1199
22
Africa
Coordinating Lead Authors:
Isabelle Niang (Senegal), Oliver C. Ruppel (Namibia)
Lead Authors:
Mohamed A. Abdrabo (Egypt), Ama Essel (Ghana), Christopher Lennard (South Africa),
Jonathan Padgham (USA), Penny Urquhart (South Africa)
Contributing Authors:
Ibidun Adelekan (Nigeria), Sally Archibald (South Africa), Michael Balinga (Cameroon),
Armineh Barkhordarian (Germany), Jane Battersby (South Africa), Eren Bilir (USA), Marshall Burke
(USA), Mohammed Chahed (Tunisia), Monalisa Chatterjee (USA/India), Chineke Theo Chidiezie
(Nigeria), Katrien Descheemaeker (Netherlands), Houria Djoudi (Algeria), Kristie L. Ebi (USA),
Papa Demba Fall (Senegal), Ricardo Fuentes (Mexico), Rebecca Garland (South Africa), Fatou Gaye
(The Gambia), Karim Hilmi (Morocco), Emiloa Gbobaniyi (Nigeria), Patrick Gonzalez (USA),
Blane Harvey (UK), Mary Hayden (USA), Andreas Hemp (Germany), Guy Jobbins (UK),
Jennifer Johnson (USA), David Lobell (USA), Bruno Locatelli (France), Eva Ludi (UK), Lars Otto Naess
(UK), Mzime R. Ndebele-Murisa (Zimbabwe), Aminata Ndiaye (Senegal), Andrew Newsham (UK),
Sirra Njai (The Gambia), Johnson Nkem (Cameroon), Jane Mukarugwiza Olwoch (South Africa),
Pieter Pauw (Netherlands), Emilia Pramova (Bulgaria), Marie-Louise Rakotondrafara (Madagascar),
Clionadh Raleigh (Ireland), Debra Roberts (South Africa), Carla Roncoli (USA), Aissa Toure Sarr
(Senegal), Michael Henry Schleyer (South Africa), Lena Schulte-Uebbing (Germany), Roland Schulze
(South Africa), Hussen Seid (Ethiopia), Sheona Shackleton (South Africa), Mxolisi Shongwe
(South Africa), Dáithí Stone (Canada/South Africa/USA), David Thomas (UK), Okoro Ugochukwu
(Nigeria), Dike Victor (Nigeria), Katharine Vincent (South Africa), Koko Warner (Germany), Sidat Yaffa
(The Gambia)
Review Editors:
Pauline Dube (Botswana), Neil Leary (USA)
Volunteer Chapter Scientist:
Lena Schulte-Uebbing (Germany)
This chapter should be cited as:
Niang, I., O.C. Ruppel, M.A. Abdrabo, A. Essel, C. Lennard, J. Padgham, and P. Urquhart, 2014: Africa. In: Climate
Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field,
D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma,
E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1199-1265.
22
1200
Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................................................... 1202
22.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 1205
22.1.1. Structure of the Regions ................................................................................................................................................................. 1205
22.1.2. Major Conclusions from Previous Assessments .............................................................................................................................. 1205
22.1.2.1. Regional Special Report and Assessment Reports ........................................................................................................... 1205
22.1.2.2. Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation ......... 1205
22.2. Observed Climate Trends and Future Projections ................................................................................................. 1206
22.2.1. Temperature ................................................................................................................................................................................... 1206
22.2.1.1. Observed Trends .............................................................................................................................................................. 1206
22.2.1.2. Projected Trends .............................................................................................................................................................. 1206
22.2.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................................................................................... 1209
22.2.2.1. Observed Changes .......................................................................................................................................................... 1209
22.2.2.2. Projected Changes ........................................................................................................................................................... 1210
22.2.3. Observed and Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Rainfall ......................................................................................... 1210
22.3. Vulnerability and Impacts ..................................................................................................................................... 1211
22.3.1. Socioeconomic and Environmental Context Influencing Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity ........................................................ 1211
22.3.2. Ecosystems ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1213
22.3.2.1. Terrestrial Ecosystems ..................................................................................................................................................... 1213
22.3.2.2. Freshwater Ecosystems .................................................................................................................................................... 1215
22.3.2.3. Coastal and Ocean Systems ............................................................................................................................................ 1216
22.3.3. Water Resources ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1216
22.3.4. Agriculture and Food Security ......................................................................................................................................................... 1218
22.3.4.1. Crops ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1218
22.3.4.2. Livestock ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1219
22.3.4.3. Agricultural Pests, Diseases, and Weeds .......................................................................................................................... 1220
22.3.4.4. Fisheries .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1220
22.3.4.5. Food Security ................................................................................................................................................................... 1221
22.3.5. Health ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1221
22.3.5.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1221
22.3.5.2. Food- and Water-Borne Diseases ..................................................................................................................................... 1222
22.3.5.3. Nutrition .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1222
22.3.5.4. Vector-Borne Diseases and Other Climate-Sensitive Health Outcomes ............................................................................ 1222
22.3.6. Urbanization ................................................................................................................................................................................... 1224
22.4. Adaptation ............................................................................................................................................................ 1225
22.4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1225
Table of Contents
22
Africa Chapter 22
1201
22.4.2. Adaptation Needs, Gaps, and Adaptive Capacity ............................................................................................................................ 1226
22.4.3. Adaptation, Equity, and Sustainable Development ......................................................................................................................... 1226
22.4.4. Experiences in Building the Governance System for Adaptation, and Lessons Learned .................................................................. 1227
22.4.4.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1227
22.4.4.2. Regional and National Adaptation Planning and Implementation .................................................................................. 1227
22.4.4.3. Institutional Frameworks for Adaptation ......................................................................................................................... 1228
22.4.4.4. Subnational Adaptation Governance ............................................................................................................................... 1228
22.4.4.5. Community-Based Adaptation and Local Institutions ...................................................................................................... 1229
22.4.4.6. Adaptation Decision Making and Monitoring ................................................................................................................. 1229
22.4.5. Experiences with Adaptation Measures in Africa and Lessons Learned .......................................................................................... 1229
22.4.5.1. Overview ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1229
22.4.5.2. Climate Risk Reduction, Risk Transfer, and Livelihood Diversification .............................................................................. 1230
Box 22-1. Experience with Index-Based Weather Insurance in Africa ........................................................................... 1231
22.4.5.3. Adaptation as a Participatory Learning Process ............................................................................................................... 1231
22.4.5.4. Knowledge Development and Sharing ............................................................................................................................ 1232
22.4.5.5. Communication, Education, and Capacity Development ................................................................................................. 1233
22.4.5.6. Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity, and Natural Resource Management ............................................................................ 1233
Box 22-2. African Success Story: Integrating Trees into Annual Cropping Systems ....................................................... 1233
22.4.5.7. Technological and Infrastructural Adaptation Responses ................................................................................................ 1234
22.4.5.8. Maladaptation Risks ........................................................................................................................................................ 1235
22.4.6. Barriers and Limits to Adaptation in Africa ..................................................................................................................................... 1236
22.5. Key Risks for Africa ............................................................................................................................................... 1238
22.6. Emerging Issues .................................................................................................................................................... 1238
22.6.1. Human Security .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1238
22.6.1.1. Violent Conflict ................................................................................................................................................................ 1239
22.6.1.2. Migration ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1239
22.6.2. Integrated Adaptation/Mitigation Approaches ............................................................................................................................... 1240
22.6.3. Biofuels and Land Use .................................................................................................................................................................... 1240
22.6.4. Climate Finance and Management ................................................................................................................................................. 1241
22.7. Research Gaps ...................................................................................................................................................... 1242
References ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1243
Frequently Asked Questions
22.1: How could climate change impact food security in Africa? ............................................................................................................. 1221
22.2: What role does climate change play with regard to violent conflict in Africa? ............................................................................... 1239
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1202
Executive Summary
Evidence of warming over land regions across Africa, consistent with anthropogenic climate change, has increased (high
confidence). Decadal analyses of temperatures strongly point to an increased warming trend across the continent over the last 50 to 100
years. {22.2.1.1}
M
ean annual temperature rise over Africa, relative to the late 20th century mean annual temperature, is likely to exceed 2°C in
the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 scenarios by the end of this century (medium confidence).
Warming
projections under medium scenarios indicate that extensive areas of Africa will exceed 2°C by the last 2 decades of this century relative to the
late 20th century mean annual temperature and all of Africa under high emission scenarios. Under a high Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP), that exceedance could occur by mid-century across much of Africa and reach between 3°C and 6°C by the end of the century. It is likely
that land temperatures over Africa will rise faster than the global land average, particularly in the more arid regions, and that the rate of increase
in minimum temperatures will exceed that of maximum temperatures. {22.2.1.2}
A reduction in precipitation is likely over Northern Africa and the southwestern parts of South Africa by the end of the 21st
century under the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios (medium to high confidence).
Projected rainfall change over sub-Saharan Africa in the
mid- and late 21st century is uncertain. In regions of high or complex topography such as the Ethiopian Highlands, downscaled projections
indicate likely increases in rainfall and extreme rainfall by the end of the 21st century. {22.2.2.2, 22.2.3}
African ecosystems are already being affected by climate change, and future impacts are expected to be substantial (high
confidence). There is emerging evidence on shifting ranges of some species and ecosystems due to elevated carbon dioxide (CO
2
) and climate
change, beyond the effects of land use change and other non-climate stressors (high confidence). Ocean ecosystems, in particular coral reefs,
will be affected by ocean acidification and warming as well as changes in ocean upwellings, thus negatively affecting economic sectors such as
fisheries (medium confidence). {22.3.2, Table 22-3}
Climate change will amplify existing stress on water availability in Africa (high confidence). Water resources are subjected to high
hydro-climatic variability over space and time, and are a key constraint on the continent’s continued economic development. The impacts of
climate change will be superimposed onto already water-stressed catchments with complex land uses, engineered water systems, and a strong
historical sociopolitical and economic footprint. Strategies that integrate land and water management, and disaster risk reduction, within a
framework of emerging climate change risks would bolster resilient development in the face of projected impacts of climate change. {22.3.2.2,
22.3.3}
Climate change will interact with non-climate drivers and stressors to exacerbate vulnerability of agricultural systems, particularly
in semi-arid areas (high confidence). Increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation are very likely to reduce cereal crop productivity.
This will have strong adverse effects on food security. New evidence is also emerging that high-value perennial crops could also be adversely
affected by temperature rise (medium confidence). Pest, weed, and disease pressure on crops and livestock is expected to increase as a result
of climate change combined with other factors (low confidence). Moreover, new challenges to food security are emerging as a result of strong
urbanization trends on the continent and increasingly globalized food chains, which require better understanding of the multi-stressor context
of food and livelihood security in both urban and rural contexts in Africa. {22.3.4.3, 22.3.4.5}
Progress has been achieved on managing risks to food production from current climate variability and near-term climate change
but these will not be sufficient to address long-term impacts of climate change (high confidence).
Livelihood-based approaches for
managing risks to food production from multiple stressors, including rainfall variability, have increased substantially in Africa since the IPCC’s
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While these efforts can improve the resiliency of agricultural systems in Africa over the near term, current
adaptations will be insufficient for managing risks from long-term climate change, which will be variable across regions and farming system
types. Nonetheless, processes such as collaborative, participatory research that includes scientists and farmers, strengthening of communication
systems for anticipating and responding to climate risks, and increased flexibility in livelihood options, which serve to strengthen coping
strategies in agriculture for near-term risks from climate variability, provide potential pathways for strengthening adaptive capacities for climate
change. {22.4.5.4, 22.4.5.7, 22.4.6, 22.6.2}
22
Africa Chapter 22
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Climate change may increase the burden of a range of climate-relevant health outcomes (medium confidence). Climate change
is a multiplier of existing health vulnerabilities (high confidence), including insufficient access to safe water and improved
sanitation, food insecurity, and limited access to health care and education. {22.3.5.1}
Detection and attribution of trends is difficult
because of the complexity of disease transmission, with many drivers other than weather and climate, and short and often incomplete data
sets. Evidence is growing that highland areas, especially in East Africa, could experience increased malaria epidemics due to climate change
(
medium evidence, very high agreement). The strong seasonality of meningococcal meningitis and associations with weather and climate
variability suggest the disease burden could be negatively affected by climate change (medium evidence, high agreement). The frequency of
leishmaniasis epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa is changing, with spatial spread to peri-urban areas and to adjacent geographic regions, with
possible contributions from changing rainfall patterns (low confidence). Climate change is projected to increase the burden of malnutrition
(medium confidence), with the highest toll expected in children. {22.3.5.3}
In all regions of the continent, national governments are initiating governance systems for adaptation and responding to climate
change, but evolving institutional frameworks cannot yet effectively coordinate the range of adaptation initiatives being
implemented (high confidence).
Progress on national and subnational policies and strategies has initiated the mainstreaming of adaptation
into sectoral planning. {22.4.4} However, incomplete, under-resourced, and fragmented institutional frameworks and overall low levels of
adaptive capacity, especially competency at local government levels, to manage complex socio-ecological change translate into a largely ad
hoc and project-level approach, which is often donor driven. {22.4.2, 22.4.4.3-4} Overall adaptive capacity is considered to be low. {22.4.2}
Disaster risk reduction, social protection, technological and infrastructural adaptation, ecosystem-based approaches, and livelihood diversification
are reducing vulnerability, but largely in isolated initiatives. {22.4.5} Most adaptations remain autonomous and reactive to short-term motivations.
{22.4.3, 22.4.4.5}
Conservation agriculture provides a viable means for strengthening resilience in agroecosystems and livelihoods that also advance
adaptation goals (high confidence). A wide array of conservation agriculture practices, including agroforestry and farmer-managed natural
tree regeneration, conservation tillage, contouring and terracing, and mulching, are being increasingly adopted in Africa. These practices
strengthen resilience of the land base to extreme events and broaden sources of livelihoods, both of which have strongly positive implications
for climate risk management and adaptation. Moreover, conservation agriculture has direct adaptation-mitigation co-benefits. Addressing
constraints to broader adoption of these practices, such as land tenure/usufruct stability, access to peer-to-peer learning, gender-oriented
extension and credit and markets, as well as identification of perverse policy incentives, would help to enable larger scale transformation of
agricultural landscapes. {22.4.5.6, 22.4.5.7, 22.4.6, 22.6.2}
Despite implementation limitations, Africa’s adaptation experiences nonetheless highlight valuable lessons for enhancing and
scaling up the adaptation response, including principles for good practice and integrated approaches to adaptation (high
confidence).
Five common principles for adaptation and building adaptive capacity can be distilled: (1) supporting autonomous adaptation
through a policy that recognizes the multiple-stressor nature of vulnerable livelihoods; (2) increasing attention to the cultural, ethical, and
rights considerations of adaptation by increasing the participation of women, youth, and poor and vulnerable people in adaptation policy and
implementation; (3) combining “soft path” options and flexible and iterative learning approaches with technological and infrastructural
approaches and blending scientific, local, and indigenous knowledge when developing adaptation strategies; (4) focusing on building resilience
and implementing low-regrets adaptation with development synergies, in the face of future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties; and (5)
building adaptive management and social and institutional learning into adaptation processes at all levels. {22.4} Ecosystem-based approaches
and pro-poor integrated adaptation-mitigation initiatives hold promise for a more sustainable and system-oriented approach to adaptation, as
does promoting equity goals, key for future resilience, through emphasizing gender aspects and highly vulnerable groups such as children.
{22.4.2, 22.4.5.6, 22.6.2, Table 22-5}
Strengthened interlinkages between adaptation and development pathways and a focus on building resilience would help to
counter the current adaptation deficit and reduce future maladaptation risks (high confidence). {22.4.3}
Development strategies are
currently not able to counter current climate risks, as highlighted by the impacts of recent extreme events; national policies that disregard
cultural, traditional, and context-specific factors can act as barriers to local adaptation; and there is increased knowledge of maladaptation risks
from narrowly conceived development interventions and sectoral adaptation strategies that decrease resilience in other sectors or ecosystems.
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1204
{22.4.4, 22.4.6} Given multiple uncertainties in the African context, successful adaptation will depend on building resilience. {22.4-6} Options for
pro-poor adaptation/resilient livelihoods include improved social protection, social services, and safety nets; better water and land governance
and tenure security over land and vital assets; enhanced water storage, water harvesting, and post-harvest services; strengthened civil society
and greater involvement in planning; and more attention to urban and peri-urban areas heavily affected by migration of poor people. {22.4.2,
22.4.4-6}
Growing understanding of the multiple interlinked constraints on increasing adaptive capacity is beginning to indicate potential
limits to adaptation in Africa (medium confidence). Climate change combined with other external changes (environmental, social, political,
technological) may overwhelm the ability of people to cope and adapt, especially if the root causes of poverty and vulnerability are not addressed.
Evidence is growing for the effectiveness of flexible and diverse development systems that are designed to reduce vulnerability, spread risk, and
build adaptive capacity. These points indicate the benefits of new development trajectories that place climate resilience, ecosystem stability,
equity, and justice at the center of development efforts. {22.4.6}
There is increased evidence of the significant financial resources, technological support, and investment in institutional and
capacity development needed to address climate risk, build adaptive capacity, and implement robust adaptation strategies (high
confidence).
Funding and technology transfer and support is needed to both address Africa’s current adaptation deficit and to protect rural
and urban livelihoods, societies, and economies from climate change impacts at different local scales. {22.4, 22.6.4} Strengthening institutional
capacities and governance mechanisms to enhance the ability of national governments and scientific institutions in Africa to absorb and
effectively manage large amounts of funds allocated for adaptation will help to ensure the effectiveness of adaptation initiatives (medium
confidence). {22.6.4}
Climate change and climate variability have the potential to exacerbate or multiply existing threats to human security including
food, health, and economic insecurity, all being of particular concern for Africa (medium confidence). {22.6.1} Many of these
threats are known drivers of conflict (high confidence). Causality between climate change and violent conflict is difficult to establish owing to
the presence of these and other interconnected causes, including country-specific sociopolitical, economic, and cultural factors. For example, the
degradation of natural resources as a result of both overexploitation and climate change will contribute to increased conflicts over the distribution
of these resources. {22.6.1.1} Many of the interacting social, demographic, and economic drivers of observed urbanization and migration in
Africa are sensitive to climate change impacts. {22.6.1.2}
A wide range of data and research gaps constrain decision making in processes to reduce vulnerability, build resilience, and plan
and implement adaptation strategies at different levels in Africa (high confidence). Overarching data and research gaps identified
include data management and monitoring of climate parameters and development of climate change scenarios; monitoring systems to address
climate change impacts in the different sectors; research and improved methodologies to assess and quantify the impact of climate change on
different sectors and systems; and socioeconomic consequences of the loss of ecosystems, of economic activities, of certain mitigation choices
such as biofuels, and of adaptation strategies. {22.7}
Of nine climate-related key regional risks identified for Africa, eight pose medium or higher risk even with highly adapted systems,
while only one key risk assessed can be potentially reduced with high adaptation to below a medium risk level, for the end of
the 21st century under 2°C global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels (medium confidence).
Key regional risks
relating to shifts in biome distribution, loss of coral reefs, reduced crop productivity, adverse effects on livestock, vector- and water-borne
diseases, undernutrition, and migration are assessed as either medium or high for the present under current adaptation, reflecting Africa’s
existing adaptation deficit. {22.3.1-2, 22.3.4-5, 22.6.1.2} The assessment of significant residual impacts in a 2°C world at the end of the 21st
century suggests that, even under high levels of adaptation, there could be very high levels of risk for Africa. At a global mean temperature
increase of 4°C, risks for Africa’s food security (see key risks on livestock and crop production) are assessed as very high, with limited potential
for risk reduction through adaptation. {22.3.4, 22.4.5, 22.5, Table 22-6}
22
Africa Chapter 22
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22.1. Introduction
Africa as a whole is one of the most vulnerable continents due to its
high exposure and low adaptive capacity. Given that climatic and
ecological regions transcend national political boundaries, we have used
the divisions of Africa's Regional Economic Communities (RECs) to
structure the assessment within this chapter.
22.1.1. Structure of the Regions
The African continent (including Madagascar) is the world’s second
largest and most populous continent (1,031,084,000 in 2010) behind
Asia (UN DESA Population Division, 2013). The continent is organized
at the regional level under the African Union (AU).
1
The AU’s Assembly
of Heads of State and Government has officially recognized eight
RECs (Ruppel, 2009). Except for the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic,
2
all AU member states are affiliated with one or more of these RECs.
These RECs include the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), with 5 countries
in Northern Africa; the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD),
grouping 27 countries; the Common Market for Eastern and Southern
Africa (COMESA), grouping 19 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa;
the East African Community (EAC), with 5 countries; the Economic
Community of Central African States (ECCAS), with 10 countries; the
Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), with 15
countries; the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) with
8 countries; and the Southern African Development Community (SADC),
with 15 countries. The regional subdivision of African countries into
RECs is a structure used by the AU and the New Partnership for Africa
(NEPAD).
22.1.2. Major Conclusions from Previous Assessments
22.1.2.1. Regional Special Report and Assessment Reports
M
ajor concluions related to Africa from previous assessments are
summarized in Table 22-1.
22.1.2.2. Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events
and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and
Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX; IPCC, 2012) is
of particular relevance to the African continent.There is low to medium
confidence in historical extreme temperature and heavy rainfall trends
over most of Africa because of partial lack of data, literature, and
consistency of reported patterns in the literature (Seneviratne et al., 2012).
However, most regions within Africa for which data are available have
recorded an increase in extreme temperatures (Seneviratne et al., 2012).
For projected temperature extreme there is high confidence that heat
waves and warm spell durations will increase, suggesting an increased
persistence of hot days (90th percentile) toward the end of the century
Report Major conclusions Reference
Special Report
on the Regional
Impacts of
Climate Change
• Sensitivity of water resources and coastal zones to climatic parameters
• Identifi cation of climate change as an additional burden on an already stressful situation
• Major challenges for Africa: lack of data on energy sources; uncertainties linked to climate change scenarios (mainly for precipitation); need for integrated
studies; and the necessary links between science and decision makers
Zinyowera
et al. (1997)
Third
Assessment
Report
• Impacts of climate change on and vulnerability of six sectors: water resources; food security; natural resources and biodiversity management; health;
human settlements and infrastructure; desertifi cation
• Adaptation strategies for each of the sectors
• Threats of desertifi cation and droughts to the economy of the continent
• Suggestion of adaptation options: mainly linked with better resource management
• Identifi cation of research gaps and needs: capacity building; data needs; development of integrated analysis; consideration of literature in other languages
Desanker et
al. (2001)
Fourth
Assessment
Report
• Vulnerability of Africa due mainly to its low adaptive capacity
• Sources of vulnerability mainly socioeconomic causes (demographic growth, governance, confl icts, etc.)
• Impacts of climate change on various sectors: energy, tourism, and coastal zones considered separately
• Potential impacts of extreme weather events (droughts and fl oods)
• Adaptation costs
• Need for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national development policies
• Two case studies:
• Food security: Climate change could affect the three main components of food security.
• Traditional knowledge: African communities have prior experience with climate variability, although this knowledge will not be suffi cient to face climate
change impacts.
• Research needs: better knowledge of climate variability; more studies on the impacts of climate change on water resources, energy, biodiversity, tourism,
and health; the links between different sectors (e.g., between agriculture, land availability, and biofuels); developing links with the disaster reduction
community; increasing interdisciplinary analysis of climate change; and strengthening institutional capacities
Boko et al.
(2007)
Table 22-1 | Major conclusions from previous IPCC assessments.
1
Owing to controversies regarding the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, Morocco withdrew from the Organization of African Unity (OAU) in protest in 1984 and, since South
Africa’s admittance in 1994, remains the only African nation not within what is now the AU.
2
Although the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic has been a full member of the OAU since 1984 and remains a member of the AU, the Republic is not generally recognized as
a sovereign state and has no representation in the United Nations.
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1206
(Tebaldi et al., 2006; Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2012). There is high
confidence for projected shorter extreme maximum temperature return
periods across the SRES B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios for the near and far
future as well as a reduction of the number of cold extremes (Seneviratne
et al., 2012). In East and southern Africa, there is mediumconfidence that
droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons, due to
reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration. There is low
confidence in projected increases of heavy precipitation over most of
Africaexcept over East Africa, where there is ahigh confidence in a
p
rojected increase in heavy precipitation(Seneviratne et al., 2012).
22.2. Observed Climate Trends
and Future Projections
22.2.1. Temperature
22.2.1.1. Observed Trends
Near surface temperatures have increased by 0.5°C or more during the
last 50 to 100 years over most parts of Africa, with minimum temperatures
warming more rapidly than maximum temperatures (Hulme et al., 2001;
Jones and Moberg, 2003; Kruger and Shongwe, 2004; Schreck and
Semazzi, 2004; New et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; Rosenzweig et al., 2007;
Trenberth et al., 2007; Christy et al., 2009; Collins 2011; Grab and Craparo,
2011; Hoffman et al., 2011; Mohamed, 2011; Stern et al., 2011; Funk et
al., 2012; Nicholson et al., 2013). Near surface air temperature anomalies
in Africa were significantly higher for the period 1995–2010 compared
to the period 1979–1994 (Collins, 2011). Figure 22-1 shows that it is
very likely that mean annual temperature has increased over the past
century over most of the African continent, with the exception of areas
of the interior of the continent, where the data coverage has been
determined to be insufficient to draw conclusions about temperature
trends (Figure 22-1; Box CC-RC). There is strong evidence of an
anthropogenic signal in continent-wide temperature increases in the
20th century (WGI AR5 Section 10.3.1; Stott, 2003; Min and Hense,
2007; Stott et al., 2010, 2011).
In recent decades, North African annual and seasonal observed trends
in mean near surface temperature indicate an overall warming that is
significantly beyond the range of changes due to natural (internal)
variability (Barkhordarian et al., 2012a). During the warm seasons (March-
April-May, June-July-August) an increase in near surface temperature
is shown over northern Algeria and Morocco that is very unlikely due to
natural variability or natural forcing alone (Barkhordarian et al., 2012b).
The region has also experienced positive trends in annual minimum and
maximum temperature (Vizy and Cook, 2012).
Over West Africa and the Sahel near surface temperatures have increased
over the last 50 years. Using indices developed by the Expert Team on
Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), New et al. (2006) show
the number of cold days and cold nights have decreased and the
number of warm days and warm nights have increased between 1961
and 2000. Many of these trends are statistically significant at the 90%
level, and they find similar trends in extreme temperature indices. Collins
(2011) shows statistically significant warming of between 0.5°C and
0.8°C between 1970 and 2010 over the region using remotely sensed
data with a greater magnitude of change in the latter 20 years of the
period compared to the former.
The equatorial and southern parts of eastern Africa have experienced a
significant increase in temperature since the beginning of the early
1980s (Anyah and Qiu, 2012). Similarly, recent reports from the Famine
Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicate that there has
been an increase in seasonal mean temperature in many areas of
Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda over the last 50 years (Funk
e
t al., 2011, 2012). In addition, warming of the near surface temperature
and an increase in the frequency of extreme warm events has been
observed for countries bordering the western Indian Ocean between
1961 and 2008 (Vincent et al., 2011b).
In recent decades, most of southern Africa has also experienced upward
trends in annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperature over large
extents of the sub-region during the last half of the 20th century, with
the most significant warming occurring during the last 2 decades
(Zhou et al., 2010; Collins, 2011; Kruger and Sekele, 2012). Minimum
temperatures have increased more rapidly relative to maximum
temperatures over inland southern Africa (New et al., 2006).
22.2.1.2. Projected Trends
Temperatures in Africa are projected to rise faster than the global
average increase during the 21st century (Christensen et al., 2007; Joshi
et al., 2011; Sanderson et al., 2011; James and Washington, 2013).
