools and models

may have limited success to sustain yields. Reduction in ﬁshing

intensity increases resilience of the ﬁsheries.

Present

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Present

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Decrease in catch and species diversity of ﬁsheries in

tropical coral reefs, exacerbated by interactions with

other human drivers such as eutrophication and

habitat destruction. (high conﬁdence)

[6.4.1, 30.5.3-4, 30.5.6, Box CC-CR]

Restoration of overexploited ﬁsheries and reduction of other

stressors on coral reefs delay ecosystem changes. Human adaptation

includes the usage of alternative livelihoods and food sources (e.g.,

coastal aquaculture).

Current spatial management units, especially the

marine protected areas (MPAs), may fail in the future

due to shifts in species distributions and community

structure.

(high conﬁdence)

[6.3.1, 6.4.2.1, 30.5.1, Box CC-MB]

Continuous revision and shifts of MPA borders, and of MPA goals

and performance.

Present

2°C

4°C

ery

low

Very

igh

edium

resent

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Decreased production of global shellﬁsh ﬁsheries.

(high conﬁdence)

[6.3.2, 6.3.5, 6.4.1.1, 30.5.5, 30.6.2.1, Box CC-OA]

Effective shift to alternative livelihoods, changes in food

consumption patterns, and adjustment of (global) markets.

Global redistribution and decrease of low-latitude

ﬁsheries yields are paralleled by a global trend to

atches having smaller ﬁshes. (medium conﬁdence)

[6.3.1, 6.4.1, 6.5.3, 30.5.4, 30.5.6, 30.6.2]

Increasing coastal poverty at low latitudes as ﬁsheries becomes

smaller – partially compensated by the growth of aquaculture and

arine spatial planning, as well as enhanced industrialized ﬁshing

fforts.

ear term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(

2080 – 2100)

Near term

(

2030 – 2040)

ong term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

ong term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Key risk Adaptation issues & prospects

Climatic

drivers

Risk & potential for

adaptation

Timeframe

Risks to ﬁsheries

Continued next page

Table 30-3 (continued)

Continued next page

1709

The Ocean Chapter 30

basis (especially in CBS, STG, SES, HLSBS, and EUS regions; Sections 6.2,

30.5; Box CC-CR). These changes pose a key risk to vulnerable ecosystems

such as mangroves and coral reefs, with potential to have a series of

serious impacts on fisheries, tourism, and coastal ecosystem services

such as coastal protection (Sections 5.4.2.4, 6.3.2, 6.3.5, 6.4.1.3, 7.2.1.2,

29.3.1.2, 30.5; Table 30-3; Box CC-CR). Genetic adaptation of species

to increasing levels of stress may not occur fast enough given fairly long

generation times of organisms such as reef-building corals and many

other invertebrates and fish (Table 30-3). In this case, risks may be

reduced by addressing stresses not related to climate change (e.g.,

pollution, overfishing), although this strategy could have minimal

impact if further increases in sea temperature occur (high confidence).

Loss of these important coastal ecosystems is associated with emerging

risks associated with the collapse of some coastal fisheries along with

livelihoods, food, and regional security (medium confidence). These

changes are likely to be exacerbated by other key risks such as coastal

inundation and habitat loss due to SLR, as well as intensified precipitation

events (high confidence; Section 5.4; Box CC-CR). Adaptation options

in this case include engineered coastal defenses, reestablishing coastal

vegetation such as mangroves, protecting water supplies from salination,

and developing strategies for coastal communities to withdraw to less

vulnerable locations over time (Section 5.5).

The recent decline in O

concentrations has been ascribed to warming

through the effect on ocean mixing and ventilation, as well as the

solubility of O

and its consumption by marine microbes (Sections 6.1.1.3,

6.3.3, 30.3.2.3, 30.5.7). This represents a key risk to ocean ecosystems

(medium confidence; Figure 30-12 5,6,C). These changes increase the

vulnerability of marine communities, especially those below the

euphotic zone, to hypoxia and ultimately lead to a restriction of suitable

habitat (high confidence; Figure 30-12 5). In the more extreme case,

often exacerbated by the contribution of organic carbon from land-based

sources, “dead zones” may form. Decreasing oxygen, consequently, is

very likely to increase the vulnerability of fisheries and aquaculture

(medium confidence; Figure 30-12 C), and consequently puts livelihoods

Key risk Adaptation issues & prospects

Climatic

drivers

Risk & potential for

adaptation

Timeframe

Risks to humans and infrastructure (continued)

resent

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

igh

Medium

Present

2°C

4°C

Very

low

ery

high

edium

Impacts due to increased frequency of

harmful algal blooms (medium conﬁdence)

[6.4.2.3]

Adaptation options include improved monitoring and early warning system,

reduction of stresses favoring harmful algal blooms, mainly pollution and

eutrophication, as well as the avoidance of contaminated areas and ﬁsheries

products.

