Annexes
115
ANNEX
I
User Guide
116
I
Annex I User Guide
User Guide
As defined in the IPCC Procedures, the Synthesis Report (SYR) synthesises and integrates material contained within IPCC Assessment Reports and
Special Reports. The scope of the SYR of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) includes material contained in the three Working Group contributions
to the AR5, and it draws on information contained in other IPCC Reports as required. The SYR is based exclusively on assessments by the IPCC
Working Groups; it does not refer to or assess the primary scientific literature itself.
The SYR is a self-contained, condensed summary of the much richer information contained in the underlying Working Group Reports. Users may
wish to access relevant material at the required level of detail in the following manner: the report contains a Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
that provides the most condensed summary of the current understanding of scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change.
All references in curly brackets in this SPM refer to sections in the longer report. The longer report consists of an Introduction and four Topics. The
numbers of the SPM sections largely correspond with the section numbers of the Topics. At the end of each paragraph, references are provided in
italics between curly brackets. These refer to the Summaries for Policymakers (SPMs), Technical Summaries (TSs), Executive Summaries of chapters
(ESs) and chapters (with chapter and section numbers) of the underlying Working Group contributions to the AR5 and Special Reports of the AR5.
References to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 are identified by adding “AR4” to the reference.
Users who wish to gain a better understanding of scientific details or access the primary scientific literature on which the SYR is based should
refer to chapter sections of the underlying Working Group reports that are cited in the longer report of the SYR. The individual chapters of the
Working Group reports provide references to the primary scientific literature on which IPCC assessments are based, and also offer the most
detailed region- and sector-specific information.
A glossary, a list of acronyms, lists of authors and reviewers, a list of IPCC publications (annexes) and an index are provided to further facilitate
the use of this report.
117
Glossary
Glossary Editors
Katharine J. Mach (USA), Serge Planton (France), Christoph von Stechow (Germany)
Glossary Contributors
Myles R. Allen (United Kingdom), John Broome (United Kingdom), John A. Church (Australia),
Leon Clarke (USA), Piers Forster (United Kingdom), Pierre Friedlingstein (United Kingdom/Belgium),
Jan Fuglestvedt (Norway), Gabriele Hegerl (United Kingdom/Germany), Blanca Jiménez
Cisneros (Mexico/UNESCO), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Howard Kunreuther (USA),
Leo Meyer (The Netherlands), Jan Minx (Germany), Yacob Mulugetta (Ethiopia), Karen O’Brien
(Norway), Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Gian-Kasper Plattner (Switzerland), Andy Reisinger
(New Zealand), Robert Scholes (South Africa), Melinda Tignor (Switzerland/USA), Detlef van
Vuuren (The Netherlands)
TSU Facilitation
Noëmie Leprince-Ringuet (France)
This annex should be cited as:
IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Cli-
mate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing
Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
ANNEX
II
118
II
Annex II Glossary
Abrupt change/abrupt climate change
Abrupt change refers to a change that is substantially faster than the
rate of change in the recent history of the affected components of a
system. Abrupt climate change refers to a large-scale change in the
climate system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or
is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades and causes substan-
tial disruptions in human and natural systems. {WGI, II, III}
Adaptation
The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects.
In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or
exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human inter-
vention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects
1
.
{WGII, III}
Adaptation deficit
The gap between the current state of a system and a state that mini-
mizes adverse impacts from existing climate conditions and variability.
{WGII}
Adaptation limit
The point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be
secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions. {WGII}
Hard adaptation limit
No adaptive actions are possible to avoid intolerable risks.
Soft adaptation limit
Options are currently not available to avoid intolerable risks
through adaptive action.
Adaptive capacity
The ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to
adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to
respond to consequences
2
. {WGII, III}
Adverse side effects
The negative effects that a policy or measure aimed at one objec-
tive might have on other objectives, irrespective of the net effect
on overall social welfare. Adverse side effects are often subject to
uncertainty and depend on local circumstances and implementa-
tion practices, among other factors. See also Co-benefits and Risk.
{WGIII}
Afforestation
Planting of new forests on lands that historically have not contained
forests. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as
afforestation, reforestation and deforestation, see the IPCC Special
Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (IPCC, 2000b).
See also information provided by the United Nations Framework Con-
vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2013) and the report on Defini-
tions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct
Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other
Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003). {WGI, III}
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU and FOLU/
LULUCF)
AFOLU plays a central role for food security and sustainable devel-
opment. The main mitigation options within AFOLU involve one or
more of three strategies: prevention of emissions to the atmosphere by
conserving existing carbon pools in soils or vegetation or by reducing
emissions of methane and nitrous oxide; sequestration—increasing
the size of existing carbon pools and thereby extracting carbon dioxide
(CO
2
) from the atmosphere; and substitution—substituting biological
products for fossil fuels or energy-intensive products, thereby reduc-
ing CO
2
emissions. Demand-side measures (e.g., reducing losses and
wastes of food, changes in human diet, or changes in wood consump-
tion) may also play a role.
FOLU (Forestry and Other Land Use)—also referred to as LULUCF
(Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry)—is the subset of AFOLU
emissions and removals of greenhouse gases (GHGs) resulting from
direct human-induced land use, land-use change, and forestry activi-
ties excluding agricultural emissions. {WGIII}
Albedo
The fraction of solar radiation reflected by a surface or object, often
expressed as a percentage. Snow-covered surfaces have a high albedo,
the albedo of soils ranges from high to low and vegetation-covered
surfaces and oceans have a low albedo. The Earth’s planetary albedo
varies mainly through varying cloudiness, snow, ice, leaf area and land
cover changes. {WGI, III}
Altimetry
A technique for measuring the height of the Earth’s surface with
respect to the geocentre of the Earth within a defined terrestrial refer-
ence frame (geocentric sea level). {WGI}
Ancillary benefits
See Co-benefits. {WGII, III}
Attribution
See Detection and attribution. {WGI, II}.
Baseline/reference
The baseline (or reference) is the state against which change is meas-
ured. A baseline period is the period relative to which anomalies are
computed. In the context of transformation pathways, the term baseline
This glossary defines some specific terms as the Core Writing
Team of the Synthesis Report intends them to be interpreted
in the context of this report. Red, italicized words indicate
that the term is defined in the glossary. The references to
Working Groups (WG) I, II and III in italics at the end of each
term in this glossary refer to the AR5 WG glossaries and
should be read as: WGI (IPCC, 2013a), WGII (IPCC, 2014a),
and WGIII (IPCC, 2014b).
1
Reflecting progress in science, this glossary entry differs in breadth and focus from the entry used in the Fourth Assessment Report and other IPCC reports.
2
This glossary entry builds from definitions used in previous IPCC reports and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005).
119
II
Glossary Annex II
scenarios refers to scenarios that are based on the assumption that no
mitigation policies or measures will be implemented beyond those that
are already in force and/or are legislated or planned to be adopted.
Baseline scenarios are not intended to be predictions of the future,
but rather counterfactual constructions that can serve to highlight the
level of emissions that would occur without further policy effort. Typ-
ically, baseline scenarios are then compared to mitigation scenarios
that are constructed to meet different goals for greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, atmospheric concentrations or temperature change. The
term baseline scenario is used interchangeably with reference scenario
and no policy scenario. In much of the literature the term is also synon-
ymous with the term business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, although the
term BAU has fallen out of favour because the idea of business as
usual in century-long socio-economic projections is hard to fathom.
See also Emission scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs) and SRES scenarios. {WGI, II, III}
Biodiversity
The variability among living organisms from terrestrial, marine and
other ecosystems. Biodiversity includes variability at the genetic, spe-
cies and ecosystem levels
3
. {WGII, III}
Bioenergy and Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (BECCS)
The application of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) technol-
ogy to bioenergy conversion processes. Depending on the total life-
cycle emissions, including total marginal consequential effects (from
indirect land-use change (iLUC) and other processes), BECCS has the
potential for net carbon dioxide (CO
2
) removal from the atmosphere.
See also Sequestration. {WGIII}
Burden sharing/effort sharing
In the context of mitigation, burden sharing refers to sharing the effort
of reducing the sources or enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases
(GHGs) from historical or projected levels, usually allocated by some
criteria, as well as sharing the cost burden across countries. {WGIII}
Cancún Agreements
A set of decisions adopted at the 16th Session of the Conference of the
Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), including the following, among others: the newly
established Green Climate Fund (GCF), a newly established technol-
ogy mechanism, a process for advancing discussions on adaptation, a
formal process for reporting mitigation commitments, a goal of limiting
global mean surface temperature increase to 2°C and an agreement on
MRV—Measurement, Reporting and Verification for those countries
that receive international support for their mitigation efforts. {WGIII}
Cancún Pledges
During 2010, many countries submitted their existing plans for con-
trolling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the Climate Change Sec-
retariat and these proposals have now been formally acknowledged
under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). Developed countries presented their plans in the shape of
economy-wide targets to reduce emissions, mainly up to 2020, while
developing countries proposed ways to limit their growth of emissions
in the shape of plans of action. {WGIII}
Carbon cycle
The term used to describe the flow of carbon (in various forms, e.g., as
carbon dioxide (CO
2
)) through the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial and
marine biosphere and lithosphere. In this report, the reference unit for
the global carbon cycle is GtCO
2
or GtC (Gigatonne of carbon = 1 GtC
= 10
15
grams of carbon. This corresponds to 3.667 GtCO
2
). {WGI, II, III}
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS)
A process in which a relatively pure stream of carbon dioxide (CO
2
)
from industrial and energy-related sources is separated (captured), con-
ditioned, compressed and transported to a storage location for long-
term isolation from the atmosphere. See also Bioenergy and Carbon
Dioxide Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Sequestration. {WGIII}
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
Carbon Dioxide Removal methods refer to a set of techniques that aim
to remove CO
2
directly from the atmosphere by either (1) increasing
natural sinks for carbon or (2) using chemical engineering to remove
the CO
2
, with the intent of reducing the atmospheric CO
2
concentration.
CDR methods involve the ocean, land and technical systems, including
such methods as iron fertilization, large-scale afforestation and direct
capture of CO
2
from the atmosphere using engineered chemical means.
Some CDR methods fall under the category of geoengineering, though
this may not be the case for others, with the distinction being based on
the magnitude, scale and impact of the particular CDR activities. The
boundary between CDR and mitigation is not clear and there could be
some overlap between the two given current definitions (IPCC, 2012b,
p. 2). See also Solar Radiation Management (SRM). {WGI, III}
Carbon intensity
The amount of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO
2
) released per unit of
another variable such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), output energy
use or transport. {WGIII}
Carbon price
The price for avoided or released carbon dioxide (CO
2
) or CO
2
-equivalent
emissions. This may refer to the rate of a carbon tax, or the price of
emission permits. In many models that are used to assess the economic
costs of mitigation, carbon prices are used as a proxy to represent the
level of effort in mitigation policies. {WGIII}
Carbon tax
A levy on the carbon content of fossil fuels. Because virtually all of the
carbon in fossil fuels is ultimately emitted as carbon dioxide (CO
2
), a
carbon tax is equivalent to an emission tax on CO
2
emissions. {WGIII}
Climate
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or
more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and var-
iability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months
to thousands or millions of years. The classical period for averaging these
3
This glossary entry builds from definitions used in the Global Biodiversity Assessment (Heywood, 1995) and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005).