Global average near surface air temperature is projected to move
beyond 20th century simulated variability by 2069 (±18 years) under
Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and by 2047 (±14
years) under RCP8.5 (Mora et al., 2013). However, in the tropics, especially
tropical West Africa, these unprecedented climates are projected to occur
1 to 2 decades earlier than the global average because the relatively
small natural climate variability in this region generates narrow climate
bounds that can be easily surpassed by relatively small climate changes.
Figure 22-1 shows projected temperature increases based on the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble.
Increases in mean annual temperature over all land areas are very likely
in the mid- and late 21st-century periods for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (Figure
22-1; Box CC-RC). Ensemble mean changes in mean annual temperature
exceed 2°C above the late 20th-century baseline over most land areas
of the continent in the mid-21st century for RCP8.5, and exceed 4°C
over most land areas in the late 21st century for RCP8.5. Changes in
mean annual temperature for RCP8.5 follow a pattern of larger changes
in magnitude over northern and southern Africa, with (relatively) smaller
changes in magnitude over central Africa. The ensemble mean changes
are less than 2°C above the late 20th century baseline in both the mid-
and late 21st century for RCP2.6.
Over North Africa under the SRES A1B scenario, both annual minimum
and maximum temperature are likely to increase in the future, with
greater increase in minimum temperature (Vizy and Cook, 2012). The
faster increase in minimum temperature is consistent with greater warming
at night, resulting in a decrease in the future extreme temperature range
(Vizy and Cook, 2012). Higher temperature increases are projected
during boreal summer by CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs)
22
Africa Chapter 22
1207
Annual Precipitation
Change
Difference from 1986–2005 mean
(˚C)
Diagonal Lines
Trend not
statistically
significant
White
Insufficient
data
Solid Color
Strong
agreement
Very strong
agreement
Little or
no change
Gray
Divergent
changes
Solid Color
Significant
trend
Diagonal Lines
White Dots
Annual Temperature Change
late 21st century
mid 21st century
RCP8.5RCP2.6
Trend over 1901–2012
(˚C over period)
Difference from 1986–2005 mean (%)
02 46
(mm/year per decade)
Trend in annual precipitation over 1951–2010
–20 0 20 40
–5 0525102.5–2.5 50–10–50 –25–100
late 21st century
mid 21st century
RCP8.5RCP2.6
Figure 22-1 | Observed and projected changes in annual average temperature and precipitation. (Top panel, left) Map of observed annual average temperature change from
1901–2012, derived from a linear trend. [WGI AR5 Figures SPM.1 and 2.21] (Bottom panel, left) Map of observed annual precipitation change from 1951–2010, derived from a
linear trend. [WGI AR5 Figures SPM.2 and 2.29] For observed temperature and precipitation, trends have been calculated where sufficient data permit a robust estimate (i.e., only
for grid boxes with greater than 70% complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period). Other areas are white. Solid colors
indicate areas where trends are significant at the 10% level. Diagonal lines indicate areas where trends are not significant. (Top and bottom panel, right) CMIP5 multi-model
mean projections of annual average temperature changes and average percent changes in annual mean precipitation for 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under RCP2.6 and 8.5,
relative to 1986–2005. Solid colors indicate areas with very strong agreement, where the multi-model mean change is greater than twice the baseline variability (natural internal
variability in 20-yr means) and ≥90% of models agree on sign of change. Colors with white dots indicate areas with strong agreement, where ≥66% of models show change
greater than the baseline variability and ≥66% of models agree on sign of change. Gray indicates areas with divergent changes, where ≥66% of models show change greater
than the baseline variability, but <66% agree on sign of change. Colors with diagonal lines indicate areas with little or no change, where <66% of models show change greater
than the baseline variability, although there may be significant change at shorter timescales such as seasons, months, or days. Analysis uses model data and methods building
from WGI AR5 Figure SPM.8. See also Annex I of WGI AR5. [Boxes 21-2 and CC-RC]
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1208
H
istorical
Natural RCP2.6
R
CP8.5
Overlap
O
verlap
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
8
6
4
2
0
–2
1960
°C
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
T
he East African
Community, the
I
ntergovernmental
Authority on Development,
a
nd Egypt
Near-surface air temperature (land and EEZ)
Precipitation (land)
The Economic Community
of Central African States
The Economic Community
of West African States
The Southern African
Development
Community
The Arab Maghreb Union
Figure 22-2 | Observed and simulated variations in past and projected future annual average temperature over East African Community–Intergovernmental Authority on
Development–Egypt (EAC–IGAD–Egypt), Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Southern African
Development Community (SADC), and the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU). Black lines show various estimates from observational measurements. Shading denotes the 5th to 95th
percentile range of climate model simulations driven with “historical” changes in anthropogenic and natural drivers (63 simulations), historical changes in “natural” drivers only
(34), the RCP2.6 emissions scenario (63), and RCP8.5 (63). Data are anomalies from the 1986–2005 average of the individual observational data (for the observational time
series) or of the corresponding historical all-forcing simulations. Further details are given in Box 21-3.
O
bserved
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1
960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
8
6
4
2
0
–2
8
6
4
2
0
–2
8
6
4
2
0
–2
8
6
4
2
0
–2
°C°C°C°C
%
40
20
0
–20
–40
%
40
20
0
–20
–40
%
4
0
20
0
–20
–40
%
40
20
0
–20
–40
%
40
20
0
–20
–40
22
Africa Chapter 22
1209
(WGI AR5 Annex 1). A strengthening of the North African thermal low
in the 21st century is associated with a surface temperature increase
(Paeth et al., 2009; Patricola and Cook, 2010; Barkhordarian et al.,
2012a; Cook and Vizy, 2012).
Temperature projections over West Africa for the end of the 21st century
from both the CMIP3 GCMs (SRES A2 and A1B scenarios) and CMIP5
GCMs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) range between 3°C and 6°C above the late
20th century baseline (Meehl et al., 2007; Fontaine et al., 2011; Diallo et
a
l., 2012; Monerie et al., 2012; Figures 22-1, 22-2). Regional downscalings
produce a similar range of projected change (Patricola and Cook, 2010,
2011; Mariotti et al., 2011; Vizy et al., 2013). Diffenbaugh and Giorgi
(2012) identify the Sahel and tropical West Africa as hotspots of climate
change for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways, and unprecedented
climates are projected to occur earliest (late 2030s to early 2040s) in
these regions (Mora et al., 2013).
Climate model projections under the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios over
Ethiopia show warming in all four seasons across the country, which
may cause a higher frequency of heat waves as well as higher rates of
evaporation (Conway and Schipper, 2011). Projected maximum and
minimum temperatures over equatorial eastern Africa show a significant
increase in the number of days warmer than 2°C above the 1981–2000
average by the middle and end of the 21st century under the A1B and
A2 scenarios (Anyah and Qiu, 2012). Elshamy et al. (2009) show a
temperature increase over the upper Blue Nile of between 2°C and 5°C
at the end of the 21st century under the A1B scenario compared to a
1961–1990 baseline.
Mean land surface warming in Southern Africa is likely to exceed the
global mean land surface temperature increase in all seasons (Sillmann
and Roeckner, 2008; Watterson, 2009; Mariotti et al., 2011; Orlowsky
and Seneviratne, 2012; James and Washington, 2013). Furthermore,
towards the end of the 21st century the projected warming of between
3.4ºC and 4.2ºC above the 1981–2000 average under the A2 scenario
far exceeds natural climate variability (Moise and Hudson, 2008). High
warming rates are projected over the semi-arid southwestern parts of the
sub-region covering northwestern South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia
(WGI AR5 Annex 1; Moise and Hudson, 2008; Engelbrecht et al., 2009;
Shongwe et al., 2009; Watterson, 2009). Observed and simulated
variations in past and projected future annual average temperature over
five African regions (EAC-IGAD-Egypt, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC, and
AMU) are captured in Figure 22-2, which indicates the projected
temperature rise is very likely to exceed the 1986–2005 baseline by
between 3°C and 6°C across these regions by the end of the 21st
century under RCP8.5.
22.2.2. Precipitation
22.2.2.1. Observed Changes
Most areas of the African continent lack sufficient observational data
to draw conclusions about trends in annual precipitation over the past
century (Figure 22-1; Box CC-RC). In addition, in many regions of the
continent discrepancies exist between different observed precipitation
data sets (Nikulin et al., 2012; Sylla et al., 2012; Kalognomou et al.,
2013; Kim et al., 2013). Areas where there are sufficient data include
very likely decreases in annual precipitation over the past century over
parts of the western and eastern Sahel region in northern Africa, along
with very likely increases over parts of eastern and southern Africa.
Over the last few decades the northern regions of North Africa (north
of the Atlas Mountains and along the Mediterranean coast of Algeria
and Tunisia) have experienced a strong decrease in the amount of
precipitation received in winter and early spring (Barkhordarian et al.,
2
013). The observed record also indicates greater than 330 dry days
(with less than 1 mm day
–
1
rainfall) per year over the 1997–2008 time
period (Vizy and Cook, 2012). However, in autumn (September-October-
November) observations show a positive trend in precipitation in some
parts of northern Algeria and Morocco (Barkhordarian et al., 2013). The
Sahara Desert, which receives less than 25 mm yr
–1
, shows little seasonal
change (Liebmann et al., 2012).
Rainfall over the Sahel has experienced an overall reduction over the
course of the 20th century, with a recovery toward the last 20 years of
the century (WGI AR5 Section 14.3.7.1; Nicholson et al., 2000; Lebel
and Ali, 2009; Ackerley et al., 2011; Mohamed, 2011; Biasutti, 2013).
The occurrence of a large number of droughts in the Sahel during the
1970s and 1980s is well documented and understood (Biasutti and
Giannini, 2006; Biasutti et al., 2008; Greene et al., 2009). The recovery
of the rains may be due to natural variability (Mohino et al., 2011) or a
forced response to increased greenhouse gases (Haarsma et al., 2005;
Biasutti, 2013) or reduced aerosols (Ackerley et al., 2011).
Precipitation in eastern Africa shows a high degree of temporal and
spatial variability dominated by a variety of physical processes (Rosell
and Holmer, 2007; Hession and Moore, 2011). Williams and Funk (2011)
and Funk et al. (2008) indicate that over the last 3 decades rainfall has
decreased over eastern Africa between March and May/June. The
suggested physical link to the decrease in rainfall is rapid warming of the
Indian Ocean, which causes an increase in convection and precipitation
over the tropical Indian Ocean and thus contributes to increased
subsidence over eastern Africa and a decrease in rainfall during March
to May/June (Funk et al., 2008; Williams and Funk, 2011). Similarly, Lyon
and DeWitt (2012) show a decline in the March-May seasonal rainfall
over eastern Africa. Summer (June-September) monsoonal precipitation
has declined throughout much of the Great Horn of Africa over the last
60 years (during the 1948–2009 period; Williams et al., 2012) as a result
of the changing sea level pressure (SLP) gradient between Sudan and
the southern coast of the Mediterranean Sea and the southern tropical
Indian Ocean region (Williams et al., 2012).
Over southern Africa a reduction in late austral summer precipitation
has been reported over its western parts, extending from Namibia,
through Angola, and toward the Congo during the second half of the
20th century (Hoerling et al., 2006; New et al., 2006). The drying is
associated with an upward trend in tropical Indian Ocean sea surface
temperatures (SSTs). Modest downward trends in rainfall are found in
Botswana, Zimbabwe, and western South Africa. Apart from changes in
total or mean summer rainfall, certain intra-seasonal characteristics of
seasonal rainfall such as onset, duration, dry spell frequencies, and
rainfall intensity as well as delay of rainfall onset have changed (Tadross
et al., 2005, 2009; Thomas et al., 2007; Kniveton et al., 2009). An
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1210
increasing frequency of dry spells is accompanied by an increasing
trend in daily rainfall intensity, which has implications for run-off
characteristics (New et al., 2006).
22.2.2.2. Projected Changes
Precipitation projections are more uncertain than temperature projections
(Rowell, 2012) and exhibit higher spatial and seasonal dependence than
t
emperature projections (Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2012). The CMIP5
ensemble projects very likely decreases in mean annual precipitation
over the Mediterranean region of northern Africa in the mid- and late
21st century periods for RCP8.5 (Figure 22-1; Box CC-RC). CMIP5 also
projects very likely decreases in mean annual precipitation over areas
of southern Africa beginning in the mid-21st century for RCP8.5 and
expanding substantially in the late 21st century for RCP8.5. In contrast,
CMIP5 projects likely increases in mean annual precipitation over areas
of central and eastern Africa beginning the mid-21st century for RCP8.5.
Most areas of the African continent do not exhibit changes in mean
annual precipitation that exceed the baseline variability in more than
66% of the models in either the mid- or late 21st-century periods for
RCP2.6. Observed and simulated variations in past and projected future
annual average precipitation over five African regions (EAC-IGAD-Egypt,
ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC, and AMU) are captured in Figure 22-2.
A reduction in rainfall over northern Africa is very likely by the end of
the 21st century. The annual and seasonal drying/warming signal over
the northern African region (including North of Morocco, Algeria, Libya,
Egypt, and Tunisia) is a consistent feature in the global (Giorgi and
Lionello, 2008; Barkhordarian et al., 2013) and the regional (Lionello
and Giorgi, 2007; Gao and Giorgi, 2008; Paeth et al., 2009; Patricola and
Cook, 2010) climate change projections for the 21st century under the
A1B and A2 scenarios. Furthermore, over the northern basin of Tunisia,
climate models under the A1B scenario project a significant decrease
in the median and 10th and 90th percentile values of precipitation in
winter and spring seasons (Bargaoui et al., 2013).
West African precipitation projections in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives
show inter-model variation in both the amplitude and direction of
change that is partially attributed to the inability of GCMs to resolve
convective rainfall (WGI AR5 Section 14.8.7; Biasutti et al., 2008;
Druyan, 2011; Fontaine et al., 2011; Roehrig et al., 2013). Many CMIP5
models indicate a wetter core rainfall season with a small delay to rainy
season by the end of the 21st century (WGI AR5 Section 14.8.7; Biasutti,
2013). However, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) can alter the sign of
rainfall change of the driving GCM, especially in regions of high or
complex topography (WGI AR5 Sections 9.6.4, 14.3.7.1; Sylla et al., 2012;
Cook and Vizy, 2013; Saeed et al., 2013). There is therefore low to
medium confidence in the robustness of projected regional precipitation
change until a larger body of regional results become available through,
for example, the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX; Giorgi et al., 2009, Jones et al., 2011, Hewitson et al., 2012).
An assessment of 12 CMIP3 GCMs over eastern Africa suggests that by
the end of the 21st century there will be a wetter climate with more
intense wet seasons and less severe droughts during October-November-
December (OND) and March-April-May (MAM) (WGI AR5 Section 14.8.7;
Moise and Hudson, 2008; Shongwe et al., 2011). These results indicate
a reversal of historical trend in these months (Funk et al., 2008; Williams
and Funk, 2011). Lyon and DeWitt (2012) ascribe this reversal to recent
cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific that offsets the equatorial
Pacific SST warming projected by CMIP3 GCMs in future scenarios.
However, GCM projections over Ethiopia indicate a wide range of rainfall
spatial pattern changes (Conway and Schipper, 2011) and in some
regions GCMs do not agree on the direction of precipitation change,
for example, in the upper Blue Nile basin in the late 21st century
(
Elshamy et al., 2009). Regional climate model studies suggest drying
over most parts of Uganda, Kenya, and South Sudan in August and
September by the end of the 21st century as a result of a weakening
Somali jet and Indian monsoon (Patricola and Cook, 2011). Cook and Vizy
(2013) indicate truncated boreal spring rains in the mid-21st century
over eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and southern Kenya while the
boreal fall season is lengthened in the southern Kenya and Tanzania
(Nakaegawa et al., 2012). These regional studies highlight the importance
of resolving both regional scale atmospheric processes and local effects
such as land surface on rainfall simulation across the region (WGI AR5
Section 14.8.7).
Over southern Africa CMIP3 GCM projections show a drying signal in
the annual mean over the climatologically dry southwest, extending
northeastward from the desert areas in Namibia and Botswana (Moise
and Hudson, 2008; Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2012; James and
Washington, 2013). This pattern is replicated by CMIP5 GCMs (see Figure
22-1). During the austral summer months, dry conditions are projected
in the southwest while downscaled projections indicate wetter conditions
in the southeast of South Africa and the Drakensberg mountain range
(Hewitson and Crane, 2006; Engelbrecht et al., 2009). Consistent with
the AR4, drier winters are projected over a large area in southern Africa
by the end of the century as a result of the poleward displacement of
mid-latitude storm tracks (WGI AR5 Section 14.8.7; Moise and Hudson,
2008; Engelbrecht et al., 2009; Shongwe et al., 2009; Seth et al., 2011;
James and Washington, 2013). Rainfall decreases are also projected
during austral spring months, implying a delay in the onset of seasonal
rains over a large part of the summer rainfall region of southern Africa
(Shongwe et al., 2009; Seth et al., 2011). The sign, magnitude, and
spatial extent of projected precipitation changes are dependent on the
Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) employed, due primarily to
parameterization schemes used and their interaction with model
dynamics (Hewitson and Crane, 2006; Rocha et al., 2008). Changes in
the parameterization schemes of a single regional climate model
produced opposite rainfall biases over the region (Crétat et al., 2012)
so multiple ensemble downscalings, such as those being produced
through CORDEX, are important to more fully describe the uncertainty
associated with projected rainfall changes across the African continent
(WGI AR5 Section 9.6.5; Laprise et al., 2013).
22.2.3. Observed and Projected Changes
in Extreme Temperature and Rainfall
In northern Africa, the northwestern Sahara experienced 40 to 50 heat
wave days per year during the 1989–2009 time period (Vizy and Cook,
2012). There is a projected increase in this number of heat wave days
over the 21st century (Patricola and Cook, 2010; Vizy and Cook, 2012).
22
Africa Chapter 22
1211
Over West Africa there is low to medium confidence in projected
changes of heavy precipitation by the end of the 21st century based on
CMIP3 GCMs (Seneviratne et al., 2012). Regional model studies suggest
an increase in the number of extreme rainfall days over West Africa and
the Sahel during May and July (Vizy and Cook, 2012) and more intense
and more frequent occurrences of extreme rainfall over the Guinea
Highlands and Cameroun Mountains (Sylla et al., 2012; Haensler et al.,
2013). The ability of RCMs to resolve complex topography captures the
amplifying role of topography in producing extreme rainfall that GCMs
c
annot.
Extreme precipitation changes over eastern Africa such as droughts and
heavy rainfall have been experienced more frequently during the last
30 to 60 years (Funk et al., 2008; Williams and Funk, 2011; Shongwe et
al., 2011; Lyon and DeWitt, 2012). A continued warming in the Indian-
Pacific warm pool has been shown to contribute to more frequent East
African droughts over the past 30 years during the spring and summer
seasons (Williams and Funk, 2011). It is unclear whether these changes
are due to anthropogenic influences or multi-decadal natural variability
(Lyon and DeWitt, 2012; Lyon et al., 2013). Projected increases in heavy
precipitation over the region have been reported with high certainty in
the SREX (Seneviratne et al., 2012), and Vizy and Cook (2012) indicate
an increase in the number of extreme wet days by the mid-21st century.
Over southern Africa an increase in extreme warm ETCCDI indices (hot
days, hot nights, hottest days) and a decrease in extreme cold indices
(cold days and cold nights) in recent decades is consistent with the
general warming trend (New et al., 2006; Tebaldi et al., 2006; Aguilar
et al., 2009; Kruger and Sekele, 2012). The probability of austral summer
heat waves over South Africa increased over the last 2 decades of the
20th century compared to 1961 to 1980 (Lyon, 2009). Enhanced heat wave
probabilities are associated with deficient rainfall conditions that tend
to occur during El Niño events. The southwestern regions are projected
to be at a high risk to severe droughts during the 21st century and
beyond (Hoerling et al., 2006; Shongwe et al., 2011). Large uncertainties
surround projected changes in tropical cyclone landfall from the southwest
Indian Ocean that have resulted in intense floods during the 20th century.
Future precipitation projections show changes in the scale of the rainfall
probability distribution, indicating that extremes of both signs may
become more frequent in the future (Kay and Washington, 2008).
22.3. Vulnerability and Impacts
This section highlights Africa’s vulnerability to climate change, as well
as the main observed and potential impacts on natural resources,
ecosystems, and economic sectors. Figure 22-3 summarizes the main
conclusions regarding observed changes in regional climate and their
relation to anthropogenic climate change (described in Section 22.2) as
well as regarding observed changes in natural and human systems and
their relation to observed regional climate change (described in this
section). Confidence in detection and attribution of anthropogenically
driven climate change is highest for temperature measures. In many
regions of Africa, evidence is constrained by limited monitoring. However,
impacts of observed precipitation changes are among the observed
impacts with the highest assessment of confidence, implying that some
of the potentially more significant impacts of anthropogenic climate
change for Africa are of a nature that challenges detection and attribution
analysis (Section 18.5.1).
22.3.1. Socioeconomic and Environmental Context
Influencing Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity
Equitable socioeconomic development in Africa may strengthen its
resilience to various external shocks, including climate change. In 2009,
t
he Human Rights Council adopted Resolution 10/4,
3
w
hich noted the
effects of climate change on the enjoyment of human rights, and
reaffirmed the potential of human rights obligations and commitments
to inform and strengthen international and national policymaking.
The impacts of climate change on human rights have been explicitly
recognized by the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights
(hereafter African Commission) in its Resolution on Climate Change and
Human Rights and the Need to Study Its Impact in Africa (ACHPR/Res
153 XLV09). The 1981 African (Banjul) Charter on Human and Peoples’
Rights (hereafter African Charter) protects the right of peoples to a
“general satisfactory environment favorable to their development”
(Article 24). The recognition of this right and the progressive jurisprudence
by the African Commission in environmental matters underline the
relevance of potential linkages between climate change and human
rights (Ruppel, 2012).
The link between climate change and humans is not only associated with
human rights. Rather, strong links exist between climate change and the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): climate change may adversely
affect progress toward attaining the MDGs, as climate change can not
only increase the pressure on economic activities, such as agriculture
(Section 22.3.4) and fishing (Section 22.3.4.4), but also adversely affect
urban areas located in coastal zones (Section 22.3.6). Slow progress in
attaining most MDGs may, meanwhile, reduce the resilience and adaptive
capabilities of African individuals, communities, states, and nations
(UNECA et al., 2009, 2012; UNDP et al., 2011).
The African continent has made significant progress on some MDGs;
however, not all MDGs have been achieved, with high levels of spatial
and group disparities. In addition, progress on all MDG indicators is
skewed in favor of higher-income groups and urban populations, which
means further marginalization of already excluded groups (MDG Africa
Steering Group, 2008; AfDB et al., 2010; World Bank and IMF, 2010). As
a whole, the continent is experiencing a number of demographic and
economic constraints, with the population having more than doubled
since 1980, exceeding 1 billion in 2010 and expected to reach 3 billion
by the year 2050, should fertility rates remain constant (Muchena et al.,
2005; Fermont et al., 2008; UN DESA Population Division, 2011). The
global economic crisis is adding additional constraints on economic
development efforts, leading to increased loss of livelihood and widespread
poverty (Easterly, 2009; Moyo, 2009; Adesina, 2010). The percent of the
population below the poverty line has decreased from 56.5% in 1990
to 47.5% in 2008 (excluding North Africa); however, a significant
proportion of the population living below the poverty line remains
3
U.N. Doc. A/HRC/10/L.11.
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1212
chronically poor (UNECA et al., 2012). Although poverty in rural areas
in sub-Saharan Africa has declined from 64.9% in 1998 to 61.6% in
2008, it is still double the prevailing average in developing countries in
other regions (IFAD, 2010).
Agriculture, which is the main economic activity in terms of employment
share, is 98% rainfed in the sub-Saharan region (FAO, 2002).
4
Stagnant
agricultural yields, relative to the region’s population growth, have led
to a fall in per capita food availability since the 1970s (MDG Africa
Steering Group, 2008).
5
Such stagnation was reversed with an improved
performance of the agricultural sector in sub-Saharan Africa during
2000–2010. However, most of this improvement was the result of
countries recovering from the poor performance of the 1980s and
1990s, along with favorable domestic prices (Nin-Pratt et al., 2012).
In addition, recent increases in global food prices aggravate food
insecurity among the urban poor, increasing the risk of malnutrition and
its consequences (MDG Africa Steering Group, 2008). For example, it was
estimated that the global rise in food prices has contributed to the deaths
of an additional 30,000 to 50,000 children suffering from malnutrition
in 2009 in sub-Saharan Africa (Friedman and Schady, 2009); see Table
22-2. This situation may be complicated further by changes in rainfall
variability and extreme weather events affecting the agriculture sector
(Yabi and Afouda, 2012).
12
4
3
6
5
7
10
9
1
9
12
1
4
3
2
6
5
7
10
11
11
9
12
1
3
4
2
2
6
5
7
8
8
8
10
11
Continental-scale Regional-scale
Very low
Low
Medium
Confidence in attribution
High
Very high
Very low
Low
Medium
Confidence in attribution
High
Very high
Very low Low Medium
Confidence in detection
High Very highVery low Low Medium
Confidence in detection
High Very high
(a) Observed climate change
(a)
(b) Observed impacts
(b)
AMU
regions used for the
p
recipitation and
temperature trends
r
egions used for the
temperature trend only
E
COWAS
ECCAS
E
AC/IGAD/Egypt
SADC
Precipitation changes
Warming
Unaffiliated
Change in wet events
More frequent hot events
Less frequent cold events
Attribution of major role
Attribution of minor role
Adapting South African farmers
Great Lakes fisheries
Kenyan highlands malaria
Sahel fruit trees
Glacier retreat
Great Lakes warming
West African river discharge
Sahel drought
Southern species ranges
Mt. Kilimanjaro wildfires
Western Sahel tree density
Coral reefs in tropical waters
P
hysical systems Biological systems Human and managed systems
Figure 22-3 | (a) Confidence in detection and in attribution of observed climate change over Africa to anthropogenic emissions. All detection assessments are against a
reference of no change, while all attribution assessments concern a major role of anthropogenic emissions in the observed changes. See 22.2, SREX Chapter 3 (Seneviratne et al.,
2012), and WGI AR5 Chapter 10 for details. The regions used for analyses are: Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Economic
Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Southern African Development Community (SADC), combined East African Community, Intergovernmental Authority on Develop-
ment, and Egypt (EAC/IGAD/Egypt). (b) Confidence in detection and in attribution of the impacts of observed regional climate change on various African systems. All detection
assessments are against a reference of no change, except “9. Adapting South African farmers” (economic changes), "10. Great Lakes fisheries" (changes due to fisheries
management and land use), and "11. Kenyan highlands malaria" (changes due to vaccination, drug resistance, demography, and livelihoods). Attribution is to a major role or a
minor role of observed climate change, as indicated. See 22.2.2, 22.2.3, 22.3.2, 22.3.3, 22.3.5.4, 22.4.5.7 and Tables 18-5 through 18-9 for details. Assessments follow the
methods outlined in 18.2.
4
However, mining and energy sectors, where active, are undergoing expansion, stimulating growth and adding potentially to state revenues but are also highly vulnerable to global
recession. Overall, the limited production and export structures of the continent are likely to maintain its historical vulnerability to external shocks (UNECA and AUC, 2011).
5
Lack of extension services for farmers in Africa can also contribute to low utilization and spread of innovations and technologies that can help mitigate climate change.
22
Africa Chapter 22
1213
In response, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) was
founded in 2001, for Africans to take the lead in efforts to achieve the
development vision espoused in the AU Constitutive Act as well as the
MDGs and to support regional integration as a mechanism for inclusive
growth and development in Africa (NEPAD et al., 2012; Ruppel, 2013).
