1395
AII
Editorial Team:
Michael Prather (USA), Gregory Flato (Canada), Pierre Friedlingstein (UK/Belgium), Christopher
Jones (UK), Jean-François Lamarque (USA), Hong Liao (China), Philip Rasch (USA)
Contributors:
Olivier Boucher (France), François-Marie Bréon (France), Tim Carter (Finland), William Collins
(UK), Frank J. Dentener (EU/Netherlands), Edward J. Dlugokencky (USA), Jean-Louis Dufresne
(France), Jan Willem Erisman (Netherlands), Veronika Eyring (Germany), Arlene M. Fiore
(USA), James Galloway (USA), Jonathan M. Gregory (UK), Ed Hawkins (UK), Chris Holmes
(USA), Jasmin John (USA), Tim Johns (UK), Fiona Lo (USA), Natalie Mahowald (USA), Malte
Meinshausen (Germany), Colin Morice (UK), Vaishali Naik (USA/India), Drew Shindell (USA),
Steven J. Smith (USA), David Stevenson (UK), Peter W. Thorne (USA/Norway/UK), Geert Jan
van Oldenborgh (Netherlands), Apostolos Voulgarakis (UK/Greece), Oliver Wild (UK), Donald
Wuebbles (USA), Paul Young (UK)
Annex II: Climate System
Scenario Tables
This annex should be cited as:
IPCC, 2013: Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables [Prather, M., G. Flato, P. Friedlingstein, C. Jones, J.-F. Lamarque,
H. Liao and P. Rasch (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M.
Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
1396
AII
Table of Contents
Introduction ................................................................................ 1397
Chemical Abbreviations and Symbols ................................. 1397
List of Tables................................................................................ 1398
References ................................................................................ 1400
Tables ........................................................................................ 1401
AII.1: Historical Climate System Data ......................................... 1401
AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions .................................................. 1410
AII.3: Natural Emissions ............................................................. 1421
AII.4: Abundances of the Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases ........... 1422
AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes .................... 1428
AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing ................................................ 1433
AII.7: Environmental Data .......................................................... 1437
1397
Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II
AII
1
A few HFCs and HCFCs are very short lived in the atmosphere and therefore not well mixed.
Introduction
Annex II presents, in tabulated form, data related to historical and pro-
jected changes in the climate system that are assessed in the chap-
ters of this report (see Section 1.6). It also includes some comparisons
with the Third Assessment Report (TAR) and Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4) results. These data include values for emissions into the atmo-
sphere, atmospheric abundances and burdens (integrated abundance),
effective radiative forcing (ERF; includes adjusted forcing from aero-
sols, see Chapters 7 and 8), and global mean surface temperatures and
sea level. Projections from 2010 to 2100 focus on the RCP scenarios
(Moss et al., 2010; Lamarque et al., 2010; 2011; Meinshausen et al.,
2011a; van Vuuren et al., 2011; see also Chapters 1, 6, 8, 11, 12 and
13). Projections also include previous IPCC scenarios (IPCC Scenarios
1992a (IS92a), Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1,
TAR Appendix II) and some alternative near-term scenarios for meth-
ane (CH
4
) and short-lived pollutants that impact climate or air quality.
Emissions from biomass burning are included as anthropogenic. ERF
from land use change is also included in some tables.
Where uncertainties or ranges are presented here, they are noted in
each table as being a recommended value or model ensemble mean/
median with a 68% confidence interval (16 to 84%, ±1σ for a normal
distribution) or 90% confidence interval (5 to 95%, ±1.645σ for a
normal distribution) or statistics (standard deviation, percentiles, or
minimum/maximum) of an ensemble of models. In some cases these
are a formal evaluation of uncertainty as assessed in the chapters, but
in other cases (specifically Tables AII.2.1, 3.1, 4.1, 5.1, 6.10, 7.1 to 7.5)
they just describe the statistical results from the available models, and
the referenced chapters must be consulted for the assessed uncertainty
or confidence level of these results. In the case of Table AII.7.5, for
example, the global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative
to 1986–2005 is a statistical summary of the spread in the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles for each of the sce-
narios: model biases and model dependencies are not accounted for;
the percentiles do not correspond to the assessed uncertainty derived
in Chapters 11 (Section 11.3.6.3) and 12 (Section 12.4.1); and statisti-
cal spread across models cannot be interpreted in terms of calibrated
language (Section 12.2).
The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for emis-
sions include only anthropogenic sources and use a single model to
project from emissions to abundances to radiative forcing to climate
change (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; 2011b). We include projected
changes in natural carbon dioxide (CO
2
) sources and sinks for 2010–
2100 based on this assessment (Chapters 6 and 12). Present-day natu-
ral and anthropogenic emissions of CH
4
and nitrous oxide (N
2
O) are
assessed and used to scale the RCP anthropogenic emissions to be con-
sistent with these best estimates (Chapters 6 and 11). Current model
evaluations of atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle, including
results from the CMIP5 and Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model
Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) projects, are used to project future
composition and ERF separately from the RCP model (see Sections
6.4.3, 11.3.5 and 12.3). Thus, projected changes in greenhouse gases
(GHGs), aerosols and ERF evaluated in this report may differ from the
published RCPs and from what was used in the CMIP5 runs, and these
are denoted RCP
&
. The CMIP5 climate projections used for the most
part the RCP concentration pathways for well-mixed greenhouse gases
(WMGHG) and the emissions pathways for ozone (O
3
) and aerosol pre-
cursors. Such differences are discussed in the relevant chapters and
noted in the tables.
For each species, the abundances (given as dry air mole fraction: ppm
= micromoles per mole (10
–6
); ppb = nanomoles per mole (10
–9
); and
ppt = picomoles per mole (10
–12
)), burdens (global total in grams, 1 Tg
= 10
12
g), average column amount (1 Dobson Unit (DU) = 2.687 × 10
16
molecules per cm
2
), AOD (mean aerosol optical depth at 550 nm), ERF
(effective radiative forcing, W m
–2
), and other climate system quantities
are calculated for scenarios using methodologies based on the latest
climate chemistry and climate carbon models (see Chapters 2, 6, 7,
8, 10, 11 and 12). Results are shown for individual years (e.g., 2010
= year 2010) and decadal averages (e.g., 2020
d
= average of years
2016 through 2025), although some 10-year periods are different, see
table notes. Year 2011 is the last year for observed quantities (denoted
2011* or 2011
obs
). Results are shown as global mean values except
for environmental data focussing on air quality (Tables AII.7.1–AII.7.4),
which give regional mean surface abundances of O
3
and fine particu-
late matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM
2.5
). Results for global
mean surface temperature (Tables AII.7.5 and AII.7.6) show only raw
CMIP5 data or data from previous assessments. For best estimates of
near-term and long-term temperature change see Chapters 11 and 12,
respectively. Results for global mean sea level rise (Table AII.7.7) are
assessed values with uncertainties described in Chapter 13.
Chemical Abbreviations and Symbols
Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases (WMGHG)
CO
2
carbon dioxide (KP, Kyoto Protocol gas)
CH
4
methane (KP)
N
2
O nitrous oxide (KP)
HFC hydrofluorocarbon
1
(a class of compounds: HFC-32, HFC-
134a, …) (KP)
PFC perfluorocarbon (a class of compounds: CF
4
, C
2
F
6
, …) (KP)
SF
6
sulphur hexafluoride (KP)
NF
3
nitrogen trifluoride (KP)
CFC chlorofluorocarbon (a class of compounds: CFCl
3
, CF
2
Cl
2
, …)
(MP, Montreal Protocol gas)
HCFC hydrochlorofluorocarbon
1
(a class of compounds: HCFC-22,
HCFC-141b, …) (MP)
CCl
4
carbon tetrachloride (MP)
CH
3
CCl
3
methyl chloroform (MP)
1398
Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables
AII
Ozone and Aerosols, and their Precursors
O
3
ozone (both stratospheric and tropospheric)
NO
x
sum of NO (nitric oxide) and NO
2
(nitrogen dioxide)
NH
3
ammonia
CO carbon monoxide
NMVOC a class of compounds comprising all non-methane volatile
organic compounds (i.e., hydrocarbons that may also contain
oxygen, also known as biogenic VOC or NMHC)
OH hydroxyl radical
PM
2.5
any aerosols with diameter less than 2.5 μm
BC black carbon aerosol
OC organic carbon aerosol
SO
2
sulphur dioxide, a gas
SO
x
oxidized sulphur in gaseous form, including SO
2
SO
4
=
sulphate ion, usually as sulphuric acid or ammonium sul-
phate in aerosol
List of Tables
AII.1: Historical Climate System Data
Table AII.1.1a: Historical abundances of the Kyoto greenhouse gases
Table AII.1.1b: Historical abundances of the Montreal Protocol green-
house gas (all ppt)
Table AII.1.2: Historical effective radiative forcing (ERF) (W m
–2
),
including land use change (LUC)
Table AII.1.3: Historical global decadal-mean global surface-air
temperature (°C) relative to 1961–1990 average
AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions
Table AII.2.1a: Anthropogenic CO
2
emissions from fossil fuels and
other industrial sources (FF) (PgC yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.1b: Anthropogenic CO
2
emissions from agriculture, forestry,
land use (AFOLU) (PgC yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.1c: Anthropogenic total CO
2
emissions (PgC yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.2: Anthropogenic CH
4
emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.3: Anthropogenic N
2
O emissions (TgN yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.4: Anthropogenic SF
6
emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.5: Anthropogenic CF
4
emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.6: Anthropogenic C
2
F
6
emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.7: Anthropogenic C
6
F
14
emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.8: Anthropogenic HFC-23 emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.9: Anthropogenic HFC-32 emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.10: Anthropogenic HFC-125 emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.11: Anthropogenic HFC-134a emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.12: Anthropogenic HFC-143a emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.13: Anthropogenic HFC-227ea emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.14: Anthropogenic HFC-245fa emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.15: Anthropogenic HFC-43-10mee emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.16: Anthropogenic CO emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.17: Anthropogenic NMVOC emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.18: Anthropogenic NO
X
emissions (TgN yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.19: Anthropogenic NH
3
emissions (TgN yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.20: Anthropogenic SO
X
emissions (TgS yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.21: Anthropogenic OC aerosols emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.22: Anthropogenic BC aerosols emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.23: Anthropogenic nitrogen fixation (Tg-N yr
–1
)
AII.3: Natural Emissions
Table AII.3.1a: Net land (natural and land use) CO
2
emissions (PgC
yr
–1
)
Table AII.3.1b: Net ocean CO
2
emissions (PgC yr
–1
)
AII.4: Abundances of the Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases
Table AII.4.1: CO
2
abundance (ppm)
Table AII.4.2: CH
4
abundance (ppb)
Table AII.4.3: N
2
O abundance (ppb)
Table AII.4.4: SF
6
abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.5: CF
4
abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.6: C
2
F
6
abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.7: C
6
F
14
abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.8: HFC-23 abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.9: HFC-32 abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.10: HFC-125 abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.11: HFC-134a abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.12: HFC-143a abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.13: HFC-227ea abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.14: HFC-245fa abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.15: HFC-43-10mee abundance (ppt)
Table AII.4.16: Montreal Protocol greenhouse gas abundances (ppt)
AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes
Table AII.5.1: Stratospheric O
3
column changes (DU)
Table AII.5.2: Tropospheric O
3
column changes (DU)
Table AII.5.3: Total aerosol optical depth (AOD)
Table AII.5.4: Absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD)
Table AII.5.5: Sulphate aerosol atmospheric burden (TgS)
Table AII.5.6: OC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg)
Table AII.5.7: BC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg)
Table AII.5.8: CH
4
atmospheric lifetime (yr) against loss by tropo-
spheric OH
Table AII.5.9: N
2
O atmospheric lifetime (yr)
AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing
Table AII.6.1: ERF from CO
2
(W m
–2
)
Table AII.6.2: ERF from CH
4
(W m
–2
)
Table AII.6.3: ERF from N
2
O (W m
–2
)
Table AII.6.4: ERF from all HFCs (W m
–2
)
Table AII.6.5: ERF from all PFCs and SF
6
(W m
–2
)
Table AII.6.6: ERF from Montreal Protocol greenhouse gases (W m
–2
)
Table AII.6.7a: ERF from stratospheric O
3
changes since 1850 (W m
–2
)
Table AII.6.7b: ERF from tropospheric O
3
changes since 1850 (W m
–2
)
Table AII.6.8: Total anthropogenic ERF from published RCPs and SRES
(W m
–2
)
Table AII.6.9: ERF components relative to 1850 (W m
–2
) derived from
ACCMIP
Table AII.6.10: Total anthropogenic plus natural ERF (W m
–2
) from
CMIP5 and CMIP3, including historical
1399
Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II
AII
AII.7: Environmental Data
Table AII.7.1: Global mean surface O
3
change (ppb)
Table AII.7.2: Surface O
3
change (ppb) for HTAP regions
Table AII.7.3: Surface O
3
change (ppb) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for
continental regions
Table AII.7.4: Surface particulate matter change (log
10
[PM
2.5
(microgram/m
3
)]) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions
Table AII.7.5: CMIP5 (RCP) and CMIP3 (SRES A1B) global mean surface
temperature change (°C) relative to 1986–2005 reference period
Table AII.7.6: Global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative
to 1990 from the TAR
Table AII.7.7: Global mean sea level rise (m) with respect to 1986–
2005 at 1 January on the years indicated
1400
Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables
AII
References
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1401
Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II
AII
Year CO
2
(ppm) CH
4
(ppb) N
2
O (ppb)
PI* 278 ± 2 722 ± 25 270 ± 7
1755 276.7 723 272.8
1760 276.5 726 274.1
1765 276.6 730 274.2
1770 277.3 733 273.7
1775 278.0 736 273.1
1780 278.2 739 272.4
1785 278.6 742 271.9
1790 280.0 745 271.8
1795 281.4 748 272.1
1800 282.6 751 272.6
1805 283.6 755 272.1
1810 284.2 760 271.4
1815 284.0 765 271.5
1820 283.3 769 272.9
1825 283.1 774 274.1
1830 283.8 779 273.7
1835 283.9 784 270.5
1840 284.1 789 269.6
1845 285.8 795 270.3
1850 286.8 802 270.4
1855 286.4 808 270.6
1860 286.1 815 271.7
1865 286.3 823 272.3
1870 288.0 831 273.0
1875 289.4 839 274.7
1880 289.8 847 275.8
1885 290.9 856 277.2
1890 293.1 866 278.3
1895 295.4 877 277.7
1900 296.2 891 277.3
1905 297.4 912 279.2
1910 299.3 935 280.8
1915 301.1 961 282.7
1920 303.3 990 285.1
1925 304.7 1020 284.3
1930 306.6 1049 284.9
1935 308.4 1077 286.6
1940 310.4 1102 287.7
1945 310.9 1129 288.0
1950 311.2 1162 287.6
1955 313.4 1207 289.6
1956 314.0 1217 290.4
1957 314.6 1228 291.2
1958 315.3 1239 291.7
Year CO
2
(ppm) CH
4
(ppb) N
2
O (ppb)
PI* 278 ± 2 722 ± 25 270 ± 7
1959 316.0 1251 292.1
1960 316.7 1263 292.4
1961 317.4 1275 292.5
1962 318.0 1288 292.5
1963 318.5 1301 292.6
1964 319.0 319.0 292.6
1965 319.7 1328 292.7
1966 320.6 1343 292.9
1967 321.5 1357 293.3
1968 322.5 1372 293.8
1969 323.5 1388 294.4
1970 324.6 1403 295.2
1971 325.6 1419 296.0
1972 326.8 1435 296.9
1973 328.0 1451 297.8
1974 329.2 1467 298.4
1975 330.2 1483 299.0
1976 331.3 1500 299.4
1977 332.7 1516 299.8
1978 334.3 1532 300.2
1979 336.2 1549 300.7
1980 338.0 1567 301.3
1981 339.3 1587 302.0
1982 340.5 1607 303.0
1983 342.1 1626 303.9
1984 343.7 1643 304.5
1985 345.2 1657 305.5
1986 346.6 1670 305.9
1987 348.4 1682 306.3
1988 350.5 1694 306.7
1989 352.2 1704 307.8
1990 353.6 1714 308.7
1991 354.8 1725 309.3
1992 355.7 1733 309.8
1993 356.6 1738 310.1
1994 358.0 1743 310.4
1995 359.9 1747 311.0
1996 361.4 1751 311.8
1997 363.1 1757 312.7
1998 365.2 1765 313.7
1999 367.2 1771 314.7
2000 368.7 1773 315.6
2001 370.2 1773 316.3
2002 372.3 1774 317.0
Tables
AII.1: Historical Climate System Data
Table AII.1.1a | Historical abundances of the Kyoto greenhouse gases
(continued on next page)
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AII
Table AII.1.1a (continued)
Year SF
6
(ppt) CF
4
(ppt) C
2
F
6
(ppt) C
6
F
14
(ppt) NF
3
(ppt)
PI* 0 35 0 0
1900 0 35 0 0
1910 0 35 0.1 0
1920 0 35 0.1 0
1930 0 36 0.2 0
1940 0 37 0.3 0
1950 0 39 0.5 0
1960 0.1 43 0.6 0
1970 0.3 51 0.8 0
1980 0.8 60 1.2 0
1990 2.4 68 1.9 0
2000 4.5 76 2.9 0
2005 5.6 75 3.7 0 0.3
2010 7.0 78.3 4.1 0
2011* 7.3 ± 0.1 79.0 4.2 0 0.6
Year
HFC-23
(ppt)
HFC-32
(ppt)
HFC-125
(ppt)
HFC-134a
(ppt)
HFC-143a
(ppt)
HFC-227ea
(ppt)
HFC-245fa
(ppt)
HFC-43-10mee
(ppt)
PI* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1940 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1950 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1960 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1970 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1980 3.7 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0
1990 7.9 0 0.1 0 0.6 0 0 0
2000 14.8 0 1.3 14 3.1 0.1 0 0
2010 23.2 4.1 8.2 58 10.9 0.6 1.1 0
2011* 24.0 4.9 9.6 63 ± 1 12.0 0.65 1.24 0
Notes:
Abundances are mole fraction of dry air for the lower, well-mixed atmosphere (ppm = micromoles per mole, ppb = nanomoles per mole, ppt = picomoles per mole). Values refer to single-year
average. Uncertainties (5 to 95% confidence intervals) are given for 2011 only when more than one laboratory reports global data. Pre-industrial (PI*, taken to be 1750 for GHG) and present day
(2011*) abundances are from Chapter 2, Tables 2.1 and 2.SM.1; see also Chapter 6 for Holocene variability (10 ppm CO
2
, 40 ppb CH
4
, 10 ppb N
2
O). Intermediate data for CO
2
, CH
4
and N
2
O are from
Chapters 2 and 8, Figure 8.6. See also Appendix 1.A. Intermediate data for the F-gases are taken from Meinshausen et al. (2011).
