1613

Small Islands

Coordinating Lead Authors:

Leonard A. Nurse (Barbados), Roger F. McLean (Australia)

Lead Authors:

John Agard (Trinidad and Tobago), Lino Pascal Briguglio (Malta), Virginie Duvat-Magnan

(France), Netatua Pelesikoti (Samoa), Emma Tompkins (UK), Arthur Webb (Fiji)

Contributing Authors:

John Campbell (New Zealand), Dave Chadee (Trinidad and Tobago), Shobha Maharaj

(Trinidad and Tobago), Veronique Morin (Canada), Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (Netherlands),

Rolph Payet (Seychelles), Daniel Scott (Canada)

Review Editors:

Thomas Spencer (UK), Kazuya Yasuhara (Japan)

Volunteer Chapter Scientist:

Veronique Morin (Canada)

This chapter should be cited as:

Nurse

, L.A., R.F. McLean, J. Agard, L.P. Briguglio, V. Duvat-Magnan, N. Pelesikoti, E. Tompkins, and A. Webb, 2014:

Small islands. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects.

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi,

Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White

(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1613-1654.

1614

Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................................................... 1616

29.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 1618

29.2. Major Conclusions from Previous Assessments .................................................................................................... 1618

29.3. Observed Impacts of Climate Change, Including Detection and Attribution ....................................................... 1619

29.3.1. Observed Impacts on Island Coasts and Marine Biophysical Systems ............................................................................................ 1619

29.3.1.1. Sea Level Rise, Inundation, and Shoreline Change .......................................................................................................... 1619

29.3.1.2. Coastal Ecosystem Change on Small Islands: Coral Reefs and Coastal Wetlands ............................................................ 1621

29.3.2. Observed Impacts on Terrestrial Systems: Island Biodiversity and Water Resources ........................................................................ 1622

29.3.3. Observed Impacts on Human Systems in Small Islands .................................................................................................................. 1623

29.3.3.1. Observed Impacts on Island Settlements and Tourism ..................................................................................................... 1623

29.3.3.2. Observed Impacts on Human Health ............................................................................................................................... 1624

29.3.3.3. Observed Impacts of Climate Change on Relocation and Migration ............................................................................... 1625

29.3.3.4. Observed Impacts on Island Economies .......................................................................................................................... 1625

29.3.4. Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts of Climate Change on Small Islands ..................................................................... 1626

29.4. Projected Integrated Climate Change Impacts ..................................................................................................... 1626

29.4.1. Non-formal Scenario-based Projected Impacts ............................................................................................................................... 1626

29.4.2. Projected Impacts for Islands Based on Scenario Projections ......................................................................................................... 1627

29.4.3. Representative Concentration Pathway Projections and Implications for Small Islands .................................................................. 1629

29.5. Inter- and Intra-regional Transboundary Impacts on Small Islands ...................................................................... 1629

29.5.1. Large Ocean Waves from Distant Sources ....................................................................................................................................... 1630

29.5.2. Transcontinental Dust Clouds and Their Impact .............................................................................................................................. 1633

29.5.3. Movement and Impact of Introduced and Invasive Species across Boundaries .............................................................................. 1633

29.5.4. Spread of Aquatic Pathogens within Island Regions ....................................................................................................................... 1633

29.5.5. Transboundary Movements and Human Health .............................................................................................................................. 1634

29.6. Adaptation and Management of Risks ................................................................................................................. 1634

29.6.1. Addressing Current Vulnerabilities on Small Islands ....................................................................................................................... 1635

29.6.2. Practical Experiences of Adaptation on Small Islands ..................................................................................................................... 1636

29.6.2.1. Building Adaptive Capacity with Traditional Knowledge, Technologies, and Skills on Small Islands ................................ 1636

29.6.2.2. Addressing Risks on Small Islands ................................................................................................................................... 1637

29.6.2.3. Working Collectively to Address Climate Impacts on Small Islands ................................................................................. 1638

29.6.2.4. Addressing Long-Term Climate Impacts and Migration on Small Islands ........................................................................ 1639

29.6.3. Barriers and Limits to Adaptation in Small Island Settings ............................................................................................................. 1640

29.6.4. Mainstreaming and Integrating Climate Change into Development Plans and Policies .................................................................. 1640

Table of Contents

Small Islands Chapter 29

1615

29.7. Adaptation and Mitigation Interactions ............................................................................................................... 1641

29.7.1. Assumptions/Uncertainties Associated with Adaptation and Mitigation Responses ....................................................................... 1641

29.7.2. Potential Synergies and Conﬂicts .................................................................................................................................................... 1641

29.8. Facilitating Adaptation and Avoiding Maladaptation ........................................................................................... 1642

29.9. Research and Data Gaps ....................................................................................................................................... 1643

References ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1644

Frequently Asked Questions

29.1: Why is it difﬁcult to detect and attribute changes on small islands to climate change? ................................................................. 1620

29.2: Why is the cost of adaptation to climate change so high in small islands? .................................................................................... 1626

29.3: Is it appropriate to transfer adaptation and mitigation strategies between and within small island countries and regions? ......... 1642

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1616

Executive Summary

Current and future climate-related drivers of risk for small islands during the 21st century include sea level rise (SLR), tropical

and extratropical cyclones, increasing air and sea surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns (high confidence; robust

evidence, high agreement). {WGI AR5 Chapter 14; Table 29-1}

Current impacts associated with these changes confirm findings reported

on small islands from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and previous IPCC assessments. The future risks associated with these drivers

nclude loss of adaptive capacity {29.6.2.1, 29.6.2.3} and ecosystem services critical to lives and livelihoods in small islands. {29.3.1-3}

SLR poses one of the most widely recognized climate change threats to low-lying coastal areas on islands and atolls (high

confidence; robust evidence, high agreement). {29.3.1} It is virtually certain that global mean SLR rates are accelerating. {WGI AR5

13.2.2.1} Projected increases to the year 2100 (RCP4.5: 0.35 m to 0.70 m) {WGI AR5 13.5.1; Table 29-1} superimposed on extreme sea level

events (e.g., swell waves, storm surges, El Niño-Southern Oscillation) present severe sea flood and erosion risks for low-lying coastal areas and

atoll islands (high confidence). Likewise, there is high confidence that wave over-wash of seawater will degrade fresh groundwater resources

{29.3.2} and that sea surface temperature rise will result in increased coral bleaching and reef degradation. {29.3.1.2} Given the dependence of

island communities on coral reef ecosystems for a range of services including coastal protection, subsistence fisheries, and tourism, there is

high confidence that coral reef ecosystem degradation will negatively impact island communities and livelihoods.

Given the inherent physical characteristics of small islands, the AR5 reconfirms the high level of vulnerability of small islands to

multiple stressors, both climate and non-climate (high confidence; robust evidence, high agreement).

However, the distinction

between observed and projected impacts of climate change is often not clear in the literature on small islands (high agreement). {29.3} There is

evidence that this challenge can be partly overcome through improvements in baseline monitoring of island systems and downscaling of climate-

model projections, which would heighten confidence in assessing recent and projected impacts. {WGI AR5 9.6; 29.3-4, 29.9}

Small islands do not have uniform climate change risk profiles (high confidence). Rather, their high diversity in both physical and

human attributes and their response to climate-related drivers means that climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation will be variable

from one island region to another and between countries in the same region. {Figure 29-1; Table 29-3} In the past, this diversity in potential

response has not always been adequately integrated in adaptation planning.

There is increasing recognition of the risks to small islands from climate-related processes originating well beyond the borders

of an individual nation or island.

Such transboundary processes already have a negative impact on small islands (high confidence; robust

evidence, medium agreement). These include air-borne dust from the Sahara and Asia, distant-source ocean swells from mid to high latitudes,

invasive plant and animal species, and the spread of aquatic pathogens. For island communities the risks associated with existing and future

invasive species and human health challenges are projected to increase in a changing climate. {29.5.4}

Adaptation to climate change generates larger benefit to small islands when delivered in conjunction with other development

activities, such as disaster risk reduction and community-based approaches to development (medium confidence). {29.6.4}

Addressing the critical social, economic, and environmental issues of the day, raising awareness, and communicating future risks to local

communities {29.6.3} will likely increase human and environmental resilience to the longer term impacts of climate change. {29.6.1, 29.6.2.3;

Figure 29-5}

Adaptation and mitigation on small islands are not always trade-offs, but can be regarded as complementary components in the

response to climate change (medium confidence).

Examples of adaptation-mitigation interlinkages in small islands include energy supply

and use, tourism infrastructure and activities, and functions and services associated with coastal wetlands. The alignment of these sectors for

potential emission reductions, together with adaptation, offer co-benefits and opportunities in some small islands. {29.7.2, 29.8} Lessons

learned from adaptation and mitigation experiences in one island may offer some guidance to other small island states, though there is low

confidence in the success of wholesale transfer of adaptation and mitigation options when the local lenses through which they are viewed

differ from one island state to the next, given the diverse cultural, socioeconomic, ecological, and political values. {29.6.2, 29.8}

Small Islands Chapter 29

1617

The ability of small islands to undertake adaptation and mitigation programs, and their effectiveness, can be substantially

strengthened through appropriate assistance from the international community (medium confidence).

However, caution is needed

to ensure such assistance is not driving the climate change agenda in small islands, as there is a risk that critical challenges confronting island

governments and communities may not be addressed. Opportunities for effective adaptation can be found by, for example, empowering

communities and optimizing the benefits of local practices that have proven to be efficacious through time, and working synergistically to

rogress development agendas. {29.6.2.3, 29.6.3, 29.8}

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1618

29.1. Introduction

It has long been recognized that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from

small islands are negligible in relation to global emissions, but that the

threats of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) to small islands are

very real. Indeed, it has been suggested that the very existence of some

atoll nations is threatened by rising sea levels associated with global

warming. Although such scenarios are not applicable to all small island

nations, there is no doubt that on the whole the impacts of climate

change on small islands will have serious negative effects especially on

socioeconomic conditions and biophysical resources—although impacts

may be reduced through effective adaptation measures.

The small islands considered in this chapter are principally sovereign

states and territories located within the tropics of the southern and

western Pacific Ocean, central and western Indian Ocean, the Caribbean

Sea, and the eastern Atlantic off the coast of West Africa, as well as in

the more temperate Mediterranean Sea.

Although these small islands nations are by no means homogeneous

politically, socially, or culturally, or in terms of physical size and character

or economic development, there has been a tendency to generalize

about the potential impacts on small islands and their adaptive capacity.

In this chapter we attempt to strike a balance between identifying the

differences between small islands and at the same time recognizing

that small islands tend to share a number of common characteristics

that have distinguished them as a particular group in international

affairs. Also in this chapter we reiterate some of the frequently voiced

and key concerns relating to climate change impacts, vulnerability, and

adaptation while emphasizing a number of additional themes that

have emerged in the literature on small islands since the IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report (AR4). These include the relationship among climate

change policy, activities, and development issues; externally generated

transboundary impacts; and the implications of risk in relation to

adaptation and the adaptive capacity of small island nations.

29.2. Major Conclusions

from Previous Assessments

Small islands were not given a separate chapter in the IPCC First

Assessment Report (FAR) in 1990 though they were discussed in the

chapter on “World Oceans and Coastal Zones” (Tsyban et al., 1990).

Two points were highlighted. First, a 30- to 50-cm SLR projected by 2050

would threaten low islands, and a 1-m rise by 2100 “would render some

island countries uninhabitable” (Tegart et al., 1990, p. 4). Second, the

costs of protection works to combat SLR would be extremely high for

small island nations. Indeed, as a percentage of gross domestic product

(GDP), the Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Anguilla, Turks and Caicos,

Marshall Islands, and Seychelles were ranked among the 10 nations

with the highest protection costs in relation to GDP (Tsyban et al., 1990).

More than 20 years later these two points continue to be emphasized.

For instance, although small islands represent only a fraction of total

global damage projected to occur as a result of a SLR of 1.0 m by 2100

(Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1 scenario) the actual

damage costs for the small island states is enormous in relation to the

size of their economies, with several small island nations being included

in the group of 10 countries with the highest relative impact projected

for 2100 (Anthoff et al., 2010).

The Second Assessment Report (SAR) in 1995 confirmed the vulnerable

state of small islands, now included in a specific chapter titled “Coastal

Zones and Small Islands” (Bijlsma et al., 1996). However, importantly,

the SAR recognized that both vulnerability and impacts would be highly

variable between small islands and that impacts were “likely to be

greatest where local environments are already under stress as a result

f human activities” (Bijlsma et al., 1996, p. 291). The report also

summarized results from the application of a common methodology for

vulnerability and adaptation analysis that gave new insights into the

socioeconomic implications of SLR for small islands including: negative

impacts on virtually all sectors including tourism, freshwater resources,

fisheries and agriculture, human settlements, financial services, and

human health; protection is likely to be very costly; and adaptation

would involve a series of trade-offs. It also noted that major constraints

to adaptation on small islands included lack of technology and human

resource capacity, serious financial limitations, lack of cultural and social

acceptability, and uncertain political and legal frameworks. Integrated

coastal and island management was seen as a way of overcoming some

of these constraints.

The Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001 included a specific chapter

on “Small Island States.” In confirming previously identified concerns

of small island states two factors were highlighted, the first relating to

sustainability, noting that “with limited resources and low adaptive

capacity, these islands face the considerable challenge of meeting the

social and economic needs of their populations in a manner that is

sustainable” (Nurse et al., 2001, p. 845). The second noted that there

were other issues faced by small island states, concluding that “for most

small islands the reality of climate change is just one of many serious

challenges with which they are confronted” (Nurse et al., 2001, p. 846).

In the present chapter, both of these themes are raised again and

assessed in light of recent findings.

Until the AR4 in 2007, SLR had dominated vulnerability and impact

studies of small island states. Whilst a broader range of climate change

drivers and geographical spread of islands was included in the “Small

Islands” chapter, Mimura et al. (2007) prefaced their assessment by

noting that the number of “independent scientific studies on climate

change and small islands since the TAR” had been quite limited and in

their view “the volume of literature in refereed international journals

relating to small islands and climate change since publication of the

TAR is rather less than that between the SAR in 1995 and TAR in 2001”

(Mimura et al., 2007, p. 690).

Since AR4, the literature on small islands and climate change has

increased substantially. A number of features distinguish the literature

we review here from that included in earlier assessments. First, the

literature appears more sophisticated and does not shirk from dealing

with the complexity of small island vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

or the differences between islands and island states. Second, and related

to the first, the literature is less one-dimensional, and deals with climate

change in a multidimensional manner as just one of several stressors

on small island nations. Third, the literature also critiques some aspects

of climate change policy, notably in relation to critical present-day

Small Islands Chapter 29

1619

development and security needs of small islands (Section 29.3.3.1) as

well as the possibility that some proposed adaptation measures may

prove to be maladaptive (Section 29.8). Fourth, many initiatives have

been identified in recent times that will reduce vulnerability and

enhance resilience of small islands to ongoing global change including

improving risk knowledge and island resource management while also

strengthening socioeconomic systems and livelihoods (Hay, 2013).

29.3. Observed Impacts of Climate Change,

Including Detection and Attribution

The distinction between observed impacts of climate change and projected

impacts is often unclear in the small islands literature and discussions.

Publications frequently deal with both aspects of impacts interchangeably,

and use observed impacts from, for instance an extreme event, as an

analogy to what may happen in the future as a result of climate change

(e.g., Lo-Yat et al., 2011). The key climate and ocean drivers of change

that impact small islands include variations in air and ocean temperatures;

ocean chemistry; rainfall; wind strength and direction; sea levels and

wave climate; and particularly the extremes such as tropical cyclones,

drought, and distant storm swell events. All have varying impacts,

dependent on the magnitude, frequency, and temporal and spatial

extent of the event, as well as on the biophysical nature of the island

(Figure 29-1) and its social, economic, and political setting.

29.3.1. Observed Impacts on Island Coasts

and Marine Biophysical Systems

29.3.1.1. Sea Level Rise, Inundation, and Shoreline Change

SLR poses one of the most widely recognized climate change threats to

low-lying coastal areas (Cazenave and Llovel, 2010; Nicholls and Cazenave,

2010; Church and White, 2011). This is particularly important in small

islands where the majority of human communities and infrastructure is

located in coastal zones with limited on-island relocation opportunities,

especially on atoll islands (Woodroffe, 2008) (Figure 29-1). Over much of

the 20th century, global mean sea level rose at a rate between 1.3 and

1.7 mm yr

–

and since 1993, at a rate between 2.8 and 3.6 mm yr

–

(WGI AR5 Table 13.1), and acceleration is detected in longer records

since 1870 (Merrifield et al., 2009; Church and White, 2011; see also

WGI AR5 Section 13.2.2.1). Rates of SLR, however, are not uniform

cross the globe and large regional differences have been detected

including in the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific, where in some parts

rates have been significantly higher than the global average (Meyssignac

et al., 2012; see also Section 5.3.2.2). In the tropical western Pacific,

where a large number of small island communities exist, rates up to

four times the global average (approximately 12 mm yr

–1

) have been

reported between 1993 and 2009. These are generally thought to describe

short-term variations associated with natural cyclic climate phenomena

such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has a strong

modulating effect on sea level variability with lower/higher-than-average

sea level during El Niño/La Niña events of the order of ±20 to 30 cm

(Cazenave and Remy, 2011; Becker et al., 2012). Large interannual

variability in sea level has also been demonstrated from the Indian

Ocean (e.g., Chagos Archipelago; Dunne et al., 2012) while Palanisamy

et al. (2012) found that over the last 60 years the mean rate of SLR in

the Caribbean region was similar to the global average of approximately

1.8 mm yr

–1

There are few long-term sea level records available for individual small

island locations. Reported sea flooding and inundation is often associated

with transient phenomena, such as storm waves and surges, deep ocean

swell, and predicted astronomical tidal cycles (Vassie et al., 2004; Zahibo

et al., 2007; Komar and Allan, 2008; Haigh et al., 2011). For example,

high spring tide floods at Fongafale Island, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, have

been well publicized, and areas of the central portion of Fongafale are

NauruTarawa, KiribatiAitutaki, Cook Islands

Rodrigues, MauritiusSt. LuciaTanna, Vanuatu

living

perimeter

reefs

ancient

reef

deposits

Figure 29-1 | Representative tropical island typologies. From top left: A young, active volcanic island (with altitudinal zonation) and limited living perimeter reefs (red zone at

outer reef edge), through to an atoll (center bottom), and raised limestone island (bottom right) dominated by ancient reef deposits (brown + white ﬂeck). Atolls have limited,

low-lying land areas but well developed reef/lagoon systems. Islands composed of continental rocks are not included in this ﬁgure, but see Table 29-3.