Furthermore, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development
Program (CAADP), which works under the umbrella of NEPAD, was
established in 2003 to help African countries reach a higher path of
economic growth through agriculture-led development. For this to
happen, it focuses on four pillars for action: land and water management,
market access, food supply and hunger, and agricultural research (NEPAD,
2010).
Africa has made much progress in the achievement of universal primary
education; however, the results are unevenly distributed. Nevertheless,
a considerable number of children, especially girls from poor backgrounds
and rural communities, still do not have access to primary education
(MDG Africa Steering Group, 2008).
From the livelihood perspective, African women are vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change because they shoulder an enormous but
imprecisely recorded portion of responsibility for subsistence agriculture,
the productivity of which can be expected to be adversely affected by
climate change and overexploited soil (Viatte et al., 2009; see also
Section 22.4.2 and Table 22-5).
6
Global financial crises, such as the one
experienced in 2007–2008, as well as downturn economic trends at the
national level, may cause job losses in the formal sector and men may
compete for jobs in the informal sector that were previously undertaken
by women, making them more vulnerable (AfDB et al., 2010).
Significant efforts have been made to improve access to safe drinking
water and sanitation in Africa, with access to safe drinking water
increasing from 56 to 65% between 1990 and 2008 (UNDP et al., 2011),
with sub-Saharan Africa nearly doubling the number of people using
an improved drinking water source—from 252 to 492 million over the
same period (UN, 2011). Despite such progress, significant disparities in
access to safe water and sanitation, between not only urban and rural
but also between large- and medium- and small-sized cities, still exist
(UNDP et al., 2011). Use of improved sanitation facilities, meanwhile, is
generally low in Africa, reaching 41% in 2010 compared to 36% in 1990
(UNDP et al., 2011).
22.3.2. Ecosystems
It is recognized that interactions between different drivers of ecosystem
structure, composition, and function are complex, which makes the
prediction of the impacts of climate change more difficult (see Chapter
4). In AR4, the chapter on Africa indicated that extensive pressure is
e
xerted on different ecosystems by human activities (deforestation,
forest degradation, biomass utilization for energy) as well as processes
inducing changes such as fires or desertification (see WGII AR4 Section
9.2.2.7). Even if the trend is toward better preservation of ecosystems
and a decrease in degradation (such as deforestation), pressures linked,
for example, to agriculture and food security, energy demand, and
urbanization are increasing, putting these ecosystems at risk. This chapter
emphasizes new information since AR4 regarding the vulnerability to
and impacts of climate change for some terrestrial, freshwater, and
coastal/ocean ecosystems.
22.3.2.1. Terrestrial Ecosystems
Changes are occurring in the distribution and dynamics of all types
of terrestrial ecosystems in Africa, including deserts, grasslands and
shrublands, savannas and woodlands, and forests (high confidence) (see
also Section 4.3.2.5). Since AR4, three primary trends have been observed
at the continental scale. The first is a small overall expansion of desert
and contraction of the total vegetated area (low confidence; Brink and
Eva, 2009). The second is a large increase in the extent of human influence
within the vegetated area, accompanied by a decrease in the extent of
natural vegetation (high confidence; Brink and Eva, 2009; Potapov et
al., 2012; Mayaux et al., 2013). The third is a complex set of shifts in
the spatial distribution of the remaining natural vegetation types, with
net decreases in woody vegetation in western Africa (Vincke et al., 2010;
Ruelland et al., 2011; Gonzalez et al., 2012) and net increases in woody
vegetation in central, eastern, and southern Africa (high confidence;
Wigley et al., 2009, 2010; Buitenwerf et al., 2012; Mitchard and Flintrop,
2013).
Overall, the primary driver of these changes is anthropogenic land use
change, particularly the expansion of agriculture, livestock grazing, and
fuelwood harvesting (high confidence; Brink and Eva, 2009; Kutsch et
al., 2011; Bond and Midgley, 2012; Gonzalez et al., 2012). Natural climate
variability, anthropogenic climate change, and interactions between these
drivers and anthropogenic land use change have important additional
and interacting effects (high confidence; Foden et al., 2007; Touchan et
al., 2008; Brink and Eva, 2009; Bond and Midgley, 2012; Gonzalez et
al., 2012). Owing to these interactions, it has been difficult to determine
the role of climate change in isolation from the other drivers (Malhi et
al., 2013). In general, while there are already many examples of changes
in terrestrial ecosystems that are consistent with a climate change signal
and have been detected with high confidence, attribution to climate
change has tended to be characterized by low confidence (see Table
22-3). New observations and approaches are improving confidence in
Undernourished
1990–
1992
1999–
2001
2004–
2006
2007–
2009
2010–
2012
M
illion 175 205 210 220 239
P
ercentage of total
population
2
7.3 25.3 23.1 22.6 22.9
Table 22-2 | Undernourishment in Africa, by number and percentage of total
population.
Source: IFAD et al. (2012).
6
For instance, 84% of women in sub-Saharan Africa, compared with 69.5% of men, are engaged in such jobs. In northern Africa, even though informal or self-employment is
less predominant, the gender gap is stark, with a much higher proportion of women compared to men in the more vulnerable informal and self-employed status (56.7% of
women compared with 34.9% of men) (UN DESA Population Division, 2011).
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1214
Type of
change and
nature of
evidence
Examples
Time scale of
observations
Confi dence
in the
detection
of change
Potential climate
change driver(s)
Confi dence
in the role
of climate
vs. other
drivers
Changes in
ecosystem
types
Robust
evidence
Across sub-Saharan Africa, 57% increase in agricultural areas and 15% increase in
b
arren (largely desert) areas was accompanied by 16% decrease in total forest cover and
5
% decrease in total non-forest cover (Brink and Eva, 2009).
~25 years
(
1975 – 2000)
Medium Increasing CO
2
,
c
hanging precipitation
p
atterns, increasing
temperatures
Low
O
n Mt. Kilimanjaro, increased vulnerability to anthropogenic fi res has driven 9%
decreases in montane forest and 83% decreases in subalpine forest (Hemp, 2009).
~
25 years
(1976 – 2000)
H
igh Increasing
temperatures,
d
ecreasing
precipitation
L
ow
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, total forest cover declined by 2.3%, with most
l
osses in secondary humid forest (Potapov et al., 2012).
~10 years
(
2000 – 2010)
High None proposed Low
Dieback of seaward edge of mangroves in Cameroon at rates up to 3 m yr
–1
(Ellison and
Z
ouh, 2012)
~35 years
(
1975 – 2010)
High Sea level rise Medium
Across western Africa, central Africa, and Madagascar, net deforestation was 0.28% yr
–
1
f
or 1990 – 2000 and 0.14% yr
–1
for 2000 – 2010 (Mayaux et al., 2013).
~20 years
(
1990 – 2010)
High None proposed Low
Changes in
ecosystem
structure
Robust
evidence
Surveys of coral reefs in northern Tanzania indicate relative stability in the abundance
a
nd diversity of species, despite climate and non-climate stressors (McClanahan et al.,
2009).
~9 years
(
1996 – 2005)
High None proposed Low
Analysis of sediment cores from Lake Victoria indicates current community structure (i.e.,
dominated by cyanobacteria and invasive fi sh) was established rapidly, during the 1980s
(Hecky et al., 2010).
~100 years
(1900 – 2000)
High Increasing
temperatures
Low
Long-term declines in density of trees and shrubs in the Sahel zone of Senegal (Vincke et
al., 2010) and Mali (Ruelland et al., 2011)
~20 – 50 years
(Senegal, 1976 –1995;
Mali, 1952 – 2003)
High Drought stress
induced by decreasing
precipitation
Low
Southward shift in the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinean savanna vegetation zones inferred
from declines in tree density in Senegal and declines in tree species richness and
changes in species composition in Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad
(Gonzalez et al., 2012)
~40 – 50 years
(density, 1954 – 2002;
diversity, 1960 – 2000)
Medium Increasing
temperatures,
decreasing
precipitation
Medium
Long-term increase in shrub and tree cover across mesic savanna sites (700 –1000 mm
mean annual precipitation (MAP)) with contrasting land use histories in South Africa
(Wigley et al., 2009; 2010)
~67 years
(1937 – 2004)
High Increasing CO
2
Low
In long-term fi eld experiments (between 1970s and 1990s) in South Africa where
disturbance from fi re and herbivory was controlled, density of trees and shrubs increased
almost threefold in mesic savannas (from original MAP of more than 700 mm yr
– 1
in
1970s) but showed no change in a semi-arid savanna (original MAP of over 500 mm yr
–
1
in 1970s) (Buitenwerf et al., 2012).
~30 – 50 years
(1980 – 2010 for
600-mm MAP site;
1954 – 2004 for 550-
and 750-mm MAP
sites)
High In mesic site,
increasing CO
2
; but
lack of response
in semi-arid site
surprising and
unexplained
Medium
Changes in
ecosystem
physiology
Moderate
evidence
A reconstruction of drought history in Tunisia and Algeria based on tree ring records from
Cedrus atlantica and Pinus halepensis indicates that a 1999 – 2002 drought was the most
severe since the 15th century (Touchan et al., 2008).
~550 years
(1456 – 2002)
High Increasing
temperatures,
decreasing
precipitation
Low
Across 79 African tropical forest plots, above-ground carbon storage in live trees
increased by 0.63 Mg C ha
–1
yr
–1
(Lewis et al., 2009).
~40 years
(1968 – 2007)
High Increasing CO
2
Medium
Increased stratifi cation and reduced nutrient fl uxes and primary productivity in Lake
Tanganyika (Verburg and Hecky, 2009)
~90 years
(1913 – 2000)
High Increasing
temperatures
High
Recent increases in surface temperatures and decreases in productivity of Lake
Tanganyika exceed the range of natural variability (Tierney et al., 2010).
~1500 years
(500 – 2000)
High Increasing
temperatures
High
Changes
in species
distributions,
physiology,
or behavior
Moderate
evidence
The range of Aloe dichotoma, a Namib Desert tree, is shifting poleward, but extinction
along trailing edge exceeds colonization along leading edge (Foden et al., 2007).
~100 years
(1904 – 2002)
High Increasing
temperatures,
decreasing
precipitation
Medium
On Tsaratanana Massif, the highest mountain in Madagascar, reptiles and amphibians
are moving upslope (Raxworthy et al., 2008).
~10 years
(1993 – 2003)
High Increasing
temperatures
Medium
Pomacentrus damselfi sh species vary in avoidance of predation-related mortality under
elevated CO
2
(Ferrari et al., 2011).
Minutes to days
(Nov. – Dec. 2009)
High Increasing CO
2
Low
In greenhouse experiments, growth of seedlings of woody savanna species (Acacia karoo
and Terminalia sericea) was enhanced at elevated CO
2
levels (Bond and Midgley, 2012).
~ 1 – 2 y e a r s High Increasing CO
2
Medium
Table 22-3 | Examples of detected changes in species, natural ecosystems, and managed ecosystems in Africa that are both consistent with aclimate changesignal and
published since the AR4.Confi dence in detection of change is based on the lengthof study and on the type, amount, and quality of data in relation to the natural variability
in the particularspecies or system. Confi dence in the role of climate being a major driver of the change is based on the extentto which the detected change is consistent with
thatexpected under climate change, and to which otherconfounding or interacting non-climate factors have been considered and found insuffi cient to explainthe observed
change.
22
Africa Chapter 22
1215
attribution (e.g., Buitenwerf et al., 2012; Gonzalez et al., 2012; Pettorelli
et al., 2012; Otto et al., 2013).
There is high agreement that continuing changes in precipitation,
temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO
2
) associated with climate change
are very likely to drive important future changes in terrestrial ecosystems
throughout Africa (high confidence; see examples in Sections 4.3.3.1-2).
Modeling studies focusing on vegetation responses to climate have
projected a variety of biome shifts, related primarily to the extent of
woody vegetation (Delire et al., 2008; Gonzalez et al., 2010; Bergengren
et al., 2011; Zelazowski et al., 2011; Midgley, 2013). For an example of
such projections, see Figure 22-4. However, substantial uncertainties are
inherent in these projections because vegetation across much of the
continent is not deterministically driven by climate alone (high confidence).
Advances in understanding how vegetation dynamics are affected by
fire, grazing, and the interaction of fire and grazing with climate are
expected to enable more sophisticated representations of these
processes in coupled models (Scheiter and Higgins, 2009; Staver et al.,
2011a,b). Improvements in forecasting vegetation responses to climate
change should reduce the uncertainties that are currently associated with
vegetation feedbacks to climate forcing, as well as the uncertainties
about impacts on water resources, agriculture, and health (Alo and
Wang, 2008; Sitch et al., 2008; see also Section 4.5).
22.3.2.2. Freshwater Ecosystems
Freshwater ecosystems in Africa are at risk from anthropogenic land
use change, over-extraction of water and diversions from rivers and
lakes, and increased pollution and sedimentation loading in water
bodies (Vörösmarty et al., 2005; Vié et al., 2009; Darwall et al., 2011).
Climate change is also beginning to affect freshwater ecosystems (see
Conifer forest
Broadleaf forest
Mixed forest
Shrubland
Grassland
Desert
Grassland
Woodland
Deciduous broadleaf forest
Evergreen broadleaf forest
TropicalTemperate
Projected worst-case biome changes
Vulnerability to biome change
Confidence:
Very low
Low Medium High
Very high
≤ 0.05 0.05–0.20 0.20–0.80 0.80–0.95 ≥ 0.95
Confidence according to IPCC (2007) guidance
(a) Projected biome change from the period 1961–1990 to 2071–2100 (b) Vulnerability of ecosystems to biome shifts based on historical
climate (1901–2002) and projected vegetation (2071–2100)
Figure 22-4 | (a) Projected biome change from the periods 1961–1990 to 2071–2100 using the MC1 Dynamic Vegetation Model. Change is indicated if any of nine
combinations of three General Circulation Models (GCMs: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO Mk3), Met Office Hadley Centre climate
prediction model 3 (HadCM3), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) 3.2 medres) and three emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) project change and is thus a
worst-case scenario. Colors represent the future biome predicted. (b) Vulnerability of ecosystems to biome shifts based on historical climate (1901–2002) and projected
vegetation (2071–2100), where all nine GCM emissions scenario combinations agree on the projected biome change. Source: Gonzalez et al., 2010.
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1216
also Section 3.5.2.4, as evident by elevated water temperatures reported
in surface waters of Lakes Kariba, Kivu, Tanganyika, Victoria, and Malawi
(Odada et al., 2006; Marshall et al., 2009; Verburg and Hecky, 2009;
Hecky et al., 2010; Magadza, 2010, 2011; Olaka et al., 2010; Tierney et
al., 2010; Ndebele-Murisa, 2011; Woltering et al., 2011; Osborne, 2012;
Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2012) (medium confidence).
Small variations in climate cause wide fluctuations in the thermal
dynamics of freshwaters (Odada et al., 2006; Stenuite et al., 2007;
V
erburg and Hecky, 2009; Moss, 2010; Olaka et al., 2010). Thermal
stratification in the regions’ lakes, for instance, isolates nutrients from
the euphotic zone, and is strongly linked to hydrodynamic and climatic
conditions (Sarmento et al., 2006; Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2010). Moderate
warming may be contributing to reduced lake water inflows and therefore
nutrients, which subsequently destabilizes plankton dynamics and
thereby adversely affects food resources for higher trophic levels of
mainly planktivorous fish (low confidence) (Magadza, 2008, 2010;
Verburg and Hecky, 2009; Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2011). However, the
interacting drivers of fisheries decline in African lakes are uncertain, given
the extent to which other factors, such as overfishing, pollution, and
invasive species, also impact lake ecosystems and fisheries production
(Phoon et al., 2004; Sarvala et al., 2006; Verburg et al., 2007; Tumbare,
2008; Hecky et al., 2010; Marshall, 2012).
22.3.2.3. Coastal and Ocean Systems
Coastal and ocean systems are important for the economies and
livelihoods of African countries, and climate change will increase challenges
from existing stressors, such as overexploitation of resources, habitat
degradation, loss of biodiversity, salinization, pollution, and coastal
erosion (Arthurton et al., 2006; UNEP and IOC-UNESCO, 2009; Diop et
al., 2011). Coastal systems will experience impacts through sea level
rise (SLR). They will also experience impacts through high sea levels
combined with storm swells, for example, as observed in Durban in
March 2007, when a storm swell up to 14 m due to winds generated
by a cyclone combined with a high astronomic tide at 2.2 m, leading to
damages estimated at US$100 million (Mather and Stretch, 2012). Other
climate change impacts, such as flooding of river deltas or an increased
migration toward coastal towns due to increased drought induced by
climate change (Rain et al., 2011), will also affect coastal zones.
Some South African sea bird species have moved farther south over
recent decades, but land use change may also have contributed to this
migration (Hockey and Midgley, 2009; Hockey et al., 2011). However, it
is considered that South African seabirds could be a valuable signal for
climate change, particularly of the changes induced on prey species
related to changes in physical oceanography, if we are able to separate
the influences of climate parameters from other environmental ones
(Crawford and Altwegg, 2009).
Upwellings, including Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems (EUBEs)
and Equatorial Upwelling Systems (EUSs) are the most biologically active
systems in the oceans (Box CC-UP). In addition to equatorial upwelling,
the primary upwelling systems that affect Africa are the Benguela and
Canary currents along the Atlantic coast (both EBUEs).The waters of the
Benguela current have not shown warming over the period 1950–2009
(Section 30.5.5.1.2), whereas most observations suggest that the
Canary current has warmed since the early 1980s, and there is medium
evidence and medium agreement that primary production in the Canary
current has decreased over the past 2 decades (Section 30.5.5.1.1).
Changing temperatures in the Canary current has resulted in changes
to important fisheries species (e.g., Mauritanian waters have become
increasingly suitable for Sardinella aurita) (Section 30.5.5.1.1).
Upwellings are areas of naturally low pH and high CO
2
concentrations,
and, consequently, may be vulnerable to ocean acidification and its
i
mpacts (Boxes CC-OA, CC-UP; Section 30.5.5). Warming is projected to
continue in the Canary current, and the synergies between this increase
in water temperature and ocean acidification could influence a number
of biological processes (Section 30.5.5.2). Regarding the Benguela
current upwelling, there is medium agreement despite limited evidence
that the Benguela system will experience changes in upwelling intensity
as a result of climate change (Section 30.5.5.1.2). There is considerable
debate as to whether or not climate change will drive an intensification
of upwelling (e.g., Bakun et al., 2010; Narayan et al., 2010) in all regions.
Discussion of the various hypotheses for how climate change may affect
coastal upwelling is presented in Box 30-1.
Ocean acidification (OA) is the term used to describe the process whereby
increased CO
2
in the atmosphere, upon absorption, causes lowering of
the pH of seawater (Box CC-OA). Projections indicate that severe
impairment of reef accretion by organisms such as corals (Hoegh-
Guldberg et al., 2007) and coralline algae (Kuffner et al., 2008) are
substantial potential impacts of ocean acidification, and the combined
effects of global warming and ocean acidification have been further
demonstrated to lower both coral reef productivity (Anthony et al.,
2008) and resilience (Anthony et al., 2011). These effects will have
consequences for reef biodiversity, ecology, and ecosystem services
(Sections 6.3.1-2, 6.3.5, 6.4.1, 30.3.2; Box CC-CR).
Coral vulnerability to heat anomalies is high in the Western Indian
Ocean (Section 30.5.6.1.2). Corals in the southwestern Indian Ocean
(Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mayotte, Réunion, and Rodrigues)
appeared to be more resilient than those in eastern locations (Section
30.5.6.1.2). Social adaptive capacity to cope with such change varies,
and societal responses (such as closures to fishing) can have a positive
impact on reef recovery, as observed in Tanzania (McClanahan et al.,
2009). In Africa, fisheries mainly depend on either coral reefs (on
the eastern coast) or coastal upwelling (on the western coast). These
two ecosystems will be affected by climate change through ocean
acidification, a rise in sea surface temperatures, and changes in upwelling
(see Boxes CC-OA, CC-CR, CC-UP).
22.3.3. Water Resources
Knowledge has advanced since the AR4 regarding current drivers of
water resource abundance in Africa, and in understanding of potential
future impacts on water resources from climate change and other drivers.
However, inadequate observational data in Africa remains a systemic
limitation with respect to fully estimating future freshwater availability
(Neumann et al., 2007; Batisani, 2011). Detection of and attribution to
climate change are difficult given that surface and groundwater hydrology
are governed by multiple, interacting drivers and factors, such as land
22
Africa Chapter 22
1217
use change, water withdrawals, and natural climate variability (see also
Section 3.2.1 and Box CC-WE). There is poor understanding in Africa of
how climate change will affect water quality. This is an important
knowledge gap.
A growing body of literature generated since the AR4 suggests that
climate change in Africa will have an overall modest effect on future
water scarcity relative to other drivers, such as population growth,
urbanization, agricultural growth, and land use change (high confidence)
(
Alcamo et al., 2007; Calow and MacDonald, 2009; Carter and Parker,
2009; MacDonald et al., 2009; Taylor et al., 2009; Abouabdillah et al.,
2010; Beck and Bernauer, 2011; Droogers et al., 2012; Notter et al.,
2012; Tshimanga and Hughes, 2012). However, broad-scale assumptions
about drivers of future water shortages can mask significant sub-
regional variability of climate impacts, particularly in water-stressed
regions that are projected to become drier, such as northern Africa and
parts of southern Africa. For example, rainfed agriculture in northern Africa
is highly dependent on winter precipitation and would be negatively
impacted if total precipitation and the frequency of wet days decline
across North Africa, as has been indicated in recent studies (Born et al.,
2008; Driouech et al., 2010; Abouabdillah et al., 2010; García-Ruiz et
al., 2011). Similarly, climate model predictions based on average rainfall
years do not adequately capture interannual and interdecadal variability
that can positively or negatively influence surface water runoff (Beck and
Bernauer, 2011; Notter et al., 2012; Wolski et al., 2012). Key challenges
for estimating future water abundance in Africa lie in better understanding
relationships among evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and land use
change dynamics under varying temperature and precipitation projections
(Goulden et al., 2009a) and to understand how compound risks such as
heat waves and seasonal rainfall variability might interact in the future
to impact water resources.
Several studies from Africa point to a future decrease in water abundance
due to a range of drivers and stresses, including climate change in
southern and northern Africa (medium confidence). For example, all
countries within the Zambezi River Basin could contend with increasing
water shortages (A2 scenario) although non-climate drivers (e.g.,
population and economic growth, expansion of irrigated agriculture,
and water transfers) are expected to have a strong influence on future
water availability in this basin (Beck and Bernauer, 2011). In Zimbabwe,
climate change is estimated to increase water shortages for downstream
users dependent on the Rozva dam (Ncube et al., 2011). Water shortages
are also estimated for the Okavango Delta, from both climate change
and increased water withdrawals for irrigation (Murray-Hudson et al.,
2006; Milzow et al., 2010; Wolski et al., 2012), and the Breede River in
South Africa (Steynor et al., 2009).
For North Africa, Droogers et al. (2012) estimated that in 2050 climate
change will account for 22% of future water shortages in the region
while 78% of increased future water shortages can be attributed to
socioeconomic factors. Abouabdillah et al. (2010) estimated that higher
temperatures and declining rainfall (A2 and B1 scenarios) would reduce
water resources in Tunisia. Reduced snowpack in the Atlas Mountains
from a combination of warming and reduced precipitation, combined
with more rapid springtime melting is expected to reduce supplies of
seasonal meltwater for lowland areas of Morocco (García-Ruiz et al.,
2011).
In eastern Africa, potential climate change impacts on the Nile Basin are
of particular concern given the basin’s geopolitical and socioeconomic
importance. Reduced flows in the Blue Nile are estimated by late
century due to a combination of climate change (higher temperatures
and declining precipitation) and upstream water development for
irrigation and hydropower (Elshamy et al., 2009; McCartney and Menker
Girma, 2012). Beyene et al. (2010) estimated that streamflow in the
Nile River will increase in the medium term (2010–2039) but will decline
in the latter half of this century (A2 and B1 scenarios) as a result of both
d
eclining rainfall and increased evaporative demand, with subsequent
diminution of water allocation for irrigated agriculture downstream
from the High Aswan Dam. Kingston and Taylor (2010) reached a similar
conclusion about an initial increase followed by a decline in surface
water discharge in the Upper Nile Basin in Uganda. Seasonal runoff
volumes in the Lake Tana Basin are estimated to decrease by the 2080s
under the A2 and B2 scenarios (Abdo et al., 2009), while Taye et al.
(2011) reported inconclusive findings as to changes in runoff in this
basin. The Mara, Nyando, and Tana Rivers in eastern Africa are projected
to have increased flow in the second half of this century (Taye et al.,
2011; Dessu and Melesse, 2012; Nakaegawa et al., 2012).
Estimating the influence of climate change on water resources in West
Africa is limited by the significant climate model uncertainties with
regard to the region’s future precipitation. For example, Itiveh and Bigg
(2008) estimate higher future rainfall in the Niger River Basin (A1, A2,
and B1 scenarios), whereas Oguntunde and Abiodun (2013) report a
strong seasonal component with reduced precipitation in the basin during
the rainy season and increased precipitation during the dry season (A1B
scenario). The Volta Basin is projected to experience a slight mean increase
in precipitation (Kunstmann et al., 2008), and the Bani River Basin in
Mali is estimated to experience substantial reductions in runoff (A2
scenario) due to reduced rainfall (Ruelland et al., 2012). The impact of
climate change on total runoff in the Congo Basin is estimated to be
minimal (A2 scenario) (Tshimanga and Hughes, 2012). Continental wide
studies (e.g., De Wit and Stankiewicz, 2006) indicate that surface drainage
in dry areas is more sensitive to, and will be more adversely affected
by, reduced rainfall than would surface drainage in wetter areas that
experience comparable rainfall reductions.
The overall impact of climate change on groundwater resources in Africa
is expected to be relatively small in comparison with impacts from non-
climatic drivers such as population growth, urbanization, increased
reliance on irrigation to meet food demand, and land use change
(Calow and MacDonald, 2009; Carter and Parker, 2009; MacDonald et
al., 2009; Taylor et al., 2009). Climate change impacts on groundwater
will vary across climatic zones. (See also Section 3.4.6.) An analysis by
MacDonald et al. (2009) indicated that changes in rainfall would not
be expected to impact the recharge of deep aquifers in areas receiving
below 200 mm rainfall per year, where recharge is negligible due to low
rainfall. Groundwater recharge may also not be significantly affected
by climate change in areas that receive more than 500 mm per year,
where sufficient recharge would remain even if rainfall diminished,
assuming current groundwater extraction rates. By contrast, areas
receiving between 200 and 500 mm per year, including the Sahel, the Horn
of Africa, and southern Africa, may experience a decline in groundwater
recharge with climate change to the extent that prolonged drought and
other precipitation anomalies become more frequent with climate
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Chapter 22 Africa
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change, particularly in shallow aquifers, which respond more quickly to
seasonal and yearly changes in rainfall than do deep aquifers (Barthel
et al., 2009).
Coastal aquifers are additionally vulnerable to climate change because
of high rates of groundwater extraction, which leads to saltwater
intrusion in aquifers, coupled with increased saltwater ingression
resulting from SLR (Bouchaou et al., 2008; Moustadraf et al., 2008; Al-
Gamal and Dodo, 2009; Kerrou et al., 2010). Some studies have shown
a
dditional impacts of SLR on aquifer salinization with salinity potentially
reaching very high levels (Carneiro et al., 2010; Niang et al., 2010;
Research Institute for Groundwater, 2011). Although these effects are
expected to be localized, in some cases they will occur in densely
populated areas (Niang et al., 2010). The profitability of irrigated
agriculture in Morocco is expected to decline (under both B1 and A1B
scenarios) owing to increased pumping of groundwater and increased
salinization risk for aquifers (Heidecke and Heckelei, 2010).