Year CO
2
(ppm) CH
4
(ppb) N
2
O (ppb)
PI* 278 ± 2 722 ± 25 270 ± 7
2003 374.5 1776 317.6
2004 376.6 1776 318.3
2005 378.7 1776 319.1
2006 380.8 1776 319.8
2007 382.7 1781 320.6
2008 384.6 1787 321.4
2005 378.7 1776 319.1
2006 380.8 1776 319.8
2007 382.7 1781 320.6
2008 384.6 1787 321.4
2009 386.4 1792 322.3
2010 388.4 1798 323.2
2011* 390.5 ± 0.3 1803 ± 4 324 ± 1
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Table AII.1.1b | Historical abundances of the Montreal Protocol greenhouse gases (all ppt)
Year CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl
4
CH
3
CCl
3
HCFC-22
PI* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1960 9.5 29.5 1.9 3.8 0.0 52.1 1.5 2.1
1965 23.5 58.8 3.1 5.0 0.0 64.4 4.7 4.9
1970 52.8 114.3 5.5 6.5 0.2 75.9 16.2 12.1
1975 106.1 203.1 10.4 8.3 0.6 85.5 40.0 23.8
1980 161.9 297.4 19.0 10.7 1.3 93.3 81.6 42.5
1985 205.4 381.2 37.3 12.9 2.8 99.6 106.1 62.7
1990 256.2 477.5 67.6 15.4 4.7 106.5 127.2 88.2
1995 267.4 523.8 83.6 16.1 6.8 103.2 110.3 113.6
2000 261.7 541.0 82.3 16.5 7.9 98.6 49.7 139.5
2005 251.6 542.7 78.8 16.6 8.3 93.7 20.1 165.5
2010 240.9 532.5 75.6 16.4 8.4 87.6 8.3 206.8
2011* 238 ± 1 528±2 74.3±0.5 15.8 8.4 86±2 6.4±0.4 213±2
Year HCFC-141b HCFC-142b Halon 1211 Halon 1202 Halon 1301 Halon 2402 CH
3
Br CH
3
Cl
PI* 0 0 0 0 0 0
1960 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.5 510
1965 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.7 528
1970 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.0 540
1975 0.0 0.2 0.12 0.01 0.04 0.06 7.4 546
1980 0.0 0.4 0.42 0.01 0.24 0.15 7.7 548
1985 0.0 0.7 1.04 0.02 0.74 0.26 8.2 549
1990 0.0 1.2 2.27 0.03 1.66 0.41 8.6 550
1995 2.7 6.3 3.34 0.04 2.63 0.52 9.2 550
2000 11.8 11.4 4.02 0.04 2.84 0.50 8.9 550
2005 17.5 15.1 4.26 0.02 3.03 0.48 7.9 550
2010 20.3 20.5 4.07 0.00 3.20 0.46 7.2 550
2011* 21.4±0.5 21.2±0.5 4.07 0.00 3.23 0.45 7.1 534
Notes:
See Table AII.1.1a. For present-day (2011*) see Chapter 2. Intermediate years are from Scenario A1, WMO Ozone Assessment (WMO, 2010).
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Table AII.1.2 | Historical effective radiative forcing (ERF) (W m
–2
), including land use change (LUC)
Year CO
2
GHG
Other*
O
3
(Trop)
O
3
(Strat)
Aerosol
(Total)
LUC
H
2
O
(Strat)
BC
Snow
Con–
trails
Solar Volcano
1750 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.001
1751 –0.023 0.004 0.000 0.000 –0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.014 0.000
1752 –0.024 0.006 0.001 0.000 –0.004 –0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.029 0.000
1753 –0.024 0.007 0.001 0.000 –0.005 –0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.033 0.000
1754 –0.025 0.008 0.002 0.000 –0.007 –0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.043 0.000
1755 –0.026 0.010 0.002 0.000 –0.009 –0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.054 –0.664
1756 –0.026 0.011 0.003 0.000 –0.011 –0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.055 0.000
1757 –0.027 0.013 0.003 0.000 –0.013 –0.003 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.048 0.000
1758 –0.028 0.014 0.003 0.000 –0.014 –0.003 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.050 0.000
1759 –0.028 0.015 0.004 0.000 –0.016 –0.004 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.102 0.000
1760 –0.029 0.016 0.004 0.000 –0.018 –0.004 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.112 –0.060
1761 –0.029 0.017 0.005 0.000 –0.020 –0.004 0.000 0.002 0.000 –0.016 –1.093
1762 –0.029 0.017 0.005 0.000 –0.021 –0.005 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.007 –0.300
1763 –0.029 0.018 0.006 0.000 –0.023 –0.005 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.018 –0.093
1764 –0.028 0.018 0.006 0.000 –0.025 –0.006 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.022 –0.021
1765 –0.026 0.018 0.006 0.000 –0.027 –0.006 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.054 –0.003
1766 –0.024 0.018 0.007 0.000 –0.029 –0.006 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.048 0.000
1767 –0.022 0.018 0.007 0.000 –0.030 –0.007 0.001 0.003 0.000 –0.036 0.000
1768 –0.020 0.018 0.008 0.000 –0.032 –0.007 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.016 0.000
1769 –0.017 0.018 0.008 0.000 –0.034 –0.008 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.050 0.000
1770 –0.014 0.018 0.009 0.000 –0.036 –0.008 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.081 0.000
1771 –0.011 0.018 0.009 0.000 –0.038 –0.008 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.055 0.000
1772 –0.008 0.018 0.009 0.000 –0.039 –0.009 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.052 –0.070
1773 –0.005 0.018 0.010 0.000 –0.041 –0.009 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.016 –0.020
1774 –0.003 0.018 0.010 0.000 –0.043 –0.010 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.002 –0.005
1775 –0.001 0.018 0.011 0.000 –0.045 –0.010 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.038 –0.001
1776 0.001 0.018 0.011 0.000 –0.046 –0.010 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.045 0.000
1777 0.002 0.018 0.011 0.000 –0.048 –0.011 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.036 0.000
1778 0.003 0.018 0.012 0.000 –0.050 –0.011 0.001 0.004 0.000 0.017 –0.067
1779 0.003 0.018 0.012 0.000 –0.052 –0.012 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.034 –0.071
1780 0.003 0.018 0.013 0.000 –0.054 –0.012 0.002 0.004 0.000 –0.069 –0.018
1781 0.004 0.018 0.013 0.000 –0.055 –0.012 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.057 –0.004
1782 0.004 0.018 0.014 0.000 –0.057 –0.013 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.028 –0.001
1783 0.006 0.018 0.014 0.000 –0.059 –0.013 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.065 –7.857
1784 0.009 0.018 0.014 0.000 –0.061 –0.014 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.059 –0.522
1785 0.012 0.018 0.015 0.000 –0.062 –0.014 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.046 –0.121
1786 0.017 0.018 0.015 0.000 –0.064 –0.014 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.022 –0.027
1787 0.021 0.018 0.016 0.000 –0.066 –0.015 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.001 –0.002
1788 0.027 0.018 0.016 0.000 –0.068 –0.015 0.002 0.006 0.000 0.034 –0.133
1789 0.033 0.019 0.017 0.000 –0.070 –0.016 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.033 –0.041
1790 0.038 0.019 0.017 0.000 –0.071 –0.016 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.058 –0.009
1791 0.044 0.019 0.017 0.000 –0.073 –0.016 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.056 –0.001
1792 0.050 0.020 0.018 0.000 –0.075 –0.017 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.051 0.000
1793 0.055 0.020 0.018 0.000 –0.077 –0.017 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.065 0.000
1794 0.060 0.021 0.019 0.000 –0.079 –0.018 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.064 –0.157
1795 0.066 0.022 0.019 0.000 –0.080 –0.018 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.027 0.000
1796 0.070 0.023 0.020 0.000 –0.082 –0.018 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.033 –0.781
1797 0.075 0.023 0.020 0.000 –0.084 –0.019 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.043 –0.071
1798 0.079 0.024 0.020 0.000 –0.086 –0.019 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.045 –0.016
1405
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Table AII.1.2 | (continued)
Year CO
2
GHG
Other*
O
3
(Trop)
O
3
(Strat)
Aerosol
(Total)
LUC
H
2
O
(Strat)
BC
Snow
Con–
trails
Solar Volcano
1799 0.084 0.025 0.021 0.000 –0.087 –0.020 0.003 0.007 0.000 –0.047 –0.002
1800 0.088 0.025 0.021 0.000 –0.089 –0.020 0.003 0.007 0.000 –0.055 0.000
1801 0.092 0.026 0.022 0.000 –0.091 –0.020 0.003 0.007 0.000 –0.021 –0.154
1802 0.096 0.026 0.022 0.000 –0.093 –0.021 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.010 –0.048
1803 0.099 0.026 0.023 0.000 –0.095 –0.021 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.033 –0.011
1804 0.103 0.026 0.023 0.000 –0.096 –0.022 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.040 –0.230
1805 0.106 0.026 0.023 0.000 –0.098 –0.022 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.046 –0.070
1806 0.109 0.026 0.024 0.000 –0.100 –0.022 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.036 –0.016
1807 0.112 0.026 0.024 0.000 –0.102 –0.023 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.057 –0.002
1808 0.114 0.026 0.025 0.000 –0.104 –0.023 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.065 0.000
1809 0.116 0.026 0.025 0.000 –0.105 –0.024 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.065 –6.947
1810 0.117 0.026 0.025 0.000 –0.107 –0.024 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.070 –2.254
1811 0.118 0.027 0.026 0.000 –0.109 –0.024 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.072 –0.836
1812 0.119 0.027 0.026 0.000 –0.111 –0.025 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.072 –0.308
1813 0.118 0.028 0.027 0.000 –0.112 –0.025 0.004 0.009 0.000 –0.069 –0.109
1814 0.117 0.029 0.027 0.000 –0.114 –0.026 0.004 0.009 0.000 –0.064 0.000
1815 0.115 0.030 0.028 0.000 –0.116 –0.026 0.004 0.009 0.000 –0.062 –11.629
1816 0.113 0.031 0.028 0.000 –0.118 –0.026 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.052 –4.553
1817 0.110 0.032 0.028 0.000 –0.120 –0.027 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.048 –2.419
1818 0.107 0.034 0.029 0.000 –0.121 –0.027 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.053 –0.915
1819 0.104 0.035 0.029 0.000 –0.123 –0.028 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.054 –0.337
1820 0.101 0.037 0.030 0.000 –0.125 –0.028 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.059 –0.039
1821 0.099 0.038 0.030 0.000 –0.127 –0.028 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.065 0.000
1822 0.097 0.040 0.031 0.000 –0.128 –0.029 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.066 0.000
1823 0.096 0.041 0.031 0.000 –0.130 –0.029 0.004 0.011 0.000 –0.068 0.000
1824 0.097 0.042 0.031 0.000 –0.132 –0.030 0.004 0.011 0.000 –0.059 0.000
1825 0.098 0.043 0.032 0.000 –0.134 –0.030 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.052 0.000
1826 0.100 0.044 0.032 0.000 –0.136 –0.030 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.044 0.000
1827 0.103 0.045 0.033 0.000 –0.137 –0.031 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.018 0.000
1828 0.106 0.045 0.033 0.000 –0.139 –0.031 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.008 0.000
1829 0.109 0.045 0.034 0.000 –0.141 –0.032 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.006 0.000
1830 0.111 0.045 0.034 0.000 –0.143 –0.032 0.005 0.012 0.000 0.002 0.000
1831 0.113 0.044 0.034 0.000 –0.145 –0.032 0.005 0.012 0.000 0.002 –1.538
1832 0.114 0.043 0.035 0.000 –0.146 –0.033 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.020 –1.229
1833 0.114 0.041 0.035 0.000 –0.148 –0.033 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.035 –0.605
1834 0.114 0.039 0.036 0.000 –0.150 –0.034 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.038 –0.223
1835 0.113 0.037 0.036 0.000 –0.152 –0.034 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.033 –4.935
1836 0.112 0.036 0.037 0.000 –0.153 –0.034 0.005 0.012 0.000 0.017 –1.445
1837 0.112 0.035 0.037 0.000 –0.155 –0.035 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.055 –0.523
1838 0.112 0.035 0.037 0.000 –0.157 –0.035 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.051 –0.192
1839 0.114 0.036 0.038 0.000 –0.159 –0.036 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.028 –0.069
1840 0.117 0.037 0.038 0.000 –0.161 –0.036 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.027 –0.047
1841 0.121 0.038 0.039 0.000 –0.162 –0.036 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.007 –0.013
1842 0.127 0.040 0.039 0.000 –0.164 –0.037 0.006 0.013 0.000 –0.006 –0.003
1843 0.135 0.041 0.039 0.000 –0.166 –0.037 0.006 0.013 0.000 –0.013 –0.052
1844 0.142 0.042 0.040 0.000 –0.168 –0.038 0.006 0.014 0.000 –0.024 –0.014
1845 0.149 0.043 0.040 0.000 –0.169 –0.038 0.006 0.014 0.000 –0.026 –0.003
1846 0.155 0.044 0.041 0.000 –0.171 –0.038 0.006 0.014 0.000 –0.024 –0.071
1847 0.160 0.044 0.041 0.000 –0.173 –0.039 0.007 0.014 0.000 –0.062 –0.020
1848 0.163 0.045 0.042 0.000 –0.175 –0.039 0.007 0.014 0.000 –0.018 –0.005
1406
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Table AII.1.2 | (continued)
Year CO
2
GHG
Other*
O
3
(Trop)
O
3
(Strat)
Aerosol
(Total)
LUC
H
2
O
(Strat)
BC
Snow
Con–
trails
Solar Volcano
1849 0.166 0.046 0.042 0.000 –0.177 –0.040 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.043 –0.001
1850 0.167 0.046 0.042 0.000 –0.178 –0.040 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.024 –0.100
1851 0.167 0.047 0.043 0.000 –0.180 –0.040 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.016 –0.075
1852 0.166 0.048 0.044 0.000 –0.182 –0.041 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.020 –0.025
1853 0.164 0.049 0.045 0.000 –0.184 –0.041 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.011 –0.025
1854 0.162 0.050 0.046 0.000 –0.185 –0.041 0.007 0.016 0.000 –0.010 0.000
1855 0.160 0.051 0.047 0.000 –0.187 –0.042 0.007 0.016 0.000 –0.027 –0.050
1856 0.158 0.052 0.048 0.000 –0.189 –0.042 0.007 0.016 0.000 –0.037 –0.975
1857 0.156 0.054 0.049 0.000 –0.191 –0.042 0.008 0.016 0.000 –0.037 –1.500
1858 0.155 0.055 0.050 0.000 –0.192 –0.043 0.008 0.017 0.000 –0.020 –0.725
1859 0.154 0.057 0.050 0.000 –0.194 –0.043 0.008 0.017 0.000 –0.007 –0.275
1860 0.154 0.058 0.051 0.000 –0.196 –0.043 0.008 0.017 0.000 0.029 –0.125
1861 0.153 0.060 0.052 0.000 –0.198 –0.044 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.036 –0.075
1862 0.153 0.061 0.053 0.000 –0.199 –0.044 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.013 –0.350
1863 0.154 0.062 0.054 0.000 –0.201 –0.044 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.006 –0.250
1864 0.156 0.063 0.055 0.000 –0.203 –0.045 0.008 0.018 0.000 –0.017 –0.125
1865 0.158 0.064 0.056 0.000 –0.205 –0.045 0.009 0.019 0.000 –0.018 –0.050
1866 0.162 0.066 0.057 0.000 –0.206 –0.045 0.009 0.019 0.000 –0.021 –0.025
1867 0.167 0.067 0.058 0.000 –0.208 –0.046 0.009 0.019 0.000 –0.037 0.000
1868 0.173 0.068 0.059 0.000 –0.210 –0.046 0.009 0.020 0.000 –0.039 0.000
1869 0.180 0.070 0.059 0.000 –0.212 –0.046 0.009 0.020 0.000 –0.005 –0.025
1870 0.188 0.071 0.060 0.000 –0.213 –0.047 0.009 0.020 0.000 –0.028 –0.025
1871 0.195 0.073 0.061 0.000 –0.215 –0.047 0.009 0.020 0.000 0.025 –0.025
1872 0.202 0.075 0.062 0.000 –0.217 –0.047 0.009 0.021 0.000 0.012 –0.025
1873 0.208 0.077 0.063 0.000 –0.219 –0.048 0.010 0.021 0.000 0.015 –0.075
1874 0.212 0.079 0.064 0.000 –0.220 –0.048 0.010 0.021 0.000 0.000 –0.050
1875 0.215 0.081 0.065 0.000 –0.222 –0.049 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.015 –0.025
1876 0.218 0.083 0.066 0.000 –0.224 –0.049 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.029 –0.150
1877 0.219 0.084 0.067 0.000 –0.226 –0.049 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.033 –0.125
1878 0.219 0.086 0.067 0.000 –0.227 –0.050 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.041 –0.075
1879 0.221 0.088 0.068 0.000 –0.229 –0.050 0.010 0.023 0.000 –0.044 –0.050
1880 0.222 0.089 0.069 0.000 –0.231 –0.050 0.011 0.023 0.000 –0.039 –0.025
1881 0.224 0.091 0.070 0.000 –0.233 –0.051 0.011 0.023 0.000 –0.007 –0.025
1882 0.228 0.092 0.071 0.000 –0.234 –0.051 0.011 0.024 0.000 –0.019 –0.025