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1620

already below high spring tide level. However, rates of relative SLR at

Funafuti between 1950 and 2009 have been approximately three times

higher than the global average (Becker et al., 2012), and saline flooding

of internal low-lying areas occurs regularly and is expected to become

more frequent and extensive over time (Yamano et al., 2007).

Documented cases of coastal inundation and erosion often cite additional

circumstances such as vertical subsidence, engineering works, development

activities, or beach mining as the causal process. Four examples can be

cited. First, on the Torres Islands, Vanuatu communities have been displaced

as a result of increasing inundation of low-lying settlement areas owing

to a combination of tectonic subsidence and SLR (Ballu et al., 2011).

Second, on Anjouan Island, Comores in the Indian Ocean, Sinane et al.

(2010) found beach aggregate mining was a major contributing factor

influencing rapid beach erosion. Third, the intrinsic exposure of rapidly

expanding settlements and agriculture in the low-lying flood prone

Rewa Delta, Fiji, is shown by Lata and Nunn (2012) to place populations

in increasingly severe conditions of vulnerability to flooding and marine

inundation. Fourth, Hoeke et al. (2013) describe a 2008 widespread

inundation event that displaced some 63,000 people in Papua New

Guinea and Solomon Islands alone. That event was caused primarily by

remotely generated swell waves, and the severity of flooding was

greatly increased by anomalously high regional sea levels linked with

ENSO and ongoing SLR. Such examples serve to highlight that extreme

events superimposed on a rising sea level baseline are the main drivers

that threaten the habitability of low-lying islands as sea levels continue

to rise.

Since the AR4 a number of empirical studies have documented historical

changes in island shorelines. Historical shoreline position change over

20 to 60 years on 27 central Pacific atoll islands showed that total land

area remained relatively stable in 43% of islands, while another 43%

had increased in area, and the rest showed a net reduction in land area

(Webb and Kench, 2010). Dynamic responses were also found in a 4-

year study of 17 relatively pristine islands on two other central Pacific

atolls in Kiribati by Rankey (2011), who concluded that SLR was not

likely to be the main influencing factor in these shoreline changes.

Similarly in French Polynesia, Yates et al. (2013) showed mixed shoreline

change patterns over the last 40 to 50 years with examples of both

erosion and accretion in the 47 atoll islands assessed. SLR did not

appear to be the primary control on shoreline processes on these islands.

On uninhabited Raine Island on the Great Barrier Reef, Dawson and

Smithers (2010) also found that shoreline processes were dynamic but

that island area and volume increased 6 and 4%, respectively, between

1967 and 2007. Overall, these studies of observed shoreline change on

reef islands conclude that for rates of change experienced over recent

decades, normal seasonal erosion and accretion processes appear to

predominate over any long-term morphological trend or signal at this

time. Ford’s (2013) investigation of Wotje Atoll, Marshall Islands, also

found shoreline variability between 1945 and 2010 but that overall

accretion had been more prevalent than erosion up until 2004. From

2004 to the present, 17 out of 18 islands became net erosive, potentially

corresponding to the high sea levels in the region over the last 10 years.

On the high tropical islands of Kauai and Maui, Hawaii, Romine and

Fletcher (2013) found shoreline change was highly variable over the

last century but that recently chronic erosion predominated with over

70% of beaches now being erosive. Finally, it is important to note the

majority of these studies warn that (1) past changes cannot be simply

extrapolated to determine future shoreline responses; and (2) rising sea

level will incrementally increase the rate and extent of erosion in the

future.

In many locations changing patterns of human settlement and direct

impacts on shoreline processes present immediate erosion challenges

in populated islands and coastal zones (Yamano et al., 2007; Novelo-

Casanova and Suarez, 2010; Storey and Hunter, 2010) and mask

attribution to SLR. A study of Majuro atoll (Marshall Islands) found that

erosion was widespread but attribution to SLR was obscured by pervasive

anthropogenic impacts to the coastal system (Ford, 2012; see Section

5.4.4). Similarly a study of three islands in the Rosario Archipelago

(Colombia) reported shoreline retreat over a 50- to 55-year period and

found Grande, Rosario, and Tesoro Islands had lost 6.7, 8.2, and 48.7%

of their land area, respectively. Erosion was largely attributed to poor

management on densely settled Grande Island, while SLR and persistent

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 29.1 | Why is it difﬁcult to detect and attribute changes

on small islands to climate change?

In the last 2 or 3 decades many small islands have undergone substantial changes in human settlement patterns

and in socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Those changes may have masked any clear evidence of the

effects of climate change. For example, on many small islands coastal erosion has been widespread and has adversely

affected important tourist facilities, settlements, utilities, and infrastructure. But speciﬁc case studies from islands

in the Paciﬁc, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans and the Caribbean have shown that human impacts play an important

role in this erosion, as do episodic extreme events that have long been part of the natural cycle of events affecting

small islands. So although coastal erosion is consistent with models of sea level rise resulting from climate change,

determining just how much of this erosion might have been caused by climate change impacts is difﬁcult. Given

the range of natural processes and human activities that could impact the coasts of small islands in the future,

without more and better empirical monitoring the role of climate change-related processes on small islands may

continue to be difﬁcult to identify and quantify.

Small Islands Chapter 29

1621

northeast winds enhanced erosion on uninhabited Rosario and Tesoro

(Restrepo et al., 2012). Likewise, Cambers (2009) reported average

beach erosion rates of 0.5 m yr

–1

in eight Caribbean islands from 1985

to 2000. Although the study could not quantify the extent of attribution

it noted that greater erosion rates were positively correlated with

the number of hurricane events. Alternately, Etienne and Terry (2012)

found a Category 4 tropical cyclone that passed within 30 km of Taveuni

Island (Fiji) nourished shorelines with fresh coralline sediments despite

localized storm damage. Although these studies contribute to improved

nderstanding of island shoreline processes and change since AR4, the

warning of increased vulnerability of small island shores and low-lying

areas to inundation and erosion in response to SLR and other potential

climate change stressors is not diminished.

29.3.1.2. Coastal Ecosystem Change on Small Islands:

Coral Reefs and Coastal Wetlands

Coral reefs are an important resource in small tropical islands, and the

well-being of many island communities is linked to their ongoing function

and productivity. Reefs play a significant role in supplying sediment to

island shores and in dissipating wave energy, thus reducing the potential

foreshore erosion. They also provide habitat for a host of marine species

on which many island communities are dependent for subsistence foods

as well as underpinning beach and reef-based tourism and economic

activity (Perch-Nielsen, 2010; Bell et al., 2011). The documented sensitivity

of coral reef ecosystems to climate change is summarized elsewhere

(see Chapter 5; Box CC-CR).

Increased coral bleaching and reduced reef calcification rates due to

thermal stress and increasing carbon dioxide (CO

) concentration are

expected to affect the functioning and viability of living reef systems

(Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; Eakin et al., 2009). Some studies already

implicate thermal stress in reduced coral calcification rates (Tanzil et

al., 2009) and regional declines in calcification of corals that form reef

framework (De’ath et al., 2009; Cantin et al., 2010). Unprecedented

bleaching events have been recorded in the remote Phoenix Islands

(Kiribati), with nearly 100% coral mortality in the lagoon and 62%

mortality on the outer leeward slopes of the otherwise pristine reefs of

Kanton Atoll during 2002–2003 (Alling et al., 2007). Similar patterns of

mortality were observed in four other atolls in the Phoenix group and

temperature-induced coral bleaching was also recorded in isolated

Palmyra Atoll during the 2009 ENSO event (Williams et al., 2010). In

2005 extensive bleaching was recorded at 22 sites around Rodrigues

Island in the western Indian Ocean, with up to 75% of the dominant

species affected in some areas (Hardman et al., 2007). Studies of the

severe 1998 El Niño bleaching event in the tropical Indian Ocean

showed reefs in the Maldives, Seychelles, and Chagos Islands were

among the most impacted (Cinner et al., 2012; Tkachenko, 2012). In

2005 a reef survey around Barbados following a Caribbean regional

bleaching event revealed the most severe bleaching ever recorded, with

approximately 70% of corals impacted (Oxenford et al., 2008). Globally,

the incidence and implications of temperature-related coral bleaching

in small islands is well documented, and combined with the effects of

increasing ocean acidification these stressors could threaten the

function and persistence of island coral reef ecosystems (see Chapter 5;

Box CC-OA).

Island coral reefs have limited defenses against thermal stress and

acidification. However, studies such as Cinner et al. (2012) and Tkachenko

(2012) highlight that although recovery from bleaching is variable, some

reefs show greater resilience than others. There is also some evidence

to show that coral reef resilience is enhanced in the absence of other

environmental stresses such as declining water quality. In Belize

chronologies of growth rates in massive corals (Montastraea faveolata)

over the past 75 to 150 years suggest that the bleaching event in 1998

was unprecedented and its severity appeared to stem from reduced

hermal tolerance related to human coastal development (Carilli et al.,

2010). Likewise a study over a 40-year period (1960s–2008) in the

Grand Recif of Tulear, Madagascar, concluded that severe degradation

of the reef was mostly ascribed to direct anthropogenic disturbance,

despite an average 1°C increase in temperature over this period (Harris

et al., 2010). Coral recovery following the 2004 bleaching event in the

central Pacific atolls of Tarawa and Abaiang (Kiribati) was also noted to

be improved in the absence of direct human impacts (Donner et al., 2010),

and isolation of bleached reefs was shown by Gilmour et al. (2013) to be

less inhibiting to reef recovery than direct human disturbance.

The loss of coral reef habitat has detrimental implications for coastal

fisheries (Pratchett et al., 2009) in small islands where reef-based

subsistence and tourism activities are often critical to the well-being

and economies of islands (Bell et al., 2011). In Kimbe Bay, Papua New

Guinea, 65% of coastal fish are dependent on living reefs at some stage

in their life cycle and there is evidence that fish abundance declined

following degradation of the reef (Jones et al., 2004). Even where coral

reef recovery has followed bleaching, reef-associated species composition

may not recover to its original state (Pratchett et al., 2009; Donner et al.,

2010). Sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly events can be associated

with a lag in the larval supply of coral reef fishes, as reported by Lo-Yat

et al. (2011) between 1996 and 2000 at Rangiroa Atoll, French Polynesia.

Higher temperatures have also been implicated in negatively affecting

the spawning of adult reef species (Munday et al., 2009; Donelson et

al., 2010).

Like coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass environments provide a range

of ecosystem goods and services (Waycott et al., 2009; Polidoro et al.,

2010) and both habitats play a significant role in the well-being of small

island communities. Mangroves in particular serve a host of commercial

and subsistence uses as well as providing natural coastal protection

from erosion and storm events (Ellison, 2009; Krauss et al., 2010; Waycott

et al., 2011).

SLR is reported as the most significant climate change threat to the

survival of mangroves (Waycott et al., 2011). Loss of the seaward edge

of mangroves at Hungry Bay, Bermuda, has been reported by Ellison

(1993), who attributes this process to SLR and the inability of mangroves

to tolerate increased water depth at the seaward margin. Elsewhere in

the Caribbean and tropical Pacific, observations vary in regard to the

potential for sedimentation rates in mangroves forests to keep pace

with SLR (Krauss et al., 2003; McKee et al., 2007). In Kosrae and Pohnpei

Islands (Federated States of Micronesia), Krauss et al. (2010) found

significant variability in mangrove average soil elevation changes due

to deposition from an accretion deficit of 4.95 mm yr

–1

to an accretion

surplus of 3.28 mm yr

–1

relative to the estimated rate of SLR. Such

surpluses are generally reported from high islands where additional

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1622

sediments can be delivered from terrestrial runoff. However, Rankey

(2011) described natural seaward migration (up to 40 m) of some

mangrove areas between 1969 and 2009 in atolls in Kiribati, suggesting

sediment accretion can also occur in sediment-rich reefal areas and in

the absence of terrigenous inputs.

The response of seagrass to climate change is also complex, regionally

variable, and manifest in quite different ways. A study of seven species

of seagrasses from tropical Green Island, Australia, highlighted the

ariability in response to heat and light stress (Campbell et al., 2006).

Light reduction may be a limiting factor to seagrass growth due to

increased water depth and sedimentation (Ralph et al., 2007). Ogston

and Field (2010) observed that a 20-cm rise in sea level may double the

suspended sediment loads and turbidity in shallow waters on fringing

reefs of Molokai, Hawaiian Islands, with negative implications to

photosynthetic species such as seagrass. Otherwise, temperature stress

is most commonly reported as the main expected climate change impact

on seagrass (e.g., Campbell et al., 2006; Waycott et al., 2011). Literature

on seagrass diebacks in small islands is scarce but research in the

Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean) has shown that over a 6-year

study, seagrass shoot mortality and recruitment rates were negatively

influenced by higher temperature (Marbá and Duarte, 2010; see

also Section 5.4.2.3 for further discussion of impacts on mangrove and

seagrass communities).

29.3.2. Observed Impacts on Terrestrial Systems:

Island Biodiversity and Water Resources

Climate change impacts on terrestrial biodiversity on islands, frequently

interacting with several other drivers (Blackburn et al., 2004; Didham

et al., 2005), fall into three general categories, namely: (1) ecosystem

and species horizontal shifts and range decline; (2) altitudinal species

range shifts and decline mainly due to temperature increase on high

islands; and (3) exotic and pest species range increase and invasions

mainly due to temperature increase in high-latitude islands. Owing to

the limited area and isolated nature of most islands, these effects are

generally magnified compared to continental areas and may cause

species loss, especially in tropical islands with high numbers of endemic

species. For example, in two low-lying islands in the Bahamas, Greaver

and Sternberg (2010) found that during periods of reduced rainfall the

shallow freshwater lens subsides and contracts landward and ocean

water infiltrates further inland, negatively impacting on coastal strand

vegetation. SLR has also been observed to threaten the long-term

persistence of freshwater-dependent ecosystems within low-lying

islands in the Florida Keys (Goodman et al., 2012). On Sugarloaf Key,

Ross et al. (2009) found pine forest area declined from 88 to 30 ha from

1935 to 1991 due to increasing salinization and rising groundwater,

with vegetation transitioning to more saline-tolerant species such as

mangroves.

Although there are many studies that report observations associated

with temperature increases in mid- and high-latitude islands, such as

the Falkland Islands and Marion Islands in the south Atlantic and south

Indian Ocean respectively (Le Roux et al., 2005; Bokhorst et al., 2007,

2008) and Svalbard in the Arctic (Webb et al., 1998), there are few

equivalent studies in tropical small islands. A recent study of the tropical

Mauritius kestrel indicates changing rainfall conditions in Mauritius over

the last 50 years have resulted in this species having reduced reproductive

success due to a mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak

food abundance (Senapathi et al., 2011).

Increasing global temperatures may also lead to altitudinal species

range shifts and contractions within high islands, with an upward creep

of the tree line and associated fauna (Benning et al., 2002; Krushelnycky

et al., 2013). For instance, in the central mountain ranges of the subtropical

sland of Taiwan, Province of China, historical survey and resurvey data

from 1906 to 2006 showed that the upper altitudinal limits of plant

distributions had risen by about 3.6 m yr

–1

during the last century in

parallel with rising temperatures in the region (Jump et al., 2012).

Comparable effects also occur in the tropics such as in Hawaii Volcano

National Park, where comparison of sample plots over a 40-year period

from 1966/1967 to 2008 show fire-adapted grasses expanded upward

along a warming tropical elevation gradient (Angelo and Daehler, 2013).

Reduction in the numbers and sizes of endemic populations caused by

such habitat constriction and changes in species composition in mountain

systems may result in the demise and possibly extinction of endemic

species (Pauli et al., 2007; Chen et al., 2009; Sekercioglu et al., 2008;

Krushelnycky et al., 2013). Altitudinal temperature change has also been

reported to influence the distribution of disease vectors such as

mosquitoes, potentially threatening biota unaccustomed to such vectors

(Freed et al., 2005; Atkinson and LaPointe, 2009).

Freshwater supply in small island environments has always presented

challenges and has been an issue raised in all previous IPCC reports.

On high volcanic and granitic islands, small and steep river catchments

respond rapidly to rainfall events, and watersheds generally have

restricted storage capacity. On porous limestone and low atoll islands,

surface runoff is minimal and water rapidly passes through the substrate

into the groundwater lens. Rainwater harvesting is also an important

contribution to freshwater access, and alternatives such as desalination

have had mixed success in small island settings owing to operational

costs (White and Falkland, 2010).

Rapidly growing demand, land use change, urbanization, and tourism

are already placing significant strain on the limited freshwater reserves

in small island environments (Emmanuel and Spence, 2009; Cashman

et al., 2010; White and Falkland, 2010). In the Caribbean, where there

is considerable variation in the types of freshwater supplies utilized,

concern over the status of freshwater availability has been expressed

for at least the past 30 years (Cashman et al., 2010). There have also

been economic and management failures in the water sector not only

in the Caribbean (Mycoo, 2007) but also in small islands in the Indian

(Payet and Agricole, 2006) and Pacific Oceans (White et al., 2007; Moglia

et al., 2008a,b).

These issues also occur on a background of decreasing rainfall and

increasing temperature. Rainfall records averaged over the Caribbean

region for 100 years (1900–2000) show a consistent 0.18 mm yr

–1

reduction in rainfall, a trend that is projected to continue (Jury and

Winter, 2010). In contrast, analysis of rainfall data over the past 100

years from the Seychelles has shown substantial variability related to

ENSO. Nevertheless an increase in average rainfall from 1959 to 1997

and an increase in temperature of approximately 0.25°C per decade

Small Islands Chapter 29

1623

have occurred (Payet and Agricole, 2006). Long-term reduction in

streamflow (median reduction of 22 to 23%) has been detected in

the Hawaiian Islands over the period 1913–2008, resulting in reduced

freshwater availability for both human use and ecological processes

(Bassiouni and Oki, 2013). Detection of long-term statistical change in

precipitation is an important prerequisite toward a better understanding

the impacts of climate change in small island hydrology and water

resources.

here is a paucity of empirical evidence linking saline (seawater) intrusion

into fresh groundwater reserves due simply to incremental SLR at this

time (e.g., Rozell and Wong, 2010). However, this dynamic must be the

subject of improved research given the importance of groundwater

aquifers in small island environments. White and Falkland’s (2010)

review of existing small island studies indicates that a sea level increase

of up to 1 m would have negligible salinity impacts on atoll island

groundwater lenses so long as there is adequate vertical accommodation

space, island shores remain intact, rainfall patterns do not change, and

direct human impacts are managed. However, wave overtopping and

wash-over can be expected to become more frequent with SLR, and this

has been shown to impact freshwater lenses dramatically. On Pukapuka

Atoll, Cook Islands, storm surge over-wash occurred in 2005. This caused

the freshwater lenses to become immediately brackish and took 11

months to recover to conductivity levels appropriate for human use

(Terry and Falkland, 2010). The ability of the freshwater lens to float

upward within the substrate of an island in step with incremental SLR

also means that in low-lying and central areas of many atoll islands the

lens may pond at the surface. This phenomenon already occurs in central

areas of Fongafale Island, Tuvalu, and during extreme high “king” tides

large areas of the inner part of the island become inundated with

brackish waters (Yamano et al., 2007; Locke, 2009).