The capacity of groundwater delivery systems to meet demand may take
on increasing importance with climate change (Calow and MacDonald,
2009). Where groundwater pumping and delivery infrastructure are poor,
and the number of point sources limited, prolonged pumping can lead
to periodic drawdowns and increased failure of water delivery systems
or increased saline intrusion (Moustadraf et al., 2008). To the extent
that drought conditions become more prevalent in Africa with climate
change, stress on groundwater delivery infrastructures will increase.
Future development of groundwater resources to address direct and
indirect impacts of climate change, population growth, industrialization,
and expansion of irrigated agriculture will require much more knowledge
of groundwater resources and aquifer recharge potentials than currently
exists in Africa. Observational data on groundwater resources in Africa
are extremely limited and significant effort needs to be expended to
assess groundwater recharge potential across the continent (Taylor et
al., 2009). A preliminary analysis by MacDonald et al. (2012) indicates
that total groundwater storage in Africa is 0.66 million km
3
, which is
“more than 100 times the annual renewable freshwater resources, and
20 times the freshwater stored in African lakes.” However, borehole
yields are variable and in many places water yields are relatively low.
Detailed analysis of groundwater conditions for water resource planning
would need to consider these constraints.
22.3.4. Agriculture and Food Security
Africa’s food production systems are among the world’s most vulnerable
because of extensive reliance on rainfed crop production, high intra- and
inter-seasonal climate variability, recurrent droughts and floods that
affect both crops and livestock, and persistent poverty that limits the
capacity to adapt (Boko et al., 2007). In the near term, better managing
risks associated with climate variability may help to build adaptive
capacities for climate change (Washington et al., 2006; Cooper et al., 2008;
Funk et al., 2008). However, agriculture in Africa will face significant
challenges in adapting to climate changes projected to occur by mid-
century, as negative effects of high temperatures become increasingly
prominent under an A1B scenario (Battisti and Naylor, 2009; Burke et
al., 2009a), thus increasing the likelihood of diminished yield potential
of major crops in Africa (Schlenker and Lobell, 2010; Sultan et al., 2013).
Changes in growing season length are possible, with a tendency toward
reduced growing season length (Thornton et al., 2011), though with
potential for some areas to experience longer growing seasons (Cook
and Vizy, 2012). The composition of farming systems from mixed crop-
livestock to more livestock dominated food production may occur as a
result of reduced growing season length for annual crops and increases
in the frequency and prevalence of failed seasons (Jones and Thornton,
2009; Thornton et al., 2010). Transition zones, where livestock keeping
i
s projected to replace mixed crop-livestock systems by 2050, include
the West African Sahel and coastal and mid-altitude areas in eastern
and southeastern Africa (Jones and Thornton, 2009), areas that currently
support 35 million people and are chronically food insecure.
22.3.4.1. Crops
Climate change is very likely to have an overall negative effect on yields
of major cereal crops across Africa, with strong regional variability in
the degree of yield reduction (see also Section 7.3.2.1) (Liu et al., 2008;
Lobell et al., 2008, 2011; Walker and Schulze, 2008; Thornton et al.,
2009a; Roudier et al., 2011; Berg et al., 2013) (high confidence). One
exception is in eastern Africa where maize production could benefit from
warming at high elevation locations (A1FI scenario) (Thornton et al.,
2009a), although the majority of current maize production occurs at
lower elevations, thereby implying a potential change in the distribution
of maize cropping. Maize-based systems, particularly in southern Africa,
are among the most vulnerable to climate change (Lobell et al., 2008).
Estimated yield losses at mid-century range from 18% for southern
Africa (Zinyengere et al., 2013) to 22% aggregated across sub-Saharan
Africa, with yield losses for South Africa and Zimbabwe in excess of
30% (Schlenker and Lobell, 2010). Simulations that combine all regions
south of the Sahara suggest consistently negative effects of climate
change on major cereal crops in Africa, ranging from 2% for sorghum to
35% for wheat by 2050 under an A2 scenario (Nelson et al., 2009). Studies
in North Africa by Eid et al. (2007), Hegazy et al. (2008), Drine (2011),
and Mougou et al. (2011) also indicate a high vulnerability of wheat
production to projected warming trends. In West Africa, temperature
increases above 2°C (relative to a 1961–1990 baseline) are estimated
to counteract positive effects on millet and sorghum yields of increased
precipitation (for B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios; Figure 22-5), with negative
effects stronger in the savannah than in the Sahel, and with modern
cereal varieties compared with traditional ones (Sultan et al., 2013).
Several recent studies since the AR4 indicate that climate change will
have variable impacts on non-cereal crops, with both production losses
and gains possible (low confidence). Cassava yields in eastern Africa
are estimated to moderately increase up to the 2030s assuming CO
2
fertilization and under a range of low to high emissions scenarios (Liu
et al., 2008), findings that were similar to those of Lobell et al. (2008).
Suitability for growing cassava is estimated to increase with the greatest
improvement in suitability in eastern and central Africa (A1B scenario)
(Jarvis et al., 2012). However, Schlenker and Lobell (2010) estimated
negative impacts from climate change on cassava at mid-century,
although with impacts estimated to be less than those for cereal crops.
Given cassava’s hardiness to higher temperatures and sporadic rainfall
relative to many cereal crops, it may provide a potential option for crop
22
Africa Chapter 22
1219
substitution of cereals as an adaptation response to climate change
(Jarvis et al., 2012; Rosenthal and Ort, 2012). Bean yields in eastern
Africa are estimated to experience yield reductions by the 2030s under
an intermediate emissions scenario (A1B) (Jarvis et al., 2012) and by
the 2050s under low (B1) and high (A1FI) emissions scenarios (Thornton
et al., 2011). For peanuts, some studies indicate a positive effect from
climate change (A2 and B2 scenarios) (Tingem and Rivington, 2009)
and others a negative one (Lobell et al., 2008; Schlenker and Lobell,
2010). Bambara groundnuts (Vigna subterranea) are estimated to
benefit from moderate climate change (Tingem and Rivington, 2009)
(A2 and B2 scenarios) although the effect could be highly variable
across varieties (Berchie et al., 2012). Banana and plantain production
could decline in West Africa and lowland areas of East Africa, whereas
in highland areas of East Africa it could increase with temperature rise
(Ramirez et al., 2011). Much more research is needed to better establish
climate change impacts on these two crops.
Suitable agro-climatic zones for growing economically important
perennial crops are estimated to significantly diminish, largely as a
result of the effects of rising temperatures (Läderach et al., 2010,
2011a,b,c; Eitzinger et al., 2011a,b). Under an A2 scenario, by mid-
century suitable agro-climatic zones that are currently classified as very
good to good for perennial crops may become more marginal, and what
are currently marginally suitable zones may become unsuitable; the
constriction of crop suitability could be severe in some cases (see Table
22-4). Movement of perennial crops to higher altitudes would serve to
mitigate the loss of suitability at lower altitudes but this option is
limited. Loss of productivity of high-value crops such as tea, coffee, and
cocoa would have detrimental impacts on export earnings.
22.3.4.2. Livestock
Livestock systems in Africa face multiple stressors that can interact with
climate change and variability to amplify the vulnerability of livestock-
keeping communities. These stressors include rangeland degradation;
increased variability in access to water; fragmentation of grazing areas;
sedentarization; changes in land tenure from communal toward private
ownership; in-migration of non-pastoralists into grazing areas; lack of
Crop Suitability change Country Source
Coffee Increased suitability at high latitudes;
decreased suitability at low latitudes
Kenya Läderach
et al. (2010)
Tea Decreased suitability Uganda Eitzinger et al.
(2011a,b)
Increased suitability at high latitudes;
decreased suitability at low latitudes
Kenya
Cocoa Constant or increased suitability at high
latitudes; decreased suitability at low latitudes
Ghana,
Côte d’Ivoire
Läderach
et al. (2011c)
Cashew Increased suitability Ghana,
Côte d’Ivoire
Läderach
et al. (2011a)
Cotton Decreased suitability Ghana,
Côte d’Ivoire
Läderach
et al. (2011b)
Table 22-4 | Projected changes in agro-climatic suitability for perennial crops in Africa
by mid-century under an A2 scenario.
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Chapter 22 Africa
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opportunities to diversify livelihoods; conflict and political crisis;
weak social safety nets; and insecure access to land, markets, and other
resources (Solomon et al., 2007; Smucker and Wisner, 2008; Galvin,
2009; Thornton et al., 2009b; Dougill et al., 2010; Ifejika Speranza, 2010).
(See also Section 7.3.2.4.)
Loss of livestock under prolonged drought conditions is a critical risk
given the extensive rangeland in Africa that is prone to drought. Regions
that are projected to become drier with climate change, such as northern
a
nd southern Africa, are of particular concern (Solomon et al., 2007;
Masike and Urich, 2008; Thornton et al., 2009b; Dougill et al., 2010;
Freier et al., 2012; Schilling et al., 2012). Adequate provision of water
for livestock production could become more difficult under climate
change. For example, Masike and Urich (2009) estimated that the cost
of supplying livestock water from boreholes in Botswana will increase
by 23% by 2050 under an A2 scenario due to increased hours of
groundwater pumping needed to meet livestock water demands under
warmer and drier conditions. Although small in comparison to the water
needed for feed production, drinking water provision for livestock is
critical, and can have a strong impact on overall resource use efficiency
in warm environments (Peden et al., 2009; Descheemaeker et al., 2010,
2011; van Breugel et al., 2010). Livestock production will be indirectly
affected by water scarcity through its impact on crop production and
subsequently the availability of crop residues for livestock feeding.
Thornton et al. (2010) estimated that maize stover availability per head
of cattle will decrease in several East African countries by 2050.
The extent to which increased heat stress associated with climate
change will affect livestock productivity has not been well established,
particularly in the tropics and subtropics (Thornton et al., 2009b), although
a few studies point to the possibility that keeping heat-tolerant livestock
will become more prevalent in response to warming trends. For example,
higher temperatures in lowland areas of Africa could result in reduced
stocking of dairy cows in favor of cattle (Kabubo-Mariara, 2008), a shift
from cattle to sheep and goats (Kabubo-Mariara, 2008; Seo and
Mendelsohn, 2008), and decreasing reliance on poultry (Seo and
Mendelsohn, 2008). Livestock-keeping in highland areas of east Africa,
which is currently cold-limited, would potentially benefit from increased
temperatures (Thornton et al., 2010). Lunde and Lindtjørn (2013) challenge
a finding in the AR4 that there is direct proportionality between range-
fed livestock numbers and changes in annual precipitation in Africa.
Their analysis indicates that this relationship may hold in dry environments
but not in humid ones.
22.3.4.3. Agricultural Pests, Diseases, and Weeds
Since the AR4, understanding of how climate change will potentially
affect crop and livestock pests and diseases and agricultural weeds in
Africa is beginning to emerge. Climate change in interaction with other
environmental and production factors could intensify damage to crops
from pests, weeds, and diseases (Section 7.3.2.3).
Warming in highland regions of eastern Africa could lead to range
expansion of crop pests into cold-limited areas (low confidence). For
example, in highland Arabica coffee-producing areas of eastern Africa,
warming trends may result in the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus
hampei) becoming a serious threat in coffee-growing regions of
Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi (Jaramillo et al., 2011).
Temperature increases in highland banana-producing areas of eastern
Africa enhance the risk of altitudinal range expansion of the highly
destructive burrowing nematode, Radopholus similis (Nicholls et al.,
2008); however, no detailed studies have assessed this risk. Ramirez
et al. (2011) estimated that increasing minimum temperatures by
2020 would expand the suitable range of black leaf streak disease
(Mycosphaerella fijiensis) of banana in Angola and Guinea.
Climate change may also affect the distribution of economically important
pests in lowland and dryland areas of Africa (low confidence). Under
A2A and B2A for 2020, Cotter et al. (2012) estimated that changes in
temperature, rainfall, and seasonality will result in more suitable habitats
for Striga hermonthica in central Africa, whereas the Sahel region may
become less suitable for this weed. Striga weed infestations are a major
cause of cereal yield reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change
could also lead to an overall decrease in the suitable range of major
cassava pests—whitefly, cassava brown streak virus, cassava mosaic
geminivirus, and cassava mealybug (Jarvis et al., 2012)—although
southeast Africa and Madagascar are estimated to experience increased
suitability for cassava pests (Bellotti et al., 2012). In the case of livestock,
Olwoch et al. (2008) estimated that the distribution of the main tick
vector species (Rhipicephalus appendiculatus) of East Coast fever disease
in cattle could be altered by a 2°C temperature increase over mean
annual temperatures throughout the 1990s, and changes in mean
precipitation resulting in the climatically suitable range of the tick shifting
southward. However, a number of environmental and socioeconomic
factors (e.g., habitat destruction, land use and cover change, and host
density) in addition to climatic ones influence tick distribution and need
to be considered in assigning causality (Rogers and Randolph, 2006).
22.3.4.4. Fisheries
Fisheries are an important source of food security in Africa. Capture
fisheries (marine and inland) and aquaculture combined contribute
more than one-third of Africa’s animal protein intake (Welcomme,
2011), while in some coastal countries fish contribute up to two-thirds
of total animal protein intake (Allison et al., 2009). Demand for fish is
projected to increase substantially in Africa over the next few decades
(De Silva and Soto, 2009). To meet fish food demand by 2020, De Silva
and Soto (2009) estimated that aquaculture production in Africa would
have to increase nearly 500%.
The vulnerability of national economies to climate change impacts on
fisheries can be linked to exposure to the physical effects of climate
change, the sensitivity of the country to impacts on fisheries, and
adaptive capacity within the country (Allison et al., 2009). In an analysis
of fisheries in 132 countries, Allison et al. (2009) estimated that two-
thirds of the most vulnerable countries were in Africa. Among these
countries, the most vulnerable were Angola, Democratic Republic of
Congo, Mauritania, and Senegal, due to the importance of fisheries to
the poor and the close link between climate variability and fisheries
production. Coastal countries of West Africa will experience a significant
negative impact from climate change. Lam et al. (2012) projected that
by 2050 (under an A1B scenario) the annual landed value of fish for
22
Africa Chapter 22
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that region is estimated to decline by 21%, resulting in a nearly 50%
decline in fisheries-related employment and a total annual loss of
US$311 million to the region’s economy.
22.3.4.5. Food Security
Food security in Africa faces multiple threats stemming from entrenched
poverty, environmental degradation, rapid urbanization, high population
g
rowth rates, and climate change and variability. The intertwined issues
of markets and food security have emerged as an important issue in
Africa and elsewhere in the developing world since the AR4. Price spikes
for globally traded food commodities in 2007–2008 and food price
volatility and higher overall food prices in subsequent years have
undercut recent gains in food security across Africa (Brown et al., 2009;
Hadley et al., 2011; Mason et al., 2011; Tawodzera, 2011; Alem and
Söderbom, 2012; Levine, 2012). Among the most affected groups are
the urban poor, who typically allocate more than half of their income
to food purchases (Cohen and Garrett, 2010; Crush and Frayne, 2010).
The proportion of smallholder farmers who are net food buyers of staple
grains exceeds 50% in Mozambique, Kenya, and Ethiopia (Jayne et al.,
2006); thus food security of rural producers is also sensitive to food
spikes, particularly in the case of female-headed households, which
generally have fewer assets than male-headed households (Kumar and
Quisumbing, 2011). Although the recent spike in global food prices can
be attributed to a convergence of several factors, the intensification of
climate change impacts could become more important in the future in
terms of exerting upward pressure on food prices of basic cereals
(Nelson et al., 2009; Hertel et al., 2010), which would have serious
implications for Africa’s food security. As the recent wave of food price
crises demonstrates, factors in other regions profoundly impact food
security in Africa. Much more research is needed to understand better
the potential interactions between climate change and other key drivers
of food prices that act at national, regional, and global scales. (See also
Section 7.2.2.)
Africa is undergoing rapid urbanization and subsequent transformation
of its food systems to accommodate changes in food processing and
marketing as well as in food consumption patterns. Considering the
increasing reliance on purchased food in urban areas, approaches for
addressing the impacts of climate change on food security will need to
e
ncompass a food systems approach (production as well as processing,
transport, storage, and preparation) that moves food from production
to consumption (Battersby, 2012). Weaknesses in the food system may
be exacerbated by climate change in the region as high temperatures
increase spoilage and the potential for increased flooding places food
transportation infrastructure at higher risk of damage. In this respect, high
post-harvest losses in Africa resulting in a large part from inadequate
transport and storage infrastructure (Godfray et al., 2010; Parfitt et al.,
2010) are an important concern.
22.3.5. Health
22.3.5.1. Introduction
Africa currently experiences high burdens of health outcomes whose
incidence and geographic range could be affected by changing
temperature and precipitation patterns, including malnutrition, diarrheal
diseases, and malaria and other vector-borne diseases, with most of the
impact on women and children (WHO, 2013a). In 2010, there were
429,000 to 772,000 deaths from malaria in Africa, continuing a slow
decline since the early to mid-2000s (WHO, 2012). There are insufficient
data series to assess trends in incidence in most affected countries in
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ 22.1 | How could climate change impact food security in Africa?
Food security is composed of availability (is enough food produced?), access (can people get it, and afford it?),
utilization (how local conditions bear on people’s nutritional uptake from food), and stability (is the supply and
access ensured?). Strong consensus exists that climate change will have a significantly negative impact on all these
aspects of food security in Africa.
Food availability could be threatened through direct climate impacts on crops and livestock from increased flooding,
drought, shifts in the timing and amount of rainfall, and high temperatures, or indirectly through increased soil
erosion from more frequent heavy storms or through increased pest and disease pressure on crops and livestock
caused by warmer temperatures and other changes in climatic conditions. Food access could be threatened by
climate change impacts on productivity in important cereal-producing regions of the world, which, along with
other factors, could raise food prices and erode the ability of the poor in Africa to afford purchased food. Access
is also threatened by extreme events that impair food transport and other food system infrastructure. Climate
change could impact food utilization through increased disease burden that reduces the ability of the human body
to absorb nutrients from food. Warmer and more humid conditions caused by climate change could impact food
availability and utilization through increased risk of spoilage of fresh food and pest and pathogen damage to
stored foods (cereals, pulses, tubers) that reduces both food availability and quality. Stability could be affected by
changes in availability and access that are linked to climatic and other factors.
22
Chapter 22 Africa
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Africa. Parasite prevalence rates in children younger than 5 years of age
are highest in poorer populations and rural areas; factors increasing
vulnerability include living in housing with little mosquito protection
and limited access to health care facilities offering effective diagnostic
testing and treatment. Of the 3.6 million annual childhood deaths in
Africa, 11% are due to diarrheal diseases (Liu et al., 2012).
Drivers of these and other climate-relevant health outcomes include
inadequate human and financial resources, inadequate public health
a
nd health care systems, insufficient access to safe water and improved
sanitation, food insecurity, and poor governance. Although progress has
been made on improving safe water and sanitation coverage, sub-Saharan
Africa still has the lowest coverage, highlighting high vulnerability to
the health risks of climate change (UNICEF and WHO, 2008, 2012).
Vulnerabilities also arise from policies and measures implemented in
other sectors, including adaptation and mitigation options. Collaboration
between sectors is essential. For example, the construction of the
Akosombo Dam in the 1960s to create Lake Volta in Ghana was associated
with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of schistosomiasis (Scott
et al., 1982).
22.3.5.2. Food- and Water-Borne Diseases
Cholera is primarily associated with poor sanitation, poor governance,
and poverty, with associations with weather and climate variability
suggesting possible changes in incidence and geographic range with
climate change (Rodó et al., 2002; Koelle et al., 2005; Olago et al., 2007;
Murray et al., 2012). The frequency and duration of cholera outbreaks
are associated with heavy rainfall in Ghana, Senegal, other coastal West
African countries, and South Africa, with a possible association with the
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (de Magny et al., 2007, 2012;
Mendelsohn and Dawson, 2008). In Zanzibar, Tanzania, and Zambia, an
increase in temperature or rainfall increases the number of cholera
cases (Luque Fernández et al., 2009; Reyburn et al., 2011). The worst
outbreak of cholera in recent African history occurred in Zimbabwe
from August 2008 to June 2009. The epidemic was associated with the
rainy season and caused more than 92,000 cases and 4000 deaths.
Contamination of water sources spread the disease (Mason, 2009). Poor
governance, poor infrastructure, limited human resources, and underlying
population susceptibility (high burden of malnutrition) contributed to
the severity and extent of the outbreak (Murray et al., 2012). Other
mechanisms for increases in cholera incidence are described in Section
11.5.2.1. As discussed in Section 22.2 there are projected increases in
precipitation in areas in Africa, for example West Africa where cholera
is already endemic. This possibly will lead to more frequent cholera
outbreaks in the sub-regions affected. However, further research is needed
to quantify the climatic impacts.
22.3.5.3. Nutrition
Detailed spatial analyses of climate and health dynamics among children
in Mali and Kenya suggest associations between livelihoods and
measures of malnutrition, and between weather variables and stunting
(Grace et al., 2012; Jankowska et al., 2012). Projections of climate
and demographic change to 2025 for Mali (based on 2010–2039
climatology from the Famine Early Warning System Network FCLIM
method) suggest approximately 250,000 children will suffer stunting,
nearly 200,000 will be malnourished, and more than 100,000 will become
anemic, assuming constant morbidity levels; the authors conclude that
climate change will cause a statistically significant proportion of stunted
children (Jankowska et al., 2012).
Using a process-driven approach, Lloyd et al. (2011) projected future
child malnutrition (as measured by severe stunting) in 2050 for four
r
egions in sub-Saharan Africa, taking into consideration food and non-
food (socioeconomic) causes, and using regional scenario data based
on the A2 scenario. Current baseline prevalence rates of severe stunting
were 12 to 20%. Considering only future socioeconomic change, the
prevalence of severe stunting in 2050 would be 7 to 17% (e.g., a net
decline). However, including climate change, the prevalence of severe
stunting would be 9 to 22%, or an increase of 31 to 55% in the relative
percent of children severely stunted. Western sub-Saharan Africa was
projected to experience a decline in severe stunting from 16% at
present to 9% in 2050 when considering socioeconomic and climate
change. Projected changes for central, south, and east sub-Saharan Africa
are close to current prevalence rates, indicating climate change would
counteract the beneficial consequences of socioeconomic development.
Local economic activity and food accessibility can reduce the incidence
of malnutrition (Funk et al., 2008; Rowhani et al., 2011).
22.3.5.4. Vector-Borne Diseases
and Other Climate-Sensitive Health Outcomes
A wide range of vector-borne diseases contribute to premature morbidity
and mortality in Africa, including malaria, leishmaniasis, Rift Valley fever,
as well as tick- and rodent-borne diseases.
22.3.5.4.1. Malaria
Weather and climate are among the environmental, social, and economic
determinants of the geographic range and incidence of malaria (Reiter,
2008). The association between temperature and malaria varies regionally
(Chaves and Koenraadt, 2010; Paaijmans et al., 2010a; Alonso et al.,
2011; Gilioli and Mariani, 2011). Malaria transmission peaks at 25°C
and declines above 28°C (Lunde et al., 2013; Mordecai et al., 2013).
Total precipitation, rainfall patterns, temperature variability, and the
water temperature of breeding sites are expected to alter disease
susceptibility (Bomblies and Eltahir, 2010; Paaijmans et al., 2010b;
Afrane et al., 2012; Blanford et al., 2013; Lyons et al., 2013). ENSO
events also may contribute to malaria epidemics (Mabaso et al., 2007;
Ototo et al., 2011). The complexity of the malaria transmission cycle
makes it difficult to determine whether the distribution of the pathogen
and vector are already changing due to climate change. Other factors
such as the Indian Ocean Dipole have been proposed to affect malaria
incidence (Hashizume et al., 2009; Chaves et al., 2012; Hashizume et
al., 2012).
Climate change is expected to affect the geographic range and incidence
of malaria, particularly along the current edges of its distribution, with
contractions and expansions, and increasing and decreasing incidence
22
Africa Chapter 22
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(Yé et al., 2007; Peterson, 2009; Parham and Michael, 2010; Paaijmans
et al., 2010b, 2012; Alonso et al., 2011; Egbendewe-Mondzozo et al.,
2011; Chaves et al., 2012; Ermert et al., 2012; Parham et al., 2012),
depending on other drivers, such as public health interventions, factors
influencing the geographic range and reproductive potential of malaria
vectors, land use change (e.g., deforestation), and drug resistance, as
well as the interactions of these drivers with weather and climate
p
atterns (Chaves et al., 2008; Kelly-Hope et al., 2009; Paaijmans et al.,
2009; Saugeon et al., 2009; Artzy-Randrup et al., 2010; Dondorp et al.,
2010; Gething et al., 2010; Jackson et al., 2010; Kulkarni et al., 2010;
Loha and Lindtjørn, 2010; Tonnang et al., 2010; Caminade et al., 2011;
Omumbo et al., 2011; Stern et al., 2011; Afrane et al., 2012; Edlund et
al., 2012; Ermert et al., 2012; Githeko et al., 2012; Himeidan and Kweka,
2012; Jima et al., 2012; Lyons et al., 2012; Stryker and Bomblies, 2012;
Mordecai et al., 2013). Movement of the parasite into new regions is
associated with epidemics with high morbidity and mortality. Because
various Anopheles species are adapted to different climatic conditions,
changing weather and climate patterns could affect species composition
differentially, which could in turn affect malaria transmission (Afrane
et al., 2012; Lyons et al., 2013).
Consensus is growing that highland areas, especially in East Africa, will
experience increased malaria epidemics, with areas above 2000 m, where
temperatures are currently too low to support malaria transmission,
particularly affected (Pascual et al., 2006; Peterson, 2009; Gething et
al., 2010; Lou and Zhao, 2010; Paaijmans et al., 2010a; Ermert et al.,
2012). Reasons for different projections across models include use of
different scenarios; use of global versus regional climate models (Ermert
et al., 2012); the need for finer-scale and higher-resolution models of
the sharp climate variations with altitude (Bouma et al., 2011); and the
extent to malaria transmission and the drivers of its geographic range
and incidence of malaria respond to and interact with climate change.
22.3.5.4.2. Leishmaniasis
Directly or indirectly, climate change may increase the incidence and
geographic range of leishmaniasis, a highly neglected disease that has
recently become a significant health problem in northern Africa (Postigo,
2010), with a rising concern in western Africa because of coinfection
with HIV (Kimutai et al., 2006). The epidemiology of the disease appears
to be changing (Dondji, 2001; Yiougo et al., 2007; WHO, 2009; Postigo,
2010). During the 20th century, zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis
emerged as an epidemic disease in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, and
is now endemic (Salah et al., 2007; Aoun et al., 2008; Rhajaoui, 2011;
Toumi et al., 2012; Bounoua et al., 2013). Previously an urban disease
in Algeria, leishmaniasis now has a peri-urban distribution linked to
changes in the distribution of the rodent host and of the vector since
the early 1990s (Aoun et al., 2008). Cutaneous leishmaniasis has
expanded its range from its historical focus at Biskra, Algeria, into the
semi-arid steppe, with an associated upward trend in reported cases.
In Morocco, sporadic cases of leishmania major (vector Phlebotomus
papatasi) appeared early in the 21st century; since that time there have
been occasional epidemics of up to 2000 cases, interspersed with long
periods with few or no cases (Rhajaoui, 2011). Outbreaks of zoonotic
cutaneous leishmaniasis have become more frequent in Tunisia (where
it emerged as an epidemic disease in 1991) (Salah et al., 2007; Toumi
et al., 2012). The disease has since spread to adjacent areas in West
Africa and East Africa (Dondji, 2001; Yiougo et al., 2007; WHO, 2009).