1883 0.232 0.094 0.072 0.000 –0.236 –0.052 0.011 0.024 0.000 –0.031 –1.175
1884 0.238 0.096 0.073 0.000 –0.238 –0.052 0.011 0.024 0.000 0.018 –3.575
1885 0.244 0.098 0.074 0.000 –0.240 –0.053 0.011 0.024 0.000 0.002 –1.575
1886 0.250 0.100 0.075 0.000 –0.241 –0.053 0.011 0.025 0.000 –0.014 –0.900
1887 0.258 0.102 0.075 0.000 –0.243 –0.053 0.012 0.025 0.000 –0.033 –0.925
1888 0.266 0.104 0.076 0.000 –0.245 –0.054 0.012 0.025 0.000 –0.037 –0.550
1889 0.274 0.106 0.077 0.000 –0.247 –0.054 0.012 0.026 0.000 –0.041 –0.725
1890 0.283 0.107 0.078 0.000 –0.248 –0.055 0.012 0.026 0.000 –0.041 –0.975
1891 0.293 0.108 0.079 0.000 –0.250 –0.055 0.012 0.026 0.000 –0.020 –0.750
1892 0.302 0.109 0.080 0.000 –0.252 –0.056 0.012 0.026 0.000 0.004 –0.550
1893 0.311 0.110 0.081 0.000 –0.254 –0.056 0.013 0.027 0.000 0.035 –0.225
1894 0.319 0.111 0.082 0.000 –0.255 –0.057 0.013 0.027 0.000 0.072 –0.100
1895 0.325 0.111 0.083 0.000 –0.257 –0.057 0.013 0.027 0.000 0.052 –0.025
1896 0.330 0.112 0.083 0.000 –0.259 –0.058 0.013 0.028 0.000 0.023 –0.450
1897 0.334 0.113 0.084 0.000 –0.261 –0.058 0.013 0.028 0.000 –0.003 –0.425
1898 0.336 0.114 0.085 0.000 –0.262 –0.059 0.014 0.028 0.000 –0.012 –0.300
1407
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AII
Table AII.1.2 | (continued)
Year CO
2
GHG
Other*
O
3
(Trop)
O
3
(Strat)
Aerosol
(Total)
LUC
H
2
O
(Strat)
BC
Snow
Con–
trails
Solar Volcano
1899 0.337 0.115 0.086 0.000 –0.264 –0.059 0.014 0.028 0.000 –0.017 –0.125
1900 0.339 0.117 0.087 0.000 –0.266 –0.060 0.014 0.029 0.000 –0.028 –0.050
1901 0.341 0.120 0.088 0.000 –0.268 –0.061 0.014 0.029 0.000 –0.043 –0.025
1902 0.344 0.123 0.089 0.000 –0.270 –0.061 0.015 0.030 0.000 –0.048 –0.500
1903 0.349 0.127 0.090 0.000 –0.272 –0.062 0.015 0.030 0.000 –0.036 –1.800
1904 0.355 0.130 0.091 0.000 –0.274 –0.062 0.015 0.031 0.000 0.011 –0.800
1905 0.362 0.134 0.092 0.000 –0.276 –0.063 0.016 0.032 0.000 –0.016 –0.325
1906 0.369 0.138 0.092 0.000 –0.278 –0.063 0.016 0.032 0.000 0.028 –0.175
1907 0.376 0.141 0.093 0.000 –0.280 –0.064 0.016 0.033 0.000 –0.001 –0.225
1908 0.383 0.145 0.094 0.000 –0.282 –0.064 0.017 0.033 0.000 0.020 –0.250
1909 0.389 0.148 0.095 –0.001 –0.284 –0.065 0.017 0.034 0.000 –0.002 –0.100
1910 0.395 0.151 0.096 –0.001 –0.286 –0.065 0.017 0.035 0.000 –0.006 –0.075
1911 0.400 0.155 0.097 –0.001 –0.288 –0.066 0.018 0.035 0.000 –0.032 –0.050
1912 0.406 0.159 0.098 –0.001 –0.289 –0.066 0.018 0.035 0.000 –0.045 –0.475
1913 0.412 0.163 0.100 –0.001 –0.290 –0.067 0.019 0.035 0.000 –0.042 –0.600
1914 0.419 0.167 0.101 –0.001 –0.291 –0.068 0.019 0.035 0.000 –0.033 –0.250
1915 0.427 0.171 0.102 –0.001 –0.292 –0.068 0.019 0.035 0.000 0.013 –0.100
1916 0.436 0.175 0.103 –0.001 –0.293 –0.069 0.020 0.035 0.000 0.068 –0.075
1917 0.445 0.180 0.104 –0.001 –0.294 –0.069 0.020 0.035 0.000 0.086 –0.050
1918 0.453 0.185 0.105 –0.001 –0.296 –0.070 0.021 0.035 0.000 0.121 –0.050
1919 0.460 0.189 0.107 –0.002 –0.297 –0.071 0.021 0.035 0.000 0.073 –0.050
1920 0.466 0.193 0.108 –0.001 –0.298 –0.071 0.022 0.035 0.000 0.039 –0.225
1921 0.472 0.196 0.109 –0.001 –0.302 –0.072 0.022 0.036 0.000 0.012 –0.200
1922 0.476 0.199 0.110 –0.002 –0.305 –0.073 0.022 0.036 0.000 –0.013 –0.075
1923 0.481 0.201 0.111 –0.002 –0.309 –0.073 0.023 0.036 0.000 –0.025 –0.025
1924 0.486 0.203 0.113 –0.002 –0.313 –0.074 0.023 0.036 0.000 –0.029 –0.075
1925 0.491 0.205 0.114 –0.002 –0.317 –0.075 0.024 0.036 0.000 –0.015 –0.075
1926 0.497 0.207 0.115 –0.002 –0.321 –0.076 0.024 0.036 0.000 0.020 –0.050
1927 0.503 0.210 0.116 –0.002 –0.325 –0.076 0.025 0.036 0.000 0.063 –0.050
1928 0.510 0.214 0.117 –0.002 –0.328 –0.077 0.025 0.037 0.000 0.033 –0.125
1929 0.517 0.218 0.119 –0.002 –0.332 –0.078 0.025 0.037 0.000 0.028 –0.250
1930 0.523 0.222 0.120 –0.003 –0.336 –0.079 0.026 0.037 0.000 0.048 –0.150
1931 0.530 0.226 0.122 –0.003 –0.338 –0.080 0.026 0.037 0.000 0.009 –0.125
1932 0.536 0.230 0.124 –0.003 –0.340 –0.081 0.027 0.038 0.000 –0.016 –0.200
1933 0.542 0.234 0.126 –0.003 –0.341 –0.081 0.027 0.038 0.000 –0.029 –0.175
1934 0.548 0.237 0.128 –0.003 –0.343 –0.082 0.027 0.039 0.000 –0.027 –0.100
1935 0.555 0.241 0.130 –0.003 –0.345 –0.083 0.028 0.039 0.000 –0.008 –0.100
1936 0.563 0.244 0.133 –0.003 –0.347 –0.084 0.028 0.040 0.000 0.068 –0.075
1937 0.570 0.247 0.135 –0.003 –0.349 –0.085 0.029 0.040 0.000 0.089 –0.075
1938 0.577 0.251 0.137 –0.003 –0.350 –0.086 0.029 0.040 0.000 0.080 –0.125
1939 0.584 0.254 0.139 –0.004 –0.352 –0.087 0.029 0.041 0.000 0.094 –0.100
1940 0.590 0.257 0.141 –0.004 –0.354 –0.088 0.030 0.041 0.000 0.070 –0.075
1941 0.595 0.261 0.143 –0.004 –0.358 –0.089 0.030 0.042 0.000 0.057 –0.050
1942 0.598 0.264 0.146 –0.004 –0.362 –0.090 0.030 0.042 0.000 0.030 –0.100
1943 0.599 0.267 0.148 –0.004 –0.366 –0.092 0.031 0.043 0.000 –0.005 –0.100
1944 0.599 0.270 0.150 –0.004 –0.370 –0.093 0.031 0.043 0.001 –0.011 –0.050
1945 0.599 0.273 0.152 –0.004 –0.374 –0.094 0.032 0.043 0.001 0.019 –0.050
1946 0.599 0.276 0.154 –0.005 –0.378 –0.095 0.032 0.044 0.001 0.025 –0.050
1947 0.598 0.279 0.156 –0.005 –0.382 –0.096 0.032 0.044 0.002 0.093 –0.050
1948 0.598 0.283 0.158 –0.005 –0.386 –0.097 0.033 0.045 0.002 0.146 –0.050
1408
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AII
Table AII.1.2 | (continued)
Year CO
2
GHG
Other*
O
3
(Trop)
O
3
(Strat)
Aerosol
(Total)
LUC
H
2
O
(Strat)
BC
Snow
Con–
trails
Solar Volcano
1949 0.601 0.287 0.161 –0.005 –0.390 –0.099 0.033 0.045 0.002 0.123 –0.075
1950 0.604 0.291 0.163 –0.005 –0.394 –0.100 0.034 0.046 0.002 0.110 –0.075
1951 0.608 0.296 0.168 –0.005 –0.409 –0.102 0.034 0.046 0.002 0.037 –0.050
1952 0.615 0.302 0.173 –0.006 –0.424 –0.103 0.035 0.047 0.002 0.045 –0.100
1953 0.623 0.308 0.178 –0.006 –0.439 –0.105 0.036 0.047 0.003 0.025 –0.075
1954 0.631 0.315 0.183 –0.006 –0.455 –0.106 0.036 0.048 0.003 0.003 –0.100
1955 0.641 0.323 0.188 –0.006 –0.470 –0.108 0.037 0.048 0.003 0.015 –0.050
1956 0.651 0.332 0.193 –0.007 –0.485 –0.109 0.038 0.049 0.003 0.064 –0.025
1957 0.662 0.341 0.198 –0.007 –0.500 –0.111 0.038 0.050 0.004 0.129 –0.025
1958 0.673 0.349 0.203 –0.007 –0.515 –0.112 0.039 0.050 0.004 0.194 0.000
1959 0.685 0.358 0.208 –0.008 –0.530 –0.114 0.040 0.051 0.004 0.159 0.000
1960 0.698 0.366 0.213 –0.008 –0.546 –0.116 0.041 0.051 0.004 0.151 –0.125
1961 0.709 0.374 0.218 –0.008 –0.563 –0.117 0.041 0.051 0.004 0.110 –0.275
1962 0.719 0.383 0.223 –0.009 –0.580 –0.119 0.042 0.051 0.004 0.051 –0.325
1963 0.727 0.392 0.228 –0.009 –0.598 –0.120 0.043 0.050 0.005 0.038 –1.150
1964 0.735 0.402 0.233 –0.010 –0.615 –0.122 0.044 0.050 0.005 0.019 –1.800
1965 0.748 0.412 0.239 –0.011 –0.632 –0.123 0.045 0.050 0.005 0.008 –1.075
1966 0.762 0.424 0.244 –0.011 –0.650 –0.125 0.046 0.050 0.006 0.012 –0.575
1967 0.778 0.437 0.249 –0.012 –0.667 –0.126 0.047 0.049 0.007 0.055 –0.375
1968 0.794 0.451 0.254 –0.013 –0.684 –0.127 0.048 0.049 0.008 0.086 –0.675
1969 0.811 0.466 0.259 –0.014 –0.701 –0.129 0.049 0.049 0.009 0.077 –0.850
1970 0.828 0.483 0.264 –0.014 –0.719 –0.130 0.050 0.049 0.009 0.092 –0.425
1971 0.846 0.500 0.270 –0.016 –0.722 –0.131 0.050 0.049 0.009 0.082 –0.150
1972 0.865 0.519 0.277 –0.017 –0.725 –0.132 0.051 0.049 0.009 0.076 –0.100
1973 0.885 0.538 0.284 –0.018 –0.728 –0.134 0.052 0.049 0.010 0.044 –0.200
1974 0.904 0.558 0.290 –0.019 –0.732 –0.135 0.053 0.050 0.010 0.023 –0.325
1975 0.920 0.578 0.297 –0.021 –0.735 –0.136 0.054 0.050 0.010 0.006 –0.750
1976 0.938 0.598 0.304 –0.022 –0.738 –0.137 0.055 0.050 0.010 –0.003 –0.350
1977 0.960 0.617 0.310 –0.024 –0.741 –0.138 0.056 0.050 0.011 0.040 –0.125
1978 0.987 0.636 0.317 –0.026 –0.745 –0.138 0.057 0.051 0.011 0.129 –0.200
1979 1.018 0.656 0.324 –0.027 –0.748 –0.139 0.058 0.051 0.012 0.167 –0.225
1980 1.046 0.675 0.330 –0.029 –0.751 –0.140 0.059 0.051 0.012 0.150 –0.125
1981 1.066 0.696 0.335 –0.031 –0.763 –0.141 0.061 0.051 0.012 0.147 –0.125
1982 1.085 0.717 0.339 –0.033 –0.775 –0.141 0.062 0.050 0.012 0.094 –1.325
1983 1.110 0.737 0.343 –0.035 –0.788 –0.142 0.063 0.050 0.012 0.091 –1.875
1984 1.136 0.757 0.348 –0.037 –0.800 –0.143 0.064 0.049 0.013 0.016 –0.750
1985 1.158 0.776 0.352 –0.038 –0.812 –0.143 0.065 0.049 0.014 0.011 –0.325
1986 1.180 0.795 0.356 –0.040 –0.824 –0.144 0.065 0.049 0.015 0.012 –0.350
1987 1.208 0.813 0.360 –0.042 –0.836 –0.144 0.066 0.048 0.016 0.015 –0.250
1988 1.240 0.832 0.365 –0.044 –0.848 –0.145 0.067 0.048 0.017 0.095 –0.200
1989 1.266 0.853 0.369 –0.046 –0.861 –0.145 0.067 0.047 0.018 0.151 –0.150
1990 1.287 0.872 0.373 –0.048 –0.873 –0.146 0.068 0.047 0.019 0.118 –0.150
1991 1.305 0.888 0.375 –0.050 –0.878 –0.146 0.068 0.046 0.019 0.126 –1.350
1992 1.318 0.900 0.376 –0.052 –0.883 –0.146 0.069 0.045 0.020 0.137 –3.025
1993 1.332 0.909 0.378 –0.054 –0.888 –0.147 0.069 0.045 0.022 0.063 –1.225
1994 1.354 0.916 0.379 –0.055 –0.893 –0.147 0.069 0.044 0.024 0.027 –0.500
1995 1.381 0.923 0.380 –0.056 –0.897 –0.147 0.070 0.043 0.025 0.020 –0.250
1996 1.404 0.930 0.382 –0.057 –0.902 –0.148 0.070 0.043 0.027 0.003 –0.175
1997 1.428 0.937 0.383 –0.057 –0.907 –0.148 0.070 0.042 0.028 0.016 –0.125
1998 1.459 0.944 0.385 –0.057 –0.912 –0.148 0.071 0.041 0.029 0.062 –0.075
1409
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AII
Table AII.1.2 | (continued)
Year CO
2
GHG
Other*
O
3
(Trop)
O
3
(Strat)
Aerosol
(Total)
LUC
H
2
O
(Strat)
BC
Snow
Con–
trails
Solar Volcano
1999 1.489 0.952 0.386 –0.056 –0.917 –0.148 0.071 0.041 0.031 0.104 –0.050
2000 1.510 0.957 0.388 –0.056 –0.922 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.033 0.127 –0.050
2001 1.532 0.961 0.389 –0.055 –0.920 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.033 0.114 –0.050
2002 1.563 0.965 0.390 –0.055 –0.918 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.033 0.108 –0.050
2003 1.594 0.969 0.391 –0.054 –0.916 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.034 0.042 –0.075
2004 1.624 0.973 0.393 –0.053 –0.913 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.038 0.012 –0.050
2005 1.654 0.976 0.394 –0.053 –0.911 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.040 –0.011 –0.075
2006 1.684 0.981 0.395 –0.052 –0.909 –0.150 0.071 0.040 0.042 –0.016 –0.100
2007 1.711 0.986 0.396 –0.052 –0.907 –0.150 0.071 0.040 0.044 –0.017 –0.100
2008 1.736 0.992 0.398 –0.051 –0.904 –0.150 0.072 0.040 0.046 –0.025 –0.100
2009 1.762 0.999 0.399 –0.051 –0.902 –0.150 0.072 0.040 0.044 –0.027 –0.125
2010 1.789 1.005 0.400 –0.050 –0.900 –0.150 0.072 0.040 0.048 0.001 –0.100
2011 1.816 1.015 0.400 –0.050 –0.900 –0.150 0.073 0.040 0.050 0.030 –0.125
Notes:
See Figure 8.18, also Sections 8.1 and 11.3.6.1. To get the total ERF (effective radiative forcing) all components can be summed. Small negative values for CO
2
prior to 1800 are due to uncertainty
in PI values. GHG other* includes only WMGHG. Aerosol is the sum of direct and indirect effects. LUC includes land use land cover change. Contrails combines aviation contrails (~20% of total)
and contrail-induced cirrus. Values are annual average.
Table AII.1.3 | Historical global decadal mean global surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1961–1990 average
Year
HadCRUT4 GISS NCDC
Lower (5%) Median (50%) Upper (95%) Median (50%) Median (50%)
1850
d
–0.404 –0.320 –0.243
1860
d
–0.413 –0.335 –0.263
1870
d
–0.326 –0.258 –0.195
1880
d
–0.363 –0.297 –0.237 –0.296 –0.291
1890
d
–0.430 –0.359 –0.299 –0.361 –0.370
1900
d
–0.473 –0.410 –0.353 –0.418 –0.434
1910
d
–0.448 –0.387 –0.334 –0.435 –0.430
1920
d
–0.297 –0.242 –0.193 –0.311 –0.311
1930
d
–0.166 –0.116 –0.070 –0.172 –0.161
1940
d
–0.047 –0.002 +0.042 –0.085 –0.063
1950
d
–0.106 –0.061 –0.017 –0.134 –0.136
1960
d
–0.093 –0.054 –0.014 –0.104 –0.086
1970
d
–0.113 –0.077 –0.041 –0.058 –0.060
1980
d
+0.052 +0.095 +0.135 +0.118 +0.109
1990
d
+0.221 +0.270 +0.318 +0.275 +0.272
2000
d
+0.400 +0.453 +0.508 +0.472 +0.450
1986–2005
minus 1850–1900
+0.61 ± 0.06 N/A N/A
1986–2005
minus 1886–1905
+0.66 ± 0.06 +0.66 +0.66
1986–2005
minus 1961–1990
+0.30 ± 0.03 +0.31 +0.30
1986–2005
minus 1980–1999
+0.11 ± 0.02 +0.11 +0.11
1946–2012
minus 1880–1945
+0.38 ± 0.04 +0.40 +0.39
Notes:
Decadal average (1990
d
= 1990–1999) median global surface air temperatures from HadCRUT4, GISS and NCDC analyses. See Chapter 2, Sections 2.4.3 and 2.SM.4.3.3, Table 2.7, Figures 2.19, 2.20,
2.21 and 2.22, and also Figure 11.24a. Confidence intervals (5 to 95% for HadCRUT4 only) take into account measurement, sampling, bias and coverage uncertainties. Also shown are temperature
increases between the CMIP5 reference period (1986–2005) and four earlier averaging periods, where 1850–1900 is the early instrumental temperature record. Uncertainties in these temperature
differences are 5 to 95% confidence intervals.
1410
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AII
AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions
See discussion of Figure 8.2 and Section 11.3.5.
Table AII.2.1a | Anthropogenic CO
2
emissions from fossil fuels and other industrial sources (FF) (PgC yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2000
d
6.82 6.82 6.82 6.82 6.90 6.90 7.10 6.92 ± 0.80 6.98 ± 0.81 6.76 ± 0.71 6.98 ± 0.81
2010
d
8.61 8.54 8.39 8.90 8.46 8.50 8.68 8.38 ± 1.03 8.63 ± 1.07 7.66 ± 1.64 8.27 ± 1.68
2020
d
9.00 9.79 8.99 11.38 11.01 10.00 10.26 8.46 ± 1.38 10.24±1.69 8.33 ± 1.82 10.30 ± 1.87
2030
d
7.21 10.83 9.99 13.79 13.53 11.20 11.62 6.81 ± 1.49 10.93±1.83 9.20 ± 1.55 12.36 ± 2.25
2040
d
4.79 11.25 11.47 16.69 15.01 12.20 12.66 4.61 ± 1.60 11.82±1.84 10.04 ± 1.42 15.09 ± 2.15
2050
d
3.21 10.91 13.00 20.03 16.49 11.70 13.70 2.96 ± 1.80 11.37±1.84 11.14 ± 1.55 18.15 ± 2.56
2060
d
1.55 9.42 14.73 23.32 18.49 10.20 14.68 1.77 ± 1.06 9.96 ± 2.17 13.22 ± 2.05 21.49 ± 2.42
2070
d
0.26 7.17 16.33 25.75 20.49 8.60 15.66 0.75 ± 0.90 7.86 ± 1.94 14.57 ± 1.88 23.62 ± 2.43
2080
d
–0.39 4.62 16.87 27.28 22.97 7.30 17.00 –0.09 ± 0.99 5.17 ± 1.77 15.51 ± 2.29 24.47 ± 2.70
2090
d
–0.81 4.19 14.70 28.24 25.94 6.10 18.70 –0.30 ± 1.09 5.13 ± 1.53 14.24 ± 1.81 25.30 ± 2.86
2100
d
–0.92 4.09 13.63 28.68 28.91 5.20 20.40 –0.63 ± 1.17 4.64 ± 1.34 12.78 ± 1.35 25.28 ± 2.73
Notes:
Decadal mean values (2010
d
= average of 2005–2014) are used for emissions because linear interpolation between decadal means conserves total emissions. Data are taken from RCP database
(Meinshausen et al., 2011a; http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb) and may be different from yearly snapshots; for 2100 the average (2095–2100) is used. SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a are
taken from TAR Appendix II. RCPn.n
&
values are inferred from ESMs used in CMIP5. The model mean and standard deviation is shown. ESM fossil emissions are taken from 14 models as described
in Jones et al. (2013) although not every model has performed every scenario. See Chapter 6, Sections 6.4.3, and 6.4.3.3, and Figure 6.25.
Table AII.2.1b | Anthropogenic CO
2
emissions from agriculture, forestry, land use (AFOLU) (PgC yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 SRES-A2 SRES-B1 IS92a
2000
d
1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.07 1.07 1.30
2010
d
1.09 0.94 0.93 1.08 1.12 0.78 1.22
2020
d
0.97 0.41 0.38 0.91 1.25 0.63 1.14
2030
d
0.79 0.23 –0.43 0.74 1.19 –0.09 1.04
2040
d
0.51 0.21 –0.67 0.65 1.06 –0.48 0.92
2050
d
0.29 0.23 –0.48 0.58 0.93 –0.41 0.80
2060
d
0.55 0.19 –0.27 0.50 0.67 –0.46 0.54
2070
d
0.55 0.11 –0.04 0.42 0.40 –0.42 0.28
2080
d
0.55 0.02 0.20 0.31 0.25 –0.60 0.12
2090
d
0.59 0.03 0.24 0.20 0.21 –0.78 0.06
2100
d
0.50 0.04 0.18 0.09 0.18 –0.97 –0.10
Notes:
See Table AII.2.1a.
Notes:
See Table AII.2.1a.