Impacts on marine resources threatening

regional security as territorial disputes and

food security challenges increase

(limited evidence, medium agreement)

[IPCC 2012, 30.6.5, 12.4-12.6, 29.3]

Decrease in marine resources, movements of ﬁsh stocks and opening of new

seaways , and impacts of extreme events coupled with increasing populations

will increase the potential for conﬂict in some regions, drive potential

migration of people, and increase humanitarian crises.

Present

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Impacts on shipping and infrastructure for

energy and mineral extraction increases as

storm intensity and wave height increase

in some regions (e.g., high latitudes)

(high conﬁdence)

[IPCC 2012, 30.6.5, 12.4-12.6, 29.3]

Adaptation options are to limit activities to particular times of the year and/or

develop strategies to decrease the vulnerability of structures and operations.

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(

2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Near term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(2080 – 2100)

Table 30-3 (continued)

resent

2°C

4°C

ery

low

Very

high

edium

Reduced livelihoods and increased poverty.

(

medium conﬁdence)

[6.4.1-2, 30.6.2, 30.6.5]

Human adaptation options involve the large-scale translocation of industrial

ﬁ

shing activities following the regional decreases (low latitude) versus increases

(

high latitude) in catch potential and shifts in biodiversity. Artisanal ﬁsheries are

extremely limited in their adaptation options by available ﬁnancial resources

and technical capacities, except for their potential shift to other species of

interest.

ear term

(2030 – 2040)

Long term

(

2080 – 2100)

resent

2°C

4°C

Very

low

ery

high

Medium

Reduced coastal socioeconomic security.

(

high conﬁdence)

[5.5.2, 5.5.4, 30.6.5, 30.7.1]

Human adaptation options involve (1) protection using coastal defences (e.g. seawalls

here appropriate and economic) and soft measures (e.g., mangrove replanting and

enhancing coral growth); (2) accommodation to allow continued occupation of

oastal areas by making changes to human activities and infrastructure; and (3)

anaged retreat as a last viable option. Vary from large-scale engineering works to

smaller scale community projects. Options are available under the more traditional

ZM (coastal zone management) framework but increasingly under DRR (disaster risk

reduction) and CCA (climate change adaptation) frameworks.

igh conﬁdence in existence of adaptation measures, Low conﬁdence in magnitude of risk reduction

Near term

(

2030 – 2040)

ong term

(

2080 – 2100)

CBS = Coastal Boundary Systems; EBUE = Eastern Boundary Upwehlling Ecosystems; EUS = Equatorial Upwelling Systems; HLSBS = High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems;

SES = Semi-Enclosed Seas; STG = Subtropical Gyres.

1710

Chapter 30 The Ocean

t risk, particularly in EBUE (e.g., California and Humboldt Current

ecosystems; Section 30.5.5), SES (e.g., Baltic and Black Seas; Section

30.5.3), and CBS (e.g., Gulf of Mexico, northeast Indian Ocean; Sections

30.3.2.3, 30.5.4). It is very likely that the warming of surface waters has

also increased the stratification of the upper ocean by about 4% between

0 and 200 m from 1971 to 2010 in all oceans north of about 40°S. In

many cases, there is significant adaptation opportunity to reduce

hypoxia locally by reducing the flow of organic carbon, hence microbial

activity, within these coastal systems (Section 30.5.4). Relocating fishing

effort, and modifying procedures associated with industries such as

aquaculture, may offer some opportunity to adapt to these changes

(likely). Declining O

concentrations are likely to have significant impacts

on DS habitats, where organisms are relatively sensitive to environmental

changes of this nature owing to the very constant conditions under

which they have evolved (Section 30.5.7).

Ocean acidification has increased the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems

by affecting key aspects of the physiology and ecology of marine

organisms (particularly in CBS, STG, and SES; Section 6.3.2; Table 30-3;

Box CC-OA). Decreasing pH and carbonate ion concentrations reduce

the ability of marine organisms to produce shells and skeletons, and

may interfere with a range of biological processes such as reproduction,

gas exchange, metabolism, navigation ability, and neural function in a

broad range of marine organisms that show minor to major influences of

ocean acidification on their biology (Sections 6.3.2, 30.3.2.2; Box CC-OA).

Natural variability in ocean pH can interact with ocean acidification to

create damaging periods of extremes (i.e., high CO

, low O

and pH),

which can have a strong effect on coastal activities such as aquaculture

(medium confidence; Section 6.2; Figure 30-12 A; Box CC-UP). There may

be opportunity to adapt aquaculture to increasingly acidic conditions

by monitoring natural variability and restricting water intake to periods

of optimal conditions. Reducing other non-climate change or ocean

acidification associated stresses also represents an opportunity to build

greater ecological resilience against the impacts of changing ocean

carbonate chemistry. Ocean acidification is also an emerging risk for

DS habitats as CO

continues to penetrate the Ocean, although the

impacts and adaptation options are poorly understood and explored.