Disease incidence is associated with rainfall and minimum temperature
(Toumi et al., 2012; Bounoua et al., 2013). Relationships between decadal
shifts over 1990–2009 in northwest Algeria and northeast Morocco in
the number of cases and climate indicators suggested increased minimum
temperatures created conditions suitable for endemicity (Bounoua et
al., 2013). Environmental modifications, such as construction of dams,
can change the temperature and humidity of the soil and thus affect
v
egetation that may result in changes in the composition and density
of sandfly species and rodent vectors. More research, however, is
needed to quantify the climate related impacts because there are
multiple underlying factors.
22.3.5.4.3. Rift Valley fever
Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemics in the Horn of Africa are associated
with altered rainfall patterns. Additional climate variability and change
could further increase its incidence and spread. RVF is endemic in
numerous African countries, with sporadic repeated epidemics.
Epidemics in 2006–2007 in the Horn of Africa (Nguku et al., 2007; WHO,
2007; Adam et al., 2010; Andriamandimby et al., 2010; Hightower et al.,
2012) and southern Africa were associated with heavy rainfall (Chevalier
et al., 2011), strengthening earlier analyses by Anyamba et al. (2009)
showing that RVF epizootics and epidemics are closely linked to the
occurrence of the warm phase of ENSO and La Niña events (Linthicum et
al., 1999; Anyamba et al., 2012) and elevated Indian Ocean temperatures.
These conditions lead to heavy rainfall and flooding of habitats suitable
for the production of the immature Aedes and Culex mosquitoes that serve
as the primary RVF virus vectors in East Africa. Flooding of mosquito
habitats also may introduce the virus into domestic animal populations.
22.3.5.4.4. Ticks and tick-borne diseases
Changing weather patterns could expand the distribution of ticks
causing animal disease, particularly in East and South Africa. Ticks carry
theileriosis (East Coast fever), which causes anemia and skin damage
that expose cattle to secondary infections. Habitat destruction, land use
and cover change, and host density also affect tick distribution (Rogers
and Randolph, 2006). Using a climate envelope and a species prediction
model, Olwoch et al. (2007) projected that by the 2020s, under the A2
scenario, East Africa and South Africa would be particularly vulnerable
to climate-related changes in tick distributions and tick-borne diseases:
more than 50% of the 30 Rhipicephalus species examined showed
significant range expansion and shifts. More than 70% of this range
expansion was found in tick species of economic importance.
22.3.5.4.5. Schistosomiasis
Worldwide, approximately 243 million people required treatment for
schistosomiasis in 2011, of which 90% lived in underdeveloped areas
of Africa (WHO, 2013b). Water resource development, such as irrigation
dams recommended for adaptation in agriculture, can amplify the risk
of schistosomiasis (Huang and Manderson, 1992; Hunter et al., 1993;
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1224
Jobin, 1999). Migration and sanitation play a significant role in the
spread of schistosomiasis from rural areas to urban environments (Babiker
et al., 1985; WHO, 2013b). Temperature and precipitation patterns may
play a role in transmission (Odongo-Aginya et al., 2008; Huang et al.,
2011; Mutuku et al., 2011). Projections for the period 2070–2099, under
A2 and B2 emission scenarios, suggest that although the geographic
areas suitable for transmission will increase with climate change, snail
regions are expected to contract and/or move to cooler areas; these
results highlight the importance of understanding how climate change
c
ould alter snail habitats when projecting future human schistosomiasis
prevalence under different scenarios (Stensgaard et al., 2011).
22.3.5.4.6. Meningococcal meningitis
There is a strong environmental relationship between the seasonal cycle
of meningococcal meningitis and climate, including a relationship
between the seasonal pattern of the Harmattan dusty winds and onset
of disease. Transmission of meningitis occurs throughout Africa in the
dry season and coincides with periods of very low humidity and wind-
driven dusty conditions, ending with the onset of the rains (Molesworth
et al., 2003). Research corroborates earlier hypothesized relationships
between weather and meningitis (Yaka et al., 2008; Palmgren, 2009;
Roberts, 2010; Dukić et al., 2012; Agier et al., 2013). In the northern
region of Ghana, exposure to smoke from cooking fires increased the
risk of contracting meningococcal meningitis (Hodgson et al., 2001).
This increased risk suggests that exposure to elevated concentrations
of air pollutants, such as carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter,
may be linked to illness. More research is needed to clarify the possible
impact of climate change on atmospheric concentrations of aerosols
and particulates that can impact human health and any associations
between meningitis and these aerosols and particles. The relationship
between the environment and the location of the epidemics suggest
connections between epidemics and regional climate variability
(Molesworth et al., 2003; Sultan et al., 2005; Thomson et al., 2006),
which may allow for early warning systems for predicting the location
and onset of epidemics.
22.3.5.4.7. Hantavirus
Novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been
identified in some insectivores (shrews and a mole) in Africa (Klempa,
2009), with suggestions that weather and climate, among other
drivers, could affect natural reservoirs and their geographic range, and
thus alter species composition in ways that could be epidemiologically
important (Klempa, 2009).
22.3.5.4.8. Other health issues
Research into other health issues has begun. It has been noted that any
increase in food insecurity due to climate change would be expected
to further compromise the poor nutrition of people living with HIV/AIDs
(Drimie and Gillespie, 2010). Laboratory studies suggest that the
geographic range of the tsetse fly (Glossina species), the vector of human
and animal trypanosomiasis in Africa, may be reduced with climate
change (Terblanche et al., 2008). More studies are needed to clarify the
role of climate change on HIV and other disease vectors.
22.3.5.4.9. Heat waves and high ambient temperatures
Heat waves and heat-related health effects are only beginning to attract
attention in Africa. High ambient temperatures are associated with
increased mortality in Ghana, Burkina Faso, and Nairobi with associations
v
arying by age, gender, and cause of death (Azongo et al., 2012; Diboulo
et al., 2012; Egondi et al., 2012). Children are particularly at risk. Heat-
related health effects also may be of concern in West and southern
Africa (Dapi et al., 2010; Mathee et al., 2010). Section 11.4.1 assesses
the literature on the health impacts of heat waves and high ambient
temperatures. Low ambient temperatures are associated with mortality
in Nairobi and Tanzania (Egondi et al., 2012; Mrema et al., 2012).
Chapter 11 discusses the relationship between heat and work capacity
loss. This is an important issue for Africa because of the number of
workers engaged in agriculture.
22.3.5.4.10. Air quality
Climate change is anticipated to affect the sources of air pollutants as
well as the ability of pollutants to be dispersed in the atmosphere
(Denman et al., 2007). Assessments of the impacts of projected climate
change on atmospheric concentrations of aerosols and particules that
can adversely affect human health indicate that changes in surface
temperature, land cover, and lightning may alter natural sources of ozone
precursor gases and consequently ozone levels over Africa (Stevenson
et al., 2005; Brasseur et al., 2006; Zeng et al., 2008). However, insufficient
climate and emissions data for Africa prevent a more comprehensive
assessment and further research is needed to better understand the
implications of climate change on air quality in Africa.
22.3.6. Urbanization
The urban population in Africa is projected to triple by 2050, increasing
by 0.8 billion (UN DESA Population Division, 2010). African countries
are experiencing some of the world’s highest urbanization rates (UN-
HABITAT, 2008). Many of Africa’s evolving cities are unplanned and have
been associated with growth of informal settlements, inadequate housing
and basic services, and urban poverty (Yuen and Kumssa, 2011).
7
Climate change could affect the size and characteristics of rural and
urban human settlements in Africa because the scale and type of rural-
urban migration are partially driven by climate change (UN-HABITAT
and UNEP, 2010; Yuen and Kumssa, 2011). The majority of migration
flows observed in response to environmental change are within country
boundaries (Jäger et al., 2009; Tacoli, 2009). For large urban centers
located on mega-deltas (e.g., Alexandria in Egypt in the Nile delta, and
Benin City, Port Harcourt, and Aba in Nigeria in the Niger delta),
7
However, community-driven upgrading may contribute to reducing the vulnerability
of such informal areas (for more detail, see Chapter 8).
22
Africa Chapter 22
1225
urbanization through migration may also lead to increasing numbers
of people vulnerable to coastal climate change impacts (Seto, 2011).
Floods are exerting considerable impacts on cities and smaller urban
centers in many African nations; for example, heavy rains in East Africa
in 2002 caused floods and mudslides, which forced tens of thousands
to leave their homes in Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi, Tanzania, and Uganda,
and the very serious floods in Port Harcourt and Addis Ababa in 2006
(Douglas et al., 2008).
I
n addition, SLR along coastal zones including coastal settlements could
disrupt economic activities such as tourism and fisheries (Naidu et al.,
2006; Kebede and Nicholls, 2012; Kebede et al., 2012). More than a
quarter of Africa’s population lives within 100 km of the coast and more
than half of Africa’s total population living in low-elevation coastal
zones is urban, accounting for 11.5% of the total urban population of
the continent (UN-HABITAT, 2008).
In eastern Africa, an assessment of the impact of coastal flooding due
to SLR in Kenya found that, by 2030, 10,000 to 86,000 people would be
affected, with associated economic costs ranging between US$7 million
and US$58 million (SEI, 2009). Detailed assessments of damages arising
from extreme events have also been made for some coastal cities,
including Mombasa and Dar-es-Salaam. In Mombasa, by 2030 the
population and assets at risk of 1-in-100-year return period extreme water
levels is estimated to be between 170,700 and 266,300 inhabitants, while
economic assets at risk are between US$0.68 billion and US$1.06 billion
(Kebede et al., 2012). In Dar-es-Salaam, the population and economic
assets at risk of 1-in-100-year return period extreme water levels by 2030
range between 30,300 and 110,000 inhabitants and US$35.6 million to
US$404.1 million (Kebede and Nicholls, 2012). For both city assessments,
the breadth of these ranges encompasses three different population
growth scenarios and four different SLR scenarios (low (B1), medium
(A1B), high (A1FI), and Rahmstorf (based on Rahmstorf, 2007)); these
four SLR scenarios were also the basis for the broader assessment of
the coast of Kenya (SEI, 2009). The scale of the damages projected in
the city-specific studies highlights the risks of extremes in the context
of projected SLR.
In southern Africa, urban climate change risk assessments have been
made at the regional scale (Theron and Rossouw, 2008) as well as at the
city level for Durban, Cape Town, and the uMhlathuze local municipality.
For these cities, risk assessments have focused on a broad range of
sectors, including business and tourism; air quality, heath, and food
security; infrastructure and services; biodiversity; and water resources
(Naidu et al., 2006; Cartwright, 2008; Zitholele Consulting, 2009).
Assessments for western Africa (Appeaning Addo et al., 2008; Niang et
al., 2010) and northern Africa (Snoussi et al., 2009; World Bank, 2011)
share similarities with those for eastern and southern Africa. For
instance, it was suggested that by the end of the 21st century, about
23%, 42%, and 49% of the total area of coastal governorates of the Nile
Delta would be susceptible to inundation under the A1FI, Rahmstorf, and
Pfeffer scenarios of SLR. It was also suggested that a considerable
proportion of these areas (ranging between 32 and 54%) are currently
either wetland or undeveloped areas (Hassaan and Abdrabo, 2013).
Another study, assessing the economic impacts of SLR on the Nile Delta,
suggested that losses in terms of housing and road would range
between 1 and 2 billion EGP in 2030 and between 2 and 16 billion EGP
in 2060 under the A1FI and B1 emissions scenarios as well as current
SLR trends (Smith et al., 2013).
African cities and towns represent highly vulnerable locations to the
impacts of climate change and climate variability (Boko et al., 2007;
Diagne, 2007; Dossou and Gléhouenou-Dossou, 2007; Douglas et al.,
2008; Adelekan, 2010; Kithiia, 2011). Rapid rates of urbanization
represent a burden on the economies of African urban areas, due to the
m
assive investments needed to create job opportunities and provide
infrastructure and services. Basic infrastructure services are not keeping
up with urban growth, which has resulted in a decline in the coverage of
many services, compared to 1990 levels (Banerjee et al., 2007). Squatter
and poor areas typically lack provisions to reduce flood risks or to
manage floods when they happen (Douglas et al., 2008).
African small- and medium-sized cities have limited adaptive capacity
to deal not only with future climate impacts but also with the current
range of climate variability (Satterthwaite et al., 2009; UN-HABITAT,
2011; for more detail, see Chapters 5 and 8). African cities, despite
frequently having more services compared to rural areas (e.g., piped water,
sanitation, schools, and health care) that lead to human life spans above
their respective national averages, show a shortfall in infrastructure due
to low quality and short lifespan which may be of particular concern,
when climate change impacts are taken into consideration (Satterthwaite
et al., 2009). It is not possible, however, “to climate-proof infrastructure
that is not there” (Satterthwaite et al., 2009). At the same time, hard
infrastructural responses such as seawalls and channelized drainage
lines are costly and can be maladaptive (Dossou and Gléhouenou-Dossou,
2007; Douglas et al., 2008; Kithiia and Lyth, 2011).
High levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity result from
structural factors, particularly local governments with poor capacities
and resources (Kithiia, 2011). Weak local government creates and
exacerbates problems including the lack of appropriate regulatory
structures and mandates; poor or no planning; lack of or poor data; lack
of disaster risk reduction strategies; poor servicing and infrastructure
(particularly waste management and drainage); uncontrolled settlement
of high-risk areas such as floodplains, wetlands, and coastlines; ecosystem
degradation; competing development priorities and timelines; and a
lack of coordination among government agencies (AMCEN and UNEP,
2006; Diagne, 2007; Dossou and Gléhouenou-Dossou, 2007; Mukheibir
and Ziervogel, 2007; Douglas et al., 2008; Roberts, 2008; Adelekan,
2010; Kithiia and Dowling, 2010; Kithiia, 2011).
22.4. Adaptation
22.4.1. Introduction
Since 2007, Africa has gained experience in conceptualizing, planning,
and beginning to implement and support adaptation activities, from
local to national levels and across a growing range of sectors (Sections
22.4.4-5). However, across the continent, most of the adaptation to
climate variability and change is reactive in response to short-term
motivations, is occurring autonomously at the individual/household level,
and lacks support from government stakeholders and policies (Vermuelen
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1226
et al., 2008; Ziervogel et al., 2008; Berrang-Ford et al., 2011). A complex
web of interacting barriers to local-level adaptation, manifesting from
national to local scales, both constrains and highlights potential limits
to adaptation (Section 22.4.6).
2
2.4.2. Adaptation Needs, Gaps, and Adaptive Capacity
Africa’s urgent adaptation needs stem from the continent’s foremost
s
ensitivity and vulnerability to climate change, together with its low
levels of adaptive capacity (Ludi et al., 2012; see also Section 22.3).
While overall adaptive capacity is considered low in Africa because of
economic, demographic, health, education, infrastructure, governance,
and natural factors, levels vary within countries and across sub-regions,
with some indication of higher adaptive capacity in North Africa and
some other countries; individual or household level adaptive capacity
depends, in addition to functional institutions and access to assets, on
the ability of people to make informed decisions to respond to climatic
and other changes (Vincent, 2007; Ludi et al., 2012).
Inherent adaptation-related strengths in Africa include the continent’s
wealth in natural resources, well-developed social networks, and
longstanding traditional mechanisms of managing variability through, for
example, crop and livelihood diversification, migration, and small-scale
enterprises, all of which are underpinned by local or indigenous knowledge
systems for sustainable resource management (Eyong, 2007; Nyong et
al., 2007; UNFCCC, 2007; Cooper et al., 2008; Macchi et al., 2008; Nielsen,
2010; Castro et al., 2012). However, it is uncertain to what extent these
strategies will be capable of dealing with future changes, among them
climate change and its interaction with other development processes
(Leary et al., 2008b; Paavola, 2008; van Aalst et al., 2008; Conway, 2009;
Jones, 2012; see also Section 22.4.6). Since Africa is extensively exposed
to a range of multiple stressors (Section 22.3) that interact in complex
ways with longer term climate change, adaptation needs are broad,
encompassing institutional, social, physical, and infrastructure needs,
ecosystem services and environmental needs, and financial and capacity
needs.
Making climate change information more reliable and accessible is one
of the most pressing and cross-cutting adaptation needs, but providing
information is insufficient to guarantee adaptation, which requires
behavioural change (Sections 22.4.5.5, 22.4.6). As noted in the AR4 and
emphasized in subsequent literature, monitoring networks in Africa are
insufficient and characterized by sparse coverage and short and
fragmented digitized records, which makes modeling difficult (Boko et
al., 2007; Goulden et al., 2009b; Ziervogel and Zermoglio, 2009; Jalloh
et al., 2011a). Adding to this is the shortage of relevant information and
skills, in particular for downscaling climate models and using scenario
outputs for development and adaptation planning, which is exacerbated
by under-resourcing of meteorological agencies and a lack of in-country
expertise on climate science; and the capacity of civil society and
government organizations to access, interpret, and use climate information
for planning and decisionmaking (Ziervogel and Zermoglio, 2009; Brown
et al., 2010; Ndegwa et al., 2010; Dinku et al., 2011; Jalloh et al., 2011a).
Given its economic dependence on natural resources, most research on
strengthening adaptive capacity in Africa is focused on agriculture-,
forestry-, or fisheries-based livelihoods (Collier et al., 2008; Berrang-
Ford et al., 2011). The rural emphasis is now being expanded through a
growing focus on requirements for enhancing peri-urban and urban
adaptive capacity (Lwasa, 2010; Ricci, 2012). Many African countries
have prioritized the following knowledge needs: vulnerability and
impact assessments with greater continuity in countries; country-
specific socioeconomic scenarios and greater knowledge on costs and
benefits of different adaptation measures; comprehensive programs
that promote adaptation through a more holistic development approach,
i
ncluding integrated programs on desertification, water management,
and irrigation; promoting sustainable agricultural practices and the use
of appropriate technologies and innovations to address shorter growing
seasons, extreme temperatures, droughts, and floods; developing
alternative sources of energy; and approaches to deal with water
shortages, food security, and loss of livelihoods (UNFCCC, 2007; Bryan
et al., 2009; Eriksen and Silva, 2009; Chikozho, 2010; Gbetibouo et al.,
2010b; Jalloh et al., 2011b; Sissoko et al., 2011; AAP, 2012). The literature,
however, stresses the vast variety of contexts that shape adaptation
and adaptive capacity—even when people are faced with the same
climatic changes and livelihood stressors, responses vary greatly
(Cooper et al., 2008; Vermuelen et al., 2008; Ziervogel et al., 2008;
Gbetibouo, 2009; Westerhoff and Smit, 2009).
Despite significant data and vulnerability assessment gaps, the literature
highlights that delayed action on adaptation due to this would not be
in the best interests of building resilience commensurate with the urgent
needs (UNFCCC, 2007; Jobbins, 2011). See Section 22.6.4 for a discussion
of adaptation costs and climate finance.
22.4.3. Adaptation, Equity, and Sustainable Development
Multiple uncertainties in the African context mean that successful
adaptation will depend upon developing resilience in the face of
uncertainty (high confidence) (Adger et al., 2011; Conway, 2011; Ludi
et al., 2012). The limited ability of developmental strategies to counter
current climate risks, in some cases due to significant implementation
challenges related to complex cultural, political, and institutional factors,
has led to an adaptation deficit, which reinforces the desirability for
strong interlinkages between adaptation and development, and for low-
regrets adaptation strategies (see Glossary) that produce developmental
co-benefits (high confidence) (Bauer and Scholz, 2010; Smith et al.,
2011).
Research has highlighted that no single adaptation strategy exists
to meet the needs of all communities and contexts in Africa (high
confidence; see Sections 22.4.4-5). In recognition of the socioeconomic
dimensions of vulnerability (Bauer and Scholz, 2010), the previous focus
on technological solutions to directly address specific impacts is now
evolving toward a broader view that highlights the importance of
building resilience, through social, institutional, policy, knowledge, and
informational approaches (ADF, 2010; Chambwera and Anderson,
2011), as well as on linking the diverse range of adaptation options to
the multiple livelihood-vulnerability risks faced by many people in Africa
(Tschakert and Dietrich, 2010), and on taking into account local
norms and practices in adaptation strategies (Nyong et al., 2007; Ifejika
Speranza et al., 2010; see also Section 22.4.5.4).
22
Africa Chapter 22
1227
Moreover, effective adaptation responses necessitate differentiated and
targeted actions from the local to national levels, given the differentiated
social impacts based on gender, age, disability, ethnicity, geographical
location, livelihood, and migrant status (Tanner and Mitchell, 2008;
IPCC, 2012). Additional attention to equity and social justice aspects in
adaptation efforts in Africa, including the differential distribution of
adaptation benefits and costs, would serve to enhance adaptive capacity
(Burton et al., 2002; Brooks et al., 2005; Thomas and Twyman, 2005;
Madzwamuse, 2010); nevertheless, some valuable experience has been
gained recently on gender-equitable adaptation, human rights-based
approaches, and involvement of vulnerable or marginalized groups such
as indigenous peoples and children, aged and disabled people, and
internally displaced persons and refugees (see Table 22-5; ADF, 2010;
UNICEF, 2010, 2011; Levine et al., 2011; Romero González et al., 2011;
IDS, 2012; Tanner and Seballos, 2012). See also Box CC-GC on Gender
and Climate Change.
22.4.4. Experiences in Building the Governance System
for Adaptation, and Lessons Learned
22.4.4.1. Introduction
Section 22.4.4 assesses progress made in developing policy, planning,
and institutional systems for climate adaptation at regional, national, and
subnational levels in Africa, with some assessment of implementation.
This includes an assessment of community-based adaptation, as an
important local level response, and a consideration of adaptation decision
making and monitoring.
22.4.4.2. Regional and National Adaptation Planning
and Implementation
Regional policies and strategies for adaptation, as well as transboundary
adaptation, are still in their infancy. Early examples include the Climate
Change Strategies and Action Plans being developed by the Southern
African Development Community and the Lake Victoria Basin Committee,
as well as efforts being made by six highly forested Congo basin countries
to coordinate conservation and sustainable forest management of the
central African forest ecosystem, and obtain payments for ecosystem
services (Harmeling et al., 2011; AfDB, 2012).
At the national level, African countries have initiated comprehensive
planning processes for adaptation by developing National Adaptation
Programmes of Action (NAPAs), in the case of the Least Developed
Countries, or National Climate Change Response Strategies (NCCRS);
implementation is, however, lagging and integration with economic and
development planning is limited but growing (high confidence). Prioritized
adaptation measures in the NAPAs tend to focus narrowly on agriculture,
food security, water resources, forestry, and disaster management; and
on projects, technical solutions, education and capacity development,
with little integration with economic planning and poverty reduction
processes (Madzwamuse, 2010; Mamouda, 2011; Pramova et al., 2012).
Only a small percentage of the NAPA activities have been funded to
date, although additional funding is in the pipeline (Prowse et al., 2009;
Madzwamuse, 2010; Mamouda, 2011; Romero González et al., 2011).
Subsequent to the NAPAs and early experience with the NCCRS, there
is some evidence of evolution to a more integrated, multilevel, and
Equitable
adaptation
approach
Key issues to address for
adaptation
Factors that could cause
maladaptation
Opportunities Lessons learned
G
ender-mainstreamed
adaptation in Africa
L
ack of empowerment and
participation in decision making (Patt
e
t al., 2009)
Climate impacts increase women’s
h
ousehold roles, with risk of girls
missing school to assist (Raworth,
2
008; Romero González et al., 2011;
UNDP, 2011b).
M
ale adaptation strategies, e.g.,
migration, risk increasing women’s
vulnerability (Djoudi and Brockhaus,
2
011).
E
mployment opportunities not
suffi ciently extended to women in
a
daptation initiatives (Madzwamuse,
2
010)
F
ailure to incorporate power relations
in adaptation responses (Djoudi and
B
rockhaus, 2011; Romero González et
al., 2011)
W
omen’s aptitude for long-term
thinking, trusting and integrating
s
cientifi c knowledge, and taking
d
ecisions under uncertainty (Patt et
al., 2009)
Potential long-term increase in
w
omen’s empowerment and social
and economic status (Djoudi and
B
rockhaus, 2011)
Women opportunistically using
development projects for adaptation
(
Nielsen, 2010)
S
ecurity of tenure over land and
resource access is critical for enabling
e
nhanced adaptive capacity of women
(
ADF, 2010).
R
esearch on understanding different
adaptive strategies of benefi t for
w
omen and men is needed.
Child-centered
a
pproaches to
adaptation
50% of Africa’s population is under the
a
ge of 20 years (UN DESA Population
Division, 2011), yet their issues are
l
argely absent from adaptation policy
(ADF, 2010).
C
hildren’s differential vulnerability
to projected climate impacts is high,
particularly to hunger, malnutrition,
a
nd disasters (UNICEF, 2007).
Limits to children’s agency related to
p
ower imbalances between children
and adults, and different cultural
c
ontexts (Seballos et al., 2011)
Using approaches that stress agency
a
nd empowerment, and “innovative
energies” of youth; build on targeted
a
daptation initiatives, such as child-
centered disaster risk reduction and
adaptation (ADF, 2010; Seballos et
a
l., 2011)
Positive role of children and youth as
c
hange agents for climate adaptation,
within appropriate enabling
e
nvironment
Child-sensitive programs and policies
c
an reduce risks children face from
disasters (Seballos et al, 2011).
F
unding for climate resilience
programs will protect children’s basic
rights (UNICEF, 2010, 2011).
Human rights–based
a
pproaches (HRBA)
Common critical rights issues for local
c
ommunities are land /resource rights,
gender equality, and political voice
and fair adjudication of grievances
for the poor and excluded (Castro et
al., 2012).
Lack of recognition and promotion of
t
heir human rights blocks indigenous
peoples’ coping and adaptation
capacities (UNPFII, 2008).
Using the HRBA lens to understand
c
limate risk necessitates risk analysis
to probe the root causes of differential
disaster risk vulnerabilities, to enable
structural, sustainable responses
(Urquhart, 2013).
Applying HRBA presents a framework
f
or addressing confl icting rights
and interests, necessary for building
resilience and equitable adaptation
responses (SIDA, 2010).
Table 22-5 | Cross-cutting approaches for equity and social justice in adaptation.
22
Chapter 22 Africa
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multisector approach to adaptation planning (medium confidence).
Examples include Ethiopia’s Programme of Adaptation to Climate
Change, which includes sectoral, regional, national, and local community
levels (Hunde, 2012); Lesotho’s coordinated policy framework involving
all ministries and stakeholders (Corsi et al., 2012); and Mali’s experience
with a methodology for integrating adaptation into multiple sectors
(Fröde et al., 2013). Cross-sectoral adaptation planning and risk
management is occurring through mainstreaming initiatives like the 20-
country Africa Adaptation Program (AAP), initiated in 2008 (UNDP,
2
009; Siegel, 2011). Examples of the more programmatic approach of
national climate resilient development strategies include Rwanda’s
National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development,
under development in 2012, and the Pilot Programs for Climate
Resilience in Niger, Zambia, and Mozambique (Climate Investment
Funds, 2009). Intersectoral climate risk management approaches can
be detected in integrated water resources management, integrated
coastal zone management, disaster risk reduction, and land use planning
initiatives (Boateng, 2006; Koch et al., 2007; Awuor et al., 2008;
Cartwright et al., 2008; Kebede and Nicholls, 2011; Kebede et al., 2012),
while in South Africa climate change design principles have been
incorporated into existing systematic biodiversity planning to guide
land use planning (Petersen and Holness, 2011).