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000
d
8.03 8.03 8.03 8.03
2010
d
9.70 9.48 9.32 9.98
2020
d
9.97 10.20 9.37 12.28
2030
d
8.00 11.06 9.57 14.53
2040
d
5.30 11.46 10.80 17.33
2050
d
3.50 11.15 12.52 20.61
2060
d
2.10 9.60 14.46 23.83
2070
d
0.81 7.27 16.29 26.17
2080
d
0.16 4.65 17.07 27.60
2090
d
–0.23 4.22 14.94 28.44
2100
d
–0.42 4.13 13.82 28.77
Table AII.2.1c | Anthropogenic total CO
2
emissions (PgC yr
–1
)
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AII
Table AII.2.2 | Anthropogenic CH
4
emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
PI 202 ± 28 202 ± 28 202 ± 28 202 ± 28
2010
total
554 ± 56 554 ± 56 554 ± 56 554 ± 56
2010
anthrop
352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45
2010
d
322 322 321 345 370 349 433 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45
2020
d
267 334 315 415 424 377 477 268 ± 34 366 ± 47 338 ± 43 424 ± 54
2030
d
238 338 326 484 486 385 529 246 ± 31 370 ± 47 354 ± 45 490 ± 63
2040
d
223 337 343 573 542 381 580 235 ± 30 368 ± 47 373 ± 47 585 ± 75
2050
d
192 331 354 669 598 359 630 198 ± 25 361 ± 46 385 ± 49 685 ± 88
2060
d
169 318 362 738 654 342 654 174 ± 22 346 ± 44 395 ± 50 754 ± 96
2070
d
161 301 359 779 711 324 678 169 ± 22 328 ± 42 390 ± 50 790 ±101
2080
d
155 283 336 820 770 293 704 162 ± 21 306 ± 39 369 ± 47 832 ±106
2090
d
149 274 278 865 829 266 733 155 ± 20 298 ± 38 293 ± 37 882 ±113
2100
d
143 267 250 885 889 236 762 148 ± 19 290 ± 37 267 ± 34 899 ±115
Notes:
For all anthropogenic emissions see Box 1.1 (Figure 4), Section 8.2.2, Figure 8.2, Sections 11.3.5.1.1 to 3, 11.3.5.2, 11.3.6.1. Ten-year average values (2010
d
= average of 2005–2014; but 2100
d
= average of 2095–2100) are given for RCP-based emissions, but single-year emissions are shown for other scenarios. RCPn.n = harmonized anthropogenic emissions as reported. SRES A2 and
B1 and IS92a are from TAR Appendix II. AR5 RCPn.n
&
emissions have ± 1-σ (16 to 84% confidence) uncertainties and are based on the methodology of Prather et al. (2012) updated with CMIP5
results (Holmes et al., 2013; Voulgarakis et al., 2013). Projections of CH
4
lifetimes are harmonized based on PI (1750) and PD (2010) budgets that include uncertainties in lifetimes and abundances.
All projected RCP abundances for CH
4
and N
2
O (Tables AII.4.2 to AII.4.3) rescale each of the RCP emissions by a fixed factor equal to the ratio of RCP to AR5 anthropogenic emissions at year 2010
to ensure harmonization between total emissions, lifetimes and observed abundances. Natural emissions are kept constant but included as additional uncertainty. Independent emission estimates
are shown as follows: MFR/CLE are the maximum feasible reduction and current legislation scenarios from Dentener et al. (2005; 2006), while MFR*/CLE* are the similarly labeled scenarios from
Cofala et al. (2007). REF
L
/REF
U
are lower/upper bounds from the reference scenario of van Vuuren et al. (2008), while POL
L
/POL
U
are the lower/upper bounds from their policy scenario. AME
L
/AME
U
are lower/upper bounds from Calvin et al. (2012). Rog
L
/Rog
U
are lower/upper bounds from Rogelj et et. (2011).
Year MFR CLE MFR* CLE* Rog
L
Rog
U
AME
L
AME
U
2000
d
366 366 303 303
2010
d
193 335 332 333
2020
d
208 383 240 390 294 350
2030
d
339 478 229 443 217 428 293 376
2040
d
295 404
2050
d
178 454 291 426
2060
d
275 434
2070
d
254 436
2080
d
201 430
2090
d
183 417
2100
d
121 385 167 406
1412
Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables
AII
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
PI 9.1 ± 1.0 9.1 ± 1.0 9.1 ± 1.0 9.1 ± 1.0
2010
total
15.7 ± 1.1 15.7 ± 1.1 15.7 ± 1.1 15.7 ± 1.1
2010
anthrop
6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3
2010
d
7.7 7.8 8.0 8.25 8.1 7.5 6.2 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3
2020
d
7.4 8.2 8.1 9.5 9.6 8.1 7.1 6.1 ± 1.2 6.8 ± 1.3 6.3 ± 1.2 7.7 ± 1.5
2030
d
7.3 8.5 8.8 10.7 10.7 8.2 7.7 6.1 ± 1.2 7.1 ± 1.4 7.0 ± 1.4 8.6 ± 1.7
2040
d
7.1 8.7 9.7 11.9 11.3 8.3 8.0 6.0 ± 1.2 7.2 ± 1.4 7.8 ± 1.5 9.6 ± 1.9
2050
d
6.3 8.6 10.5 12.7 12.0 8.3 8.3 5.2 ± 1.0 7.1 ± 1.4 8.4 ± 1.6 10.3 ± 2.0
2060
d
5.8 8.5 11.3 13.4 12.9 7.7 8.3 4.8 ± 0.9 7.1 ± 1.4 9.1 ± 1.8 10.8 ± 2.1
2070
d
5.7 8.4 12.0 13.9 13.9 7.4 8.4 4.8 ± 0.9 7.0 ± 1.3 9.6 ± 1.9 11.2 ± 2.2
2080
d
5.6 8.2 12.3 14.5 14.8 7.0 8.5 4.7 ± 0.9 6.8 ± 1.3 9.9 ± 1.9 11.7 ± 2.3
2090
d
5.5 8.1 12.4 15.2 15.7 6.4 8.6 4.6 ± 0.9 6.8 ± 1.3 9.9 ± 1.9 12.3 ± 2.4
2100
d
5.3 8.1 12.2 15.7 16.5 5.7 8.7 4.4 ± 0.9 6.7 ± 1.3 9.8 ± 1.9 12.6 ± 2.4
Notes:
See Table AII.2.2.
Table AII.2.3 | Anthropogenic N
2
O emissions (TgN yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000
d
5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 6.20 6.20
2010
d
6.14 5.68 7.43 6.93 7.60 5.60
2020
d
2.87 3.02 9.19 8.12 9.70 5.70
2030
d
1.96 2.89 9.58 9.83 11.60 7.20
2040
d
1.53 3.32 9.68 11.14 13.70 8.90
2050
d
0.76 3.77 9.78 12.07 16.00 10.40
2060
d
0.51 4.28 9.92 13.69 18.80 10.90
2070
d
0.42 4.87 10.05 13.72 19.80 9.50
2080
d
0.32 5.53 10.00 14.79 20.70 7.10
2090
d
0.19 5.99 9.86 15.96 23.40 6.50
2100
d
0.07 6.25 9.37 16.79 25.20 6.50
Table AII.2.4 | Anthropogenic SF
6
emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Notes:
For this and all following emissions tables, see Table AII.2.2. RCPn.n = harmonized anthropogenic emissions as reported by RCPs (Lamarque et al., 2010; 2011; Meinshausen et al., 2011a). SRES A2
and B1 and IS92a from TAR Appendix II.
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000
d
11.62 11.62 11.62 11.62 12.60 12.60
2010
d
13.65 10.69 19.10 11.04 20.30 14.50
2020
d
12.07 8.77 22.84 11.67 25.20 15.70
2030
d
7.36 8.47 23.46 12.29 31.40 16.60
2040
d
5.06 8.68 23.77 12.22 37.90 18.50
2050
d
2.95 9.04 23.73 12.37 45.60 20.90
2060
d
2.24 8.95 23.70 11.89 56.00 23.10
2070
d
2.07 9.04 23.45 11.81 63.60 22.50
2080
d
1.52 9.51 22.91 11.58 73.20 21.30
2090
d
1.22 10.50 21.98 11.14 82.80 22.50
2100
d
1.11 11.05 20.56 10.81 88.20 22.20
Table AII.2.5 | Anthropogenic CF
4
emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
1413
Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II
AII
Table AII.2.6 | Anthropogenic C
2
F
6
emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000
d
2.43 2.43 2.43 2.43 1.30 1.30
2010
d
4.29 2.34 2.62 2.50 2.00 1.50
2020
d
4.98 1.76 2.66 2.61 2.50 1.60
2030
d
2.33 1.80 2.69 2.75 3.10 1.70
2040
d
1.15 1.94 2.63 2.74 3.80 1.80
2050
d
0.55 2.03 2.56 2.79 4.60 2.10
2060
d
0.34 2.03 2.49 2.71 5.60 2.30
2070
d
0.26 1.99 2.50 2.74 6.40 2.20
2080
d
0.16 1.93 2.36 2.74 7.30 2.10
2090
d
0.10 1.97 2.26 2.68 8.30 2.20
2100
d
0.09 2.01 2.09 2.63 8.80 2.20
Table AII.2.7 | Anthropogenic C
6
F
14
emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000
d
0.213 0.213 0.213 0.213
2010
d
0.430 0.430 0.429 0.430
2020
d
0.220 0.220 0.220 0.220
2030
d
0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123
2040
d
0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112
2050
d
0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109
2060
d
0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108
2070
d
0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106
2080
d
0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103
2090
d
0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097
2100
d
0.090 0.088 0.088 0.090
Table AII.2.8 | Anthropogenic HFC-23 emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000
d
10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 13.0 13.0
2010
d
9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 15.0 15.0
2020
d
2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 5.0 5.0
2030
d
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.0 2.0
2040
d
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.0 2.0
2050
d
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0
2060
d
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0
2070
d
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0
2080
d
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
2090
d
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
2100
d
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
1414
Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables
AII
Table AII.2.10 | Anthropogenic HFC-125 emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.11 | Anthropogenic HFC-134a emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000
d
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.0 0.0
2010
d
20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 4.0 3.0
2020
d
55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 6.0 6.0
2030
d
71.2 71.2 71.2 71.2 9.0 8.0
2040
d
78.8 78.8 78.8 78.8 11.0 10.0
2050
d
76.5 76.5 76.5 76.5 14.0 14.0
2060
d
83.6 83.6 83.6 83.6 17.0 14.0
2070
d
92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 20.0 14.0
2080
d
95.4 95.4 95.4 95.4 24.0 14.0
2090
d
91.0 91.0 91.0 91.0 29.0 14.0
2100
d
82.7 82.7 82.7 82.7 33.0 13.0
Table AII.2.9 | Anthropogenic HFC-32 emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a
2000
d
8 8 8 8 0 0 0
2010
d
29 18 10 32 11 11 1
2020
d
82 29 9 63 21 21 9
2030
d
108 32 9 79 29 29 46
2040
d
122 31 10 99 35 36 111
2050
d
122 30 10 115 46 48 175
2060
d
138 27 11 128 56 48 185
2070
d
157 24 11 139 66 48 194
2080
d
165 24 12 144 79 48 199
2090
d
161 23 12 147 94 46 199
2100
d
150 23 12 148 106 44 199
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a
2000
d
72 72 72 72 80 80 148
2010
d
146 140 139 153 166 163 290
2020
d
173 184 153 255 252 249 396
2030
d
193 208 159 331 330 326 557
2040
d
209 229 163 402 405 414 738
2050
d
203 248 167 461 506 547 918
2060
d
225 246 172 506 633 550 969
2070
d
252 260 175 553 758 544 1020
2080
d
263 299 177 602 915 533 1047
2090
d
256 351 175 651 1107 513 1051
2100
d
239 400 171 696 1260 486 1055
1415
Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II
AII
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000
d
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 0.0 0.0
2010
d
23.1 14.0 7.0 23.2 9.0 8.0
2020
d
59.1 17.4 5.4 34.1 16.0 15.0
2030
d
74.7 20.3 6.0 38.5 22.0 21.0
2040
d
81.8 23.1 6.6 45.1 27.0 26.0
2050
d
79.0 25.6 7.1 49.8 35.0 35.0
2060
d
86.1 25.9 7.7 52.3 43.0 35.0
2070
d
94.2 28.2 8.3 54.1 51.0 35.0
2080
d
95.1 33.5 8.7 52.7 61.0 35.0
2090
d
88.7 39.6 9.0 50.2 73.0 34.0
2100
d
79.2 45.1 9.1 47.3 82.0 32.0
Table AII.2.12 | Anthropogenic HFC-143a emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000
d
1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0
2010
d
7.0 5.3 6.9 8.5 12.0 13.0
2020
d
2.6 1.4 2.5 2.7 17.0 18.0
2030
d
0.9 0.3 0.8 0.7 21.0 24.0
2040
d
0.8 0.2 0.7 0.7 26.0 30.0
2050
d
0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 32.0 39.0
2060
d
0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 40.0 40.0
2070
d
0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 48.0 39.0
2080
d
0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 58.0 38.0
2090
d
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 70.0 36.0
2100
d
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 80.0 34.0
Table AII.2.13 | Anthropogenic HFC-227ea emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000
d
11 11 11 11 0 0
2010
d
42 46 53 74 59 60
2020
d
32 86 65 143 79 80
2030
d
7 95 67 186 98 102
2040
d
0 97 68 181 121 131
2050
d
0 95 69 163 149 173
2060
d
0 87 70 150 190 173
2070
d
0 82 71 138 228 170
2080
d
0 80 70 129 276 166
2090
d
0 81 68 123 334 159
2100
d
0 83 65 130 388 150
Table AII.2.14 | Anthropogenic HFC-245fa emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
1416
Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables
AII
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000
d
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
2010
d
5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.0 6.0
2020
d
7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 8.0 7.0
2030
d
8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0
2040
d
9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.0 9.0
2050
d
10.8 10.8 10.8 10.4 11.0 11.0
2060
d
11.1 11.1 11.1 12.1 12.0 11.0
2070
d
11.0 11.0 11.0 13.9 14.0 11.0
2080
d
11.0 11.0 10.9 16.2 16.0 11.0
2090
d
10.7 10.7 10.7 18.9 19.0 11.0
2100
d
10.5 10.5 10.5 21.4 22.0 10.0
Table AII.2.15 | Anthropogenic HFC-43-10mee emissions (Gg yr
–1
)
Table AII.2.16 | Anthropogenic CO emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a
2000
d
1071 1071 1071 1071 877 877 1048
2010
d
1035 1041 1045 1054 977 789 1096
2020
d
984 997 1028 1058 1075 751 1145
2030
d
930 986 1030 1019 1259 603 1207
2040
d
879 948 1046 960 1344 531 1282
2050
d
825 875 1033 907 1428 471 1358
2060
d
779 782 996 846 1545 459 1431
2070
d
718 678 939 799 1662 456 1504
2080
d
668 571 879 759 1842 426 1576
2090
d
638 520 835 721 2084 399 1649
2100
d
612 483 798 694 2326 363 1722
Year MFR CLE REF
L
REF
U
POL
L
POL
U
2000
d
977 977 708 1197 706 1197
2010
d
771 1408 769 1408
2020
d
755 1629 705 1611
2030
d
729 904 707 1865 592 1803
2040
d
695 2165 620 2002
2050
d
591 2487 482 2218
2060
d
504 2787 363 2409
2070
d
450 3052 328 2558
2080
d
438 3279 268 2635
2090
d
410 3510 259 2714
2100
d
363 3735 253 2796
1417
Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II
AII
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a CLE MFR
2000
d
213 213 213 213 141 141 126 147 147
2010
d
216 209 215 217 155 141 142
2020
d
213 197 214 224 179 140 158
2030
d
202 201 217 225 202 131 173 146 103
2040
d
192 201 222 218 214 123 188
2050
d
179 191 220 209 225 116 202
2060
d
167 180 214 202 238 111 218
2070
d
152 167 204 194 251 103 234
2080
d
140 152 193 189 275 99 251
2090
d
132 145 182 182 309 96 267
2100
d
126 141 174 177 342 87 283
Table AII.2.17 | Anthropogenic NMVOC emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Year MFR CLE REF
L
REF
U
POL
L
POL
U
2000
d
38.0 38.0 29.1 41.6 29.1 41.6
2010
d
26.0 50.2 23.9 50.1
2020
d
26.3 60.4 21.6 59.2
2030
d
23.1 42.9 24.4 71.8 16.5 67.4
2040
d
21.5 86.3 14.1 75.3
2050
d
17.0 101.7 11.6 83.3
2060
d
13.2 115.7 11.4 89.8
2070
d
12.0 127.5 10.5 94.6
2080
d
11.5 137.2 9.6 97.2
2090
d
12.0 146.2 8.8 100.1
2100
d
13.0 155.0 8.0 104.0
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 CLE MFR
2000
d
38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 53.4 53.4
2010
d
43.5 42.4 43.1 43.5
2020
d
47.5 43.5 43.3 48.1
2030
d
50.8 45.2 46.2 52.1 69.8 69.8
2040
d
53.2 46.3 49.8 55.6
2050
d
55.5 46.4 53.0 58.4
2060
d
58.4 46.0 56.5 60.6
2070
d
61.2 45.2 59.5 62.4
2080
d
63.3 44.3 60.9 63.8
2090
d
65.2 43.9 62.1 65.3
2100
d
67.0 43.6 61.8 66.9
Table AII.2.18 | Anthropogenic NO
X
emissions (TgN yr
–1
)
Notes:
Odd nitrogen (NO
x
) emissions occur as NO or NO
2
, measured here as Tg of N.
1418
Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables
AII
Table AII.2.19 | Anthropogenic NH
3
emissions (TgN yr
–1
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 CLE MFR
2000
d
38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 53.4 53.4
2010
d
43.5 42.4 43.1 43.5
2020
d
47.5 43.5 43.3 48.1
2030
d
50.8 45.2 46.2 52.1 69.8 69.8
2040
d
53.2 46.3 49.8 55.6
2050
d
55.5 46.4 53.0 58.4
2060
d
58.4 46.0 56.5 60.6
2070
d
61.2 45.2 59.5 62.4
2080
d
63.3 44.3 60.9 63.8
2090
d
65.2 43.9 62.1 65.3
2100
d
67.0 43.6 61.8 66.9
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a
2000
d
55.9 55.9 55.9 55.9 69.0 69.0 79.0
2010
d
54.9 54.8 55.8 51.9 74.7 73.9 95.0
2020
d
44.5 50.3 49.9 47.6 99.5 74.6 111.0
2030
d
30.8 43.2 42.7 42.3 112.5 78.2 125.8
2040
d
20.9 35.0 41.9 33.5 109.0 78.5 139.4
2050
d
16.0 26.5 37.8 26.8 105.4 68.9 153.0
2060
d
13.8 21.0 34.0 23.0 89.6 55.8 151.8
2070
d
11.9 16.7 23.5 20.3 73.7 44.3 150.6
2080
d
9.9 13.2 15.9 18.3 64.7 36.1 149.4
2090
d
8.0 12.0 12.7 14.9 62.5 29.8 148.2
2100
d
6.7 11.4 10.8 13.1 60.3 24.9 147.0
Year MFR CLE REF
L
REF
U
POL
L
POL
U
2000
d
55.6 55.6 50.6 76.4 50.6 76.4
2010
d
53.1 81.8 52.7 78.7
2020
d
56.9 84.8 47.7 77.8
2030
d
17.9 58.8 60.1 86.7 29.8 76.3
2040
d
52.5 82.9 19.0 72.0
2050
d
44.2 72.3 12.4 61.7
2060
d
32.8 73.9 9.5 52.9
2070
d
30.5 77.7 7.8 49.8
2080
d
29.6 81.1 6.2 50.5
2090
d
22.8 84.5 5.1 52.5
2100
d
18.0 88.0 4.0 54.0
Table AII.2.20 | Anthropogenic SO
X
emissions (TgS yr
–1
)
Notes:
Anthropogenic sulphur emissions as SO
2
, measured here as Tg of S.
1419
Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II
AII
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a MFR* CLE*
2000
d
35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 81.4 81.4 81.4 35.0 35.0
2010
d
36.6 34.6 36.2 35.6 89.3 74.5 85.2 29.2 34.6
2020
d
36.6 30.8 36.1 34.5 97.0 71.5 89.0 28.6 32.6
2030
d
35.3 29.2 36.0 33.2 111.4 59.9 93.9 27.9 30.9
2040
d
32.3 28.0 36.4 31.6 118.1 54.2 99.8
2050
d
30.3 26.8 36.5 30.1 124.7 49.5 105.8
2060
d
29.6 25.0 35.7 28.5 133.9 48.6 111.5
2070
d
28.2 22.8 34.4 27.4 143.1 48.3 117.2
2080
d
27.0 20.7 33.4 26.4 157.2 46.0 122.9
2090
d
26.4 19.9 32.7 25.1 176.2 43.8 128.6
2100
d
25.5 19.5 32.2 24.1 195.2 41.0 134.4
Table AII.2.21 | Anthropogenic OC aerosols emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Notes:
For both MFR* and CLE* 23 Tg is added to Cofala et al. (2007) values to include biomass burning.