29.3.3. Observed Impacts on

Human Systems in Small Islands

29.3.3.1. Observed Impacts on Island Settlements and Tourism

While traditional settlements on high islands in the Pacific were often

located inland, the move to coastal locations was encouraged by colonial

and religious authorities and more recently through the development of

tourism (Barnett and Campbell, 2010). Now the majority of settlement,

infrastructure, and development are located on lowlands along the

coastal fringe of small islands. In the case of atoll islands, all development

and settlement is essentially coastal. It follows that populations,

infrastructure, agricultural areas, and fresh groundwater supplies are

all vulnerable to extreme tides, wave and surge events, and SLR (Walsh

et al., 2012). Population drift from outer islands or from inland, together

with rapid population growth in main centers and lack of accommodation

space, drives growing populations into ever more vulnerable locations

(Connell, 2012). In addition, without adequate resources and planning,

engineering solutions such as shoreline reclamation also place

communities and infrastructure in positions of increased risk (Yamano

et al., 2007; Duvat, 2013).

Many of the environmental issues raised by the media relating to Tuvalu,

the Marshall Islands, and Maldives are primarily relevant to the major

population center and its surrounds, which are Funafuti, Majuro, and

Male, respectively. As an example, Storey and Hunter (2010) indicate

the “Kiribati” problem does not refer to the whole of Kiribati but rather

to the southern part of Tarawa atoll, where preexisting issues of severe

overcrowding, proliferation of informal housing and unplanned settlement,

inadequate water supply, poor sanitation and solid waste disposal,

pollution, and conflict over land ownership are of concern. They argue

that these problems require immediate resolution if the vulnerability

of the South Tarawa community to the “real and alarming threat”

f climate change is to be managed effectively (Storey and Hunter,

2010).

On Majuro atoll, rapid urban development and the abandonment of

traditional settlement patterns has resulted in movement from less

vulnerable to more vulnerable locations on the island (Spennemann,

1996). Likewise, geophysical studies of Fongafale Island, the capital of

Tuvalu, show that engineering works during World War II, and rapid

development and population growth since independence, have led to

the settlement of inappropriate shoreline and swampland areas, leaving

communities in heightened conditions of vulnerability (e.g., Yamano et

al., 2007). Ascribing direct climate change impacts in such disturbed

environments is problematic owing to the existing multiple lines of

stress on the island’s biophysical and social systems. However, it is clear

that such preexisting conditions of vulnerability add to the threat of

climate change in such locations. Increased risk can also result from

lack of awareness, particularly in communities in rural areas and outer

islands (“periphery”) of archipelagic countries such as Cook Islands, Fiji,

Kiribati, and Vanuatu, whose climate change knowledge often contrasts

sharply with that of communities in the major centers (“core”). In the

core, communities tend to be better informed and have higher levels of

awareness about the complex issues associated with climate change

than in the periphery (Nunn et al., 2013).

The issue of “coastal squeeze” remains a concern for many small islands

as there is a constant struggle to manage the requirements for physical

development against the need to maintain ecological balance (Fish et

al., 2008; Gero et al., 2011; Mycoo, 2011). Martinique in the Caribbean

exemplifies the point, where physical infrastructure prevents the beach

and wetlands from retreating landward as a spontaneous adaptation

response to increased rates of coastal erosion (Schleupner, 2008).

Moreover, intensive coastal development in the limited coastal zone,

combined with population growth and tourism, has placed great stress

on the coast of some islands and has resulted in dense aggregations of

infrastructure and people in potentially vulnerable locations.

Tourism is an important weather and climate-sensitive sector on many

small islands and has been assessed on several occasions, including in

previous IPCC assessments. There is currently no evidence that observed

climatic changes in small island destinations or source markets have

permanently altered patterns of demand for tourism to small islands,

and the complex mix of factors that actually determines destination

choices under a changing climate still need to be fully evaluated (Scott

et al., 2012a). However, there are cases reported that clearly show

severe weather-related events in a destination country (e.g., heavy,

persistent rainfall in Martinique: Hubner and Gössling, 2012; hurricanes

in Anguilla: Forster et al., 2012) can significantly influence visitors’

perception of the desirability of the location as a vacation choice.

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1624

Climate can also impact directly on environmental resources that are

major tourism attractions in small islands. Widespread resource

degradation challenges such as beach erosion and coral bleaching

have been found to negatively impact the perception of destination

attractiveness in various locations, for example, in Martinique (Schleupner,

2008), Barbados, and Bonaire (Uyarra et al., 2005). Similarly, dive

tourists are well aware of coral bleaching, particularly the experienced

diver segment (Gössling et al., 2012a; Klint et al., 2012). Therefore more

acute impacts are felt by tourism operators and resorts that cater to

hese markets. Houston (2002) and Buzinde et al. (2010) also indicate

that beach erosion may similarly affect accommodation prices in some

destinations. Consequently, some countries have begun to invest in a

variety of resource restoration initiatives including artificial beach

nourishment, coral and mangrove restoration, and the establishment

of marine parks and protected areas (McClanahan et al., 2008; Mycoo

and Chadwick, 2012). There is no analysis of how widespread such

investments are or their capability to cope effectively with future climate

change. The tourism industry and investors are also beginning to

consider the climate risk of tourism operations (Scott et al., 2012b),

including those associated with the availability of freshwater. Freshwater

is limited on many small islands, and changes in its availability or quality

during drought events linked to climate change have adverse impacts

on tourism operations (UNWTO, 2012). Tourism is a seasonally significant

water user in many island destinations, and in times of drought concerns

over limited supply for residents and other economic activities become

heightened (Gössling et al., 2012b). The increasing use of desalination

plants is one adaptation to reduce the risk of water scarcity in tourism

operations.

29.3.3.2. Observed Impacts on Human Health

Globally, the effects of climate change on human health will be both

direct and indirect, and are expected to exacerbate existing health risks,

especially in the most vulnerable communities, where the burden of

disease is already high (refer to Sections 11.3, 11.5, 11.6.1). Many small

island states currently suffer from climate-sensitive health problems,

including morbidity and mortality from extreme weather events, certain

vector- and food- and water-borne diseases (Lozano, 2006; Barnett and

Campbell, 2010; Cashman et al., 2010; Pulwarty et al., 2010; McMichael

and Lindgren, 2011). Extreme weather and climate events such as

tropical cyclones, storm surges, flooding, and drought can have both short-

and long-term effects on human health, including drowning, injuries,

increased disease transmission, and health problems associated with

deterioration of water quality and quantity. Most small island nations

are in tropical areas with weather conducive to the transmission of

diseases such as malaria, dengue, filariasis, and schistosomiasis.

The linkages between human health, climate variability, and seasonal

weather have been demonstrated in several recent studies. The Caribbean

has been identified as a “highly endemic zone for leptospirosis,” with

Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and Jamaica representing the highest

annual incidence (12, 10, and 7.8 cases per 100,000, respectively) in

the world, with only the Seychelles being higher (43.2 per 100,000

population) (Pappas et al., 2008). Studies conducted in Guadeloupe

demonstrated a link between El Niño occurrence and leptospirosis

incidence, with rates increasing to 13 per 100,000 population in El Niño

years, as opposed to 4.5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in La Niña and

neutral years (Herrmann-Storck et al., 2008). In addition, epidemiological

studies conducted in Trinidad reviewed the incidence of leptospirosis

during the period 1996–2007 and showed seasonal patterns in the

occurrence of confirmed leptospirosis cases, with significantly (P < 0.001)

more cases occurring in the wet season, May to November (193 cases),

than during the dry season, December to May (66 cases) (Mohan et al.,

2009). Recently changes in the epidemiology of leptospirosis have been

detected, especially in tropical islands, with the main factors being

limatic and anthropogenic ones (Pappas et al., 2008). These factors

may be enhanced with increases in ambient temperature and changes

in precipitation, vegetation, and water availability as a consequence of

climate change (Russell, 2009).

In Pacific islands the incidence of diseases such as malaria and dengue

fever has been increasing, especially endemic dengue in Samoa, Tonga,

and Kiribati (Russell, 2009). Although studies conducted so far in the

Pacific have established a direct link only between malaria, dengue, and

climate variability, these and other health risks including from cholera

are projected to increase as a consequence of climate change (Russell,

2009; see also Sections 11.2.4-5 for detailed discussion on the link

between climate change and projected increases in the outbreak of

dengue and cholera). Dengue incidence is also a major health concern

in other small island countries, including Trinidad and Tobago, Singapore,

Cape Verde, Comoros, and Mauritius (Koh et al., 2008; Chadee, 2009;

Van Kleef et al., 2010; Teles, 2011). In the specific cases of Trinidad and

Tobago and Singapore the outbreaks have been significantly correlated

with rainfall and temperature, respectively (Chadee et al., 2007; Koh et

al., 2008).

Previous IPCC assessments have consistently shown that human health

on islands can be seriously compromised by lack of access to adequate,

safe freshwater and adequate nutrition (Nurse et al., 2001; Mimura et

al., 2007). Lovell (2011) notes that in the Pacific many of the anticipated

health effects of climate change are expected to be indirect, connected

to the increased stress and declining well-being that comes with property

damage, loss of economic livelihood, and threatened communities.

There is also a growing concern in island communities in the Caribbean

Sea and Pacific and Indian Oceans that freshwater scarcity and more

intense droughts and storms could lead to a deterioration in standards of

sanitation and hygiene (Cashman et al., 2010; McMichael and Lindgren,

2011). In such circumstances, increased exposure to a range of health

risks including communicable (transmissible) diseases would be a distinct

possibility.

Ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) occurs in tropical regions and is the most

common non-bacterial food-borne illness associated with consumption

of fish. Distribution and abundance of the organisms that produce these

toxins, chiefly dinoflagellates of the genus Gambierdiscus, are reported

to correlate positively with water temperature. Consequently, there is

growing concern that increasing temperatures associated with climate

change could increase the incidence of CFP in the island regions of the

Caribbean (Morrison et al., 2008; Tester et al., 2010), Pacific (Chan et

al., 2011; Rongo and van Woesik, 2011), the Mediterranean (Aligizaki

and Nikolaidis, 2008; see also Section 29.5.5), and the Canary Islands

in the Atlantic (Pérez-Arellano et al., 2005). A recent Caribbean study

sought to characterize the relationship between SSTs and CFP incidence

Small Islands Chapter 29

1625

and to determine the effects of temperature on the growth rate of

organisms responsible for CFP. Results from this work show that in the

Lesser Antilles high rates occur in areas that experience the warmest

water temperatures and that show the least temperature variability

(Tester et al., 2010). There are also high rates in the Pacific in Tokelau,

Tuvalu, Kiribati, Cook Islands, and Vanuatu (Chan et al., 2011).

The influence of climatic factors on malaria vector density and parasite

development is well established (Chaves and Koenraadt, 2010; Béguin

t al., 2011). Previous studies have assessed the potential influence of

climate change on malaria, using deterministic or statistical models

(Martens et al., 1999; Pascual et al., 2006; Hay et al., 2009; Parham and

Michael, 2010). Although the present incidence of malaria on small

islands is not reported to be high, favorable environmental and social

circumstances for the spread of the disease are present in some island

regions and are expected to be enhanced under projected changes in

climate in Papua New Guinea, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guyana

(Michon et al., 2007; Figueroa, 2008; Rawlins et al., 2008). In the

Caribbean, the occurrence of autochthonous malaria in non-endemic

island countries in the last 10 years suggests that all of the essential

malaria transmission conditions now exist. Rawlins et al. (2008) call for

enhanced surveillance, recognizing the possible impact of climate

change on the spread of the Anopheles mosquito vector and malaria

transmission.

29.3.3.3. Observed Impacts of Climate Change

on Relocation and Migration

Evidence of human migration as a response to climate change is scarce

for small islands. Although there is general agreement that migration

is usually driven by multiple factors (Black et al., 2011), several authors

highlight the lack of empirical studies of the effect of climate-related

factors, such as SLR, on island migration (Mortreux and Barnett, 2009;

Lilleør and Van den Broeck, 2011). Furthermore, there is no evidence of

any government policy that allows for climate “refugees” from islands

to be accepted into another country (Bedford and Bedford, 2010). This

finding contrasts with the early desk-based estimates of migration

under climate change such as the work of Myers (2002). These early

studies have been criticized as they fail to acknowledge the reality of

climate impacts on islands, the capacity of islands and islanders to

adapt, or the actual drivers of migration (Barnett and O’Neill, 2012).

Studies of island migration commonly reveal the complexity of a decision

to migrate and rarely identify a single cause. For example, when looking

at historical process of migration within the Mediterranean, it appears

that rising levels of income, coupled with a decreased dependence on

subsistence agriculture, has left the Mediterranean less vulnerable to

all environmental stressors, resulting in a reduced need for mobility to

cope with environmental or climatic change (de Haas, 2011). Studies

from the Pacific have also shown that culture, lifestyle, and a connection

to place are more significant drivers of migration than climate (Barnett

and Webber, 2010). For example, a Pacific Access Category of migration

has been agreed between New Zealand and Tuvalu that permits 75

Tuvaluans to migrate to New Zealand every year (Kravchenko, 2008).

Instead of enabling climate-driven migration, this agreement is designed

to facilitate economic and social migration as part of the Pacific Island

lifestyle (Shen and Gemenne, 2011). To date there is no unequivocal

evidence that reveals migration from islands is being driven by

anthropogenic climate change.

There is, however, some evidence that environmental change has played

a role in Pacific Island migration in the past (Nunn, 2007). In the Pacific,

environmental change has been shown to affect land use and land rights,

which in turn have become drivers of migration (Bedford and Bedford,

2010). In a survey of 86 case studies of community relocations in Pacific

slands, Campbell et al. (2005) found that environmental variability and

natural hazards accounted for 37 communities relocating. In the Pacific,

where land rights are a source of conflict, climate change could increase

levels of stress associated with land rights and impact on migration

(Campbell, 2010; Weir and Virani, 2011). Although there is not yet a

climate fingerprint on migration and resettlement patterns in all small

islands, it is clear that there is the potential for human movement as a

response to climate change. To understand better the impact of climate

change on migration there is an urgent need for robust methods to

identify and measure the effects of the drivers of migration on migration

and resettlement.

29.3.3.4. Observed Impacts on Island Economies

The economic and environmental vulnerabilities of small islands states are

well documented (Briguglio et al., 2009, Bishop, 2012). Such vulnerabilities,

which render the states at risk of being harmed by economic and

environmental conditions, stem from intrinsic features of these vulnerable

states, and are not usually governance induced. However, governance

does remain one of the challenges for island countries in the Pacific in the

pursuit of sustainable development through economic growth (Prasad,

2008). Economic vulnerability is often the result of a high degree of

exposure to economic conditions often outside the control of small island

states, exacerbated by dependence on a narrow range of exports and a

high degree of dependence on strategic imports, such as food and fuel

(Briguglio et al., 2009). This leads to economic volatility, a condition

that is harmful for the economy of the islands (Guillaumont, 2010).

There are other economic downsides associated with small size and

insularity. Small size leads to high overhead cost per capita, particularly

in infrastructural outlays. This is of major relevance to climate change

adaptation that often requires upgrades and redesign of island

infrastructure. Insularity leads to high cost of transport per unit,

associated with purchases of raw materials and industrial supplies in

small quantities, and sales of local produced products to distant

markets. These disadvantages are associated with the inability of small

islands to reap the benefits of economies of scale, resulting in a high

cost of doing business in small islands (Winters and Martins, 2004).

High costs are also associated with the small size of island states when

impacted by extreme events such as hurricanes and droughts. On small

islands such events often disrupt most of the territory, especially on

single-island states, and have a very large negative impact on the state’s

GDP, in comparison with larger and more populous states where

individual events generally only affect a small proportion of the country

and have a small impact on its GDP (Anthoff et al., 2010). Moreover,

the dependence of many small islands on a limited number of economic

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1626

sectors such as tourism, fisheries, and agricultural crops, all of which are

climate sensitive, means that on the one hand climate change adaptation

is integral to social stability and economic vitality but that government

adaptation efforts are constrained because of the high cost on the other.

29.3.4. Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts of

Climate Change on Small Islands

While exceptional vulnerability of many small islands to future climate

change is widely accepted, the foregoing analysis indicates that the

scientific literature on observed impacts is quite limited. Detection of past

and recent climate change impacts is challenging owing to the presence

of other anthropogenic drivers, especially in the constrained environments

of small islands. Attribution is further challenged by the strong influence

of natural climate variability compared to gradual incremental change

of climate drivers. Notwithstanding these limitations, a summary of the

relationship between detection and attribution to climate change of

several of the phenomena described in the preceding sections has been

prepared. Figure 29-2 reflects the degree of confidence in the link between

observed changes in several components of the coastal, terrestrial, and

human systems of small islands and the drivers of climate change.

29.4. Projected Integrated

Climate Change Impacts

Small islands face many challenges in using climate change projections

for policy development and decision making (Keener et al., 2012). Among

these is the inaction inherent in the mismatch of the short-term time

scale on which government decisions are generally taken compared

with the long-term time scale required for decisions related to climate

change. This is further magnified by the general absence of credible

regional socioeconomic scenarios relevant at the spatial scale at which

most decisions are taken. Scenarios are an important tool to help

decision makers disaggregate vulnerability to the direct physical impacts

of the climate signal from the vulnerability associated with socioeconomic

conditions and governance. There is, however, a problem in generating

formal climate scenarios at the scale of small islands because they are

generally much smaller than the resolution of the global climate models.

This is because the grid squares in the Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

used in the SRES scenarios over the last decade were between 200 and

600 km

, which provides inadequate resolution over the land areas of most

small islands. This has recently improved with the new Representative

Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario GCMs with grid boxes generally

between 100 and 200 km

in size.