Ocean acidification has heightened importance for some groups of

organisms and ecosystems (Box CC-OA). In ecosystems that are heavily

dependent on the accumulation of calcium carbonate over time (e.g.,

oral reefs, Halimeda beds), increasing ocean acidification puts at risk

ecosystems services that are critical for hundreds of thousands of

marine species, plus people and industries, particularly within CBS, STG,

and SES (high confidence). Further risks may emerge from the non-

linear interaction of different factors (e.g., increasing ocean temperature

may amplify effects of ocean acidification, and vice versa) and via the

interaction of local stressors with climate change (e.g., interacting

changes may lead to greater ecosystems disturbances than each impact

on its own). There is an urgent need to understand these types of

interactions and impacts, especially given the long time it will take to

return ocean ecosystems to preindustrial pH and carbonate chemistry

(i.e., tens of thousands of years (FAQ 30.1) should CO

emissions continue

at the current rate).

It is very likely that surface warming has increased stratification of

the upper ocean, contributing to the decrease in O

along with the

temperature-related decreases in oxygen solubility (WGI AR5 Section

3.8.3). Changes to wind speed, wave height, and storm intensity influence

the location and rate of mixing within the upper layers of the Ocean

and hence the concentration of inorganic nutrients (e.g., in EBUE, EUS;

Figure 30-12 1,3). These changes to ocean structure increase the risks and

vulnerability of food webs within the Ocean. However, our understanding

of how primary productivity is going to change in a warming and more

acidified ocean is limited, as is our understanding of how upwelling will

respond to changing surface wind as the world continues to warm

(Boxes CC-PP, CC-UP). As already discussed, these types of changes can

have implications for the supply of O

into the Ocean and the upward

transport of inorganic nutrients to the euphotic zone. Although our

understanding is limited, there is significant potential for regional increases

in wind speed to result in greater rates of upwelling and the supply of

inorganic nutrients to the photic zone. Although this may increase

productivity of phytoplankton communities and associated fisheries,

greater rates of upwelling can increase the risk of hypoxic conditions

developing at depth as excess primary production sinks into the Ocean

and stimulates microbial activity at depth (Sections 6.1.1.3, 30.3.2.3,

30.5.5; Table 30-3). Changes in storm intensity may increase the risk of

damage to shipping and industrial infrastructure, which increases the risk

of accidents and delays to the transport of products between countries,

security operations, and the extraction of minerals from coastal and

oceanic areas (Section 30.6.2; IPCC, 2012).

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 30.5 | How can we use non-climate factors to manage

climate change impacts on the oceans?

The Ocean is exposed to a range of stresses that may or may not be related to climate change. Human activities

can result in pollution, eutrophication (too many nutrients), habitat destruction, invasive species, destructive ﬁshing,

and over-exploitation of marine resources. Sometimes, these activities can increase the impacts of climate change,

although they can, in a few circumstances, dampen the effects as well. Understanding how these factors interact

with climate change and ocean acidiﬁcation is important in its own right. However, reducing the impact of these

non-climate factors may reduce the overall rate of change within ocean ecosystems. Building ecological resilience

through ecosystem-based approaches to the management of the marine environment, for example, may pay dividends

in terms of reducing and delaying the effects of climate change (high conﬁdence).

1711

The Ocean Chapter 30

he proliferation of key risks and vulnerabilities to the goods and

services provided by ocean ecosystems as a result of ocean warming and

acidification generate a number of key risks for the citizens of almost

every nation. Risks to food security and livelihoods are expected to

increase over time, aggravating poverty and inequity (Table 30-3). As

these problems increase, regional security is likely to deteriorate as

disputes over resources increase, along with increasing insecurity of

food and nutrition (Sections 12.4-6, 29.3.3, 30.6.5; Table 30-3; IPCC,

2012).

30.7.2. Global Frameworks for Decision Making

Global frameworks for decision making are central to management of

vulnerability and risk at the scale and complexity of the world’s oceans.

General frameworks and conventions for policy development and decision

aking within oceanic and coastal regions are important in terms of

the management of stressors not directly due to ocean warming or

acidification, but that may influence the outcome of these two factors.

Tables 30-3 and 30-4 outline a further set of challenges arising from

multiple interacting stressors, as well as potential risks and vulnerabilities,

ramifications, and adaptation options. In the latter case, examples of

potential global frameworks and initiatives for beginning and managing

these adaptation options are described. These frameworks represent

opportunities for global cooperation and the development of international,

regional, and national policy responses to the challenges posed by the

changing ocean (Kenchington and Warner, 2012; Tsamenyi and Hanich,

2012; Warner and Schofield, 2012).