120
II
Annex II Glossary
variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organiza-
tion. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as tem-
perature, precipitation and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state,
including a statistical description, of the climate system. {WGI, II, III}
Climate change
Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can
be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean
and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended
period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to nat-
ural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the
solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes
in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1,
defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed
directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of
the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate varia-
bility observed over comparable time periods’. The UNFCCC thus makes
a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities
altering the atmospheric composition and climate variability attributa-
ble to natural causes. See also Detection and Attribution. {WGI, II, III}
Climate extreme (extreme weather or climate event)
See Extreme weather event. {WGI, II}
Climate feedback
An interaction in which a perturbation in one climate quantity causes
a change in a second and the change in the second quantity ultimately
leads to an additional change in the first. A negative feedback is one in
which the initial perturbation is weakened by the changes it causes; a
positive feedback is one in which the initial perturbation is enhanced.
In the Fifth Assessment Report, a somewhat narrower definition is
often used in which the climate quantity that is perturbed is the global
mean surface temperature, which in turn causes changes in the global
radiation budget. In either case, the initial perturbation can either be
externally forced or arise as part of internal variability. {WGI, II, III}
Climate finance
There is no agreed definition of climate finance. The term climate finance
is applied both to the financial resources devoted to addressing climate
change globally and to financial flows to developing countries to assist
them in addressing climate change. The literature includes several concepts
in these categories, among which the most commonly used include: {WGIII}
Incremental costs
The cost of capital of the incremental investment and the change
of operating and maintenance costs for a mitigation or adaptation
project in comparison to a reference project. It can be calculated as
the difference of the net present values of the two projects.
Incremental investment
The extra capital required for the initial investment for a mitigation
or adaptation project in comparison to a reference project.
Total climate finance
All financial flows whose expected effect is to reduce net green-
house gas (GHG) emissions and/or to enhance resilience to the
impacts of climate variability and the projected climate change. This
covers private and public funds, domestic and international flows
and expenditures for mitigation and adaptation to current climate
variability as well as future climate change.
Total climate finance flowing to developing countries
The amount of the total climate finance invested in developing
countries that comes from developed countries. This covers private
and public funds.
Private climate finance flowing to developing countries
Finance and investment by private actors in/from developed coun-
tries for mitigation and adaptation activities in developing countries.
Public climate finance flowing to developing countries
Finance provided by developed countries’ governments and bilateral
institutions as well as by multilateral institutions for mitigation and
adaptation activities in developing countries. Most of the funds
provided are concessional loans and grants.
Climate model (spectrum or hierarchy)
A numerical representation of the climate system based on the phys-
ical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their inter-
actions and feedback processes and accounting for some of its known
properties. The climate system can be represented by models of varying
complexity; that is, for any one component or combination of compo-
nents a spectrum or hierarchy of models can be identified, differing in
such aspects as the number of spatial dimensions, the extent to which
physical, chemical or biological processes are explicitly represented, or
the level at which empirical parametrizations are involved. Coupled
AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide a
representation of the climate system that is near or at the most com-
prehensive end of the spectrum currently available. There is an evo-
lution towards more complex models with interactive chemistry and
biology. Climate models are applied as a research tool to study and
simulate the climate and for operational purposes, including monthly,
seasonal and interannual climate predictions. {WGI, II, III}
Climate projection
A climate projection is the simulated response of the climate system
to a scenario of future emission or concentration of greenhouse gases
(GHGs) and aerosols, generally derived using climate models. Climate
projections are distinguished from climate predictions by their depend-
ence on the emission/concentration/radiative forcing scenario used,
which is in turn based on assumptions concerning, for example, future
socio-economic and technological developments that may or may not
be realized. {WGI, II, III}
Climate-resilient pathways
Iterative processes for managing change within complex systems in
order to reduce disruptions and enhance opportunities associated with
climate change. {WGII}
Climate response
See Climate sensitivity. {WGI}
Climate sensitivity
In IPCC reports, equilibrium climate sensitivity (units: °C) refers to the
equilibrium (steady state) change in the annual global mean surface
121
II
Glossary Annex II
temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric equivalent carbon
dioxide (CO
2
) concentration. Owing to computational constraints, the
equilibrium climate sensitivity in a climate model is sometimes esti-
mated by running an atmospheric general circulation model coupled
to a mixed-layer ocean model, because equilibrium climate sensitivity
is largely determined by atmospheric processes. Efficient models can
be run to equilibrium with a dynamic ocean. The climate sensitivity
parameter (units: °C (W m
–2
)
–1
) refers to the equilibrium change in the
annual global mean surface temperature following a unit change in
radiative forcing.
The effective climate sensitivity (units: °C) is an estimate of the global
mean surface temperature response to doubled CO
2
concentration
that is evaluated from model output or observations for evolving non-
equilibrium conditions. It is a measure of the strengths of the climate
feedbacks at a particular time and may vary with forcing history and cli-
mate state and therefore may differ from equilibrium climate sensitivity.
The transient climate response (units: °C) is the change in the global
mean surface temperature, averaged over a 20-year period, centered
at the time of atmospheric CO
2
doubling, in a climate model simulation
in which CO
2
increases at 1%/yr. It is a measure of the strength and
rapidity of the surface temperature response to greenhouse gas (GHG)
forcing. {WGI, II, III}
Climate system
The climate system is the highly complex system consisting of five
major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere,
the lithosphere and the biosphere and the interactions between them.
The climate system evolves in time under the influence of its own inter-
nal dynamics and because of external forcings such as volcanic erup-
tions, solar variations and anthropogenic forcings such as the changing
composition of the atmosphere and land-use change. {WGI, II, III}
Climate variability
Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other sta-
tistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of
the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual
weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes
within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in nat-
ural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also
Climate change. {WGI, II, III}
CO
2
-equivalent (CO
2
-eq) concentration
The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO
2
) that would cause the same
radiative forcing as a given mixture of CO
2
and other forcing components.
Those values may consider only greenhouse gases (GHGs), or a com-
bination of GHGs, aerosols and surface albedo change. CO
2
-equivalent
concentration is a metric for comparing radiative forcing of a mix of
different forcing components at a particular time but does not imply
equivalence of the corresponding climate change responses nor future
forcing. There is generally no connection between CO
2
-equivalent
emissions and resulting CO
2
-equivalent concentrations. {WGI, III}
CO
2
-equivalent (CO
2
-eq) emission
The amount of carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emission that would cause the
same integrated radiative forcing, over a given time horizon, as an
emitted amount of a greenhouse gas (GHG) or a mixture of GHGs.
The CO
2
-equivalent emission is obtained by multiplying the emission
of a GHG by its Global Warming Potential (GWP) for the given time
horizon (see WGI Chapter 8, Table 8.A.1 and WGIII Annex II.9.1 for
GWP values of the different GHGs used here). For a mix of GHGs it
is obtained by summing the CO
2
-equivalent emissions of each gas.
CO
2
-equivalent emission is a common scale for comparing emissions
of different GHGs but does not imply equivalence of the corresponding
climate change responses. There is generally no connection between
CO
2
-equivalent emissions and resulting CO
2
-equivalent concentrations.
{WGI, III}
Co-benefits
The positive effects that a policy or measure aimed at one objective
might have on other objectives, irrespective of the net effect on overall
social welfare. Co-benefits are often subject to uncertainty and depend
on local circumstances and implementation practices, among other
factors. Co-benefits are also referred to as ancillary benefits. {WGII, III}
Confidence
The validity of a finding based on the type, amount, quality and con-
sistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data,
models, expert judgment) and on the degree of agreement. In this
report, confidence is expressed qualitatively (Mastrandrea et al., 2010).
See WGI AR5 Figure 1.11 for the levels of confidence; see WGI AR5
Table 1.2 for the list of likelihood qualifiers; see WGII AR5 Box 1-1. See
also Uncertainty. {WGI, II, III}
Cost-effectiveness
A policy is more cost-effective if it achieves a given policy goal at lower
cost. Integrated models approximate cost-effective solutions, unless
they are specifically constrained to behave otherwise. Cost-effective
mitigation scenarios are those based on a stylized implementation
approach in which a single price on carbon dioxide (CO
2
) and other
greenhouse gases (GHGs) is applied across the globe in every sector
of every country and that rises over time in a way that achieves lowest
global discounted costs. {WGIII}
Decarbonization
The process by which countries or other entities aim to achieve a
low-carbon economy, or by which individuals aim to reduce their con-
sumption of carbon. {WGII, III}
Deforestation
Conversion of forest to non-forest. For a discussion of the term forest
and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation and deforesta-
tion, see the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and
Forestry (IPCC, 2000b). See also information provided by the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2013)
and the report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Invento-
ry Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and
Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003). {WGI, II}
Detection and attribution
Detection of change is defined as the process of demonstrating that
climate or a system affected by climate has changed in some defined
statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change. An iden-
tified change is detected in observations if its likelihood of occurrence
by chance due to internal variability alone is determined to be small,
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II
Annex II Glossary
for example, <10%. Attribution is defined as the process of evaluat-
ing the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to a change
or event with an assignment of statistical confidence (Hegerl et al.,
2010). {WGI, II}
Detection of impacts of climate change
For a natural, human or managed system, identification of a change
from a specified baseline. The baseline characterizes behavior in the
absence of climate change and may be stationary or non-stationary
(e.g., due to land-use change). {WGII}
Disaster
Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a soci-
ety due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social
conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic
or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response
to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support
for recovery. {WGII}
Discounting
A mathematical operation making monetary (or other) amounts received
or expended at different times (years) comparable across time. The dis-
counter uses a fixed or possibly time-varying discount rate (>0) from
year to year that makes future value worth less today. {WGII, III}
Drought
A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious
hydrological imbalance. Drought is a relative term; therefore any dis-
cussion in terms of precipitation deficit must refer to the particular
precipitation-related activity that is under discussion. For example,
shortage of precipitation during the growing season impinges on
crop production or ecosystem function in general (due to soil mois-
ture drought, also termed agricultural drought) and during the runoff
and percolation season primarily affects water supplies (hydrological
drought). Storage changes in soil moisture and groundwater are also
affected by increases in actual evapotranspiration in addition to reduc-
tions in precipitation. A period with an abnormal precipitation deficit is
defined as a meteorological drought. A megadrought is a very lengthy
and pervasive drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a
decade or more. For the corresponding indices, see WGI AR5 Box 2.4.
{WGI, II}
Early warning system
The set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and
meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities
and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare to act promptly
and appropriately to reduce the possibility of harm or loss
4
. {WGII}
Earth System Model (ESM)
A coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model in which a
representation of the carbon cycle is included, allowing for interactive
calculation of atmospheric CO
2
or compatible emissions. Additional
components (e.g., atmospheric chemistry, ice sheets, dynamic vegeta-
tion, nitrogen cycle, but also urban or crop models) may be included.
See also Climate model. {WGI, II}
Ecosystem
An ecosystem is a functional unit consisting of living organisms, their
non-living environment and the interactions within and between them.
The components included in a given ecosystem and its spatial boun-
daries depend on the purpose for which the ecosystem is defined: in
some cases they are relatively sharp, while in others they are diffuse.
Ecosystem boundaries can change over time. Ecosystems are nested
within other ecosystems and their scale can range from very small to
the entire biosphere. In the current era, most ecosystems either contain
people as key organisms, or are influenced by the effects of human
activities in their environment. {WGI, II, III}
Ecosystem services
Ecological processes or functions having monetary or non-monetary
value to individuals or society at large. These are frequently classified
as (1) supporting services such as productivity or biodiversity mainte-
nance, (2) provisioning services such as food, fiber or fish, (3) regulat-
ing services such as climate regulation or carbon sequestration and (4)
cultural services such as tourism or spiritual and aesthetic apprecia-
tion. {WGII, III}
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
The term El Niño was initially used to describe a warm-water current
that periodically flows along the coast of Ecuador and Peru, disrupt-
ing the local fishery. It has since become identified with a basin-wide
warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean east of the dateline. This oceanic
event is associated with a fluctuation of a global-scale tropical and
subtropical surface pressure pattern called the Southern Oscillation.