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a MFR* CLE*
2000
d
7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 12.40 12.40 12.40 7.91 7.91
2010
d
8.49 8.13 8.13 8.06 13.60 11.30 13.00 6.31 8.01
2020
d
8.27 7.84 7.77 7.66 14.80 10.90 13.60 5.81 7.41
2030
d
7.03 7.36 7.53 7.04 17.00 9.10 14.30 5.41 7.01
2040
d
5.80 6.81 7.39 6.22 18.00 8.30 15.20
2050
d
5.00 6.21 7.07 5.67 19.00 7.50 16.10
2060
d
4.46 5.56 6.48 5.22 20.40 7.40 17.00
2070
d
3.99 4.88 5.75 4.88 21.80 7.40 17.90
2080
d
3.70 4.23 5.15 4.66 24.00 7.00 18.70
2090
d
3.55 4.01 4.70 4.43 26.80 6.70 19.60
2100
d
3.39 3.88 4.41 4.27 29.70 6.20 20.50
Table AII.2.22 | Anthropogenic BC aerosols emissions (Tg yr
–1
)
Notes:
For both MFR* and CLE* 2.6 Tg added to Cofala et al. (2007) values to include biomass burning.
Year Historical
SRES A1
+ Biofuel
SRES A2 SRES B1 SRES B2
FAO2000
Baseline
a
FAO2000
Improved
a
Tilman
2001
a
Tubiello
2007
a
1910 0.0
1920 0.2
1925 0.6
1930 0.9
1935 1.3
1940 2.2
1950 3.7
1955 6.8
1960 9.5
1965 18.7
1970 31.6
1971 33.3
1972 36.2
1973 39.1
1974 38.6
1975 43.7
Table AII.2.23 | Anthropogenic nitrogen fixation (Tg-N yr
–1
)
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AII
Table AII.2.23 (continued)
Year Historical
SRES A1
+ Biofuel
SRES A2 SRES B1 SRES B2
FAO2000
Baseline
a
FAO2000
Improved
a
Tilman
2001
a
Tubiello
2007
a
1975 43.7
1976 46.4
1977 49.9
1978 53.8
1979 57.4
1980 60.6
1981 60.3
1982 61.3
1983 67.1
1984 70.9
1985 70.2
1986 72.5
1987 75.8
1988 79.5
1989 78.9
1990 77.1
1991 75.5
1992 73.7
1993 72.3
1994 72.4
1995 78.5
1996 82.6 77.8 77.8
1997 81.4
1998 82.8
1999 84.9
2000 82.1 87.0
2001 82.9
2002 85.2
2003 90.2
2004 91.7
2005 94.2
2007 98.4
2010 104.1 101.9 101.7 96.5
2015 – – – – 106.8 88.0
2020 122.6 110.7 111.2 100.9 135.0
2030 141.1 117.6 118.4 103.3 124.5 96.2
2040 153.3 130.7 122.2 103.5
2050 165.5 131.1 123.2 101.9 236.0
2060 171.3 134.0 121.4 99.2
2070 177.0 132.1 117.5 95.6
2080 180.1 138.1 111.6 91.5 205
2090 186.0 146.5 108.8 91.3
2100 192.5 149.8 104.1 91.0
Notes:
(a) See Chapter 6, Figure 6.30 and Erisman et al. (2008) for details and sources.
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AII.3: Natural Emissions
Table AII.3.1a | Net land (natural and land use) CO
2
emissions (PgC yr
–1
)
Table AII.3.1b | Net ocean CO
2
emissions (PgC yr
–1
)
Notes:
Ten-year average values are shown (2010
d
= average of 2005–2014). CO
2
emissions are inferred from ESMs used in CMIP5 (Jones et al., 2013). See notes Table AII.2.1a and Chapter 6, Sections
6.4.3 and 6.4.3.3 and Figure 6.24.
Notes:
See Table AII.3.1.a.
Year RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2000
d
–1.02 ± 0.87 –1.14 ± 0.87 –0.92 ± 0.93 –1.14 ± 0.87
2010
d
–1.49 ± 1.02 –1.85 ± 0.96 –1.03 ± 1.65 –1.30 ± 1.64
2020
d
–1.24 ± 1.35 –2.83 ± 1.47 –1.79 ± 1.95 –1.43 ± 1.82
2030
d
–1.28 ± 1.53 –2.84 ± 1.59 –2.37 ± 1.54 –1.76 ± 2.22
2040
d
–1.21 ± 1.33 –3.25 ± 1.58 –2.27 ± 1.46 –2.15 ± 2.13
2050
d
–1.00 ± 1.53 –3.07 ± 1.54 –1.98 ± 1.57 –2.35 ± 2.45
2060
d
–0.76 ± 0.83 –2.80 ± 1.83 –2.46 ± 2.01 –2.71 ± 2.38
2070
d
–0.68 ± 0.84 –2.59 ± 1.73 –2.40 ± 2.06 –2.57 ± 2.42
2080
d
–0.15 ± 0.81 –2.04 ± 1.48 –2.22 ± 2.12 –1.96 ± 2.64
2090
d
–0.03 ± 0.99 –2.12 ± 1.38 –2.77 ± 1.96 –1.63 ± 2.70
2100
d
0.36 ± 0.95 –1.54 ± 1.25 –2.13 ± 1.32 –1.27 ± 2.90
Year RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2000
d
–2.09 ± 0.19 –2.14 ± 0.32 –2.10 ± 0.17 –2.14 ± 0.32
2010
d
–2.44 ± 0.22 –2.50 ± 0.42 –2.44 ± 0.20 –2.53 ± 0.43
2020
d
–2.70 ± 0.26 –2.75 ± 0.46 –2.59 ± 0.22 –3.02 ± 0.51
2030
d
–2.59 ± 0.30 –2.98 ± 0.52 –2.69 ± 0.22 –3.47 ± 0.54
2040
d
–2.22 ± 0.32 –3.16 ± 0.56 –2.88 ± 0.27 –3.96 ± 0.67
2050
d
–1.83 ± 0.33 –3.22 ± 0.60 –3.16 ± 0.31 –4.47 ± 0.76
2060
d
–1.52 ± 0.30 –3.12 ± 0.63 –3.52 ± 0.36 –4.92 ± 0.84
2070
d
–1.23 ± 0.23 –2.82 ± 0.61 –3.79 ± 0.41 –5.24 ± 0.97
2080
d
–0.99 ± 0.27 –2.46 ± 0.59 –4.02 ± 0.44 –5.40 ± 1.14
2090
d
–0.85 ± 0.26 –2.22 ± 0.53 –3.96 ± 0.43 –5.45 ± 1.18
2100
d
–0.77 ± 0.26 –2.14 ± 0.47 –3.84 ± 0.42 –5.44 ± 1.22
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Year Observed RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a Min RCP8.5
&
Max
PI 278 ± 2 278 278 278 278 278 278 278
2011
obs
390.5 ± 0.3
2000 368.9 368.9 368.9 368.9 368 368 368
2005 378.8 378.8 378.8 378.8 378.8
2010 389.3 389.1 389.1 389.3 388 387 388 366 394 413
2020 412.1 411.1 409.4 415.8 416 411 414 386 425 449
2030 430.8 435.0 428.9 448.8 448 434 442 412 461 496
2040 440.2 460.8 450.7 489.4 486 460 472 443 504 555
2050 442.7 486.5 477.7 540.5 527 485 504 482 559 627
2060 441.7 508.9 510.6 603.5 574 506 538 530 625 713
2070 437.5 524.3 549.8 677.1 628 522 575 588 703 810
2080 431.6 531.1 594.3 758.2 690 534 615 651 790 914
2090 426.0 533.7 635.6 844.8 762 542 662 722 885 1026
2100 420.9 538.4 669.7 935.9 846 544 713 794 985 ± 97 1142
AII.4: Abundances of the Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases
Table AII.4.1 | CO
2
abundance (ppm)
Notes:
For observations (2011
obs
) see Chapter 2; and for projections see Box 1.1 (Figure 2), Sections 6.4.3.1, 11.3.1.1, 11.3.5.1.1. RCPn.n refers to values taken directly from the published RCP scenarios
using the MAGICC model (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; 2011b). These are harmonized to match observations up to 2005 (378.8 ppm) and project future abundances thereafter. RCP8.5
&
shows the
average and assessed 90% confidence interval for year 2100, plus the min-max full range derived from the CMIP5 archive for all years (P. Friedlingstein, based on Friedlingstein et al., 2006). 11 ESMs
participated (BCC-CSM-1, CanESM2, CESM1-BGC, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGem-2ES, INMCM4, IPSLCM5-LR, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, MRI-ESM1, and Nor-ESM1-ME), running the RCP8.5 anthropogenic
emission scenario forced by the RCP8.5 climate change scenario (see Figure 12.36). All abundances are mid-year. Projected values for SRES A2 and B1 and IS92 are the average of reference models
taken from the TAR Appendix II.
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
PI 720 720 720 720 722 ± 25 722 ± 25 722 ± 25 722 ± 25
2011
obs
1803 ± 4 1803 ± 4 1803 ± 4 1803 ± 4
2000 1751 1751 1751 1751 1760 1760 1760
2010 1773 1767 1769 1779 1861 1827 1855 1795 ± 18 1795 ± 18 1795 ± 18 1795 ± 18
2020 1731 1801 1786 1924 1997 1891 1979 1716 ± 23 1847 ± 21 1811 ± 22 1915 ± 25
2030 1600 1830 1796 2132 2163 1927 2129 1562 ± 38 1886 ± 28 1827 ± 28 2121 ± 44
2040 1527 1842 1841 2399 2357 1919 2306 1463 ± 50 1903 ± 37 1880 ± 36 2412 ± 74
2050 1452 1833 1895 2740 2562 1881 2497 1353 ± 60 1899 ± 47 1941 ± 48 2784 ± 116
2060 1365 1801 1939 3076 2779 1836 2663 1230 ± 71 1872 ± 59 1994 ± 61 3152 ± 163
2070 1311 1745 1962 3322 3011 1797 2791 1153 ± 78 1824 ± 72 2035 ± 77 3428 ± 208
2080 1285 1672 1940 3490 3252 1741 2905 1137 ± 88 1756 ± 87 2033 ± 94 3624 ± 250
2090 1268 1614 1819 3639 3493 1663 3019 1135 ± 98 1690 ± 100 1908 ± 111 3805 ± 293
2100 1254 1576 1649 3751 3731 1574 3136 1127 ± 106 1633 ± 110 1734 ± 124 3938 ± 334
Table AII.4.2 | CH
4
abundance (ppb)
Notes:
RCPn.n refers to values taken directly from the published RCP scenarios using the MAGICC model (Meinshausen et al., 2011b) and initialized in year 2005 at 1754 ppb. Values for SRES A2 and B1
and IS92 are from the TAR Appendix II. RCPn.n
&
values are best estimates with uncertainties (68% confidence intervals) from Chapter 11 (Section 11.3.5) based on Holmes et al. (2013) and using
RCP
&
emissions and uncertainties tabulated above. For RCP
&
the PI, year 2011 and year 2010 values are based on observations. RCP models used slightly different PI abundances than recommended
here (Table AII.1.1, Chapter 2).
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Table AII.4.3 | N
2
O abundance (ppb)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
PI 272 272 272 272 270 ± 7 270 ± 7 270 ± 7 270 ± 7
2011
obs
324 ± 1 324 ± 1 324 ± 1 324 ± 1
2000 316 316 316 316 316 316 316
2010 323 323 323 323 325 324 324 323 ± 3 323 ± 3 323 ± 3 323 ± 3
2020 329 330 330 332 335 333 333 330 ± 4 331 ± 4 331 ± 4 332 ± 4
2030 334 337 337 342 347 341 343 336 ± 5 339 ± 5 338 ± 5 342 ± 6
2040 339 344 345 354 360 349 353 342 ± 6 346 ± 7 346 ± 7 353 ± 8
2050 342 351 355 367 373 357 363 346 ± 8 353 ± 9 355 ± 9 365 ± 11
2060 343 356 365 381 387 363 372 349 ± 9 360 ± 10 364 ± 11 377 ± 13
2070 344 361 376 394 401 368 381 351 ± 10 365 ± 12 374 ± 13 389 ± 16
2080 344 366 386 408 416 371 389 352 ± 11 370 ± 13 384 ± 15 401 ± 18
2090 344 369 397 421 432 374 396 353 ± 11 374 ± 14 393 ± 17 413 ± 21
2100 344 372 406 435 447 375 403 354 ± 12 378 ± 16 401 ± 19 425 ± 24
Notes:
See notes Table AII.4.2.
Table AII.4.4 | SF
6
abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 Obs
2011
obs
7.3 ± 0.1
2010 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7 7
2020 8.9 8.7 10.3 9.9 11 9
2030 9.7 9.7 14.1 13.4 15 12
2040 10.4 10.9 17.9 17.6 20 15
2050 10.8 12.3 21.7 22.1 26 19
2060 11.0 13.8 25.6 27.2 32 23
2070 11.2 15.6 29.5 32.6 40 27
2080 11.3 17.6 33.4 38.1 48 30
2090 11.4 19.9 37.3 44.1 56 33
2100 11.4 22.3 41.0 50.5 65 35
Notes:
Projected SF
6
and PFC abundances (Tables AII.4.4 to AII.4.7) taken directly from RCPs (Meinshausen et al., 2011a). Observed values shown for year 2011.
Table AII.4.5 | CF
4
abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 Obs
2011
obs
79.0
2010 84 83 85 83 92 91
2020 93 90 99 91 107 101
2030 99 95 115 99 125 111
2040 103 101 130 107 148 122
2050 106 107 146 115 175 135
2060 108 113 162 123 208 150
2070 109 119 177 131 246 164
2080 110 125 193 138 291 179
2090 111 131 207 146 341 193
2100 112 138 222 153 397 208
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Table AII.4.6 | C
2
F
6
abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 Obs
2011
obs
4.2
2010 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 4 4
2020 6.2 4.8 5.0 5.0 5 4
2030 7.9 5.5 6.2 6.1 6 5
2040 8.6 6.3 7.3 7.2 7 6
2050 8.9 7.1 8.4 8.4 9 7
2060 9.1 7.9 9.4 9.6 11 8
2070 9.2 8.8 10.5 10.7 14 8
2080 9.3 9.6 11.5 11.8 17 9
2090 9.3 10.4 12.5 13.0 20 10
2100 9.3 11.3 13.4 14.1 23 11
Table AII.4.7 | C
6
F
14
abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2010 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
2020 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
2030 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
2040 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
2050 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20
2060 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
2070 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23
2080 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
2090 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
2100 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28
Table AII.4.8 | HFC-23 abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2011
obs
24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0
2010 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 26 26 23.2 ± 1 23.2 ± 1 23.2 ± 1 23.2 ± 1
2020 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 33 33 26.6 ± 1 26.6 ± 1 26.6 ± 1 26.6 ± 1
2030 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 35 35 26.3 ± 1 26.3 ± 1 26.3 ± 1 26.3 ± 1
2040 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 35 35 25.7 ± 1 25.8 ± 1 25.8 ± 1 25.8 ± 1
2050 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 35 35 24.9 ± 1 25.0 ± 1 25.1 ± 1 25.1 ± 1
2060 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.3 35 34 24.0 ± 1 24.2 ± 1 24.3 ± 1 24.4 ± 1
2070 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.6 34 34 23.0 ± 1 23.4 ± 1 23.4 ± 1 23.6 ± 1
2080 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.8 34 33 22.1 ± 1 22.5 ± 1 22.6 ± 1 22.8 ± 1
2090 22.4 22.5 22.7 23.0 34 33 21.2 ± 1 21.6 ± 1 21.8 ± 1 22.1 ± 1
2100 21.6 21.6 21.9 22.3 33 32 20.3 ± 1 20.8 ± 1 21.0 ± 1 21.3 ± 1
Notes:
RCPn.n HFC abundances (Tables AII.4.8 to AII.4.15) are as reported (Meinshausen et al., 2011a). SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a (where available) are taken from TAR Appendix II. Observed values are
shown for 2011 (see Chapter 2, and Table AII.1.1). The AR5 RCPn.n
&
abundances are calculated starting with observed abundances (adopted for 2010) and future tropospheric OH changes using
the methodology of Prather et al. (2012), updated for uncertainty in lifetime and scenario changes in OH using Holmes et al. (2013) and ACCMIP results (Stevenson et al., 2013; Voulgarakis et al.,
2013). Projected RCP
&
abundances are best estimates with 68% confidence range as uncertainties. See also notes Tables AII.4.2 and AII.5.9.