The move to a more integrated approach to adaptation planning is
occurring within efforts to construct enabling national policy environments
for adaptation in many countries. Examples include Namibia’s National
Policy on Climate Change; Zambia’s National Climate Change Response
Strategy and Policy, and South Africa’s National Climate Change Response
Policy White Paper. Ten countries were developing new climate change
laws or formal policies at the end of 2012, including the proposed
National Coastal Adaptation Law in Gabon (Corsi et al., 2012).
Despite this progress in mainstreaming climate risk in policy and
planning, significant disconnects still exist at the national level, and
implementation of a more integrated adaptation response remains
tentative (high confidence) (Koch et al., 2007; Fankhauser and Schmidt-
Traub, 2010; Madzwamuse, 2010; Oates et al., 2011; UNDP-UNEP Poverty-
Environment Initiative, 2011a). Legislative and policy frameworks for
adaptation remain fragmented, adaptation policy approaches seldom
take into account realities in the political and institutional spheres, and
national policies are often at odds with autonomous local adaptation
strategies, which can act as a barrier to adaptation, especially where
cultural, traditional, and context-specific factors are ignored (Dube and
Sekhwela, 2008; Patt and Schröter, 2008; Stringer et al., 2009; Bele et
al., 2010; Hisali et al., 2011; Kalame et al., 2011; Naess et al., 2011;
Lockwood, 2012; Sonwa et al., 2012; see also Section 22.4.6).
While climate resilience is starting to be mainstreamed into economic
planning documents—for example, Zambia’s Sixth National Development
Plan 2011–2015, and the new Economic and Social Investment Plan in
Niger (Corsi et al., 2012)—measures to promote foreign direct investment
and industrial competitiveness can undercut adaptive capacity of poor
people (Madzwamuse, 2010), while poor business environments impede
both foreign direct investment and adaptation (Collier et al., 2008).
Stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors—for example, Botswana’s
tourism industry—have yet to develop and implement adaptation
strategies (Saarinen et al., 2012).
22.4.4.3. Institutional Frameworks for Adaptation
Global adaptation institutions, both within and outside of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), are
critically important for Africa’s ability to move forward on adaptation
(Section 14.2.3). Regional institutions focused on specific ecosystems
r
ather than on political groupings, such as the Commission of Central
African Forests (COMIFAC), present an opportunity to strengthen the
institutional framework for adaptation. National frameworks include a
number of institutions that cover all aspects of climate change: most
countries have interministerial coordinating bodies and intersectoral
technical working groups, while an increasing number now have multi-
stakeholder coordinating bodies (Harmeling et al., 2011) and are
establishing national institutions to serve as conduits for climate
finance (Gomez-Echeverri, 2010; Smith et al., 2011).
Many studies in Africa show that under uncertain climatic futures,
replacing hierarchical governance systems that operate within siloes
with more adaptive, integrated, multilevel, and flexible governance
approaches, and with inclusive decision making that can operate
successfully across multiple scales—or adaptive governance and co-
management—will enhance adaptive capacity and the effectivess of
the adaptation response (Folke et al., 2005; Olsson et al., 2006; Koch
et al., 2007; Berkes, 2009; Pahl-Wostl, 2009; Armitage and Plummer,
2010; Bunce et al., 2010a; Plummer, 2012). Despite some progress with
developing the institutional framework for governing adaptation, there
are significant problems with both transversal and vertical coordination,
including institutional duplication with other intersectoral platforms,
such as disaster risk reduction; while in fragile states, institutions for
reducing climate risk and promoting adaptation may be extremely weak
or almost nonexistent (Hartmann and Sugulle, 2009; Sietz et al., 2011;
Simane et al., 2012). Facilitating institutional linkages and coordinating
responses across all boundaries of government, private sector, and civil
society would enhance adaptive capacity (Brown et al., 2010). Resolving
well-documented institutional challenges of natural resource management,
including lack of coordination, monitoring, and enforcement, is a
fundamental step toward more effective climate governance. For
example, concerning groundwater, developing organizational frameworks
and strengthening institutional capacities for more effectively assessing
and managing groundwater resources over the long term are critically
important (Nyenje and Batelaan, 2009; Braune and Xu, 2010).
22.4.4.4. Subnational Adaptation Governance
Since AR4, there has been additional effort on subnational adaptation
planning in African countries, but adaptation strategies at provincial
and municipal levels are mostly still under development, with many
local governments lacking the capacity and resources for the necessary
decentralized adaptation response (high confidence). Provinces in some
countries have developed policies and strategies on climate change: for
example, Lagos State’s 2012 Adaptation Strategy in Nigeria (BNRCC,
2012); mainstreaming adaptation into district development plans in
Ghana; and communal climate resilience plans in Morocco (Corsi et al.,
2012). Promising approaches include subnational strategies that integrate
adaptation and mitigation for low-carbon climate-resilient development,
as is being done in Delta State in Nigeria, and in other countries (UNDP,
22
Africa Chapter 22
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2011a). In response to the identified institutional weaknesses, capacity
development has been implemented in many cities and towns, including
initiatives in Lagos, Nigeria, and Durban and Cape Town in South Africa:
notable examples include Maputo’s specialized local government unit
to implement climate change response, ecosystem-based adaptation
and improved city wetlands; and participatory skills development in
integrating community-based disaster risk reduction and climate
adaptation into local development planning in Ethiopia (Madzwamuse,
2010; ACCRA, 2012; Castán Broto et al., 2013).
22.4.4.5. Community-Based Adaptation and Local Institutions
Since AR4, there has been progress in Africa in implementing and
researching community-based adaptation (high confidence), with broad
agreement that support to local-level adaptation is best achieved by
starting with existing local adaptive capacity, and incorporating and
building upon present coping strategies and norms, including indigenous
practices (Dube and Sekhwela, 2007; Archer et al., 2008; Huq, 2011).
Community-based adaptation is community initiated, and/or draws
upon community knowledge or resources (see Glossary). Some relevant
initiatives include the Community-Based Adaptation in Africa (CBAA)
project, which implemented community-level pilot projects in eight
African countries (Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Malawi, Kenya,
Zimbabwe, South Africa) through a learning-by-doing approach; the
Adaptation Learning Program, implemented in Ghana, Niger, Kenya,
and Mozambique (CARE International, 2012b); and UNESCO Biosphere
Reserves, where good practices were developed in Ethiopia, Kenya, South
Africa, and Senegal (German Commission for UNESCO, 2011). See Section
22.4.5.6 on institutions for community-based adaptation. The literature
includes a wide range of case studies detailing involvement of local
communities in adaptation initiatives and projects facilitated by non-
governmental organizations (NGOs) and researchers (e.g., Leary et al.,
2008a; CCAA, 2011; CARE International, 2012b; Chishakwe et al., 2012);
these and other initiatives have generated process-related lessons
(Section 22.4.5), with positive assessments of effectiveness in improving
adaptive capacity of African communities, local organizations, and
researchers (Lafontaine et al., 2012).
The key role for local institutions in enabling community resilience to
climate change has been recognized, particularly with respect to natural
resource dependent communities—for example, the role of NGOs and
community-based organizations in catalyzing agricultural adaptation
or in building resilience through enhanced forest governance and
sustainable management of non-timber forest products; institutions for
managing access to and tenure of land and other natural resources, which
are vital assets for the rural and peri-urban poor, are particularly crucial
for enabling community-based adaptation and enhancing adaptive
capacity in Africa (Bryan et al., 2009; Brown et al., 2010; Mogoi et al.,
2010). Local studies and adaptation planning have revealed the following
priorities for pro-poor adaptation: social protection, social services, and
safety nets; better water and land governance; action research to improve
resilience of under-researched food crops of poor people; enhanced water
storage and harvesting; better post-harvest services; strengthened civil
society and greater involvement in planning; and more attention to
urban and peri-urban areas heavily affected by migration of poor people
(Moser and Satterthwaite, 2008; Urquhart, 2009; Bizikova et al., 2010).
22.4.4.6. Adaptation Decision Making and Monitoring
Emerging patterns in Africa regarding adaptation decision making, a
critical component of adaptive capacity, include limited inclusive
governance at the national level, with greater involvement in local
initiatives of vulnerable and exposed people in assessing and choosing
a
daptation responses (high confidence). Civil society institutions and
communities have to date played a limited role in formulation of national
adaptation policies and strategies, highlighting the need for governments
to widen the political space for citizens and institutions to participate
in decision making, for both effectiveness and to ensure rights are met
(Madzwamuse, 2010; Castro et al., 2012). Building African leadership
for climate change may assist with this (CCAA, 2011; Chandani, 2011;
Corsi et al., 2012). A critical issue is how planning and decision making
for adaptation uses scientific evidence and projections, while also
managing the uncertainties within the projections (Conway, 2011;
Dodman and Carmin, 2011).
A range of tools has been used in adaptation planning in Africa, including
vulnerability assessment (Section 22.4.5), risk assessment, cost-benefit
analysis, cost-effectiveness, multi-criteria analysis, and participatory
scenario planning (see, e.g., Cartwright et al., 2008; Kemp-Benedict and
Agyemang-Bonsu, 2008; Njie et al., 2008; Mather and Stretch, 2012),
but further development and uptake of decision tools would facilitate
enhanced decision making. A related point is that monitoring and
assessing adaptation is still relatively undeveloped in Africa, with national
coordinating systems for collating data and synthesizing lessons not in
place. Approaches for assessing adaptation action at local and regional
levels have been developed (see, e.g., Hahn et al., 2009; Gbetibouo et
al., 2010a; Below et al., 2012), while there are positive examples of local
monitoring of adaptation at the project level (see, e.g., Archer et al.,
2008; Below et al., 2012). Chapter 2 contains additional discussion of
the foundations for decision making on climate change matters.
22.4.5. Experiences with Adaptation Measures in Africa
and Lessons Learned
22.4.5.1. Overview
Section 22.4.5 provides a cross-cutting assessment of experience gained
with a range of adaptation approaches, encompassing climate risk
reduction measures; processes for participatory learning and knowledge
development and sharing; communication, education, and training;
ecosystem-based measures; and technological and infrastructural
approaches; and concludes with a discussion of maladaptation.
Common priority sectors across countries for implementing adaptation
measures since 2008 include agriculture, food security, forestry, energy,
water, and education (Corsi et al., 2012), which reflects a broadening
of focus since the AR4. While there has been little planning focus on
regional adaptation (Sections 22.4.4.2-3), the potential for this has been
recognized (UNFCCC, 2007; Sonwa et al., 2009; Niang, 2012).
Attention is increasing on identifying opportunities inherent in the
continent’s adaptation needs, as well as delineating key success factors
for adaptation. A number of studies identify the opportunity inherent
22
Chapter 22 Africa
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in implementing relatively low-cost and simple low-regrets adaptation
measures that reduce people’s vulnerability to current climate variability,
have multiple developmental benefits, and are well-positioned to reduce
vulnerability to longer-term climate change as well (UNFCCC, 2007;
Conway and Schipper, 2011; see also Section 22.4.3). Responding to
climate change provides an opportunity to enhance awareness that
maintaining ecosystem functioning underpins human survival and
development in a most fundamental way (Shackleton and Shackleton,
2012), and to motivate for new development trajectories (Section 22.4.6).
W
hile it is difficult to assess adaptation success, given temporal and spatial
scale issues, and local specificities, Osbahr et al. (2010) highlight the
role of social networks and institutions, social resilience, and innovation
as possible key success factors for adaptation in small-scale farming
livelihoods in southern Africa. Kalame et al. (2008) note opportunities
for enhancing adaptation through forest governance reforms to improve
community access to forest resources, while Martens et al. (2009)
emphasize the importance of “soft path” measures for adaptation
strategies (see also Section 22.4.5.6).
The following discussion of adaptation approaches under discrete
headings does not imply that these are mutually exclusive—adaptation
initiatives usually employ a range of approaches simultaneously and,
indeed, the literature increasingly recognizes the importance of this for
building resilience.
22.4.5.2. Climate Risk Reduction, Risk Transfer,
and Livelihood Diversification
Risk reduction strategies used in African countries to offset the impacts
of natural hazards on individual households, communities, and the wider
economy include early warning systems, emerging risk transfer schemes,
social safety nets, disaster risk contingency funds and budgeting, livelihood
diversification, and migration (World Bank, 2010; UNISDR, 2011).
Disaster risk reduction (DRR) platforms are being built at national and
local levels, with the synergies between DRR and adaptation to climate
change being increasingly recognized in Africa (Westgate, 2010; UNISDR,
2011; Hunde, 2012); however, Conway and Schipper (2011) find that
additional effort is needed for a longer-term vulnerability reduction
perspective in disaster management institutions.
Early warning systems (EWS) are gaining prominence as multiple
stakeholders strengthen capabilities to assess and monitor risks and warn
communities of a potential crisis, through regional systems such as the
Permanent Inter-States Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel
(CILSS) and the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), as
well as national, local, and community-based EWS on for example food
and agriculture (Pantuliano and Wekesa, 2008; FAO, 2011; Sissoko et
al., 2011). Some of the recent EWSs emphasize a gendered approach,
and may incorporate local knowledge systems used for making short-,
medium-, and long-term decisions about farming and livestock-keeping,
as in Kenya (UNDP, 2011b). The health sector has employed EWS used
to predict disease for adaptation planning and implementation, such
as the prediction of conditions expected to lead to an outbreak of Rift
Valley fever in the Horn of Africa in 2006/2007 (Anyamba et al., 2010).
Progress has been made in prediction of meningitis and in linking climate/
weather variability and extremes to the disease (Thomson et al., 2006;
Cuevas et al., 2007).
Local projects often use participatory vulnerability assessment or screening
to design adaptation strategies (van Vliet, 2010; GEF Evaluation Office,
2011; Hambira, 2011), but vulnerability assessment at the local
g
overnment level is often lacking, and assessments to develop national
adaptation plans and strategies have not always been conducted in a
participatory fashion (Madzwamuse, 2010). Kienberger (2012) details
spatial modeling of social and economic vulnerability to floods at the
district level in Búzi, Mozambique. Lessons from vulnerability analysis
highlight that the highest exposure and risk do not always correlate
with vulnerable ecosystems, socially marginalized groups, and areas
with at-risk infrastructure, but may also lie in unexpected segments of
the population (Moench, 2011).
Community-level DRR initiatives include activities that link food security,
household resilience, environmental conservation, asset creation, and
infrastructure development objectives and co-benefits (Parry et al.,
2009a; UNISDR, 2011; Frankenberger et al., 2012). Food security and
nutrition-related safety nets and social protection mechanisms can
mutually reinforce each other for DRR that promotes adaptation, as in
Uganda’s Karamoja Productive Assets Program (Government of Uganda
and WFP, 2010; WFP, 2011). Initiatives in Kenya, South Africa, Swaziland,
and Tanzania have also sought to deploy local and traditional knowledge
for the purposes of disaster preparedness and risk management
(Mwaura, 2008; Galloway McLean, 2010). Haan et al. (2012) highlight
the need for increased donor commitment to the resilience-building
agenda within the framework of DRR, based on lessons from the 2011
famine in Somalia.
Social protection,
8
a key element of the African Union social policy
framework, is being increasingly used in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Malawi,
Mozambique, South Africa, and other countries to buffer against shocks
by building assets and increasing resilience of chronically and transiently
poor households; in some cases this surpasses repeated relief interventions
to address slower onset climate shocks, as in Ethiopia’s Productive Safety
Net Program (Brown et al., 2007; Heltberg et al., 2009). While social
protection is helping with ex post and ex ante DRR and will be increasingly
important for securing livelihoods should climate variability increase,
less evidence exists for its effectiveness against the most extreme
climatic shocks associated with higher emissions scenarios, which
would require reducing dependence on climate-sensitive livelihood
activities (Davies et al., 2009; Wiseman et al., 2009; Pelham et al., 2011;
Béné et al., 2012). Social protection could further build adaptive capacity
if based on improved understanding of the structural causes of poverty,
including political and institutional dimensions (Brown et al., 2007;
Davies et al., 2009; Levine et al., 2011).
Risk spreading mechanisms used in the African context include kinship
networks; community funds; and disaster relief and insurance, which
8
Social protection can include social transfers (cash or food), minimum standards such as for child labor, and social insurance.
22
Africa Chapter 22
1231
can provide financial security against extreme events such as droughts,
floods, and tropical cyclones, and concurrently reduce poverty and
enhance adaptive capacity
9
(Leary et al., 2008a; Linnerooth-Bayer et al.,
2009; Coe and Stern, 2011). Recent developments include the emergence
of index-based insurance contracts (Box 22-1), which pay out not with
the actual loss, but with a measurable event that could cause loss.
The challenges associated with current risk reduction strategies include
political and institutional challenges in translating early warning into
early action (Bailey, 2013); communication challenges related to EWS;
conveying useful information in local languages and communicating
EWS in remote areas; national-level mistrust of locally collected data,
which are perceived to be inflated to leverage more relief resources
(Hellmuth et al., 2007; Cartwright et al., 2008; Pantuliano and Wekesa,
2008; FAO, 2011); the call for improved user-friendliness of early warning
information, including at smaller spatial scales; the need for increased
capacity in national meteorological centers (Section 22.4.2); and the need
for better linkages between early warning, response, and prevention
(Haan et al., 2012).
Evidence is increasing that livelihood diversification, long used by
African households to cope with climate shocks, can also assist with
building resilience for longer term climate change by spreading risk.
Over the past 20 years, households in the Sahel have reduced their
vulnerability and increased their wealth through livelihood diversification,
particularly when diversifying out of agriculture (Mertz et al., 2011).
Households may employ a range of strategies, including on-farm
diversification or specialization (Sissoko et al., 2011; Tacoli, 2011).
Motsholapheko et al. (2011) show how livelihood diversification is used
as an adaptation to flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, and
Badjeck et al. (2010) recommend private and public insurance schemes
to help fishing communities rebuild after extreme events, and education
and skills upgrading to enable broader choices when fishery activities
can no longer be sustained. See Chapter 9 for a fuller discussion of the
role of livelihood diversification in adaptation, particularly Sections
9.3.3.1 and 9.3.5.2. Remittances are a longstanding and important means
of reducing risk to climate variability and other household stressors, and
of contributing to recovery from climatic shocks, as further discussed in
Chapter 9 (Sections 9.3.3.3, 9.3.5.2).
While livelihood diversification is an important adaptation strategy, it
may replace formerly sustainable practices with livelihood activities that
have negative environmental impacts (Section 22.4.5.8).
Rural finance and micro-credit can be enabling activities for adaptive
response, which are also used by women for resilience-building activities
(e.g., as documented in Sudan by Osman-Elasha et al., 2008). Credit and
storage systems are instrumental in supporting families during the lean
period, to prevent the sale of assets to buy food when market prices are
higher (Romero González et al., 2011). Long seen as a fundamental
process for most African families to incorporate choice into their risk
profile and adapt to climate variability (Goldstone, 2002; Urdal, 2005;
Reuveny, 2007; Fox and Hoelscher, 2010), there is evidence in some
areas of the increased importance of migration (discussed in Sections
8.2, 9.3.3.3, 12.4, 22.6.1) and trade for livelihood strategies, as opposed
to subsistence agriculture, as shown by Mertz et al. (2011) for the
Sudano-Sahelian region of West Africa.
22.4.5.3. Adaptation as a Participatory Learning Process
Since AR4, there has been more focus on the importance of flexible
and iterative learning approaches for effective adaptation (medium
evidence, high agreement). Owing to the variety of intersecting social,
environmental, and economic factors that affect societal adaptation,
governments, communities, and individuals (Jones et al., 2010; Jones,
Box 22-1 | Experience with Index-Based Weather Insurance in Africa
Malawi’s initial experience of dealing with drought risk through index-based weather insurance directly to smallholders appears
positive: 892 farmers purchased the insurance in the first trial period, which was bundled with a loan for groundnut production inputs
(
Hellmuth et al., 2009). In the next year, the pilot expanded, with the addition of maize, taking numbers up to 1710 farmers and
stimulating interest among banks, financiers, and supply chain participants such as processing and trading companies and input
suppliers. A pilot insurance project in Ethiopia was designed to pay claims to the government based on a drought index that uses a
time window between observed lack of rain and actual materialization of losses. This allows stakeholders to address threats to food
security in ways that prevent the depletion of farmers’ productive assets, which reduces the future demand for humanitarian aid by
enabling households to produce more food during subsequent seasons (Krishnamurty, 2011). Another key innovation in Ethiopia is
the insurance for work program that allows cash-poor farmers to work for their insurance premiums by engaging in community-
identified disaster risk reduction products, such as soil management and improved irrigation (WFP, 2011), which makes insurance
affordable to the most marginalized and resource-poor sectors of society.
9
Climate (or disaster) risk financing instruments include contingency funds, agricultural and property (private) insurance, sovereign insurance, reallocation of program expenditures,
weather derivatives, and bonds.
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1232
2012), adaptation is increasingly recognized as a complex process
involving multiple linked steps at several scales, rather than a series of
simple planned technical interventions (Moser and Ekstrom, 2010).
Implementing adaptation as a participatory learning process enables
people to adopt a proactive or anticipatory stance to avoid “learning
by shock” (Tschakert and Dietrich, 2010).
Iterative and experiential learning allows for flexible adaptation planning,
appropriate considering the uncertainty inherent in climate projections
t
hat is compounded by other sources of flux affecting populations in
Africa (Suarez et al., 2008; Dodman and Carmin, 2011; Huq, 2011; Koelle
and Annecke, 2011). Many studies have highlighted the utility of
participatory action research, social and experiential learning, and
creating enabling spaces for multi-stakeholder dialog for managing
uncertainty and unlocking the social and behavioral change required
for adaptation (e.g., Tompkins and Adger, 2003; Bizikova et al., 2010;
Tschakert and Dietrich, 2010; Ziervogel and Opere, 2010; CCAA, 2011;
Ebi et al., 2011; Thorn, 2011; UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative,
2011b; Faysse et al., 2013). Transdisciplinary approaches, which hold
promise for enhancing linkages between sectors and thus reducing
maladaptation are also starting to be adopted, as for example in the
urban context (Evans, 2011). Learning approaches for adaptation may
involve co-production of knowledge—such as combining local and
traditional knowledge with scientific knowledge (Section 22.4.5.4).
Adaptive co-management
10
holds potential to develop capacity to deal
with change (Watkiss et al., 2010; Plummer, 2012); the implications of
strategic adaptive management for adaptation in aquatic protected
areas in South Africa are being explored (Kingsford et al., 2011).
Caveats and constraints to viewing adaptation as a participatory
learning process include the time and resources required from both local
actors and external facilitators, the challenges of multidisciplinary
research, the politics of stakeholder participation and the effects of
power imbalances, and the need to consider not only the consensus
approach but also the role of conflicts (Aylett, 2010; Tschakert and
Dietrich, 2010; Beardon and Newman, 2011; Jobbins, 2011; Shankland
and Chambote, 2011). Learning throughout the adaptation process
necessitates additional emphasis on ways of sharing experiences between
communities and other stakeholders, both horizontally and vertically
(Section 22.4.5.4). Information and communication technologies,
including mobile phones, radio, and the internet, can play a role in
facilitating participatory learning processes and helping to overcome
some of the challenges (Harvey et al., 2012).
The increased emphasis on the importance of innovation for successful
adaptation, in both rural and urban contexts, relates to interventions that
employ innovative methods, as well as the innovation role of institutions
(Tschakert and Dietrich, 2010; Dodman and Carmin, 2011; Rodima-
Taylor, 2012; Scheffran et al., 2012). Scheffran et al. (2012) demonstrate
how migrant social organizations in the western Sahel initiate innovations
across regions by transferring technology and knowledge, as well as
remittances and resources. While relevant high-quality data is important
as a basis for adaptation planning, innovative methods are being used
to overcome data gaps, particularly local climatic data and analysis
capability (Tschakert and Dietrich, 2010; GEF Evaluation Office, 2011).
22.4.5.4. Knowledge Development and Sharing
Recent literature has confirmed the positive role of local and traditional
knowledge in building resilience and adaptive capacity, and shaping
r
esponses to climatic variability and change in Africa (Nyong et al., 2007;
Osbahr et al., 2007; Goulden et al., 2009b; Ifejika Speranza et al., 2010;
Jalloh et al., 2011b; Newsham and Thomas, 2011). This is particularly
so at the community scale, where there may be limited access to, quality
of, or ability to use scientific information. The recent report on extreme
events and disasters (IPCC, 2012) supports this view, finding robust
evidence and high agreement of the positive impacts of integrating
indigenous and scientific knowledge for adaptation. Concerns about
the future adequacy of local knowledge to respond to climate impacts
within the multi-stressor context include the decline in intergenerational
transmission; a perceived decline in the reliability of local indicators for
variability and change, as a result of sociocultural, environmental, and
climate changes (Hitchcock 2009; Jennings and Magrath 2009); and
challenges of the emerging and anticipated climatic changes seeming
to overrun indigenous knowledge and coping mechanisms of farmers
(Berkes, 2009; Ifejika Speranza et al., 2010; Jalloh et al., 2011b; see also
Section 22.4.6). Based on analysis of the responses to the Sahel
droughts during the 1970s and 1980s, Mortimore (2010) argues that
local knowledge systems are more dynamic and robust than is often
acknowledged. Linking indigenous and conventional climate observations
can add value to climate change adaptation within different local
communities in Africa (Roncoli et al., 2002; Nyong et al., 2007; Chang’a
et al., 2010; Guthiga and Newsham, 2011).
Choosing specific adaptation actions that are informed by users’
perceptions and supported by accurate climate information, relevant to
the scale where decisions are made, would be supportive of the largely
autonomous adaptation taking place in Africa (Vogel and O’Brien, 2006;
Ziervogel et al., 2008; Bryan et al., 2009; Godfrey et al., 2010). Key
problems regarding how science can inform decision making and policy
are how best to match scientific information, for example about
uncertainty of change, with decision needs; how to tailor information
to different constituencies; and what criteria to use to assess whether
or not information is legitimate to influence policy and decision making
(Vogel et al., 2007; Hirsch Hadorn et al., 2008). Institutional innovation
is one solution; for example, Nigeria established the Science Committee
on Climate Change to develop strategies to bridge the gap between
increasing scientific knowledge and policy (Corsi et al., 2012).
There is agreement that culture—or the shaping social norms, values,
and rules including those related to ethnicity, class, gender, health, age,
social status, cast, and hierarchy—is of crucial importance for adaptive
capacity as a positive attribute but also as a barrier to successful local
adaptation (Section 22.4.6); further research is required in this field, not
9
Adaptive co-management is understood as “a process by which institutional arrangements and ecological knowledge are tested and revised in a dynamic, ongoing, self-
organized process of learning-by-doing” (Folke et al., 2002).
22
Africa Chapter 22
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least because culture is highly heterogeneous within a society or locality
(Adger et al., 2007, 2009; Ensor and Berger, 2009; Nielsen and Reenberg,
2010; Jones, 2012). Studies show that, while it is important to develop
further the evidence base for the effectiveness of traditional knowledge,
integrating cultural components such as stories, myths, and oral history
into initiatives to document local and traditional knowledge on adaptive
or coping mechanisms is a key to better understanding how climate
vulnerability and adaptation are framed and experienced (Urquhart,
2009; Beardon and Newman, 2011; Ford et al., 2012). Appropriate and
e
quitable processes of participation and communication between
scientists and local people have been found to prevent misuse or
misappropriation of local and scientific knowledge (Nyong et al., 2007;
Crane, 2010; Orlove et al., 2010).
While multi-stakeholder platforms promote collaborative adaptation
responses (CARE International, 2012a), adaptation initiatives in Africa lack
comprehensive, institutionalized, and proactive systems for knowledge
sharing (GEF Evaluation Office, 2011; AAP, 2012).