This coupled atmosphere–ocean phenomenon, with preferred time
scales of two to about seven years, is known as the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO). It is often measured by the surface pressure anom-
aly difference between Tahiti and Darwin or the sea surface temper-
atures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During an ENSO
event, the prevailing trade winds weaken, reducing upwelling and
altering ocean currents such that the sea surface temperatures warm,
further weakening the trade winds. This event has a great impact on
the wind, sea surface temperature and precipitation patterns in the
tropical Pacific. It has climatic effects throughout the Pacific region and
in many other parts of the world, through global teleconnections. The
cold phase of ENSO is called La Niña. For the corresponding indices, see
WGI AR5 Box 2.5. {WGI, II}
Emission scenario
A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of
substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g., greenhouse
gases (GHGs), aerosols) based on a coherent and internally consist-
ent set of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and
socio-economic development, technological change, energy and land
use) and their key relationships. Concentration scenarios, derived from
emission scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute
climate projections. In IPCC (1992) a set of emission scenarios was pre-
sented which were used as a basis for the climate projections in IPCC
(1996). These emission scenarios are referred to as the IS92 scenarios.
In the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2000a) emis-
sion scenarios, the so-called SRES scenarios, were published, some of
4
This glossary entry builds from the definitions used in UNISDR (2009) and IPCC (2012a).
123
II
Glossary Annex II
which were used, among others, as a basis for the climate projections
presented in Chapters 9 to 11 of IPCC WGI TAR (IPCC, 2001a) and
Chapters 10 and 11 of IPCC WGI AR4 (IPCC, 2007) as well as in the
IPCC WGI AR5 (IPCC, 2013b). New emission scenarios for climate
change, the four Representative Concentration Pathways, were devel-
oped for, but independently of, the present IPCC assessment. See also
Baseline/reference, Mitigation scenario and Transformation pathway.
{WGI, II, III}
Energy access
Access to clean, reliable and affordable energy services for cooking
and heating, lighting, communications and productive uses (AGECC,
2010). {WGIII}
Energy intensity
The ratio of energy use to economic or physical output. {WGIII}
Energy security
The goal of a given country, or the global community as a whole, to
maintain an adequate, stable and predictable energy supply. Measures
encompass safeguarding the sufficiency of energy resources to meet
national energy demand at competitive and stable prices and the resil-
ience of the energy supply; enabling development and deployment of
technologies; building sufficient infrastructure to generate, store and
transmit energy supplies and ensuring enforceable contracts of deliv-
ery. {WGIII}
Ensemble
A collection of model simulations characterizing a climate prediction
or projection. Differences in initial conditions and model formulation
result in different evolutions of the modeled system and may give
information on uncertainty associated with model error and error in
initial conditions in the case of climate forecasts and on uncertainty
associated with model error and with internally generated climate var-
iability in the case of climate projections. {WGI, II}
Equilibrium climate sensitivity
See Climate sensitivity. {WGI}
Eutrophication
Over-enrichment of water by nutrients such as nitrogen and phospho-
rus. It is one of the leading causes of water quality impairment. The
two most acute symptoms of eutrophication are hypoxia (or oxygen
depletion) and harmful algal blooms. {WGII}
Exposure
The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environ-
mental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic,
social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely
affected. {WGII}
External forcing
External forcing refers to a forcing agent outside the climate system
causing a change in the climate system. Volcanic eruptions, solar var-
iations and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmos-
phere and land-use change are external forcings. Orbital forcing is also
an external forcing as the insolation changes with orbital parameters
eccentricity, tilt and precession of the equinox. {WGI, II}
Extreme weather event
An extreme weather event is an event that is rare at a particular place
and time of year. Definitions of rare vary, but an extreme weather event
would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile
of a probability density function estimated from observations. By defi-
nition, the characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary
from place to place in an absolute sense. When a pattern of extreme
weather persists for some time, such as a season, it may be classed as
an extreme climate event, especially if it yields an average or total that
is itself extreme (e.g., drought or heavy rainfall over a season). {WGI, II}
Feedback
See Climate feedback. {WGI, II}
Flood
The overflowing of the normal confines of a stream or other body of water,
or the accumulation of water over areas not normally submerged. Floods
include river (fluvial) floods, flash floods, urban floods, pluvial floods,
sewer floods, coastal floods and glacial lake outburst floods. {WGII}
Food security
A state that prevails when people have secure access to sufficient
amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal growth, development
and an active and healthy life. {WGII, III}
Forest
A vegetation type dominated by trees. Many definitions of the term
forest are in use throughout the world, reflecting wide differences in
biogeophysical conditions, social structure and economics. For a dis-
cussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation,
reforestation and deforestation, see the IPCC Special Report on Land
Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (IPCC, 2000b). See also informa-
tion provided by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC, 2013) and the Report on Definitions and Method-
ological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced
Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types
(IPCC, 2003). {WGI, III}
Fuel poverty
A condition in which a household is unable to guarantee a certain level
of consumption of domestic energy services (especially heating) or
suffers disproportionate expenditure burdens to meet these needs.
{WGIII}
Geoengineering
Geoengineering refers to a broad set of methods and technologies that
aim to deliberately alter the climate system in order to alleviate the
impacts of climate change. Most, but not all, methods seek to either
(1) reduce the amount of absorbed solar energy in the climate system
(Solar Radiation Management) or (2) increase net carbon sinks from
the atmosphere at a scale sufficiently large to alter climate (Carbon
Dioxide Removal). Scale and intent are of central importance. Two key
characteristics of geoengineering methods of particular concern are
that they use or affect the climate system (e.g., atmosphere, land or
ocean) globally or regionally and/or could have substantive unintended
effects that cross national boundaries. Geoengineering is different
from weather modification and ecological engineering, but the bound-
ary can be fuzzy (IPCC, 2012b, p. 2). {WGI, II, III}
124
II
Annex II Glossary
Global climate model (also referred to as general circulation
model, both abbreviated as GCM)
See Climate model. {WGI, II}
Global Temperature change Potential (GTP)
An index measuring the change in global mean surface temperature at
a chosen point in time following an emission of a unit mass of a given
substance, relative to that of the reference substance, carbon dioxide
(CO
2
). The Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) thus represents
the combined effect of the differing times these substances remain in
the atmosphere, their effectiveness in causing radiative forcing and
the response of the climate system. The GTP has been defined in two
different ways:
Fixed GTP: based on a fixed time horizon in the future (such
as GTP
100
for a time horizon of 100 years)
Dynamic GTP: based on a target year (such as the year when
global mean temperature is expected to reach a target
level). In the dynamic GTP, the time horizon reduces over time
as the target year is approached and hence the GTP value
changes for emissions occurring further in the future. {WGI
Chapter 8}
Global warming
Global warming refers to the gradual increase, observed or projected,
in global surface temperature, as one of the consequences of radiative
forcing caused by anthropogenic emissions. {WGIII}
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
An index measuring the radiative forcing following an emission of a
unit mass of a given substance, accumulated over a chosen time hori-
zon, relative to that of the reference substance, carbon dioxide (CO
2
).
The GWP thus represents the combined effect of the differing times
these substances remain in the atmosphere and their effectiveness in
causing radiative forcing. (WGI, III}
Hazard
The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event
or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other
health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure,
livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources.
In this report, the term hazard usually refers to climate-related physical
events or trends or their physical impacts. {WGII}
Heat wave
A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot weather. {WGI, II}
Hydrological cycle
The cycle in which water evaporates from the oceans and the land
surface, is carried over the Earth in atmospheric circulation as water
vapour, condenses to form clouds, precipitates over ocean and land as
rain or snow, which on land can be intercepted by trees and vegeta-
tion, provides runoff on the land surface, infiltrates into soils, recharg-
es groundwater, discharges into streams and ultimately flows out into
the oceans, from which it will eventually evaporate again. The various
systems involved in the hydrological cycle are usually referred to as
hydrological systems. {WGI, II}
Impacts (consequences, outcomes)
Effects on natural and human systems. In this report, the term impacts
is used primarily to refer to the effects on natural and human systems
of extreme weather and climate events and of climate change. Impacts
generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, econo-
mies, societies, cultures, services and infrastructure due to the interaction
of climate changes or hazardous climate events occurring within a spe-
cific time period and the vulnerability of an exposed society or system.
Impacts are also referred to as consequences and outcomes. The impacts
of climate change on geophysical systems, including floods, droughts
and sea level rise, are a subset of impacts called physical impacts. {WGII}
Indirect emissions
Emissions that are a consequence of the activities within well-defined
boundaries of, for instance, a region, an economic sector, a company
or process, but which occur outside the specified boundaries. For
example, emissions are described as indirect if they relate to the use of
heat but physically arise outside the boundaries of the heat user, or to
electricity production but physically arise outside of the boundaries of
the power supply sector. {WGIII}
Industrial Revolution
A period of rapid industrial growth with far-reaching social and eco-
nomic consequences, beginning in Britain during the second half of
the 18th century and spreading to Europe and later to other countries
including the United States. The invention of the steam engine was an
important trigger of this development. The industrial revolution marks
the beginning of a strong increase in the use of fossil fuels and emis-
sion of, in particular, fossil carbon dioxide (CO
2
). In this report the terms
pre-industrial and industrial refer, somewhat arbitrarily, to the periods
before and after 1750, respectively. {WGI, II, III}
Integrated assessment
A method of analysis that combines results and models from the
physical, biological, economic and social sciences and the interactions
among these components in a consistent framework to evaluate the
status and the consequences of environmental change and the policy
responses to it. See also Integrated models. {WGII, III}
Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)
An integrated approach for sustainably managing coastal areas, taking
into account all coastal habitats and uses. {WGII}
Integrated models
Integrated models explore the interactions between multiple sectors
of the economy or components of particular systems, such as the
energy system. In the context of transformation pathways, they refer to
models that, at a minimum, include full and disaggregated representa-
tions of the energy system and its linkage to the overall economy that
will allow for consideration of interactions among different elements
of that system. Integrated models may also include representations of
the full economy, land use and land-use change (LUC) and the climate
system. See also Integrated assessment. {WGIII}
Internal variability
See Climate variability. {WGI}
125
II
Glossary Annex II
Irreversibility
A perturbed state of a dynamical system is defined as irreversible on a
given timescale, if the recovery timescale from this state due to natural
processes is substantially longer than the time it takes for the system to
reach this perturbed state. In the context of this report, the time scale
of interest is centennial to millennial. See also Tipping point. {WGI}
Land use and land-use change
Land use refers to the total of arrangements, activities and inputs
undertaken in a certain land cover type (a set of human actions). The
term land use is also used in the sense of the social and economic
purposes for which land is managed (e.g., grazing, timber extraction
and conservation). In urban settlements it is related to land uses within
cities and their hinterlands. Urban land use has implications on city
management, structure and form and thus on energy demand, green-
house gas (GHG) emissions and mobility, among other aspects. {WGI,
II, III}
Land-use change (LUC)
Land-use change refers to a change in the use or management of
land by humans, which may lead to a change in land cover. Land
cover and land-use change may have an impact on the surface
albedo, evapotranspiration, sources and sinks of greenhouse gases
(GHGs), or other properties of the climate system and may thus give
rise to radiative forcing and/or other impacts on climate, locally or
globally. See also the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use
Change, and Forestry (IPCC, 2000b).