The scale problem has been usually addressed by the implementation

of statistical downscaling models that relate GCM output to the historical

climate of a local small island data point. The limitation of this approach

is the need for observed data ideally for at least 3 decades for a number

of representative points on the island, in order to establish the statistical

relationships between GCM data and observations. In most small

islands long-term quality-controlled climate data are generally sparse,

so that in widely dispersed islands such as in the Pacific, observational

records are usually supplemented with satellite observations combined

with dynamical downscaling computer models (Australian Bureau of

Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011a; Keener et al., 2012). However, where

adequate local data are available for several stations for at least 30

years, downscaling techniques have demonstrated that they can provide

projections at fine scales ranging from about 10 to 25 km

(e.g., Charlery

and Nurse, 2010; Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011a).

Even so, most projected changes in climate for the Caribbean Sea,

Pacific and Indian Oceans, and Mediterranean islands generally apply to

the region as a whole, and this may be adequate to determine general

trends in regions where islands are close together.

29.4.1. Non-formal Scenario-based Projected Impacts

Scenarios are often constructed by using a qualitative or broad order

of magnitude climate projections approach based on expected changes

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 29.2 | Why is the cost of adaptation to climate change so high in small islands?

Adaptation to climate change that involves infrastructural works generally requires large up-front overhead costs,

which in the case of small islands cannot be easily downscaled in proportion to the size of the population or territory.

This is a major socioeconomic reality that confronts many small islands, notwithstanding the beneﬁts that could

accrue to island communities through adaptation. Referred to as “indivisibility” in economics, the problem can be

illustrated by the cost of shore protection works aimed at reducing the impact of sea level rise. The unit cost of

shoreline protection per capita in small islands is substantially higher than the unit cost for a similar structure in a

larger territory with a larger population. This scale-reality applies throughout much of a small island economy

including the indivisibility of public utilities, services, and all forms of development. Moreover, the relative impact

of an extreme event such as a tropical cyclone that can affect most of a small island’s territory has a disproportionate

impact on that state’s gross domestic product, compared to a larger country where an individual event generally

affects a small proportion of its total territory and its GDP. The result is relatively higher adaptation and disaster risk

reduction costs per capita in countries with small populations and areas—especially those that are also geographically

isolated, have a poor resource base, and have high transport costs.

Small Islands Chapter 29

1627

in some physical climate signal from literature review rather than

projections based on direct location-specific modeling. Usually this is

proposed as a “what if” question that is then quantified using a

numerical method. For example, in the Pacific, digital elevation models

of Fiji’s islands have been used to identify high risk areas for flooding

based on six scenarios for SLR from 0.09 to 0.88 m in combination with

six scenarios for storm surge with return intervals from 1 to 50 years

(Gravelle and Mimura, 2008). Another example of qualitative modeling

from the Pacific is a case study from Nauru that uses local data and

knowledge of climate to assess the GCM projections. It suggests that

Nauru should plan for continued ENSO variability in the future with dry

years during La Niña and an overall increase in mean rainfall and

extreme rainfall events. Climate adaptation concerns that arise include

water security and potential changes in extreme wet events that affect

infrastructure and human health (Brown et al., 2013a). Climate change

also poses risks for food security in the Pacific Islands, including

agriculture and fisheries (Barnett, 2011).

Projections have also been used in the islands of the Republic of

Baharain to estimate proneness to inundation for SLR of 0.5, 1.0, and

1.5 m (Al-Jeneid et al., 2008). Similarly, in the Caribbean the elevation

equivalent of a projected SLR of 1 m has been superimposed on

topographic maps to estimate that 49 to 60% of tourist resort properties

would be at risk of beach erosion damage, potentially transforming the

competitive position and sustainability of coastal tourism destinations

in the region (Scott et al., 2012c). This method has also been used to

quantify the area loss for more than 12,900 islands and more than 3000

terrestrial vertebrates in the tropical Pacific region for three SLR scenarios.

The study estimated that for SLR of 1 m, 37 island endemic species in

this region risk complete inundation (Wetzel et al., 2013).

29.4.2. Projected Impacts for Islands

Based on Scenario Projections

Another approach to scenario development is to use the region-specific

projections more directly. It is worth noting that the broad synthesis in

the AR4 of medium emissions climate scenario projections for small

island regions (Mimura et al., 2007) shows concordance with the new

RCP scenarios (see Table 29-1 and new RCP projections in Figure 29-3).

For example, the SRES A1B medium emissions scenario suggests about

a 1.8°C to 2.3°C median annual increase in surface temperature in the

Caribbean Sea and Indian and Pacific Ocean small islands regions by

2100 compared to a 1980–1999 baseline, with an overall annual decrease

in precipitation of about 12% in the Caribbean (WGI AR4 Table 11.1;

WGI AR5 Section 14.7.4) and a 3 to 5% increase in the Indian and

Pacific Ocean small island regions. Comparative projections for the new

RCP4.5 scenario suggests about a 1.2°C to 2.3°C increase in surface

temperature by 2100 compared to a 1986–2005 baseline and a decrease

in precipitation of about 5 or 6% in the Caribbean and Mediterranean,

respectively, signaling potential future problems for agriculture and

water availability compared to a 1 to 9% increase in the Indian and

Pacific Ocean small islands regions (Table 29-1). However, there are

important spatial and high-island topography differences. Thus, for

example, among the more dispersed Pacific Islands where the equatorial

regions are likely to get wetter and the subtropical high pressure belts

. Greater rates of sea level rise relative to global means

2. Sea level rise consistent with global means

. Marine inundation of low-lying areas

. Shoreline erosion

5. Coral bleaching in small island marine environments

6. Increased resilience of coral reefs and shorelines in the absence of

direct human disturbance

. Acidiﬁcation of surface waters

8. Degraded coastal ﬁsheries

. Degradation of mangroves and seagrass

0. Saline incursion degrading ecosystems

11. Altitudinal species shift

12. Incremental degradation of groundwater quality

3. Island marine overtopping and rapid salinization of groundwater

4. General environmental degradation and loss of habitat in urban

ocations

5. Reduced tourism

16. Human susceptibility to climate-induced diseases

17. Casualties and damage during extreme events

8. Re-location of communities/migration

Coastal systems

Terrestrial systems

Human systems

Very low

Low Medium

Degree of conﬁdence in detection

High

Very high

Low Medium

Degree of conﬁdence in attribution

High Very high

1213

Figure 29-2 | A comparison of the degree of conﬁdence in the detection of observed impacts of climate change on tropical small islands with the degree of conﬁdence in

attribution to climate change drivers at this time. For example, the blue symbol No. 2 (Coastal Systems) indicates there is very high conﬁdence in both the detection of “sea level

rise consistent with global means” and its attribution to climate change drivers; whereas the red symbol No. 17 (Human Systems) indicates that although conﬁdence in detection

of “casualties and damage during extreme events” is very high, there is at present low conﬁdence in the attribution to climate change. It is important to note that low conﬁdence

in attribution frequently arises owing to the limited research available on small island environments.

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1628

drier (as reported by WGI AR5) in regions directly affected by the South

Pacific Convergent Zone (SPCZ) and western portion of the Inter-Tropical

Convergent Zone (ITCZ), the rainfall outlook is uncertain (WGI AR5

Section 14.7.13). Projections for the Mediterranean islands also differ

from those for the tropical small islands. Throughout the Mediterranean

region, the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat

waves are very likely to increase to the year 2100 (WGI AR5 Section

14.7.6). SLR projections in the small islands regions for RCP4.5 are

similar to the global projections of 0.41 to 0.71 m (WGI AR5 Section

13.5.1), ranging from 0.5 to 0.6 m by 2100 compared to 1986–2005 in

the Caribbean Sea and Pacific and Indian Oceans to 0.4 to 0.5 m in the

Mediterranean and north Indian Ocean (Table 29-1).

In the main regions in which most tropical or subtropical small island

states are located, there are few independent peer-reviewed scientific

publications providing downscaled climate data projections, and even

less illustrating the experience gained from their use for policy making.

A possible 2°C temperature increase by the year 2100 has potentially

far-reaching consequences for sentinel ecosystems such as coral reefs

that are important to tropical islands (see Section 6.2.2.4.4). This is

because “degree heating months” (DHMs) greater than 2°C per month

are the determining threshold for severe coral bleaching (Donner, 2009).

For example, in a study of SST across all coral reef regions using GCM

ensemble projections forced with five different SRES future emissions

scenarios, Donner (2009) concluded that even warming in the future

from the current accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere could cause

more than half of the world’s coral reefs to experience harmfully

frequent thermal stress by 2080. Further, this timeline could be brought

forward to as early as 2030 under the A1B medium emissions scenario.

He further stated that thermal adaptation of 1.5°C would delay the

thermal stress forecast by only 50 to 80 years. Donner (2009) also

estimated the year of likelihood of a severe mass coral bleaching event

due more than once every 5 years to be 2074 in the Caribbean, 2088 in

the western Indian Ocean, 2082 in the central Indian Ocean, 2065 in

Micronesia, 2051 in the central Pacific, 2094 in Polynesia, and 2073 in

the eastern Pacific small islands regions. Using the new RCP scenarios by

comparison, van Hooidonk et al. (2013) found that the onset of annual

bleaching conditions is associated with about 510 ppm CO

-eq. The

conclusion based on outputs from a wide range of emissions scenarios

and models is that preserving more than 10% of coral reefs worldwide

would require limiting warming to less than 1.5°C (1.3°C to 1.8°C

Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) range) compared

to pre-industrial levels (Frieler et al., 2013).

Small island economies can also be objectively shown to be at greater

risk from SLR in comparison to other geographic areas because most

f their population and infrastructure are in the coastal zone. This is

demonstrated in a study using the Climate Framework for Uncertainty,

Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) model to assess the economic

impact of substantial SLR in a range of socioeconomic scenarios

downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES storylines

(Anthoff et al., 2010). Although this study showed that, in magnitude,

a few regions will experience most of the absolute costs of SLR by 2100,

especially East Asia, North America, Europe, and South Asia, these same

results when expressed as percent of GDP showed that most of the top

ten and four of the top five most impacted are small islands from the

Pacific (Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Marshall Islands, Nauru)

and Caribbean (Bahamas). The point is made that the damage costs for

these small island states are enormous in relation to the size of their

economies (Nicholls and Tol, 2006) and that, together with deltaic areas,

they will find it most difficult to locally raise the finances necessary to

implement adequate coastal protection (Anthoff et al., 2010).

In the Caribbean, downscaled climate projections have been generated

for some islands using the Hadley Centre PRECIS (Providing REgional

Climates for Impact Studies) regional model (Taylor et al., 2007;

Stephenson et al., 2008). For the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, the PRECIS

regional climate model projects an increase in temperature across the

Caribbean of 1°C to 4°C compared to a 1960–1990 baseline, with

increasing rainfall during the latter part of the wet season from November

to January in the northern Caribbean (i.e., north of 22°N) and drier

conditions in the southern Caribbean linked to changes in the Caribbean

Low Level Jet (CLLJ) with a strong tendency to drying in the traditional

wet season from June to October (Whyte et al., 2008; Campbell et al.,

2011; Taylor et al., 2013). Projected lengthening seasonal dry periods,

and increasing frequency of drought are expected to increase demand

for water throughout the region under the SRES A1B scenario (Cashman

et al., 2010). Decrease in crop yield is also projected in Puerto Rico for

the SRES B1 (low), A2 (mid to high), and A1F1 scenarios during

September although increased crop yield is suggested during February

(Harmsen et al., 2009). Using a tourism demand model linked to the SRES

A1F1, A2, B1, and B2 scenarios, the projected climate change heating

and drying impacts are also linked to potential aesthetic, physical, and

thermal effects that are estimated to cause a change in total regional

tourist expenditure of about +321, +356, –118, and -146 million US$

from the least to the most severe emissions scenario, respectively

(Moore, 2010).

In the Indian Ocean, representative downscaled projections have been

generated for Australia’s two Indian Ocean territories, the Cocos (Keeling)

Islands and Christmas Island using the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific

and Industrial Research Organisation) Mark 3.0 climate model with the

SRES A2 high-emissions scenario (Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd., 2009).

Future climate change projections for the two islands for 2070 include

Small island region

RCP4.5 annual projected change for2081–2100

compared to 1986–2005

Temperature (°C) Precipitation (%)

Sea level

(m)

25% 50% 75% 25% 50% 75% Range

Caribbean 1.2 1.4 1.9 – 10 – 5 – 1 0.5 – 0.6

Mediterranean 2.0 2.3 2.7 – 10 – 6 – 3 0.4 – 0.5

orthern tropical Paciﬁ c 1.2 1.4 1.7 0 1 4 0.5 – 0.6

Southern Paciﬁ c 1.1 1.2 1.5 0 2 4 0.5 – 0.6

orth Indian Ocean 1.3 1.5 2.0 5 9 20 0.4 – 0.5

West Indian Ocean 1.2 1.4 1.8 0 2 5 0.5 – 0.6

Table 29-1 | Climate change projections for the intermediate low (500 –700 ppm

e) Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario for the main

small island regions. The table shows the 25th, 50th (median), and 75th percentiles

for surface temperature and precipitation based on averages from 42 Coupled Model

Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global models (adapted from WGI AR5 Table

14.1). Mean net regional sea level change is evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models and

includes regional non-scenario components (adapted from WGI AR5 Figure 13-20).

Small Islands Chapter 29

1629

an approximate 1.8°C increase in air temperature by 2070, probable

drier dry seasons and wet seasons, about a 40-cm rise in sea level, and

a decrease in the number of intense tropical cyclones.

In the western tropical Pacific, extensive climate projections have been

made for several Pacific Island countries based on downscaling from

an ensemble of models (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO,

2011b). The temperature projections in this region dominated by oceans

seem less than those seen globally, ranging from +1.5 to 2.0°C for the

1 low-emissions scenario to +2.5 to 3.0°C for the A2 high-emissions

scenario by the year 2090 relative to a 20-year period centered on 1990.

Notably, extreme rainfall events that currently occur once every 20 years

on average are generally simulated to occur four times per 20-year

period, on average, by 2055 and seven times per 20-year period, on

average, by 2090 under the A2 (high-emissions) scenario (Australian

Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011b). The results are not very

different from the tropical Pacific RCP4.5 projections, with projected

temperature increases of about +1.2 to 1.4°C by 2100 and an increase

in rainfall of about 4% (Table 29-1). A comprehensive assessment of

the vulnerability of the fisheries and aquaculture sectors to climate

change in 22 Pacific island countries and territories focused on two

future time frames (2035 and 2100) and two SRES emissions scenarios,

B1 (low emissions) and A2 (high emissions) (Bell et al., 2013). Many

anticipated changes in habitat and resource availability such as coral

reef-based fisheries are negative. By contrast, projected changes in tuna

fisheries and freshwater aquaculture/fisheries can be positive with

implications for government revenue and island food security (Bell et

al., 2013). Simulation studies on changes in stocks of skipjack and

bigeye tuna in the tropical Pacific area summarized in Table 29-2 and

also discussed in Sections 7.4.2.1 and 30.6.2.1.1. Some of these

projected changes may favor the large international fishing fleets that

can shift operations over large distances compared to local, artisanal

fishers (Polovina et al., 2011).

In the Mediterranean islands of Mallorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Crete, and

Lesvos, Gritti et al. (2006) simulated the terrestrial vegetation biogeography

and distribution dynamics under the SRES A1F1 and B1 scenarios to the

year 2050. The simulations indicate that the effects of climate change are

expected to be negligible within most ecosystems except for mountainous

areas. These areas are projected to be eventually occupied by exotic

vegetation types from warmer, drier conditions. Cruz et al. (2009) report

similar results for the terrestrial ecosystems of Madeira Island in the

Atlantic. Downscaled SRES A2 and B2 scenarios for the periods 2040–

2069 and 2070–2099 suggest that the higher altitude native humid

forest, called the Laurissilva, may expand upward in altitude, which

ould lead to a severe reduction of the heath woodland which because

it has little upward area to shift may reduce in range or disappear at

high altitudes, resulting in the loss of rare and endemic species within

this ecosystem.

29.4.3. Representative Concentration Pathway Projections

and Implications for Small Islands

Utilizing updated historical GHG emissions data the scientific community

has produced future projections for four plausible new global RCPs to

explore a range of global climate signals up to the year 2100 and beyond

(e.g., Moss et al., 2010). Typical model ensemble representations of low,

intermediate low, intermediate high, and high RCP projections for annual

temperature and precipitationin some small islands regions are presented

in Figure 29-3. Highlighted in Figure 29-3 is the ensemble mean of each

RCP. A more comprehensive compilation of quarterly global RCP

projections can be found in the WGI AR5 Annex I: Atlas of Global and

Regional Climate Projections.

During negotiations toward a new multilateral climate change regime

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have advocated that any agreement

should be based on Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) increase

“well below” 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (Hare et al., 2011; Riedy

and McGregor, 2011). Inspection of column 1 in Figure 29-3 suggests

that for the Caribbean, Indian Ocean, and Pacific SIDS in the tropics, the

median projected regional increase is in the range 0.5°C to 0.9°C by 2100

compared to 1986–2005. This, together with the temperature change that

has already occurred since the Industrial Revolution, suggests that a

temperature “well below” 1.5°C is unlikely to be achieved with the lowest

RCP2.6 projection (Peters et al., 2013). By comparison, temperature

projections for the intermediate low RCP4.5 scenario (Table 29-1; Figure

29-3) suggest possible 1.2°C to 1.5°C temperature increases in Caribbean,

Indian Ocean, and Pacific SIDS by 2100 compared to 1986–2005.

Similarly, the projections for the Mediterranean would be about a 2.3°C

increase by 2100 compared to 1986–2005 that would represent a 2.7°C

increase compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Associated with

this change, the Caribbean and Mediterranean regions may experience

a noticeable decrease in mean rainfall while the Indian and Pacific

Ocean SIDS may experience increased rainfall. These trends accelerate

moderately for RCP6.0 and steeply for RCP8.5 (Table 29-1).

29.5. Inter- and Intra-regional Transboundary

Impacts on Small Islands

Available literature since AR4 has highlighted previously less well

understood impacts on small islands that are generated by processes

Tuna ﬁ shery

Change in catch (%)

2035: B1/ A2 2100: B1 2100: A2

Skipjack tuna Western ﬁ shery +11 – 0.2 – 21

Eastern ﬁ shery +37 +43 +27

Total +19 +12 – 7

Bigeye tuna Western ﬁ shery – 2 –12 – 34

Eastern ﬁ shery +3 – 4 –18

Total +0.3 – 9 – 27

Country

Change in government revenue (%)

2035: B1/ A2 2100: B1 2100: A2

Federated States of Micronesia +1 to +2 0 to +1 –1 to – 2

Solomon Islands 0 to +0.2 0 to – 0.3 0 to +0.8

Kiribati +11 to +18 +13 to +21 +7 to +12

Tuvalu +4 to +9 +4 to +10 +2 to +6

Table 29-2 | Summary of projected percentage changes in tropical Paciﬁ c tuna

catches by 2036 and 2100 relative to 1980 – 2000 for SRES scenarios A2 and B1, and

the estimated resulting percentage change to government revenue (after Tables 12.7

and 12.9 of Bell et al., 2011).