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Table AII.4.9 | HFC-32 abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2011
obs
4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
2010 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 1 1 4.1 ± 0 4.1 ± 0 4.1 ± 0 4.1 ± 0
2020 21.0 21.0 21.1 21.1 3 3 23.8 ± 2 24.0 ± 2 24.0 ± 2 24.0 ± 2
2030 34.7 35.2 35.5 35.8 4 4 38.1 ± 5 39.1 ± 5 39.1 ± 5 39.2 ± 5
2040 41.1 41.9 42.4 43.6 6 5 44.7 ± 6 46.7 ± 6 46.9 ± 6 47.8 ± 6
2050 41.9 42.8 43.9 46.2 7 7 44.3 ± 7 47.6 ± 7 48.2 ± 7 50.3 ± 8
2060 43.1 43.8 45.6 48.8 9 8 45.0 ± 7 49.6 ± 8 50.6 ± 8 53.8 ± 8
2070 47.9 48.1 50.7 54.7 11 8 49.4 ± 8 54.9 ± 8 56.8 ± 9 60.3 ± 9
2080 51.3 50.5 54.0 58.6 14 8 53.8 ± 9 58.2 ± 9 61.4 ± 10 64.7 ± 10
2090 51.0 49.6 52.8 58.2 17 8 54.0 ± 9 56.9 ±10 60.6 ± 10 64.4 ± 11
2100 47.5 45.6 47.4 53.8 20 8 50.5 ± 9 51.8 ± 9 55.2 ± 10 59.6 ± 11
Table AII.4.10 | HFC-125 abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2011
obs
9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6
2010 7.1 6.4 5.7 7.7 2 2 0 8.2 ± 1 8.2 ± 1 8.2 ± 1 8.2 ± 1
2020 27.4 14.3 7.6 25.7 8 8 2 30.9 ± 1 16.3 ± 1 9.6 ± 1 27.6 ± 1
2030 60.0 23.2 9.2 48.5 16 16 12 64.1 ± 3 25.2 ± 2 10.9 ± 1 51.0 ± 3
2040 90.5 29.7 10.6 72.0 24 24 40 95.5 ± 7 31.9 ± 3 12.2 ± 1 75.9 ± 5
2050 114.5 34.0 11.8 97.6 34 33 87 119.5 ± 11 36.6 ± 4 13.3 ± 2 103 ± 8
2060 133.4 36.0 12.9 122.9 45 43 137 139.0 ± 15 39.0 ± 5 14.4 ± 2 130 ± 12
2070 154.8 35.8 13.9 147.1 58 49 177 160.8 ± 20 39.4 ± 6 15.5 ± 2 156 ± 16
2080 176.2 34.8 14.8 168.7 72 54 210 183.2 ± 24 39.1 ± 6 16.6 ± 2 180 ± 20
2090 192.3 34.0 15.5 185.8 89 57 236 200.9 ± 29 38.7 ± 7 17.4 ± 3 199 ± 25
2100 200.2 33.2 15.8 198.9 107 58 255 210.5 ± 34 38.1 ± 7 18.0 ± 3 215 ± 30
Table AII.4.11 | HFC-134a abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2011 63 ± 1 63 ± 1 63 ± 1 63 ± 1
2010 56 56 56 56 55 55 94 58 ± 3 58 ± 3 58 ± 3 58 ± 3
2020 96 95 90 112 111 108 183 97 ± 5 98 ± 5 91 ± 5 117 ± 5
2030 122 129 109 180 170 165 281 123 ± 9 132 ± 9 110 ± 8 184 ± 11
2040 142 154 121 245 231 223 401 143 ± 12 157 ± 12 122 ± 10 249 ± 17
2050 153 175 129 311 299 293 537 150 ± 15 178 ± 16 130 ± 12 314 ± 24
2060 160 187 135 370 382 352 657 155 ± 16 192 ± 19 137 ± 14 373 ± 32
2070 175 193 141 423 480 380 743 168 ± 18 200 ± 21 143 ± 15 427 ± 39
2080 191 205 144 471 594 391 807 184 ± 21 216 ± 23 148 ± 16 476 ± 47
2090 200 229 144 517 729 390 850 193 ± 23 242 ± 26 150 ± 18 524 ± 56
2100 199 262 141 561 877 379 878 192 ± 25 275 ± 30 148 ± 19 570 ± 64
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Table AII.4.12 | HFC-143a abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2011 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
2010 10.2 9.4 8.4 10.8 3 2 11 ± 1 11 ± 1 11 ± 1 11 ± 1
2020 33.9 17.8 10.1 28.2 10 9 37 ± 1 19 ± 1 12 ± 1 29 ± 1
2030 72.1 26.8 12.1 46.8 20 18 75 ± 2 28 ± 1 14 ± 1 48 ± 1
2040 109.9 36.0 14.0 65.6 32 29 13 ± 4 38 ± 1 16 ± 1 67 ± 2
2050 142.1 45.4 16.0 85.7 45 43 144 ± 6 47 ± 2 18 ± 1 88 ± 3
2060 168.6 54.0 18.1 105.2 62 57 170 ± 8 56 ± 3 20 ± 1 107 ± 4
2070 196.1 61.4 20.1 123.2 81 68 197 ± 11 64 ± 3 22 ± 1 126 ± 6
2080 222.2 69.7 22.2 138.7 103 77 223 ± 14 73 ± 4 24 ± 2 142 ± 8
2090 242.0 80.2 24.0 150.2 129 85 243 ± 17 85 ± 5 26 ± 2 154 ± 9
2100 252.9 92.6 25.6 157.9 157 90 254 ± 20 98 ± 6 28 ± 2 163 ± 11
Table AII.4.13 | HFC-227ea abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2011 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65
2010 1.43 1.28 1.42 1.56 2 2 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.1
2020 2.81 2.10 2.78 3.30 5 6 2.0 ± 0.1 1.5 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.1 2.4 ± 0.1
2030 2.48 1.71 2.44 2.77 10 10 2.0 ± 0.1 1.3 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.1 2.2 ± 0.1
2040 2.09 1.35 2.04 2.29 14 15 1.8 ± 0.1 1.1 ± 0.1 1.8 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.2
2050 1.74 1.06 1.68 1.92 19 21 1.6 ± 0.2 1.0 ± 0.1 1.6 ± 0.2 1.8 ± 0.2
2060 1.35 0.81 1.31 1.55 25 27 1.3 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.1 1.3 ± 0.2 1.5 ± 0.2
2070 1.04 0.61 1.01 1.23 32 31 1.1 ± 0.2 0.6 ± 0.1 1.1 ± 0.2 1.3 ± 0.2
2080 0.81 0.45 0.78 0.99 40 34 0.9 ± 0.2 0.5 ± 0.1 0.9 ± 0.2 1.1 ± 0.2
2090 0.63 0.34 0.59 0.79 49 35 0.8 ± 0.2 0.4 ± 0.1 0.8 ± 0.2 0.9 ± 0.2
2100 1.43 1.28 1.42 1.56 2 2 0.6 ± 0.2 0.3 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.2
Table AII.4.14 | HFC-245fa abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2011 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24
2010 7.5 7.3 8.2 9.5 8 8 1 ± 0.2 1 ± 0.2 1 ± 0.2 1 ± 0.2
2020 12.1 19.3 18.1 31.5 17 17 10.2 ± 1 18.9 ± 2 16.4 ± 2 31.0 ± 4
2030 7.4 28.2 21.3 51.2 23 23 6.6 ± 1.5 29.2 ± 4 21.6 ± 3 53.1 ± 8
2040 2.3 31.2 22.6 61.7 29 29 2.2 ± 1.0 33.0 ± 6 23.7 ± 4 63.8 ± 10
2050 0.6 31.9 23.3 62.0 36 38 0.7 ± 0.5 34.1 ± 7 24.6 ± 5 64.4 ± 12
2060 0.2 30.6 23.8 59.1 46 43 0.2 ± 0.2 32.9 ± 7 25.3 ± 5 61.7 ± 13
2070 0.0 28.2 24.2 55.3 58 44 0.1 ± 0.1 30.8 ± 7 25.9 ± 5 58.1 ± 13
2080 0.0 26.4 24.3 51.5 72 43 0.0 ± 0.1 29.3 ± 7 26.4 ± 6 54.4 ± 12
2090 0.0 25.8 23.6 48.0 88 42 0.0 ± 0.0 28.6 ± 6 26.0 ± 6 51.0 ± 12
2100 0.0 26.0 22.3 47.3 105 40 0.0 ± 0.0 28.6 ± 6 24.9 ± 6 50.6 ± 11
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Table AII.4.15 | HFC-43-10mee abundance (ppt)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2011 — — — —
2010 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 1 1 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0
2020 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.47 2 1 1.2 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.1
2030 2.09 2.11 2.12 2.14 2 2 2.0 ± 0.2 2.1 ± 0.2 2.1 ± 0.2 2.1 ± 0.2
2040 2.61 2.64 2.66 2.68 3 2 2.7 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3
2050 3.13 3.17 3.22 3.23 3 3 3.3 ± 0.4 3.4 ± 0.4 3.4 ± 0.4 3.4 ± 0.4
2060 3.56 3.61 3.70 3.83 4 3 3.7 ± 0.6 3.9 ± 0.6 4.0 ± 0.6 4.1 ± 0.6
2070 3.78 3.81 3.96 4.52 4 4 3.9 ± 0.7 4.3 ± 0.7 4.3 ± 0.7 4.9 ± 0.7
2080 3.89 3.88 4.08 5.27 5 4 4.1 ± 0.8 4.4 ± 0.8 4.6 ± 0.8 5.8 ± 0.9
2090 3.93 3.87 4.10 6.14 6 4 4.2 ± 0.8 4.5 ± 0.8 4.7 ± 0.9 6.7 ± 1.0
2100 3.91 3.81 3.99 7.12 7 4 4.2 ± 0.9 4.4 ± 0.9 4.6 ± 0.9 7.9 ± 1.2
Table AII.4.16 | Montreal Protocol greenhouse gas abundances (ppt)
Year CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl
4
CH
3
CCl
3
HCFC-22
2011* 238 ± 1 528 ± 2 74.5 ± 0.5 15.8 8.4 86 ± 2 6.4 ± 0.4 213 ± 2
2010 240.9 532.5 75.6 16.4 8.4 87.6 8.3 206.8
2020 213.0 492.8 67.4 15.8 8.4 70.9 1.5 301.8
2030 182.6 448.0 59.9 15.1 8.4 54.4 0.2 265.4
2040 153.5 405.8 53.3 14.4 8.4 40.3 0.0 151.0
2050 127.2 367.3 47.4 13.6 8.4 29.2 0.0 71.1
2060 104.4 332.4 42.1 12.9 8.3 20.0 0.0 31.5
2070 85.2 300.7 37.4 12.3 8.3 13.6 0.0 13.7
2080 69.1 272.1 33.3 11.6 8.2 9.3 0.0 5.9
2090 55.9 246.2 29.6 11.1 8.2 6.3 0.0 2.6
2100 45.1 222.8 26.3 10.5 8.1 4.3 0.0 1.1
Year HCFC-141b HCFC-142b Halon 1211 Halon 1202 Halon 1301 Halon 2402 CH
3
Br CH
3
Cl
2011* 21.4 ± 0.5 21.2 ± 0.5 4.07 0.00 3.23 0.45 7.1 534
2010 20.3 20.5 4.07 0.00 3.20 0.46 7.2 550
2020 30.9 30.9 3.08 0.00 3.29 0.38 7.1 550
2030 34.4 31.2 2.06 0.00 3.19 0.27 7.1 550
2040 27.9 23.3 1.30 0.00 2.97 0.18 7.1 550
2050 19.3 14.9 0.78 0.00 2.71 0.12 7.1 550
2060 12.4 9.0 0.46 0.00 2.43 0.07 7.1 550
2070 7.7 5.2 0.26 0.00 2.16 0.05 7.1 550
2080 4.7 3.0 0.15 0.00 1.90 0.03 7.1 550
2090 2.9 1.7 0.08 0.00 1.66 0.02 7.1 550
2100 1.7 0.9 0.05 0.00 1.44 0.01 7.1 550
Notes:
Present day (2011*) is from Chapter 2; projections are from Scenario A1, WMO Ozone Assessment (WMO 2010).
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AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes
Table AII.5.1 | Stratospheric O
3
column changes (DU)
Notes:
Observed O
3
columns and trends taken from WMO (Douglass and Filetov, 2010), subtracting tropospheric column O
3
(Table AII.5.2) with uncertainty estimates driven by polar variability. CMIP5
RCP results are from Eyring et al. (2013). The multi-model mean is derived from the CMIP5 models with predictive (interactive or semi-offline) stratospheric and tropospheric ozone chemistry. The
absolute value is shown for year 2000. All other years are differences relative to (minus) year 2000. The multi-model standard deviation is shown only for year 2000; it does not change much over
time; and, representing primarily the spread in absolute O
3
column, it is larger than the standard deviation of the changes (not evaluated here). All models used the same projections for ozone-
depleting substances. Near-term differences in projected O
3
columns across scenarios reflect model sampling (i.e., different sets of models contributing to each RCP), while long-term changes reflect
changes in N
2
O, CH
4
and climate. See Section 11.3.5.1.2.
Year Obs RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
1850 17 17 17 17
1980 11 15 15 15 15
2000 269 ± 8 276 ± 9 276 ± 9 276 ± 9 276 ± 9
2010 0 2 –1 1 –2
2020 4 0 3 2
2030 8 4 7 5
2040 9 7 10 9
2050 12 10 13 12
2060 13 12 14 15
2070 13 11 15 16
2080 12 11 16 15
2090 13 12 16 18
2100 15 13 17 20
Table AII.5.2 | Tropospheric O
3
column changes (DU)
Year CMIP5 ACCMIP
RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
1850 –10.2 –10.2 –10.2 –10.2 –8.9 –8.9 –8.9 –8.9
1980 –2.0 –2.0 –2.0 –2.0 –1.3 –1.3 –1.3 –1.3
2000 31.1 ± 3.3 31.1 ± 3.3 31.1 ± 3.3 31.1 ± 3.3 30.8 ± 2.1 30.8 ± 2.1 30.8 ± 2.1 30.8 ± 2.1
2010 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.8
2020 1.0 0.9 1.0 2.1
2030 0.6 1.5 1.4 3.5 –1.3 1.0 –0.1 1.8
2040 0.5 1.6 2.1 4.5
2050 0.0 1.7 2.4 5.7
2060 –0.7 1.3 2.6 7.1
2070 –1.6 0.5 2.3 8.1
2080 –2.5 –0.1 2.0 8.9
2090 –2.8 –0.4 1.5 9.5
2100 –3.1 –0.5 1.1 10.2 –5.4 –2.2 –2.6 5.3
(continued on next page)
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Year A2 B1 IS92a CLE MFR
1850
1980
2000 34.0 34.0 34.0 32.6 32.6
2010 1.7 0.8 1.5
2020 4.2 1.6 3.1
2030 6.8 1.9 4.7 1.5 ± 0.8 –1.4 ± 0.4
2040 8.6 1.8 6.1
2050 10.2 1.0 7.6
2060 11.7 0.0 8.9
2070 13.2 –0.9 10.0
2080 15.3 –1.9 11.1
2090 18.0 –2.8 12.1
2100 20.8 –3.9 13.2
Notes:
RCP results from CMIP5 (Eyring et al., 2013) and ACCMIP (Young et al., 2013). For ACCMIP all models have interactive tropospheric ozone chemistry and are included, in contrast to the CMIP5 multi-
model mean which includes only those models with predictive (interactive or semi-offline) stratospheric and tropospheric ozone chemistry. The absolute value is shown for year 2000. All other years
are differences relative to (minus) year 2000. The multi-model standard deviation is shown only for year 2000; it does not change much over time; and, representing primarily the spread in absolute
O
3
columns, it is larger than the standard deviation of the changes across individual models (not evaluated here). SRES values are from TAR Appendix II. CLE/MFR scenarios are from Dentener et al.
(2005, 2006): CLE includes climate change, MFR does not. See Section 11.3.5.1.2.
Table AII.5.2 (continued)
Table AII.5.3 | Total aerosol optical depth (AOD)
Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
1860
d
0.056 0.101 0.161 0.094 0.101 0.092 0.100
1870
d
0.058 0.102 0.162 0.095 0.102 0.094 0.101
1180
d
0.058 0.102 0.163 0.095 0.102 0.094 0.101
1890
d
0.059 0.104 0.164 0.098 0.104 0.096 0.103
1900
d
0.058 0.105 0.166 0.099 0.105 0.097 0.104
1910
d
0.059 0.107 0.169 0.101 0.107 0.099 0.106
1920
d
0.060 0.108 0.170 0.102 0.108 0.100 0.107
1930
d
0.061 0.110 0.173 0.104 0.110 0.101 0.109
1940
d
0.061 0.111 0.175 0.105 0.111 0.103 0.110
1950
d
0.060 0.115 0.181 0.108 0.115 0.106 0.113
1960
d
0.064 0.122 0.192 0.116 0.122 0.113 0.120
1970
d
0.065 0.130 0.204 0.123 0.130 0.120 0.128
1980
d
0.066 0.135 0.221 0.127 0.135 0.124 0.133
1990
d
0.068 0.138 0.231 0.129 0.138 0.126 0.135
2000
d
0.068 0.136 0.232 0.127 0.136 0.124 0.134
2010
d
0.127 0.137 0.124 0.133
2020
d
0.123 0.134 0.122 0.132
2030
d
0.117 0.130 0.119 0.130
2040
d
0.111 0.126 0.118 0.126
2050
d
0.108 0.123 0.117 0.124
2060
d
0.106 0.119 0.116 0.121
2070
d
0.105 0.116 0.110 0.120
2080
d
0.103 0.114 0.107 0.118
2090
d
0.102 0.112 0.106 0.118
2100
d
0.101 0.111 0.105 0.117
Number of models 21 15 21 13 19
Notes:
Multi-model decadal global means (2030
d
= 2025–2034, 2100
d
= 2095–2100) from CMIP5 models reporting AOD. The numbers of models for each experiment are indicated in the bottom row.
The full range of models (given only for historical period for AOD and AAOD) is large and systematic in that models tend to scale relative to one another. Historical estimates for different RCPs vary
because of the models included. RCP4.5 included the full set of CMIP5 models contributing aerosol results (21). The standard deviation of the models is 28% (AOD) and 62% (AAOD) (N. Mahowald,
CMIP5 archive; Lamarque et al., 2013; Shindell et al., 2013). See Sections 11.3.5.1.3 and 11.3.6.1.
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Table AII.5.4 | Absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD)
Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
1860
d
0.00050 0.0035 0.0054 0.0033 0.0035 0.0031 0.0035
1870
d
0.00060 0.0035 0.0054 0.0033 0.0035 0.0032 0.0036
1180
d
0.00060 0.0036 0.0054 0.0034 0.0036 0.0032 0.0036
1890
d
0.00060 0.0036 0.0055 0.0035 0.0036 0.0033 0.0037
1900
d
0.00070 0.0037 0.0056 0.0035 0.0037 0.0033 0.0038
1910
d
0.00070 0.0038 0.0057 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0038
1920
d
0.00070 0.0038 0.0058 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0039
1930
d
0.00070 0.0038 0.0057 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0038
1940
d
0.00070 0.0038 0.0057 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0039
1950
d
0.00070 0.0038 0.0058 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0039
1960
d
0.00080 0.0040 0.0059 0.0038 0.0040 0.0036 0.0040
1970
d
0.00090 0.0042 0.0065 0.0040 0.0042 0.0038 0.0043
1980
d
0.00100 0.0046 0.0073 0.0044 0.0046 0.0042 0.0046
1990
d
0.00110 0.0049 0.0079 0.0047 0.0049 0.0044 0.0049
2000
d
0.00120 0.0050 0.0084 0.0048 0.0050 0.0045 0.0051
2010
d
0.0050 0.0051 0.0046 0.0051
2020
d
0.0050 0.0050 0.0045 0.0050
2030
d
0.0047 0.0049 0.0045 0.0049
2040
d
0.0043 0.0048 0.0044 0.0047
2050
d
0.0041 0.0046 0.0044 0.0046
2060
d
0.0039 0.0044 0.0043 0.0045
2070
d
0.0037 0.0042 0.0041 0.0044
2080
d
0.0037 0.0040 0.0039 0.0043
2090
d
0.0036 0.0039 0.0038 0.0043
2100
d
0.0036 0.0039 0.0038 0.0042
Number of models 14 11 14 10 12
Notes:
See notes Table AII.5.3.
Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
1860
d
0.09 0.61 1.42 0.60 0.61 0.57 0.60
1870
d
0.10 0.62 1.45 0.62 0.62 0.59 0.61
1180
d
0.12 0.65 1.49 0.64 0.65 0.61 0.64
1890
d
0.16 0.68 1.57 0.67 0.68 0.64 0.66
1900
d
0.21 0.73 1.65 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.72
1910
d
0.23 0.79 1.80 0.79 0.79 0.76 0.78
1920
d
0.23 0.83 1.84 0.83 0.83 0.80 0.81
1930
d
0.24 0.87 1.94 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.86
1940
d
0.25 0.93 2.05 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.92
1950
d
0.27 1.03 2.21 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.01
1960
d
0.31 1.25 2.67 1.29 1.25 1.24 1.23
1970
d
0.35 1.48 3.14 1.52 1.48 1.45 1.47
1980
d
0.37 1.58 3.33 1.62 1.58 1.54 1.58
1990
d
0.37 1.59 3.31 1.63 1.59 1.55 1.60
2000
d
0.37 1.55 3.17 1.59 1.55 1.53 1.56
Table AII.5.5 | Sulphate aerosol atmospheric burden (TgS)
(continued on next page)
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Notes:
See notes Table AII.5.3. The standard deviation of the models is about 50% for sulphate, OC and BC aerosol loadings (N. Mahowald, CMIP5 archive; Lamarque et al., 2013; Shindell et al., 2013).
Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2010
d
1.57 1.59 1.52 1.54
2020
d
1.43 1.54 1.43 1.51
2030
d
1.21 1.44 1.33 1.44
2040
d
1.03 1.31 1.34 1.31
2050
d
0.94 1.16 1.29 1.20
2060
d
0.90 1.05 1.24 1.13
2070
d
0.86 0.96 1.06 1.08
2080
d
0.81 0.88 0.92 1.05
2090
d
0.76 0.85 0.86 0.98
2100
d
0.71 0.83 0.80 0.94
Number of models 18 12 18 10 16
Table AII.5.5 | (continued)
Table AII.5.6 | OC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg)
Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
1860
d
0.34 1.08 2.7 1.09 1.08 1.13 1.12
1870
d
0.35 1.09 2.7 1.10 1.09 1.14 1.13
1180
d
0.36 1.09 2.7 1.11 1.09 1.15 1.14
1890
d
0.35 1.10 2.8 1.12 1.10 1.16 1.15
1900
d
0.36 1.11 2.8 1.12 1.11 1.16 1.15
1910
d
0.33 1.10 2.8 1.11 1.10 1.15 1.15
1920
d
0.34 1.08 2.7 1.09 1.08 1.12 1.13
1930
d
0.33 1.07 2.6 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.12
1940
d
0.33 1.07 2.6 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.12
1950
d
0.36 1.08 2.6 1.08 1.08 1.11 1.12
1960
d
0.41 1.13 2.7 1.13 1.13 1.17 1.17
1970
d
0.46 1.20 2.9 1.22 1.20 1.26 1.24
1980
d
0.54 1.28 3.1 1.32 1.28 1.36 1.33
1990
d
0.53 1.38 3.3 1.44 1.38 1.48 1.43
2000
d
0.53 1.41 3.5 1.47 1.41 1.52 1.46
2010
d
1.59 1.21 1.55 1.29
2020
d
1.59 1.12 1.56 1.26
2030
d
1.56 1.08 1.55 1.25
2040
d
1.47 1.06 1.57 1.22
2050
d
1.41 1.04 1.57 1.20
2060
d
1.40 1.01 1.56 1.17
2070
d
1.36 0.96 1.55 1.14
2080
d
1.33 0.92 1.55 1.13
2090
d
1.32 0.90 1.54 1.10
2100
d
1.30 0.89 1.55 1.09
Number of models 19 12 19 10 17
Notes:
See notes Table AII.5.5.