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was a

major outcome of the third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea

(UNCLOS III). The European Union and 164 countries have joined in the

Continued next page

Primary

driver(s)

Biophysical

change

projected

Key risks and

vulnerabilities

Ramiﬁ cations Adaptation options

Policy frameworks and

initiatives (examples)

Key references

and chapter

sections

hT, hOA

Spatial and temporal

ariation in primary

productivity (medium

conﬁ dence at global

scales; Box CC-PP)

Reduced ﬁ sheries production

mpacts important sources

of income to some countries

while others may see

increased productivity

(e.g., as tuna stocks shift

eastwards in the Paciﬁ c)

(medium conﬁ dence).

Reduced national

ncome, increased

unemployment, plus

increase in poverty.

Potential increase in

disputes over national

ownership of key ﬁ shery

resources (likely)

Increased international cooperation

ver key ﬁ sheries. Improved

understanding of linkages between

ocean productivity, recruitment, and

ﬁ sheries stock levels. Implementation

of the regional “vessel day scheme”

provides social and economic

incentives to ﬁ sheries and ﬁ shers for

adaptation.

UNCLOS, PEMSEA, CTI,

FMO agreements, UNSFSA

Bell et al. (2011,

013a); Tsamenyi

and Hanich

(2012); Sections

6.4.1, 6.5.3,

30.6.2.1, 30.7.2;

Box CC-PP

hT, hOA



Ecosystem regime

shifts (e.g., coral

to algal reefs;

structural shifts

in phytoplankton

communities)

(medium conﬁ dence)



Reduced ﬁ sheries production

of coastal habitats and

ecosystems such as coral

reefs (medium conﬁ dence).

Decreased food and

employment security and

human migration away

from coastal zone (likely)

Strengthen coastal zone management

to reduce contributing stressors (e.g.,

coastal pollution, over-harvesting, and

physical damage to coastal resources).

Promote Blue Carbon

initiatives.

PEMSEA, CTI, PACC,

MARPOL, UNHCR, CBD,

International Organization

for Migration, Global

Environment Facility,

International Labor

Organization

Bell et al. (2013a);

Sections 5.4.3,

6.3.1–2, 12.4,

29.3.1, 29.3.3,

30.5.2–4, 30.5.6,

30.6.1, 30.6.2.1;

Box CC-CR

Tourist appeal of coastal

assets decreases as

ecosystems change to less

“desirable” state, reducing

income to some countries

(low conﬁ dence).

Increased levels of

coastal poverty in some

countries as tourist

income decreases (likely)

As above, strengthen coastal zone

management and reduce additional

stressors on tourist sites; implement

education programs and awareness

among visitors. Diversify tourism

activities.

CBD, PEMSEA, CTI, PACC,

UNHCR, MARPOL

Kenchington and

Warner (2012);

Sections 5.5.4.1,

6.4.1–2, 10.6,

30.6.2.2

Increased risk of some

diseases (e.g., ciguatera,

harmful algal blooms) as

temperatures increase shift

and ecosystems shift away

from coral dominance (low

conﬁ dence).

Increased disease and

mortality; decreases in

coastal food resources

and ﬁ sheries income

(likely)

Increase monitoring and education

surrounding key risks (e.g., ciguatera);

develop alternate ﬁ sheries and income

for periods when disease incidence

increases, and develop or update

health response plans.

National policy strategies

and regional cooperation

needed

Llewellyn (2010);

Sections 6.4.2.3,

10.6, 29.3.3.2,

29.5.3, 30.6.3

Increased poverty and

dislocation of coastal people

(particularly in the tropics)

as coastal resources such as

ﬁ sheries degrade (medium

conﬁ dence)

Increased population

pressure on migration

destinations (e.g., large

regional cities), and

reduced freedom to

navigate in some areas

(as criminal activity

increases) (likely)

Develop alternative industries and

income for affected coastal people.

Strengthen coastal security both

nationally and across regions. Increase

cooperation over handling of criminal

activities.

UNCLOS, PEMSEA, CTI,

International Ship and Port

Facility Security, IMO, Bali

Process, Association of

Southeast Asian Nations

MLA Treaty and bilateral

extradition and MLA

agreements

Kaye (2012);

Rahman

(2012); Sections

12.4–6,29.3.3,

29.6.2, 30.6.5

Table 30-4 | Ramiﬁ cations, adaptation options, and frameworks for decision making for ocean regions. Symbols for primary drivers: IC = ice cover; NU = nutrient concentration;

OA = ocean acidiﬁ cation; SLR = sea level rise; SS = storm strength; T = sea temperature (h = increased; i = decreased; * = uncertain).