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1630

originating in another region or continent well beyond the borders of

an individual archipelagic nation or small island. These are inter-regional

transboundary impacts. Intra-regional transboundary impacts originate

from a within-region source (e.g., the Caribbean). Some transboundary

processes may have positive effects on the receiving small island or

nation, though most that are reported have negative impacts. Deciphering

a climate change signal in inter- and intra-regional transboundary impacts

on small islands is not easy and usually involves a chain of linkages

tracing back from island-impact to a distant climate or climate-related

io-physical or human process. Some examples are given below.

29.5.1. Large Ocean Waves from Distant Sources

Unusually large deep ocean swells, generated from sources in the mid-

and high latitudes by extratropical cyclones (ETCs) cause considerable

damage on the coasts of small islands thousands of kilometers away in

the tropics. Impacts include sea flooding and inundation of settlements,

nfrastructure, and tourism facilities as well as severe erosion of beaches

(see also Section 5.4.3.4). Examples from small islands in the Pacific and

Caribbean are common, though perhaps the most significant instance,

in terms of a harbinger of climate change and SLR, occurred in the

Near-surface air temperature

Precipitation

Mediterranean

Northern Tropical Paciﬁc

Caribbean

2081–2100

mean

–100

–50

100

150

–100

–50

100

150

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

–4

–2

2081–2100

mean

–4

–2

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

°C

–4

–2

–4

–2

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

2081–2100

mean

°C

2081–2100

mean

–100

–50

100

150

–100

–50

100

150

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Range for projected

global temperature

75th percentile

95th percentile

5th percentile

Median

25th

percentile

2081–2100

mean

–100

–50

100

150

1900

1950

2000

2050 2100

–100

–50

100

150

–

–2

1900 1950

2000

2050 2100

–

–2

2081–2100

mean

°C

Continued next page

thin lines = one ensemble

member per model

thick lines = CMIP5

multi-model mean

RCP2.6 RCP4.5

RCP6.0 RCP8.5

Historical

Figure 29-3 | Time series of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios annual projected temperature and precipitation change relative to 1986–2005 for six small

islands regions (using regions deﬁned in WGI AR5 Annex 1: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections). Thin lines denote one ensemble member per model, and thick lines

the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model mean. On the righthand side, the 5th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, and 95th percentiles of the

distribution of 20-year mean changes are given for 2081–2100 in the four RCP scenarios. Note that the model ensemble averages in the ﬁgure are for grid points over wide

areas and encompass many different climate change signals.

Small Islands Chapter 29

1631

Maldives in April 1987 when long period swells originating from the

Southern Ocean some 6000 km away caused major flooding, damage

to property, destruction of sea defenses, and erosion of reclaimed land

and islands (Harangozo, 1992). The Maldives and several other island

groups in the Indian Ocean have been subject to similar ocean swell

events more recently, most notably in May 2007 (Maldives Department

of Meteorology, 2007).

In the Caribbean, northerly swells affecting the coasts of islands have

been recognized as a significant coastal hazard since the 1950s (Donn

and McGuinness, 1959). They cause considerable seasonal damage to

beaches, marine ecosystems, and coastal infrastructure throughout the

region (Bush et al., 2009; Cambers, 2009). These high-energy events

manifest themselves as long period high-amplitude waves that occur

during the Northern Hemisphere winter and often impact the normally

sheltered, low-energy leeward coasts of the islands. Such swells have

even reached the shores of Guyana on the South American mainland

as illustrated by a swell event in October 2005 that caused widespread

flooding and overtopping and destruction of sea defenses (van Ledden

et al., 2009).

Distant origin swells differ from the “normal” wave climate conditions

experienced in the Caribbean, particularly with respect to direction of

wave approach, wave height, and periodicity and in their morphological

impact (Cooper et al., 2013). Swells of similar origin and characteristics

also occur in the Pacific (Fletcher et al., 2008; Keener et al., 2012). These

events frequently occur in the Hawaiian Islands, where there is evidence

of damage to coral growth by swell from the north Pacific, especially

during years with a strong El Niño signal (Fletcher et al., 2008).

Hoeke et al. (2013) describe inundation from mid- to high-latitude north

and south Pacific waves respectively at Majuro (Marshall Islands) in

November and December 1979 and along the Coral Coast (Fiji) in May

2011. They also describe in detail an inundation event in December

2008 that was widespread throughout the western and central Pacific

and resulted in waves surging across low-lying islands causing severe

damage to housing and infrastructure and key natural resources that

affected about 100,000 people across the region. The proximate cause

of this event was swell generated in mid-latitudes of the North Pacific

Ocean, more than 4000 km from the farthest affected island (Hoeke et

al., 2013).

Southern Tropical Paciﬁc

West Indian Ocean

North Indian Ocean

–

2081–2100

mean

-2

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

°C

081

–2

100

mean

–100

–

100

150

-100

100

150

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

–4

–2

2081–2100

mean

-4

-2

1900

1950 2000 2050 2100

°C

2081–2100

mean

–100

–50

100

150

-100

-50

100

150

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

–4

–2

2081–2100

mean

-4

-2

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

2081–2100

mean

–100

–50

100

-100

-50

100

150

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Figure 29-3 (continued)

Near-surface air temperature

recipitation

°C

150

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1632

Whereas the origin of the long period ocean swells that impact small

islands in the tropical regions come from the mid- and high latitudes in

the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, there are also instances of

unusually large waves generated from tropical cyclones that spread into

the mid- and high latitudes. One example occurred during 1999 when

tide gauges at Ascension and St. Helena Islands in the central south

Atlantic recorded unusually large deep-ocean swell generated from

distant Hurricane Irene (Vassie et al., 2004). The impacts of increasing

incidence or severity of storms or cyclones is generally considered

rom the perspective of direct landfall of such systems, whereas all of

these instances serve to show “the potential importance of swells to

communities on distant, low-lying coasts, particularly if the climatology

of swells is modified under future climate change” (Vassie et al., 2004,

p. 1095). From the perspective of those islands that suffer damage from

this coastal hazard on an annual basis, this is an area that warrants

further investigation. Projected changes in global wind-wave climate to

2070–2100, compared to a base period 1979–2009, show considerable

regional and seasonal differences with both decreases and increases in

annual mean significant wave height. Of particular relevance in the

present context is the projected increase in wave activity in the Southern

Ocean, which influences a large portion of the global ocean as swell

waves propagate northward into the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans

(Hemer et al., 2013).

Deep ocean swell waves and elevated sea levels resulting from ETCs are

examples of inter-regional transboundary processes; locally generated

ropical cyclones (TCs) provide examples of intra-regional transboundary

processes. Whereas hurricane force winds, heavy rainfall, and turbulent

seas associated with TCs can cause massive damage to both land and

coastal systems in tropical small islands, the impacts of sea waves and

inundation associated with far distant ETCs are limited to the coastal

margins. Nevertheless both storm types result in a range of impacts

covering island morphology, natural and ecological systems, island

economies, settlements, and human well-being (see Figure 29-4).

1. Coastal and/or island erosion

3. Flooding and marine inundation

11. Losses in commercial agriculture

14. Losses in tourism sector 19. Damage to cultural assets

Impacts on island morphology Impacts on island livelihoods

Impacts on

settlements and infrastructure

5. Coastal landslides, cliff and

hillslope changes

9. S

aline intrusion into freshwater

lenses

4. Delta, river, estuary, ﬂoodplain

changes

13. Damage to and losses in

aquaculture

10. Damage to or destruction of

subsistence crops

15. Destruction of buildings and

houses

16. Damage to transport facilities

(roads, ports, airports)

17. Damage to public facilities (water

supply, energy generation)

18. Damage to health and safety

infrastructure

7. Damage to mangroves and

coastal wetlands

2. Coastal and/or island accretion

6. Coral reef damage

8. Soil salination from inundation

12. Decrease in ﬁsh production

Impacts on ecosystems and

natural resources

Figure 29-4 | Tropical and extratropical cyclone (ETC) impacts on the coasts of small islands. Four types of impacts are distinguished here, with black arrows showing the

connections between them, based on the existing literature. An example of the chain of impacts associated with two ETCs centered to the east of Japan is illustrated by the red

arrows. Swell waves generated by these events in December 2008 reached islands in the southwest Paciﬁc and caused extensive ﬂooding (3) that impacted soil quality (8) and

freshwater resources (9), and damaged crops (10), buildings (15), and transport facilities (16) in the region (example based on Hoeke et al., 2013).

Examples of tropical cyclone impacts on small island coasts (with reference):

1. Society Islands, French Polynesia, February 2010 (Etienne, 2012); 2. Taveuni, Fiji, March 2010 (Etienne and Terry, 2012); 3. Cook Islands (de Scally, 2008); Society and Autral

Islands, French Polynesia, February 2010 (Etienne, 2012); 4. Viti Levu, Fiji, March 1997 (Terry et al., 2002); 5. Society Islands, French Polynesia, February 2010 (Etienne, 2012);

6. Curacao, Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles, November 1999 (Scheffers and Scheffers, 2006); Hawaiian Islands (Fletcher et al., 2008); 7. Bay Islands, Honduras, October 1998

(Cahoon et al., 2003); 8. Marshall Islands, June 1905 (Spennemann, 1996); 9. Pukapuka atoll, Cook Islands, February 2005 (Terry and Falkland, 2010); 10. Vanuatu, February

2004 (Richmond and Sovacool, 2012); 11. 12. 13. Tuamotu Islands, French Polynesia, 1982–1983 (Dupon, 1987); 14. Grenada, September 2004 (OECS, 2004); 15. Grenada,

September 2004 (OECS, 2004); Tubuai, Austral Islands, French Polynesia, February 2010 (Etienne, 2012); 16. Vanuatu, February 2004 (Richmond and Sovacool, 2012);

Guadeloupe Island, October 2008 (Dorville and Zahibo, 2010); 17. Bora Bora, Raiatea, Maupiti, Tahaa, Huahine, Society Islands, February 2010 (Etienne, 2012); 18. Vanuatu,

February 2004 (Richmond and Sovacool, 2012); 19. Tuamotu, French Polynesia, 1982–1983 (Dupon, 1987).

Examples of ETC impacts on small island coasts (with reference):

1. Maldives, April 1987 (Harangozo, 1992); 2. Maldives, January 1955 (Maniku, 1990); 3. Maldives, April 1987 (Harangozo, 1992); 9. Solomon Islands, December 2008 (Hoeke

et al., 2013); 10. Chuck, Pohnpei, Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia, December 2008 (Hoeke et al., 2013); 15. Majuro, Marshall Islands, November 1979 (Hoeke et al.,

2013); 16. Coral Coast, Viti Levu, Fiji, May 2011 (Hoeke et al., 2013); 17. Majuro, Kwajalein, Arno, Marshall Islands, December 2008 (Hoeke et al., 2013); 18. Bismark

Archipelago, Papua New Guinea, December 2008 (Hoeke et al., 2013).

Small Islands Chapter 29

1633

29.5.2. Transcontinental Dust Clouds and Their Impact

The transport of airborne Saharan dust across the Atlantic and into the

Caribbean has engaged the attention of researchers for some time. The

resulting dust clouds are known to carry pollen, microbes, insects,

bacteria, fungal spores, and various chemicals and pesticides (Prospero

t al., 2005; Garrison et al., 2006; Middleton et al., 2008; Monteil, 2008;

López-Villarrubia et al., 2010). During major events, dust concentrations

can exceed 100 μg m

–3

(Prospero, 2006). Independent studies using

different methodologies have all found a strong positive correlation

between dust levels in the Caribbean and periods of drought in the

Sahara, while concentrations show a marked decrease during periods

of higher rainfall. Consequently, it is argued that higher dust emissions

due to increasing aridity in the Sahel and other arid areas could enhance

climate change effects over large areas, including the eastern Caribbean

and the Mediterranean (Prospero and Lamb, 2003). Similar findings

have been reported at Cape Verde where dust emission levels were

found to be a factor of nine lower during the decade of the 1950s when

rainfall was at or above normal, compared to the 1980s, a period of

intense drought in the Sahel region (Nicoll et al., 2011). Dust from the

Sahara has also reached the eastern Mediterranean (e.g., Santese et al.,

2010) whilst dust from Asia has been transported across the Pacific and

Atlantic Oceans and around the world (Uno et al., 2009).

There is also evidence that the transboundary movement of Saharan

dust into the island regions of the Caribbean, Pacific, and Mediterranean

is associated with various human health problems (Griffin, 2007) including

asthma admissions in the Caribbean (Monteil, 2008; Prospero et al.,

2008; Monteil and Antoine, 2009) and cardiovascular morbidity in Cyprus

in the Mediterranean (Middleton et al., 2008), and is found to be a risk

factor in respiratory and obstructive pulmonary disease in the Cape

Verde islands (Martins et al., 2009). These findings underscore the need

for further research into the link among climate change, airborne

aerosols, and human health in localities such as oceanic islands far

distant from the continental source of the particulates.

29.5.3. Movement and Impact of Introduced

and Invasive Species across Boundaries

Invasive species are colonizer species that establish populations outside

their normal distribution ranges. The spread of invasive alien species

is regarded as a significant transboundary threat to the health of

biodiversity and ecosystems, and has emerged as a major factor in

species decline, extinction, and loss of biodiversity goods and services

worldwide. This is particularly true of islands, where both endemicity

and vulnerability to introduced species tend to be high (Reaser et al.,

2007; Westphal et al., 2008; Kenis et al., 2009; Rocha et al., 2009; Kueffer

et al., 2010). The extent to which alien invasive species successfully

establish themselves at new locations in a changing climate will be

dependent on many variables, but non-climate factors such as ease of

access to migration pathways, suitability of the destination, ability to

compete and adapt to new environments, and susceptibility to invasion

of host ecosystems are deemed to be critical. This is borne out, for example,

by Le Roux et al. (2008), who studied the effect of the invasive weed

Miconia calvescens in New Caledonia, Society Islands, and Marquesas

Islands; by Gillespie et al. (2008) in an analysis of the spread of Leucaena

leucocephala, Miconia calvescens, Psidium sp., and Schinus terebinthifolius

in the Hawaiian Islands; and by Christenhusz and Toivonen (2008), who

showed the potential for rapid spread and establishment of the oriental

vessel fern, Angiopteris evecta, from the South Pacific throughout the

tropics. Mutualism between an invasive ant and locally honeydew-

producing insects has been strongly associated with damage to the

native and functionally important tree species Pisonia grandis on Cousine

Island, Seychelles (Gaigher et al., 2011).

hile invasive alien species constitute a major threat to biodiversity in

small islands, the removal of such species can result in recovery and

return of species richness. This has been demonstrated in Mauritius by

Baider and Florens (2011), where some forested areas were weeded of

alien plants and after a decade the forest had recovered close to its initial

condition. They concluded, given the severity of alien plant invasion in

Mauritius, that their example can “be seen as a relevant model for a

whole swath of other island nations and territories around the world

particularly in the Pacific and Indian Oceans” (Baider and Florens, 2011,

p. 2645).

The movement of aquatic and terrestrial invasive fauna within and across

regions will almost certainly exacerbate the threat posed by climate

change in island regions, and could impose significant environmental,

economic, and social costs. Recent research has shown that the invasion

of the Caribbean Sea by the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans), a

highly efficient and successful predator, is a major contributor to observed

increases in algal dominance in coral and sponge communities in the

Bahamas and elsewhere in the region. The consequential damage to these

ecosystems has been attributed to a significant decline in herbivores due

to predation by lionfish (Albins and Hixon, 2008; Schofield, 2010; Green

et al., 2011; Lesser and Slattery, 2011). Although there is no evidence

that the lionfish invasion is climate-related, the concern is that when

combined with preexisting stress factors the natural resilience of

Caribbean reef communities will decrease (Green et al., 2012; Albins

and Hixon, 2013), making them more susceptible to climate change

effects such as bleaching. Englund (2008) has documented the negative

effects of invasive species on native aquatic insects on Hawaii and

French Polynesia, and their potential role in the extirpation of native

aquatic invertebrates in the Pacific. Similarly, there is evidence that on

the island of Oahu introduced slugs appear to be “skewing species

abundance in favour of certain non-native and native plants,” by altering

the “rank order of seedling survival rates,” thereby undermining the

ability of preferred species (e.g., the endangered C. superba) to compete

effectively (Joe and Daehler, 2008, p. 253).

29.5.4. Spread of Aquatic Pathogens within Island Regions

The mass mortality of the black sea urchin, Diadema antillarum, in the

Caribbean basin during the early 1980s demonstrates the ease with

which ecological threats in one part of a region can be disseminated to

other jurisdictions thousands of kilometers away. The die-off was first

observed in the waters off Panama around January 1983, and within

13 months the disease epidemic had spread rapidly through the

Caribbean Sea, affecting practically all island reefs, as far away as

Tobago some 2000 km to the south and Bermuda some 4000 km to the

east. The diadema population in the wider Caribbean declined by more

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1634

than 93% as a consequence of this single episode (Lessios, 1988, 1995)

As D. antillarum is one of the principal grazers that removes macroalgae

from reefs and thus promotes juvenile coral recruitment, the collateral

damage was severe, as the region’s corals suffered from high morbidity

and mortality for decades thereafter (Carpenter and Edmunds, 2006;

Idjadi et al., 2010).

There are other climate-sensitive diseases such as yellow, white, and

black band; white plague; and white pox that travel across national

oundaries and infect coral reefs directly. This is variously supported by

examples from the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean relating to the role of

bacterial infections in white syndrome and yellow band disease (Piskorska

et al., 2007; Cervino et al., 2008); the impact of microbial pathogens as

stressors on benthic communities in the Mediterranean associated with

warming seawater (Danovaro et al., 2009); and an increasing evidence

of white, yellow, and black band disease associated with Caribbean

and Atlantic reefs (Brandt and McManus, 2009; Miller, J. et al., 2009;

Rosenberg et al., 2009; Weil and Croquer, 2009; Weil and Rogers, 2011).

29.5.5. Transboundary Movements and Human Health

For island communities the transboundary implications of existing and

future human health challenges are projected to increase in a changing

climate. For instance, the aggressive spread of the invasive giant African

snail, Achatina fulica, throughout the Caribbean, Indo-Pacific Islands,

and Hawaii is not only assessed to be a severe threat to native snails

and other fauna (e.g., native gastropods), flora, and crop agriculture,

but is also identified as a vector for certain human diseases such as

meningitis (Reaser et al., 2007; Meyer et al., 2008; Thiengo et al., 2010).