22.4.5.5. Communication, Education, and Capacity Development
Capacity development and awareness raising to enhance understanding
of climate impacts and adaptation competencies and engender behavioral
change have been undertaken through civil society-driven approaches
or by institutions, such as regional and national research institutes,
international and national programs and non-governmental organizations
(UNFCCC, 2007; Reid et al., 2010; CCAA, 2011; START International,
2011; Figueiredo and Perkins, 2012). Promising examples include youth
ambassadors in Lesotho and civil society organizations in Tanzania (Corsi
et al., 2012), and children as effective communicators and advocates for
adaptation-related behavioral and policy change (Section 22.4.3).
Progress on inclusion of climate change into formal education is mixed,
occurring within the relatively low priority given to environmental
education in most countries (UNFCCC, 2007; Corsi et al., 2012; Mukute
et al., 2012).
Innovative methods used to communicate climate change include
participatory video, photo stories, oral history videos, vernacular drama,
radio, television, and festivals, with an emphasis on the important role
of the media (Suarez et al., 2008; Harvey, 2011; Chikapa, 2012; Corsi et
al., 2012). Better evidence-based communication processes will enhance
awareness raising of the diverse range of stakeholders at all levels on
t
he different aspects of climate change (Niang, 2007; Simane et al.,
2012). A better understanding of the dimensions of the problem could
be achieved by bringing together multiple users and producers of
scientific and local knowledge in a transdisciplinary process (Vogel et
al., 2007; Hirsch Hadorn et al., 2008; Ziervogel et al., 2008; Koné et al.,
2011).
22.4.5.6. Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity,
and Natural Resource Management
Africa’s longstanding experiences with natural resource management,
biodiversity use, and ecosystem-based responses such as afforestation,
rangeland regeneration, catchment rehabilitation, and community-
based natural resource management (CBNRM) can be harnessed to
develop effective and ecologically sustainable local adaptation strategies
(high confidence). Relevant specific experiences include using mobile
grazing to deal with both spatial and temporal rainfall variability in the
Sahel (Djoudi et al., 2013); reducing the negative impacts of drought
and floods on agricultural and livestock-based livelihoods through
forest goods and services in Mali, Tanzania, and Zambia (Robledo et
al., 2012); and ensuring food security and improved livelihoods for
indigenous and local communities in West and Central Africa through
the rich diversity of plant and animal genetic resources (Jalloh et al.,
2011b).
Box 22-2 | African Success Story: Integrating Trees into Annual Cropping Systems
Recent success stories from smallholder systems in Africa illustrate the potential for transforming degraded agricultural landscapes
into more productive, sustainable, and resilient systems by integrating trees into annual cropping systems. For example, in Zambia
and Malawi, an integrated strategy for replenishing soil fertility on degraded lands, which combines planting of nitrogen-fixing
Faidherbia trees with small doses of mineral fertilizers, has consistently more than doubled yields of maize leading to increased food
security and greater income generation (Garrity et al., 2010). In the Sahel, natural regeneration, or the traditional selection and
protection of small trees to maturity by farmers and herders has, perhaps for centuries, produced extensive parks of Acacia albida
(winter thorn) in Senegal (Lericollais, 1989), Adansonia digitata (baobab) in West and southern Africa (Sanchez et al., 2011), and
Butyrospermum parkii (shea butter) in Burkina Faso (Gijsbers et al., 1994). Recent natural regeneration efforts have increased tree
density and species richness at locations in Burkina Faso (Ræbild et al., 2012) and Niger (Larwanou and Saadou, 2011), though
adoption and success is somewhat dependent on soil type (Haglund et al., 2011; Larwanou and Saadou, 2011). In southern Niger,
farmer-managed natural regeneration of Faidherbia albida and other field trees, which began in earnest in the late 1980s, has led to
large-scale increase in tree cover across 4.8 million ha, and to decreased sensitivity to drought of the production systems, compared
to other regions in Niger (Reij et al., 2009; Tougiani et al., 2009; Sendzimir et al., 2011).
22
Chapter 22 Africa
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Natural resource management (NRM) practices that improve ecosystem
resilience can serve as proactive, low-regrets adaptation strategies for
vulnerable livelihoods (high confidence). Two relevant widespread
dual-benefit practices, developed to address desertification, are natural
regeneration of local trees (see Box 22-2) and water harvesting. Water
harvesting practices
1
1
have increased soil organic matter, improved soil
structure, and increased agricultural yields at sites in Burkina Faso, Mali,
Niger, and elsewhere, and are used by 60% of farmers in one area of
Burkina Faso (Barbier et al., 2009; Fatondji et al., 2009; Vohland and Barry,
2
009; Larwanou and Saadou, 2011). Although these and other practices
serve as adaptations to climate change, revenue generation and other
concerns may outweigh climate change as a motivating factor in their
adoption (Mertz et al., 2009; Nielsen and Reenberg, 2010). While
destocking of livestock during drought periods may also address
desertification and adaptation, the lack of individual incentives and
marketing mechanisms to destock and other cultural barriers inhibit
their widespread adoption in the Sahel (Hein et al., 2009; Nielsen and
Reenberg, 2010). Despite these provisos and other constraints (see, e.g.,
Nelson and Agrawal, 2008; Section 22.4.6 further highlights local-
level institutional constraints), local stakeholder institutions for CBNRM
do enable a more flexible response to changing climatic conditions;
CBNRM is also a vehicle for improving links between ecosystem services
and poverty reduction, to enable sustainable adaptation approaches
(Shackleton et al., 2010; Chishakwe et al., 2012; Girot et al., 2012).
Based on lessons learned in Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia,
Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, Chishakwe et al. (2012) point out the
synergies between CBNRM and adaptation at the community level,
notwithstanding institutional and other constraints experienced with
CBNRM.
Differentiation in the literature is growing between “hard path” and “soft
path” approaches to adaptation (Kundzewicz, 2011; Sovacool, 2011)—
with “soft path,” low-regrets approaches, such as using intact wetlands
for flood risk management, often the first line of defense for poor people
in Africa, as contrasted with “hard path” approaches such as dams and
embankments for flood control (McCully, 2007; Kundzewicz, 2011).
Intact ecosystem services and biodiversity are recognized as critical
components of successful human adaptation to climate change that
may be more effective and incur lower costs than “hard” or engineered
solutions (Abramovitz et al., 2002; Petersen and Holness, 2011; UNDP-
UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative, 2011a; Girot et al., 2012; Pramova
et al., 2012; Roberts et al., 2012; Box 22-2). This provides a compelling
reason for linking biodiversity, developmental, and social goals, as taken
up, for example, in Djibouti’s NAPA project on mangrove restoration to
reduce saltwater intrusion and coastal production losses due to climate
hazards (Pramova et al., 2012).
The emerging global concept of ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA)
provides a system-oriented approach for Africa’s longstanding local
NRM practices. Despite the evidence from studies cited in this section,
scaling-up to prioritize ecosystem responses and EbA in plans and policy
has been slow; a broad understanding that EbA is an integral component
of the developmental agenda, rather than a competing “green” agenda,
would promote this process. Adaptive environmental governance
represents one of the future challenges for the implementation of EbA
strategies in Africa, together with sustainable use of resources, secure
access to meet needs under climate change, and strong local institutions
to enable this (Robledo et al., 2012). Ecosystem-based adaptation could
be an important approach to consider for the globally significant Congo
Basin forests, particularly given the predominance of REDD+ approaches
for this region that risk neglecting adaptation responses, or may result
in maladaptation (Somorin et al., 2012; Sonwa et al., 2012; see also
S
ections 22.4.5.8, 22.6.2). Ecosystem-based approaches are further
discussed in Chapter 4 and Box CC-EA.
22.4.5.7. Technological and Infrastructural Adaptation Responses
Since AR4, experience has been gained on technological and infrastructural
adaptation in agricultural and water management responses, for climate-
proofing infrastructure, and for improved food storage and management
to reduce post-harvest losses; this has been increasingly in conjunction
with “soft” measures.
There is increased evidence that farmers are changing their production
practices in response to increased food security risks linked to climate
change and variability, through both technical and behavioral means.
Examples include planting cereal crop varieties that are better suited
to shorter and more variable growing seasons (Akullo et al., 2007;
Thomas et al., 2007; Yesuf et al., 2008; Yaro, 2010; Laube et al., 2012),
constructing bunds to more effectively capture rainwater and reduce soil
erosion (Nyssen et al., 2007; Thomas et al., 2007; Reij et al., 2009), reduced
tillage practices and crop residue management to more effectively bridge
dry spells (Ngigi et al., 2006; Marongwe et al., 2011), and adjusting
planting dates to match shifts in the timing of rainfall (Abou-Hadid,
2006; Vincent et al., 2011b).
Conservation agriculture has good potential to both bolster food
production and enable better management of climate risks (high
confidence) (Verchot et al., 2007; Thomas, 2008; Syampungani et al.,
2010; Thierfelder and Wall, 2010; Kassam et al., 2012). Such practices—
which include conservation/zero tillage, soil incorporation of crop
residues and green manures, building of stone bunds, agroforestry, and
afforestation/reforestation of croplands—reduce runoff and protect
soils from erosion, increase rainwater capture and soil water-holding
capacity, replenish soil fertility, and increase carbon storage in agricultural
landscapes. Conservation agriculture systems have potential to lower
the costs of tillage and weed control with subsequent increase in net
returns, as found in Malawi by Ngwira et al. (2012).
Expansion of irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa holds significant potential
for spurring agricultural growth while also better managing water
deficiency risks associated with climate change (Dillon, 2011; You et al.,
2011). Embedding irrigation expansion within systems-level planning
that considers the multi-stressor context in which irrigation expansion
is occurring can help to ensure that efforts to promote irrigation can be
10
Water harvesting refers to a collection of traditional practices in which farmers use small planting pits, half-moon berms, rock bunds along contours, and other structures to
capture runoff from episodic rain events (Kandji et al., 2006).
22
Africa Chapter 22
1235
sustained and do not instead generate a new set of hurdles for producers
or engender conflict (van de Giesen et al., 2010; Burney and Naylor,
2012; Laube et al., 2012). Suitable approaches to expand irrigation in
Africa include using low-pressure drip irrigation technologies and
construction of small reservoirs, both of which can help to foster
diversification toward irrigated high-value horticultural crops (Karlberg
et al., 2007; Woltering et al., 2011; Biazin et al., 2012). If drought risk
i
ncreases and rainfall patterns change, adaptation in agricultural water
management would be enhanced through a strategic approach that
encompasses overall water use efficiency for both rainfed and irrigated
production (Weiß et al., 2009), embeds irrigation expansion efforts
within a larger rural development context that includes increased access
to agricultural inputs and markets (You et al., 2011; Burney and Naylor,
2012), and that involves an integrated suite of options (e.g., plant
breeding and improved pest and disease and soil fertility management,
and in situ rainwater harvesting) to increase water productivity (Passioura,
2006; Biazin et al., 2012).
Experience has been gained since the AR4 on adaptation of infrastructure
(transportation, buildings, food storage, coastal), with evidence that this
can sometimes be achieved at low cost, and additional implementation
of soft measures such as building codes and zone planning (UNFCCC,
2007; Halsnæs and and Trarup, 2009; Urquhart, 2009; UN-HABITAT and
UNEP, 2010; AfDB, 2011; Mosha, 2011; Siegel, 2011; Corsi et al., 2012).
Examples of adaptation actions for road and transportation infrastructure
include submersible roads in Madagascar and building dikes to avoid
flooding in Djibouti (UNFCCC, 2007; Urquhart, 2009). Infrastructural
climate change impact assessments and enhanced construction and
infrastructural standards—such as raising foundations of buildings,
strengthening roads, and increasing stormwater drainage capacity—
are steps to safeguard buildings in vulnerable locations or with
inadequate construction (UN-HABITAT and UNEP, 2010; Mosha, 2011;
Corsi et al., 2012). Mainstreaming adaptation into infrastructure
development can be achieved at low cost, as has been shown for flood-
prone roads in Mozambique (Halsnæs and and Trarup, 2009). Integrating
climate change considerations into infrastructure at the design stage is
preferable from a cost and feasibility perspective than trying to retrofit
infrastructure (Chigwada, 2005; Siegel, 2011). Softer measures, such as
building codes and zone planning are being implemented and are
needed to complement and/or provide strategic guidance for hard
infrastructural climate proofing, for example, the adoption of cyclone-
resistant standards for public buildings in Madagascar (AfDB, 2011).
Research in South Africa has recognized that the best option for
adaptation in the coastal zone is not to combat coastal erosion in the
long term, but rather to allow progression of the natural processes
(Naidu et al., 2006; Zitholele Consulting, 2009).
Reducing post-harvest losses through improved food storage, food
preservation, greater access to processing facilities, and improved
systems of transportation to markets are important means to enhance
food security (Brown et al., 2009; Godfray et al., 2010; Codjoe and
Owusu, 2011). Low cost farm-level storage options, such as metal silos
(Tefera et al., 2011) and triple-sealed plastic bags (Baoua et al., 2012),
are effective for reducing post-harvest losses from pests and pathogens.
Better storage allows farmers greater flexibility in when they sell their
grain, with related income benefits (Brown et al., 2009), and reduces
post-harvest infection of grain by aflatoxins, which is widespread in
Africa and increases with drought stress and high humidity during
storage (Cotty and Jaime-Garcia, 2007; Shephard, 2008).
22.4.5.8. Maladaptation Risks
The literature increasingly highlights the need, when designing
development or adaptation research, policies, and initiatives, to adopt
a longer-term view and to consider the multi-stressor context in which
p
eople live, in order to avoid maladaptation, or outcomes that may serve
short-term goals but come with future costs to society (see Glossary).
The short-term nature of policy and other interventions, especially if
they favor economic growth and modernization over resilience and
human security, may themselves act as stressors or allow people to
react only to short-term climate variability (Brooks et al., 2009; Bryan
et al., 2009; Bunce et al., 2010a; Levine et al., 2011). The political context
can also undermine autonomous adaptation and lead to maladaptation;
for instance, Smucker and Wisner (2008) found that political and economic
changes in Kenya meant that farmers could no longer use traditional
strategies for coping with climatic shocks and stressors, with the poorest
increasingly having to resort to coping strategies that undermined their
long-term livelihood security, also known as erosive coping, such as
more intensive grazing of livestock and shorter crop rotations (van der
Geest and Dietz, 2004). In a case from the Simiyu wetlands in Tanzania,
Hamisi et al. (2012) find that coping and reactive adaptation strategies
may lead to maladaptation—for instance, through negative impacts on
natural vegetation because of increased intensity of farming in wetter
parts of the floodplain, where farmers have moved to exploit the higher
soil water content.
Some diversification strategies, such as charcoal production and artisanal
mining, may increase risk through promoting ecological change and the
loss of ecosystem services to fall back on (Paavola, 2008; Adger et al.,
2011; Shackleton and Shackleton, 2012). Studies also highlight risks
that traditional adaptive pastoralism systems may be replaced by
maladaptive activities. For example, charcoal production has become a
major source of income for 70% of poor and middle-income pastoralists
in some areas of Somaliland, with resultant deforestation (Hartmann
and Sugulle, 2009).
Another example of maladaptation provided in the literature is the
potential long-term hydro-dependency risks and threats to ecosystem
health and community resilience as a result of increased dam building
in Africa, which may be underpinned by policies of multilateral donors
(Avery, 2012; Beilfuss, 2012; Jones et al., 2012). While increased
rainwater storage will assist with buffering dry periods, and hydropower
can play a key role in ending energy poverty, it is important that this is
designed to promote environmental and social sustainability; that costs
and benefits are equitably shared; and that water storage and energy
generation infrastructure is itself climate-proofed. Additional substantive
review of such international development projects would assist in
assuring that these do not result in maladaptation.
See Chapter 4 for a discussion of the unwanted consequences of building
more and larger impoundments and increased water abstraction on
terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems; health aspects of this are noted
in Sections 22.3.5.1 and 22.3.5.4. See Section 22.6.2 on avoiding
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1236
undesirable trade-offs between REDD+ approaches and adaptation that
have the potential to result in significant maladaptation.
22.4.6. Barriers and Limits to Adaptation in Africa
A complex web of interacting barriers to local-level adaptation exists that
manifests from national to local scales to constrain adaptation, which
includes institutional, political, social, cultural, biophysical, cognitive,
b
ehavioral, and gender-related aspects (high confidence). While relatively
few studies from Africa have focused specifically on barriers and limits
to adaptation, perceived and experienced constraints distilled from the
literature encompass the resources needed for adaptation, the factors
influencing adaptive capacity, the reasons for not employing particular
adaptive strategies or not responding to climate change signals, and the
reasons why some groups or individuals adapt but not others (Roncoli
et al., 2010; Bryan et al., 2011; Nyanga et al., 2011; Ludi et al., 2012).
At the local level, institutional barriers hamper adaptation through
elite capture and corruption; poor survival of institutions without social
roots; and lack of attention to the institutional requirements of new
technological interventions (Ludi et al., 2012). Tenure security over land
and vital assets is widely accepted as being crucial for enabling people
to make longer-term and forward-looking decisions in the face of
uncertainty, such as changing farming practices, farming systems, or
even transforming livelihoods altogether (Bryan et al., 2009; Brown et al.,
2010; Romero González et al., 2011). In addition to unclear land tenure,
legislation forbidding ecosystem use is one of the issues strengthening
underlying conflicts over resources in Africa; resolving this would enable
ecosystems to contribute to adaptation beyond short-term coping
(Robledo et al., 2012). There is also evidence that innovation may be
suppressed if the dominant culture disapproves of departure from the
“normal way of doing things” (Jones, 2012; Ludi et al., 2012).
Characteristics such as wealth, gender, ethnicity, religion, class, caste,
or profession can act as social barriers for some to adapt successfully
or acquire the required adaptive capacities (Ziervogel et al., 2008;
Godfrey et al., 2010; Jones and Boyd, 2011). Based on field research
conducted in the Borana area of southern Ethiopia, Debsu (2012)
highlights the complex way in which external interventions may affect
local and indigenous institutions by strengthening some coping and
adaptive mechanisms and weakening others. Restrictive institutions
can block attempts to enhance local adaptive capacity by maintaining
structural inequities related to gender and ethnic minorities (Jones,
2012). Constraints faced by women, often through customs and legal
barriers, include limited access to land and natural resources, lack of
credit and input in decision making, limited ability to take financial risk,
lack of confidence, limited access to information and new ideas, and
under-valuation of women’s opinions (McFerson, 2010; Djoudi and
Brockhaus, 2011; Peach Brown, 2011; Codjoe et al., 2012; Goh, 2012;
Jones, 2012; Ludi et al., 2012).
Few small-scale farmers across Africa are able to adapt to climatic
changes, while others are restricted by a suite of overlapping barriers
(robust evidence, high agreement). Constraints identified in Kenya,
South Africa, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and
Ghana included poverty and a lack of cash or credit (financial barriers);
limited access to water and land, poor soil quality, land fragmentation,
poor roads, and pests and diseases (biophysical and infrastructural
barriers); lack of access to inputs, shortage of labor, poor quality of seed
and inputs attributed to a lack of quality controls by government and
corrupt business practices by traders, insecure tenure, and poor market
access (institutional, technological, and political barriers); and finally a
lack of information on agroforestry/afforestation, different crop varieties,
climate change predictions and weather, and adaptation strategies
(informational barriers) (Barbier et al., 2009; Bryan et al., 2009, 2011;
C
lover and Eriksen, 2009; Deressa et al., 2009; Roncoli et al., 2010;
Mandleni and Anim, 2011; Nhemachena and Hassan, 2011; Nyanga et
al., 2011; Vincent et al., 2011a).
Recognition is increasing that understanding psychological factors such
as mindsets and risk perceptions is crucial for supporting adaptation
(Grothmann and Patt, 2005; Patt and Schröter, 2008; Jones, 2012).
Cognitive barriers to adaptation include alternative explanations of
extreme events and weather such as religion (God’s will), the ancestors,
and witchcraft, or seeing these changes as out of people’s own control
(Byran et al., 2009; Roncoli et al., 2010; Mandleni and Anim, 2011; Artur
and Hilhorst, 2012; Jones, 2012; Mubaya et al., 2012).
Climate uncertainty, high levels of variability, lack of access to appropriate
real-time and future climate information, and poor predictive capacity
at a local scale are commonly cited barriers to adaptation from the
individual to national level (Repetto, 2008; Dinku et al., 2011; Jones,
2012; Mather and Stretch, 2012). Despite the cultural and psychological
barriers noted earlier, several studies have shown that farmers with
access to climate information are more predisposed to adjust their
behavior in response to perceived climate changes (Mubaya et al.,
2012).
At a policy level, studies have detected political, institutional, and
discursive barriers to adaptation. Adaptation options in southern Africa
have been blocked by political and institutional inefficiencies, lack of
prioritization of climate change, and the dominance of other discourses,
such as the mitigation discourse in South Africa and short-term disaster-
focused views of climate variability (Madzwamuse, 2010; Bele et al.,
2011; Berrang-Ford et al., 2011; Conway and Schipper, 2011; Kalame et
al., 2011; Chevallier, 2012; Leck et al., 2012; Toteng, 2012). Lack of local
participation in policy formulation, the neglect of social and cultural
context, and the inadvertent undermining of local coping and adaptive
strategies have also been identified by several commentators as barriers
to appropriate national policies and frameworks that would support
local-level adaptation (e.g., Brockhaus and Djoudi, 2008; Bele et al.,
2011; Chevallier, 2012).
Many of these constraints to adaptation are well-entrenched and will
be far from easy to overcome; some may act as limits to adaptation
for particular social groups (high confidence). Biophysical barriers to
adaptation in the arid areas could present as limits for more vulnerable
groups if current climate change trends continue (Leary et al., 2008b;
Roncoli et al., 2010; Sallu et al., 2010). Traditional and autonomous
adaptation strategies, particularly in the drylands, have been constrained
by social-ecological change and drivers such as population growth, land
privatization, land degradation, widespread poverty, HIV/AIDS, poorly
conceived policies and modernization, obstacles to mobility and use of
22
Africa Chapter 22
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Present
2°C
4°C
Very
l
ow
Very
high
Medium
P
resent
2°C
4°C
Very
low
Very
high
M
edium
Present
2°C
4°C
Very
low
Very
high
Medium
Present
2°C
4°C
Very
low
Very
high
Medium
Present
2°C
4°C
Very
low
Very
high
Medium
Present
2°C
4°C
Very
low
Very
high
Medium
Present
2°C
4°C
Very
low
Very
high
Medium
Key risk
Adaptation issues & prospects
Climatic
drivers
Risk & potential for
adaptation
Timeframe
Continued next page
Near term
(
2030 – 2040)
Long term
(
2080 – 2100)
Near term
(
2030 – 2040)
L
ong term
(2080 – 2100)
Near term
(2030 – 2040)
Long term
(2080 – 2100)
Near term
(2030 – 2040)
Long term
(2080 – 2100)
Near term
(2030 – 2040)
Long term
(2080 – 2100)
Near term
(2030 – 2040)
Long term
(2080 – 2100)
Near term
(2030 – 2040)
Long term
(2080 – 2100)
C
ompounded stress on water resources facing significant
s
train from overexploitation and degradation at present and
i
ncreased demand in the future, with drought stress
e
xacerbated in drought-prone regions of Africa
(
high confidence)
[
22.3-4]
•
Reducing non-climate stressors on water resources
• Strengthening institutional capacities for demand
management, groundwater assessment, integrated
water-wastewater planning, and integrated land and water
governance
• Sustainable urban development
Reduced crop productivity associated with heat and
drought stress, with strong adverse effects on
regional, national, and household livelihood and food
security, also given increased pest and disease
damage and flood impacts on food system
infrastructure (high confidence)
[22.3-4]
• Technological adaptation responses (e.g., stress-tolerant crop
varieties, irrigation, enhanced observation systems)
• Enhancing smallholder access to credit and other critical
production resources; Diversifying livelihoods
• Strengthening institutions at local, national, and regional levels
to support agriculture (including early warning systems) and
gender-oriented policy
• Agronomic adaptation responses (e.g., agroforestry,
conservation agriculture)
Changes in the incidence and geographic range of
vector- and water-borne diseases due to changes in
the mean and variability of temperature and
precipitation, particularly along the edges of their
distribution (medium confidence)
[22.3]
• Achieving development goals, particularly improved access to
safe water and improved sanitation, and enhancement of
public health functions such as surveillance
• Vulnerability mapping and early warning systems
• Coordination across sectors
• Sustainable urban development
Shifts in biome distribution, and severe impacts on wildlife
due to diseases and species extinction (high confidence)
[
22.3.2.1, 22.3.2.3]
Very few adaptation options; migration corridors; protected
areas; better management of natural resources
Degradation of coral reefs results in loss of protective
ecosystems and fishery stocks (medium confidence).
[22.3.2.3]
Few adaptation options; marine protected areas; conservation
and protection; better management of natural resources
Adverse effects on livestock linked to temperature rise and
precipitation changes that lead to increased heat and
water stress, and shifts in the range of pests and diseases,
with adverse impacts on pastoral livelihoods and rural
poverty (medium confidence)
[22.3.4.2, 22.4.5.2, 22.4.5.6, 22.4.5.8]
Addressing non-climate stressors facing pastoralists, including
policy and governance features that perpetuate their
marginalization, is critical for reducing vulnerability. Natural
resource-based strategies such as reducing drought risk to
pastoral livelihoods through use of forest goods and services
hold potential, provided sufficient attention is paid to forest
conservation and sustainable management.
Undernutrition, with its potential for life-long impacts on
health and development and its associated increase in
vulnerability to malaria and diarrheal diseases, can result
from changing crop yields, migration due to weather and
climate extremes, and other factors (medium confidence).
[22.3.5.2]
Early warning systems and vulnerability mapping (for targeted
interventions); diet diversification; coordination with food and
Agriculture sectors; improved public health functions to address
underlying diseases
C
OO
D
amaging
c
yclone
O
cean
a
cidification
Precipitation
C
OO
Climate-related drivers of impacts
W
arming
t
rend
Extreme
precipitation
Extreme
temperature
Sea
level
L
evel of risk & potential for adaptation
Potential for additional adaptation
to reduce risk
Risk level with
c
urrent adaptation
Risk level with
h
igh adaptation
Table 22-6 | Key risks from climate change and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation in Africa. Key risks are identified based on assessment of the
literature and expert judgments made by authors of the various WGII AR5 chapters, with supporting evaluation of evidence and agreement in the referenced chapter sections.
Each key risk is characterized as very low, low, medium, high, or very high. Risk levels are presented for the near-term era of committed climate change (here, for 2030–2040), in
which projected levels of global mean temperature increase do not diverge substantially across emissions scenarios. Risk levels are also presented for the longer term era of
climate options (here, for 2080–2100), for global mean temperature increase of 2°C and 4°C above pre-industrial levels. For each time frame, risk levels are estimated for the
current state of adaptation and for a hypothetical highly adapted state. As the assessment considers potential impacts on different physical, biological, and human systems, risk
levels should not necessarily be used to evaluate relative risk across key risks. Relevant climate variables are indicated by symbols.
S
ea surface
t
emperature
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1238
indigenous knowledge, as well as erosion of traditional knowledge, to
the extent that it is difficult or no longer possible to respond to climate
variability and risk in ways that people did in the past (Dabi et al., 2008;
Leary et al., 2008b; Paavola, 2008; Smucker and Wisner, 2008; Clover
and Eriksen, 2009; Conway, 2009; UNCCD et al., 2009; Bunce et al.,
2010b; Quinn et al., 2011; Jones, 2012; see also Section 22.4.5.4). As
a result of these multiple stressors working together, the number of
response options has decreased and traditional coping strategies are
no longer sufficient (Dube and Sekhwela, 2008). Studies have shown
that most autonomous adaptation usually involves minor adjustments
to current practices (e.g., changes in planting decisions); there are simply
too many barriers to implementing substantial changes that require
investment (e.g., agroforestry and irrigation) (Bryan et al., 2011). Such
adaptation strategies would be enhanced through government and
private sector/NGO support, without which many poor groups in Africa
may face real limits to adaptation (Vincent et al., 2011a; Jones, 2012).