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Table AII.5.7 | BC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg)
Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
1860
d
0.037 0.059 0.127 0.058 0.059 0.057 0.059
1870
d
0.039 0.063 0.133 0.062 0.063 0.061 0.064
1180
d
0.040 0.068 0.139 0.066 0.068 0.065 0.069
1890
d
0.043 0.075 0.149 0.070 0.075 0.070 0.076
1900
d
0.045 0.082 0.156 0.076 0.082 0.075 0.083
1910
d
0.048 0.089 0.167 0.081 0.089 0.081 0.091
1920
d
0.049 0.092 0.167 0.083 0.092 0.082 0.095
1930
d
0.049 0.090 0.161 0.082 0.090 0.081 0.092
1940
d
0.051 0.091 0.162 0.082 0.091 0.082 0.093
1950
d
0.053 0.094 0.165 0.085 0.094 0.085 0.096
1960
d
0.061 0.102 0.179 0.094 0.102 0.094 0.105
1970
d
0.071 0.115 0.201 0.107 0.115 0.107 0.117
1980
d
0.088 0.141 0.245 0.130 0.141 0.130 0.144
1990
d
0.098 0.157 0.274 0.146 0.157 0.145 0.161
2000
d
0.101 0.164 0.293 0.153 0.164 0.152 0.169
2010
d
0.170 0.174 0.157 0.170
2020
d
0.169 0.174 0.152 0.164
2030
d
0.144 0.166 0.147 0.153
2040
d
0.120 0.155 0.144 0.138
2050
d
0.103 0.141 0.138 0.127
2060
d
0.091 0.126 0.127 0.118
2070
d
0.081 0.110 0.113 0.110
2080
d
0.075 0.094 0.101 0.106
2090
d
0.071 0.087 0.092 0.102
2100
d
0.068 0.084 0.087 0.099
Number of models 19 13 19 11 17
Notes:
See notes Table AII.5.5.
Year RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
RCP2.6^ RCP4.5^ RCP6.0^ RCP8.5^
2000 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3
2010 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3
2020 11.0 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3
2030 10.8 ± 1.3 11.3 ± 1.4 11.3 ± 1.4 11.4 ± 1.4 10.6 ± 1.4 11.4 ± 2.1 11.1 ± 1.4 11.2 ± 1.4
2040 10.6 ± 1.3 11.3 ± 1.4 11.4 ± 1.4 11.8 ± 1.4
2050 10.2 ± 1.3 11.3 ± 1.4 11.5 ± 1.4 12.2 ± 1.5
2060 9.9 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.4 11.6 ± 1.4 12.6 ± 1.6
2070 9.9 ± 1.4 11.2 ± 1.5 11.8 ± 1.5 12.6 ± 1.7
2080 10.4 ± 1.5 11.1 ± 1.5 11.9 ± 1.6 12.6 ± 1.8
2090 10.4 ± 1.6 10.9 ± 1.6 11.7 ± 1.7 12.6 ± 1.8
2100 10.6 ± 1.6 10.7 ± 1.6 11.4 ± 1.8 12.5 ± 1.9 10.7 ± 1.6 10.1 ± 1.5 11.1 ± 1.8 12.1 ± 2.0
Table AII.5.8 | CH
4
atmospheric lifetime (yr) against loss by tropospheric OH
Notes:
RCPn.n
&
lifetimes based on best estimate with uncertainty for 2000–2010 (Prather et al., 2012) and then projecting changes in key factors (Holmes et al., 2013). All uncertainties are 68% confidence
intervals. RCPn.n
^
lifetimes are from ACCMIP results (Voulgarakis et al., 2013) scaled to 11.2 ± 1.3 yr for year 2000; the ACCMIP mean and standard deviation in 2000 are 9.8 ± 1.5 yr. Projected
ACCMIP values combine the present day uncertainty with the model standard deviation of future change. Note that the total atmospheric lifetime of CH
4
must include other losses (e.g., stratosphere,
surface, tropospheric chlorine), and for 2010 it is 9.1 ± 0.9 yr, see Chapter 8, Section 11.3.5.1.1.
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Year RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
2010 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10
2020 130 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10
2030 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 130 ± 10
2040 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 129 ± 10
2050 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 129 ± 10
2060 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 128 ± 10
2070 129 ± 11 128 ± 11 128 ± 10 128 ± 11
2080 128 ± 11 128 ± 11 128 ± 11 127 ± 11
2090 128 ± 11 128 ± 11 127 ± 11 127 ± 11
2100 128 ± 11 127 ± 11 127 ± 11 126 ± 11
Table AII.5.9 | N
2
O atmospheric lifetime (yr)
Notes:
RCPn.n
&
lifetimes based on projections from Fleming et al. (2011) and Prather et al. (2012). All uncertainties are 68% confidence intervals.
AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing
Table AII.6.1 | ERF from CO
2
(W m
–2
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a
2000 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.50
2010 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.78 1.77 1.78
2020 2.11 2.09 2.07 2.15 2.16 2.09 2.13
2030 2.34 2.40 2.32 2.56 2.55 2.38 2.48
2040 2.46 2.70 2.58 3.03 2.99 2.69 2.83
2050 2.49 2.99 2.90 3.56 3.42 2.98 3.18
2060 2.48 3.23 3.25 4.15 3.88 3.20 3.53
2070 2.43 3.39 3.65 4.76 4.36 3.37 3.89
2080 2.35 3.46 4.06 5.37 4.86 3.49 4.25
2090 2.28 3.49 4.42 5.95 5.39 3.57 4.64
2100 2.22 3.54 4.70 6.49 5.95 3.59 5.04
Notes:
RCPn.n ERF based on RCP published projections (Tables AII.4.1 to AII.4.3) and TAR formula for RF. See Chapter 8, Figure 8.18, Section 11.3.5, 11.3.6.1, Figure 12.3. SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a
calculated from abundances in Tables AII.4.1 to AII.4.3.
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a
2000 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.48
2010 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.50 0.51
2020 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.54 0.56 0.53 0.56
2030 0.42 0.50 0.49 0.61 0.62 0.54 0.61
2040 0.39 0.51 0.51 0.70 0.68 0.54 0.67
2050 0.36 0.50 0.53 0.80 0.75 0.52 0.73
2060 0.32 0.49 0.54 0.90 0.81 0.51 0.78
2070 0.30 0.47 0.55 0.97 0.88 0.49 0.82
2080 0.29 0.44 0.54 1.01 0.95 0.47 0.85
2090 0.28 0.42 0.50 1.05 1.01 0.44 0.88
2100 0.27 0.41 0.44 1.08 1.07 0.41 0.92
Table AII.6.2 | ERF from CH
4
(W m
–2
)
Notes:
See notes Table AII.6.1.
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Table AII.6.3 | ERF from N
2
O (W m
–2
)
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a
2000 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
2010 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
2020 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20
2030 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.23
2040 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.25 0.26
2050 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.30 0.32 0.27 0.29
2060 0.23 0.27 0.29 0.34 0.36 0.29 0.32
2070 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.40 0.30 0.34
2080 0.23 0.30 0.36 0.42 0.44 0.31 0.37
2090 0.23 0.31 0.39 0.46 0.49 0.32 0.39
2100 0.23 0.32 0.41 0.49 0.53 0.32 0.41
Notes:
See notes Table AII.6.1.
Notes:
See notes Table AII.6.4.
Table AII.6.4 | ERF from all HFCs (W m
–2
)
Year Historical RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2011* 0.019
2010 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.020
2020 0.038 0.034 0.030 0.044
2030 0.056 0.046 0.036 0.069
2040 0.071 0.055 0.040 0.091
2050 0.083 0.061 0.042 0.110
2060 0.092 0.064 0.044 0.128
2070 0.104 0.066 0.046 0.144
2080 0.116 0.069 0.047 0.159
2090 0.124 0.074 0.047 0.171
2100 0.126 0.080 0.046 0.182
Notes:
See Table 8.3, 8.A.1, Section 11.3.5.1.1. ERF is calculated from RCP published abundances (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb) and AR5 radiative efficiencies
(Chapter 8).
Table AII.6.5 | ERF from all PFCs and SF
6
(W m
–2
)
Year Historical RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2011* 0.009
2010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009
2020 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.012
2030 0.014 0.013 0.017 0.015
2040 0.015 0.014 0.021 0.019
2050 0.015 0.016 0.025 0.022
2060 0.016 0.017 0.029 0.026
2070 0.016 0.019 0.033 0.031
2080 0.016 0.021 0.038 0.035
2090 0.016 0.023 0.042 0.039
2100 0.016 0.026 0.045 0.044
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Table AII.6.6 | ERF from Montreal Protocol greenhouse gases (W m
–2
)
Year Historical WMO A1
2011* 0.328
2020 0.33 ± 0.01
2030 0.29 ± 0.01
2040 0.24 ± 0.01
2050 0.20 ± 0.01
2060 0.17 ± 0.02
2070 0.15 ± 0.02
2080 0.13 ± 0.02
2090 0.11 ± 0.02
2100 0.10 ± 0.02
Notes:
See Table 8.3, 8.A.1. ERF is calculated from AR5 radiative efficiency and projected abundances
in Scenario A1 of WMO/UNEP assessment (WMO 2010). The 68% confidence interval shown is
approximated by combining uncertainty in the radiative efficiency of each gas (±6.1%) and the
decay of each gas since 2010 from Table AII.4.16 (±15%). All sources of uncertainty are assumed
to be independent (see Chapters 2 and 8).
Year AR5 CCMVal-2
1960 0.0
1980 –0.033
2000 –0.079
2011* –0.05
2050 –0.055
2100 –0.075
Table AII.6.7a | ERF from stratospheric O
3
changes since 1850 (W m
–2
)
Notes:
AR5 results are from Chapter 8, see also Sections 11.3.5.1.2, 11.3.6.1. CCMVal-2 results (Cionni
et al. 2011) are the multi-model average (13 chemistry–climate models) running a single
scenario for stratospheric change: REF-B2 scenario of CCMVal-2 with SRES A1B climate scenario.
Year AR5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
1980 0.31 ± 0.05 0.31 ± 0.05 0.31 ± 0.05 0.31 ± 0.05
2000 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36
2011* 0.40
2030 0.32 0.38 0.36 0.44
2100 0.17 0.27 0.27 0.60 ± 0.11
Table AII.6.7b | ERF from tropospheric O
3
changes since 1850 (W m
–2
)
Notes:
AR5 results from Chapter 8; see also Sections 11.3.5.1.2, 11.3.6.1. Model mean results from ACCMIP (Stevenson et al., 2013) using a consistent model set (FGKN), which is similar to the all-model
mean. Standard deviation across models shown for 1980s decade is similar for all scenarios except for RCP8.5 at 2100, which is twice as large.
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 A1B B1 IS92a
AR5
Historical
1850 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.06
1990 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.60
2000 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.31 1.87
2010 1.81 1.81 1.78 1.84 1.74 1.65 1.73 1.63 2.25
2020 2.25 2.25 2.15 2.32 2.04 2.16 2.15 2.00
2030 2.52 2.67 2.52 2.91 2.56 2.84 2.56 2.40
2040 2.65 3.07 2.82 3.61 3.22 3.61 2.93 2.82
2050 2.64 3.42 3.20 4.37 3.89 4.16 3.30 3.25
2060 2.55 3.67 3.58 5.13 4.71 4.79 3.65 3.76
2070 2.47 3.84 4.11 5.89 5.56 5.28 3.92 4.24
2080 2.41 3.90 4.60 6.60 6.40 5.62 4.09 4.74
2090 2.35 3.91 4.93 7.32 7.22 5.86 4.18 5.26
2100 2.30 3.94 5.15 7.97 8.07 6.05 4.19 5.79
Table AII.6.8: Total anthropogenic ERF from published RCPs and SRES (W m
–2
)
Notes:
Derived from RCP published CO
2
-eq concentrations that aggregate all anthropogenic forcings including greenhouse gases plus aerosols. These results may not be directly comparable to ERF values
used in AR5 because of how aerosol indirect effects are included, but results are similar to those derived using ERF in Chapter 12 (see Figure 12.4). Comparisons with the TAR Appendix II (SRES A2
and B1) may not be equivalent because those total RF values (TAR II.3.11) were made using the TAR Chapter 9 Simple Model, not always consistent with the individual components in that appendix
(TAR II.3.1 to 9). See Chapter 1, Sections 11.3.6.1, 12.3.1.3 and 12.3.1.4, Figures 1.15 and 12.3. For AR5 Historical, see Table AII.1.2 and Chapter 8.
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Table AII.6.9: ERF components relative to 1850 (W m
–2
) derived from ACCMIP
Year WMGHG Ozone Aerosol ERF Net
1930 0.58 ± 0.04 0.09 ± 0.03 –0.24 ± 0.06 0.44 ± 0.07
1980 1.56 ± 0.10 0.30 ± 0.10 –0.90 ± 0.22 1.00 ± 0.26
2000 2.30 ± 0.14 0.33 ± 0.11 –1.17 ± 0.28 1.51 ± 0.33
2030 RCP8.5 3.64 ± 0.22 0.43 ± 0.12 –0.91 ± 0.22 3.20 ± 0.33
2100 RCP2.6 2.83 ± 0.17 0.14 ± 0.07 –0.12 ± 0.06* 2.86 ± 0.19
2100 RCP4.5 4.33 ± 0.26 0.23 ± 0.09 –0.12 ± 0.06* 4.44 ± 0.28
2100 RCP6.0 5.60 ± 0.34 0.25 ± 0.05 –0.12 ± 0.06* 5.74 ± 0.35
2100 RCP8.5 8.27 ± 0.50 0.55 ± 0.18 –0.12 ± 0.03 8.71 ± 0.53
Notes:
Radiative forcing and adjusted forcing from the ACCMIP results (Shindell et al., 2013) are given for all well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG), ozone, aerosols, and the net. Original 90% confidence
intervals have been reduced to 68% confidence to compare with the CMIP5 model standard deviations in Table AII.6.10. Some uncertainty ranges (*) are estimated from the 2100 RCP8.5 results
(see Chapter 12). See Sections 11.3.5.1.3 and 11.3.6.1, Figure 12.4.
Year SRES A1B RCP2.6
&
RCP4.5
&
RCP6.0
&
RCP8.5
&
1850s
H
–0.19 ± 0.19 –0.12 ± 0.07
1986–2005
H
1.51 ± 0.44 1.34 ± 0.50
1986–2005 1.51 ± 0.44 1.31 ± 0.47 1.30 ± 0.48 1.29 ± 0.51 1.30 ± 0.47
2010
d
2.18 ± 0.53 1.97 ± 0.50 1.91 ± 0.53 1.90 ± 0.54 1.96 ± 0.53
2020
d
2.58 ± 0.57 2.33 ± 0.47 2.27 ± 0.51 2.16 ± 0.55 2.43 ± 0.52
2030
d
3.15 ± 0.60 2.50 ± 0.51 2.61 ± 0.54 2.41 ± 0.60 2.92 ± 0.57
2040
d
3.77 ± 0.72 2.64 ± 0.47 2.98 ± 0.55 2.72 ± 0.58 3.52 ± 0.60
2050
d
4.32 ± 0.73 2.65 ± 0.47 3.25 ± 0.56 3.07 ± 0.61 4.21 ± 0.63
2060
d
4.86 ± 0.74 2.57 ± 0.50 3.50 ± 0.59 3.40 ± 0.60 4.97 ± 0.68
2070
d
5.32 ± 0.79 2.51 ± 0.50 3.65 ± 0.58 3.90 ± 0.65 5.70 ± 0.76
2080
d
5.71 ± 0.81 2.40 ± 0.46 3.71 ± 0.55 4.27 ± 0.69 6.31 ± 0.81
2090
d
6.00 ± 0.83 2.44 ± 0.49 3.78 ± 0.58 4.64 ± 0.71 7.13 ± 0.89
2081–2100 5.99 ± 0.78 2.40 ± 0.46 3.73 ± 0.56 4.56 ± 0.70 7.02 ± 0.92
Table AII.6.10 | Total anthropogenic plus natural ERF (W m
–2
) from CMIP5 and CMIP3, including historical
Notes:
CMIP5 historical and RCP results (Forster et al., 2013) are shown with CMIP3 SRES A1B results (Forster and Taylor, 2006). The alternative results for 1986–2005 with CMIP5 are derived from: all
models contributing historical experiments (1986–2005
H
), and the subsets of models contributing to each RCP experiment (next line, 1986–2005). For SRES A1B the same set of models is used from
1850 to 2100. Values are 10-year averages (2090
d
= 2086–2095) and show multi-model means and standard deviations. See Chapter 12, Section 12.3 and discussion of Figure 12.4, also Sections
8.1, 9.3.2.2, 11.3.6.1 and 11.3.6.3. Due to lack of reporting, for RCP8.5 the 2081–2100 result contains one fewer model than the 2090d decade, and for A1B the 1850s result has just 5 models and
the 2081–2100 result has 3 fewer models than the 2090
d
decade.
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AII.7: Environmental Data
Table AII.7.1 | Global mean surface O
3
change (ppb)
HTAP SRES
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 CLE MFR
2000 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 28.7 28.7
2010 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.6
2020 –0.3 –0.2 –0.2 0.6 2.8 1.1
2030 –1.1 –0.1 –0.3 1.0 4.4 1.3 0.7 ± 1.4 –2.3 ± 1.1
2040 –1.5 –0.3 –0.3 1.2 5.3 1.3
2050 –1.9 –0.8 –0.4 1.5 6.2 0.8
2060 –2.4 –1.3 –0.5 1.8 7.1 0.2
2070 –3.0 –1.9 –1.0 1.9 8.0 –0.5
2080 –3.5 –2.5 –1.5 1.9 9.2 –1.1
2090 –3.8 –2.8 –2.1 1.9 10.6 –1.7
2100 –4.2 –3.0 –2.8 1.9 11.9 –2.5
Notes:
HTAP results are from Wild et al. (2012) and use the published O
3
sensitivities to regional emissions from the HTAP multi-model study (HTAP 2010) and scale those O
3
changes to the RCP emission
scenarios. The ±1 standard deviation (68% confidence interval) over the range of 14 parametric models is shown for year 2000 and is similar for all years. Results from the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios
are from the TAR OxComp studies diagnosed by Wild (Prather et al., 2001; 2003). CLE and MFR results (Dentener et al., 2005; 2006) include uncertainty (standard deviation of model results) in the
change since year 2000, and CLE alone includes climate effects. The CMIP5 and ACCMIP results are from V. Naik and A. Fiore based on Fiore et al. (2012) and include the standard deviation over
the models in year 2000, which is similar for following years. This does not necessarily reflect the uncertainty in the projected change, which may be smaller, see Fiore et al. (2012). The difference in
year 2000 between CMIP5 (4 models) and ACCMIP (12 models) reflect different model biases. Even though ACCMIP only has three decades (2000, 2030, 2100), the greater number of models (5 to
11 depending on time slice and scenario) makes this a more robust estimate. See Chapter 11, ES, Section 11.3.5.2.2.