Like other aquatic pathogens, ciguatoxins that cause ciguatera fish

poisoning may be readily dispersed by currents across and within

boundaries in tropical and subtropical waters. Ciguatoxins are known

to be highly temperature-sensitive and may flourish when certain

seawater temperature thresholds are reached, as has been noted in the

South Pacific (Llewellyn, 2010), Cook Islands (Rongo and van Woesik,

2011), Kiribati (Chan et al., 2011), the Caribbean and Atlantic (Otero et

al., 2010; Tester et al., 2010), and Mediterranean (Aligizaki and

Nikolaidis, 2008; see also Section 29.3.3.2).

29.6. Adaptation and Management of Risks

Islands face risks from both climate-related hazards that have occurred

for centuries, as well as new risks from climate change. There have been

extensive studies of the risks associated with past climate-related

azards and adaptations to these, such as tropical cyclones, drought,

and disease, and their attendant impacts on human health, tourism,

fisheries, and other areas (Bijlsma et al., 1996; Cronk 1997; Solomon

and Forbes 1999; Pelling and Uitto 2001). There have also been many

studies that have used a variety of vulnerability, risk, and adaptation

assessment methods particularly in the Pacific that have recently been

summarized by Hay et al. (2013). But for most islands, there is very little

published literature documenting the probability, frequency, severity,

or consequences of climate change risks such as SLR, ocean acidification,

and salinization of freshwater resources—or associated adaptation

measures. Projections of future climate change risks are limited by the

lack of model skill in projecting the climatic variables that matter to

small islands, notably tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, wind

speed and direction, precipitation, sea level, ocean temperature, and

ocean acidification (Brown et al., 2013b); inadequate projections of

regional sea levels (Willis and Church, 2012); and a lack of long-term

baseline monitoring of changes in climatic risk, or to ground-truth

models (Voccia, 2012), such as risk of saline intrusion, risk of invasive

species, risk of biodiversity loss, or risk of large ocean waves. In their

absence, qualitative studies have documented perceptions of change

in current risks (Fazey et al., 2011; Lata and Nunn, 2012), reviewed

effective coping mechanisms for current stressors (Bunce et al., 2009;

Campbell et al., 2011) and have considered future scenarios of change

(Weir and Virani, 2011). These studies highlight that change is occurring,

but they do not quantify the probability, speed, scale, or distribution of

future climate risks. The lack of quantitative published assessments of

climate risk for many small islands means that future adaptation decisions

have to rely on analogs of responses to past and present weather

extremes and climate variability, or assumed/hypothesized impacts of

Island type and size Island elevation, slope, rainfall Implications for hazard

Continental

• Large

• High biodiversity

• Well-developed soils

• High elevations

• River ﬂ ood plains

• Orographic rainfall

River ﬂ ooding more likely to be a problem than

in other island types. In Papua New Guinea, high

elevations expose areas to frost (extreme during

El Niño).

Volcanic high islands

• Relatively small land area

• Barrier reefs

• Different stages of erosion

• Steep slopes

• Less well-developed river systems

• Orographic rainfall

Because of size, few areas are not exposed to

tropical cyclones. Streams and rivers are subject to

ﬂ ash ﬂ ooding. Barrier reefs may ameliorate storm

surge.

Atolls

• Very small land area

• Small islets surround a lagoon

• Larger islets on windward side

• Shore platform on windward side

• No or minimal soil

• Very low elevations

• Convectional rainfall

• No surface (fresh) water

• Ghyben – Herzberg (freshwater) lens

Exposed to storm surge, “king” tides, and

high waves. Narrow resource base. Exposed to

freshwater shortages and drought. Water problems

may lead to health hazards.

Raised limestone islands

• Concave inner basin

• Narrow coastal plains

• No or minimal soil

• Steep outer slopes

• Sharp karst topography

• No surface water

Depending on height, may be exposed to storm

surge. Exposed to freshwater shortages and

drought. Water problems may lead to health

hazards.

Table 29-3 | Types of island in the Paciﬁ c region and implications for hydro-meteorological hazards (after Campbell, 2009).

Small Islands Chapter 29

1635

climate change based on island type (see Table 29-3). Differences in

island type and differences in exposure to climate forcing and hazards

vary with island form, providing a framework for consideration of

vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Place-based understanding of

island landscapes and of processes operating on individual islands is

critical (Forbes et al., 2013).

29.6.1. Addressing Current Vulnerabilities on Small Islands

Islands are heterogeneous in geomorphology, culture, ecosystems,

populations, and hence also in their vulnerability to climate change.

Vulnerabilities and adaptation needs are as diverse as the variety of

islands between regions and even within nation states (e.g., in Solomon

Islands; Rasmussen et al., 2011), often with little climate adaptation

occurring in peripheral islands, for example, in parts of the Pacific (Nunn

et al., 2013). Quantitative comparison of vulnerability is difficult owing

to the paucity of vulnerability indicators. Generic indices of national

level vulnerability continue to emerge (Cardona, 2007) but only a

minority are focused on small islands (e.g., Blancard and Hoarau, 2013).

The island-specific indicators that exist often suffer from lack of data

(Peduzzi et al., 2009; Hughes et al., 2012), use indicators that are not

relevant in all islands (Barnett and Campbell, 2010), or use data of limited

quality for islands, such as SLR (as used in Wheeler, 2011). As a result

indicators of vulnerability for small islands often misrepresent actual

vulnerability. Recent moves toward participatory approaches that link

scientific knowledge with local visions of vulnerability (see Park et al., 2012)

offer an important way forward to understanding island vulnerability in

the absence of certainty in model-based scenarios.

Island vulnerability is often a function of four key stressors: physical,

socioeconomic, socio-ecological, and climate-induced, whose reinforcing

mechanisms are important in determining the magnitude of impacts.

Geophysical characteristics of islands (see Table 29-2; Figure 29-1)

create inherent physical vulnerabilities. Thus, for example the Azores

(Portugal) face seismic, landslide, and tsunami risks (Coutinho et al.,

2009). Socioeconomic vulnerabilities are related to ongoing challenges

of managing urbanization, pollution, and sanitation, both in small island

states and non-sovereign islands as highlighted by Storey and Hunter

(

2010) in Kiribati, López-Marrero and Yarnal (2010) in Puerto Rico, and

in Mayotte, France (Le Masson and Kelman, 2011). Socio-ecological

stresses, such as habitat loss and degradation, invasive species

(described in Sax and Gaines, 2008), overexploitation, pollution, human

encroachment, and disease can harm biodiversity (Kingsford et al., 2009;

Caujape-Castells et al., 2010), and reduce the ability of socio-ecological

systems to bounce back after shocks.

To understand climate vulnerability on islands, it is necessary to assess

all of these dimensions of vulnerability (Rasmussen et al., 2011). For

example, with individual ecosystems such as coral reef ecosystems,

those already under stress from non-climate factors are more at risk

from climate change than those that are unstressed (Hughes et al.,

2003; Maina et al., 2011). Evidence is starting to emerge that shows

the same applies at the island scale. In Majuro atoll (Marshall Islands),

34 to 37 years of aerial photography shows that socio-ecological stress

is exacerbating shoreline change associated with SLR, especially on the

lagoon side of islands (Ford, 2012; see also Section 29.3.1.1). Islands

faced with multiple stressors can therefore be assumed to be more at

risk from climate impacts.

Key risk Adaptation issues & prospects

Climatic

drivers

Risk & potential for

adaptation

Timeframe

Sea surface

temperature

Damaging

cyclone

Ocean

acidiﬁcation

Climate-related drivers of impacts

Warming

trend

Extreme

precipitation

Extreme

temperature

Sea

level

Level of risk & potential for adaptation

Potential for additional adaptation

to reduce risk

Risk level with

current adaptation

Risk level with

high adaptation

Drying

trend

Table 29-4 | Selected key risks and potential for adaptation for small islands from the present day to the long term.

Near term

(2030–2040)

Present

Long term

(2080–2100)

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Near term

(2030–2040)

Present

Long term

(2080–2100)

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Loss of livelihoods, coastal settlements,

infrastructure, ecosystem services, and

economic stability (high conﬁdence)

[29.6, 29.8, Figure 29-4]

• Signiﬁcant potential exists for adaptation in islands, but additional external

resources and technologies will enhance response.

• Maintenance and enhancement of ecosystem functions and services and of

water and food security

• Efﬁcacy of traditional community coping strategies is expected to be

substantially reduced in the future.

The interaction of rising global mean sea level

in the 21st century with high-water-level

events will threaten low-lying coastal areas

(high conﬁdence)

[29.4, Table 29-1; WGI AR5 13.5, Table 13.5]

• High ratio of coastal area to land mass will make adaptation a signiﬁcant

ﬁnancial and resource challenge for islands.

• Adaptation options include maintenance and restoration of coastal

landforms and ecosystems, improved management of soils and freshwater

resources, and appropriate building codes and settlement patterns.

Near term

(2030–2040)

Present

Long term

(2080–2100)

2°C

4°C

Very

low

Very

high

Medium

Decline and possible loss of coral reef

ecosystems in small islands through thermal

stress (high conﬁdence)

[29.3.1.2]

Limited coral reef adaptation responses; however, minimizing the negative

impact of anthrogopenic stresses (ie: water quality change, destructive ﬁshing

practices) may increase resilience.

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1636

Despite the limited ability of continental scale models to predict climate

risks for specific islands, or the limited capacity of island vulnerability

indicators, scenario based damage assessments can be undertaken.

Storm surge risks have been effectively modeled for the Andaman and

Nicobar Islands (Kumar et al., 2008). Rainfall-induced landslide risk

maps have been produced for both Jamaica (Miller, S. et al., 2009) and

the Chuuk Islands (Federated States of Micronesia; Harp et al., 2009).

However, the probability of change in frequency and severity of extreme

rainfall events and storm surges remains poorly understood for most small

slands. Other risks, such as the climate change-driven health risks from

the spread of infectious disease, loss of settlements and infrastructure,

and decline of ecosystems that affect island economies, livelihoods, and

human well-being also remain under-researched. Nevertheless, it is

possible to consider these risks along with the threat of rising sea level

and suggest a range of contemporary and future adaptation issues and

prospects for small islands (see Table 29-4).

29.6.2. Practical Experiences of

Adaptation on Small Islands

There is disagreement about whether islands and islanders have

successfully adapted to past weather variability and climate change.

Nunn (2007) argues that past climate changes have had a “crisis effect”

on prehistoric societies in much of the Pacific Basin. In contrast, a variety

of studies argue that past experiences of hydro-meteorological extreme

events have enabled islands to become resilient to weather extremes

(Barnett, 2001). Resilience appears to come from both a belief in their

own capacity (Adger and Brown, 2009; Kuruppu and Liverman, 2011),

and a familiarity with their environment and understanding of what

is needed to adapt (Tompkins et al., 2009; Le Masson and Kelman,

2011). For example, compared to communities in the larger countries

of Madagascar, Tanzania, and Kenya, the Indian Ocean islands (Seychelles

and Mauritius) were found to have: comparatively high capacity to

anticipate change and prepare strategies; self-awareness of human

impact on environment; willingness to change occupation; livelihood

diversity; social capital; material assets; and access to technology and

nfrastructure—all of which produced high adaptive capacity (Cinner et

al., 2012). Despite this resilience, islands are assumed to be generically

vulnerable to long term future climate change (Myers, 2002; Parks and

Roberts, 2006).

There are many ways in which in situ climate adaptation can be

undertaken: reducing socioeconomic vulnerabilities, building adaptive

capacity, enhancing disaster risk reduction, or building longer term

climate resilience (e.g., see McGray et al., 2007; Eakin et al., 2009).

Figure 29-5 highlights the implications of the various options. Not all

adaptations are equally appropriate in all contexts. Understanding the

baseline conditions and stresses (both climate and other) are important

in understanding which climate change adaptation option will generate

the greatest benefits. On small islands where resources are often limited,

recognizing the starting point for action is critical to maximizing the

benefits from adaptation. The following section considers the benefits

of pursuing the various options.

29.6.2.1. Building Adaptive Capacity with Traditional Knowledge,

Technologies, and Skills on Small Islands

As in previous IPCC assessments, there is continuing strong support for

the incorporation of indigenous knowledge into adaptation planning.

However, this is moderated by the recognition that current practices

alone may not be adequate to cope with future climate extremes or

trend changes. The ability of a small island population to deal with

current climate risks may be positively correlated with the ability to

adapt to future climate change, but evidence confirming this remains

limited (such as Lefale, 2010). Consequently, this section focuses on

evidence for adaptive capacity that reduces vulnerability to existing

stressors, enables adaptation to current stresses, and supports current

disaster risk management.

Traditional knowledge has proven to be useful in short-term weather

forecasting (e.g., Lefale, 2010) although evidence is inconclusive on

local capacity to observe long-term climate change (e.g., Hornidge and

Scholtes, 2011). In Solomon Islands, Lauer and Aswani (2010) found

mixed ability to detect change in spatial cover of seagrass meadows.

In Jamaica, Gamble et al. (2010) reported a high level of agreement

between farmers’ perception of increasing drought incidence and

statistical analysis of precipitation and vegetation data for the area. In

this case farmers’ perceptions clearly validated the observational data

and vice versa. Despite some claims that vulnerability reduction in

indigenous communities in small islands may be best tackled by

combining indigenous and Western knowledge in a culturally compatible

and sustainable manner (Mercer et al., 2007), given the small number

of studies in this area, there is not sufficient evidence to determine the

Islands with high

socioeconomic

vulnerability that

have implemented

effective climate

adaptation (Section

29.6.2.3)

Islands experiencing climate stress that

are undertaking effective adaptation, e.g.,

through risk transfer or risk spreading, and

vulnerability reduction (Section 29.6.2)

Islands with increasing

climate stress and

some socioeconomic

stress with ineffective

or no policy in both

areas (Sections 29.6.1,

29.6.3)

Filled shapes, on a common climate stress baseline, indicate

before policy intervention or before change in stress.

Index of socioeconomic stressors

Index of climate stressors

High

Island vulnerability

Low

HighLow

Investment in effective adaptation

Investment in effective vulnerability reduction

HighVery High Medium Low

Figure 29-5 | The impact of alternative climate change adaptation actions or policies.

Small Islands Chapter 29

1637

effectiveness and limits to the use of traditional methods of weather

forecasting under climate change on small islands.

Traditional technologies and skills can be effective for current disaster

risk management but there is currently a lack of supporting evidence

to suggest that they will be equally appropriate under changing cultural

conditions and future climate changes on islands. Campbell (2009)

identified that traditional disaster reduction measures used in Pacific

islands focused around maintaining food security, building community

ooperation, and protecting settlements and inhabitants. Examples of

actions to maintain food security include: the production and storage

of food surpluses, such as yam and breadfruit buried in leaf-lined pits

to ferment; high levels of agricultural diversity to minimize specific

damage to any one crop; and the growth of robust famine crops, unused

in times of plenty that could be used in emergencies (Campbell, 2009).

Two discrete studies from Solomon Islands highlight the importance of

traditional patterns of social organization within communities to support

food security under social and environmental change (Reenberg et al.,

2008; Mertz et al., 2010). In both studies the strategy of relying on

traditional systems of organization for farming and land use management

have been shown to work effectively—largely as there has been little

cultural and demographic change. Nonetheless there are physical and

cultural limits to traditional disaster risk management. In relation to the

ability to store surplus production on atoll islands, on Rongelap in the

Marshall Islands, surpluses are avoided, or are redistributed to support

community bonds (Bridges and McClatchey, 2009). Further, traditional

approaches that Pacific island communities have used for survival for

millennia (such as building elevated settlements and resilient structures,

and working collectively) have been abandoned or forgotten due to

processes of globalization, colonialism, and development (Campbell,

2009). Ongoing processes of rapid urbanization and loss of language

and tradition suggest that traditional approaches may not always be

efficacious in longer term adaptation.

Traditional construction methods have long been identified across the

Pacific as a means of reducing vulnerability to tropical cyclones and

floods in rural areas. In Solomon Islands traditional practices include:

elevating concrete floors on Ontong Java to keep floors dry during heavy

rainfall events; building low, aerodynamic houses with sago palm leaves

as roofing material on Tikopia as preparedness for tropical cyclones; and

in Bellona local perceptions are that houses constructed from modern

materials and practices are more easily destroyed by tropical cyclones,

implying that traditional construction methods are perceived to be more

resilient in the face of extreme weather (Rasmussen et al., 2009). In

parallel, Campbell (2009) documents the characteristics of traditional

building styles (in Fiji, Samoa, and Tonga) where relatively steep hipped

roofs, well bound connections and joints, and airtight spaces with few

windows or doors offer some degree of wind resistance. Traditional

building measures can also reduce damages associated with earthquakes,

as evidenced in Haiti (Audefroy, 2011). By reducing damage caused by

other stresses (such as earthquakes), adaptive capacity is more likely

to be maintained. The quality of home construction is critical to its wind

resistance. If inadequately detailed, home construction will fail irrespective

of method. Although some traditional measures could be challenged as

potentially risky—for example, using palm leaves, rather than metal

roofs as a preparation for tropical cyclone impacts—the documentation

of traditional approaches, with an evaluation of their effectiveness

remains urgently needed. Squatter settlements in urban areas, especially

on steep hillsides in the Caribbean, often use poor construction practices

frequently driven by poverty and inadequate building code enforcement

(Prevatt et al., 2010).

Traditional systems appear less effective when multiple civilization-

nature stresses are introduced. For example, in Reunion and Mayotte,

population growth, and consequent rises in land and house prices, have

led low-income families to settle closer to hazardous slopes that are

rone to landslides and to river banks which are prone to flooding (Le

Masson and Kelman, 2011). Traditional belief systems can also limit

adaptive capacity. Thus, for example, in two Fijian villages, approximately

half of survey respondents identified divine will as the cause of climate

change (Lata and Nunn, 2012). These findings reinforce earlier studies

in Tuvalu (Mortreux and Barnett, 2009), and more widely across the

Pacific (Barnett and Campbell, 2010). The importance of taking into

account local interests and traditional knowledge in adaptation in small

islands is emphasized by Kelman and West (2009) and McNamara and

Westoby (2011), yet evidence does not yet exist that reveals the limits

to such knowledge, such as in the context of rapid socio-ecological

change, or the impact of belief systems on adaptive capacity.

While there is clear evidence that traditional knowledge networks,

technologies, and skills can be used effectively to support adaptation

in certain contexts, the limits to these tools are not well understood.

To date research in the Pacific and Caribbean dominates small island

climate change work. More detailed studies on small islands in the

central and western Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, and the central

and eastern Atlantic would improve understanding on this topic.