These findings highlight the benefits of transformational change in
situations where high levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity
detract from the possibility for systems to adapt sustainably. This is in
agreement with the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme
Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, which
additionally found robust evidence and high agreement for the
importance of a spectrum of actions ranging from incremental steps to
transformational changes in order to reduce climate risks (IPCC, 2012).
In support of such solutions, Moench (2011) has called for distilling
common principles for building adaptive capacity at different stages,
and adaptive management and learning are seen as critical approaches
for facilitating transformation (IPCC, 2012; see also Section 22.4.5.3).
Chapter 16 provides further discussion on how encountering limits to
adaptation may trigger transformational change, which can be a means
of adapting to hard limits.
22.5. Key Risks for Africa
Table 22-6 highlights key risks for Africa (see also Table 19-4 and Box
CC-KR), as identified through assessment of the literature and expert
judgment of the author team, with supporting evaluation of evidence
and agreement in the sections of this chapter bracketed.
As indicated in Table 22-6, seven of the nine key regional risks are
assessed for the present as being either medium or high under current
adaptation levels, reflecting both the severity of multiple relevant
stressors and Africa’s existing adaptation deficit. This is the case for risks
relating to shifts in biome distribution (Section 22.3.2.1), degradation
of coral reefs (Section 22.3.2.3), reduced crop productivity (Section
22.3.4.1), adverse effects on livestock (Section 22.3.4.2), vector- and
water-borne diseases (Sections 22.3.5.2, 22.3.5.4), undernutrition
(Section 22.3.5.3), and migration (Section 22.6.1.2). This assessment
indicates that allowing current emissions levels to result in a +4°C
world (above preindustrial levels) by the 2080–2100 period would have
negative impacts on Africa’s food security, as even under high adaptation
levels, risks of reduced crop productivity and adverse effects on livestock
are assessed as remaining very high. Moreover, our assessment is that
even if high levels of adaptation were achieved, risks of stress on water
resources (Section 22.3.3), degradation of coral reefs (Section 22.3.2.3),
and the destructive effects of SLR and extreme weather events (Section
22.3.6) would remain high. However, even under a lower emissions
scenario leading to a long-term 2°C warming, all nine key regional risks
are assessed as remaining high or very high under current levels of
adaptation. The assessment indicates that even under high adaptation,
residual impacts in a 2°C world would be significant, with only risk
associated with migration rated as being capable of reduction to low
under high levels of adaptation. High adaptation would be enabled by
concerted effort and substantial funding; even if this is realized, no risk
is assessed as being capable of reduction to below medium status.
22.6. Emerging Issues
22.6.1. Human Security
Although the significance of human security cannot be overestimated,
the evidence of the impact of climate change on human security in
Africa is disputable (see Chapters 12 and 19). Adverse climate events
potentially impact all aspects of human security, either directly or indirectly
(on mapping climate security vulnerability in Africa see Busby et al., 2013).
Food security, water stress, land use, health security, violent conflict,
changing migration patterns, and human settlements are all interrelated
issues with overlapping climate change and human security dimensions.
P
resent
2
°C
4°C
V
ery
low
Very
high
Medium
P
resent
2°C
4°C
Very
low
Very
high
Medium
Near term
(
2030 – 2040)
L
ong term
(2080 – 2100)
Near term
(
2030 – 2040)
Long term
(
2080 – 2100)
Increased migration leading to human suffering, human
rights violations, political instability and conflict (medium
c
onfidence)
[
22.3.6, 22.4.5, 22.5.1.3]
A
daptation deficit to current flood and drought risk; effective
a
daptation includes sustainable land management and
modification of land use, dought relief, flood control and
e
ffective regional and national policy and legislative environment
that allows for flexible adaptation responses.
Sea level rise and extreme weather events disrupt transport
systems, production systems, infrastructure, public services
(
water, education, health, sanitation), especially in informal
a
reas (flooding) (medium confidence)
[22.3.7, 22.4.4.4, 22.4.4.6, 22.4.5.6, 22.4.5.7]
Limited options for migration away from flood prone localities
E
nhanced urban management and land use control would
r
educe both vulnerability and exposure to risks; would require
policy review, significant capacity development and
e
nforcement. Low-cost soft protective coastal infrastructure
options could reduce risk significantly in some areas; while hard
i
nfrastructural options are expensive, need technical knowledge
and not always environmentally sustainable.
Key risk
Adaptation issues & prospects
Climatic
drivers
Risk & potential for
adaptation
Timeframe
Table 22-6 (continued)
22
Africa Chapter 22
1239
Violent conflict and migration are discussed below (for further detail,
see Chapter 12).
22.6.1.1. Violent Conflict
While there seems to be consensus that the environment is only one of
several interconnected causes of conflict and is rarely considered to be
the most decisive factor (Kolmannskog, 2010), it remains disputed
w
hether, and if so, how, the changing climate directly increases the risk
of violent conflict in Africa (for more detail, see Chapters 12 and 19, in
particular Sections 12.5.1, 19.4; Gleditsch, 2012). However, views are
emerging that there is a positive relationship between increases in
temperature and increases in human conflict (Hsiang et al., 2013). Some
of the factors which may increase the risk of violent conflict, such as
low per capita incomes, economic contraction, and inconsistent state
institutions are sensitive to climate change (Section 12.5.1). For the
African Sahel States it has been argued that the propensity for communal
conflict across ethnic groups within Africa is influenced by political and
economic vulnerability to climate change (Raleigh, 2010). Evidence on
the question of whether, and if so, to what extent, climate change and
variability increases the risk of civil war in Africa is contested (Burke et
al., 2009b; Buhaug, 2010; Devitt and Tol, 2012). It has been suggested
that due to the depletion of natural resources in Africa as a result of
overexploitation and the impact of climate change on environmental
degradation, competition for scarce resources could increase and lead
to violent conflict (Kumssa and Jones, 2010). For East Africa it has been
suggested that increased levels of malnutrition are related to armed
conflicts (Rowhani et al., 2011). There is some agreement that rainfall
variation has an inconsistent relationship to conflict: both higher and
lower anomalous rainfall is associated with increased communal
conflict levels; although dry conditions have a lesser effect (Hendrix and
Salehyan, 2012; Raleigh and Kniveton, 2012; Theisen, 2012).
22.6.1.2. Migration
Human migration has social, political, demographic, economic, and
environmental drivers, which may operate independently or in combination
(
for more in-depth discussions, see Sections 12.4 and 19.4.2.1; Perch-
Nielsen et al., 2008; Piguet, 2010; Black et al., 2011a; Foresight, 2011;
Piguet et al., 2011; Van der Geest, 2011). Many of these drivers are climate
sensitive (Black et al., 2011c; see also Section 12.4.1). People migrate
either temporarily or permanently, within their country or across borders
(Section 12.4.1.2; Figure 12-1; Table 12-3; Warner et al., 2010; Kälin and
Schrepfer, 2012). The evidence base in the field of migration in Africa is
both varied and patchy. Evidence suggests that migration is a strategy
to adapt to climate change (Section 12.4.2). Mobility is indeed a strategy
(not a reaction) to high levels of climatic variation that is characteristic
of Africa (Tacoli, 2011) and the specifics of the response are determined
by the economic context of the specific communities.
Besides low-lying islands and coastal and deltaic regions in general,
sub-Saharan Africa is one of the regions that would particularly be
affected by environmentally induced migration (Gemenne, 2011a). Case
studies from Somalia and Burundi emphasize the interaction of climate
change, disaster, conflict, displacement, and migration (Kolmannskog,
2010). In Ghana, for example, an African country with few conflicts
caused by political, ethnic, or religious tensions, and thus with migration
drivers more likely related to economic and environmental motivators
(Tschakert and Tutu, 2010), some different types of migration flows are
considered to have different sensitivity to climate change (Black et al.,
2011a). The floods of the Zambezi River in Mozambique in 2008 have
displaced 90,000 people, and it has been observed that along the
Zambezi River Valley, with approximately 1 million people living in
the flood-affected areas, temporary mass displacement is taking on
permanent characteristics (Jäger et al., 2009; Warner et al., 2010).
Different assessments of future trends have recently produced
contradictory conclusions (e.g., UN-OCHA and IDMC, 2009; Naude,
2010; ADB, 2011; IDMC, 2011; Tacoli, 2011). One approach in assessing
future migration potentials, with considerable relevance to the African
context, focused on capturing the net effect of environmental change on
aggregate migration through analysis of both its interactions with other
migration drivers and the role of migration within adaptation strategies,
rather than identifying specific groups as potential ‘environmental
migrants’ (Foresight, 2011). Even if Africa’s population doubles by 2050
to 2 billion (Lutz and K.C., 2010) and the potential for displacement
rises as a consequence of the impact of extreme weather events, recent
analyses (Black et al., 2011b; Foresight, 2011) show that the picture for
future migration is much more complex than previous assessments of a
rise in climate-induced migration suggest, and relates to the intersection
of multiple drivers with rates of global growth, levels of governance,
and climate change.
The empirical base for major migration consequences is weak (Black et
al., 2011a; Gemenne, 2011b; Lilleør and Van den Broeck, 2011) and
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ 22.2 | What role does climate
change play with regard to
violent conflict in Africa?
Wide consensus exists that violent conflicts are
based on a variety of interconnected causes, of
which the environment is considered to be one,
but rarely the most decisive factor. Whether the
changing climate increases the risk of civil war in
Africa remains disputed and little robust research
is available to resolve this question. Climate change
impacts that intensify competition for increasingly
scarce resources such as freshwater and arable
land, especially in the context of population growth,
are areas of concern. The degradation of natural
resources as a result of both overexploitation and
climate change will contribute to increased conflicts
over the distribution of these resources. In addition
to these stressors, however, the outbreak of armed
conflict depends on many country-specific socio-
political, economic, and cultural factors.
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1240
nonexistent for international migration patterns (Marchiori et al., 2011).
Even across the same type of extreme weather event, the responses
can vary (Findlay, 2011; Gray, 2011 for Kenya and Uganda; Raleigh,
2011 for the African Sahel States).
2
2.6.2. Integrated Adaptation/Mitigation Approaches
Relevant experience gained in Africa since AR4 in implementing integrated
a
daptation-mitigation responses within a pro-poor orientation that
leverages developmental benefits encompasses some participation of
farmers and local communities in carbon offset systems, increasing the
use of relevant technologies such as agroforestry and farmer-assisted
tree regeneration (Section 22.4.5.6), and emerging Green Economy
policy responses. The recognition that adaptation and mitigation are
complementary elements of the global response to climate change, and
not trade-offs, is gaining traction in Africa (Goklany, 2007; Nyong et al.,
2007; UNCCD et al., 2009; Woodfine, 2009; Jalloh et al., 2011b; Milder
et al., 2011).
While the suitability of on- and off-farm techniques for an integrated
adaptation-mitigation response depends on local physical conditions as
well as political and institutional factors, sustainable land management
techniques are particularly beneficial for an integrated response in
Africa; these include agroforestry, including through farmer-managed
natural regeneration; and conservation agriculture (Woodfine, 2009;
Milder et al., 2011; Mutonyi and Fungo, 2011; see also Section 22.4.5.6;
Box 22-2). An emerging area is multiple-benefit initiatives that aim to
reduce poverty, promote adaptation through restoring local ecosystems,
and deliver benefits from carbon markets. Brown et al. (2011) note the
example of a community-based project in Humbo, Ethiopia, which is
facilitating adaptation and generating temporary certified emissions
reductions under the Clean Development Mechanism, by restoration of
degraded native forests (2728 ha) through farmer-managed natural
regeneration.
The key role of local communities in carbon offset systems through
community forestry entails land use flexibility (Purdon, 2010), but can
be constrained by the lack of supportive policy environments—for
example, for conservation agriculture (Milder et al., 2011).
The literature highlights the desirability of responding to climate
change through integrated adaptation-mitigation approaches, including
through spatial planning, in the implementation of REDD+ in Africa,
especially given the significant contribution to food security and
livelihoods of forest systems (Bwango et al., 2000; Nkem et al., 2007;
Guariguata et al., 2008; Nasi et al., 2008; Biesbroek et al., 2009; Somorin
et al., 2012). However, forests are mainly used for reactive coping and
not anticipatory adaptation; studies show that governments favor
mitigation while local communities prioritize adaptation (Fisher et al.,
2010; Somorin et al., 2012). Flexible REDD+ models that include
agriculture and adaptation hold promise for generating co-benefits for
poverty reduction, given food security and adaptation priorities, and
help to avoid trade-offs between REDD+ implementation and adaptive
capacities of communities, ecosystems, and nations (Nkem et al.,
2008; Thomson et al., 2010; CIFOR, 2011; Richard et al., 2011; Wertz-
Kanounnikoff et al., 2011).
Integrated adaptation-mitigation responses are being considered within
the context of the emerging Green Economy discussions. African leaders
agreed in 2011 to develop an African Green Growth Strategy, to build
a shared vision for promoting sustainable low-carbon growth through
a linked adaptation-mitigation approach, with adaptation seen as an
urgent priority (TICAD, 2011). A national example is the launch of
Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy Facility in 2012 (Corsi et
al., 2012).
22.6.3. Biofuels and Land Use
The potential for first-generation biofuel production in Africa, derived
from bioethanol from starch sources and biodiesel production from
oilseeds, is significant given the continent’s extensive arable lands, labor
availability, and favorable climate for biofuel crop production (Amigun et
al., 2011; Arndt et al., 2011; Hanff et al., 2011). While biofuel production
has positive energy security and economic growth implications, the
prospect of wide-scale biofuel production in Africa carries with it
significant risks related to environmental and social sustainability.
Among the concerns are competition for land and water between fuel
and food crops, adverse impacts of biofuels on biodiversity and the
environment, contractual and regulatory obligations that expose farmers
to legal risks, changes in land tenure security, and reduced livelihood
opportunities for women, pastoralists, and migrant farmers who depend
on access to the land resource base (Unruh, 2008; Amigun et al., 2011;
German et al., 2011; Schoneveld et al., 2011).
More research is needed to understand fully the socioeconomic and
environmental trade-offs associated with biofuel production in Africa.
One critical knowledge gap concerns the effect of biofuel production,
particularly large-scale schemes, on land use change and subsequent
food and livelihood security. For example, the conversion of marginal
lands to biofuel crop production would impact the ability of users of
these lands (pastoralists and in some cases women who are allocated
marginal land for food and medicinal production) to participate in land
use and food production decisions (Amigun et al., 2011; Schoneveld et
al., 2011). In addition, biofuel production could potentially lead to the
extension of agriculture into forested areas, either directly through
conversion of fallow vegetation or the opening of mature woodland, or
indirectly through use of these lands to offset food crop displacement
(German et al., 2011). Such land use conversion would result in
biofuel production reducing terrestrial carbon storage potential (Vang
Rasmussen et al., 2012a,b).
Better agronomic characterization of biofuel crops is another key
knowledge gap. For example, little information exists with respect to
the agronomic characteristics of the oilseed crop Jatropha (Jatropha
curcas) under conditions of intensive cultivation across differing growing
environments, despite the fact that Jatropha has been widely touted as
an appropriate feedstock for biofuel production in Africa because of its
ability to grow in a wide range of climates and soils. Oilseed yields of
Jatropha can be highly variable, and even basic information about
yield potential and water and fertilizer requirements for producing
economically significant oilseed yields is scanty (Achten et al., 2008;
Peters and Thielmann, 2008; Hanff et al., 2011). Such knowledge would
not only provide a basis for better crop management but would also
22
Africa Chapter 22
1241
help to gain better estimates of the extent of water consumption for
biofuel production in the context of non-biofuel water-use needs across
landscapes. Assessments of Jatropha’s potential as an invasive species
and its potential allelopathic effects on native vegetation are also needed,
in light of the fact that some countries have designated Jatropha as an
invasive species (Achten et al., 2008).
22.6.4. Climate Finance and Management
Recent analyses emphasize the significant financial resources and
technological support needed to both address Africa’s current adaptation
deficit and to protect rural and urban livelihoods, societies, and economies
from climate change impacts at different local scales, with estimates of
adaptation costs between US$20 and US$30 billion per annum over the
next couple of decades, up to US$60 billion per annum by 2030 (Parry
et al, 2009b; Fankhauser and Schmidt-Traub, 2010; Watkiss et al, 2010;
AfDB, 2011; Dodman and Carmin, 2011; LDC Expert Group, 2011; Smith
et al., 2011; e.g., see Figure 22-6). However, these figures are likely to
be underestimates, as studies upon which these estimates are based do
not always include the costs of overcoming Africa’s current adaptation
deficit, may be run for one scenario at a time, and do not factor in a
range of uncertainties in the planning environment.
Damages related to climate change may affect economic growth and
the ability to trade (Lecocq and Shalizi, 2007; Ruppel and Ruppel-
Schlichting, 2012). Costs of adaptation and negative economic impacts
of climate change have been referred to in Sections 22.3.4.4 and 22.3.6;
Warner et al. (2012) have highlighted the residual impacts of climate
change that would occur after adaptation, for case studies in Kenya and
The Gambia. The following examples are illustrative of the move to
discuss financial implications in the literature.
Scenarios for Tanzania, where agriculture accounts for about half of
gross production and employs about 80% of the labor force (Thurlow
and Wobst, 2003), project that changes in the mean and extremes of
climate variables could increase poverty vulnerability (Ahmed et al., 2011).
Scenarios for Namibia based on a computable general equilibrium
model project that annual losses to the economy ascribed to the impacts
of climate change on the country’s natural resources could range
between 1.0 and 4.8% of GDP (Reid et al., 2008). Ghana’s agricultural
and economic sector with cocoa being the single most important export
product is particularly vulnerable, since cocoa is prone to the effects of
a changing climate (Black et al., 2011c), which has been central to the
country’s debates on development and poverty alleviation strategies
(WTO, 2008).
The potential for adaptation to reduce the risks associated with SLR is
substantial for cumulative land loss and for numbers of people flooded
or forced to migrate, with adaptation costs lower than the economic
and social damages expected if nothing is done (Kebede et al., 2010).
See Figure 22-6.
The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model was used
to assess the monetary and non-monetary impacts of SLR on the entire
coast (3461 km) of Tanzania. Under the B1 low-range SLR scenario it
was estimated that, by 2030, a total area of 3579 to 7624 km
2
would
be lost, mainly through inundation, with around 234,000 to 1.6 million
people per year who could potentially experience flooding. Without
adaptation, residual damages have been estimated at between US$26
and US$55 million per year (Kebede et al., 2010). Table 22-7 shows the
economic impacts of land inundated in Cape Town based on different
SLR scenarios.
In line with increasing international impetus for adaptation (Persson et
al., 2009), the Parties to the UNFCCC agreed on providing “adequate,
predictable and sustainable financial resources” for adaptation in
developing countries, and, within this context, paid special attention to
Africa which is “particularly vulnerable” to the adverse effects of climate
change (UNFCCC, 2009, 2011; Berenter, 2012). Doubts remain about
how private sector financing can be effectively mobilized and channeled
toward adaptation in developing countries (Atteridge, 2011; Naidoo et
al., 2012). The 2012 Landscape of Climate Finance Report (Buchner et
al., 2012) stated that mitigation activities attracted US$350 billion,
mostly related to renewable energy and energy efficiency, while
adaptation activities attracted US$14 billion. Approximately 30% of the
global distributed adaptation finance went to Africa (Nakhooda et al.,
2011) and seems to prioritize the continent (Naidoo et al., 2012).
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Total adaptation cost (millions US$/yr)
Rahmstorf + Adapt
A1FI + Adapt
A1B + Adapt
B1 + Adapt
NoSLR + Adapt
Figure 22-6 | Total additional costs of adaptation per year from 2000 to 2100 for
Tanzania (including beach nourishment and sea and river dikes). The values do not
consider the existing adaptation deficit (values in US$ 2005, without discounting).
Source: Kebede et al., 2010.
Sea level rise scenarios Land inundated
Economic impacts
(for 25 years)
S
cenario 1 (+2.5 to 6.5 m depending
on the exposure): 95%
2
5.1 km
2
(1% of the total CT area)
5
.2 billion rands
(US$794 million)
S
cenario 2 (+4.5 m): 85% 60.9 km
2
(2% of the total CT area)
2
3.7 billion rands
(US$30.3 billion)
S
cenario 3 (+6.5 m): 20% 95 km
2
(
4% of the total CT area)
5
4.8 billion rands
Table 22-7 | Land inundated and economic impacts in Cape Town (CT) based on a
risk assessment (Cartwright, 2008).
Note: The economic impacts are determined based on the value of properties, losses of
touristic revenues, and the cost of infrastructure replacement. The total geographical
gross product for Cape Town in 2008 was 165 billion rands.
22
Chapter 22 Africa
1242
However, it is being questioned, whether the adaptation funding that is
currently delivered does fulfill demonstrated needs (Flåm and Skjærseth,
2009; Denton, 2010; for sub-Saharan Africa Nakhooda et al., 2011).
Effective adaptation requires more than sufficient levels of funding. It
requires developing country “readiness,” which includes abilities to plan
and access finances; the capacity to deliver adaptation projects and
programs, and to monitor, report, and evaluate their effectiveness
(Vandeweerd et al., 2012); and also a regulatory framework, which
guarantees, for example, property rights (WGIII AR5 Chapter 16).
Particularly serious challenges are associated with directing finance to
the sectors and people most vulnerable to climate change (Denton,
2010; Nakhooda et al., 2011; Pauw et al., 2012). The risk of fund
mismanagement with regard to climate finance and adaptation funds
needs to be borne in mind. Suggestions to address adequately the level
of complexity, uncertainty, and novelty that surrounds many climate
finance issues inter alia include longer term and integrated programs
rather than isolated projects; building capacity and institutions in
African countries (Nakhooda et al., 2011; Pauw et al., 2012); identifying
priorities, processes, and knowledge needs at the local level (Haites,
2011; Pauw, 2013); and, accordingly, developing grassroots projects
(Fankhauser and Burton, 2011).
22.7. Research Gaps
Research has a key role to play in providing information for informed
decision making at local to national levels (Fankhauser, 1997; Ziervogel
Key sectors Gaps observed
Climate science
•
R
esearch inclimate and climate impactswould be greatly enhanced if data custodians and researchers worked together to use observed station data in scientifi c
studies. Research into regional climate change and climate impacts relies on observed climate and hydrological data as an evaluative base. These data are most often
r
ecorded by meteorological institutions in each country and sold to support data collection efforts. However, African researchers are generally excluded from access to
these critical data because of the high costs involved, which hinders both climate and climate impacts research.
•
D
ownscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) data to the regional scale captures the infl uence of topography on the regional climate. Regional climate information is
essential for understanding regional climate processes, regional impacts, and potential future changes in these. In addition, impacts models such as hydrology and crop
m
odels generally require input data at a resolution higher than what GCMs can provide. Regional downscaling, either statistically or through use of regional climate
models, can provide information at these scales and can also change the sign of GCM-projected rainfall change over topographically complex areas (Section 22.2.2.2).
Ecosystems
•
M
onitoring networks for assessing long-term changes to critical ecosystems such as coastal ecosystems, lakes, mountains, grasslands, forests, wetlands, deserts,
and savannas to enhance understanding of long-term ecological dynamics, feedbacks between climate and ecosystems, the effects of natural climatevariability on
e
cosystems, the limits of natural climatevariability, and themarginal additional effects of global climate forcing
• Develop the status of protected areas to include climate change effects
Food systems
•
S
ocioeconomic and environmental trade-offs of biofuel production, especially the effect on land use change and food and livelihood security; better agronomic
characterization of biofuel crops to avoid maladaptive decisions with respect to biofuel production
•
V
ulnerability to and impacts of climate change on food systems (production, transport, processing, storage, marketing, and consumption)
•
I
mpacts of climate change on urban food security, and dynamic of rural–urban linkages in vulnerability and adaptive capacity
• Impacts of climate change on food safety and quality
Water resources
•
C
haracterization of Africa’s groundwater resource potential; understanding interactions between non-climate and climate drivers as related to future groundwater
resources
• Impacts of climate change on water quality, and how this links to food and health security
• Decision making under uncertainty with respect to water resources given limitations of climate models for adequately capturing future rainfall projections
Human security
and urban areas
• Research to explore and monitor the links between climate change and migration and its potential negative effects on environmental degradation; the potential
p
ositive role of migration in climate change adaptation
•
I
mproved methods and research to analyze the relation between climate change and violent confl ict.
Livelihoods
and poverty
• Methodologies for cyclical learning and decision support to enable anticipatory adaptation in contexts of high poverty and vulnerability (Tschakert and Dietrich, 2010)
• Frameworks to integrate differentiated views of poverty into adaptation and disaster risk reduction, and to better link these with social protection in different contexts
• Ethical and political dimensions of engaging with local and traditional knowledge on climate change
Health
• Research and improved methodologies (including longitudinal studies) to assess and quantify the impact of climate change on vector-borne, food-borne, water-borne,
nutrition, heat stress, and indirect impacts on HIV
• Research to quantify the direct and indirect health impacts of extreme weather events in Africa; injuries, mental illness; health infrastructure
• Frameworks and research platforms to be developed with other sectors to determine how underlying risks (e.g., food security) will be addressed to improve health
outcomes
Adaptation
• Research to develop home-grown and to localize global adaptation technologies to build resilience
• Equitable adaptation frameworks to deal with high uncertainty levels and integrate marginalized groups; and that identify and eliminate multi-level constraints to
women’s adaptive ability
• Multi-tiered approach to building institutional and community capacity to respond to climate risk
• Potential changes in economic and social systems under different climate scenarios, to understand the implications of adaptation and planning choices (Clements et al.,
2011)
• Principles / determining factors for effective adaptation, including community-based adaptation
• Understanding synergies and trade-offs between different adaptation and mitigation approaches (Chambwera and Anderson, 2011)
• Additional national and sub-national modeling and analysis of the economic costs of impacts and adaptation, including of the “soft” costs of impacts and adaptation
• Monitoring adaptation
Other
• Methods in vulnerability analysis for capturing the complex interactions in systems across scales
• Understanding compound impacts from concomitant temperature and precipitation stress, e.g., effect on a particular threshold of a heat wave occurring during a period
of below normal precipitation
Table 22-8 | Research gaps in different sectors.
22
Africa Chapter 22
1243
et al., 2008; Arendse and Crane, 2010). While there is significant activity
in African research institutions, much African research capacity is spent
on foreign-led research that may necessarily prioritize addressing national
knowledge gaps about climate change (Madzwamuse, 2010), and African
research may lack merited policy uptake or global recognition as it is
often not published in peer-reviewed literature (Denton et al., 2011).
T
he following overarching data and research gaps have been identified
(see also Table 22-8):
• Data management and monitoring of climate and hydroclimate
parameters and development of climate change scenarios as well
as monitoring systems to address climate change impacts in the
different sectors (e.g., the impacts of pests and diseases on crops
and livestock) and systems
• Research and improved methodologies to assess and quantify the
impact of climate change on different sectors and systems
• Socioeconomic consequences of the loss of ecosystems and also of
economic activities as well as of certain choices in terms of mitigation
(e.g., biofuels and their links with food and livelihood security) and
adaptation to climate change
• The links’ influence of climate change in emerging issues such as
migration and urban food security
• Developing decision-making tools to enable policy and other decisions
based on the complexity of the world under climate change, taking
into consideration gender, age, and the potential contribution of
local communities.
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