Indirect land-use change (iLUC)
Indirect land-use change refers to shifts in land use induced by a
change in the production level of an agricultural product elsewhere,
often mediated by markets or driven by policies. For example, if
agricultural land is diverted to fuel production, forest clearance may
occur elsewhere to replace the former agricultural production. See
also Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), Afforesta-
tion, Deforestation and Reforestation.
Leakage
Phenomena whereby the reduction in emissions (relative to a baseline)
in a jurisdiction/sector associated with the implementation of mitiga-
tion policy is offset to some degree by an increase outside the juris-
diction/sector through induced changes in consumption, production,
prices, land use and/or trade across the jurisdictions/sectors. Leakage
can occur at a number of levels, be it a project, state, province, nation
or world region.
In the context of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS), CO
2
leakage refers to the escape of injected carbon dioxide (CO
2
) from the
storage location and eventual release to the atmosphere. In the con-
text of other substances, the term is used more generically, such as
for methane (CH
4
) leakage (e.g., from fossil fuel extraction activities)
and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) leakage (e.g., from refrigeration and air-
conditioning systems). {WGIII}
Likelihood
The chance of a specific outcome occurring, where this might be esti-
mated probabilistically. Likelihood is expressed in this report using a
standard terminology (Mastrandrea et al., 2010), defined in WGI AR5
Table 1.2 and WGII AR5 Box 1-1. See also Confidence and Uncertainty.
{WGI, II, III}
Lock-in
Lock-in occurs when a market is stuck with a standard even though
participants would be better off with an alternative. In this report,
lock-in is used more broadly as path dependence, which is the generic
situation where decisions, events or outcomes at one point in time
constrain adaptation, mitigation or other actions or options at a later
point in time. {WGII, III}
Low regrets policy
A policy that would generate net social and/or economic benefits under
current climate and a range of future climate change scenarios. {WGII}
Marine-based icesheet
An ice sheet containing a substantial region that rests on a bed lying
below sea level and whose perimeter is in contact with the ocean. The
best known example is the West Antarctic ice sheet. {WGI}
Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
Meridional (north–south) overturning circulation in the ocean quanti-
fied by zonal (east–west) sums of mass transports in depth or density
layers. In the North Atlantic, away from the subpolar regions, the MOC
(which is in principle an observable quantity) is often identified with
the thermohaline circulation (THC), which is a conceptual and incom-
plete interpretation. It must be borne in mind that the MOC is also
driven by wind and can also include shallower overturning cells such as
occur in the upper ocean in the tropics and subtropics, in which warm
(light) waters moving poleward are transformed to slightly denser
waters and subducted equatorward at deeper levels. {WGI, II}
Mitigation (of climate change)
A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of
greenhouse gases (GHGs). This report also assesses human interven-
tions to reduce the sources of other substances which may contribute
directly or indirectly to limiting climate change, including, for example,
the reduction of particulate matter emissions that can directly alter
the radiation balance (e.g., black carbon) or measures that control
emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, Volatile Organic Com-
pounds and other pollutants that can alter the concentration of tropo-
spheric ozone which has an indirect effect on the climate. {WGI, II, III}
Mitigation scenario
A plausible description of the future that describes how the (studied)
system responds to the implementation of mitigation policies and
measures. See also Baseline/reference, Emission scenario, Represent-
ative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), SRES scenarios and Transforma-
tion pathway. {WGIII}
Net negative emissions
A situation of net negative emissions is achieved when, as result of
human activities, more greenhouse gases (GHGs) are sequestered or
stored than are released into the atmosphere. {SYR Box 2.2, footnote 29}
Ocean acidification
Ocean acidification refers to a reduction in the pH of the ocean over an
extended period, typically decades or longer, which is caused primarily
126
II
Annex II Glossary
by uptake of carbon dioxide (CO
2
) from the atmosphere, but can also
be caused by other chemical additions or subtractions from the ocean.
Anthropogenic ocean acidification refers to the component of pH
reduction that is caused by human activity (IPCC, 2011, p. 37). {WGI, II}
Overshoot pathways
Emissions, concentration or temperature pathways in which the metric
of interest temporarily exceeds, or overshoots the long-term goal.
{WGIII}
Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ)
The midwater layer (2001000 m) in the open ocean in which oxygen
saturation is the lowest in the ocean. The degree of oxygen depletion
depends on the largely bacterial consumption of organic matter and
the distribution of the OMZs is influenced by large-scale ocean circula-
tion. In coastal oceans, OMZs extend to the shelves and may also affect
benthic ecosystems. {WGII}
Permafrost
Ground (soil or rock and included ice and organic material) that
remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years. {WGI, II}
pH
pH is a dimensionless measure of the acidity of water (or any solution)
given by its concentration of hydrogen ions (H
+
). pH is measured on
a logarithmic scale where pH = –log
10
(H
+
). Thus, a pH decrease of
1 unit corresponds to a 10-fold increase in the concentration of H
+
, or
acidity. {WGI}
Poverty
Poverty is a complex concept with several definitions stemming from
different schools of thought. It can refer to material circumstances
(such as need, pattern of deprivation or limited resources), economic
conditions (such as standard of living, inequality or economic position)
and/or social relationships (such as social class, dependency, exclusion,
lack of basic security or lack of entitlement). {WGII}
Pre-industrial
See Industrial Revolution. {WGI, II, III}
Private costs
Private costs are carried by individuals, companies or other private
entities that undertake an action, whereas social costs include addi-
tionally the external costs on the environment and on society as a
whole. Quantitative estimates of both private and social costs may be
incomplete, because of difficulties in measuring all relevant effects.
{WGIII}
Projection
A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of
quantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Unlike predictions,
projections are conditional on assumptions concerning, for example,
future socio-economic and technological developments that may or
may not be realized. See also Climate projection. {WGI, II}
Radiative forcing
The strength of drivers is quantified as Radiative Forcing (RF) in units
watts per square meter (W/m
2
) as in previous IPCC assessments. RF is
the change in energy flux caused by a driver and is calculated at the
tropopause or at the top of the atmosphere. {WGI}
Reasons For Concern (RFCs)
Elements of a classification framework, first developed in the IPCC
Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001b), which aims to facilitate judg-
ments about what level of climate change may be dangerous (in the
language of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC)) by aggregating impacts, risks and vulner-
abilities. {WGII}
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
(REDD)
An effort to create financial value for the carbon stored in forests,
offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from
forested lands and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable devel-
opment (SD). It is therefore a mechanism for mitigation that results
from avoiding deforestation. REDD+ goes beyond reforestation and
forest degradation and includes the role of conservation, sustainable
management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. The
concept was first introduced in 2005 in the 11th Session of the Con-
ference of the Parties (COP) in Montreal and later given greater recog-
nition in the 13th Session of the COP in 2007 at Bali and inclusion in
the Bali Action Plan which called for ‘policy approaches and positive
incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation
and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD) and the role of
conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of
forest carbon stock in developing countries’. Since then, support for
REDD has increased and has slowly become a framework for action
supported by a number of countries. {WGIII}
Reforestation
Planting of forests on lands that have previously contained forests
but that have been converted to some other use. For a discussion of
the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation
and deforestation, see the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use
Change, and Forestry (IPCC, 2000b). See also information provided
by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC, 2013). See also the Report on Definitions and Methodolog-
ical Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Deg-
radation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC,
2003). {WGI, II, III}
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
Scenarios that include time series of emissions and concentrations
of the full suite of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and
chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover (Moss et al.,
2008). The word representative signifies that each RCP provides
only one of many possible scenarios that would lead to the specific
radiative forcing characteristics. The term pathway emphasizes that
not only the long-term concentration levels are of interest, but also
the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome (Moss et al.,
2010).
RCPs usually refer to the portion of the concentration pathway extend-
ing up to 2100, for which Integrated Assessment Models produced
corresponding emission scenarios. Extended Concentration Pathways
(ECPs) describe extensions of the RCPs from 2100 to 2500 that were
127
II
Glossary Annex II
calculated using simple rules generated by stakeholder consultations
and do not represent fully consistent scenarios.
Four RCPs produced from Integrated Assessment Models were selected
from the published literature and are used in the present IPCC Assess-
ment as a basis for the climate predictions and projections presented
in WGI AR5 Chapters 11 to 14 (IPCC, 2013b):
RCP2.6
One pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately
3 W/m
2
before 2100 and then declines (the corresponding ECP
assuming constant emissions after 2100).
RCP4.5 and RCP6.0
Two intermediate stabilization pathways in which radiative forcing
is stabilized at approximately 4.5 W/m
2
and 6.0 W/m
2
after 2100 (the
corresponding ECPs assuming constant concentrations after 2150).
RCP8.5
One high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches >8.5 W/m
2
by 2100 and continues to rise for some amount of time (the corre-
sponding ECP assuming constant emissions after 2100 and con-
stant concentrations after 2250).
For further description of future scenarios, see WGI AR5 Box 1.1. See
also van Vuuren et al., 2011. {WGI, II, III}
Resilience
The capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope
with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reor-
ganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and
structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning
and transformation
5
. {WGII, III}
Risk
The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake
and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values.
Risk is often represented as probability or likelihood of occurrence of
hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events
or trends occur. In this report, the term risk is often used to refer to the
potential, when the outcome is uncertain, for adverse consequences on
lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems and species, economic, social and
cultural assets, services (including environmental services) and infra-
structure. {WGII, III}
Risk management
The plans, actions or policies to reduce the likelihood and/or conse-
quences of risks or to respond to consequences. {WGII}
Sequestration
The uptake (i.e., the addition of a substance of concern to a reservoir)
of carbon containing substances, in particular carbon dioxide (CO
2
), in
terrestrial or marine reservoirs. Biological sequestration includes direct
removal of CO
2
from the atmosphere through land-use change (LUC),
afforestation, reforestation, revegetation, carbon storage in landfills
and practices that enhance soil carbon in agriculture (cropland man-
agement, grazing land management). In parts of the literature, but not
in this report, (carbon) sequestration is used to refer to Carbon Dioxide
Capture and Storage (CCS). {WGIII}
Sink
Any process, activity or mechanism that removes a greenhouse gas
(GHG), an aerosol or a precursor of a GHG or aerosol from the atmos-
phere. {WGI, II, III}
Social cost of carbon
The net present value of climate damages (with harmful damages
expressed as a positive number) from one more tonne of carbon in
the form of carbon dioxide (CO
2
), conditional on a global emissions
trajectory over time. {WGII, III}
Social costs
See Private costs. {WGIII}
Solar Radiation Management (SRM)
Solar Radiation Management refers to the intentional modification of
the Earth’s shortwave radiative budget with the aim to reduce climate
change according to a given metric (e.g., surface temperature, pre-
cipitation, regional impacts, etc.). Artificial injection of stratospheric
aerosols and cloud brightening are two examples of SRM techniques.