29.6.2.2. Addressing Risks on Small Islands

Relative to other areas, small islands are disproportionately affected by

current hydro-meteorological extreme events, both in terms of the

percentage of the population affected and losses as a percentage of GDP

(Anthoff et al., 2010; Table 29-5). Under climate change the risks of

damage and associated losses are expected to continue to rise (Nicholls

and Cazenave, 2010). Yet much of the existing literature on climate risk

in small islands does not consider how to address high future risks, but

instead focuses on managing present-day risks through risk transfer,

risk spreading, or risk avoidance. Risk transfer is largely undertaken

through insurance; risk spreading through access to and use of common

property resources, livelihood diversification, or mutual support through

networks (see Section 29.6.2.3); and risk avoidance through structural

engineering measures or migration (see Section 29.6.2.4).

Risk transfer through insurance markets has had limited uptake in small

islands, as insurance markets do not function as effectively as they do

in larger locations, in part owing to a small demand for the insurance

products (Heger et al., 2008). In the case of insurance for farmers,

researchers found that a lack of demand for insurance products (in their

study countries: Grenada, Jamaica, Fiji, and Vanuatu) meant an under-

supply of customized food insurance products, which in turn contributed

to a lack of demand for insurance (Angelucci and Conforti, 2010).

Alternatives exist such as index-based schemes that provide payouts

based on the crossing of a physical threshold, for example, when rainfall

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1638

drops below a certain level, rather than on drought damage sustained

(Linnerooth-Bayer and Mechler, 2009). The potential for index-based

insurance for climate stressors on islands is under-researched and there

remains limited evidence of the long-term effectiveness of index-based

or pooled-risk insurance in supporting household level adaptation. Small

island governments also face expensive climate risk insurance. The

Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), which has been

operating since 2007, pools Caribbean-wide country-level risks into a

central, more diversified risk portfolio—offering lower premiums for

participating national governments (CCRIF, 2008). The potential for a

similar scheme in the Pacific is being explored (ADB, 2009; Cummins

and Mahul, 2009).

Risk can be spread socially, for example, through social networks and

familial ties (see also Section 29.6.2.3), or ecologically, for example, by

changing resource management approach. Social networks can be used

to spread risk among households. In Fiji, after Tropical Cyclone Ami in 2003,

households whose homes were not affected by the cyclone increased their

fishing effort to support those whose homes were damaged (Takasaki,

2011)—mutual support formed a central pillar for community-based

adaptation. In the case of natural systems, risks can be spread through

enhancing representation of habitat types and replication of species,

for example, through the creation of marine protected areas, around

key refuges that protect a diversity of habitat, that cover an adequate

proportion of the habitat and that protect critical areas such as nursery

grounds and fish spawning aggregation areas (McLeod et al., 2009).

Locally Managed Marine Areas—which involve the local community in

the management and protection of their local marine environment—

have proven to be effective in increasing biodiversity, and in reducing

poverty in areas dependent on marine resources in several Pacific islands

(Techera, 2008; Game et al., 2011). By creating a network of protected

areas supported by local communities the risks associated with some

forms of climate change can be spread and potentially reduced (Mills

et al., 2010) although such initiatives may not preserve thermally

sensitive corals in the face of rising SST.

Risk avoidance through engineered structures can reduce risk from

some climate-related hazards (medium evidence, medium agreement).

In Jamaica, recommendations to reduce rainfall-driven land surface

movements resulting in landslides include: engineering structures such

as soil nailing, gabion baskets (i.e., cages filled with rocks), rip rapped

surfaces (i.e., permanent cover with rock), and retaining walls together

with engineered drainage systems (Miller, S. et al., 2009). Engineering

principles to reduce residential damage from hurricanes have been

identified, tested, and recommended for decades in the Caribbean.

However, expected levels of success have often not been achieved

owing to inadequate training of construction workers, minimal inspection

of new buildings, and lack of enforcement of building code requirements

(Prevatt et al., 2010). Some island states do not even have the technical

or financial capacity to build effective shore protection structures, as

highlighted by a recent assessment in south Tarawa, Kiribati (Duvat,

2013).

In addition, not all engineered structures are seen as effective risk

avoidance mechanisms. In the Azores archipelago, a proliferation of

permanent engineered structures along the coastline to prevent erosion

have resulted in a loss of natural shoreline protection against wave

erosion (Calado et al., 2011). In Barbados it is recognized that seawalls

can protect human assets in areas prone to high levels of erosion;

however, they can also cause sediment starvation in other areas, interfere

with natural processes of habitat migration, and cause coastal squeeze,

which may render them less desirable for long-term adaptation (Mycoo

and Chadwick, 2012; see also Section 5.4.2.1). To reduce erosion risk

an approach with less detrimental downstream effects that also

supports tourism is beach nourishment. This is increasingly being

recommended, for example, in the Caribbean (Mycoo and Chadwick,

2012), the Mediterranean (Anagnostou et al., 2011), and western Indian

Ocean (Duvat, 2009). Beach nourishment, however, is not without its

challenges, as requirements such as site-specific oceanographic and

wave climate data, adequate sand resources, and critical engineering

design skills may not be readily available in some small islands.

29.6.2.3. Working Collectively to Address

Climate Impacts on Small Islands

More attention is being focused on the relevance and application of

community-based adaptation (CBA) principles to island communities,

Rank

Absolute exposure

(millions affected)

Relative exposure

(% of population affected)

Absolute GDP loss

(US$ billions)

Loss

(% of GDP)

1 Japan (30.9) Northern Mariana Islands (58.2) Japan (1,226.7) Northern Mariana Islands (59.4)

Philippines (12.1) Niue (25.4) Republic of Korea (35.6) Vanuatu (27.1)

China (11.1) Japan (24.2) China (28.5) Niue (24.9)

India (10.7) Philippines (23.6) Philippines (24.3) Fiji (24.1)

5 Bangladesh (7.5) Fiji (23.1) Hong Kong (13.3) Japan (23.9)

Republic of Korea (2.4) Samoa (21.4) India (8.0) Philippines (23.9)

7 Myanmar (1.2) New Caledonia (20.7) Bangladesh (3.9) New Caledonia (22.4)

Vietnam (0.8) Vanuatu (18.3) Northern Mariana Islands (1.5) Samoa (19.2)

9 Hong Kong (0.4) Tonga (18.1) Australia (0.8) Tonga (17.4)

10 Pakistan (0.3) Cook Islands (10.5) New Caledonia (0.7) Bangladesh (5.9)

Table 29-5 | Top ten countries in the Asia–Paciﬁ c region based on absolute and relative physical exposure to storms and impact on GDP (between 1998 and 2009; after Tables

1.10 and 1.11 of ESCAP and UNISDR, 2010).

Note: Small islands are highlighted in yellow.

Small Islands Chapter 29

1639

to facilitate adaptation planning and implementation (Warrick, 2009;

Kelman et al., 2011) and to tackle rural poverty in resource-dependent

communities (Techera, 2008). CBA research is focusing on empowerment

that helps people to help themselves, for example, through marine

catch monitoring (Breckwoldt and Seidel, 2012), while addressing local

priorities and building on local knowledge and capacity. This approach

to adaptation is being promoted as an appropriate strategy for small

islands, as it is something done “with” rather than “to” communities

(Warrick, 2009). Nonetheless externally driven programs to encourage

ommunity-level action have produced some evidence of effective

adaptation. Both Limalevu et al. (2010) and Dumaru (2010) describe the

outcomes of externally led pilot CBA projects (addressing water security

and coastal management) implemented in villages across Fiji, notably

more effective management of local water resources through capacity

building; enhanced knowledge of climate change; and the establishment

of mechanisms to facilitate greater access to technical and financial

resources from outside the community. More long-term monitoring and

evaluation of the effectiveness of community level action is needed.

Collaboration between stakeholders can lessen the occurrence of simple

mistakes that can reduce the effectiveness of adaptation actions (medium

evidence, medium agreement). Evidence from the eastern Caribbean

suggests that adaptations taken by individual households to reduce

landslide risk—building simple retaining walls—can be ineffective

compared to community-level responses (Anderson et al., 2011).

Landslide risk can be significantly reduced through better hillside

drainage. In the eastern Caribbean, community groups, with input from

engineers, have constructed these networks of drains to capture surface

runoff, household roof water, and gray water. Case studies from Fiji and

Samoa in which multi-stakeholder and multi-sector participatory

approaches were used to help enhance resilience of local residents to

the adverse impacts of disasters and climate change (Gero et al., 2011)

further support this view. In the case of community-based disaster risk

reduction (CBDRR), Pelling (2011) notes that buy-in from local and

municipal governments is needed, as well as strong preexisting

relationships founded on routine daily activities, to make CBDRR effective.

Research from both Solomon Islands and the Cayman Islands reinforce

the conclusion that drivers of community resilience to hazard maps

closely onto factors driving successful governance of the commons, that

is, community cohesion, effective leadership, and community buy-in to

collective action (Tompkins et al., 2008; Schwarz et al., 2011). Where

community organizations are operating in isolation, or where there is

limited coordination and collaboration, community vulnerability is

expected to increase (Ferdinand et al., 2012). Strong local networks,

and trusting relationships between communities and government,

appear to be key elements in adaptation, in terms of maintaining

sustainable agriculture and in disaster risk management (medium

evidence, high agreement).

All of these studies reinforce the earlier work of Barnett (2001), providing

empirical evidence that supporting community-led approaches to

disaster risk reduction and hazard management may contribute to

greater community engagement with anticipatory adaptation. However,

it is not yet possible to identify the extent to which climate resilience is

either a coincidental benefit of island lifestyle and culture, or a purposeful

approach, such as the community benefits gained from reciprocity

among kinship groups (Campbell, 2009).

29.6.2.4. Addressing Long-Term Climate Impacts

and Migration on Small Islands

SLR poses one of the most widely recognized climate change threats to

low-lying coastal areas on islands (Section 29.3.1). However, long-term

climate impacts depend on the type of island (see Figure 29-1) and the

daptation strategy adopted. Small island states have 16% of their land

area in low elevation coastal areas (<10 m) as opposed to a global

average of 2%, and the largest proportion of low-elevation coastal

urban land area: 13% (along with Australia and New Zealand), in

contrast to the global average of 8% (McGranahan et al., 2007).

Statistics like these underpin the widely held view about small islands

being “overwhelmed” by rising seas associated with SLR (Loughry and

McAdam, 2008; Laczko and Aghazarm, 2009; Yamamoto and Esteban,

2010; Berringer, 2012; Dema, 2012; Gordon-Clark, 2012; Lazrus, 2012).

Yet there remains limited evidence as to which regions (Caribbean,

Pacific and Indian Oceans, West African islands) will experience the

largest SLR (Willis and Church, 2012) and which islands will experience

the worst climate impacts. Nicholls et al. (2011) have modeled impacts

of 4°C warming, producing a 0.5 to 2.0 m SLR, to assess the impacts

on land loss and migration. With no adaptation occurring, they estimate

that this could produce displacement of between 1.2 and 2.2 million

people from the Caribbean and Indian and Pacific Oceans. More

research is needed to produce robust agreement on the impact of SLR

on small islands, and on the range of adaptation strategies that could

be appropriate for different island types under those scenarios. Research

into the possible un-inhabitability of islands has to be undertaken

sensitively to avoid short-term risks (i.e., to avoid depopulation and

ultimately island abandonment) associated with a loss of confidence in

an island’s future (McNamara and Gibson, 2009; McLeman, 2011).

Owing to the high costs of adapting on islands, it has been suggested

that there will be a need for migration (Biermann and Boas, 2010;

Gemenne, 2011; Nicholls et al., 2011; Voccia 2012). Relocation and

displacement are frequently cited as outcomes of SLR, salinization, and

land loss on islands (Byravan and Rajan, 2006; Kolmannskog and Trebbi,

2010; see also Section 29.3.3.3). Climate stress is occurring at the same

time as the growth in rural to urban migration. The latter is leading to

squatter settlements that strain urban infrastructure—notably sewerage,

waste management, transport, and electricity (Connell and Lea, 2002;

Jones, 2005). Urban squatters on islands often live in highly exposed

locations, lacking basic amenities, leaving them highly vulnerable to

climate risks (Baker, 2012). However, a lack of research in this area

makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions on the impact of climate

change on the growing number of urban migrants in islands.

Recent examples of environmental stress-driven relocation and

displacement provide contemporary analogs of climate-induced migration.

Evidence of post-natural disaster migration has been documented in

the Caribbean in relation to hurricanes (McLeman and Hunter, 2010)

and in the Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea, where during an

exceptionally high inundation event in 2008 (see Section 29.5.1.1)

islanders sought refuge on neighboring Bougainville Island (Jarvis, 2010).

Drawing any strong conclusions from this literature is challenging, as

there is little understanding of how to measure the effect of the

environmental signal in migration patterns (Krishnamurthy, 2012; Afifi

et al., 2013). Although the example of the Carteret Islands cannot be

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1640

described as evidence of adaptation to climate change, it suggests that

under some extreme scenarios island communities may need to

consider relocating in the future (Gemenne, 2011). In reality, financial

and legal barriers are expected to inhibit significant levels of

international environmentally induced migration in the Pacific (Barnett

and Chamberlain, 2010).

29.6.3. Barriers and Limits to Adaptation

in Small Island Settings

Since publication of the SAR in 1996, significant barriers to climate

change adaptation strategies in island settings have been discussed

in considerable detail. Barriers include inadequate access to financial,

technological, and human resources; issues related to cultural and social

acceptability of measures; constraints imposed by the existing political

and legal framework; the emphasis on island development as opposed

to sustainability; a tendency to focus on addressing short-term climate

variability rather than long-term climate change; and community

preferences for “hard” adaptation measures such as seawalls instead of

“soft” measures such as beach nourishment (Sovacool, 2012). Heger et

al. (2008) recognized that more diversified economies have more robust

responses to climate stress, yet most small islands lack economies of

scale in production, thus specializing in niche markets and developing

monocultures (e.g., sugar or bananas). Non-sovereign island states face

additional exogenous barriers to adaptation. For example, islands such

as Réunion and Mayotte benefit from the provision of social services

somewhat similar to what obtains in the Metropole, but not the level

of enforcement of building codes and land use planning as in France

(Le Masson and Kelman, 2011). Owing to their nature and complexity,

these constraints will not be easily eliminated in the short term and will

require ongoing attention if their impact is to be minimized over time.

Exogenous factors such as the comparatively few assessments of social

vulnerability to climate change, adaptation potential, or resilience for

island communities (Barnett, 2010) limit current understanding. In part

this is due to the particularities of islands—both their heterogeneity

and their difference from mainland locations—as well as the limitations

of climate models in delivering robust science for small islands. It

remains the case that, 13 years after Nurse et al. (2001) noted that

downscaled global climate models do not provide a complete or

necessarily accurate picture of climate vulnerabilities on islands, there

is still little climate impacts research that reflects local concerns and

contexts (Barnett et al., 2008).

Although lack of access to adequate financial, technological and human

resources is often cited as the most critical constraint, experience has

shown that endogenous factors such as culture, ethics, knowledge, and

attitudes to risk are important in constraining adaptation. Translating

the word “climate” into Marshallese implies cosmos, nature, and culture

as well as weather and climate (Rudiak-Gould, 2012). Such cultural

misunderstandings can create both barriers to action and novel ways

of engaging with climate change. The lack of local support (owing to

encroachment on traditional lands) for the development of new infiltration

galleries to augment freshwater supply on Tarawa atoll, Kiribati, highlights

the importance of social acceptability (Moglia et al., 2008a,b). Such

considerations have led to the conclusion that there is still much to be

learned about the drivers of past adaptation and how “mainstreaming”

into national programs and policies, widely acclaimed to be a virtually

indispensable strategy, can practically be achieved (Mercer et al., 2007;

Adger et al., 2009; Mertz et al., 2009).

Notwithstanding the extensive and ever-growing body of literature

on the subject, there is still a relatively low level of awareness and

understanding at the community level on many islands about the nature

of the threat posed by climate change (Nunn, 2009). Even where the

threat has been identified, it is often not considered an urgent issue,

r a local priority, as exemplified in Malta (Akerlof et al., 2010) and

Funafuti, Tuvalu (Mortreux and Barnett, 2009). Lack of awareness,

knowledge, and understanding can function as an effective barrier to

the implementation and ultimate success of adaptation programs.

This is borne out in both Fiji and Kiribati, where researchers found that

spiritual beliefs, traditional governance mechanisms, and a short-term

approach to planning were barriers to community engagement and

understanding of climate change (Kuruppu, 2009; Lata and Nunn, 2012).

Although widely acknowledged to be critical in small islands, few

initiatives pay little more than perfunctory attention to the importance of

awareness, knowledge, and understanding in climate change adaptation

planning. Hence, the renewed call for adaptation initiatives to include

and focus directly on these elements on an ongoing basis (e.g., Crump,

2008; Kelman and West, 2009; Kelman, 2010; Gero et al., 2011; Kuruppu

and Liverman, 2011) is timely, if these barriers are to be eventually

removed.

29.6.4. Mainstreaming and Integrating Climate Change

into Development Plans and Policies

There is a growing body of literature that discusses the benefits and

possibilities of mainstreaming or integrating climate change policies in

development plans. Various mechanisms through which development

agencies as well as donor and recipient countries can seek to capitalize

on the opportunities to mainstream are beginning to emerge (see, e.g.,

Klein et al., 2007; Mertz et al., 2009). Agrawala and van Aalst (2008)

provide examples, from Fiji and elsewhere, of where synergies (and

trade-offs) can be found in integrating adaptation to climate change

into development cooperation activities, notably in the areas of disaster

risk reduction, community-based approaches to development, and

building adaptive capacity. Boyd et al. (2009) support the need for more

rapid integration of adaptation into development planning, to ensure

that adaptation is not side-lined, or treated separately from sectoral

policies. Although there are synergies and benefits to be derived from

the integration of climate change and development policies, care is

needed to avoid institutional overlaps, and differences in language and

approach— which can give rise to conflict (Schipper and Pelling, 2006).

Overall, there appears to be an emerging consensus around the views

expressed by Swart and Raes (2007) that climate change and development

strategies should be considered as complementary, and that some

elements such as land and water management and urban, peri-urban,

and rural planning provide important adaptation, development, and

mitigation opportunities. Although the potential to deliver such an

integrated approach may be reasonably strong in urban centers on

islands, there appears to be limited capacity to mainstream climate

change adaptation into local decision making in out-lying islands or

peripheral areas (Nunn et al., 2013).