Blue Carbon initiatives include conservation and restoration of mangroves, saltmarsh, and seagrass beds as carbon sinks (Section 30.6.1).

Notes: CBD = Convention on Biological Diversity; CTI = Coral Triangle Initiative; IHO = International Hydrographic Organization; IOM = International Organization of Migration;

ISPS = International Ship and Port Facility Security; MARPOL = International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution From Ships; MLA = mutual legal assistance; PACC

= Paciﬁ cAdaptation to Climate Change Project; PEMSEA = Partnerships in Environmental Management for the Seas of East Asia; RFMO = Regional Fisheries Management

Organizations; UNCLOS = United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea; UNHCR = United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees; UNSFSA = United Nations Straddling

Fish Stocks Agreement.

1712

Chapter 30 The Ocean

Primary

driver(s)

Biophysical

change

projected

Key risks and

vulnerabilities

Ramiﬁ cations Adaptation options

Policy frameworks and

initiatives (examples)

Key references

and chapter

sections



Migration of

rganisms and

ecosystems to higher

atitudes (high

onﬁ dence)



Reorganization of

ommercial ﬁ sh stocks and

ecological regime shifts

(

medium to high conﬁ dence)

Social and economic

isruption (very likely)

Increase international cooperation

nd improve understanding of

regime changes; implement early-

etection monitoring of physical and

iological variables and regional

seasonal forecasting; include

related uncertainties into ﬁ sheries

anagement; provide social and

economic incentives for industry.

UNCLOS, CBD, RFMO

greements, UNSFSA

Sections 7.4.2, 6.5,

0.5, 30.6.2.1; Box

CC-MB

ncrease in abundance,

rowing season, and

distributional extent of pests

nd fouling species (medium

conﬁ dence)

ncreased disease risk

o aquaculture and

ﬁ sheries. Income loss

nd increased operating

and maintenance costs

(

very likely)

ncrease environmental monitoring;

romote technological advances to

deal with pest and fouling organisms;

ncrease vigilance and control related

to biosecurity.

MO, ballast water

anagement, Anti- Fouling

Convention

ections 6.4.1.5,

.3.2.4, 29.5.3–4,

30.6.2.1; Box

C-MB

Threats to human health

increase due to expansion

f pathogen distribution

to higher latitudes (low

onﬁ dence)

Increased disease and

mortality in some coastal

ommunities (likely)

Reduce exposure through increased

monitoring and education, adoption,

r update of health response plans to

outbreaks.

UNICEF, World Health

Ogranization, IHOs, and

ational governments

Myers and Patz

(2009); Sections

.4.3, 10.8.2, 11.7,

29.3.3, 30.6.3; Box

C-MB

hT, hNU,

hOA*

Increased incidence

f harmful algal

blooms (low

onﬁ dence)

Increased threats to

cosystems, ﬁ sheries, and

human health (medium

onﬁ dence)

Reduced supply of

arine ﬁ sh and shellﬁ sh

and greater incidence

f disease among some

coastal communities

(

likely)

Provide early-detection monitoring

nd improve predictive models;

provide education and adoption or

pdate of health response plans.

CTI, PEMSEA, World Health

rganization, MARPOL

Llewellyn (2010);,

ections 30.6.3,

11.7, 6.4.2.3

Increased

precipitation as a

result of intensiﬁ ed

hydrological cycle in

some coastal areas

(medium conﬁ dence)

Increased freshwater,

sediment, and nutrient ﬂ ow

into coastal areas; increase

in number and severity of

ﬂ ood events (medium to

high conﬁ dence)

Increasing damage to

coastal reef systems with

ecological regime shifts

in many cases (very

likely)

Improve management of catchment

and coastal processes; expand riparian

vegetation along creeks and rivers;

improve agricultural retention of soils

and nutrients.

CTI, PEMSEA, Secretariat

of the Paciﬁ cRegional

Environment Programme

Sections 3.4,

29.3.1, 30.5.4,

30.6.1

Changing weather

patterns, storm

frequency (medium

conﬁ dence)

Increased risk of damage to

infrastructure such as that

involved in shipping and

oil and gas exploration and

extraction (medium to low

conﬁ dence)

Increased damage and

associated costs (likely)

Adjust infrastructure speciﬁ cations,

develop early-warning systems, and

update emergency response plans to

extreme events.

IMO IPCC (2012);

Sections 10.4.4,

29.3, 30.6.2.3–4

hSLR,

hSS



Increased wave

exposure of coastal

areas and increased

sea level (high

conﬁ dence)



Exposure of coastal

infrastructure and

communities to damage

and inundation, increased

coastal erosion (high

conﬁ dence)

Increased costs to

human towns and

settlements, numbers of

displaced people, and

human migration (very

likely)

Develop integrated coastal

management that considers SLR

in planning and decision making;

increase understanding of the issues

through education.