Methods to modify some fast-responding elements of the long wave
radiative budget (such as cirrus clouds), although not strictly speaking
SRM, can be related to SRM. SRM techniques do not fall within the
usual definitions of mitigation and adaptation (IPCC, 2012b, p. 2). See
also Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and Geoengineering. {WGI, III}
SRES scenarios
SRES scenarios are emission scenarios developed by IPCC (2000a) and
used, among others, as a basis for some of the climate projections
shown in Chapters 9 to 11 of IPCC WGI TAR (IPCC, 2001a), Chapters 10
and 11 of IPCC WGI AR4 (IPCC, 2007), as well as in the IPCC WGI AR5
(IPCC, 2013b). {WGI, II, III}
Storm surge
The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the height of the sea
due to extreme meteorological conditions (low atmospheric pressure
and/or strong winds). The storm surge is defined as being the excess
above the level expected from the tidal variation alone at that time
and place. {WGI, II}
Structural change
Changes, for example, in the relative share of gross domestic product
(GDP) produced by the industrial, agricultural, or services sectors of an
economy, or more generally, systems transformations whereby some
components are either replaced or potentially substituted by other
components. {WGIII}
Sustainability
A dynamic process that guarantees the persistence of natural and
human systems in an equitable manner. {WGII, III}
5
This definition builds from the definition used in Arctic Council (2013).
128
II
Annex II Glossary
Sustainable development
Development that meets the needs of the present without compromis-
ing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED,
1987). {WGII, III}
Thermal expansion
In connection with sea level, this refers to the increase in volume (and
decrease in density) that results from warming water. A warming of
the ocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volume and hence an
increase in sea level. {WGI, II}
Tipping point
A level of change in system properties beyond which a system reorgan-
izes, often abruptly, and does not return to the initial state even if the
drivers of the change are abated. For the climate system, it refers to a
critical threshold when global or regional climate changes from one
stable state to another stable state. The tipping point event may be
irreversible. See also Irreversibility. {WGI, II, III}
Transformation
A change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems.
{WGII}
Transformation pathway
The trajectory taken over time to meet different goals for greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions, atmospheric concentrations, or global mean sur-
face temperature change that implies a set of economic, technologi-
cal and behavioural changes. This can encompass changes in the way
energy and infrastructure are used and produced, natural resources
are managed and institutions are set up and in the pace and direction
of technological change (TC). See also Baseline/reference, Emission
scenario, Mitigation scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs) and SRES scenarios. {WGIII}
Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO
2
Emissions (TCRE)
The transient global average surface temperature change per unit
cumulated CO
2
emissions, usually 1000 PgC. TCRE combines both
information on the airborne fraction of cumulated CO
2
emissions (the
fraction of the total CO
2
emitted that remains in the atmosphere) and
on the transient climate response (TCR). {WGI}
Uncertainty
A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of infor-
mation or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable.
It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to
ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projec-
tions of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by
quantitative measures (e.g., a probability density function) or by qual-
itative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts)
(see Moss and Schneider, 2000; Manning et al., 2004; Mastrandrea et
al., 2010). See also Confidence and Likelihood. {WGI, II, III}
Vulnerability
The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability
encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity
or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. {WGII}
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131
ANNEX
III
Acronyms, Chemical Symbols
and Scientific Units
132
III
Annex III Acronyms, Chemical Symbols and Scientific Units
μatm Microatmosphere
AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use
AMOC Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
AR4 Fourth Assessment Report
AR5 Fifth Assessment Report
BAT Best Available Technique
BAU Business As Usual
BECCS Bioenergy with Carbon Dioxide
Capture and Storage
CCS Carbon Capture and Storage
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CDR Carbon Dioxide Removal
CF
4
Perfluoromethane
CH
4
Methane
CHP
Combined Heat and Power
CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
CO
2
Carbon Dioxide
CO
2
-eq Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
CSP Concentrating Solar Power
DC Developing Country
ECS Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
EDGAR Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research
EJ Exajoule
EMIC Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity
ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation
ES Executive Summary
ESM Earth System Model
ETS Emissions Trading System
F-gases Fluorinated gases
FAQ Frequently Asked Question
FAR First Assessment Report
FIT Feed-in Tariff
FOLU Forestry and Other Land Use
GCM Global Climate Model
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GMI Global Methane Initiative
Gt Gigatonnes
GTP Global Temperature change Potential
GWP Global Warming Potential
H
2
Hydrogen
HadCRUT4 Hadley Centre Climatic Research
Unit Gridded Surface Temperature Data Set 4
HDV Heavy-Duty Vehicles
HFC Hydrofluorocarbon
HFC-152a Hydrofluorocarbon-152a,
Difluoroethane
IAM Integrated Assessment Model
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
IMO International Maritime Organization
IO International Organization
LDV Light-Duty Vehicles
LULUCF Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
MAGICC Model for the Assessment of
Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change
MEF Major Economies Forum
MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification
N
2
O Nitrous Oxide
NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action
NAP National Adaptation Plan
NAPA National Adaptation Programmes of Action
133
Acronyms, Chemical Symbols and Scientific Units Annex III
III
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
O
2
Oxygen
OA Ocean Acidification
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development
PFC Perfluorocarbon
ppb parts per billion
ppm parts per million
PV Photovoltaic
R&D Research and Development
RCP Representative Concentration Pathway
RE Renewable Energy
REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
and Forest Degradation
REEEP Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership
RES Renewable Energy System
RFC Reason For Concern
RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard
SAR Second Assessment Report
SM Supplementary Material
SO
2
Sulfur Dioxide
SPM Summary for Policymakers
SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
SREX Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme
Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation
SRM Solar Radiation Management
SRREN Special Report on Renewable Energy
Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
SYR Synthesis Report
TCR Transient Climate Response
TCRE Transient Climate Response to Cumulative
CO
2
Emissions
TFE Thematic Focus Element
TS Technical Summary
UHI Urban Heat Island
UNFCCC United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
W Watt
WG Working Group
WMGHG Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gas
135
1
Authors and Review Editors
ANNEX
IV
136
IV
Annex IV Authors and Review Editors
Core Writing Team Members
ALLEN, Myles R.
University of Oxford
UK
BARROS, Vicente R.
IPCC WGII Co-Chair
University of Buenos Aires
Argentina
BROOME, John
University of Oxford
UK
CHRIST, Renate
Secretary of the IPCC
IPCC Secretariat, World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Switzerland
CHURCH, John A.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Australia
CLARKE, Leon
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
USA
CRAMER, Wolfgang
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research / Institut
Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale
(IMBE)
Germany/France
DASGUPTA, Purnamita
University of Delhi Enclave
India
DUBASH, Navroz
Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi
India
EDENHOFER, Ottmar
IPCC WGIII Co-Chair
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Germany
ELGIZOULI, Ismail
IPCC Vice-Chair
Sudan
FIELD, Christopher B.
IPCC WGII Co-Chair
Carnegie Institution for Science
USA
FORSTER, Piers
University of Leeds
UK
FRIEDLINGSTEIN, Pierre
University of Exeter
UK
FUGLESTVEDT, Jan
Center for International Climate and
Environmental Research (CICERO)
Norway
GOMEZ-ECHEVERRI, Luis
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Austria
HALLEGATTE, Stephane
World Bank
USA
HEGERL, Gabriele C.
University of Edinburgh
UK
HOWDEN, Mark
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Australia
JIMÉNEZ CISNEROS, Blanca
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México / United
Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
Mexico/France
KATTSOV, Vladimir
Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory
Russian Federation
KEJUN, Jiang
Energy Research Institute
China
LEE, Hoesung
IPCC Vice-Chair
Keimyung University
Republic of Korea
MACH, Katharine J.
IPCC WGII Technical Support Unit
USA
MAROTZKE, Jochem
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Germany
137
IV
Authors and Review Editors Annex IV
MASTRANDREA, Michael D.
IPCC WGII Technical Support Unit
USA
MEYER, Leo
IPCC Synthesis Report Technical Support Unit
The Netherlands
MINX, Jan
IPCC WGIII Technical Support Unit
Germany
MULUGETTA, Yacob
University of Surrey
UK
O’BRIEN, Karen
University of Oslo
Norway
OPPENHEIMER, Michael
Princeton University
USA
PACHAURI, R. K.
IPCC Chair
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
India
PEREIRA, Joy J.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
Malaysia
PICHS-MADRUGA, Ramón
IPCC WGIII Co-Chair
Centro de Investigaciones de la Economía Mundial
Cuba
PLATTNER, Gian-Kasper
IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit
Switzerland
PÖRTNER, Hans-Otto
Alfred-Wegener-Institute
Germany
POWER, Scott B.
Bureau of Meteorology
Australia
PRESTON, Benjamin
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
USA
QIN, Dahe
IPCC WGI Co-Chair
China Meteorological Administration
China
RAVINDRANATH, N. H.
Indian Institute of Science
India
REISINGER, Andy
NZ Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre
New Zealand
RIAHI, Keywan
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Austria
RUSTICUCCI, Matilde
Universidad de Buenos Aires
Argentina
SCHOLES, Robert
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
South Africa
SEYBOTH, Kristin
IPCC WGIII Technical Support Unit
USA
SOKONA, Youba
IPCC WGIII Co-Chair
South Centre
Switzerland
STAVINS, Robert
Harvard University
USA
STOCKER, Thomas F.
IPCC WGI Co-Chair
University of Bern
Switzerland
TSCHAKERT, Petra
Pennsylvania State University
USA
VAN VUUREN, Detlef
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
The Netherlands
VAN YPERSELE, Jean-Pascal
IPCC Vice-Chair
University of Louvain
Belgium
138
Annex IV Authors and Review Editors
IV
Extended Writing Team Members
BLANCO, Gabriel
Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires
Argentina
EBY, Michael
University of Victoria
Canada
EDMONDS, Jae
University of Maryland
USA
FLEURBAEY, Marc
Princeton University
USA
GERLAGH, Reyer
Tilburg University
The Netherlands
KARTHA, Sivan
Stockholm Environment Institute
USA
KUNREUTHER, Howard
The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
USA
ROGELJ, Joeri
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Austria
SCHAEFFER, Michiel
Wageningen University
Germany/The Netherlands
SEDLÁČEK, Jan
ETH Zurich
Switzerland
SIMS, Ralph
Massey University
New Zealand
ÜRGE-VORSATZ, Diana
Central European University
Hungary
VICTOR, David G.
University of California San Diego
USA
YOHE, Gary
Wesleyan University
USA
Review Editors
ALDUNCE, Paulina
University of Chile
Chile
CHEN, Wenying
Tsinghua University
China
DOWNING, Thomas
Global Climate Adaptation Partnership
UK
JOUSSAUME, Sylvie
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
France
KUNDZEWICZ, Zbigniew
Polish Academy of Sciences
Poland
PALUTIKOF, Jean
Griffith University
Australia
SKEA, Jim
Imperial College London
UK
TANAKA, Kanako
Japan Science and Technology Agency
Japan
TANGANG, Fredolin
National University of Malaysia
Malaysia
ZHANG, Xiao-Ye
China Meteorological Administration
China
139
1
Expert Reviewers
ANNEX
V
140
V
Annex V Expert Reviewers
AKIMOTO, Keigo
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth
Japan
ALCAMO, Joseph
University of Kassel
Germany
ALEXANDER, Lisa V.
University of New South Wales
Australia
AMESZ, Bert
The Netherlands
ARAKI, Makoto
Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute
Japan
ARROYO CURRÁS, Tabaré
WWF International
Mexico
BINDOFF, Nathaniel L.