Small Islands Chapter 29

1641

29.7. Adaptation and Mitigation Interactions

GHG emissions from most small islands are negligible in relation to

global emissions, yet small islands will most probably be highly impacted

by climate change (Srinivasan, 2010). However, many small island

governments and communities have chosen to attempt to reduce their

GHG emissions because of the cost and the potential co-benefits and

synergies. Malta and Cyprus are obliged to do so in line with EU climate

and energy policies. This section considers some of the interlinkages

between adaptation and mitigation on small islands and the potential

synergies, conflicts, trade-offs, and risks. Unfortunately there is relatively

little research on the emissions reduction potential of small islands, and

far less on the interlinkages between climate change adaptation and

emissions reduction in small islands. Therefore in this section a number

of assumptions are made about how and where adaptation and

mitigation actions interact.

29.7.1. Assumptions/Uncertainties Associated

with Adaptation and Mitigation Responses

Small islands are not homogeneous. Rather they have diverse geophysical

characteristics and economic structures (see Table 29-2; Figure 29-1).

Following Nunn (2009), the combination of island geography and

economic types informs the extent to which adaptation and mitigation

actions might interact. The geography and location of islands affect their

sensitivity to hydro-meteorological and related hazards such as cyclones,

floods, droughts, invasive alien species, vector-borne disease, and

landslides. On the other hand, the capacity of island residents to cope

is often related to income levels, resources endowment, technology,

and knowledge (see Section 29.6.2).

The potential for mitigation and emissions reductions in islands depends

to a large extent on their size and stage of economic development. In

the small and less developed islands key “mitigation” sectors including

energy, transport, industry, built environment, agriculture, forestry, or

waste management sectors are generally relatively small (IPCC, 2007;

Swart and Raes, 2007). Hence opportunities for emissions reductions

are usually quite limited and are mostly associated with electricity

generation and utilization of vehicles. More mitigation opportunities

should exist in more economically advanced and larger islands that rely

on forms of production that utilize fossil fuels, including manufacturing,

and where vehicle usage is extensive and electricity-driven home

appliances, such as air conditioners and water heaters, are extensively

used.

In the absence of significant mitigation efforts at the global scale,

adaptation interventions could become very costly and difficult to

implement, once certain thresholds of change are reached (Birkmann,

2011; Nelson, 2011). Nicholls et al. (2011) make a similar observation

with respect to coastal protection as a response to SLR. They suggest

that if global mean temperatures increase by around 4°C (which

may lead to sea level rise between 0.5 m and 2 m) the likelihood of

successful coastal protection in some locations, such as low-lying small

islands, will be low. Consequently, it is argued that the relocation of

communities would be a likely outcome in such circumstances (Nicholls

et al., 2011).

29.7.2. Potential Synergies and Conflicts

IPCC (2007) suggest that adaptation and mitigation interactions occur

in one of four main ways: adaptations that result in GHG emissions

reduction; mitigation options that facilitate adaptation; policy decisions

that couple adaptation and mitigation effects; and trade-offs and

ynergies between adaptation and mitigation. Each of these opportunities

is considered using three examples: coastal forestry, energy supply, and

tourism.

Small islands have relatively large coastal zones (in comparison to

land area) and most development (as well as potential mitigation and

adaptation activities) are located in the coastal zone. Coastal ecosystems

(coral reefs, seagrasses, and mangroves) play an important role in

protecting coastal communities from wave erosion, tropical cyclones,

storm surges, and even moderate tsunami waves (Cochard et al., 2008).

Although coastal forests—including both endemic and exotic species,

especially mangroves—are seen as effective adaptation options

(“bioshields”; Feagin et al., 2010) in the coastal zones, they also play an

important role in mitigation as carbon sinks (van der Werf et al., 2009).

Thus, the management and conservation of mangrove forests has the

potential to generate synergies between climate change adaptation and

mitigation. However, despite this knowledge, population, development,

and agricultural pressures have constrained the expansion of island

forest carbon stocks (Fox et al., 2010) while Gilman et al. (2008) note

that such pressures can also reduce the buffering capacity of coastal

vegetation systems.

Renewable energy resources on small islands have only recently been

considered within the context of long-term energy security (Chen et al.,

2007; Praene et al., 2012). Stuart (2006) speculates that the lack of

uptake of renewable technologies to date might be due to historical

commitments to conventional fossil fuel-based infrastructure, and a lack

of resources to undertake research and development of alternatives.

Those islands that have introduced renewable energy technologies have

often done so with support from international development agencies

(Dornan, 2011). Despite this, there remain significant barriers to the

wider institutionalization of renewable technologies in small islands.

Research in Europe and the USA has shown the mitigation and cost

savings benefits of Energy Service Companies (ESCOs): companies that

enter into medium- to long-term performance-based contracts with

energy users, invest in energy-efficiency measures in buildings and firms,

and profit from the ensuing energy savings measures for the premises

(see, e.g., Steinberger et al., 2009). Potential benefits exist in creating

the opportunity for ESCOs to operate in small islands. Preliminary

evidence from Fiji suggests that if the incentive mechanisms can be

resolved, and information asymmetries between service providers and

users can be aligned, ESCOs could provide an opportunity to expand

renewable technologies (Dornan, 2009). IPCC (2011) presents examples

of opportunities for renewable energy, including wind energy sources,

as deployed in the Canary Islands.

The transition toward renewable energy sources away from fossil fuel

dependence has been partly driven by economic motives, notably to

avoid oil price volatility and its impact. The development of hydro-power

(in Fiji, for example) necessitates protection and management of the

water catchment zones, and thus could lead to improved management

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1642

of the water resources—a critical adaptation consideration for areas

expected to experience a decrease in average rainfall as a result of

climate change. While the cost effectiveness of renewable technologies

is critical, placing it within the context of water adaptation could enhance

project viability (Dornan, 2009). Cost-benefit analyses have shown that

in southeast Mediterranean islands photovoltaic generation and storage

systems may be more cost-effective than existing thermal power stations

(Kaldellis, 2008; Kaldellis et al., 2009).

nergy prices in small islands are among the highest anywhere in the

world, mainly because of their dependence on imported fossil fuel, and

limited ability to reap the benefits of economies of scale including bulk

buying. Recent studies show that the energy sectors in small islands

may be transformed into sustainable growth entities mainly through

the judicious exploitation of renewable energy sources, combined with

the implementation of energy-efficiency measures (van Alphen et al.,

2008; Banuri, 2009; Mohanty, 2012; Rogers et al., 2012). Realizing the

potential for such transformation, the countries comprising the Alliance

of Small Island States (AOSIS) launched SIDS Dock, which is intended

to function as a “docking station” to connect the energy sector in small

island developing states with the international finance, technology, and

carbon markets with the objective of pooling and optimizing energy-

efficiency goods and services for the benefit of the group. This initiative

seeks to decrease energy dependence in small island developing states,

while generating financial resources to support low carbon growth and

adaptation interventions.

Many small islands rely heavily on the foreign exchange from tourism

to expand and develop their economies, including the costs of mitigation

and adaptation. Tourism, particularly in small islands, often relies on

coastal and terrestrial ecosystems to provide visitor attractions and

accommodation space. Recognizing the relationship between ecosystem

services and tourism in Jamaica, Thomas-Hope and Jardine-Comrie (2007)

suggest that sustainable tourism planning should include activities

undertaken by the industry, that is, tertiary treatment of waste and reuse

of water, as well as composting organic material and investing in

renewable energy. Gössling and Schumacher (2010) and others who

have examined the linkages between GHG emissions and sustainable

tourism argue that the tourism sector (operators and tourists) should

pay to promote sustainable tourism, especially where they benefit directly

from environmental services sustained by these investments.

29.8. Facilitating Adaptation

and Avoiding Maladaptation

Although there is a clear consensus that adaptation to the risks posed

by global climate change is necessary and urgent in small islands, the

implementation of specific strategies and options is a complex process

that requires critical evaluation of multiple factors, if expected outcomes

are to be achieved (Kelman and West, 2009; Barnett and O’Neill, 2012).

These considerations may include, inter alia, prior experience with similar

or related threats, efficacy of the strategies or options and their co-

enefits, costs (monetary and non-monetary), availability of alternatives,

and social acceptability. In addition, previous work (e.g., Adger et al.,

2005) has emphasized the relevance of scale as a critical factor when

assessing the efficacy and value of adaptation strategies, as the extent

to which an option is perceived to be a success, failure, or maladaptive

may be conditioned by whether it is being assessed as a response to

climate variability (shorter term) or climate change (longer term).

As in other regions, adaptation in islands is locally delivered and context

specific (Tompkins et al., 2010). Yet, sectors and communities on small

islands are often so intricately linked that there are many potential

pathways that may lead to maladaptation, be it via increased GHG

emissions, foreclosure of future options, or burdensome opportunity

costs on local communities. There is also a concern that some types of

interventions may actually be maladaptive. For example, Barnett and

O’Neill (2012) suggest that strategies such as resettlement and migration

should be regarded as options of “last resort” on islands, as they may

actually discourage viable adaptation initiatives, by fostering over-

dependence on external support. They further argue that a priori

acceptance of adaptation as an efficacious option for places like the

Pacific Islands may also act as a disincentive for reducing GHG emissions

(Barnett and O’Neill, 2012).

Notwithstanding the observations of Barnett and O’Neill (2012), there

is a concern that early foreclosure of this option might well prove

maladaptive, if location-specific circumstances show such action to be

efficacious in the longer term. For example, Bunce et al. (2009) have

shown that, as an adaptive response to poverty, young fishers from

Rodrigues Island periodically resort to temporary migration to the main

capital island, Mauritius, where greater employment prospects exist. The

case study of the residents of Nauru, who contemplated resettlement

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 29.3 | Is it appropriate to transfer adaptation and mitigation strategies

between and within small island countries and regions?

Although lessons learned from adaptation and mitigation experiences in one island or island region may offer

some guidance, caution must be exercised to ensure that the transfer of such experiences is appropriate to local

biophysical, social, economic, political, and cultural circumstances. If this approach is not purposefully incorporated

into the implementation process, it is possible that maladaptation and inappropriate mitigation may result. It is

therefore necessary to carefully assess the risk proﬁle of each individual island so as to ensure that any investments

in adaptation and mitigation are context speciﬁc. The varying risk proﬁles between individual small islands and

small island regions have not always been adequately acknowledged in the past.

Small Islands Chapter 29

1643

in Australia after the collapse of phosphate mining (their only revenue

source) in the 1950s, provides helpful insight into the complex social,

economic, and cultural challenges associated with environmentally

triggered migration (Tabucanon and Opeskin, 2011). Negotiations with

the Government of Australia collapsed before a mutually acceptable

agreement was reached, and the Nauruans opted to abandon the

proposal to relocate (Tabucanon and Opeskin, 2011). Overall, however,

it is suggested that states contemplating long-term, off-island migration

may wish to consider early proactive planning, as resettlement of entire

ommunities might prove to be socially, culturally, and economically

disruptive (Campbell, 2010; McMichael et al., 2012; see also Section

29.3.3.3). A related challenge facing small islands is the need to find

the middle ground between resettlement and objective assessment of

other appropriate adaptation choices.

Similarly, although insurance is being promoted as an element of the

overall climate change response strategy in some island regions, for

example, the Caribbean, concerns have been expressed about possible

linkages to maladaptation. The potential consequences include the

imposition of exorbitant premiums that are beyond the capacity of

resource-scarce governments as the perception of climate change risks

increase, discriminatory coverage of sectors that may not align with

local priorities, and tacit encouragement for the state, individuals, and

the private sector to engage in behavior that is not risk-averse, for

example, development in hazard-prone areas (Herweijer et al., 2009;

Linnerooth-Bayer et al., 2011; Thomas and Leichenko, 2011; van

Nostrand and Nevius, 2011). Likewise, although the exploitation of

renewable energy is vital to the sustainable development of small

islands, more attention needs to be paid to the development of energy

storage technologies, if rapid transition from conventional fuels is to be

achieved in an efficient manner. This is especially important in the case of

intermittent energy sources (e.g., solar and wind), as the cost of current

storage technologies can frustrate achievement of full conversion to

renewable energy. Thus to avoid the possibility of maladaptation in

the sector, countries may wish to consider engaging in comprehensive

planning, including considerations relating to energy storage (Krajačić

et al., 2010; Bazilian et al., 2011).

Recent studies have demonstrated that opportunities exist in island

environments for avoiding maladaptation. Studies have shown that

decisions about adaptation choices and their implementation are best

facilitated where there is constructive engagement with the communities

at risk, in a manner that fosters transparency and trust (van Aalst et al.,

2008; López-Marrero, 2010). Further, some analysts argue that adaptation

choices are often subjective in nature and suggest that participatory

stakeholder involvement can yield valuable information about the

priorities and expectations that communities attach to the sector for

which adaptation is being sought.

The point is underscored by Moreno and Becken (2009), whose study of

the tourism sector on the Mamanuca islands (Fiji) clearly demonstrates

that approaches that explicitly integrate stakeholders into each step of the

process from vulnerability assessment right through to consideration of

alternatives measures can provide a sound basis for assisting destinations

with the implementation of appropriate adaptation interventions. This

view is supported by Dulal et al. (2009), who argue that the most

vulnerable groups in the Caribbean—the poor, elderly, indigenous

communities, and rural children—will be at greater risk of being

marginalized, if adaptation is not informed by equitable and participatory

frameworks.

Other studies reveal that new paradigms whose adoption can reduce

the risk of maladaptation in island environments are emerging across

various sectors. In the area of natural resource management, Hansen

et al. (2010) suggest that the use of protected areas for climate refugia,

reduction of non-climate stressors on ecosystems, and adoption of

daptive management approaches, combined with reduction of GHG

emissions wherever possible, may prove to be more effective response

strategies than traditional conservation approaches. Other strategic

approaches, including the implementation of multi-sectoral and cross-

sectoral measures, also facilitate adaptation in a more equitable,

integrated, and sustainable manner. Similarly, “no-regret” measures

such as wastewater recycling, trickle irrigation, conversion to non-fossil

fuel-based energy, and transportation which offer collateral benefits

with or without the threat of climate change and “low-regret” strategies,

which may increase existing operational costs only marginally, are

becoming increasingly attractive options to island governments (Gravelle

and Mimura, 2008; Heltberg et al., 2009; Howard et al., 2010). Together,

these constitute valid risk management approaches, as they are designed

to assist communities in making prudent, but necessary decisions in the

face of an uncertain future.

Some authors suggest that caution is needed to ensure that donors are

not driving the adaptation and mitigation agenda in small islands, as

there is a risk that donor-driven adaptation or mitigation may not always

address the salient challenges on small islands, and may lead to

inadequate adaptation or a waste of scarce resources (Nunn, 2009;

Barnett, 2010). Others argue that donor-led initiatives may unintentionally

cause enhanced vulnerability by supporting adaptation strategies that are

externally derived, rather than optimizing the benefits of local practices

that have proven to be efficacious through time (Reenberg et al., 2008;

Campbell and Beckford, 2009; Kelman and West, 2009).

29.9. Research and Data Gaps

Several advances have taken place in our understanding of the observed

and potential effects of climate change on small islands since the

AR4. These cover a range of themes including dynamic downscaling of

scenarios appropriate for small islands; impacts of transboundary

processes generated well beyond the borders of an individual nation or

island; barriers to adaptation in small islands and how they may be

overcome; the relationships between climate change adaptation and

disaster risk reduction; and the relationships between climate change

adaptation, maladaptation, and sustainable development.

It is also evident that much further work is required on these themes in

small island situations, especially comparative research. Important

information and data gaps and many uncertainties still exist on impacts,

vulnerability, and adaptation in small islands. These include:

• Lack of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and

data at the required scale for small islands. Although some

advances have been made (Taylor et al., 2007; Australian Bureau

of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011a,b), much of the work in the

Chapter 29 Small Islands

1644

Caribbean, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and Mediterranean islands

is focused at the regional scale rather than being country specific.

Because most socioeconomic decisions are taken at the local level,

there is a need for a more extensive database of simulations of future

small island climates and socioeconomic conditions at smaller spatial

scales.

• Difficulties in detecting and attributing past impacts on

small islands to climate change processes. Further investigation

of the observed impacts of weather, climate, and ocean events that

ay be related to climate change is required to clarify the relative

role of climate change and non-climate change drivers.

• Uncertainty in the projections is not a sufficiently valid

reason to postpone adaptation planning in small islands. In

several small islands adaptation is being progressed without a full

understanding of past or potential impacts and vulnerability.

Although assessment of future impacts is hampered because of

uncertainty in climate projections at the local island level, alternative

scenarios based on a general understanding of broad trends could

be used in vulnerability and sensitivity studies to guide adaptation

strategies.

• Need for a range of climate change-related projections

beyond temperature and sea level. Generally, climate-model

projections of temperature and sea level have been satisfactory,

but there are strong requirements for projections for other variables

that are of critical importance to small islands. These include rainfall

and drought, wind direction and strength, tropical storms and wave

climate, and recognition that transboundary processes are also

significant in a small island context. Although some such work has

been undertaken for some parts of the Pacific (Australian Bureau

of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011a,b), similar work still needs to be

carried out in other small island regions. In addition, the reliability

of existing projections for some of the other parameters needs to

be improved and the data should be in suitable formats for use in

risk assessments.

• Need to acknowledge the heterogeneity and complexity of

small island states and territories. Although small islands have

several characteristics in common, neither the variety nor complexity

of small islands is sufficiently reflected in the literature. Thus,

transfer of data and practices from a continental situation, or from

one small island state to another, needs to be done with care and

in a manner that takes full cognizance of such heterogeneity and

complexity.

• Within-country and -territory differences need to be better

understood. Many of the environmental and human impacts

reported in the literature on islands have been attributed to the

whole country, when in fact they refer only to the major center or

town or region. There is need for more work on rural areas, outer

islands, and secondary communities. Several examples of such

research have been cited in this chapter. Also it should be noted

that some small island states are single islands and others highly

fragmented multiple islands.

• Lack of investment and attention to climate and environmental

monitoring frameworks in small islands. A fundamental gap in

the ability to improve empirical understanding of present and future

climate change impacts is the lack of climate and environmental

monitoring frameworks that in turn hampers the level of confidence

with which adaptation responses can be designed and implemented.

• Economic and social costs of climate change impacts and

adaptation options are rarely known. In small island states and

territories the costs of past weather, climate, and ocean events are

poorly known and further research is required to identify such costs,

and to determine the economic and societal costs of climate change

impacts and the costs of adaptation options to minimize those

impacts.

The foregoing list is a sample of the gaps, needs, and research agenda

hat urgently need to be filled for small islands. Although some countries

have begun to fill these gaps, this work needs to be replicated and

expanded across all island regions to improve the database available

for ongoing climate change assessments. Such information would raise

the level of confidence in the adaptation planning and implementation

process in small islands.

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