UNICEF, IHOs, and national

governments

Warner (2012);

Sections 5.5,

12.4.1, 29.5.1,

30.3.1.2, 30.6.5

Inundation of coastal

aquifers reduces water

supplies and decreases

coastal agricultural

productivity (high

conﬁ dence).

Reduced food and

water security leads

to increased coastal

poverty, reduced food

security, and migration

(very likely).

Assist communities in ﬁ nding

alternatives for food and water, or

assist in relocation of populations and

agriculture from vulnerable areas.

UNICEF, IHOs, and national

governments.

Warner (2012);

Sections 5.4.3,

12.4.1, 29.3.2,

30.3.1.2

hSLR

Risk of inundation

and coastal erosion,

especially in low-

lying countries (high

conﬁ dence)

UNCLOS-deﬁ ned limits

of maritime jurisdiction

will contract as national

baselines shift inland.

Potential uncertainty

increases in some areas

with respect to the

international boundaries to

maritime jurisdiction (high

conﬁ dence).

Lack of clarity increases,

as do disputes over

maritime limits and

maritime jurisdiction.

Some nations at risk

of major losses to their

territorial waters (very

likely)

Seek resolution of “shifting national

baselines” issue (retreat and

redeﬁ nition, stabilization, or ﬁ xation

of exclusive economic zones and other

currently deﬁ ned maritime jurisdiction

limits).

UNCLOS IPCC (2012);

Schoﬁ eld and

Arsana (2012);

Warner and

Schoﬁ eld (2012);

Sections 5.5,

30.6.5

hT, iIC



Loss of summer sea

ice (high conﬁ dence)



Access to northern coasts

of Canada, USA, and Russia

increases security concerns

(high conﬁ dence).

Potential for increased

tension on different

interpretations of access

rights and boundaries

(likely to very likely)

Seek early resolution of areas in

dispute currently and in the future.

UNCLOS Chapter 28

New resources become

available as ice retreats,

increasing vulnerability

of international borders

in some cases (medium

conﬁ dence).

Tensions over maritime

claims and ownership of

resources (likely)

Sort out international agreements.

Table 30-4 (continued)

1713

The Ocean Chapter 30

onvention. UNCLOS replaced earlier frameworks that were built around

the “freedom of the seas” concept and that limited territorial rights to

3 nm off a coastline. UNCLOS provides a comprehensive framework for

the legitimate use of the Ocean and its resources, including maritime

zones, navigational rights, protection and preservation of the marine

environment, fishing activities, marine scientific research, and mineral

resource extraction from the seabed beyond national jurisdiction. The

relationship between climate change and UNCLOS is not clear and

depends on interpretation of key elements within the UNFCCC (United

Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change) and Kyoto Protocol

(Boyle, 2012). However, UNCLOS provides mechanisms to help structural

adaptation in response to challenges posed by climate change. In a similar

way, there is a wide range of other policy and legal frameworks that

structure and enable responses to the outcomes of rapid anthropogenic

climate change in the Ocean.

There are many existing international conventions and agreements that

explicitly recognize climate change (Table 30-4). The UN Straddling Fish

Stocks Agreement (UNSFSA) aims at enhancing international cooperation

of fisheries resources, with an explicit understanding under Article 6 that

management needs to take account “existing and predicted oceanic,

environmental and socio-economic conditions” and to undertake

“relevant research, including surveys of abundance, biomass surveys,

hydro-acoustic surveys, research on environmental factors affecting

stock abundance, and oceanographic and ecological studies” (UNSFSA,

Annex 1, Article 3). International conventions such as these will become

increasingly important as changes to the distribution and abundance

of fisheries are modified by climate change and ocean acidification.

Global frameworks for decision making are increasingly important in

the case of the Ocean, most of which falls outside national boundaries

(Oude Elferink, 2012; Warner, 2012). Approximately 64% of the Ocean

(40% of the Earth’s surface) is outside EEZs and continental shelves of

the world’s nations (high seas and seabed beyond national jurisdiction).

With rapidly increasing levels of exploitation, there are increasing calls

for more effective decision frameworks aimed at regulating fishing and

other activities (e.g., bio-prospecting) within these ocean “commons.”