University of Tasmania
Australia
BORGES LANDÁEZ, Pedro Alfredo
Ministry of Science and Technology
Venezuela
BRAGHIERE, Renato
University of Reading
UK
BRUNO, John
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
USA
CARTER, Peter
Climate Emergency Institute
Canada
CASEY, Michael
Carbon Virgin
Ireland
CHOI, Young-June
Seoul Metropolitan Government
Republic of Korea
COHEN, Stewart
Environment Canada
Canada
CONVERSI, Alessandra
National Research Council of Italy
Italy
DING, Yihui
National Climate Center, Meteorological Administration
China
DIXON, Tim
International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
(IEAGHG)
UK
DONG, Wenjie
Bejing Normal University
China
EKHOLM, Tommi
Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT)
Finland
ESASHI, Kei
The Federation of Electric Power Companies
Japan
FISCHLIN, Andreas
ETH Zurich
Switzerland
FITZSIMMONS, Jason
Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE)
UK
GALE, David
Royal Institute of British Architects
UK
HABERL, Helmut
Alpen-Adria Universität Klagenfurt, Wien, Graz
Austria
HARNISCH, Jochen
KfW Bankengruppe
Germany
HOUSE, Joanna
Bristol University
UK
JU, Hui
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science
China
KAINUMA, Mikiko
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Japan
141
V
Expert Reviewers Annex V
KATBEH BADER, Nedal
Environment Quality Authority
Palestine
KAZUNO, Hirofumi
The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc.
Japan
KHESHGI, Haroon
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company
USA
KOSONEN, Kaisa
Greenpeace
Finland
LEFFERTSTRA, Harold
Norwegian Environment Agency (retired)
Norway
LIU, Qiyong
National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention
China
LLASAT, Maria-Carmen
University of Barcelona
Spain
LYNN, Jonathan
IPCC Secretariat, World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Switzerland
MA, Shiming
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
China
MASUDA, Kooiti
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Japan
MÉNDEZ, Carlos
Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas
Venezuela
MENZEL, Lena
Alfred Wegener Institute
Germany
MOJTAHED, Vahid
Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
Italy
MOLINA, Tomas
Universitat de Barcelona
Spain
MURATA, Akihiko
Research and Development Center for Global Change
Japan
NDIONE, Jacques Andre
Centre de Suivi Ecologique
Senegal
OZDEMIR, Eray
General Directorate of Forestry
Turkey
PALTSEV, Sergey
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
USA
PLANTON, Serge
Météo-France
France
PLATTNER, Gian-Kasper
IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit
Switzerland
POLOCZANSKA, Elvira
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
(CSIRO)
Australia
PORTER, John
University of Copenhagen
Denmark
POWER, Scott B.
Bureau of Meteorology
Australia
RAHOLIJAO, Nirivololona
National Meteorological Office
Madagascar
RAMASWAMY, Venkatachalam
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
USA
RHEIN, Monika
University of Bremen
Germany
ROGNER, Hans-Holger
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (retired)
Austria
SCHEI, Tormod Andre
Statkraft AS
Norway
142
AI
V
Annex V Expert Reviewers
SCHLEUSSNER, Carl-Friedrich
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Germany
SHINE, Keith
University of Reading
UK
SOUTHWELL, Carl
Risk and Policy Institute
USA
STOTT, Peter A.
Met Office Hadley Centre
UK
SU, Mingshan
National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International
Cooperation
China
SUAREZ RODRIGUEZ, Avelino G.
Institute of Ecology and Systematics
Cuba
SUGIYAMA, Taishi
The Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI)
Japan
TAKAHASHI, Kiyoshi
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Japan
TAKASHI, Hongo
Mitsui Global Strategic Studies Institute
Japan
TAKEMURA, Toshihiko
Kyushu University
Japan
TATTERSHALL, David
USA
THORNE, Peter W.
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC)
Norway
TOL, Richard
University of Sussex
UK
TSUTSUI, Junichi
The Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI)
Japan
URGE-VORSATZ, Diana
Central European University
Hungary
WARD, Robert
London School of Economics (LSE)
UK
WARREN, Rachel
University of East Anglia
UK
WEIR, Tony
University of the South Pacific
Australia
WRATT, David
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)
New Zealand
WU, Jian Guo
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
China
WUEBBLES, Donald
University of Illinois
USA
XIA, Chaozong
China
YAMIN, Farhana
University College London (UCL)
UK
YUTA, Sasaki
Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc.
Japan
ZHANG, Chengyi
National Climate Center
China
ZHANG, Guobin
State Forestry Administration (SFA)
China
ZHAO, Zong-Ci
China Meteorological Administration (CMA)
China
ZHOU, Guomo
Zhejiang A&F University
China
ZHU, Songli
Energy Research Institute
China
143
Publications by the
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change
ANNEX
VI
144
Annex VI Publications by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
VI
Assessment Reports
Fifth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change
Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change
Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Third Assessment Report
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report
Climate Change 2001: Mitigation
Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report
Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report
Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment
Report
Second Assessment Report
Climate Change 1995: Science of Climate Change
Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report
Climate Change 1995: Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts,
Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change
Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report
Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of
Climate Change
Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report
Climate Change 1995: Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Informa-
tion Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change
A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Supplementary Reports to the First Assessment Report
Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC
Scientific Assessment
Supplementary report of the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working
Group I
Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC
Impacts Assessment
Supplementary report of the IPCC Impacts Assessment Working Group II
Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments
IPCC First Assessment Report Overview and Policymaker Summaries
and 1992 IPCC Supplement
First Assessment Report
Climate Change: The Scientific Assessment
Report of the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working Group I, 1990
Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment
Report of the IPCC Impacts Assessment Working Group II, 1990
Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies
Report of the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group III, 1990
Special Reports
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) 2012
Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
(SRREN) 2011
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage 2005
Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System:
Issues Related to Hydrofluorocarbons and Perfluorocarbons
(IPCC/TEAP joint report) 2005
Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry 2000
Emissions Scenarios 2000
Methodological and Technological Issues in Technology Transfer
2000
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere 1999
The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vul-
nerability 1997
145
Publications by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Annex VI
VI
Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and
an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios 1994
Methodology Reports and Technical Guidelines
2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guid-
ance Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (KP Supplement) 2014
2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands (Wetlands Supplement)
2014
2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
(5 Volumes) 2006
Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions
from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Deveg-
etation of Other Vegetation Types 2003
Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-use Change and For-
estry 2003
Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2000
Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories (3 volumes) 1996
IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
and Adaptations 1994
IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (3 vol-
umes) 1994
Preliminary Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change
1992
Technical Papers
Climate Change and Water
IPCC Technical Paper VI, 2008
Climate Change and Biodiversity
IPCC Technical Paper V, 2002
Implications of Proposed CO
2
Emissions Limitations
IPCC Technical Paper IV, 1997
Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases: Physical, Bio-
logical and Socio-Economic Implications
IPCC Technical Paper III, 1997
An Introduction to Simple Climate Models Used in the IPCC
Second Assessment Report
IPCC Technical Paper II, 1997
Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate
Change
IPCC Technical Paper I, 1996
For a list of Supporting Material published by the IPCC
(workshop and meeting reports), please see www.ipcc.ch
or contact the IPCC Secretariat, c/o World Meteorological
Organization, 7 bis Avenue de la Paix, Case Postale 2300,
Ch-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland
VI
147
1
Index
148
Index
Index
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates the term also
appears in the Glossary. Page numbers in bold
indicate page spans for the four Topics. Page num-
bers in italics denote figures, tables and boxed
material.
A
Abrupt climate change*, 13, 16, 65, 73-74
Adaptation*, 17-31, 76-112