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 30.0 ± 4.2 30.0 ± 4.2 30.0 ± 4.2 30.0 ± 4.2 28.1 ± 3.1 28.1 ± 3.2 28.1± 3.1 28.1 ± 3.1
2010 –0.4 –0.2 –0.6 –0.1
2020 –0.9 –0.3 –0.9 0.7
2030 –1.8 –0.2 –1.1 1.5 –1.4 0.3 –0.6 1.7
2040 –2.3 –0.3 –1.2 2.0
2050 –2.9 –0.9 –1.5 2.5
2060 –4.0 –1.7 –1.9 2.9
2070 –5.4 –2.8 –2.8 3.1
2080 –6.4 –3.7 –3.9 3.0
2090 –6.9 –4.1 –4.8 2.8
2100 –7.2 –4.3 –5.6 2.7 –6.3 –3.5 –4.9 3.4
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Table AII.7.2 | Surface O
3
change (ppb) for HTAP regions
North America
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2
2010 –0.8 –1.1 –0.1 –1.5 1.5 0.4
2020 –1.9 –2.3 –0.9 –1.4 3.6 0.5
2030 –3.7 –2.7 –1.5 –1.1 5.3 –0.1
2040 –4.6 –3.2 –1.9 –1.1 6.2 –0.8
2050 –5.6 –3.9 –2.4 –0.9 6.9 –1.9
2060 –6.5 –4.6 –3.0 –0.7 7.9 –2.9
2070 –7.5 –5.3 –4.0 –0.7 8.8 –3.8
2080 –8.2 –6.1 –4.9 –0.7 10.3 –4.5
2090 –8.5 –6.4 –5.7 –0.8 12.2 –5.2
2100 –8.9 –6.6 –6.7 –0.9 13.9 –6.1
Europe
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7
2010 –0.5 –0.3 –0.1 –0.7 1.5 0.3
2020 –1.4 –1.3 –0.7 –0.2 3.7 0.6
2030 –3.0 –1.4 –1.1 0.1 5.7 0.2
2040 –3.8 –1.9 –1.5 0.1 6.7 –0.3
2050 –4.6 –2.7 –2.0 0.3 7.7 –1.2
2060 –5.6 –3.5 –2.6 0.4 8.8 –2.1
2070 –6.6 –4.3 –3.3 0.4 9.8 –3.0
2080 –7.5 –5.1 –4.2 0.2 11.3 –3.8
2090 –8.0 –5.6 –5.2 –0.1 13.4 –4.6
2100 –8.5 –6.0 –6.4 –0.2 15.1 –5.6
South Asia
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4
2010 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.4 2.7 1.8
2020 1.6 2.2 0.0 3.9 6.1 3.3
2030 0.5 3.4 –0.6 5.0 8.9 3.9
2040 0.3 3.5 –0.1 5.5 10.4 4.1
2050 0.2 2.9 0.0 5.2 11.7 2.9
2060 –0.1 1.1 0.4 5.1 12.7 1.5
2070 –1.0 –1.2 –0.2 4.9 13.6 –0.1
2080 –2.6 –3.9 –1.7 4.9 14.5 –1.5
2090 –4.4 –5.0 –3.0 4.1 15.1 –3.0
2100 –6.8 –6.0 –4.7 4.0 15.0 –4.6
(continued on next page)
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Table AII.7.2 | (continued)
East Asia
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1
2000 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7
2010 1.0 0.6 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.1
2020 0.5 0.6 0.4 2.5 4.6 1.9
2030 –1.4 0.2 0.6 2.8 6.8 2.1
2040 –2.7 –0.8 1.4 1.8 8.0 2.0
2050 –3.8 –2.5 1.4 1.4 9.1 0.9
2060 –4.8 –3.6 0.9 1.4 10.2 –0.3
2070 –6.0 –4.6 –0.7 1.2 11.2 –1.4
2080 –6.9 –5.5 –2.2 1.0 12.5 –2.4
2090 –7.4 –5.8 –3.5 0.7 13.9 –3.4
2100 –8.0 –6.0 –4.9 0.5 14.9 –4.6
Notes:
HTAP results from Wild et al. (2012); see Table AII.7.1.
Table AII.7.3 | Surface O
3
change (ppb) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions
Africa
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 33.8 ± 4.3 33.8 ± 4.3 33.8 ± 4.3 33.8 ± 4.3 33.1 ± 4.1 33.1 ± 4.1 33.1 ± 4.1 33.1 ± 4.1
2010 –0.7 –0.1 –1.2 –0.2
2020 –1.0 0.2 –1.5 0.9
2030 –1.9 0.5 –1.8 1.7 –1.4 0.9 –1.3 2.4
2040 –2.0 0.6 –1.8 2.6
2050 –2.3 0.2 –2.0 3.2
2060 –2.6 –0.3 –2.2 3.7
2070 –3.2 –1.2 –2.8 4.0
2080 –3.6 –2.3 –3.7 4.1
2090 –4.1 –3.0 –4.5 4.1
2100 –4.8 –3.3 –5.2 4.1 –4.9 –2.9 –4.9 5.0
Australia
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 23.3 ± 4.6 23.3 ± 4.6 23.3 ± 4.6 23.3 ± 4.6 23.7 ± 3.5 23.7 ± 3.5 23.7 ± 3.5 23.7 ± 3.5
2010 –1.3 –1.1 –0.8 –0.9
2020 –1.7 –1.4 –1.0 –0.6
2030 –2.3 –1.3 –1.4 0.0 –1.8 –0.4 –1.4 0.9
2040 –2.6 –1.2 –1.7 0.5
2050 –3.0 –1.5 –1.9 0.9
2060 –3.7 –1.9 –2.0 1.5
2070 –4.4 –2.4 –2.5 1.8
2080 –5.0 –2.9 –3.1 1.9
2090 –5.0 –3.1 –3.5 1.9
2100 –5.2 –3.2 –4.0 2.0 –4.3 –2.5 –4.0 3.1
(continued on next page)
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Table AII.7.3 | (continued)
Central Eurasia
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 38.7 ± 5.3 38.7 ± 5.3 38.7 ± 5.3 38.7 ± 5.3 32.5 ± 6.2 32.5 ± 6.2 32.5 ± 6.2 32.5 ± 6.2
2010 –0.6 –0.6 –0.6 –0.5
2020 –1.6 –1.2 –1.2 0.5
2030 –3.2 –1.3 –1.4 1.4 –1.9 –0.1 –0.3 1.8
2040 –4.5 –1.9 –1.7 1.6
2050 –5.7 –2.9 –2.2 1.8
2060 –7.2 –4.2 –3.0 2.8
2070 –9.1 –5.4 –4.3 3.0
2080 –10.6 –6.5 –6.0 2.9
2090 –11.2 –6.8 –7.2 2.6
2100 –11.5 –7.0 –8.1 2.6 –8.5 –3.8 –5.6 4.3
Europe
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 40.4 ± 6.0 40.4 ± 6.0 40.4 ± 6.0 40.4 ± 6.0 33.6 ± 5.2 33.6 ± 5.2 33.6 ± 5.2 33.6 ± 5.2
2010 –0.4 –0.5 –0.5 –0.4
2020 –1.5 –1.3 –1.2 0.3
2030 –3.2 –1.7 –1.7 1.1 –1.6 0.6 –0.4 2.3
2040 –4.6 –2.4 –2.3 1.4
2050 –6.1 –3.5 –3.0 1.8
2060 –8.0 –4.9 –4.1 2.4
2070 –10.4 –6.3 –5.8 2.6
2080 –12.2 –7.6 –7.6 2.3
2090 –13.0 –8.0 –9.2 2.1
2100 –13.4 –8.1 –10.3 2.0 –9.4 –3.5 –7.2 4.9
East Asia
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 46.3 ± 4.9 46.3 ± 4.9 46.3 ± 4.9 46.3 ± 4.9 41.0 ± 5.5 41.0 ± 5.5 41.0 ± 5.5 41.0 ± 5.5
2010 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.1
2020 –0.1 0.8 –0.1 2.7
2030 –2.3 0.5 0.4 3.8 –1.8 1.0 0.4 3.2
2040 –3.9 –0.9 1.1 3.8
2050 –5.8 –3.3 1.0 3.7
2060 –8.0 –5.4 0.2 3.9
2070 –10.2 –7.3 –1.6 3.6
2080 –12.1 –8.8 –4.0 3.3
2090 –13.2 –9.4 –6.3 2.9
2100 –13.9 –9.6 –8.0 2.8 –11.4 –5.9 –6.6 4.6
(continued on next page)
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Table AII.7.3 | (continued)
Middle East
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 45.9 ± 3.1 45.9 ± 3.1 45.9 ± 3.1 45.9 ± 3.1 45.7 ± 5.4 45.7 ± 5.4 45.7 ± 5.4 45.7 ± 5.4
2010 –0.4 0.5 –0.7 0.5
2020 –1.5 0.4 –1.4 2.5
2030 –3.3 0.6 –1.6 3.8 –2.8 0.9 –1.1 4.1
2040 –3.6 0.2 –2.0 4.4
2050 –4.6 –0.9 –2.6 4.7
2060 –6.0 –2.7 –3.5 5.2
2070 –8.1 –4.9 –4.2 5.1
2080 –9.9 –7.1 –5.9 5.1
2090 –11.3 –8.4 –8.2 4.8
2100 –12.4 –9.0 –9.9 4.6 –11.7 –7.5 –9.8 5.0
North America
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 40.7 ± 5.1 40.7 ± 5.1 40.7 ± 5.1 40.7 ± 5.1 34.3 ± 5.5 34.3 ± 5.5 34.3 ± 5.5 34.3 ± 5.5
2010 –0.9 –1.2 –0.6 –1.0
2020 –2.1 –2.4 –1.4 –0.5
2030 –4.3 –2.8 –1.8 0.1 –2.5 –0.7 –0.8 1.3
2040 –5.7 –3.6 –2.5 0.3
2050 –7.2 –4.6 –3.1 0.6
2060 –9.1 –5.8 –4.4 1.0
2070 –11.4 –7.1 –6.2 1.2
2080 –13.2 –8.3 –8.1 1.2
2090 –13.8 –8.5 –9.6 1.0
2100 –14.1 –8.8 –10.9 0.9 –10.5 –4.7 –8.7 3.4
South America
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 25.3 ± 4.2 25.3 ± 4.2 25.3 ± 4.2 25.3 ± 4.2 23.7 ± 3.9 23.7 ± 3.9 23.7 ± 3.9 23.7 ± 3.9
2010 –1.4 –0.6 –1.2 –0.3
2020 –2.1 –1.2 –1.8 0.3
2030 –2.9 –1.2 –2.1 0.6 –2.3 –0.6 –1.8 1.2
2040 –2.9 –1.3 –2.3 1.1
2050 –3.2 –1.7 –2.6 1.3
2060 –3.6 –2.5 –2.9 1.5
2070 –4.3 –3.6 –3.5 1.5
2080 –5.1 –4.5 –4.2 1.1
2090 –5.5 –5.0 –4.7 0.7
2100 –5.7 –5.2 –5.3 0.4 –5.0 –4.0 –5.2 2.0
(continued on next page)
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Table AII.7.3 | (continued)
South Asia
CMIP5 ACCMIP
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 34.4 ± 3.9 34.4 ± 3.9 34.4 ± 3.9 34.4 ± 3.9 33.7 ± 4.6 33.7 ± 4.6 33.7 ± 4.6 33.7 ± 4.6
2010 1.3 0.9 –0.1 1.3
2020 1.4 1.6 –0.2 3.1
2030 0.7 2.7 –0.1 3.9 0.6 2.3 –0.4 4.6
2040 0.6 2.8 0.3 4.0
2050 0.4 1.6 0.4 3.6
2060 –0.5 –0.7 0.3 3.2
2070 –2.0 –3.2 –0.5 2.9
2080 –3.9 –5.7 –2.0 2.7
2090 –5.7 –6.7 –3.3 2.2
2100 –7.1 –7.3 –4.5 1.9 –7.2 –6.1 –4.5 3.6
(continued on next page)
Notes:
See notes for Table AII.7.1. For definition of regions, see Figure 11.23 and Fiore et al. (2012).
Table AII.7.4 | Surface particulate matter change (log
10
[PM
2.5
(microgram/m
3
)]) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions
Africa
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 1.17 ± 0.23
2030 0.00 0.04 –0.01 0.01
2050 –0.02 –0.02 0.01
2100 0.00 –0.01 –0.03 –0.02
Australia
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 0.65 ± 0.32
2030 –0.04 0.03 –0.01 0.01
2050 –0.06 –0.02 –0.04
2100 0.00 0.00 –0.03 –0.01
Central Eurasia
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 0.59 ± 0.17
2030 –0.07 –0.01 –0.05 –0.06
2050 –0.12 –0.08 –0.09
2100 –0.13 –0.11 –0.11 –0.12
Europe
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 0.81 ± 0.09
2030 –0.20 –0.10 –0.13 –0.24
2050 –0.31 –0.25 –0.33
2100 –0.32 –0.28 –0.37 –0.38
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Table AII.7.4 | (continued)
East Asia
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 1.04 ± 0.16
2030 –0.04 –0.02 0.01 0.01
2050 –0.24 0.07 –0.17
2100 –0.31 –0.33 –0.21 –0.30
Middle East
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 1.10 ± 0.27
2030 –0.06 –0.02 –0.05 –0.03
2050 –0.08 –0.06 –0.03
2100 –0.11 –0.11 –0.10 –0.12
North America
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 0.51 ± 0.15
2030 –0.16 –0.10 –0.10 –0.15
2050 –0.20 –0.16 –0.17
2100 –0.20 –0.19 –0.24 –0.21
South America
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 0.71 ± 0.11
2030 –0.05 –0.04 –0.04 –0.03
2050 –0.10 –0.05 –0.07
2100 –0.11 –0.11 –0.09 –0.12
South Asia
Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2000 1.02 ± 0.11
2030 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.05
2050 –0.05 0.07 0.00
2100 –0.16 –0.24 –0.06 –0.11
Notes:
Decadal average of the log
10
[PM
2.5
] values are given only where results include at least four models from either ACCMIP or CMIP5. Results are from A. Fiore and V. Naik based on Fiore et al. (2012)
using the CMIP5/ACCMIP archive. Due to the very large systematic spread across models, the statistics were calculated for the log values, but Figure 11.23 shows statistics for direct PM
2.5
values.
Owing to the large spatial variations no global average is given. Model mean and standard deviation are shown for year 2000; differences in log
10
[PM
2.5
] are shown for 2030, 2050 and 2100. See
notes for Table AII.7.3 and Figure 11.23 for regions; see also Chapter 11, ES.
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Table AII.7.5 | CMIP5 (RCP) and CMIP3 (SRES A1B) global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative to 1986–2005 reference period. Results here are a statistical sum-
mary of the spread in the CMIP ensembles for each of the scenarios. They do not account for model biases and model dependencies, and the percentiles do not correspond to the
assessed uncertainty in Chapters 11 (11.3.6.3) and 12 (12.4.1). The statistical spread across models cannot be interpreted as uncertainty ranges or in terms of calibrated language
(Section 12.2).
RCP2.6 RCP4.5
Years 5% 17% 50% 83% 95% 5% 17% 50% 83% 95%
1850–1990 –0.61 –0.61
1986–2005 0.00 0.00
2010d 0.19 0.33 0.36 0.52 0.62 0.22 0.26 0.36 0.48 0.59
2020
d
0.36 0.45 0.55 0.81 1.07 0.39 0.48 0.59 0.74 0.83
2030
d
0.47 0.56 0.74 1.02 1.24 0.56 0.69 0.82 1.10 1.22
2040
d
0.51 0.68 0.88 1.25 1.50 0.64 0.86 1.04 1.35 1.57
2050
d
0.49 0.71 0.94 1.37 1.65 0.84 1.05 1.24 1.63 1.97
2060
d
0.36 0.69 0.93 1.48 1.71 0.90 1.13 1.44 1.90 2.19
2070
d
0.20 0.70 0.89 1.49 1.71 0.98 1.20 1.54 2.07 2.32
2080
d
0.15 0.62 0.94 1.44 1.79 0.98 1.27 1.62 2.25 2.54
2090
d
0.18 0.58 0.94 1.53 1.79 1.06 1.33 1.68 2.29 2.59
RCP6.0 RCP8.5
Years 5% 17% 50% 83% 95% 5% 17% 50% 83% 95%
1850–1990 –0.61 –0.61
1986–2005 0.00 0.00
2010
d
0.21 0.26 0.36 0.47 0.64 0.23 0.29 0.37 0.47 0.62
2020
d
0.33 0.40 0.55 0.70 0.90 0.37 0.51 0.66 0.84 0.99
2030
d
0.40 0.59 0.74 0.92 1.17 0.65 0.77 0.94 1.29 1.39
2040
d
0.59 0.73 0.95 1.21 1.41 0.93 1.13 1.29 1.68 1.77
2050
d
0.69 0.92 1.15 1.52 1.81 1.20 1.48 1.70 2.19 2.37
2060
d
0.88 1.08 1.32 1.78 2.18 1.55 1.88 2.16 2.74 2.99
2070
d
1.08 1.28 1.58 2.14 2.52 1.96 2.25 2.60 3.31 3.61
2080
d
1.33 1.56 1.81 2.58 2.88 2.31 2.65 3.05 3.93 4.22
2090
d
1.51 1.72 2.03 2.92 3.24 2.63 2.96 3.57 4.45 4.81
SRES A1B
Years 5% 17% 50% 83% 95%
1850–1990 –0.61
1986–2005 0.00
2010
d
0.15 0.22 0.34 0.44 0.62
2020
d
0.27 0.37 0.52 0.76 0.91
2030
d
0.47 0.59 0.82 1.04 1.38
2040
d
0.65 0.90 1.11 1.36 1.79
2050
d
0.92 1.14 1.55 1.65 2.14
2060
d
1.12 1.40 1.75 1.98 2.67
2070
d
1.40 1.60 2.14 2.39 3.12
2080
d
1.61 1.80 2.30 2.75 3.47
2090
d
1.76 1.96 2.54 3.05 3.84
Notes:
This spread in the model ensembles (as shown in Figures 11.26a and 12.5, and discussed in Section 11.3.6) is not a measure of uncertainty. For the AR5 assessment of global mean surface
temperature changes and uncertainties see: Section 11.3.6.3 and Figure 11.25 for the near-term (2016–2035) temperatures; and Section 12.4.1 and Tables 12.2–3 for the long term (2081–2100).
See discussion about uncertainty and ensembles in Section 12.2, which explains how model spread is not equivalent to uncertainty. Results here are shown for the CMIP5 archive (Annex I, frozen
as of March 15, 2013) for the RCPs and the similarly current CMIP3 archive for SRES A1B, which is not the same set of models used in AR4 (Figure SPM.5). Ten-year averages are shown (2030
d
=
2026–2035). Temperature changes are relative to the reference period (1986–2005, defined as zero in this table), using CMIP5 for all four RCPs (G. J. van Oldenborgh, http://climexp.knmi.nl/
t
; see
Annex I for listing of models included) and CMIP3 for SRES A1B (22 models). The warming from early instrumental record (1850–1900) to the modern reference period (1986–2005) is derived from
HadCRUT4 observations as 0.61°C (C. Morice; see Chapter 2 and Table AII.1.3).
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Table AII.7.7 | Global mean sea level rise (m) with respect to 1986–2005 at 1 January on the years indicated. Values shown as median and likely range; see Section 13.5.1.
Year SRES A1B RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
2007 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04]
2010 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05]
2020 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.11]
2030 0.12 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.13 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.13 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.12 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.13 [0.10 to 0.17]
2040 0.17 [0.13 to 0.22] 0.17 [0.13 to 0.22] 0.17 [0.13 to 0.22] 0.17 [0.12 to 0.21] 0.19 [0.14 to 0.24]
2050 0.23 [0.17 to 0.30] 0.22 [0.16 to 0.28] 0.23 [0.17 to 0.29] 0.22 [0.16 to 0.28] 0.25 [0.19 to 0.32]
2060 0.30 [0.21 to 0.38] 0.26 [0.18 to 0.35] 0.28 [0.21 to 0.37] 0.27 [0.19 to 0.35] 0.33 [0.24 to 0.42]
2070 0.37 [0.26 to 0.48] 0.31 [0.21 to 0.41] 0.35 [0.25 to 0.45] 0.33 [0.24 to 0.43] 0.42 [0.31 to 0.54]
2080 0.44 [0.31 to 0.58] 0.35 [0.24 to 0.48] 0.41 [0.28 to 0.54] 0.40 [0.28 to 0.53] 0.51 [0.37 to 0.67]
2090 0.52 [0.36 to 0.69] 0.40 [0.26 to 0.54] 0.47 [0.32 to 0.62] 0.47 [0.33 to 0.63] 0.62 [0.45 to 0.81]
2100 0.60 [0.42 to 0.80] 0.44 [0.28 to 0.61] 0.53 [0.36 to 0.71] 0.55 [0.38 to 0.73] 0.74 [0.53 to 0.98]
Years A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a A1B
PI* –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33
1990 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2000 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.16
2010 0.30 0.40 0.32 0.35 0.34 0.39 0.27 0.30
2020 0.52 0.71 0.55 0.50 0.55 0.66 0.43 0.52
2030 0.85 1.03 0.85 0.73 0.77 0.93 0.61 0.85
2040 1.26 1.41 1.27 1.06 0.98 1.18 0.80 1.26
2050 1.59 1.75 1.86 1.42 1.21 1.44 1.00 1.59
2060 1.97 2.04 2.50 1.85 1.44 1.69 1.26 1.97
2070 2.30 2.25 3.10 2.33 1.63 1.94 1.52 2.30
2080 2.56 2.41 3.64 2.81 1.79 2.20 1.79 2.56
2090 2.77 2.49 4.09 3.29 1.91 2.44 2.08 2.77
2100 2.95 2.54 4.49 3.79 1.98 2.69 2.38 2.95
Table AII.7.6 | Global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative to 1990 from the TAR
Notes:
Single-year estimates of mean surface air temperature warming relative to the reference period 1990 for the SRES scenarios evaluated in the TAR. The pre-industrial estimates are for 1750, and all
results are based on a simple climate model. See TAR Appendix II.