These international frameworks will become increasingly valuable as

nations respond to impacts on fisheries resources that stretch across

national boundaries. One such example is the multilateral cooperation

that was driven by President Yudhoyono of Indonesia in August 2007

and led to the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries, and

Food Security (CTI), which involves region-wide (involving 6.8 million

including 132,800 km of coastline) cooperation between the

governments of Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea,

the Solomon Islands, and Timor Leste on reversing the decline in coastal

ecosystems such as coral reefs (Clifton, 2009; Hoegh-Guldberg et al.,

2009; Veron et al., 2009). Partnerships, such as CTI, have the potential

to provide key frameworks to address issues such as interaction between

the over-exploitation of coastal fishing resources and the recovery of

reefs from mass coral bleaching and mortality, and the implications of

the movement of valuable fishery stocks beyond waters under national

jurisdiction.

An initiative called the Global Partnership for Oceans set out to establish

a global framework with which to share experience, resources, and

expertise, as well as to engage governments, industry, civil, and public

ector interests in both understanding and finding solutions to key

issues such as overfishing, pollution, and habitat destruction (Hoegh-

Guldberg et al., 2013). Similarly, the Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction

(ABNJ, Global Environment Facility) Initiative has been established to

promote the efficient, collaborative, and sustainable management of

fisheries resources and biodiversity conservation across the Ocean.

Global partnerships are also essential for providing support to the many

nations that often do not have the scientific or financial resources to

solve the challenges that lie ahead (Busby, 2009; Mertz et al., 2009). In

this regard, international networks and partnerships are particularly

significant in terms of assisting nations in developing local adaptation

solutions to their ocean resources. By sharing common experiences and

strategies through global networks, nations have the chance to tap into

a vast array of options with respect to responding to the negative

consequences of climate change and ocean acidification on the world’s

ocean and coastal resources.

30.7.3. Emerging Issues, Data Gaps, and Research Needs

Although there has been an increase in the number of studies being

undertaken to understand the physical, chemical, and biological changes

within the Ocean in response to climate change and ocean acidification,

the number of marine studies of ecological impacts and risks still lag

behind terrestrial studies (Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Poloczanska

et al., 2013). Rectifying this gap should be a major international objective

given the importance of the Ocean in terms of understanding and

responding to future changes and consequences of ocean warming and

acidification.

30.7.3.1. Changing Variability and Marine Impacts

Understanding the long-term variability of the Ocean is critically important

in terms of the detection and attribution of changes to climate change

(Sections 30.3, 30.5.8), but also in terms of the interaction between

variability and anthropogenic climate change. Developing instrument

systems that expand the spatial and temporal coverage of the Ocean

and key processes will be critical to documenting and understanding

its behavior under further increases in average global temperature

and changes in the atmospheric concentration of CO

. International

collaborations such as the Argo network of oceanographic floats

illustrate how international cooperation can rapidly improve our

understanding of the physical behavior of the Ocean and will provide

important insight into its long-term subsurface variability (Schofield et

al., 2013).

30.7.3.2. Surface Wind, Storms, and Upwelling

Improving our understanding of the potential behavior of surface wind

in a warming world is centrally important to our understanding of how

upwelling will change in key regions (e.g., EUS, EBUE; Box CC-UP).

Understanding these changes will provide important information for

future fisheries management but will also illuminate the potential risks

of intensified upwelling leading to hypoxia at depth and the potential

1714

Chapter 30 The Ocean

xpansion of “dead zones” (Sections 30.3.2, 30.5.2-4). Understanding

surface wind in a warming climate will also yield important information

on surface mixing as well as how surface wave height might also vary,

improving our understanding of potential interactions in coastal areas

between wind, waves, and SLR (Section 30.3.1). Given the importance

of mixing and upwelling to the supply of inorganic nutrients to the

surface layers of the ocean, understanding these important phenomena

at the ocean-atmosphere interface will provide important insight into

how ocean warming and acidification are likely to impact ecosystems,

food webs, and ultimately important fisheries such as those found along

the west coasts of Africa and the Americas.

30.7.3.3. Declining Oxygen Concentrations

The declining level of O

in the Ocean is an emerging issue of major

importance (Section 30.3.2). Developing a better understanding of the

role and temperature sensitivity of microbial systems in determining O

concentrations will enable a more coherent understanding of the changes

and potential risks to marine ecosystems. Given the importance of

microbial systems to the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics

of the Ocean, it is extremely important that these systems receive

greater focus, especially with regard to their response to ocean warming

and acidification. This is particularly important for the DS (>1000 m),

which is the most extensive habitat on the planet. In this respect,

increasing our understanding of DS habitats and how they may be

changing under the influence of climate change and ocean acidification

is of great importance. Linkages between changes occurring in the surface

layers and those associated with the DS are particularly important in

light of our need to understand how rapidly changes are occurring and

what the implications are for the metabolic activity and O

content of

DS habitats.