approaches, variety of, 27, 94, 95, 96
characteristics of, 19-20, 79-81
co-benefits, 17, 20, 26, 80-81, 90, 91, 98
cooperative action in, 17, 26, 29, 76, 94, 102, 105,
106
emissions reductions and, 17, 76
enabling factors and constraints, 19-20, 26, 80,
94, 95, 111
equity and fairness in, 17, 76-77, 95
finance, 30-31, 97, 107, 110-111, 110-111
first step in, 19, 80
funding gap, 31, 111
future pathways, 17-26, 76-91
interactions with mitigation, 17-18, 20, 26, 76, 77,
80-81, 90, 98, 112
maladaptation, 20, 77, 80
near-term decisions, 77, 79
place- and context-specificity of, 79-80
planning and implementation, 19-20, 26, 29-30,
31, 54, 80, 94, 95-97, 96, 98, 106, 107, 112
policy approaches for, 26, 29-31, 94, 96, 102-111
risk management/reduction by, 14, 17-19, 18,
65-67, 65, 70-71, 76, 77-79, 79, 94, 108
risks/side effects of, 17, 76, 91
risks compared with risks from climate change,
17, 19, 77
sustainable development and, 17, 19, 31, 76, 79,
95
transformation and, 20, 27, 76, 80, 96
Adaptation deficit*, 91, 95
Adaptation experience, 26, 54, 106-107, 106
Adaptation limits*, 19-20, 72, 79
exceedance of, 20, 67, 77, 80
Adaptation options, 26, 27, 76, 94, 95-98, 96
by sectors, 95-97, 98
Adaptation pathways, 17-26, 76-91
characteristics of, 19-20, 79-81
Adaptation potentials, 65, 70-71
Adaptive capacity*, 26, 77, 80, 94
Aerosols, 44, 90
Afforestation*, 28, 29, 81, 102, 112
AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land
Use)*, 28, 30, 101, 104, 108
Agriculture, 16, 29, 69, 81, 98, 102
See also Crop yields
Antarctic ice sheet, 4, 16, 42, 74
Anthropogenic emissions, 3, 4-5, 5, 8, 16, 18, 20,
44, 45-47, 45-47, 54, 63-64, 73-74, 74, 78
Anthropogenic forcings, 5, 6, 44-47, 45, 48, 48
Arctic region, rapid warming in, 4, 10, 60
Arctic sea ice, 4, 12, 48, 62
anthropogenic influences on, 5, 48, 49
observed changes, 4, 41, 42, 48, 49
projected changes, 12, 62, 74
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC), 60-62, 74
Atmosphere, 2, 3, 40, 41, 42, 47, 58-60, 82
Attribution. See Detection and attribution
B
Biodiversity*, 13, 64, 65, 67, 98, 109, 112
Bioenergy, 25, 82, 85, 86, 102
Bioenergy and Carbon Capture and Storage
(BECCS)*, 22, 23, 24, 28, 81, 82, 85, 89, 100
Biogeochemistry, 62
C
Cancún Pledges*, 23, 24, 84, 85
Cap and trade, 30, 107
Carbon cycle*, 45, 56, 56, 62
Carbon dioxide (CO
2
)
CO
2
-equivalents*, 5, 20-23, 21-24, 28, 45-46, 46,
47, 81, 82-87, 84-85, 99-100, 99, 101
emissions, drivers of, 4, 46-47, 47, 81
emissions, increase in, 3, 4-5, 5, 44, 44, 45-47,
45-47
emissions scenarios, 8, 18-19, 18, 20-24, 21-23,
28, 28, 57, 81-86, 82-86, 99, 101
emissions, warming and, 8-10, 9, 18-19, 18, 20,
21, 62-63, 63-64, 78
projections, 8, 9, 16, 63-64, 73-74, 74
radiative forcing and, 43, 44, 45
removal from atmosphere, 16, 62-63, 74
See also Emissions
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)*, 21, 23, 24, 81,
82, 89
Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)*, 22,
24, 25, 28, 82, 85, 109, 110
Carbon price*, 24, 25, 30, 106, 107, 108, 109
Carbon sequestration, 31, 101, 112
Carbon sinks*, 20, 28, 45, 67, 81, 98
Cascading impacts, 51, 52
Causes. See Detection and attribution
Certainty, 2, 37
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), 105-106,
108
Climate change*, 2-16, 40-74
adaptation and mitigation and , 17-31, 76-112
attribution of, 47-51
beyond 2100, 16, 73-74
causes of, 4-5, 44-51
comprehensive strategies for, 91
decision making about, 17, 76-77, 107
drivers of, 4, 5-96, 8-10, 9, 44-47, 47, 56-58, 62,
70-71, 81, 84
emissions reductions, effects on, 17-19, 18, 20,
56, 84-85
future changes, 8-16, 56-74
future risks and impacts, 13-16, 17-19, 18, 77-79,
78
impacts attributed to, 6, 7, 49-51, 50-52
irreversible or abrupt changes, 13, 16, 65, 73-74
limiting, 8, 17, 20, 56, 65, 84-85
risk amplification by, 13, 16, 64, 66, 77, 78
timescales, 13, 16, 62-63, 63, 73-74, 77
Climate extreme. See Extreme weather events
Climate finance*, 95, 109-110, 111
Climate models*, 12, 43, 56-58, 56, 58
confidence and uncertainty in, 56
Climate-resilient pathways*, 17, 31, 76, 77, 90
Climate sensitivity*, 48, 49, 62
Climate system*
drivers of changes in, 4-5, 8-10, 44-47, 56-58, 81,
84
human influence on, 2, 4-5, 5, 8, 9, 44, 48-49, 51,
63-64
observed changes in, 2-4, 3, 12, 40-44, 41-43,
49-51, 50-52
projected changes in, 10-13, 16, 56, 58-64, 59-61,
63-64
responses of, 62-63
timescales of change, 62-63, 63
warming of, 2-4, 3, 62-63
CO
2
. See Carbon dioxide
Coastal systems, 13, 15, 66, 67, 97, 98
Co-benefits*, 17, 20, 26, 30, 77, 78-79, 80-81, 90,
90-91, 98, 102, 103-104, 107, 109
Confidence*, 2, 37, 56
Cooperation, 17, 26, 29, 76, 89, 94, 102, 105, 106
Coral reefs, 13, 67, 68, 72, 74, 97
Cost-effectiveness*, 24, 24-25, 28-30, 77, 84-86,
85-86, 98, 99, 102, 107, 112
Costs
of mitigation, 17, 24-25, 24-25, 28-30, 84-86,
85-86, 98, 99, 102
of mitigation delays, 19, 24, 25, 79, 85, 86
See also Climate finance
Crop yields, 13, 15, 51, 69, 69, 98
Cryosphere, 2, 42, 47, 52, 62
D
Decarbonization*, 5, 78, 81, 98, 99-100
Decision making, 17, 19, 29, 76-77, 107
Deforestation*, 28, 29, 67, 83, 102
Delay in mitigation, effects of, 17, 19, 20, 24, 25,
31, 76, 77, 79, 81, 84-85, 86, 90
149
Index
Detection and attribution*, 4-8, 7, 45-51, 50-51
See also Humans
Disaster risk management, 26, 27, 31, 54, 91, 94,
95, 96, 97, 106, 111
Droughts*, 8, 15, 36, 51, 53, 69, 97, 98
E
Early warning systems*, 27, 95, 96, 97
Economic diversification, 19, 27, 30, 31, 80, 96
Economic growth and development, 64, 94
emissions and, 4, 8, 20, 44, 46-47, 47, 56, 81
Economic indicators, aggregate, 78
Economic instruments, 30, 107-109, 108
Economic losses, 53, 73
Ecosystem services*, 13, 20, 64, 65, 67, 81
Ecosystems*, 8, 13, 16, 20, 26, 27, 53, 64, 67, 74, 97
key risks, 65, 65, 66, 67, 74
management, 27, 29, 96, 97
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)*, 4, 40, 56,
60
Emissions
anthropogenic, 3, 4-5, 5, 8, 16, 18, 20, 44, 45-47,
45-47, 54, 63-64, 73-74, 74, 78
CO
2
-equivalent*, 5, 20-23, 21-24, 28, 45-46, 46,
47, 81, 82-87, 84-85, 99-100, 99, 101
as driver of climate change, 4-5, 8-10, 9, 18, 19,
44, 45-47, 45, 56-58, 62, 84
drivers of, 4, 8, 20, 44-47, 47, 56, 81
economic assessment and, 30, 79, 85, 86
future risks and, 8-16, 17-19, 18, 77-79, 78
metrics for, 23, 87-88
of non-CO
2
gases, 23, 28, 84, 87, 99
observed changes, 2, 3, 4-5, 5, 44, 44, 45-47,
45-47, 54
projections( See Emissions scenarios)
reductions, 8, 17-19, 18, 20-24, 28, 30, 56, 76, 86,
98-100, 99-101
reductions, challenges of, 20, 81
reductions, substantial, 8-10, 17-19, 18, 19, 20,
24, 28, 56, 63, 77-78, 81, 110
relationship with climate changes, 3, 4, 17, 18, 86
by specific gases, 5, 46
temperature (warming) and, 8-10, 9, 18-19, 18,
20-24, 56, 58, 62-63, 81-86, 83
Emissions scenarios*, 8, 18-19, 18, 20-24, 21-24,
28, 28, 60-61, 63-64, 74, 81-86, 82-86
baseline*, 8, 20, 21, 22, 24, 24, 28, 28, 82, 85, 99,
110
climate change risks and, 8, 18-19, 18, 73-74
mitigation pathways and, 18, 20-23, 21-23, 78,
81-86, 98-100, 99-101
overshoot scenarios*, 20-23, 22, 81, 83, 89
overview of, 21-23, 83, 83
RCPs, 8, 9, 10, 11, 16, 21, 22, 56-62, 57, 59-61,
63-64, 74, 74
risk and, 66
sea-level rise and, 16
specific sectors and gases, 28, 46, 47, 99, 99
SRES scenarios, 57, 58
standard set of, 56-58, 57
temperature and, 8-10, 9, 16, 18-19, 18, 20-24,
22, 62-63, 81
Energy access*, 30, 109
Energy accumulation in climate system, 4, 42
Energy demand, 29, 99-100
Energy efficiency, 30, 81, 110
Energy intensity, 47, 47, 94, 98-99
Energy price. See Carbon price
Energy production, 28, 28, 30, 31, 81, 99-100,
100-101, 103, 110
decarbonizing of, 28, 98, 99-100
low-carbon energy, 21, 23, 28, 30, 82, 84, 85, 94,
100, 100, 110
policy instruments, 108
Equity, 17, 76-77, 89, 90, 95, 109
Exposure*, 8, 13, 16, 20, 36, 53, 54, 58, 64, 76, 96
reduction of, 19, 27, 80
Extinction risk, 13, 19, 51, 65, 67
Extreme weather events*, 7-8, 53
economic losses from, 53
human influences, 8, 53
observed changes, 7-8, 53
precipitation, 7, 8, 10, 11, 15, 53, 58, 60
projections, 10, 11, 58
as Reason for Concern, 18, 18, 72-73, 78
risks due to, 19, 65
sea level, 7, 8, 53
temperature, 7-8, 10, 53, 60
F
Finance, 29, 30-31, 95, 95, 97, 102, 107, 109-110,
110-111
funding gap, 31, 111
Fisheries, 13, 15, 67, 68, 97
Floods*, 8, 15, 53, 67
Food production, 15, 16, 67, 68-69, 69, 97
Food security*, 13, 16, 19, 64, 65, 69, 109
Forests*, 29, 52, 67, 81, 102
afforestation*, 28, 29, 81, 82-83, 102
deforestation*, 28, 29, 67, 83, 102
Future changes, risks, and impacts, 8-16, 56-74
See also Projected changes
Future pathways, 17-26, 76-91
adaptation pathways, 19-20, 79-81
decision making and, 17, 19, 76-77, 107
mitigation pathways, 20-26, 81-86
G
Geoengineering*, 89
Glaciers, 5, 48, 56
observed changes, 5, 42, 48
projected changes, 12, 62
Global aggregate impacts, 18, 18, 72-73, 73, 78
Global Temperature change Potential (GTP)*,
87-88
Global Warming Potential (GWP)*, 87-88
Governments/governance, 17, 26, 29-30, 31, 89,
112
adaptation and, 19, 26, 54, 80, 94, 95, 106, 107
See also Policies
Greenhouse gas emissions. See Emissions
Greenland ice sheet, 5, 48
observed changes, 4, 5, 42, 48
projected changes, 16, 74
H
Heat waves*, 7-8, 10, 53, 58, 60, 69
Human health, 13, 15, 31, 51, 65, 69, 97, 109
Human security, 16, 54, 64, 77, 97
Humans
anthropogenic forcings, 5, 6, 44-47, 45, 48, 48
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, 3, 4-5,
5, 8, 9, 16, 18, 20, 44, 45-47, 45-47, 54, 63-64,
73-74, 74, 78
human activities, constraints on, 15, 19, 65, 69, 77
influence on climate system, 2, 4-5, 5, 8, 9, 44,
48-49, 51, 63-64
responses to climate change (See adaptation;
mitigation)
I
Ice sheets, 56
observed losses, 4, 5, 42, 48
projected losses, 16, 74
Impacts*, 8-16, 56-74
on all continents and oceans, v, 6, 47, 49
attribution of, 47-51, 50-52
cascading, 51, 52
of climate change, 2, 6, 7, 13-16, 49-51, 50-52,
64-73
distribution of, 18, 18, 72-73, 78
exposure and vulnerability and, 58, 58
of extreme events, 53
future, 8-16, 56-74
global aggregate, 18, 18, 72-73, 73, 78
high, severe, widespread, and irreversible, 8, 13,