30.7.3.4. Ocean Acidification

The rapid and largely unprecedented changes to ocean acidification

represent an emerging issue given the central importance of pH and

the concentration of ions such as carbonate in the biology of marine

organisms (Box CC-OA). Despite the relatively short history of research

on this issue, there are already a large number of laboratory and field

studies that demonstrate a large range of effects across organisms,

processes, and ecosystems. Key gaps (Gattuso et al., 2011) remain in

our understanding of how ocean acidification will interact with other

changes in the Ocean, and whether or not biological responses to ocean

acidification are necessarily linear. The vulnerability of fishery species

(e.g., molluscs) to ocean acidification represents an emerging issue, with

a need for research to understand and develop strategies for fishery

and aquaculture industries to minimize the impacts. Understanding of

how carbonate structures such as coral reefs and Halimeda beds will

respond to a rapidly acidifying ocean represents a key gap and research

need, especially in understanding the rate at which consolidated

carbonate structures and related habitats are likely to erode and dissolve.

Interactions between ocean acidification, upwelling, and decreasing O

represent additional areas of concern and research. There is also a need

to improve our understanding of the socioeconomic ramifications of

ocean acidification (Turley and Boot, 2011; Hilmi et al., 2013).

30.7.3.5. Net Primary Productivity

Oceanic phytoplankton are responsible for approximately 50% of global

net primary productivity. However, our understanding of how oceanic

primary production is likely to change in a warmer and more acidified

ocean is uncertain (Boxes CC-PP, CC-UP). Changes in net primary

productivity will resonate through food webs and ultimately affect

fisheries production. Given the central role that primary producers and

their associated ecological processes play in ocean ecosystem functioning,

the understanding of how net primary productivity is likely to vary at

global and regional levels is improved (Sections 30.5.2, 30.5.5). At the

same time, understanding how plankton communities will vary spatially

and temporarily will be important in any attempt to understand how fish

populations will fare in a warmer and more acidified ocean. The research

challenge is to determine when and where net primary production is

expected to change, coupled with research on adaptation strategies for

coping with the changes to the global distribution of seafood procurement,

management, and food security.

30.7.3.6. Movement of Marine Organisms and Ecosystems

Marine organisms are moving generally toward higher latitudes or

deeper waters consistent with the expectation of a warming ocean. Our

current understanding of which organisms and ecosystems are moving,

ramifications for reorganization of ecosystems and communities, and

the implications for nations is uncertain at best. Given the implications

for fisheries, invasive species, and the spread of disease, it is imperative

that our understanding of the movement of ecosystems is improved.

Documentation of species’ responses and a deeper understanding of

the processes that lead to persistent range shifts, and a focus on

the ecosystem, social, and economic implications of range shifts is an

important research need.

30.7.3.7. Understanding Cumulative and Synergistic Impacts

Understanding cumulative and synergistic impacts is poorly developed

for ocean systems. Much of our understanding has been built on

experimental approaches that are focused on single stressors that

respond gradually without interaction or impacts that accumulate over

time (Table 30-3). Multifactorial experiments exploring the impact of

combined variables (e.g., elevated temperature and acidification at the

same time) will enable more realistic projections of the future to be

established. Equally, developing a better understanding of how biological

and ecological responses change in relation to key environmental

variables should also be a goal of future research. In this regard,

assumptions that responses are likely to be gradual and linear over

time ultimately have little basis, yet are widespread within the scientific

literature.

30.7.3.8. Reorganization of Ecosystems and Food Webs

The pervasive influence of ocean warming and acidification on the

distribution, abundance, and function of organisms and processes has

and will continue to drive the reorganization of ecosystems and food

1715

The Ocean Chapter 30

ebs (virtually certain; Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Poloczanska

et al., 2013; Box CC-MB). One of the inevitable outcomes of differing

tolerances and responses to climate change and ocean acidification is the

development of novel assemblages of organisms in the near future. Such

communities are likely to have no past or contemporary counterparts,

and will consequently require new strategies for managing coastal

areas and fisheries. Changes to a wide array of factors related or not

related to climate change have the potential to drive extremely complex

changes in community structure and, consequently, food web dynamics.

Developing a greater capability for detecting and understanding these

changes will be critical for future management of ocean and coastal

resources.

30.7.3.9. Socio-ecological Resilience

Many communities depend on marine ecosystems for food and income

yet our understanding of the consequences of environmental degradation

is poor. For example, although there is high confidence that coral reefs

will continue to deteriorate at current rates of climate change and ocean

acidification (Gardner et al., 2003; Bruno and Selig, 2007; De’ath et al.,

2012), there is relatively poor understanding of the implications for the

hundreds of millions of people who depend on these important coastal

ecosystems for food and livelihoods. Improving our understanding of

how to reinforce socio-ecological resilience in communities affected by

the deterioration of key coastal and oceanic ecosystems is central to

developing effective adaptation responses to these growing challenges

(Section 30.6, Tables 30-3, 30-4).

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