17, 18-19, 56, 62-63, 64, 65, 77, 79
models of, 58, 58
Reason for Concern and, 18, 18, 72-73
risk reduction for, 65, 65
timescales of, 13, 16, 62-63, 77
See also Observed changes
Indigenous peoples, 19, 26, 27, 80, 95
Information measures, 30, 95, 108, 109
Index
150
Index
Infrastructure, 15, 26, 29, 69, 79, 94, 95
Institutions, 26, 27, 29-30, 94, 95, 96, 105, 107
Integrated responses, 26, 28, 31, 54, 94, 98, 112
International cooperation, 17, 29, 76, 102, 105,
106
Investments, 26, 30-31, 94, 108, 109, 110-111,
110-111
Irreversible impacts, 8, 13, 17, 18-19, 56, 62-63,
64, 77, 79
Irreversible or abrupt changes*, 13, 16, 65, 73-74
K
Kyoto Protocol, 29, 84, 105-106
L
Land use and land-use change*, 27, 31, 56, 96
AFOLU, 28, 30, 101, 104, 108
RCPs and, 57
Large-scale singular events, 18, 18, 72-73, 78, 79
Likelihood*. See Confidence
Livelihoods, 26, 27, 64, 65, 67, 90, 94, 96, 97
Local governments, 19, 29, 80, 106, 107
Low-carbon energy supply, 21, 23, 28, 30, 82, 84,
85, 94, 100, 100, 110
M
Methane, 4, 44, 44, 57, 84
Migration
of human populations, 16, 73
of species (See range shifts)
Mitigation*, 17-31, 76-112
behaviour, lifestyle, and culture and, 26, 27, 29,
81, 94, 95-96, 98-102
characteristics of, 20-26, 81-86
co-benefits of, 17, 20, 30, 77, 78-79, 80-81, 90,
90-91, 98, 102, 103-104, 107, 109
cooperative action in, 17, 26, 29, 76, 94, 102, 105
delay, effects of, 17, 19, 20, 24, 25, 31, 76, 77, 79,
81, 84-85, 86, 90
emissions increases despite, 54
emissions reductions and, 17, 76, 81-86, 98-100,
99-101
enabling factors and constraints, 26, 94, 95, 111
equity and fairness in, 17, 76-77, 109
future pathways, 17-26, 76-91
influence on climate change, 86
integrated approach, 26, 28, 31, 54, 94, 98, 112
interactions with adaptation, 17-18, 20, 26, 76,
77, 80-81, 90, 98, 112
national and sub-national, 106-109
near-term decisions, 17-18, 19, 77, 79
policy approaches for, 29-31, 102-111
risk reduction by, 14, 17-19, 18, 76, 77-79
risks/side effects of, 17, 19, 30, 76, 78-79, 91, 102,
103-104, 107, 109
risks compared with risks from climate change,
17, 19, 77, 78-79
warming levels without additional mitigation, 17,
18-19, 18, 77, 81
Mitigation costs, 17, 24-25, 24-25, 28-30, 84-86,
85-86, 98, 99, 102
cost-effectiveness, 24, 24-25, 28-30, 84-86, 85-86,
98, 99, 102, 107
delays and, 19, 24, 25, 79, 85, 86
distribution of, 86
economic assessments, 79, 85, 86, 111
Mitigation options, 26, 28-29, 31, 90, 98-102,
99-101
by sectors, 28, 98-99, 99, 101
Mitigation pathways, 17-26, 76-91, 98-100,
99-101
characteristics of, 20-26, 81-86
emission metrics and, 23, 87-88
Mitigation scenarios*, 18-19, 18, 20-25, 21-24, 28,
28, 30, 81-86, 82-86, 98-100, 99-101, 110
Models. See Climate models
N
National governments, 19, 29, 30, 80, 106-109
O
Observed changes, 2-8, 40-54
in climate system, 2-4, 3, 12, 40-44, 41-43, 47,
49-51, 50-52
in emissions, 2, 3, 4-5, 5, 44, 44, 44-48, 45-47,
45-47, 54
extreme events, 7-8, 53
human influence and, 2, 5
impacts of, 6, 7, 49-51, 50-52
in temperature, 2-4, 3, 5, 7-8, 12, 40, 41, 43, 47,
49, 61
Ocean, 40-41, 60-62, 97
cascading impacts in, 52
energy accumulation in, 4, 42
heat content, 5, 45, 48, 49
modeling, 56
observed changes, 2, 3, 4, 5, 40-41, 41, 42
oxygen content, 13, 41, 51, 62
projected changes, 10, 11, 16, 60-62, 67
salinity of, 4, 40, 48
thermal expansion, 42, 48, 56
warming of, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 40, 41, 45, 47-48,
49, 58, 60, 67
Ocean acidification*
impacts of, 51, 67, 74
observed increase, 4, 40-41, 45, 48
projections, 10, 12, 16, 58, 59, 62, 66, 74
risks associated, 13, 65, 66, 67
timescale of, 16, 74
Overshoot scenarios*, 20-23, 22, 81, 83, 89
P
Permafrost*, 4, 12, 16, 42, 62, 74
Policies, 17, 29-31, 91, 94, 102-111
for adaptation, mitigation, technology, and
finance, 26, 29-31, 81, 94, 95, 96, 102-111
assessing, 76
decision making and, 17, 19, 29, 76-77, 107
emission metrics and, 87-88
sectoral instruments, 30, 107, 108
sustainable development and, 90, 91
Population growth, 4, 8, 20, 44, 46-47, 47, 56, 81
Poverty*, 16, 17, 27, 31, 54, 73, 76, 90, 96
Precipitation
extreme events, 7, 8, 10, 11, 15, 53, 58, 60
observed changes, 4, 8, 12, 40, 41, 48, 51, 53, 61
projected changes, 11, 12, 60, 61
Private sector, 19, 29, 30, 80, 95, 97, 106, 107, 111
Projected changes, 10-13, 11, 56-74
basis for (models), 56, 58
in climate system, 10-13, 16, 56, 58-64, 59-61,
63-64
confidence and uncertainty in, 56
ecosystems and services, 66, 67
emissions scenarios and, 8, 9, 18-19, 18, 20-24,
21-24, 28, 28, 56, 57, 60-61, 63-64, 74, 81-86,
82-86
relative to 1986—2005, 10, 58
See also Temperature projections
R
Radiative forcing*, 5, 6, 43, 44, 45, 48, 48
Range shifts of species, 6, 13, 51, 67
Reasons for Concern*, 18, 18, 72-73, 77-78, 78
Regions
adaptation experience, 106, 106
impacts, 7, 50-51
irreversible changes, 16
key risks, 13, 14, 65, 65
mitigation initiatives, 106
temperature data, 49
Renewable energy, 22, 28, 30, 110
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)*,
8, 9, 10, 11, 16, 21, 22, 56-62, 59-61, 63-64, 74,
74
description of, 57
Resilience*, 31, 94
climate-resilient pathways*, 17, 31, 76, 77, 90
Index
151
Index
Risk*, 8-16, 36, 56-74
of adaptation, 17, 76, 91
causes of, 58, 64
from climate change, 13-16, 17-19, 18, 31, 36,
64-73, 66, 76-79, 78
estimating, 58
future, 8-16, 56-74
of geoengineering, 89
with high temperatures, 15, 16, 18, 66, 73-74, 77,
78
key risks, 14, 64-65, 65, 70-73
of mitigation, 17, 19, 30, 76, 78-79, 91, 102,
103-104, 107, 109
models of, 58, 58
new risks, due to climate change, 13, 64
perception of, 17, 19, 77
quantification of, 36, 58, 79
Reason for Concern and, 18, 18, 72-73, 77-78, 78
region-specific, 13, 14, 65
unavoidable, 19
uneven distribution of, 13, 64
Risk management/reduction*, 8, 13, 14, 17-19,
36, 65
adaptation and mitigation and, 14, 17-19, 17-25,
18, 26, 65-67, 65, 70-71, 76, 77-79, 79, 94, 108
substantial emissions reductions, 19, 20, 77-78,
81
See also Disaster risk management
Rural areas, 16, 65, 69, 97
S
Scenarios, 17-26, 56-58, 81-86, 82-86
emissions, 8, 9, 18-19, 18, 20-24, 21-24, 28, 28,
60-61, 63-64, 74, 81-86, 82-86
overshoot*, 20-23, 22, 81, 83, 89
RCPs, 8, 9, 10, 11, 16, 21, 22, 56-62, 57, 59-61,
63-64, 74, 74
SRES, 57, 58
See also Emissions scenarios
Sea ice
anthropogenic influences on, 5, 48, 49
Arctic, 4, 5, 12, 41, 42, 48, 49, 62, 74
observed changes, 4, 5, 41, 42, 48, 49
projected changes, 12, 59, 62
Sea level
extremes, 7, 8, 53
observed changes, 2, 3, 42-44, 61
thermal expansion and, 42, 48, 56
Sea level rise
anthropogenic influences on, 5, 48
contributions to, 42, 44, 74
observed, 2, 3, 4, 5, 41, 42-44, 48
projected, 10, 11, 13, 16, 58, 59-61, 62, 74, 74
risks associated with, 65, 65, 66, 67, 74
timescale of, 16, 74
variability in, 13, 62
Seasonal activities, 6, 51
Sectors, 97, 98
adaptation options, 95-97, 98
GHG emissions by, 28, 46, 47, 88, 99, 99, 101
key risks, 65, 70-71
mitigation options, 28, 98-99, 99, 101
policy instruments, 30, 107, 108
Snow cover, 2, 4, 42, 47, 48, 51, 62
Solar irradiance, 10, 44, 58
Solar radiation management (SRM)*, 25-26, 89
Species extinctions. See Extinction risk
Species range shifts. See Range shifts
SRES scenarios*, 57, 58
Subsidies, 30, 107-109, 108
Sustainable development*, 17, 31, 76-77
adaptation and mitigation and, 17, 19, 31, 76, 79
climate change as threat to, 31, 90
climate policy and, 31, 76, 90, 91
equity and, 17, 76-77, 109
future pathways, 17-26, 76-91
trade-offs, synergies and interactions, 31, 80-81,
90, 112
transformations and, 20, 80
Synergies, 19, 20, 26, 31, 80-81, 90, 109, 112
T
Technology, 20, 23, 24, 25, 26, 81, 85, 94, 95, 95,
100
policies and, 29, 30, 102, 109
Temperature
emissions and, 8-10, 9, 16, 18-19, 18, 20-24, 22,
56, 58, 62-63, 63-64, 78, 83
extremes, 7-8, 10, 53, 60
global mean surface temperature, 9, 10, 20,
58-60, 59-61
Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), 87-88
human influence on, 4, 5, 8, 9, 44, 47-48, 48, 63,
63-64
mortality associated with, 8, 51, 53
observed changes, 2-4, 3, 5, 7-8, 12, 40, 41, 43,
49, 61
observed changes, contributions to, 48, 48
observed regional changes, 49
recent trends, 43, 48
risks from high temperatures, 15, 16, 18, 66,
73-74, 77, 78
timescale of changes, 62-63, 73-74
variability in, 2-4, 3, 40, 41, 43
See also Warming
Temperature projections, 8-10, 9, 11-12, 16, 20-24,
56, 58-60, 59-61, 63-64, 73-74, 74, 83
in discontinuance of SRM, 26
global mean peak surface temperature change, 62
mitigation and, 20-25, 21-23, 81
warming to 2°C above pre-industrial, 8-10, 11, 19,
20, 22, 23-24, 60, 60, 62, 63, 74, 77, 81-82, 83, 85
warming to above 2°C above pre-industrial, 10,
11, 19, 20-21, 22, 24, 60, 60, 74, 77, 81-82, 83
See also Emissions scenarios
Thermal expansion*, 42, 48, 56
Timescales of climate change and impacts, 13,
62-63, 73-74, 77
Trade-offs, 20, 26, 31, 80-81, 90, 95, 98, 98, 112
Transformation*, 20, 27, 76, 80, 96
U
Uncertainty*, 17, 20, 36, 37, 56
See also Confidence
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change), 2, 18, 29, 36, 102, 105
Unique and threatened systems, 18, 18, 19, 65,
72-73, 78
Urban areas, 15, 31, 69, 97, 112
V
Values and valuation, 17, 19, 23, 36, 76-77, 96
Violent conflicts, 16, 54, 77
Volcanic aerosols, 10, 43, 44, 56
Vulnerability*, 8, 13, 26, 36, 53, 54, 94, 96
estimating and models, 58
reduction of, 19, 27, 80
risks and, 58, 58, 64, 76
W
Warming
of climate system, 2-4, 3, 8, 9, 40-44, 43, 47, 48,
49, 62-63
CO
2
emissions and, 3, 8-10, 9, 18-19, 18, 20-24,
21, 56, 62-63, 63, 64, 78
feedbacks and, 62
human contribution to, 4, 5, 8, 9, 44, 47-48, 48,
63, 63-64
irreversibility of, 62-63
of ocean, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 40, 41, 45, 47-48, 49,
58, 60, 65, 67
projections of, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 20-21, 22, 56,
58-60, 59-61, 63, 74
risks in high warming scenarios, 66, 73-74, 77, 78
timescales of, 16, 20, 62-63, 73-74
without additional mitigation, 17, 18-19, 18, 77,
81
See also Temperature
Water
management, 27, 31, 96, 97, 98
resources and quality, 13, 16, 20, 51, 69, 97, 98
security, 13, 67-69
Water cycle, 4, 5, 47, 48, 60
Index